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Massive Momo Shuffle May Mean More Tech-Wrecks & Bank-Beatdowns To Come

Massive Momo Shuffle May Mean More Tech-Wrecks & Bank-Beatdowns To Come As if the market didn't need more sand kicked in its eye, a rebalance of a major quant strategy could put more technical selling pressure on tech and financial names as they suffer. BlackRock’s iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (ticker MTUM) is facing its latest semi-annual rebalance, with the fund’s underlying index due to start the process next week. Momentum names have been under pressure in the last few days as Value caught a bid... Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey estimates that a whopping 75% of the smart-beta product’s holdings will be turned over in favor of sectors that gain from elevated inflation like value and energy, at the expense of technology names. At the same economically sensitive companies like banks will likely be slashed in favor of defensives like health care. “Our preliminary estimates indicate a wholesale renovation,” Harvey wrote in a note. “Momentum holdings are expected to re-align with value and take on old-school defensive traits: lower price volatility, more stable earnings, larger size, and steadier dividends.” This sector shuffle will likely lower the overall volatility of the ETF. As the following chart of sector vols shows, while an increase in Energy's allocation will raise overall vol, a reduction in Tech and Financials will cut it and adding more 'low vol' Staples and Utes will significantly lower the overall volatility in the fund. A look at the S&P's implied correlation offers some more insight. A rising implied correlation suggests the index vol is rising considerably more than the individual names in the index. But given that VIX has not been rising dramatically, this suggests a notable dispersion among the individual names (or sectors) is already occurring. Finally, we consider what happens next? Last year's rebalance followed a similar path into the shuffle, then ramped after... We could see a similar reaction as traders reach for something more 'stable'. “Post-rebalance MTUM will have a lot in common with low-volatility funds, based on our analysis, with an expected 56% of MTUM’s projected weighting falling into the lowest-volatility quintile of the Russell 1000,” Christopher Cainand Athanasios Psarofagis wrote in research last week. Is this the turning point in Energy vs Tech... just like at the DotCom Bust? But, given the relatively strong correlation with the broad market, it is likely more a relative, than absolute, bet to buy the momo dip. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 14:40.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT8 hr. 6 min. ago Related News

Goldman Is Quietly Handing Out A "Recession Manual" To Clients

Goldman Is Quietly Handing Out A "Recession Manual" To Clients Gradually we are getting to the point where the tire hits the road. Now that Wall Street is convinced that hawkish global central banks (the top risk in the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey) will spark a global recession (the second highest risk in the FMS)... ... and as a result, peak inflation is now consensus with a whopping net 68% of respondents - a record high - expect inflation rates to fall in the coming quarters... ... it seems that fears of stagflation are gradually giving way to something just as concerning: a global recession.  Of course, a global recession is not good for Wall Street business nor stock prices, which is why Wall Street was bound to stage a spirited defense against the reality that a recession has already started, at least until the NBER makes the current recession official, and is why we get defensive articles such as this one in Bloomberg from this morning: "Goldman, JPMorgan Strategists See Recession Fears as Overblown"... ... although one could be forgiven to take such pro-establishment propaganda seriously any more when a quick google search reveals farcical humor such as this from October. So realizing that most of its clients are sophisticated enough to see through its "base case" bullish, Goldman (if not JPMorgan) has already started setting the stage for what is coming, and two days after publishing a list of 20 stocks that should thrive in the "coming recession", Goldman has quietly started handing out a "Recession Manual" for US stocks (available to professional subscribers) to clients. To be sure, it's a recession which Goldman is pretty certain won't happen (if only not to piss off the Biden admin): as Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin hedges in the second sentence of the report, "our economists estimate a 35% probability that the US economy will enter a recession during the next two years and believe the yield curve is pricing a similar likelihood of a contraction." And yet, despite Goldman's best efforts to mitigate the painfully obvious endgame, the bank goes on to admit that rotations within the US equity market indicate that investors are pricing elevated odds of a downturn compared with the strength of recent economic data. One such place is the relative performance of cyclical stocks vs. defensive stocks which has declined by 17% since January (-19% vs. -2%). The relative performance of these two factors has closely tracked the level of the ISM index for more than a decade. The ISM currently stands at 55, but the relative performance of cyclicals vs. defensives would imply a level below 50, i.e. a contraction and thus, a recession. Additionally, Kostin reveals that dividend futures market implies S&P 500 dividends will decline by nearly 5% in 2023 (this matters because during the last 60 years, S&P 500 dividends have not declined outside of a recession). In other words, even though Goldman says that "a recession is not inevitable", it also admits that "clients are constantly asking what to expect from equities in the event of a recession." So what should Goldman clients expect? In its report, Goldman discusses how S&P 500 price, earnings, valuations, and sector and factor performance have fared in past recessions. And while there is a lot of information in the full report, we take a more detailed look at some of the report highlights starting with... Price: Across 12 recessions since World War II, the S&P 500 index has contracted from peak to trough by a median of 24%. A decline of this magnitude from the S&P 500 peak of nearly 4800 in January 2022 would bring the S&P 500 to approximately 3650 (11% below current levels). The average decline of 30% would reduce the S&P 500 to 3360 (-18% from today). Timing: Across the same 12 experiences since WWII, the equity market has begun to price a recession on average 7 months prior to the official start of the recession per NBER’s designation. In all but one instance, the sequence of events was the same: The market peaked prior to the recession and then bottomed prior to the end of the recession. As an aside, the 2000 recession was the only experience that departed from this pattern. Back then, the market continued to decline well after the economic recession ended, troughing a full 8 months after the recession ended and a full 30 months after its pre-recession peak. Labor Market: According to Goldman, bottom of the equity market has generally exhibited a relationship with the peak in weekly jobless claims. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has reached its local trough within weeks of the peak in weekly jobless claims. In most experiences, the market bottomed just before jobless claims reached their peak. That may be concerning because while claims just hit a 4 month high, at 218K, they have a long way to go to get back to historical average not to mention the records hit during the covid crash. Earnings: Since 1948, S&P 500 earnings have dropped from peak to trough around recessions by a median of 13%. EPS have recovered by a median of 17% four quarters after troughing. In terms of timing, recessions since 1990 provide a guide for the path of EPS revisions around a recession. During the last four recessions, the typical revision to consensus EPS estimates during the 6 months prior to the start of a recession has ranged from -6% to -18%, with a median of -10%. During the 6 months following the start of the recession, analysts reduced EPS estimates by an additional 13%. During the 12-month period surrounding the start of a recession, analysts reduced estimates by a median of 22%. Valuation: The S&P 500 forward P/E multiple has contracted by a median of 21% between its pre-recession peak and its eventual trough. During the typical recession since 1980, the index P/E multiple peaked 8 months in advance of the onset of a recession and declined by 15% between its pre-recession peak and the beginning of the recession. Sectors: During the 12 months before a recession, defensive sectors and “quality” factors have generally outperformed. Across 5 recessions since 1981, the average experience saw Energy, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities outperform the index. There is more in the full Goldman Recession Manual available to professional subscribers. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 15:00.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT8 hr. 6 min. ago Related News

