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Charting Three Decades Of The World"s Working Poor

Charting Three Decades Of The World's Working Poor Poverty is often associated with unemployment - however, millions of working people around the world are living in what’s considered to be extreme poverty, or less than $1.90 per day. Thankfully, the world’s population of poor workers has decreased substantially over the last few decades. But how exactly has it changed since 1991, and where is the majority of the working poor population living today? This graphic by Visual Capitalst's Gilbert Fontana uses data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) to show the regional breakdown of the world’s working poor, and how this demographic has changed in the last few decades. From Asia to Africa In 1991, about 808 million employed people were living in extreme poverty, or nearly 15% of the global population at the time. As the graphic above shows, a majority of this population lived in Eastern Asia, most notably in China, which was the world’s most populous country until only very recently. However, thanks to China’s economic reforms, and political reforms like the National “8-7” Poverty Reduction Plan, millions of people in the country were lifted out of poverty. Today, Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the world’s highest concentration of working poor. Below, we’ll take a closer look at the region and zoom in on select countries. Zooming in on Sub-Saharan Africa As of 2021, 11 of the 49 countries that make up Sub-Saharan Africa had a working poverty rate that made up over half their population. Here’s a look at these 11 countries, and the percentage of their working population that lives in extreme poverty:   Burundi is first on the list, with 79% of its working population living below the poverty line. One reason for this is the country’s struggling economy—Burundi has the lowest GDP per capita of any country in the world. Because of the economic conditions in the country, many people struggle to meet their basic needs. For instance, it’s estimated that 40% of urban dwellers in Burundi don’t have access to safe drinking water. But Burundi is not alone, with other countries like Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo also having more than two-thirds of their working population in extreme poverty. Which countries will be able to able to lift their people out of poverty next? Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 23:20.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nyt1 hr. 26 min. ago Related News

Friday links: getting new stuff

MarketsThe cannabis industry has sat out the 2023 market rally. (toddharrison.substack.com)Why it's not likely worth your time trying to eke out returns in dying industries. (rationalwalk.com)In praise of not tinkering with your portfolio. (mutualfundobserver.com)AppleThe Apple ($AAPL) iPad is having its moment. (macworld.com)Why Apple ($AAPL) devices keep erroneously calling 911. (nytimes.com)People are interacting less and less with voice assistants. (bbc.com)EconomyThe January NFP showed a big jump in payrolls. (calculatedriskblog.com)Let's take a moment to celebrate the strong jobs economy. (stayathomemacro.substack.com)Covid is fading as an explainer for the U.S. economy. (axios.com)Why restaurants are still having a hard time finding workers. (washingtonpost.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsPodcast links: turning the table. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Thursday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Longform links: a source of envy. (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaTed Goia, "My conclusion isn’t just that ChatGPT is another con game—it’s the biggest one of them all." (tedgioia.substack.com)ChatGPT generates words, not necessarily facts. (theconversation.com)Why new technologies, like ChatGPT, end up adding work, instead of replacing it. (theatlantic.com)When it comes to generative AI, most people don't care about plagiarism. (veryfineday.substack.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturns4 hr. 54 min. ago Related News

Kotek"s proposed new liquor surcharge would hurt Oregon economy, industry lobby says

Gov. Kotek's proposed increase might not be popular with Oregon alcohol policymakers......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournals6 hr. 42 min. ago Related News

US stocks drop but end the week with strong gains after latest Fed move and mega-cap earnings

With about half of S&P 500 companies having reported fourth-quarter earnings, 70% of those companies beat profit estimates by a median of 6%. Traders work on the floor at the opening bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on March 18, 2020 in New York.Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty ImagesUS stocks fell on Friday but finished the week higher after a slew of market-moving news.The Fed hiked interest rates, mega-cap tech reported earnings, and the January jobs report surprised to the upside.The US economy added 517,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%.US stocks fell on Friday but finished the week higher after a slew of market-shaking news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gaining about 2% and 3%, respectively. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and acknowledged that central bank policymakers are making progress in taming inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled to investors that future rate hikes are still on the table.On Thursday, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon reported earnings results that mostly missed analyst estimates. They also offered mixed guidance. Alphabet and Amazon fell in Friday trades, while Apple gained about 3%. Finally, on Friday the January jobs report showed the US economy added 517,000 jobs in January, more than double the estimate of 188,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, representing the lowest level in 54 years. About half of S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter earnings. Of those companies, 70% are beating profit estimates by a median of 6%. Meanwhile, 62% of those companies are beating revenue estimates by a median of 4%, according to Fundstrat.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. ET close on Friday:S&P 500: 4,136.44, down 1.04%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 33,925.58, down 0.38% (128.36 points)Nasdaq Composite: 12,006.96, down 1.59%Here's what else happened today:Nordstrom soared more than 30% on Friday after a report said activist investor Ryan Cohen is building a stake in the retailer. Cohen is known for his involvement in meme-stock GameStop.The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell back near 6% in an encouraging sign for potential home buyers who were previously priced out of the market. The US Justice Department is reportedly investigating Silvergate Capital's ties with FTX and Alameda Research.Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the US economy could come to a "sudden stop" despite the strong January jobs report.Logan Paul has been named as a defendant in a lawsuit that alleges the YouTube star helped perpetrate a crypto "rug pull" scam by promoting an NFT-based project that scooped up buyers' money.In commodities, bonds and crypto:West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 3.36% to $73.33 per barrel. Brent crude, oil's international benchmark, dropped 2.82% to $79.85.Gold fell 2.69% to $1,878.80 per ounce.The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 10 basis points to 3.50%.Bitcoin fell 0.74% to $23,343, while ether rose 0.76% to $1,653. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider7 hr. 54 min. ago Related News

: Here’s why the jobs report was so good despite Big Tech layoffs

Amid a wave of Big Tech layoffs, the U.S. economy added more than half a million new jobs in January, the Labor Department said Friday. How did that happen?.....»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch8 hr. 10 min. ago Related News

