S&P 500 continued higher on very good market breadth and with bond market support, but already yesterday I announced I was looking for a NFPs facilitated setback aka daily correction preceded by relatively shallow premarket session as job creation, unemployment rate, participation rate and hours worked all showed that the job market remains tight, spurring […] S&P 500 continued higher on very good market breadth and with bond market support, but already yesterday I announced I was looking for a NFPs facilitated setback aka daily correction preceded by relatively shallow premarket session as job creation, unemployment rate, participation rate and hours worked all showed that the job market remains tight, spurring fresh bets on hawkish Fed to the delight of dollar bulls. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Today‘s analysis will be brief as things have worked pretty fine – and you know I had been very busy this week on Twitter… I‘m so glad to hear how you‘ve been killing it in the markets! Let‘s keep charting our path! Daily supports are the badly test 4,145 followed by 4,085, which the bears would like to see reached today – and I think they can get halfway there today. For next week (not meaning Monday to be clear), we have.4,225 on the upside as the most ambitious target that would provoke a battle to get overcome. Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com. Hop on my Twitter feed and go through some more of the key events shaping up this week, announced as of Tue and today. High standards, transparency and quality of service rule! Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock. So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.   Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible! Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice......»»

The U.S. added 517,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate saw a minor decrease to 3.4%, according to the latest Employment Situation Summary from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The analysis found that along with the unemployment rate, the number of unemployed persons, at 5.7 million, changed little in January. The unemployment rate… The post Jobs Report Shows Increase of 517,000 in January; Unemployment Decreases to 3.4% appeared first on RISMedia......»»

U.S. oil futures settled lower on Friday, hitting their lowest in a month. It was another rough week for oil as “cooling optimism over the demand outlook and rising U.S. stockpiles kept bears in a position of power,” said Lukman Otunuga, manager, market analysis at FXTM. The European Union is set to enforce sanctions on imports of Russian oil products on Feb. 5. “It will be interesting to see how this may impact global oil prices in the medium to longer term,” said Otunuga. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery clh23 fell $2.49, or 3.3%, to settle at $73.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Front-month contract prices settled at their lowest since Jan. 4, down 7.9% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Russia will sell 160.2 billion rubles ($2.3 billion) worth of foreign currency from February 7 to March 6, roughly triple from the prior month. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images Russia is stepping up sales of Chinese yuan as energy revenues have fallen.  The Kremlin is further drawing down its $45 billion stockpile of renminbi.  Moscow saw a decline of 54% in energy revenue in January from December.  Russia is increasing sales of its foreign exchange reserves to plug a hole in its budget as energy revenues crash.The finance ministry said Friday that it will sell 160.2 billion rubles ($2.3 billion) worth of foreign currency from February 7 to March 6. That's nearly triple the 54.5 billion rubles worth of forex sold last month.Since Russia's reserves of Western currencies were frozen after its invasion of Ukraine last year, Moscow has primarily relied on its $45 billion stockpile of Chinese yuan sitting in its wealth fund to cover budget deficits.And those gaps widened sharply after January energy revenue came in at $6 billion, which was down 54% from the prior month and 46% from a year ago.The steep fall in revenue comes amid tighter sanctions on its oil exports as well as tougher comparison from a windfall tax paid by state-run energy giant Gazprom in 2022. Meanwhile, Russia's wealth fund is on pace to lose 6.5% of its yuan holdings from January to February of this year, the report said, which is equivalent to a 310 billion yuan. Selling its yuan reserves will help Russia cover its losses for the next three years, according to a recent analysis from Bloomberg Economics. Citigroup estimates that it will cover losses for a slightly shorter period of about two and a half years.How long the reserves will last will depend on the fluctuations of the price of Russian oil, which is one of Russia's largest commodity exports. Its flagship Urals crude blend is trading around a third of what it was last year. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Russia will sell 160.2 billion rubles ($2.3 billion) worth of foreign currency from February 7 to March 6. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images Russia is stepping up sales of Chinese yuan as energy revenues have fallen.  The Kremlin is further drawing down its $45 billion stockpile of renminbi.  Moscow saw a decline of 54% in energy revenue in January from December.  Russia is increasing sales of its foreign exchange reserves to plug a hole in its budget as energy revenues crash.The finance ministry said Friday that it will sell 160.2 billion rubles ($2.3 billion) worth of foreign currency from February 7 to March 6. That's nearly triple the 54.5 billion rubles worth of forex sold last month.Since Russia's reserves of Western currencies were frozen after its invasion of Ukraine last year, Moscow has primarily relied on its $45 billion stockpile of Chinese yuan sitting in its wealth fund to cover budget deficits.And those gaps widened sharply after January energy revenue came in at $6 billion, which was down 54% from the prior month and 46% from a year ago.The steep fall in revenue comes amid tighter sanctions on its oil exports as well as tougher comparison from a windfall tax paid by state-run energy giant Gazprom in 2022. Meanwhile, Russia's wealth fund is on pace to lose 6.5% of its yuan holdings from January to February of this year, the report said, which is equivalent to a 310 billion yuan. Selling its yuan reserves will help Russia cover its losses for the next three years, according to a recent analysis from Bloomberg Economics. Citigroup estimates that it will cover losses for a slightly shorter period of about two and a half years.How long the reserves will last will depend on the fluctuations of the price of Russian oil, which is one of Russia's largest commodity exports. Its flagship Urals crude blend is trading around a third of what it was last year. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Filings analysed by Bloomberg showed BlackRock was one of the biggest known holders of the embattled group's $8 billion in dollar-derived debt. BlackRock has one of the biggest known exposures to Adani's dollar debt, per Bloomberg.REUTERS/Eric Thayer The world's biggest asset manager BlackRock holds over $100 million in Adani dollar bonds, per Bloomberg. It's one of the biggest holdings among the 200 or so institutions with exposure to the Indian conglomerate. Shares in Adani Group companies have lost over $100 billion in value since a US short seller's fraud allegations. BlackRock has more than $100 million tied up in Adani Group's dollar bonds, which have come under intense scrutiny since a US short seller's scathing research note on the Indian conglomerate sparked a rout in its stocks.Filings to the SEC show the world's biggest asset manager has one of the biggest known exposures to Adani's estimated $8 billion in US currency notes, Bloomberg reported Friday.Short-seller Hindenburg Research's research note last Tuesday alleged there was a "brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme" at the Adani Group. The ensuring battle between Adani and Hindenburg has driven a rout in stocks of the group's individually listed businesses, wiping over $100 billion off their market value.Notably, concern over Adani's debt was a key pillar of Hindenburg's argument for initiating a short-sell battle with the group."Key listed Adani companies have also taken on substantial debt, including pledging shares of their inflated stock for loans, putting the entire group on precarious financial footing. 5 of 7 key listed companies have reported 'current ratios' below 1, indicating near-term liquidity pressure," it said in its research note.Adani canceled a $2.5 billion share sale this week, despite picking up enough investors to pull it off.Over 200 institutions have taken on debt from the group's companies, Bloomberg reported. Its analysis of filings covered only 18% of Adani's total dollar debt due to different reporting rules across countries, it said.  It reported that Adani is considering prepaying some loans early to restore confidence in the conglomerate's financial health. BlackRock didn't immediately respond to Insider's request for comment. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Norway Finds Rare Earth Metals That Could Make Europe Less Dependent On China Authored by Ingólfur Stefánsson via The Epoch Times, Norwegian scientists have made a discovery of rare earth metals in the country’s northern region. The findings have the potential to transform the country’s economy and secure its place as a major player in the global market for high-tech and green technology. Furthermore, the findings could make Europe less dependent on China for the critical metals. Today, China is believed to account for more than 80 percent of many metals that are needed for green energy solutions, such as rare earth metals used in electric cars and wind turbines. Karl Kristensen, a consultant for Bergfald Environmental Consultants, says that the green shift in economics will only multiply the world’s dependence on these materials. He warned that China has almost complete control of the market for rare earth metals in his lecture on the topic during the KÅKÅnomics economics festival in Stavanger, Norway, in October 2022. The discovery in Norway was made during a routine survey of the region and was confirmed through extensive drilling and analysis. The deposits are believed to be among the largest of their kind in the world, and the potential for further discoveries in the area is significant. The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) was responsible for conducting the research that led to the find. “The NPD has built up expertise over many years, in part through a number of expeditions. We’ve mapped relevant areas, collected data, and taken large volumes of mineral samples,” said Kjersti Dahle, director, technology, analysis and coexistence at the NPD. NPD’s research shows that there is a large area of the Norwegian continental shelf with significant mineral resources, particularly in the deep sea, where several of these minerals are concentrated. The Norwegian government and NPD are now working together to create the necessary framework for a sustainable and responsible exploration and utilization of these minerals. The focus is on ensuring the protection of the marine environment, preserving the diversity of marine life, and mitigating the impact of the mineral exploration and extraction activities. The discovery of these minerals on the Norwegian continental shelf is seen as a major step forward in the country’s efforts to reduce its dependency on mineral imports and to become a leading player in the production of sustainable technologies. The NPD’s report will now be used as a basis for further research and exploration activities in the coming years. “Of the metals found on the seabed in the study area, magnesium, niobium, cobalt, and rare earth minerals are found on the European Commission’s list of critical minerals,” the NPD said in its statement on the research. Rare Earth Metal Supply Chain in the West The Norwegian find is a result of the West rebuilding its supply chain for rare earth minerals. It follows an announcement from LKAB, a Swedish mining company, earlier in January 2023. LKAB announced the discovery of Europe’s largest deposit of rare earth oxides in the country’s far north. The discovery was described as positive for not only the company, the region, and Sweden, but also for Europe and the climate. To reduce dependence on China, Western countries are investing in exploration, mining, and processing of these minerals. The United States, for example, is funding projects to extract rare earths from coal and phosphates and is also working on recycling technology to reduce the need for new minerals. Europe is making efforts to secure its own supply of rare earths and is funding research into new technology to extract and process these minerals. The rebuilding of the rare earths supply chain is a step in reducing dependence on China and ensuring a sustainable future for technology and green energy solutions. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 02:00.....»»