Fed"s George Says Central Bank Watching Stocks, Confirms Fed Ok With Lower Prices

Fed's George Says Central Bank Watching Stocks, Confirms Fed Ok With Lower Prices Ever since the Fed realized it had made a horrible mistake by repeating - erroneously - for almost a year that inflation is transitory, and is now hell bent on crushing the same inflation it spawned by injecting trillions into the system, and which it somehow hopes to do by sparking a recession and a bear market, one Fed speaker after another has tried to convince markets that after 12 years of pushing up the biggest stock bubble in history, the Fed suddenly no longer cares if stocks crash as long as that somehow unclogs broken supply chains and eases inflation (spoiler alert: it won't). Today's comments from Kansas City Fed president Esther George were no different: speaking on CNBC, one of the Fed's original hawks (not the fake, "reformed" types like Kashkari and Williams) said the “rough week in the equity markets” was not surprising, and reflected the central bank’s policy tightening, but the turmoil doesn’t alter her support for half-point interest-rate hikes to cool inflation. “Looking at the stock market is an important price signal -  as many others are - to watch and see. This is a time of uncertainty. It’s been a rough week in the equity markets” she said, adding that "what we are looking for is the transmission of our policy through markets understanding, and that tightening should be expected,” George told CNBC. “It is one of the avenues through which tighter financial conditions will emerge.” This was just the latest confirmation that the Fed views a slumping market as one of the direct pathways to achieving some disinflationary outcome, and as such, anyone hoping for a quick bounce in stocks here is literally "fighting the Fed", at least until such time as the Fed realizes it has sparked a deep recession and scramble to reverse its tightening policies, just like it did in late 2018. “What we’re looking for is the transmission of our policy through markets understanding and that tightening should be expected. It is not aimed at the equity markets in particular but I think it is one of the avenues through which tighter financial conditions will emerge” George then added that "right now, inflation is too high and we will need to make a series of rate adjustments to bring that down,” she said. “We do see financial conditions beginning to tighten so I think that’s something we’ll have to watch carefully. It’s hard to know how much will be needed.” As noted above, George’s dissents on policy in the past have placed her on the hawkish wing of the FOMC, though recently she’s been more of a centrist. A policy voter in 2022, she pushed back on the need to raise rates by bigger increments than have already been signaled. “I am very comfortable right now doing 50 basis points,” George said, adding that plans to shrink the Fed’s $8.9 trillion balance sheet will contribute to a tighter policy. “Moving deliberately, making sure we stay on course to get some of those rate increases into the economy and then watch how that is unfolding is going to be really the focus of my attention.” ‘’I think we are good at 50 basis points,” she added. “I would have to see something very different to say we need to go further than that... For me, what’s more important is at what point will we see inflation level out and then begin to decelerate,” she said. “That I think will tell us something about where we need to go with monetary policy.” To be sure, nothing earthshattering above, and largely in line with what consensus now views as a Fed Call rather than a Put. And yet, in his morning comment on George's remarks, Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes that while George is not overly concerned about market behavior and consumer outlook relative to the “now” focus on the need to move inflation lower, her comments confirm that they are “watching” FCI impact here: George says "that tightening should be expected" when asked about whether the Fed wants stock markets to be weaker. She says they will know when "enough is enough" when inflation moves lower, noting that inflation remains too high and needs to move lower. George also says "trade offs are starting to emerge" for consumer spending because of high food and fuel costs, which should feed through the data. But she does not suggest this is a reason to back off the Fed's tightening plans. "It's hard to know how much will be needed" in terms of tightening financial conditions but she described the recent activity as the "beginning" of tightening financial conditions. This, as McElligott notes, is a pile-on to yesterday, "where the realization that the Fed (Powell and “dove” Evans!) were telling-us that they are planning on getting to ‘neutral’ before Year-end…and likely then immediately rolling into ‘restrictive’ territory via incremental 25bps hikes from there until inflation is “killed dead” down to target — recession be damned — truly “cracked” risk-assets." When this “realization” happened to overlap with a sentiment wipeout from “Consumer” bellwethers WMT and TGT with regard to the status-check of the “bulletproof” American Consumer (and particularly, the low-end) which, instead, is now showing signs of deterioration at least in-part due to the Fed’s inaction of Inflation…it was simply too much to bear. As the Nomura strategist concludes, this is not simply the “stretched consumer” story on account of food and energy inflation in-and-of-itself. This is also the comeuppance of the “COVID bullwhip” effect which so many had anticipated, as all that “pent-up demand release,” over-ordering, double-booking and paying through the nose for transports into the empty shelves hysteria after the Vaccine economic “unclenching,” against Consumers who were flush with savings and stimulus….into now, what has become the “out” -trade, the “come to jesus moment” thereafter, as the aforementioned and suddenly weakened Consumer (especially with the Stimmies “out” of the system); who is having to be more discriminate with the spending—is “real time” down-shifting. In short, the Fed may not care about markets right now, but consumers do, and once employment, housing and prices all crack, the Fed will scramble to put the tightening genie back in the bottle. If 2019 is any indication, we will go from rate cuts, to "not QE", to QE in roughly one year. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 11:45.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT11 hr. 20 min. ago Related News

Major NATO War Games Set To Begin Miles From Russian Base

Major NATO War Games Set To Begin Miles From Russian Base.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT20 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

European Auto Sales Plunge 20% In April, Extending 10 Month Losing Streak

European Auto Sales Plunge 20% In April, Extending 10 Month Losing Streak In an ominous sign for the auto industry overseas, new vehicle sales in Europe shrank by 20% - falling for the 10th month in a row - according to a Wednesday morning Bloomberg wrap up.  Registrations for April fell 20% to 830,447 vehicles, the report noted. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association noted that it was the steepest decline this year. Year to date, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts Index is down 16%. Stellantis suffered the worst in April, with a 31% drop. Names like Mercedes-Benz Group, BMW, Volkswagen, Renault and Volvo will also be on watch heading into the back end of this week.  The cause of the slumping sales continues to be supply chain woes, though a strapped consumer in a rising rate environment may also likely contribute to tightening going forward. The losing streak continues months after Goldman had opined that European automakers had already priced in a "stressed" scenario. The Stoxx 600 Auto and Parts Index was around the same level back in March and appears to be consolidating since then. The bank had predicted that energy inflation wouldn't have a "material impact" on COGS and that impacts of energy prices were "low at this point". The bank still cut its EBIT estimates by 2%/4% and 14%/11% on average for 2022/23 for carmakers.  Despite cuts, the bank said back in March that auto names like BMW and Stellantis “do not look expensive even under our stress scenario”. In March, we also highlighted when Volkswagen's CEO said that the Ukrainian war could be worse for European autos than Covid was: "The interruption to global supply chains could lead to huge price increases, scarcity of energy and inflation," Herbert Diess, chief executive of the German carmaker, told the Financial Times. "It could be very risky for the European and German economies." Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 02:45.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT20 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