These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets To Start The Year

These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets To Start The Year Markets got the year off to a stellar start in January, with a positive performance for 34 of the 38 non-currency assets tracked by Deutsche Bank thematic research group. In fact, in terms of the breadth of gains, that’s the strongest start to a year since 2019, with advances across equities, sovereign bonds and credit. The main exception to this pattern has been among energy commodities, but lower oil and gas prices have themselves been good news to consumers who’ve been squeezed by higher energy prices last year. Elsewhere, As DB's Henry Allen writes, Chinese assets have continued to perform strongly amidst the economy’s reopening, which has also supported a strong rally amongst industrial metals. Nevertheless, it hasn’t been all good news, with investors remaining nervous about a US recession, as well as the prospect of more persistent inflation. Below we share some more details from the latest DB January performance review Month in Review - The high-level macro overview 2023 got off to a positive start in January, with investor risk appetite supported by several good news stories. The most important was the decline in energy prices, particularly in Europe, where natural gas futures continued their decline from late December with a further -24.8% decline in January. That took them down to their lowest levels since September 2021, and means that the outlook for the European economy is much brighter than expected only a few weeks ago, prompting numerous economists to positively revise their forecasts and remove a Euro Area recession from their 2023 projections. This brightening picture has also been reflected in sentiment indicators, with the European Commission’s numbers for Euro Area consumer confidence at an 11-month high in January. The other positive story for markets in January was the continued reopening of China’s economy. Easing restrictions have made investors more optimistic on China’s economic performance, with the Shanghai Composite up +5.4% in total return terms. And more broadly, industrial metals prices have performed very strongly, with copper (+10.9%) advancing for a third consecutive month, raising concerns that China’s reopening could be inflationary for the global economy. The brighter macro outlook meant that various assets put in a very strong performance over January. For instance, the S&P 500 (+6.3%) had its best start to a year since 2019, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+6.8%) had its best start since 2015. Meanwhile for US Treasuries (+2.8%), it’s been their second-best monthly performance since March 2020, back when the Fed slashed rates to zero as the Covid pandemic began. Tech stocks saw a particularly strong performance following an awful 2022, with the FANG+ index of 10 megacap tech stocks up by +18.7%, marking its best month since August 2020. However, a more negative story over the month has been continued fears about a US recession. These were present from the start of the month, when the ISM readings showed that December was the first month since May 2020 that both the services and manufacturing components were in contractionary territory. Then both the retail sales and industrial production data for December came in beneath expectations. And lastly, the Conference Board’s Leading Index showed a year-on-year decline of -6.0%, which historically has been consistent with either recessions or the recovery from recessions. Other leading indicators such as the yield curve remained deeply inverted too, with the 2s10s closing in inversion territory for a 7th consecutive month. A final theme over the month was growing speculation that central banks might be nearing an end to their current cycle of rate hikes. That was turbocharged by the weak ISM services index for December at the start of the month, and then the US CPI release for December cemented expectations that the Fed would downshift to a 25bps move at their February meeting. Similar themes were evident elsewhere, with the Bank of Canada formally announcing a pause in their rate hikes for the time being. That said, nervousness about stronger-than-expected inflation was still evident, and the end of the month saw a modest sell-off on the penultimate day amidst fears that the central bank meetings in February could see a continuation of their hawkish stance. Which assets saw the biggest gains in January? Equities: January was a positive month for all the major equity indices, including gains for the S&P 500 (+6.3%), the STOXX 600 (+6.8%), the Nikkei (+4.x%) and the Shanghai Composite (+5.4%). Certain sectors like tech did particularly well, with the NASDAQ up +10.7%. European banks also outperformed, with the STOXX 600 Banks index up +14.1% in its strongest January since data begins in 1987. Sovereign Bonds: After an awful 2022 performance, sovereign bonds have had a very strong start to the year, with gains for US Treasuries (+2.8%), Euro Sovereigns (+2.4%) and UK gilts (+2.8%). For US Treasuries, it marks their second-strongest monthly performance since the height of the pandemic in March 2020. Credit: All the credit indices we follow were in positive territory over January, although as with sovereign bonds, EUR credit underperformed USD and GBP credit. The biggest gain was for USD fin sub (+4.4%), where the gain was more than double that for EUR fin sen (+2.1%). Metals: China’s reopening was a big support for industrial metals in January, with copper up +10.9% in its third consecutive monthly advance. In the meantime, gold advanced a further +5.7%, which brings its gains over the last 3 months to +18.0%, and marks its strongest advance over 3 calendar months since August 2011. EM Assets: Emerging markets put in a strong month over January, with the MSCI EM equity index up +7.9% for its strongest start to a year since 2019. Other EM assets also outperformed, with EM bonds up +3.9%, and EM FX up +2.5%. Cryptocurrencies: Having struggled in 2022, crypto assets have had a much better start in 2023. Bitcoin was up +38.8% over the month to $22,951, which is its strongest monthly performance since October 2021. The gains were widespread elsewhere, with Ethereum (+31.5%) and Litecoin (+32.9%) seeing significant advances as well. Which assets saw the biggest losses in January? Energy Commodities: Natural gas prices have declined significantly since the start of the year, with European futures (-24.8%) and US futures (-40.0%) seeing big falls over January. Oil prices have also lost ground, with Brent Crude (-1.7%) and WTI (-1.7%) both down slightly. US Dollar: The dollar index (-1.4%) fell for a 4th consecutive month for the first time since 2020. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 15:20.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt8 hr. 54 min. ago Related News