    There is a fascinating long-form article in the Washington Post about the murder of an investigative reporter who was looking into a Ponzi scheme in Las Vegas last year.1 It’s a riveting and terrible story, and the Post focused on the highlights: Lost monies, Mormons, FBI investigations, guns, and murder. I read this… Read More The post Risk-free Annual Returns of 50% appeared first on The Big Picture.     There is a fascinating long-form article in the Washington Post about the murder of an investigative reporter who was looking into a Ponzi scheme in Las Vegas last year.1 It’s a riveting and terrible story, and the Post focused on the highlights: Lost monies, Mormons, FBI investigations, guns, and murder. I read this as I was putting together my deck on how not to get ripped off by investment fraud, this led me to focus on a slightly different aspect of this grim tale: “Authorities had long suspected Beasley of running a massive Ponzi scheme with his business partner, Jeffrey Judd, that mainly targeted Mormons, as members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are often called. The investment was pitched as a nearly risk-free opportunity to earn annual returns of 50 percent by lending money to slip-and-fall victims awaiting checks after the settlement of their lawsuits.” (emphasis added) The red flags were there for anyone who could put their greed aside and simply focus on the math. In the 2010s, the true risk-free rate of returns – 10-Year Treasuries – was yielding ~2.5%, so how could anything remotely risk-free be yielding 20 times that amount? Compare this to the 2000s era sub-prime mortgage-backed securities (MBS), where it was obvious (to some in the 2000s2) that these could not deliver a few 100 basis points above the 10-year without taking on a whole lot more risk. The difference between Treasuries’ 4% and subprime’s 6% is almost quaint compared to this example’s “near risk-free returns” of 50% versus the 10-year’s 2.5%. When your Spidey-sense begins to tingle, you should pay attention. Here are some questions you would want to ask: -Why can’t you borrow at less than a 50% rate? -How lucrative are the Personal Injury awards that someone would be willing to give up half rather than waiting a few months? -What other borrowing facilities have you investigated? -Have any private equity firms considered this deal? -Which institutions, banks, VCs have you presented this? -What other opportunities are aware of that are currently paying 50%? It doesn’t take much analysis to recognize that this is a terrible deal for the people who are paying 50%. It’s so bad for them, and so good for the investors, it makes no sense. That is one giant red flag. There are many different ways to say this: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. (TANSTAAFL) Reward is a function of assumed risk. It’s one thing to recognize how great the odds are stacked against you when buying a lottery ticket; it is something else entirely to think that a safe risk-free investment is going to generate lottery-like gains. Let’s assume this Ponzi scheme was more akin to MBS – a legitimate investment whose risk was discounted by aggressive sales, but one that eventually went bust. Legal, but a terrible investment, and a poor alignment of risks relative to reward. Never confuse risk-free returns with return-free risks. Until we start implanting chips in people’s heads, Human nature will remain forever and always vulnerable to those who would manipulate your emotions. At least if you are aware of what these things look like, you stand a fair chance of avoiding the worst of them.     Previously: How to Avoid Financial Disasters (January 26, 2023) If It Sounds Too Good To Be True…  (September 18, 2022) All the Ways You Can Get Defrauded (July 8, 2021) Advice for Rich Uncles and Others . . . (August 10, 2007)     Source: An alleged $500 million Ponzi scheme preyed on Mormons. It ended with FBI gunfire. By Lizzie Johnson Washington Post, February 1, 2023     __________ 1. Las Vegas investigative reporter Jeff German was slain outside his home on Sept. 2; a Clark County official he had investigated is charged in his death. To continue German’s work, The Washington Post teamed up with his newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, to complete one of the stories he’d planned to pursue before his killing. A folder on German’s desk contained court documents he’d started to gather about an alleged Ponzi scheme that left hundreds of victims – many of them Mormon – in its wake. Post reporter Lizzie Johnson began investigating, working with Review-Journal photographer Rachel Aston. 2. As a comparison, the sales pitch from Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were that their MBS were “as safe as treasuries but yielding 250-300 bps more” or about double the 10-Year yield. It was obvious to a small number of analysts in this space that this was not viable.   The post Risk-free Annual Returns of 50% appeared first on The Big Picture......»»

ST. LOUIS, Feb. 02, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST), a consumer packaged goods holding company, today reported results for the first fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2022. Highlights: First quarter net sales of $1.6 billion Operating profit of $149.9 million; net earnings from continuing operations of $91.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $269.9 million Raised fiscal year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)* guidance to $1,025-$1,065 million *Post provides Adjusted EBITDA guidance only on a non-GAAP basis and does not provide a reconciliation of its forward-looking Adjusted EBITDA non-GAAP guidance measure to the most directly comparable GAAP measure due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying certain amounts that are necessary for such reconciliation, including the adjustments described under "Outlook" below. Basis of Presentation On March 10, 2022, Post's distribution to its shareholders of 80.1% of its interest in BellRing Brands, Inc. ("BellRing") was completed. Accordingly, the historical results of the BellRing business have been presented as discontinued operations in Post's financial statements for prior periods. First Quarter Consolidated Operating Results Net sales were $1,566.3 million, an increase of 17.1%, or $228.8 million, compared to $1,337.5 million in the prior year period. Gross profit was $414.9 million, or 26.5% of net sales, an increase of 25.1%, or $83.2 million, compared to $331.7 million, or 24.8% of net sales, in the prior year period. Results for the first quarter of 2023 reflected pricing actions across the business which offset input and freight inflation. Supply chain disruptions eased during the first quarter of 2023 when compared to the prior year period but continued to drive higher manufacturing costs and customer order fulfillment rates below optimal levels. Selling, general and administrative ("SG&A") expenses were $228.7 million, or 14.6% of net sales, an increase of 3.7%, or $8.2 million, compared to $220.5 million, or 16.5% of net sales, in the prior year period. Operating profit was $149.9 million, an increase of 91.7%, or $71.7 million, compared to $78.2 million in the prior year period. Net earnings from continuing operations were $91.9 million, an increase of 305.6%, or $136.6 million, compared to a net loss from continuing operations of $44.7 million in the prior year period. Net earnings (loss) from continuing operations included the following:   Three Months Ended December 31, (in millions)   2022       2021 Gain on extinguishment of debt, net (1) $ (8.7 )   $ — (Income) expense on swaps, net (1)   (12.3 )     36.9 Gain on investment in BellRing (1)   (5.1 )     — Equity method loss, net of tax   —       18.6 Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests   1.8       0.3         (1) Discussed later in this release and were treated as adjustments for non-GAAP measures. Diluted earnings from continuing operations per common share were $1.52, compared to diluted loss from continuing operations per common share of $0.64 in the prior year period. Adjusted net earnings from continuing operations were $71.2 million, or $1.08 per diluted common share, compared to an adjusted net loss from continuing operations of $6.0 million, or $0.10 per diluted common share, in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $269.9 million, an increase of 32.8%, or $66.6 million, compared to $203.3 million in the prior year period. The prior year period included net earnings from discontinued operations, net of tax and noncontrolling interest of $23.9 million. Net earnings were $91.9 million, or $1.52 per diluted common share, compared to a net loss of $20.8 million, or $0.25 per diluted common share, in the prior year period. Post Consumer Brands North American ready-to-eat ("RTE") cereal and Peter Pan peanut butter. For the first quarter, net sales were $554.7 million, an increase of 9.3%, or $47.4 million, compared to the prior year period. Volumes decreased 1.2%, primarily driven by declines in Honey Bunches of Oats, government bid business and Malt-O-Meal bag cereal, partially offset by increases in Peter Pan peanut butter and private label cereal. Segment profit was $79.3 million, an increase of 11.2%, or $8.0 million, compared to the prior year period. Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $112.9 million, an increase of 4.8%, or $5.2 million, compared to the prior year period. Weetabix Primarily United Kingdom ("U.K.") RTE cereal, muesli and protein-based ready-to-drink ("RTD") shakes. For the first quarter, net sales were $118.1 million, a decrease of 0.4%, or $0.5 million, compared to the prior year period, and included $6.5 million in net sales from Lacka Foods Limited ("Lacka"), which was acquired on April 5, 2022. Additionally, net sales reflected a foreign currency exchange rate headwind of approximately 1,400 basis points. Volumes increased 6.5%; excluding the benefit from the Lacka acquisition, volumes declined 1.1% as growth in private label products was offset by declines in branded products. Segment profit was $21.5 million, a decrease of 21.0%, or $5.7 million, compared to the prior year period. Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $29.7 million, a decrease of 17.7%, or $6.4 million, compared to the prior year period. Foodservice Primarily egg and potato products. For the first quarter, net sales were $600.5 million, an increase of 36.9%, or $161.9 million, compared to the prior year period. Volumes increased 4.4%, driven by increased away-from-home egg and potato demand in the current year period. Egg volumes increased 4.4%, and potato volumes increased 8.1%. Segment profit was $79.1 million, an increase of 423.8%, or $64.0 million, compared to the prior year period. Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $109.0 million, an increase of 163.9%, or $67.7 million, compared to the prior year period. Refrigerated Retail Primarily side dish, egg, cheese and sausage products. For the first quarter, net sales were $293.0 million, an increase of 7.2%, or $19.6 million, compared to the prior year period. Net sales in the first quarter of 2022 included $7.1 million related to the Willamette Egg Farms business ("Willamette"), which was sold on December 1, 2021. Volumes declined 4.6%; excluding the contribution from Willamette in the prior year period, volumes increased 1.1%, led by an 11.7% increase in side dishes. Side dish volume growth reflected improved inventory levels (resulting from lapping capacity constraints and allocations in the prior year period) and a restoration of promotional activities, which together improved velocities in the current year period. This increase was partially offset by volume decreases in egg (resulting from reduced supply driven by avian influenza and elasticities resulting from inflation-driven price increases) and cheese (primarily resulting from the decision to exit certain low-margin business). Volume information by product is disclosed in a table presented later in this release. Segment profit was $21.0 million, an increase of 54.4%, or $7.4 million, compared to the prior year period. Segment Adjusted EBITDA was $40.0 million, an increase of 12.4%, or $4.4 million, compared to the prior year period. Interest, Gain on Extinguishment of Debt, (Income) Expense on Swaps and Income Tax Interest expense, net was $65.9 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to $82.8 million in the first quarter of 2022. The decrease was primarily driven by a decrease in the aggregate principal amount of debt outstanding resulting from repayments of certain indebtedness in fiscal year 2022. Gain on extinguishment of debt, net of $8.7 million was recorded in the first quarter of 2023 primarily in connection with Post's repayment of $71.0 million in total principal amounts to extinguish a portion of Post's 4.50% senior notes. (Income) expense on swaps, net relates to mark-to-market adjustments on interest rate swaps. Income on swaps, net was $12.3 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to an expense of $36.9 million in the first quarter of 2022. Income tax expense was $24.7 million in the first quarter of 2023, an effective income tax rate of 20.9%, compared to a benefit of $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2022, an effective income tax rate of 33.2%. For the first quarter of 2023, the effective income tax rate differed from the statutory tax rate primarily as a result of discrete income tax benefit items related to excess tax benefits for share-based payments. For the first quarter of 2022, the effective income tax rate differed significantly from the statutory tax rate primarily as a result of Post's equity method loss attributable to 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. ("8th Avenue") and excess tax benefits for share-based payments. Share Repurchases During the first quarter of 2023, Post repurchased 0.3 million shares of its common stock for $24.0 million at an average price of $84.79 per share. As of December 31, 2022, Post had $276.0 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization. Outlook For fiscal year 2023, Post management has raised its guidance range for Adjusted EBITDA to $1,025-$1,065 million from $990-$1,040 million. Post management now expects fiscal year 2023 capital expenditures to range between $275-$300 million, which includes $75-$85 million investment in RTD shake manufacturing and precooked and cage-free eggs. Post provides Adjusted EBITDA guidance only on a non-GAAP basis and does not provide a reconciliation of its forward-looking Adjusted EBITDA non-GAAP guidance measure to the most directly comparable GAAP measure due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying certain amounts that are necessary for such reconciliation, including adjustments that could be made for income/expense on swaps, net, gain/loss on extinguishment of debt, net, equity method investment adjustment, mark-to-market adjustments on commodity and foreign exchange hedges, warrant liabilities and equity securities, transaction and integration costs and other charges reflected in Post's reconciliations of historical numbers, the amounts of which, based on historical experience, could be significant. For additional information regarding Post's non-GAAP measures, see the related explanations presented under "Use of Non-GAAP Measures." Use of Non-GAAP Measures Post uses certain non-GAAP measures in this release to supplement the financial measures prepared in accordance with United States ("U.S.") generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). These non-GAAP measures include Adjusted net earnings/loss from continuing operations, Adjusted diluted earnings/loss from continuing operations per common share, Adjusted EBITDA and segment Adjusted EBITDA. The reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is provided later in this release under "Explanation and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures." Management uses certain of these non-GAAP measures, including Adjusted EBITDA and segment Adjusted EBITDA, as key metrics in the evaluation of underlying company and segment performance, in making financial, operating and planning decisions and, in part, in the determination of bonuses for its executive officers and employees. Additionally, Post is required to comply with certain covenants and limitations that are based on variations of EBITDA in its financing documents. Management believes the use of these non-GAAP measures provides increased transparency and assists investors in understanding the underlying operating performance of Post and its segments and in the analysis of ongoing operating trends. Non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with GAAP, as they exclude certain items as described later in this release. These non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. For additional information regarding Post's non-GAAP measures, see the related explanations provided under "Explanation and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures." Conference Call to Discuss Earnings Results and Outlook Post will host a conference call on Friday, February 3, 2023 at 9:00 a.m. EST to discuss financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2023 outlook and to respond to questions. Robert V. Vitale, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Matthew J. Mainer, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, will participate in the call. Interested parties may join the conference call by dialing (800) 343-5172 in the United States and (203) 518-9783 from outside of the United States. The conference identification number is POSTQ123. Interested parties are invited to listen to the webcast of the conference call, which can be accessed by visiting the Investors section of Post's website at www.postholdings.com. A replay of the conference call will be available through Friday, February 10, 2023 by dialing (800) 839-6136 in the United States and (402) 220-2572 from outside of the United States. A webcast replay also will be available for a limited period on Post's website in the Investors section. Prospective Financial Information Prospective financial information is necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that some or all of the assumptions underlying the prospective financial information described above will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. For further discussion of some of the factors that may cause actual results to vary materially from the information provided above, see "Forward-Looking Statements" below. Accordingly, the prospective financial information provided above is only an estimate of what Post's management believes is realizable as of the date of this release. It also should be recognized that the reliability of any forecasted financial data diminishes the farther in the future that the data is forecasted. In light of the foregoing, the information should be viewed in context and undue reliance should not be placed upon it. Forward-Looking Statements Certain matters discussed in this release and on Post's conference call are forward-looking statements, including Post's Adjusted EBITDA outlook for fiscal year 2023 and Post's capital expenditure outlook for fiscal year 2023. These forward-looking statements are sometimes identified from the use of forward-looking words such as "believe," "should," "could," "potential," "continue," "expect," "project," "estimate," "predict," "anticipate," "aim," "intend," "plan," "forecast," "target," "is likely," "will," "can," "may" or "would" or the negative of these terms or similar expressions, and include all statements regarding future performance, earnings projections, events or developments. There are a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made herein. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the following: significant volatility in the cost or availability of inputs to Post's businesses (including freight, raw materials, energy and other supplies); Post's ability to increase its prices to offset cost increases and the potential for such price increases to impact demand for Post's products; disruptions or inefficiencies in Post's supply chain, including as a result of inflation, labor shortages, insufficient product or raw material availability, limited freight carrier availability, Post's reliance on third parties for the supply of materials for or the manufacture of many of Post's products, public health crises (including the COVID-19 pandemic), climatic events, agricultural diseases and pests, fires and evacuations related thereto and other events beyond Post's control; Post's high leverage, Post's ability to obtain additional financing (including both secured and unsecured debt), Post's ability to service its outstanding debt (including covenants that restrict the operation of Post's businesses) and a downgrade or potential downgrade in Post's credit ratings; Post's ability to hire and retain talented personnel, increases in labor-related costs, the ability of Post's employees to safely perform their jobs, including the potential for physical injuries or illness, employee absenteeism, labor strikes, work stoppages and unionization efforts; changes in economic conditions, the occurrence of a recession, disruptions in the U.S. and global capital and credit markets, changes in interest rates and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; Post's ability to continue to compete in its product categories and Post's ability to retain its market position and favorable perceptions of its brands; the impacts of public health crises (including the COVID-19 pandemic), such as negative impacts on demand for Post's foodservice and on-the-go products, Post's ability to manufacture and deliver its products, workforce availability, the health and safety of Post's employees, operating costs, the global economy and capital markets and Post's operations generally; Post's ability to anticipate and respond to changes in consumer and customer preferences and behaviors and introduce new products; allegations that Post's products cause injury or illness, product recalls and withdrawals and product liability claims and other related litigation; Post's ability to identify, complete and integrate or otherwise effectively execute acquisitions or other strategic transactions and effectively manage its growth; risks related to the intended tax treatment of the transactions Post undertook related to divestitures of Post's interest in BellRing; the possibility that Post Holdings Partnering Corporation ("PHPC"), a publicly-traded special purpose acquisition company in which Post indirectly owns an interest (through PHPC Sponsor, LLC, Post's wholly-owned subsidiary), may not consummate a suitable partnering transaction within the prescribed two-year time period, that the partnering transaction may not be successful or that the activities for PHPC could be distracting to Post's management; conflicting interests or the appearance of conflicting interests resulting from several of Post's directors and officers also serving as directors or officers of one or more other companies; Post's ability to successfully implement business strategies to reduce costs; impairment in the carrying value of goodwill or other intangibles; legal and regulatory factors, such as compliance with existing laws and regulations, as well as new laws and regulations and changes to existing laws and regulations and interpretations thereof, affecting Post's businesses, including current and future laws and regulations regarding tax matters, food safety, advertising and labeling, animal feeding and housing operations, data privacy and climate change and other environmental matters; the loss of, a significant reduction of purchases by or the bankruptcy of a major customer; costs, business disruptions and reputational damage associated with information technology failures, cybersecurity incidents or information security breaches; the failure or weakening of the RTE cereal category and consolidations in the retail and foodservice distribution channels; the ultimate impact litigation or other regulatory matters may have on Post; costs associated with the obligations of Bob Evans Farms, Inc. ("Bob Evans") in connection with the sale and separation of its restaurants business in April 2017, including certain indemnification obligations under the restaurants sale agreement and Bob Evans's payment and performance obligations as a guarantor for certain leases; Post's ability to protect its intellectual property and other assets and to continue to use third party intellectual property subject to intellectual property licenses; the ability of Post's and its customers' private brand products to compete with nationally branded products; the impact of national or international disputes, political instability, terrorism, war or armed hostilities, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, including on the global economy, capital markets, Post's supply chain, commodity, energy and freight availability and costs and information security; risks associated with Post's international businesses; changes in critical accounting estimates; losses or increased funding and expenses related to Post's qualified pension or other postretirement plans; significant differences in Post's actual operating results from any of Post's guidance regarding Post's future performance; Post's and PHPC's ability to satisfy the requirements of Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002; and other risks and uncertainties described in Post's and PHPC's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements represent Post's judgment as of the date of this release. Post disclaims, however, any intent or obligation to update these forward-looking statements. About Post Holdings, Inc. Post Holdings, Inc., headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is a consumer packaged goods holding company with businesses operating in the center-of-the-store, refrigerated, foodservice and food ingredient categories. Its businesses include Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Michael Foods and Bob Evans Farms. Post Consumer Brands is a leader in the North American ready-to-eat cereal category and also markets Peter Pan® peanut butter. Weetabix is home to the United Kingdom's number one selling ready-to-eat cereal brand, Weetabix®. Michael Foods and Bob Evans Farms are leaders in refrigerated foods, delivering innovative, value-added egg and refrigerated potato side dish products to the foodservice and retail channels. Post participates in the private brand food category through its ownership interest in 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc., a leading, private brand centric, consumer products holding company. For more information, visit www.postholdings.com. Contact:Investor RelationsJennifer Meyerjennifer.meyer@postholdings.com(314) 644-7665 Media RelationsLisa Hanlylisa.hanly@postholdings.com(314) 665-3180 CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (Unaudited)(in millions, except per share data)   Three Months Ended December 31,     2022       2021   Net Sales $ 1,566.3     $ 1,337.5   Cost of goods sold   1,151.4       1,005.8   Gross Profit   414.9       331.7   Selling, general and administrative expenses   228.7       220.5   Amortization of intangible assets   36.4       36.5   Other operating income, net   (0.1 )     (3.5 ) Operating Profit   149.9       78.2   Interest expense, net   65.9       82.8   Gain on extinguishment of debt, net   (8.7 )     —   (Income) expense on swaps, net   (12.3 )     36.9   Gain on investment in BellRing   (5.1 )     —   Other income, net   (8.3 )     (2.9 ) Earnings (Loss) before Income Taxes and Equity Method Loss   118.4       (38.6 ) Income tax expense (benefit)   24.7       (12.8 ) Equity method loss, net of tax   —       18.6   Net Earnings (Loss) from Continuing Operations, Including Noncontrolling Interests   93.7       (44.4 ) Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests from continuing operations   1.8       0.3   Net Earnings (Loss) from Continuing Operations   91.9       (44.7 ) Net earnings from discontinued operations, net of tax and noncontrolling interest   —       23.9   Net Earnings (Loss) $ 91.9     $ (20.8 )         Earnings (Loss) from Continuing Operations per Common Share:       Basic $ 1.66     $ (0.64 ) Diluted $ 1.52     $ (0.64 ) Earnings from Discontinued Operations per Common Share:       Basic $ —     $ 0.38   Diluted $ —     $ 0.38   Earnings (Loss) per Common Share:       Basic $ 1.66     $ (0.25 ) Diluted $ 1.52     $ (0.25 ) Weighted-Average Common Shares Outstanding:       Basic   58.8       62.5   Diluted   65.8       62.5   CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (Unaudited)(in millions)   December 31, 2022   September 30, 2022                 ASSETS               Current Assets               Cash and cash equivalents $ 606.8     $ 586.5   Restricted cash   3.1       3.6   Receivables, net   539.1       544.2   Inventories   596.6       549.1   Investment in BellRing   —       94.8   Investments held in trust   348.8       346.8   Prepaid expenses and other current assets   103.0       98.4   Total Current Assets   2,197.4       2,223.4                   Property, net   1,756.5       1,751.9   Goodwill   4,416.3       4,349.6   Other intangible assets, net   2,707.2       2,712.2   Other assets   277.6       270.9   Total Assets $ 11,355.0     $ 11,308.0                                   LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY               Current Liabilities               Current portion of long-term debt  $ 1.1     $ 1.1   Accounts payable   426.3       452.7   Other current liabilities   360.8       370.0   Total Current Liabilities   788.2       823.8                   Long-term debt   5,886.8       5,956.6   Deferred income taxes   691.6       688.4   Other liabilities   240.4       266.9   Total Liabilities   7,607.0       7,735.7                   Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest   308.1       306.6                   Shareholders' Equity               Common stock   0.9      .....»»