California Church Shooting Suspect Had Ties To CCP Nationalist Front Group

California Church Shooting Suspect Had Ties To CCP Nationalist Front Group Authored by Mary Hong via The Epoch Times, The man charged with killing one person and injuring five others after a Taiwanese service at Geneva Presbyterian Church in Laguna Woods, California, was once a member of a U.S.-based group controlled by the Chinese Communist Party. Shooting suspect David Chou on May 16, 2022. (Orange County Sheriff's Department via AP) The Orange County Sheriff’s Department said the shooting by the alleged gunman, 68-year-old David Wenwei Chou of Las Vegas, was “a politically motivated hate incident.” Sheriff Don Barnes said the suspect “was upset about political tensions between China and Taiwan.” Barnes also indicated that the suspect, who wasn’t a regular attendee and had no known ties or affiliation with the church, secured the doors within the church with chains and tried to disable the locks with superglue before he opened fire. Chou has been charged with one felony count of murder and five felony counts of attempted murder, according to the sheriff’s department. Dr. John Cheng, a 52-year-old family practice physician, was killed when he charged the gunman in an attempt to disarm him. Ties to the CCP’s United Front Chou, a native of Taiwan, has close ties to the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification (CCPPNR), an entity under Beijing’s United Front Work Department (UFWD), a powerful Chinese Communist Party (CCP) agency charged with overseeing foreign influence operations. On April 2, 2019, the CCPPNR established a Las Vegas chapter, with Chou as one of the directors. He made a presentation with a banner calling for the “eradication of pro-independence demons” on that day, Radio Free Asia reported. The CCPPNR was founded by the CCP in 1988. Its primary mission, as stated on its website, is countering separatist movements such as those calling for Taiwan’s independence. The CCP considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, even though the regime has never ruled the self-governed island. The CCPPNR has at least 200 chapters in 90 countries, including 33 U.S. chapters that are registered under somewhat different names, but carrying the same slogan of “peaceful reunification,” according to a 2018 report by the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission (pdf). A 2018 Jamestown Foundation report also indicated that the CCPPNR has served to mobilize overseas Chinese communities in support of the CCP’s policies. The Chinese regime is using Confucius as a cover for infiltration and propaganda. (Frederic Brown/AFP/Getty Images) Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a 2020 statement that the UFWD is the CCP organ “tasked with co-opting and neutralizing threats to the party’s rule and spreading its influence and propaganda overseas. The CCP regards this party apparatus as a ‘magic weapon’ to advance Beijing’s policies.” In October 2020, the United States designated the National Association for China’s Peaceful Unification, the U.S. branch of the CCPPNR, as a foreign mission. CCPPNR Las Vegas Chapter President Gu Yawen said that Chou left the local chapter in the second half of 2019. An old report containing a photo of Chou on the chapter’s founding day was no longer available on its website. When asked about the suspect’s political hatred associated with the political tensions between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, CCP Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin defined the incident as an immigrant and domestic gun violence issue on U.S. soil. Condemnation Barnes said Cheng charged at the suspect and attempted to disarm him before he was fatally wounded, buying time for other witnesses to subdue the shooter. “Without the actions of Dr. Cheng, [there] is no doubt that there would be numerous additional victims in this crime,” he said. Taiwan’s official representative in Los Angeles, Louis M. Huang, condemned the act of hate and violence, expressed his condolences to the families of the victims, and said assistance to the victims’ families is already on the way. He told the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times that whether in Taiwan or abroad, most Taiwanese are compatible with each other and care about each other. “Respect each other, rule of law, is what’s shared in Taiwan,” Huang said. Many Taiwanese commentators also described the incident as the indiscriminate killing of Taiwanese civilians, a result of the ideological war of hate that the CCP has spread around the world. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen also offered her sincere condolences on Cheng’s death and her hopes for a prompt recovery of those who were injured in the shooting. “Violence is never the answer,” she posted on Twitter. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/18/2022 - 22:05.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT22 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

Will The Buffalo Shooting Thaw Biden"s Frozen Gun Control Agenda?

Will The Buffalo Shooting Thaw Biden"s Frozen Gun Control Agenda?.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT22 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

Day 2 Rundown Of The Michael Sussmann Trial

Day 2 Rundown Of The Michael Sussmann Trial Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary, Day 2 of the Michael Sussmann trial started with some housekeeping. Here are the rulings of note: Robby Mook, who has a scheduled vacation in Spain, will testify on Friday. He’s a defense witness. Evidence of Steele’s meetings with Sussmann and Fusion GPS in July 2016, and his tasking to conduct research on Alfa Bank, according to the judge, “can come in.” The judge observed they are “relevant to Mr. Sussmann’s activities for the campaign and his attorney-client relationship, as far as it went, with the campaign as it relates to Alfa-Bank.” Onto the witnesses. We start with the short testimony of Deborah Fine. Fine began working for the Hillary Clinton Campaign (aka Hillary for America) as “one of several deputy general counsels” in May 2016. She answered to Marc Elias, the campaign’s general counsel. After being presented with calendar entries confirming her daily calls with Fusion GPS, she testified that she worked with them as “part of my work for the campaign.” In fact, she regularly interacted with Glenn Simpson and co-founder Peter Fritsch. Fine conceded that Fusion GPS were seemingly free to conduct research on their own, stating she “personally didn’t direct them” to accomplish specific tasks. On cross, she admitted she didn’t now if Marc Elias spoke to anyone else at the Clinton Campaign about the activities of Fusion GPS. She was out of the loop regarding efforts to bring the Alfa Bank allegations to the NY Times or to the FBI. Testimony of Laura Seago Laura Seago worked with Fusion GPS back in 2016, where she reported directly to Fritsch and Simpson. She has been granted immunity by the Special Counsel for her testimony. She understood Marc Elias to be the Fusion GPS contact for the Clinton Campaign. Seago stated she was present at a summer 2016 meeting with “Mr. Elias, my colleague Peter Fritsch from Fusion GPS, Mr. Sussmann, and Mr. Sussmann’s client Rodney Joffe.” As to the nature of that meeting: “The general purpose, to the best of my recollection, was to discuss allegations of communications between the Trump organization and Alfa-Bank.” Once the Alfa Bank allegations were developed, Seago met with journalist Franklin Foer (who would write the October 31, 2016 Alfa Bank article in Slate). The purpose of that meeting was to discuss “the allegations of communication between the Trump Organization and Alfa-Bank.” They sold Foer on the Alfa Bank data at that meeting, telling him there were “highly credible computer scientists who seemed to think that these allegations were credible.” These “credible computer scientists” would ultimately be cited in Foer’s article. She admitted that Fusion GPS did nothing to validate the DNS records - something she said was “beyond my capabilities.” Seago was walked-through a number of e-mails she had with Joffe and other members of Fusion GPS. Some of these were privileged (the Joffe e-mails) so the Special Counsel was unable to discuss with Seago the contents. However, she did know about contents of the Joffe e-mails generally: Finally, she admitted to understanding whose interests were served by planting the Alfa Bank story. Now we get to Marc Elias. Elias meet weekly with Fusion GPS at his office. Typically Peter Fritsch and Glenn Simpson would be in attendance. Generally, those meetings involved discussions of Elias’s “needs” and Fusion GPS’s “work” - which included what Elias described as the “unusual connections” the Trump Campaign had with Russia. They would also report to Elias on their findings related to Trump during the election. Notably, Elias mentioned Jake Sullivan as someone at the Clinton Campaign who knew about the Trump/Russia research (though there is uncertainty as to whether Sullivan knew about Fusion’s activities). Elias would give the campaign these updates. A brief aside: Jake Sullivan’s wife is Margaret Goodlander - who serves as counsel to Attorney General Merrick Garland. We understand that she has not recused herself from anything having to do with the Special Counsel’s investigation. We further understand that Goodlander is keeping close tabs on Durham’s investigation. We’ll report on that down the road… Anyway, Elias also testified that the Clinton Campaign paid them (Perkins Coie) a “flat fee” for their legal services. Why is this important? Because it explains why Sussmann would block bill the Clinton Campaign (see tweet below). (“Block billing” is having a multi-hour entry with a generalized description. Example: “6.5 hours on confidential project.) For flat fee work, attorneys are generally allowed block billing because the client isn’t paying the hourly rate. Proceedings have resumed with more of Elias being queried on billing records that show Sussmann toiling on a "confidential project." July 29, 2016, $4,455 for 5.3 hours, and Aug. 12, 2016, $1,252 for 1.5 hours on “confidential meetings with M. Elias, others.” #SussmannTriaL . — John Haughey (@JFHaughey58) May 18, 2022 The Special Counsel then walked Elias through a number of billing entries/emails from and involving Sussmann. These included meetings with Elias, meetings with Joffe, and Fusion - and involved “the Alfa-Bank allegations.” That concludes the morning session. We’ll update this post once we receive the afternoon transcript…   Tyler Durden Wed, 05/18/2022 - 22:45.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT22 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