All That Recession Talk Is Looking More and More Like CEO Fear-Mongering

The U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, making CEO worries about a downturn seem paranoid. The CEOs were subdued when announcing the headline-grabbing layoffs in recent weeks. They blamed, mostly, one thing: an impending economic downturn. The CEO of PagerDuty, a cloud computing company, said on January 24 the organization was eliminating 7% of roles “to weather today’s economic uncertainty,” despite the fact that the company had sustained “high growth” over the last two years and improved its operating margins. Amazon decided to eliminate 18,000 roles “given the uncertain economy,” CEO Andy Jassy told employees on Jan. 4. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on Nov. 9 that the company would cut 11,000 employees because of the “macroeconomic downturn.” [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] The question many economists were asking today (Feb. 3), though, was: What economic downturn? January’s unemployment rate was 3.4%, a 50-year low, as the U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—more than double the 188,000 that economists had expected. Aside from the information sector, which contains both tech and media and lost 5,000 jobs from last month, just about every other industry added thousands of jobs—or hundreds of thousands, in the case of leisure and hospitality companies. “I’m concerned that business leaders are looking around and seeing that everyone else is taking preventative measures, and so they’re taking preventative measures too,” says Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at Lightcast, a labor market data analytics company. “There’s a risk of us talking ourselves into a recession as everyone pulls back just a little bit.” A recession is a “significant decline in economic activity” that is spread across sectors and lasts more than a few months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and is officially determined by the agency. But many of the data points that the NBER uses to call a recession, including job growth and gross domestic product, have been strong of late. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, following a 3.2% growth-rate in the third quarter. And there were 11 million job openings in December 2022, the government said earlier this week, more than in any of the four previous months. That is to say, by most standard metrics, the U.S. economy is doing just fine. And the parts that have looked weak are directly related to how CEOs are feeling. About 98% of CEOs surveyed by the Conference Board going into the fourth quarter of 2022 said that they expected a U.S. recession. The reasons why are not entirely clear, but could be related to how the federal government has responded to recent inflation. Many economists cite inflation as the reason to worry about a recession, since the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates to fight inflation, making the cost of borrowing higher. But inflation is also a sign that the economy is pretty strong. Inflation happens, by and large, when too much money is chasing too few goods; in recent months U.S. consumers flush with cash spent so much money that companies couldn’t keep up. (Arguably CEOs contributed to inflation as well by increasing prices.) The Federal Reserve responded over the last year by raising interest rates at the fastest rate since the 1980s. That makes money more expensive to borrow—for consumers who might want to buy cars or homes, but also for big companies. And that may help explain the CEO fear-mongering a little bit more. Since around 2010, interest rates have been at rock-bottom levels, making the cost of borrowing money extremely low for companies. Rising interest rates have made it more expensive for companies to borrow at the same time that a tight labor market has forced them to raise wages. Workers made $33.03 an hour in January, on average, according to the Bureau of Labor statistics, up from $31.63 a year ago. As a result, companies “are not willing to take the same risks as before,” says Crofoot. CEOs have been rewarded for being risk-averse in recent months. After announcing its job cuts, Amazon’s share price has gone up 25%, partly buoyed by its report this week that the company saw sales grow 9% in the fourth quarter to $149.2 billion. In its recent earnings report, Meta also reported higher revenue than analysts had expected. Its share price is 75% higher than it was on Nov. 9, when it announced layoffs. Some 11,000 Meta employees may have lost their jobs, but Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth has bounced back, too, as a result. He’s now worth around $70 billion, according to Bloomberg, about $20 billion more than he was back in November when he warned of an economic downturn......»»

Category: topSource: time9 hr. 10 min. ago Related News

Dow Drops Over 150 Points; US economy Adds 517,000 Jobs In January

U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones dropping over 150 points on Friday. The Dow traded down 0.51% to 33,881.69 while the NASDAQ fell 1.32% to 12,039.79. The S&P 500 also fell, dropping, 0.98% to 4,138.89. Check This Out: Check Out 3 High-Yielding Dividend Stocks In Industrials Sector From Benzinga's Most Accurate Analysts   Leading and Lagging Sectors Energy shares slipped by just 0.1% on Friday. Meanwhile, top gainers in the sector included TORM plc (NASDAQ: TRMD), up 6%, and NGL Energy Partners LP (NYSE: NGL), up 6%. In trading on Friday, real estate shares dipped by 3%.   Top Headline The US economy unexpectedly added 517,000 jobs in January, the most since July, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.4% in January.   Equities Trading UP ReShape Lifesciences Inc. (NASDAQ: RSLS) shares shot up 122.2% to $14.00 after the company filed ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzinga9 hr. 10 min. ago Related News

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth On Pushback From White House, Capital Expenditure

Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) CEO Michael Wirth on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” (M-F 6AM – 9AM ET) today, Friday, February 3rd for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, California. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth On Pushback From White House, Capital Expenditure Q4 2022 hedge fund […] Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) CEO Michael Wirth on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” (M-F 6AM – 9AM ET) today, Friday, February 3rd for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, California. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth On Pushback From White House, Capital Expenditure if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   All references must be sourced to CNBC. Wirth On Financial Priorities We actually are doing exactly what the White House is calling for. We’re staying consistent with our financial priorities and financial framework that we’ve long had for decades which is first to prioritize the dividend. We increased it 6% the 36th year in a row for dividend increases. We increased organic capital spending this year 30% above what it was last year, keep a very strong balance sheet and when we have cash excess for those needs, we return it to the owners of the company. Wirth On Repurchase Program We had a prior repurchase program that was authorized five years ago when we were repurchasing at about $5 billion a year and the program was a $25 billion program. We’re a stronger company this year. We’re repurchasing at $15 billion a year, a five-year execution on that plan would be $75 billion dollars. Wirth On Production Growth We’re growing at 3 to 4% production growth over the next several years. The demand for oil and gas is growing about 1% so we’re actually growing at a rate much faster than market demand. Wirth On China We’re starting to see signs out of China that there’s more activity that will drive demand. So you’re seeing a significant increase in airline flights being scheduled, so these are forward flights. We’re seeing road traffic and road congestion. There’s a number of different ways you measure this use of public transportation, people are moving around. Supply chains are restarting, businesses are restarting. I spoke to people in Davos that run businesses in China that are ramping up production so we do see indicators that the Chinese economy is beginning to grow and beginning to come out of the restrictions that it’s been under......»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk9 hr. 10 min. ago Related News

Help My Career: How does a recruiter find a job for himself? This man sent out 39 applications in less than a month, but he’s not giving up: ‘I’m just throwing as many darts at the board as I can’

The jobs report showed the economy added 517,000 jobs in January, nearly three times most estimates.......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch9 hr. 26 min. ago Related News