Insurance ETFs have been gaining steadily. Coverage for intangible assets especially in the area of technology holds promise. Over the last few years, most insurance companies and their stocks have proven their mettle as evident from the performance of SPDR S&P Insurance ETF KIE. The fund has added 32.8% in the past two years (versus a gain 8.2% in the S&P 500), 6.7% in the past year (versus a loss of 11% in the S&P 500) and 4.4% this year (against a rise of 4.6% in the S&P 500) (as of Jan 31, 2023).Both iShares U.S. Insurance ETF IAK and KIE are now trading at 52-week high levels. Let’s see if these can soar higher.Inside the GainsRising Rate Environment Insurance stocks are among the prime beneficiaries of rising rates, as these are able to earn higher returns on their investment portfolio of longer-duration bonds. At the same time, these firms incur a loss as the value of longer-duration bonds goes down with rising interest rates. Nevertheless, since insurance companies have long-term investment horizons, they can hold investments until maturity and hence, no actual losses will be realized.The Fed already made seven rate hikes in 2022 and one rate hike in 2023. As of Jan 31, 2023, the benchmark U.S. treasury yield was 3.52% versus 1.63% recorded at the start of 2022. Yield on the same duration treasury bond even hit a high of 4.25% in late October 2022. Average Yield to Maturity of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT was 3.75% as of Jan 30, 2023. Such a spike in yield explains how the rising rate environment in 2022 went in favor of insurance companies.Higher Pricing Global commercial insurance prices rose for 20 straight quarters though the magnitude of hike has slowed down over the last seven quarters, per Marsh Global Insurance Market Index. Global prices gained 6% in the third quarter of 2022. The United States recorded a 5% uptick (compared with 10% gains in the prior quarter).Growing Mergers and AcquisitionsThe M&A environment has been robust for the space. Deal volume involving insurance agents and brokers, increased to 427 in the first half of 2022 (which is a down year for deals), marking a 16% gain over the same period last year and 13% above the first-half five-year average, per Deloitte. Buying businesses along the same lines will also continue as players look to gain market share.Increased Adoption of TechnologyThe industry is witnessing increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing and robotic process automation that expedite business operations and save cost. The industry has also witnessed the emergence of insurtech — technology-led insurers — creating competition for incumbent players.Opportunities in the SectorCyber insurance pricing gains have been most notable. Cyber insurance pricing increased 48% in the third quarter compared with 79% in the prior quarter. Coverage for emergent exposures among intangible assets such as cryptocurrency, nonfungible tokens, and virtual activities on the metaverse hold immense opportunities for the space in the coming days, per Deloitte.Any Wall of Worry?The Fed is expected to slow down the rate hike momentum in 2023. This may not go in favor of the insurance companies. Plus, the pricing hikes have also been sluggish for the past few quarters. In face of stubborn inflation, this scenario may not prove to be beneficial for the insurance funds. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE): ETF Research ReportsTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Hunter Biden $55,000 Offer For Russian Oligarch Info Falls Under Fresh Scrutiny An email from Hunter Biden to US aluminum company Alcoa is raising fresh concerns over the first son's access to classified documents which were recently discovered in his father's home in Wilmington, Delaware, as House Republicans kick off investigations into allegations of influence peddling. The emails which date back to 2011 reveal Hunter Biden offering to trade information on Russian oligarchs to Alcoa for $55,000, according to the NY Post's original October 2021 report. Specifically, Hunter - while his father was Vice President - offered to provide a "statistical analysis of political and corporate risks, elite networks associated with Oleg Deripaska, the Russian CEO of Basic Element company and United company RUSAL." Deripaska had notably just signed a metal supply agreement with Alcoa - which Hunter also offered a "list of elites of similar rank in Russia, map of [Deripaska’s] networks based on frequency of interaction with selected elites and countries." Oleg Deripaska Now, in light of the fact that classified documents have been found all over the house that Hunter was living at, the Alcoa revelation raises new questions over Hunter's access to sensitive information. The deeply detailed proposal has come under sharp scrutiny given recent revelations that Hunter Biden had access to the Delaware lake-front home where secret papers from his father’s time as vice president were discovered in a garage, basement and library — combined with Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), the high-profile former chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, told The Post that the Alcoa solicitation fits within a broader picture. -NY Post "The Biden family is the most corrupt family in the history of American politics," said Banks. "The biggest question facing Republican investigators: Where to begin?" Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has also raised the question over whether Hunter used classified documents found at the 6,850 sqft mansion in his business dealings. Specifically, Johnson referenced an April 12, 2014 email from Hunter to his business partners about Ukraine, which looked "suspiciously" like it could have contained classified information. "It reads like one of those scene-setters — highly detailed information in terms of Ukraine," Johnson told Fox News on Tuesday. The email, from Hunter to partner Devon Archer, includes a 22-point memo which he described as "thoughts after doing some research." It included predictions such as the election of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, as well as "some sort of decentralization will likely occur in the East." "If it doesn’t the Russians will continue to escalate there [sic] destabilization campaign, which could lead to a full scale take over of the eastern region most critically Donetsk," Hunter wrote. "The strategic value is to create a land bridge for RU[ssia] to Crimea." Hunter was obviously fed detailed information on Ukraine so he could show Burisma why he was worth millions of dollars. Was this classified information? Did Joe Biden know about this? Inquiring minds want to know. pic.twitter.com/zFZkpye5Zh — Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) January 24, 2023 Next week kicks off fresh hearings in the House Oversight Committee, which will investigate Hunter's alleged influence peddling - including cashing in on his ties to his father in order to rake in millions from foreign companies. "We have evidence that … we’ll continue to be transparent with as we start our hearings next week, where this family is taking in millions of millions of dollars from our adversaries," said Rep. James Comer (R-KY), Chairman of the committee. "And I think we need to determine what was that money for [and] who supplied that money?" "Why did the FBI, according to Elon Musk and the Twitter Files … the FBI was implying to them that that laptop was Russian disinformation," Comer continued. "It’s not, and what’s concerning is the FBI had the laptop. Why were they doing that?" House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer spreads the baseless conspiracy theory that "there most certainly is a connection" between Hunter Biden's business dealings in China and President Biden's classified documents case. pic.twitter.com/GCP5I3KJnE — The Recount (@therecount) January 25, 2023 "The New York Post is fourth biggest newspaper in America; they’re a credible news organization. They’ve done extensive reporting on on the hard drive," Comer said, adding that the committee must dispel "a lot of misconceptions about the laptop." "So we’re gonna start with with the hard drive, because there’s a lot of evidence on the hard drive that would suggest that Joe Biden knew very well what his family was involved in." "There’s emails from some of these people’s texting and emailing Hunter Biden saying, ‘Thanks for setting up the meeting with your dad. This is why we’re investigating – we want to make sure that our national security is not compromised," Comer continued, adding that Hunter's international business dealings are particularly suspicious given the services he was providing to foreign agencies. "We’d like to know what that consulting was. I feel like if China or anyone pays you millions of dollars they expect to get a return on that investment," said Comer. "If they would explain that, then think that a lot of these problems would subside a little bit, but all they do is just like roll their eyes or the audacity of Republicans to ask these questions." The oversight committee has pressed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to release more than 150 suspicious activity reports filed by banks regarding foreign transactions and wires to and from Hunter Biden, his businesses and associates. -NY Post "Right now, we just want the bank records. Those suspicious activity reports were created to help Congress and everyone communicate about foreign suspicious foreign transactions," said Comer. "If you do a major foreign transaction with a country, the bank is probably going to write a suspicious activity report to cover themselves for liability." Tyler Durden Thu, 02/02/2023 - 15:08.....»»

A CoinDesk analysis shows crypto startups only raised $548 million last month, and FTX’s full impact on industry fundraising likely remains to be seen......»»