Is The Housing Crash Starting?

Is The Housing Crash Starting? Last week, we shared extensive empirical evidence that the US housing market is starting to crack when we quoted regional managers from John Burns Real Estate Consulting, all of whom agreed on one (or more) of three things: i) Demand is slowing, namely entry-level due to payment shock; ii) Investors are pulling back; and iii) Ripple effect of rising rates starting to hit move-up market. Here are some excerpts: Dallas builder: “Interest lists are shrinking or buyers are truly pausing.” Houston builder: “Many first-time buyers simply no longer qualify with the increase in interest rates, as their debt-to-income ratio gets out of whack.” San Antonio builder: “Traffic has been cut in half since the hike in rates.” Raleigh builder: “Investor activity has slowed dramatically.” Provo builder: “Investors are evaluating the investment more critically than in the past.” Washington DC builder: “Traffic half what it was in March. Worried about first time buyers. Many fewer REAL buyers than number of people collected on interest list last 6 months. Certainly more attempts [from buyers] to negotiate.” Seattle builder: “Pause by a large population of buyers. To achieve our desired [sales] pace, we had to make price adjustments. Rates starting to knock people out of qualification.” Needless to say, a housing crash would be a bad thing for the US economy for which the housing sector is of paramount importance: a house is usually the biggest asset in American’s savings, comprises a large chunk of the labor force, and is a large contributor to inflation indices. That's precisely why the Fed, hell bent on tipping the US economy into a recession as fast as possible to reverse inflation, would want nothing more than a housing recession. But what if Powell instead gets a housing crash on par with 2007? If that's what is coming, we may be able to sniff it out soon in this big week for housing data in a US housing market which has been, until now, red hot. As DB's Jim Reid writes, today’s data showed that building remains strong, with houses under construction hitting an all time high, even if pending home sales tumbled as did mortgage applications. Tomorrow it gets even more interesting: on Thursday morning we get a look at how new home construction translates to sales, which, given the precipitous climb in mortgage rates, could start facing some demand destruction. Which brings us to today's Chart of the Day from Reid, which shows that mortgage rates have taken off with the Fed’s pivot, and the post-Covid boom in existing home sales has started to wobble. Meanwhile, consensus expectations marked by the X show they will decline further tomorrow. If the chart is correct, Reid warns that "it will be a very painful few months ahead" (for homeowners, not so much for investors as the stock market will sniff out the coming recession and soar, as it frontruns the Fed's next easing). Of course, the bulls will still point to the strong fundamentals which underly housing: like other sectors, there is a big supply versus demand imbalance as inventories available for sale are still near historic lows, labor in the construction sector is constrained with immigration down, and millennials are aging into their peak earning and home-buying years. All while consumer balance sheets are strong. So, as Reid concludes rhetorically, will the Fed need to lift rates such that mortgages are far above levels most home buyers have grown accustomed to, ultimately slowing blistering price growth? Or will the cracks appear much sooner (spoiler alert: yes). One thing is certain: Housing, and its fate, will serve as the earliest guide to the Fed, rates and the US economy. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/18/2022 - 23:05.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT22 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

Missouri Bill Prevents Doctors Being Disciplined If They Prescribe Ivermectin Or Hydroxychloroquine

Missouri Bill Prevents Doctors Being Disciplined If They Prescribe Ivermectin Or Hydroxychloroquine Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Missouri lawmakers passed legislation that prevents state licensing boards from disciplining doctors who prescribe ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. Missouri Gov. Mike Parson signs a bill in Jefferson City, Mo., on May 24, 2019. (Summer Balentine/AP Photo) Sponsored by Rep. Brenda Kay Shields (R-Mo.), HB 2149 also bars pharmacists from questioning doctors or disputing patients regarding the usage of such drugs and their efficacy. With a convincing 130–4 vote in the House, HB 2149 passed both chambers on May 12 and currently heads to the office of Gov. Mike Parson to be potentially signed into law. “The board shall not deny, revoke, or suspend, or otherwise take any disciplinary action against, a certificate of registration or authority, permit, or license required by this chapter for any person due to the lawful dispensing, distributing, or selling of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets for human use in accordance with prescriber directions,” reads the draft of the bill (pdf). It adds, “A pharmacist shall not contact the prescribing physician or the patient to dispute the efficacy of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets for human use unless the physician or patient inquires of the pharmacist about the efficacy of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets.” Critics of the bill have noted that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not given approval for usage of the drugs. Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine have been divisive drugs and politically polarized throughout the pandemic. “But, nevertheless, the Missouri legislature has chosen to ‘own the libs’ by issuing a gag order against every pharmacist in this state from offering their medical opinion on taking either one of those medications—even if it could kill their patient,” wrote former Democratic nominee Lindsey Simmons in a May 12 Twitter post. Although 22 countries across the world have approved the use of ivermectin in treating COVID-19, the FDA maintains that the current data show the drug to be ineffective. Large doses can be dangerous, it says. A recent study published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases analyzed a national federated database of adults that compared ivermectin with the FDA-approved COVID-19 medication, remdesivir. “After using propensity score matching and adjusting for potential confounders, ivermectin was associated with reduced mortality vs remdesivir,” researchers wrote. “To our knowledge, this is the largest association study of patients with COVID-19, mortality, and ivermectin.” According to The Associated Press, Missouri state Rep. Patty Lewis, a Democrat, agreed to the bill to satisfy a group of conservatives in the Senate. She added that the bill will not change anything significantly as medical boards do not engage in punishing doctors who prescribe drugs legally. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/18/2022 - 23:25.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT22 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