Mortgage rates are falling back near 6%, reopening the housing market for 3 million home buyers, according to Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates slipped after the Fed's softer rate hike this week, a sign that conditions in the housing market are easing slightly. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Mortgage rates have eased closer to 6%, a sign the housing market is cooling off. Lower rates open the market to 3 million borrowers who'd been priced out, according to Freddie Mac. Markets expect the Fed to stop hiking rates, which could help mortgages become more affordable.  Mortgage rates are falling back near 6%, and that could help reopen the housing market to about 3 million buyers who were priced, according to Freddie Mac.The government-sponsored enterprise said that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched lower to 6.09% on Thursday, notching its fourth-straight week of declines. That's the lowest rates have been since peaking at over 7% in November of last year, Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said in a statement."This one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, which is the median home price," Khater added.Mortgage rates skyrocketed over the course of 2022, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate hikes aimed at taking some heat out of the economy.The Fed hiked rates another 25 basis-points on Wednesday, dialing back from the previous 50 basis-point hike in December. Investors are beginning to price in the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle in the coming months, which could lower interest rate volatility and cause mortgage rates to ease. Other areas of the housing market are also showing signs of picking back up. Home builder sentiment is rising, and lumber prices have jumped 33% since the start of the year as buyers dip back into the housing market. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in another mild 25-basis-point hike from the central bank in March, which would bring the Fed funds rate target to 5%-5.25%. But despite the steady easing of conditions in the housing market, some experts are still warning of a 2008-style housing crash, which could entail home prices plunging as the housing market undergoes a correction. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel expects home prices to fall 10%-15%, and Goldman Sachs recently warned four major cities in the US could see a housing implosion on par with the last financial crisis. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt9 hr. 42 min. ago Related News

Biden"s labor secretary says he"s watching tech layoffs closely, but for now it"s still a good time to find a job

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said he's not sure if the tech layoffs will be an issue for just a couple of months, or a longer-term situation. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Labor Secretary Marty Walsh during an event in the Rose Garden of the White House September 15, 2022 in Washington, DC.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Labor Secretary Marty Walsh told Insider he's watching tech layoffs closely. Even with thousands of layoffs, data shows that the job market and hiring is still booming. Walsh said there's a lot of opportunities out there, and that employers should focus on retention. The job market is booming, even if it doesn't feel like it. The country added over half a million jobs in January, well above economists' expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since 1969.It might feel contradictory, with thousands of layoffs sweeping across the tech and media sectors. But the data shows that layoffs are not spreading to the broader economy, indicating that some sectors are just dealing with their own adjustments.Even so, Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh is keeping an eye on the situation."We're watching that closely to see what that means for the tech sector," Walsh told Insider. "I'm not sure if this is a couple of months issue or is this a longer term situation, but we're watching that closely." Walsh said that "we're seeing a lot of those folks who are being laid off are going back to work in the private sector." Walsh is not sold that apocalyptic predictions about economic conditions are going to come true. While the economy probably won't add over half a million jobs every month, he said, gains have been consistently strong over the last 12 months."I'm not in the camp that we're heading towards a recession or downturn in the economy. There might be certain sectors that might be hit a little harder than others," he said. "We have to continue to watch this and, and hopefully we continue to see good, strong growth throughout the year."And for those who are laid off or job hunting, Walsh wants them to know that "there's work out there." Just look at today's report: Hospitality and business services are hiring an "incredible amount," he said, and there's "options out there for people."Other sectors Walsh sees opportunity in: Construction, especially with the bipartisan infrastructure bill doling out billions; healthcare, especially in eldercare and assisted living facilities; nursing; and cybersecurity.That doesn't mean that you should necessarily quit for a better deal. Even with over 4 million Americans quitting their jobs, Walsh doesn't want the emphasis to be on the Great Resignation — he said he doesn't believe in terms like that — but instead on companies shifting more towards retaining the workers that they do have."Ultimately, what we'd like to see is sustainability in the job place. I think a lot of employers are seeing that," Walsh said. That might be part of the reason that the jobs report is so robust, according to Walsh. Employers are keeping around people, rather than laying them off as they would have in the past."When companies had to lay people off at the beginning of the pandemic, they had a really hard time getting people back," Walsh said. "I think that the lesson is learned from that experience."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt9 hr. 42 min. ago Related News