Canadian provinces and European countries that have extended producer responsibility laws see higher recycling rates than US states. Four states — California, Colorado, Maine, and Oregon — have enacted extended producer responsibility laws. At least 11 others have either introduced legislation or plan to do so.ryasick/Getty Images Recycling rates in US states could hit 75% if companies bear the costs, a study found. The policy, known as extended producer responsibility, is successful in Canada and Europe. EPR is gaining popularity in the US after four states passed laws to help reduce packaging waste. This article is part of Insider's weekly newsletter on sustainability, written by Catherine Boudreau, senior sustainability reporter. Sign up here.Every now and again, I hear fellow Americans wonder whether they should move to Canada or Europe for the bennies — more-generous healthcare, cheaper universities, and paid family leave, for example.As it turns out, Americans have reason to envy some Canadian provinces and European countries for their waste systems as well. Recycling rates are high there, and taxpayers don't cover the bill, unlike in the US.British Columbia, Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands all had recycling rates of 78% or higher in recent years when averaged across materials like paper, cardboard, aluminum cans, and plastic, according to an analysis published Thursday by The Recycling Partnership, a group dedicated to improving recycling across the US. Quebec and Portugal have recycling rates in the 60% range.Meanwhile, the recycling rates in six US states are much lower. Washington and Connecticut delivered the highest score, at about 50%, while Maryland, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Florida all came in at 34% or below, the analysis found. The Recycling Partnership said it examined these states because they had the best available data. So what explains the gap? The Canadian provinces and European countries have laws around what's called extended producer responsibility. Each program operates in different ways, but in general, EPR requires the companies that produce waste from bottles, packaging, and other materials to pay fees on those items. This, in turn, raises money for recycling and disposal. That revenue can also be used to expand recycling access to more people, improve infrastructure, and launch education campaigns."There's often spurious claims made about EPR, like it's just an ATM machine for brands or that it just charges dollars without improving the recycling system," Dylan de Thomas, the vice president of public policy and government affairs at The Recycling Partnership, told Insider. "But when we looked at each of these individual countries, we saw consistent improvement after EPR was adopted."The Recycling Partnership compiled data on how much recycling rates improved in Canada and Europe under EPR and extrapolated that to six US states to estimate the impact. In most cases, recycling rates could get as high as 75%, de Thomas said.The policy is gaining steam in the US, where municipal governments shoulder the costs of waste management, and the plastic-waste crisis regularly makes headlines. Four states — California, Colorado, Maine, and Oregon — have enacted EPR laws. At least 11 others have either introduced legislation or plan to, according to a tally by The Recycling Partnership.The law in Colorado last year got rare public endorsements from big business, including Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Walmart. They teamed up with environmental groups like Recycle Colorado, the World Wildlife Fund, and the Sierra Club. Those companies have made promises to use more recycled materials in their packaging and reduce plastic waste but can't achieve those goals without a better recycling system in the US.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Chainalysis said Lazarus Group, a North Korea-based cybercrime syndicate, was among the most prolific in a record year of crypto thefts. North Korea-linked hackers stole nearly $2 billion worth of crypto in 2022.Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images Crypto hacks climbed to a record $3.8 billion in 2022, Chainalysis said in a report.  Groups linked to North Korea ripped off nearly half that value, taking $1.7 billion.  Among the largest hackers was Lazarus Group, which was identified as a key player in the break-in of Axie Infinity's Ronin network.  Hackers ripped off more than $3 billion from cryptocurrency businesses last year, with more than half of that amount stolen by groups linked to North Korea, according to Chainalysis. Topping the most prolific hackers is Lazarus Group, the North Korea-based cybercriminal syndicate the US Treasury said was linked to last year's $620 million crypto heist from Axie Infinity's Ronin blockchain network.North Korea-linked hackers "shattered their own records for theft" in lifting roughly $1.7 billion worth of cryptocurrency across several hacks, the blockchain analysis firm said in its report this week. It noted experts believe the North Korean government which is under sanctions for its nuclear weapons activity is using stolen crypto to fund its nuclear weapons program. "For context, North Korea's total exports in 2020 totalled $142 million worth of goods, so it isn't a stretch to say that cryptocurrency hacking is a sizable chunk of the nation's economy," Chainalysis said. $1.1 billion of crypto stolen by North Korea-linked groups was swiped in hacks of DeFi, or decentralized finance, protocols. DeFi protocols were the largest victims last year with $3.1 billion stolen and accounting for 82.1% of all cryptocurrency ripped off by hackers. That marks a jump from 73.3% in 2021. Chainalysis said outside of DeFi protocols, North Korea-linked hackers also send large sums to crypto mixers. Mixers blend cryptocurrencies from many users to shield from where the funds came and who owns them.Chart showing total value stolen in crypto hacks and number of hacks from 2016 to 2022.ChainalysisRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

"In a period of highly negative sentiment, we've seen suspiciously solid floors under bitcoin," finance professor John Griffin told Fortune. Bitcoin has rallied to start 2023 after a dismal performance last year.Jasmin Merdan/Getty Images In 2017, professor John Griffin noticed the price of bitcoin appeared to be propped up by a single "whale," and he's now seeing similar red flags, per Fortune. At the end of 2022, Griffin observed that bitcoin seemed to bounce each time it breached the $16,000 floor. "The same mechanism we saw in 2017 could be at play now in the still unreal bitcoin market." After a dismal outing last year, bitcoin has skyrocketed more than 40% to start the new year. But John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas McCombs School of Business, thinks there's something suspicious going on, according to Fortune.He had a similar inkling of foul play in 2017, when he and a colleague noticed that a single bitcoin "whale" seemed to drive the token's price and distort trading. In 2018, Griffin and Amin Shams published a 118-page report that detailed their proof of bitcoin market manipulation by a single entity. Two years later, the report was picked up by the peer-reviewed Journal of Finance.Today, he sees parallels."It's very suspicious," Griffin told Fortune. "The same mechanism we saw in 2017 could be at play now in the still unreal bitcoin market."He explained that a token manipulator would want to set a floor price for their asset, which seems to be the case now for bitcoin, which typically sees high volatility rather than stability."In a period of highly negative sentiment, we've seen suspiciously solid floors under bitcoin," he said.Griffin maintained that the sheer size of the crypto market and the amount of data has made definitive proof elusive. Not only that, but he said bad actors are sophisticated enough to hide their identities. Still, one finding from Griffin's research five years ago was that sizable bitcoin purchases happened when the token reached certain thresholds. "We saw far more purchases at those benchmarks," Griffin said. "The whale kept establishing price floors, and those floors kept rising. It wasn't a club. It was one entity. But when the whale held the price at the thresholds, that made it look as if bitcoin was safe at those floors. That made it look safe for funds and small customers to buy bitcoin, driving the price still higher."Bitcoin price floor manipulation During bitcoin's latest run, it's peculiar how reliably bitcoin bounced above $16,000 seemingly the moment it breached that level, he said. That dynamic was evident when Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX was crashing.In a five-day stretch in November, bitcoin plunged 25% to $15,900. Then, according to Fortune calculations, the token traded between $16,000 to $18,000 every single day leading up to January 11 except for one.  For bitcoin to exhibit that degree of stability is unusual. FTX marked one of the largest collapses in crypto and financial history, yet the price of the world's largest token saw some of the smallest swings ever. Today, Griffin believes that bitcoin remains "highly vulnerable to manipulation," per Fortune."We don't have concrete analysis this time," he added. "The truth may emerge in specific stories, if there is collusion."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

A new generation of treatments promises to help more people with depression. Getty Images Advances in depression treatment have been rare over the past few decades. But biotech companies are looking for ways to improve treatments. While some are developing drugs that work faster, others are targeting subtypes of the disorder. Depression is an incredibly common disorder that affects roughly 280 million people worldwide.But treatments for mental-health illnesses, like depression, haven't changed much over the past few decades. An estimated one-third of patients who try antidepressant treatments don't see improvements in their symptoms.The pandemic has made things worse. Depression symptoms tripled in the first year of the pandemic and rose again in the second year, according to a paper published in The Lancet Regional Health. And 1 in 5 adults reported receiving mental health treatment in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Some biotech companies are looking to fundamentally change how we treat mental illnesses like depression.Biogen and Sage are developing an antidepressant that patients take for only two weeks. Meanwhile, neuroscience company Axsome Therapeutics' new drug Auvelity, which worked faster than other antidepressants in clinical trials, was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in August.On the heels of the approval of a ketamine-based depression treatment developed by Johnson & Johnson unit Janssen in 2019, a smattering of companies are testing psychedelic compounds to see if they can help patients with hard-to-treat depression. Insider put together a roundup of the most promising depression treatments today, both those that have won approval and those that are in the later stages of the research process.Getty ImagesAxsome's new drug works fasterAuvelity, developed by neuroscience-focused biotech company Axsome, was approved by the FDA last year. It became the first oral antidepressant drug to be approved by US regulators in decades.Unlike most depression treatments on the market, Auvelity is rapid-acting, which means it offers faster relief for patients. In trials, the drug helped to improve depressive symptoms in patients within one week.SVB Securities analysts said in August that they expect Auvelity to become a notable product in the major depressive disorder market. MDD is also known as clinical depression and is defined by persistent depressive symptoms. Sage and Biogen are developing an antidepressant that patients only need to take for two weeksThe Biogen headquarters in Cambridge, Mass.AP Photo/Steven SennePharmaceutical companies Biogen and Sage are developing an antidepressant that patients take for only two weeks. That's in contrast to currently available treatments, many of which are recommended to be taken for at least six months or sometimes longer, depending on the patient. While the drug, called zuranolone, has shown to improve symptoms of major depressive disorder and postpartum depression in clinical trials, Stifel analysts said in a January note there are still open questions around how long the effects will last and how patients take the drug.They added, however, that data from clinical trials suggest the drug is likely to be approved.In December, the companies announced that they had completed their application requesting the FDA approve the drug.Cowen analysts said in