These Companies Had The Most Patents Granted In 2021

These Companies Had The Most Patents Granted In 2021 Companies around the world invest billions in R&D to provide cutting-edge innovation to their products and services. In order to protect these investments, companies apply for patents. Therefore, as Visual Capitalist's Raul Amoros explains below, the number of utility patents a company is granted can be considered a rough measure of its level of innovation. Every year, the Patent 300 List identifies America’s most innovative companies within the intellectual property space by analyzing the patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). In 2021, the USPTO granted a total of 327,798 utility patents, down 7% from the previous year. Let’s take a look at which companies generated the most patents in 2021. For 29 consecutive years, IBM has led U.S. companies in the number of patents received annually. In 2021, the company received 8,540 patents, a 9% decline from the previous year. IBM’s innovations are focused on solving major global challenges, and cover areas such as sustainable growth, climate change, and preventing future pandemics, as well as initiatives enabling food and energy security. They aim to address these problems through a blend of high-performance computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing. One of IBM’s most noteworthy innovations in 2021 was their new quantum processor called Eagle, which broke the 100-qubit barrier to bring quantum computing into a new era. This processor has the ability to solve problems that classical computers can’t, giving it the potential to bring real-world benefits to different fields from renewable energy to finance and more. Samsung: A Close Second Innovator Samsung Electronics is one of the biggest innovators over the last decade. In 2021, the company got 8,517 patents granted by the USPTO, a close second to IBM. The company’s patent-winning innovations take place in several areas, including virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR), artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), 5G technologies, and autonomous driving. The Technology Sector Dominates Utility Patents Unsurprisingly, out of the top 25 companies with the most patents granted in 2021, 16 of them belong to the technology sector. However, utility patents are not only limited to tech companies. In fact, companies from all sectors apply for patents every year. Patents are great assets for companies since they give them exclusive commercial rights for their inventions and protect them from competition. This is one of the main reasons we see companies getting thousands of new patents every year. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/18/2022 - 23:45.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT22 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

Get Ready To Be Muzzled: The Coming War On So-Called "Hate Speech"

Get Ready To Be Muzzled: The Coming War On So-Called 'Hate Speech' Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute, “Whoever would overthrow the liberty of a nation must begin by subduing the freedom of speech.” - Benjamin Franklin Beware of those who want to monitor, muzzle, catalogue and censor speech. Especially be on your guard when the reasons given for limiting your freedoms end up expanding the government’s powers. In the wake of a mass shooting in Buffalo, NY, carried out by an 18-year-old gunman in military gear allegedly motivated by fears that the white race is in danger of being replaced, there have been renewed calls for social media monitoring, censorship of flagged content that could be construed as dangerous or hateful, and limitations on free speech activities, particularly online. As expected, those who want safety at all costs will clamor for more gun control measures (if not at an outright ban on weapons for non-military, non-police personnel), widespread mental health screening of the general population and greater scrutiny of military veterans, more threat assessments and behavioral sensing warnings, more surveillance cameras with facial recognition capabilities, more “See Something, Say Something” programs aimed at turning Americans into snitches and spies, more metal detectors and whole-body imaging devices at soft targets, more roaming squads of militarized police empowered to do random bag searches, more fusion centers to centralize and disseminate information to law enforcement agencies, and more surveillance of what Americans say and do, where they go, what they buy and how they spend their time. All of these measures play into the government’s hands. As we have learned the hard way, the phantom promise of safety in exchange for restricted or regulated liberty is a false, misguided doctrine that serves only to give the government greater authority to crack down, lock down, and institute even more totalitarian policies for the so-called sake of national security without many objections from the citizenry. Add the Department of Homeland Security’s “Disinformation Governance Board” to that mix, empower it to monitor online activity and police so-called “disinformation,” and you have the makings of a restructuring of reality straight out of Orwell’s 1984, where the Ministry of Truth polices speech and ensures that facts conform to whatever version of reality the government propagandists embrace. After all, it’s a slippery slope from censoring so-called illegitimate ideas to silencing truth. Eventually, as George Orwell predicted, telling the truth will become a revolutionary act. If the government can control speech, it can control thought and, in turn, it can control the minds of the citizenry. It’s been a long time since free speech was actually free. On paper—at least according to the U.S. Constitution—we are technically free to speak. In reality, however, we are only as free to speak as a government official—or corporate entities such as Facebook, Google or YouTube—may allow. That’s not a whole lot of freedom, especially if you’re inclined to voice opinions that may be construed as conspiratorial or dangerous. This steady, pervasive censorship creep clothed in tyrannical self-righteousness and inflicted on us by technological behemoths (both corporate and governmental) is technofascism, and it does not tolerate dissent. These internet censors are not acting in our best interests to protect us from dangerous, disinformation campaigns. They’re laying the groundwork now to preempt any “dangerous” ideas that might challenge the power elite’s stranglehold over our lives. The internet, hailed as a super-information highway, is increasingly becoming the police state’s secret weapon. This “policing of the mind” is exactly the danger author Jim Keith warned about when he predicted that “information and communication sources are gradually being linked together into a single computerized network, providing an opportunity for unheralded control of what will be broadcast, what will be said, and ultimately what will be thought.” What we are witnessing is the modern-day equivalent of book burning which involves doing away with dangerous ideas—legitimate or not—and the people who espouse them. Where we stand now is at the juncture of OldSpeak (where words have meanings, and ideas can be dangerous) and Newspeak (where only that which is “safe” and “accepted” by the majority is permitted). The power elite has made their intentions clear: they will pursue and prosecute any and all words, thoughts and expressions that challenge their authority. Having been reduced to a cowering citizenry—mute in the face of elected officials who refuse to represent us, helpless in the face of police brutality, powerless in the face of militarized tactics and technology that treat us like enemy combatants on a battlefield, and naked in the face of government surveillance that sees and hears all—we have nowhere left to go and nothing left to say that cannot be misconstrued and used to muzzle us. Yet what a lot of people fail to understand, however, is that it’s not just what you say or do that is being monitored, but how you think that is being tracked and targeted. We’ve already seen this play out on the state and federal level with hate crime legislation that cracks down on so-called “hateful” thoughts and expression, encourages self-censoring and reduces free debate on various subject matter.  With every passing day, we’re being moved further down the road towards a totalitarian society characterized by government censorship, violence, corruption, hypocrisy and intolerance, all packaged for our supposed benefit in the Orwellian doublespeak of national security, tolerance and so-called “government speech.” Little by little, Americans have been conditioned to accept routine incursions on their freedoms. This is how oppression becomes systemic, what is referred to as creeping normality, or a death by a thousand cuts. It’s a concept invoked by Pulitzer Prize-winning scientist Jared Diamond to describe how major changes, if implemented slowly in small stages over time, can be accepted as normal without the shock and resistance that might greet a sudden upheaval. Diamond’s concerns related to Easter Island’s now-vanished civilization and the societal decline and environmental degradation that contributed to it, but it’s a powerful analogy for the steady erosion of our freedoms and decline of our country right under our noses. As Diamond explains, “In just a few centuries, the people of Easter Island wiped out their forest, drove their plants and animals to extinction, and saw their complex society spiral into chaos and cannibalism… Why didn’t they look around, realize what they were doing, and stop before it was too late? What were they thinking when they cut down the last palm tree?” His answer: “I suspect that the disaster happened not with a bang but with a whimper.” Much like America’s own colonists, Easter Island’s early colonists discovered a new world—“a pristine paradise”—teeming with life. Yet almost 2000 years after its first settlers arrived, Easter Island was reduced to a barren graveyard by a populace so focused on their immediate needs that they failed to preserve paradise for future generations. The same could be said of the America today: it, too, is being reduced to a barren graveyard by a populace so focused on their immediate needs that they are failing to preserve freedom for future generations. In Easter Island’s case, as Diamond speculates: "The forest…vanished slowly, over decades. Perhaps war interrupted the moving teams; perhaps by the time the carvers had finished their work, the last rope snapped. In the meantime, any islander who tried to warn about the dangers of progressive deforestation would have been overridden by vested interests of carvers, bureaucrats, and chiefs, whose jobs depended on continued deforestation… The changes in forest cover from year to year would have been hard to detect… Only older people, recollecting their childhoods decades earlier, could have recognized a difference. Gradually trees became fewer, smaller, and less important. By the time the last fruit-bearing adult palm tree was cut, palms had long since ceased to be of economic significance. That left only smaller and smaller palm saplings to clear each year, along with other bushes and treelets. No one would have noticed the felling of the last small palm.” Sound painfully familiar yet? We’ve already torn down the rich forest of liberties established by our founders. It has vanished slowly, over the decades. Those who warned against the dangers posed by too many laws, invasive surveillance, militarized police, SWAT team raids and the like have been silenced and ignored. They stopped teaching about freedom in the schools. Few Americans know their history. And even fewer seem to care that their fellow Americans are being jailed, muzzled, shot, tasered, and treated as if they have no rights at all. The erosion of our freedoms happened so incrementally, no one seemed to notice. Only the older generations, remembering what true freedom was like, recognized the difference. Gradually, the freedoms enjoyed by the citizenry became fewer, smaller and less important. By the time the last freedom falls, no one will know the difference. This is how tyranny rises and freedom falls: with a thousand cuts, each one justified or ignored or shrugged over as inconsequential enough by itself to bother, but they add up. Each cut, each attempt to undermine our freedoms, each loss of some critical right—to think freely, to assemble, to speak without fear of being shamed or censored, to raise our children as we see fit, to worship or not worship as our conscience dictates, to eat what we want and love who we want, to live as we want—they add up to an immeasurable failure on the part of each and every one of us to stop the descent down that slippery slope. We are on that downward slope now. The contagion of fear that has been spread with the help of government agencies, corporations and the power elite is poisoning the well, whitewashing our history, turning citizen against citizen, and stripping us of our rights. America is approaching another reckoning right now, one that will pit our commitment to freedom principles against a level of fear-mongering that is being used to wreak havoc on everything in its path. Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, while we squabble over which side is winning this losing battle, a tsunami approaches. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 00:05.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYT22 hr. 21 min. ago Related News