Headlines about layoffs don"t mean you"re going to lose your job

There is a disconnect: Hard data is relatively strong, but consumer sentiment is weaker. "The vibes feel off," said one economist. What does the future hold?Hidesy/Shutterstock The US labor market looks strong, and yet news about mass layoffs dominates the headlines. Nearly 40% of US workers said they "are nervous about being laid off," per a LinkedIn survey. Insider spoke with experts about the potential for layoffs to spread. Spoiler: They probably won't. The US labor market looks stunningly strong, and yet it's hard to scan the headlines without feeling a tinge of worry about your job security.Big Tech companies including Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have collectively shed tens of thousands of workers amid a slowing economy. And the cuts keep coming — even in industries outside of tech. The chemical company Dow, for instance, laid off 2,000 employees; 3M, the maker of Post-it notes and Scotch tape, slashed 2,500 jobs; and Impossible Foods, which produces plant-based meat, trimmed 700. To be clear: Labor Department data shows that layoffs overall remain historically low and the latest jobs report shows growth is rock solid.But if the fear of losing your job hovers over you like a dark cloud, you're not alone. Nearly 40% of US workers said they "are nervous about being laid off," a LinkedIn survey of more than 2,000 US employees conducted in December found.What are the real chances of that happening? To find out, Insider spoke with three experts: Nick Bunker, the head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab; Wayne Cascio, an industrial-organizational psychologist at the University of Colorado; and Andrew Flowers, a labor economist at Appcast, the recruitment-advertising technology company. Highlights of what they had to say might help you sleep a little more soundly.How worried should we be about layoff contagion?Flowers: Recessions are psychological phenomena. They're about a loss of confidence in the future. In the tech sector, there was a collective awareness that companies were operating with a different outlook than they had been previously. Before, growth was the priority and there was lots of optimism — let's take advantage of low interest rates and hire a bunch of people. That sentiment flipped as the unit economics came under more pressure, along with higher interest rates and more consumer spending on services. Andrew Flowers is a labor economist at Appcast.Andrew FlowersAs for whether these layoffs spread into other sectors, the risk is not that business leaders will see what's happening in tech, get spooked, and say, "We need to batten down the hatches and lay off our people, too!" That's not the channel through which layoff contagion happens.The risk is if consumers get spooked. You're scaring me a little. What happens when consumers get jittery?Flowers: Over the last year, we've seen a disconnect between hard and soft data. The hard data, including GDP, has been relatively strong. But the soft data, including consumer sentiment, which is based on surveys, has been weaker. The fundamentals are good, but the vibes feel off.That's why some talk about a "vibe-session?" Flowers: There's potential for a recession to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. That could happen if consumers get nervous about the layoffs news. They'll think, "Maybe I won't go out to eat. Maybe I won't buy a new refrigerator." If their spending falls, the effect on the economy could cause contagion.Despite strong fundamentals, some people say they're stressed about the economy.AmazonWhy is there such a disconnect between what the data says about the economy and how we feel about it?Bunker: I get why people are voicing discontent — inflation is a lot higher than it's been in the recent past. But there's what people say and what they do. They say it's not great and they complain about it. But they're still quitting their jobs and going out to dinner. What people are doing is indicative of a strong economy.And by "people," do you mean CEOs, too? Are they operating in a way that's indicative of a strong economy?Bunker: Unfortunately, I can't read the mind of the CEOs. Economic growth is slowing down, but there's still growth. We could see a rise in layoffs if that takes a hit moving forward. But that would be based on economic growth, not based on what other CEOs are doing.That's encouraging. As long as fundamentals stay solid, we're not all in danger of getting pink slips, right?Cascio: You don't need to hit the panic button. In this tight labor market, the demand for talent is high and supply is limited. The last thing enlightened CEOs want to do is cut people when things look like they're turning south.So I guess we all should hope we work for an enlightened CEO then?Cascio: One of the things you want to look at is what your employer did in past downturns. Did they turn to layoffs during the financial crisis? What about in the tech wreck of 2001? Research shows that's the best predictor of future behavior. If they've done it once, they're going to do it again.I've been doing research on downsizing since the '90s and one thing is clear: Companies that move quickly to lay off their workers never outperform their competitors in the same field. If companies are doing layoffs to cut costs, there are better ways than cutting people.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt9 hr. 42 min. ago Related News

The economy is still at risk of a "sudden stop" despite January"s massive job growth, Larry Summers says

"It's as difficult as an economy to read as I can remember," former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said to Bloomberg. Larry SummersHyungwon Kang/ReutersLarry Summers warned that there could be a "sudden stop" in the economy this year.Summers made the comments after a strong January jobs report sent the unemployment rate to 3.4%."It's as difficult as an economy to read as I can remember," Summers told Bloomberg.The US economy could see a "sudden stop" and even fall off a cliff later this year, according to former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.That view stands in stark contrast to the strong January jobs report that was released on Friday, which showed job gains of 517,000, more than double the average economist estimate of 188,000.The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, its lowest level in 54 years."It's as difficult an economy to read as I can remember," Summers told Bloomberg on Friday. The big question, according to Summers, is whether the income generated by employees is going to be spent and help lift up the economy, or are companies about to conclude that they have too many employees and need to enact widespread layoffs.Layoffs have already hit the tech sector hard over the past few months, though they have been typically been a single digit percentage of a company's overall workforce. If the layoffs accelerate to other sectors of the economy, Summers expects the economy to see a "fairly sudden stop."Another question on top of Summers' mind is whether wage inflation continues to slow, or does it reaccelerate? Such a tight labor market would suggest that wage inflation could see a pick-up from here, especially after the January jobs report. And given that wage inflation is integral to overall inflation, it will help inform the Federal Reserve as to whether they need to continue with their interest rate hikes."The question now is whether that inflation is going to continue to decline rapidly," Summers told Bloomberg. If inflation sees a rebound, it would make a soft-landing in the economy much more harder to achieve.All of this means that the Fed doesn't have an easy job ahead of it, according to Summers.Policymakers are "recognizing that it's going to be very hard, and they're going to have to try to interpret the data month by month, and that there are a lot of surprises," Summers said. The Fed is now expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at both its March and April FOMC meetings, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt10 hr. 54 min. ago Related News

US job growth unexpectedly surges in January as economy adds 517,000 new positions

The Labor Department's January jobs on Friday report provided a snapshot of the labor market's health amid the Fed's aggressive interest rate-hike campaign......»»

Category: topSource: foxnews10 hr. 54 min. ago Related News

Biden slaps 20-year mining ban on Minnesota land, gives more power to China

Reps. Bruce Westerman and Peter Stauber, with policy expert Christopher Bedford, argue Biden's ban on Minnesota mining will put America and its economy "last.".....»»

Category: topSource: foxnews10 hr. 54 min. ago Related News

Warning Shot Fired!