a January note that the drug could launch as soon as the end of this year. According to Biogen CEO Christopher Viehbacher, zuranolone could be a new blockbuster for the company."I think zuranolone is the biggest undervalued potential of Biogen," Viehbacher said at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco in early January. Smaller startups are trying to make treatments more precise — so that they can help patients with subtypes of the diseaseAmit Etkin is the founder and CEO of Alto NeuroscienceAlto NeuroscienceConditions like depression aren't a monolith; research has shown that there may be several different forms of depression, influenced by factors like genetics and the environment.But the treatments available today are often prescribed as if depression is a singular disorder. A handful of companies are looking to change that by developing tailored drugs that may work better for patients with specific subtypes of depression.Alto Neuroscience, for example, announced earlier this year that its treatment ALTO-100 worked better for patients with poor cognition compared to those with good cognition in a midstage trial. The startup is using biological measurements — called biomarkers — to develop drugs for mental illnesses like depression and PTSD. HMNC Brain Health is doing similar work. The startup is developing personalized treatments for depression geared toward patients who take tests — namely, blood draws that will undergo a genomic analysis, or an examination of the patient's genetic makeup — to determine whether they would be a good fit for a specific kind of treatment. In October, the company raised $14 million to progress the company's pipeline of drugs and expand its team.Yarygin/Getty ImagesA few companies are testing psychedelics to treat depressionPsychedelics like psilocybin, the psychoactive ingredient in magic mushrooms, have shown in studies that they could be an effective treatment for depression, and especially for difficult-to-treat depression.While most companies focused on psychedelics are in early stages of research, a handful are in mid-stage trials. One company, Compass Pathways, is aiming to recruit close to 1,000 participants for a late-stage study that could become the biggest psychedelics clinical trial in the world. Compass CEO Kabir Nath told Insider in November that the company expects to release data from its late stage trials in 2024 and 2025.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Recent Data Shows 'Stunning Increase' In Serious Harm Reports In Young Healthy Pilots: Army Lt. Col. Theresa Long Authored by Carly Mayberry via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), It’s been a year since four Department of Defense (DOD) whistleblowers found a sudden increase in various diseases in the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED), which coincided directly with the introduction of COVID-19 vaccinations. Now, new data shows more evidence. LTC Theresa M Long’s promotion, Ft Rucker, AL. Photo taken by Michael Luna. (Courtesy of Theresa Long) That’s according to Lt. Col.Theresa Long, M.D., MPH, a board-certified aerospace medicine doctor and Army Brigade flight surgeon with specialty training as an aviation mishap investigator and safety officer, who was one of the four whistleblowers. Long’s background has uniquely equipped her to recognize what she described as “unusual diagnoses and alarming trends only after the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccinations.” Sharp Increase in Serious Harm Reports in Pilots: DOD Data Long said what she has now found has led her to file yet another whistleblower complaint with Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) office. She described this data as “more alarming DMED data” after she “went back into the ‘fixed’ DMED again to look for signals of harm for Army aviation.” “What I found was a clear signal, that something in 2021 changed the health of service members,” Long told The Epoch Times. She said these signals were consistent with those in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) reports. But unlike VAERS reports, DMED data showed spikes in the number of diagnoses “made by a healthcare professional within the DOD on service members.” According to the Military Health System, the DMED provides remote access to a subset of data contained in the Defense Medical Surveillance System (DMSS). The DMSS contains up-to-date and historical data on diseases and medical events (including reportable events) and “is available to authorized users such as U.S. military medical providers, epidemiologists, medical researchers, safety officers or medical operations/ clinical support staff for surveying health conditions in the U.S. military.” “After querying all pilots across the DOD, for all-cause morbidity and mortality, I found a stunning increase in the number of reportable events, spiking from an average of 226 reportable events a year (2016-2019) to 4,059 reports in 2022,” she explained. A DOD reportable event is any patient safety event resulting in death, permanent harm, or severe temporary harm—and all require a comprehensive systematic analysis and a follow-on corrective action implementation plan report. “The point is there is a statistically significant increase in death, permanent harm, or severe temporary harm in young healthy fit pilots,” she continued. Such injuries were more obviously shown in this population. Because aviation pilots are required to have a superior level of health and fitness, and their health conditions are under more strict monitoring, according to Long. What spurred Long on to pull this second round of data was when she learned the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had quietly made changes to the acceptable parameters of PR intervals (representative of the first part of a heartbeat, measured in seconds or milliseconds) on electrocardiograms of pilots. The FAA didn’t respond with research and data to support their decision, according to Long. Those actions led to the press release dated Jan. 27, 2023 from Johnson in a letter to the FAA, where he stated the following details: “Based on data from the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database, the whistleblower [Theresa Long] reported that the total number of disease and injuries [reportable events] in pilots across the DOD was 265 in 2016, 252 in 2017, 164 in 2018, 223 in 2019, 2,194 in 2020, 2,861 in 2021, and 4,059 in 2022.” Johnson also told The Epoch Times these statistics “raise questions as to whether FAA has seen similar increases in disease and injuries in individuals in the aviation industry.” Long noted that in the “post-glitch” DMED, the number of reportable events across the DOD had gone from a four-year average (2016-2019) of 40,813 to 110,000 in 2020 to over 200,000 in 2022. “Some would ask why the numbers start increasing in 2020, you have to remember the Pfizer/DOD study with 43,448 participants started on July 27, 2020.” Long emphasized that her opinions do not reflect those of the Army or the DOD. Looking back, she said it was after being stonewalled for answers regarding adverse events from the COVID vaccine that she began performing queries in the DMED. She wanted to know if what she was seeing within her brigade were isolated anomalies or part of a wider disaster unfolding. Whistleblowers First Report Discrepancies in DOD Data It was in January of 2022 when Long, along with two other U.S. military doctors, Dr. Samuel Sigoloff and Special Forces flight surgeon Lt. Col. Peter Chambers, and Army Public Health Officer 1 Lt. Mark Bashaw first blew the whistle on the DOD. Together, they filed the initial whistleblower complaints regarding the DMED data, which showed an inordinate amount of negative health-related conditions related to the vaccine. The initial DMED data given to Johnson showed a massive rise in cases of anxiety, esophageal cancer, breast cancer, female infertility, miscarriages, HIV, acute myocarditis, and Bell’s palsy among other conditions after the vaccine was mandated for U.S. military members. Long added that after the DMED data was presented, Moderna, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology company behind one of the COVID-19 vaccinations and its mRNA immune response technology, lost $140 billion of dollars in stock. Yet, despite the alarming data coming directly from the DOD’s own $42 million medical surveillance database, the department’s official claimed that the discovery of the data was a “data glitch” and proceeded to take the database offline, supposedly “fixing” it. As reported in The Epoch Times, the DOD claimed that the data in DMED was incorrect for the years 2016-2020, but the 2021 number was not affected. The corrected data saw the data for prior years increased, which made the 2021 data look normal. After Long handed over the documents to DOD, it took officials 47 days to formulate a response to the data, only to explain it was a surprise to them.  Based on the previous DOD data, “the cluster of medical conditions represents a dramatic shift in the acuity of medical conditions we normally see,” said Long, noting that the data is “so catastrophic,” at the very least when those numbers came out, the military would reflexively pause everything and investigate. “They didn’t pause anything and it took them [the DOD] a month to complete their sham investigation.” She said. “It’s a gross indictment and dereliction of duty.” “We introduce a brand new drug into our very healthy population and the surveillance people aren’t even paying attention to their own $42 million-a-year system?” asked Long, who noted that during her 30 years in the Army, many of which she served as a doctor, she and other colleagues never heard of such a database provided by the system’s contractor Ussiant until 2019. “Don’t you think introducing a drug that was rushed to an entire fighting force would make it a top priority that the surveillance system is working?” Long also asked why, if the DMED just had a “glitch” during the COVID pandemic, no one is being held accountable for this egregious medical surveillance system failure. Long’s attorney, Todd Callender, noted the DOD failed to produce a single expert IT witness that would testify under oath that the shocking data was just a “glitch.” “So if the data was that alarming, why didn’t anyone in the Defense Health Agency (DHA) sound the alarm or catch the ‘glitch,’” she continued. “How did they not see this huge spike in serious medical problems?” Another question arises as to why military doctors like Long have not received any communication regarding this spike in reportable events, which wasn’t just limited to pilots but also general officers and those in the Special Forces. “I was notified to comb over our inventory after a risk management alert notification alerted me to two defective earplugs found at Fort Sill, Okla.” Long said, “But I can’t even get them to send out an alert saying ‘Hey your pilots might get myocarditis from the vaccine.’” For this story, The Epoch Times reached out for comment from Director of Defense Lloyd J. Austin, the Office of the Surgeon General, and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for comment. ‘I Can’t Un-see the Things I’ve Seen’ These new developments come as more physicians and patients have spoken out about a growing number of vaccine injuries while the science and research literature has simultaneously validated their claims and concerns. Long said she was not only ignored but received threats against her career after speaking up. That’s because no action was taken on the part of military leaders to fully investigate the number and scope of adverse medical events that she, Sigoloff, Chambers, and Bashaw initially brought to their attention. “When I found the DOD data, they pulled my credentials and took all my patients off my schedule,” said Long, noting that only left her more time to thoroughly look into the data. While Long continues to add to her count of personally witnessed vaccine injuries, she also waits for a response from government officials with her latest filing. Since she first came forward, she has also given testimony to the Idaho Legislature and at the Alaska Medical Freedom Symposium. Appearing recently on Fox News’ Tucker Carlson Tonight, she spoke about the FAA’s change in health requirements that significantly broaden the electrocardiogram range for pilots and allows those with cardiac injury damage to fly. “In the light of emerging and overwhelming data showing cardiac damage from COVID and COVID vaccines on cardiac muscle, I can’t imagine why they would make this move and I think it’s a question that really should be taken to Dr. Susan Northrup, senior flight surgeon for the FAA,” Long told Carlson. Read more here... Tyler Durden Thu, 02/02/2023 - 12:10.....»»