Solid, 20Y Auction Stops Through As Yields Tumble

Solid, 20Y Auction Stops Through As Yields Tumble With the 20Y-30Y curve still solidly inverted, moments ago the US Treasury sold $17 billion in paper at a yield of 3.290%, which is well below the yield on the 30Y at 3.09%, and was above last month's yield of 3.095%, if stopping through by 0.2bps the When Issued 3.292%, the 6th consecutive stopping through 20Y auction. The bid to cover of 2.50 was a sharp drop from last month's 2.80 and was also below the six-auction average of 2.56 (it was the lowest since February's 2.44%). The internals were much better with Indirects taking down 70.6%, which while below last month's record 75.9% was the 2nd highest since the 20Y auction was introduced back in May 2020 (and naturally it was above the recent average of 65.7%). And with Directs taking down 16.4%, just below the six-auction average of 19.9%, Dealers were left holding 13.0%, also below the recent average of 14.3%, but above both the March (9.6%) and April (8.7%) auctions. Overall, a solid, stopping though auction, with the one surprise being that the auction didn't tail in light of today's sharp drop in yields across the curve. Not surprisingly, 10Y yields dropped to session lows just below 2.90% after the auction hit. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/18/2022 - 13:15.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYTMay 18th, 2022Related News

Galaxy Digital"s Novogratz Breaks Silence After Luna Collapse, Says "Crypto Revolution Is Here To Stay"

Galaxy Digital"s Novogratz Breaks Silence After Luna Collapse, Says "Crypto Revolution Is Here To Stay".....»»

Category: worldSource: NYTMay 18th, 2022Related News

I"m a teacher. The end of mask mandates is freeing, but after 2 years of complications I"m not ready to completely ditch my mask.

Skyler Gausney-Jones, a second grade teacher, says while some students embraced the change, others have remained cautious and still wear masks. Skyler Gausney-Jones has been an elementary teacher since 2017.Skyler Gausney-Jones Skyler Gausney-Jones, 26, is a second grade teacher in New York City. The end of the school mask mandate has made many students more excited and engaged, she says. But she's still cautious of potential outbreaks, and hasn't been able to ditch her mask completely. One afternoon in mid-March 2020, I left my classroom with a vague knowledge that some kind of "cough" was going around. Classroom materials remained where they were, and I sent off my second graders with a "See ya later alligator." Little did I know, I wouldn't see them for the rest of the year, and that when we did finally see each other again, it would be behind masks and plastic desk shields. Initially, the idea of working from home sounded like an answered prayerI was excited to wake up 20 minutes later and avoid a stressful morning commute. But by week two of teaching 7-year-olds via a computer screen, I was so exhausted that I began to question if I were fit to be a teacher. The pressure to make sure my 32 kids were learning and engaged for hours at a time was taking a toll on my body, both physically and mentally. Not only was I teaching, but I was also planning lessons, working through technology issues with families, and navigating tough conversations about the political climate and COVID-19. I felt lethargic and had raging headaches at the end of the day. I would try to clear my mind, but the stress of thinking about how I had to do it all over again the next day would linger through the night. In July 2020, I switched schools due to an unsustainable workload and the immense pressure put on students to do well academically, with little focus on social-emotional development. I continued teaching remotely at a new school that fall, and was one of the teachers asked to return to the building when we shifted to a hybrid model in March 2021. There, I taught approximately 15 first-graders who opted to return to school, while my co-teacher remained remote and taught the other half of our class virtually. I was glad to see students in-person, but adapting to these changes on a daily basis was anxiety-inducing As teachers, we had to diligently follow safety protocols, including strict mask rules, and make sure our elementary-age students did the same. This was not an easy task, as some students had trouble keeping their masks on and staying socially distanced from their friends. In August 2021, all hybrid and remote students and educators returned to the building. Masks were still required, and although COVID-19 tests were administered weekly, there were still breakout cases. It was inevitable. Fortunately, learning prevailed and the school was running pretty smoothly. Students were overjoyed to be with one another and ready to experience a small taste of their former lives. On March 7, 2022 the mask mandate was lifted across New York City schoolsAfter being protected from the residue of sneezes and wet coughs for so long, the hesitancy to take off my N95 mask was real. With each passing week, more students took off their masks. For some, the end of the mandate was an opportunity to form stronger relationships with their teachers and peers, and their personalities began to blossom. Others continued to be cautious by strictly socializing with peers who also wore masks, carrying hand sanitizer clipped to their backpacks, and only removing masks during lunch. Since masks have come off, there haven't been too many new COVID-19 cases in my class, but students have gotten sick with colds and fevers. We no longer offer a remote learning option, so absences have resulted in kids missing lessons. As a teacher, the lift of the mask mandate has been a double-edged swordTeaching maskless is freeing. Although I don't do it often, I sometimes remove my mask during literacy and phonics instruction to allow students to see my mouth movements and hear my voice, which helps their pronunciation. I also find my mask sitting below my chin when I'm really excited about a lesson or getting pumped up for a math test. I love to see students feed off of my energy.But knowing how quickly and often kids spread germs is still stressful. I got COVID-19 last December from an outbreak at school that infected more than half of the staff, so I still find myself keeping a distance with my students and coworkers and pulling my mask up when I'm approached. It's just become a habit. At this point, I've accepted this new sense of normalcy — masks, no masks, no masks until an outbreak, masks again, and everything in between. If cases remain low, our schools may stay mask-free, but I'm also cautious of potential outbreaks once the winter months return and flu season kicks in. It will definitely be a while before I feel comfortable retiring my mask completely, regardless of the lack of a mandate.    Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYTMay 18th, 2022Related News