Warning Shot Fired! Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com, Another warning shot across the bow just happened… I warned my readers a few weeks ago about how the Federal Reserve, in cooperation with giant global banks, has launched a 12-week pilot project to test the message systems and payment processes on the new CBDC dollar. A pilot project is not research and development. That’s already done. The pilot means that what I call “Biden Bucks” are here, and the backers just want to test the plumbing before they roll the system out on the entire population. That project is due to be completed next month. In other words, Biden Bucks are getting closer to becoming a reality for us all. Now there is another big development to keep you up to speed… This month, the Digital Dollar Project (DDP) released an updated version of its white paper called “Exploring a U.S. CBDC.” The project expanded the paper in order to examine central bank digital currency projects internationally, though its focus is still on the United States. Since its original white paper release in 2020, CBDC projects worldwide have increased from 35 to 114. Here is one statement in the updated paper: It [is] imperative that the U.S. government consider ways to maintain the use of the dollar in digital global payment systems and develop a strategy related to the use of alternative payment systems. Pigs in the Digital Slaughterhouse “Alternative payment systems” is simply a technical term for Biden Bucks, which means replacing the cash (“fiat”) dollar we have now. What’s this mean for you? Let’s first consider the kind of freedom that physical cash offers you. Above all, cash is untraceable and anonymous. When you buy something with cash, there’s no way to trace the purchase to you individually. In that sense, cash is like gold or silver. It doesn’t leave a digital fingerprint. And that’s why the government wants to eliminate cash — with cash out of the way, it can trace anything and everything. At that point, the pigs (all of us) will be in the slaughterhouse ready for the digital slaughter of negative interest rates. All of your money will be locked in the banking system. If you don’t want to spend your money, the government can punish you by imposing negative rates. It doesn’t want you saving your money. And in a completely digital world, what would stop the government from having individualized interest rates for every citizen? Biden Bucks would also allow for account freezes, tax withholding and outright confiscation in some cases. After all, this is a government-approved digital wallet without any access to physical cash as you know it now. You’re Just a Pawn When the government is in full control of your money, it opens up the door for manipulating the economy by using you as a pawn and your assets as chess moves. If they need to slow down the economy (as they are attempting to do now with increasing interest rates), they could freeze a certain percentage of your cash so you can’t spend it. If they feel the economy is too slow and needs a jolt of spending, they could punish people who are saving too much with a “spend it or lose it” policy. That’s the reality behind negative interest rates. It would make your money less truly your own and under government control. We are already seeing how many retailers are not accepting cash across America. Another thing about physical cash: It’s not hackable. Under Biden Bucks, all the data that the government will have on every aspect of your life would be a dream come true for hackers. Identity theft would become commonplace. And forget privacy. That would be a thing of the past. “Sorry, We Really Don’t Want to Do This to You, But We Have No Choice” What happens when physical cash is eliminated from any payment transactions? Imagine this alarming possibility… To further advance the climate change agenda, what if Joe Biden or his successor decided that gasoline needed to be rationed? Your Biden Bucks could be made to stop working at the gas pump once you’ve purchased a certain amount of gasoline in a week! They could justify it based on “national security concerns” or whatever, and that it’s something they just have to do. They’ll say, “We really don’t have a choice. We have to do it!” In other words, Biden Bucks would create new ways for the government to control how much you could buy of an item, or even ban certain purchases altogether. Government would keep score of every financial transaction you made. In a world of Biden Bucks, the government will even know your physical whereabouts at the point of purchase. It’s a short step from putting you under FBI investigation if you vote for the wrong candidate, buy the “wrong” reading material or give donations to the wrong political party. The Slippery Slope They may deny that this is part of some grand plan to control the population, that it’s just a way to make the financial system more efficient. The rest of it is just a conspiracy theory that only kooks believe. And they may mean it. They may not have bad intentions. But history clearly shows that once the government acquires a specific power, it will eventually use it to the fullest extent it can. And when corrupt people are running the government, they’ll use that power for political purposes, even if they might not set out to originally. The temptation is just too strong. If any of this sounds extreme, fantastical or otherwise far-fetched, well, it’s not. I simply invite you to look at what’s happening around the world. China is already using its CBDC to deny travel, employment and educational opportunities to political dissidents. Canada seized the bank accounts and crypto accounts of nonviolent trucker protesters last year. Nigeria put a cap on ATM cash withdrawals at $45 to promote digital payments. Don’t think that other governments, including the U.S. government, haven’t noticed. They have. The simple fact is “social credit scores” and political suppression will be even easier to conduct when Biden Bucks are completely rolled out in the U.S. With Biden Bucks, the government will be able to force you to comply with its agenda, like with the climate change example I mentioned above. Because if you don’t, they could turn off your money. But you can fight back. How? Get Physical One, I recommend keeping some physical cash at home or in a safe place. I wouldn’t recommend too much cash because the time may come when cash is declared illegal and you have 60 days to hand in your cash for digital credit. Handing in too much cash may cause you to be put on a watchlist from a tax or money laundering perspective, even though the money is yours and you obtained it legally. Second, buy some gold. Gold is a non-digital, non-hackable, non-traceable form of money you can still use. Also, one-ounce silver American Eagles are the best form of money for day-to-day transactions. These are ways to protect your freedom and your savings. The time to prepare is now, before it all hits. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 12:20.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt12 hr. 10 min. ago Related News