Though the social media giant reported its third consecutive quarterly drop in revenues, it provided an upbeat revenue forecast signaling a rebound in demand for digital ads after months of weak sales. After the closing bell on Feb 1, Facebook’s parent company Meta Platforms META reported solid fourth-quarter 2022 results, wherein it outpaced revenue and earnings estimates. Though the social media giant reported its third consecutive quarterly drop in revenues, it provided an upbeat revenue forecast, signaling a rebound in demand for digital ads after months of weak sales.META shares spiked 20% in aftermarket hours on elevated volume. If the surge holds true when the market opens today, Meta would add about $76 billion to its market value, according to Bloomberg data, largely reversing the $89 billion hit at its third-quarter results amid investor anxiety over its costly metaverse bet.Investors should buy ETFs having a large allocation to this social media giant to tap the opportune moment. These include Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund XLC, Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF FCOM, Vanguard Communication Services ETF VOX, iShares Global Comm Services ETF IXP and MicroSectors FANG+ ETN FNGS.Earnings in FocusAdjusted earnings per share came in at $3.00, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.12 but declining from the year-ago earnings of $3.67 per share. Revenues dipped 4% year over year to $32.2 billion and came above the estimated $31.3 billion. This marks Meta’s third consecutive year-over-year revenue decline since going public in 2012. The year-over-year decline came on the back of a downturn in the online advertising market and competition from rivals such as TikTok (see: all the Communication ETFs here).Meta Platforms’ global daily active users increased 4% year over year to 2.00 billion. Monthly active users grew 2% year over year, each to 2.96 billion. The company stated that about 2.96 billion people use at least one of the Family of services (Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram or Messenger) every day, on average.The world’s largest social media platform expects to post revenues in the range of $26-$28.5 billion for the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is of $27.18 billion.ETFs in FocusCommunication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC)Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund offers exposure to companies from telecommunication services, media, entertainment and interactive media & services, and has accumulated $9.2 billion in its asset base. It follows the Communication Services Select Sector Index and holds 25 stocks in its basket, with Meta Platforms occupying the top position at 16.8% share. About 40.9% of the portfolio is allocated to interactive media & services, while entertainment and media round off the next two.Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund charges 10 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 5.6 million shares. It has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold).Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF (FCOM)Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF follows the MSCI USA IMI Communication Services 25/50 Index. It holds 113 stocks in its basket, with Meta Platforms occupying the second position at 10.7% (read: 5 ETFs to Ride On as Nasdaq Clocks Best January in 20 Years).Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF has amassed $512.9 million in its asset base and trades in an average daily volume of 127,000 shares. It charges 8 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy) with a Medium risk outlook.Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX)Vanguard Communication Services ETF also targets the communication sector by tracking the MSCI US Investable Market Communication Services 25/50 Index. Holding 113 stocks in its basket, Meta Platform takes the second spot with a 10.5% share. Interactive media & services is the top sector, accounting for 37% of the portfolio, while movies & entertainment, integrated telecommunication services, and cable & satellite round off the next three.Vanguard Communication Services ETF has AUM of $2.7 billion and trades in a good volume of 305,000 shares a day, on average. It charges 10 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook.iShares Global Comm Services ETF (IXP) iShares Global Comm Services ETF provides global exposure to companies in media, entertainment, social media, search engine, video/gaming and telecommunication services by tracking the S&P Global 1200 Communication Services 4.5/22.5/45 Capped Index. It holds 73 stocks in its basket, with Meta Platforms taking the third spot at 9.5% share. Interactive media & services dominates the fund’s return at 42.7%, followed by integrated telecommunication services (20%).iShares Global Comm Services ETF has amassed $240.1 million in its asset base while trading at an average daily volume of 24,000 shares. The expense ratio comes in at 0.40%. IXP has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook.MicroSectors FANG+ ETN (FNGS)MicroSectors FANG+ ETN is linked to the performance of the NYSE FANG+ Index, which is an equal-dollar weighted index designed to provide exposure to a group of highly traded growth stocks of next-generation technology and tech-enabled companies. It holds 10 equal-weighted stocks in its basket, with Meta Platform accounting for a 10% share (read: ETFs to Buy on Tesla's Record-Breaking Q4 Results).MicroSectors FANG+ ETN has accumulated $54 million in its asset base and charges 58 bps in annual fees. It trades in an average daily volume of 27,000 shares and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX): ETF Research Reports Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF (FCOM): ETF Research Reports iShares Global Comm Services ETF (IXP): ETF Research Reports Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC): ETF Research Reports MicroSectors FANG+ ETN (FNGS): ETF Research Reports Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research.....»»

    There is a fascinating long-form article in the Washington Post about the murder of an investigative reporter who was looking into a Ponzi scheme in Las Vegas last year.1 It’s a riveting and terrible story, and the Post focused on the highlights: Lost monies, Mormons, FBI investigations, guns, and murder. I read this… Read More The post 50% Risk-free Annual Returns appeared first on The Big Picture.     There is a fascinating long-form article in the Washington Post about the murder of an investigative reporter who was looking into a Ponzi scheme in Las Vegas last year.1 It’s a riveting and terrible story, and the Post focused on the highlights: Lost monies, Mormons, FBI investigations, guns, and murder. I read this as I was putting together my deck on how not to get ripped off by investment fraud, This led me to focus on a slightly different aspect of this grim tale: “Authorities had long suspected Beasley of running a massive Ponzi scheme with his business partner, Jeffrey Judd, that mainly targeted Mormons, as members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are often called. The investment was pitched as a nearly risk-free opportunity to earn annual returns of 50 percent by lending money to slip-and-fall victims awaiting checks after the settlement of their lawsuits.” (emphasis added) The red flags were there for anyone who could put their greed aside and simply focus on the math. In the 2010s, the true risk-free rate of returns – 10-Year Treasuries – was yielding ~2.5%, so how could anything remotely risk-free be yielding 20 times that amount? Compare this to the 2000s era sub-prime mortgage-backed securities (MBS), where it was obvious (to some in the 2000s2) that these could not deliver a few 100 basis points above the 10-year without taking on a whole lot more risk. The difference between Treasuries’ 4% and subprime’s 6% is almost quaint compared to this example’s “near risk-free returns” of 50% versus the 10-year’s 2.5%. When your Spidey-sense begins to tingle, you should pay attention. Here are some questions you would want to ask: -Why can’t you borrow at less than a 50% rate? -How lucrative are the Personal Injury awards that someone would be willing to give up half rather than waiting a few months? -What other borrowing facilities have you investigated? -Have any private equity firms considered this deal? -Which institutions, banks, VCs have you presented this? -What other opportunities are aware of that are currently paying 50%? It doesn’t take much analysis to recognize that this is a terrible deal for the people who are paying 50%. It’s so bad for them, and so good for the investors, it makes no sense. That is one giant red flag. There are many different ways to say this: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. (TANSTAAFL) Reward is a function of assumed risk. It’s one thing to recognize how great the odds are stacked against you when buying a lottery ticket; it is something else entirely to think that a safe risk-free investment is going to generate lottery-like gains. Let’s assume this Ponzi scheme was more akin to MBS – a legitimate investment whose risk was discounted by aggressive sales, but one that eventually went bust. Legal, but a terrible investment, and a poor alignment of risks relative to reward. Never confuse risk-free returns with return-free risks. Until we start implanting chips in people’s heads, Human nature will remain forever and always vulnerable to those who would manipulate your emotions. At least if you are aware of what these things look like, you stand a fair chance of avoiding the worst of them.     Previously: How to Avoid Financial Disasters (January 26, 2023) If It Sounds Too Good To Be True…  (September 18, 2022) All the Ways You Can Get Defrauded (July 8, 2021) Advice for Rich Uncles and Others . . . (August 10, 2007)     Source: An alleged $500 million Ponzi scheme preyed on Mormons. It ended with FBI gunfire. By Lizzie Johnson Washington Post, February 1, 2023     __________ 1. Las Vegas investigative reporter Jeff German was slain outside his home on Sept. 2; a Clark County official he had investigated is charged in his death. To continue German’s work, The Washington Post teamed up with his newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, to complete one of the stories he’d planned to pursue before his killing. A folder on German’s desk contained court documents he’d started to gather about an alleged Ponzi scheme that left hundreds of victims – many of them Mormon – in its wake. Post reporter Lizzie Johnson began investigating, working with Review-Journal photographer Rachel Aston. 2. As a comparison, the sales pitch from Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were that their MBS were “as safe as treasuries but yielding 250-300 bps more” or about double the 10-Year yield. It was obvious to a small number of analysts in this space that this was not viable.   The post 50% Risk-free Annual Returns appeared first on The Big Picture......»»

Many tenants devoted more than half of their pay to rental housing, according to an analysis from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies......»»