Putin "sees himself as the inheritor of the tsars", says Trump"s former Russia advisor Fiona Hill

The former National Security Council advisor said because Putin had made the system dependent on him, there was "brittleness and fragility". Vladimir Putin lights a candle unveiling a huge monument to legendary Russian medieval prince Alexander Nevsky in the village of Samolva, outside Pskov, on September 11. 2021.ALEXEY DRUZHININ/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images Vladimir Putin sees himself as the "inheritor of the tsars", Fiona Hill has said. The former National Security Council advisor on Russia said Putin had made the system dependent on himself. This meant there was "brittleness and fragility" in the system because Putin was the "wildcard". Vladimir Putin sees himself as the "inheritor of the tsars", Fiona Hill said.Hill, a former national security council advisor to President Trump on Russia, told Tom Tugendhat, the chair of the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, that Putin saw himself "as part of a state and a long state history".This history goes back to the days of the tsars, the kings and emperors of the Russian Empire before the revolution that gave rise to the Soviet Union.Putin considers himself to be closer to the tsars than to "the leaders of a communist party or the secretary generals of the Soviet Union," Hill said in Parliament's Committee Corridor podcast, which was published last week.Hill said Putin had made the system reliant upon himself by becoming, similar to Soviet presidents and tsars before them, an "autocrat only upheld by the constitution and legitimised by the claim of the people in the popular sense."Hill described this a "pretty ancient structure to be frank, going back millennia". She said "Putin is perpetuating it in a major way."The system's dependence upon Putin has introduced "brittleness and fragility" to Russian society, with Hill describing him as the "wildcard" in the Russian state.The focus on Putin is the cause of the speculation on his health, she said. The system was "extraordinarily unpredictable" due to a lack of information as to what motivates Putin on a day-to-day basis, Hill suggested.Tugendhat suggested Putin was "perpetuating the link to God in some ways", an assessment Hill agreed with.Hill said Putin has weaponized the Russian Orthodox church, a strategy she said is "pulled straight out of the pages of the 1840s and 50s" when it was used by Tsar Nicholas I to create "official nationality", shaping and defining the nation state around a triad of "the autocracy, Russian orthodoxy and the people".Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYTMay 18th, 2022Related News

How to write a standout résumé as a real estate agent, according to 4 industry experts

Insider spoke with four real estate veterans to ask their advice on crafting a strong CV to apply for a job as a real estate agent. Having a stellar CV can make a big difference in the competitive real estate industry.SDI Productions/Getty Images Insider asked 4 real estate experts for their best tips for writing a real estate agent résumé.  Broker Kris Lippi recommended leading with a brief summary of your successes and area of expertise. Also highlight your list- to sale-price ratio and closing statistics, said realtor Bill Gassett.  If you're a real estate professional, ensuring your résumé stands out from other candidates is key to unlocking new and exciting job opportunities in the popular industry. "When you're looking for positions as an estate agent, your CV acts as your first impression to recruiters, demonstrating your ability to perform in the role," Andrew Fennel, the director at StandOut CV and a former recruiter for major companies including Deloitte, EasyJet, Barclays, and Mercedes, told Insider.There are certain rules of thumb that remain relevant for an industry-specific CV, Fennell said: Keep your résumé to two pages maximum and ensure the format is clear, simple, and easy to read. Along with essential information like your experience and qualifications, Fennel added it's also important to include all relevant license and registration details. Insider spoke with Fennell and three other real estate professionals to ask for their top tips for those in the industry looking to update their professional real estate CV. Here's what they said.1. Open with a brief summary of your achievements Recruiters deal with a massive influx of applications for a job opening, so leading with a summary of your experience and achievements makes it easier for them to get a quick glance at your profile, said Kris Lippi, a licensed real estate broker and CEO of ISoldMyHouse.com. "It creates a dedicated space to highlight the information that a recruiter needs to know," Lippi said.The number of years of experience you have should be included, as well as any major professional accomplishments, said Bill Gassett, the founder of Maximum Real Estate Exposure who's been a realtor for more than 35 years. "If you're an agent who works mostly with sellers, an owner or manager may be interested in statistics such as the average days on the market and the list-price to sale-price ratio of homes you've sold," Gassett said. "These statistics speak to the agent's success at accurately pricing a home."Another headline number to highlight is your transaction count, particularly if it's strong."The average real estate agent closes around 10 to 12 homes a year. If you've averaged 25 transactions over your career, this should be emphasized," Gassett said.You should also show your key area of interest or expertise. "For example, some agents excel at working with buyers, while others would rather be listing agents," Gassett said. "Some agents have more in-depth skill sets like working with new construction homes or being a specialist in short sales."2. Quantify your successesFennell emphasized that quantifying your achievements is key. "Real estate is a sales game, so don't be afraid to shout about these numbers at the top of your résumé," he said."Writing 'reduced workload for the real estate property manager by 30%' instead of just mentioning that you assisted a real estate property manager makes your résumé more valuable," said Samantha Odo, the COO of Precondo, a Toronto-based real estate agency focused on condo developments. This will "lock in the impression that you're capable and have a firsthand account of each task your past work experience entailed," Lippi added.3. If you're new to real estate, highlight other relevant experiencesIf you're looking to break into the real estate industry, mention other past jobs that required you to have skills similar to that of a real estate agent. An agent needs to be great at sales, so if you had a sales role in the past, highlight that experience by sharing specifics — for example, that you "increased sales by 15% in four months," said Odo.Odo added it's also OK to include volunteer work if it's relevant to the job. "If you volunteered for the reconstruction of homes affected by a cyclone, you should mention it," she said. "However, volunteering to raise funds for an old-age home might not be a relevant point."All experts agreed it's a good idea to show your ties to the local area. "Most owners want an agent who will blend in well with their current agents and staff — someone who puts a positive impression on the community they serve," Gassett said.Overall, keep your résumé simple, straightforward, and focused on your key achievements and areas of expertise. Here's an example of what a real estate resume should look like, provided by Andrew Fennell of StandOut CV.An example of a winning resume for a mid-career real estate agent.Provided by Andrew Fennell of StandOut CVRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYTMay 18th, 2022Related News