Stockman: What Inflation Would Look Like In A True Free-Market Economy

Stockman: What Inflation Would Look Like In A True Free-Market Economy Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com, There is nothing more substantive than Bernanke’s original finger-in-the-air proposition that the Fed needed a 200 basis point cushion in the inflation rate in order to steer the economy clear of the dreaded 0.0% inflation line, the other side of which allegedly amounted to a black hole of deflationary demise. But here’s the thing. There is not a shred of historical evidence that the US economy needs a 2.00% inflation guardrail to thrive, or any fixed rate of inflation at all. For instance, even during the most difficult period of the 20th century—from 1921 to 1946 when the US economy experienced the Roaring Twenties boom, the Great Depression bust and the WWII rebound—there was abundant net economic growth over the period as a whole, accompanied by zero inflation. In fact, the US economy nearly tripled in size during that quarter-century period. Real GDP expanded at a robust 3.64% per annum rate, and real GDP per capita rose by 2.55% per annum. By contrast, between the 2007 pre-crisis peak and 2021, real GDP grew at only half that rate (1.72% per annum), while per capita real GDP increased by just 1.04% per year. That was just two-fifths of the rate of annual gain during 1921-1946. Needless to say, it didn’t take any 2.00% inflationary guard rails to generate the salutary outcomes cited above for 1921-1946. The CPI index shown below posted at 542 in February 2021 and 541 a quarter century later in May 1946. Purchasing Power of the Dollar, 1921 to 1946 As it had unfolded, there was zero CPI inflation during the Roaring Twenties; a severe deflation during the Great Depression, which merely reversed the war inflation of 1915-1920; and then a return to the 1921 price level during the booming but regimented economy of WWII. Still, by the spring of 1946 the dollar’s purchasing power was 100% of what it had been in early 1921. It had not taken any net inflation at all to generate a near tripling of the nation’s economic output. The implication is straightforward. To wit, the Fed doesn’t need a pro-inflation target of 2.00% per annum. Nor does it need any of its other macroeconomic targets for unemployment, jobs growth, actual versus potential GDP or the rest of the Keynesian policy apparatus. All of those variables are the job of the people interacting on the free market, producing whatever outcomes their collective actions happened to generate. Indeed, macro-economic outcomes are not properly the business of the state at all. The Fed’s job is far more narrow. As originally conceived by its great architect, then Congressman Carter Glass, its mission was to keep the purchasing power of the dollar as good as the gold to which it was to be linked, and the banking system liquid and stable, as driven by the free market of borrowers and lenders. As we have explained on other occasions, Congressman Glass called this a “bankers’ bank” and the term could not be more diametrically opposed to the central planners’ bank of Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell and Brainard. As Carter Glass saw it, no academician needed to stick his finger in the air and divine an inflation target. Nor did any modeler need to goal-seek his/her equations until they suggested the optimum U-3 unemployment rate relative to an arbitrary inflation target. The fact is, the free market operating with sound gold-backed money was never inflationary. In that context, interest rates were also not a policy “tool” of the central bank, but the result of a market-clearing balancing of supply and demand. As Carter Glass had arranged it, the Fed was not allowed to own government debt, nor did it have an activist arm now known as the FOMC empowered to intervene in the money and capital markets by buying and selling debt securities. To the contrary, its avenue of operation was the discount window at the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks. The latter were authorized to advance funds to member banks, but only at a penalty spread above the free market interest rate, and also only on the basis of sound, self-liquidating collateral in the form of commercial paper that matured within a matter of months. Given this mechanism, the dynamics of Fed policy were the opposite of today. Under the Glassian arrangement, the Fed’s balance sheet was the passive consequence of free market activity by commercial bankers and main street borrowers, not a mechanism to proactively steer the level of aggregate commerce and business activity. Accordingly, the Fed’s value added stemmed not from wild-ass guesses about the inflation rate by PhDs like Lael Brainard, but from the grunt work of green-eyeshade accountants. Their job was to verify that bank loan collateral presented for funding at the discount window represented the obligations of sound borrowers, not speculators and high flyers, who would reliably repay under the terms of the underlying bank loan, thereby ensuring that the Fed’s discount loans would be repaid at term, too. What this meant was that the Fed’s balance sheet was intended to reflect the ebb-and-flow of decentralized commerce and production on main street, not a centralized judgment by 12 people gathered on the banks of the Potomac about whether inflation and unemployment were too high, too low or just right. That is to say, under the bankers’ bank arrangement the free market put an automatic check on CPI inflation. That’s because unsound speculative loans could not be easily made in the first place, since they were not eligible for discount at the Fed window. And if demand for even sound loans got too frisky, interest rates would rise sharply, thereby rationing available savings until more of the latter could be generated or demand for the former was curtailed. *  *  * The truth is, we’re on the cusp of an economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. And most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s exactly why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released a free report with all the details on how to survive an economic collapse. Click here to download the PDF now. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 13:00.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt12 hr. 10 min. ago Related News

Economic Report: Did the jobs report really show 517,000 new jobs? Maybe not, but the U.S. labor market is still red-hot.

Did the economy really add a whopping 517,000 new jobs in January? And is the U.S. labor market really that strong? Probably not......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch13 hr. 10 min. ago Related News