Gen Z is stressed, burned out, and doesn"t plan to stop the Great Resignation

Nearly half of the youngest workers in a Deliotte survey said they are stressed 'all or most of the time.' Their top reason: Finances. Tony Anderson/Getty Images A new Deloitte report finds that 40% of Gen Zers surveyed say they'll quit in the next two years. Gen Zers, who are very stressed, are especially likely to leave customer-facing roles.  That could worsen labor shortages, as Gen Z seeks out a more meaningful work-life balance. It's an "apocalyptic" time to be a Gen Zer. Climate change is looming, the pandemic is still sticking around, and prices are on the rise. A new Deloitte survey of 14,808 Gen Zers and 8,412 millennials around the world shows just how stressed and burnt out Gen Z is — and how they'll keep powering the Great Resignation.Of the Gen Zers that Deloitte surveyed from November 2021 to January 2022, 40% said they'd like to leave their jobs in two years. Some of that may be for higher pay, or the other benefits that job switchers are racking up. But 35% said they'd leave even without another job lined up. "Overall, we saw the way we work change radically, and I think that got people to thinking, 'well, it's not only how I work, but maybe it's who I work for," Patricia Buckley, an economist at Deloitte, told Insider.Gen Zers are especially ready to leave some of the lowest-paying jobs in the economy, where some of the biggest staffing crunches have been concentrated. Almost half of Gen Zers working in customer-facing roles are ready to leave within two years, and, similarly, 48% of Gen Zers working in retail are ready to hightail it out within the same time."I think things are going to get worse before they get better," Buckley said of those industries and their labor shortages.So what can keep Gen Zers working? The top reason they chose to work where they currently are is work-life balance, followed closely by learning and development opportunities. Next up was "high salary or other financial benefits."All of that shows how the youngest generation of workers is bringing their — very fragmented — life experiences to the workplace, and changing what work means. For instance, 37% of the Gen Zers said that they rejected a job or assignment "based on their personal ethics." That's a positive development, according to Buckley.  "These young cohorts feel confident that, if you make me do something that I feel is not right for me to be doing with or without a new job lined up, I'll leave — but I feel confident that I can get something that suits my ethical system better," Buckley said. That may stem from the strains Gen Z is under. Nearly half of Gen Z — 46% of those surveyed — said that they're stressed all or most of the time. That rate is even higher among Gen Z women. The top stressor for Gen Z: Their long-term financial future. "When you look at the statistics talking about how many of both of these generations — the high proportion that are living paycheck to paycheck — that's really worrisome," Buckley said. "It's frankly more worrisome for the millennials because they're getting older, and they should be transitioning into the period of their life where you can start getting savings." Some Gen Zers and millennials have decided to simply throw in the towel on saving for the future. They've already weathered two recessions, and a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. In the future looms the climate crisis, where cities could be flooded, and water scarce, as 3.6 billion people feel the direct fallout from rising temperatures. Indeed, climate change was the second top concern among the Gen Zers that Deloitte surveyed. The result, as the New York Times' Anna P. Kambhampaty reports, is that Gen Zers and millennials are spending more now on experiences and things that bring meaning to their lives, rather than socking away money for the unknowable future.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYTMay 18th, 2022Related News

Russian soldier pleads guilty to killing an unarmed civilian, the first war-crimes conviction from the invasion of Ukraine

Tank commander Vadim Shishimarin appeared in a Kyiv court accused of killing an unarmed Ukrainian civilian. A still from a video of Russian tank commander Vadim Shysimarin, who on May 18, 2022, pleaded guilty to killing a civilian,SBU/Security Service of Ukraine A Russian solider pleaded guilty to killing an unarmed civilian in a Kyiv court. It's the first war-crimes trial from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Vadim Shishimarin conceded that the man he killed, who was riding a bicycle, was not a threat. A Russian solider pleaded guilty on Wednesday to killing an unarmed civilian in Ukraine.His conviction is the first from a war-crimes trial linked to Russia's invasion. Ukrainian officials have said thousands more cases are open.Tank commander Vadim Shishimarin, aged 21, appeared in court in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital.He was accused of the murder of a 62-year-old unarmed civilian who was on his bicycle Chupakhivka, a village in northeast Ukraine's Sumy region, on February 28.Prosecutors said he shot the civilian from an open car window.The BBC  and Reuters reported his guilty plea on Wednesday, and reported that he could face life in prison if he is convicted.Russia has denied that its army has targeted civilians.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYTMay 18th, 2022Related News

Putin ally Kadyrov admits the Russia is "finding it difficult" in the invasion of Ukraine

Kadyrov's admission was a rare one for a staunch Putin ally who has been bullish about Russia's prospects of victory in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) greets Head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov (R) in Moscow, Russia, on September, 23, 2016.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said Russia was "finding it difficult" in the Ukraine invasion.  Russian propaganda sought to portray the invasion as a triumph, but Russia has encountered setbacks.  Kadyrov's forces have played a key role in Ukraine, including a failed plot to assassinate Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, admitted that Russia is encountering "difficulties" in its invasion of Ukraine. At an event in Moscow, Kadyrov addressed the Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine, in which Kadyrov's militias have played an important role and suffered heavy casualties. In the televised remarks, Kadyrov insulted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose government has provided weapons and diplomatic support to Ukraine. Kadyrov called Scholz "schizophrenic," according to a tweet by BCC Monitoring's Francis Scarr.—Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) May 18, 2022He went on to lament the difficulties faced by Russia in the invasion."And today we're fighting not against Ukraine, against Banderites [a reference to a pro-Nazi Ukrainian leader in the 1940s], we're fighting against NATO. NATO and the West, their mercenaries are there. And that's why our state is finding it difficult," he said. "But it's a really good experience and we'll prove once again that Russia cannot be defeated." Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Republic, has been among the most aggressive Kremlin allies in the conflict, urging Russia to ditch peace talks with Ukraine, claiming to have fought on the front line, and challenging Elon Musk to a fight on Twitter over backing he has given Ukraine. According to Ukrainian officials, Kadyrov and Chechen fighters were involved in a plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the early days of the conflict. Since then Russia has abandoned plans to seize Ukrainian capital Kyiv in the face of significant losses, and concentrated on a more limited mission in eastern Ukraine. Russian propaganda has shifted in the face of defeats and setbacks. In Putin's Victory Day speech on May 9 he sought to portray the conflict as being a struggle not just against Ukraine but vast NATO forces. A former Russian military officer was openly critical of Russia's campaign in live TV remarks this week.The new tone was echoed in Kadyrov's remarks Tuesday. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: NYTMay 18th, 2022Related News