Punch-Drunk Investors Will Keep Ignoring Reality...Until It"s Too Late

Punch-Drunk Investors Will Keep Ignoring Reality...Until It's Too Late Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance Back in January 2020, I was pointing out that the coronavirus was going to wreak havoc on markets weeks before it ever happened. As I’ve noted many times on this blog, those days were immensely frustrating. I waited for a collective market ethos that only viewed the news through a backward looking rearview mirror, with the attention span of a fruitfly and the collective IQ of a wooden ping-pong paddle, to catch up to a news story that was unfolding and evolving, by the second, right in front of their eyes. The news - and the ensuing chaos it would create - couldn’t have been more obvious if it was bludgeoning the market over the head with a wooden club, Bamm-Bamm Rubble style. Ultimately, I was proven right in my prognostication when the market crashed in March, before the Fed came in and launched unlimited quantitative easing and the public started to wrap their head around the fact that Covid wasn’t necessarily a death sentence. Current markets seem hell-bent not just on once again ignoring the obvious right now, but spitting the obvious back in the faces of those who use reality as a guide to their decision making. And the real kick in the nuts is that the Fed, the broadest influencer of our economy and market sentiment, isn’t even a tailwind this time. On the contrary, it is a massive headwind. The market is simply still hanging around - like a Mortal Kombat character stunned, but still on his feet, waiting for the Fed to deliver the final blow. Old habits die hard. As I pointed out many times just over the last several weeks, it is difficult to break the psychology of market participants who have been conditioned to buy the dip without consequence for the last 15 years. So, in that respect, I’m not surprised the market is rallying despite economic reality. But to say that the market has been grasping for straws when it comes to reasons to rally would be a vast understatement. Take this week for instance. The market is rallying based on nebulous words Jerome Powell used or omitted from his presser on Wednesday despite the fact that he very clearly stated that more rate hikes were on their way. Its tea leaf reading on top of tea leaf reading, ignoring the very stark reality that interest rates are nearing 5%. There’s nothing to guess or speculate about with rates - they’re most certainly at their highest levels in decades. But instead of the market getting swallowing that pill in advance, we have seen short term whiplash higher in the form of a short squeeze, because there’s too many people that can’t believe the market isn’t responding to the obvious reality that our economy is slowing down and monetary policy isn’t going to help. In other words, these people got caught flat-footed by clearly seeing reality and being short the market as a result. Then, the market does the “wrong thing” by squeezing higher and all of a sudden these people have a crisis of confidence and are mired in FOMO, seduced by the idea that buying the dip is once again the comfort of investing strategy home that we can all return to, akin to a warm blanket and a fireplace on a wintry New England day. And as I said earlier this week in a portfolio/macro update, perhaps, for the very long term, buying the dip is the right plan. Will markets be decidedly higher 10 years from now? Probably. It doesn’t mean that the currency is going to hold up though, but that’s another discussion for another day. I talk about how I invest for this anyways here. But taking a mid-term view, I still believe that this week’s move is nonsensical. Market behavior today centers around ignoring reality. This is a product of 40 years of Fed intervention in markets. When you constantly have somebody at the ready to bail out the market the first half second one person feels discomfort, it creates a foundation of irrational expectations from investors, namely that things are always better than they seem. In my time in markets, I’ve listened to a decade of stories about how “king dollar will never die”, how the market will always go up and how the United States will continue to be the world’s super power, no matter what.  Those statements are made with certainty despite the fact that, mathematically, none of these things are certainties. In fact, just the opposite is true. And so the only way we can try to gauge how close we are to something eventually “breaking” and sending markets lower is to continue to follow the news, objectively, and think critically about it on our own. Get 50% Off: If you enjoy this write-up, consider becoming a paid subscriber. I can offer a 50% discount that is valid for life to anyone that uses this link for an annual plan: Get 50% Off Perhaps you are looking at the same group of facts that I am looking at and you have come to starkly different conclusions. If that’s the case, you likely made a lot of money over the last few weeks and I salute you – that’s what makes a market. However, the reality behind the scenes that the market continues to ignore doesn’t look as though it’s going to get any better anytime soon. I’ll spare you guys the lecture about how 5% interest rates are eventually going to cause the economy to implode. I’ve prattled on about this way too much and continue to believe that it’ll be the case, and that it’s only a matter of time. Let’s only take a look at what’s new. On Thursday night, Apple - the bellweather for tech stocks - reported awful earnings that missed expectations, a rarity for them. Google and Amazon did the same. As far as a gauge for technology stocks goes, that’s about as clear of an indication that we are going to get of an economy that’s slowing down and a technology sector where things are not OK. These reports stand at extremely stark odds with the 16% rally in the NASDAQ that has taken place to start 2023. For a restrictive monetary policy environment, these moves simply don’t make sense. Perhaps it is my fault for expecting that the market would understand and process this and act rationally – after all, the market never acts rationally. And I don’t want to prattle on again about the geopolitical risk I see heading into this year, either. But, for fuck’s sake, yesterday we found a goddamn Chinese spy balloon flying over Montana. The balloon was discovered right about the same time U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns was talking about China’s ambitions towards Taiwan: Burns said that the United States knew "as a matter of intelligence" that Xi had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of self-governed Taiwan by 2027. "Now, that does not mean that he's decided to conduct an invasion in 2027, or any other year, but it's a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition," Burns told an event at Georgetown University in Washington. "Our assessment at CIA is that I wouldn't underestimate President Xi's ambitions with regard to Taiwan," he said, adding that the Chinese leader was likely "surprised and unsettled" and trying to draw lessons by the "very poor performance" of the Russian military and its weapons systems in Ukraine. His concluding remarks were notable: “Competition with China is unique in its scale, and that it really, you know, unfolds over just about every domain, not just military, and ideological, but economic, technological, everything from cyberspace, to space itself as well. It's a global competition in ways that could be even more intense than competition with the Soviets was.” If you haven’t read my 2023 outlook, here it is summarized in two pieces: first is my 23 Stocks To Watch in 2023 which explains my macro view and what stocks I’m buying heading into the new year. The second is a piece I wrote a couple weeks ago about several catalysts unfolding that continue to act as waypoints, dictating to me that my thesis is on point - and a piece I wrote last Friday reaffirming additional waypoints. As I have said in many of my pieces, I strongly believe markets in 2023 are going to be driven by both a residual crash coming from this year’s rate hikes and then an eventual Fed pivot, with a fair amount of geopolitical risk on the side. When I put together the 23 Stocks To Watch In 2023 (Part 1 here, Part 2 here), I tried to keep all of this in mind - I wanted to create a somewhat diversified, risk adverse, plan for myself heading into the new year. Whether or not I’m right, we’ll know in about 12 months. So, anyways, I digress. I guess we can just add both balloons (the Chinese spy one, and the stock market bubble) to the long list of things that markets will continue to ignore until they cross the line from prophecies into action. Only at that point (when it’s too late) will the market be able to understand reality, and only because it is literally being forced into not ignoring it anymore. After all, how are you going to make the argument that China isn’t going to invade Taiwan while China is actually invading Taiwan? When it’s too late, the market will finally get it. This is what happened with Covid in February 2020, this is what happened when Lehman Brothers went under and the housing market crashed and this is what happened leading up to the tech bubble crash in the 2000s.  Markets never crash as warning beacons are making their way out. In the case of the housing market, the market didn’t crash when delinquencies started to tick higher, it just ignored it. In the case of the Covid crash, the market didn’t crash based on the news that Covid cases were spreading in the U.S., it just ignored it. In both cases, the market crashed once the the public was forced to confront the reality of what was happening, and I don’t expect 2023 to be any different. Bulls can have their last couple of weeks and their great start to 2023 and celebrate. If you’ve been a short term trader and have made money off this move, I commend you – it’s part of the reason why I like having long exposure in certain select names and sectors. But I still hold firmly in the camp that we are in unprecedented monetary territory and, most importantly, we are there without the backing of the central bank. We could argue over whether or not the next rate hike is going to be 25 basis points, 50 basis points or nothing at all, but it’s immaterial. Stocks are expensive on a PE and market cap/GDP bases, rates are already near 5%, and that’s that. Even cutting rates to zero tomorrow wouldn’t reverse a lot of the trends that have already started economically at this point - they would still have to play their way out of the system before the cut took hold of the economy. Like I said, if you’ve been a bull while I’ve been a bear over the last couple of months, you’ve made money. Congratulations. There’s two ways to look at what the market is doing over the last couple of weeks: either we have firmly shifted into a new era, where we are at the beginning stages of a bull market once again and the fundamentals have changed (this, obviously, I don’t think is the case), or we are drifting further and further off the path of reality, which will eventually only lead to a bigger snap back when the time comes and the market can no longer turn its a blind eye to the obvious, wretched financial reality our country faces. Thank you for reading QTR’s Fringe Finance. This post is public so feel free to share it: Share QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 09:45.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt13 hr. 26 min. ago Related News