The Fed Has Crossed The "Hard Landing" Rubicon So How High Will It Hike? One Bank Crunches The Numbers One month ago, a SocGen strategist calculated something remarkable: at a time when the Fed is warning of multiple 50bps hikes in coming FOMC meetings and Powell is threatening to take fed funds above neutral - somewhere in the great unknown zone between 2.0% and 4.5% - and even the gradually fading market consensus still expects just under 8 hikes this cycle... ... quant Solomon Tadesse calculated that according to his analysis, if the Fed i focused on preserving growth (at the expense of higher inflation), then Fed Funds will peak at just around 1.0%, which combined with a QT programme to the tune of about $1.8tn, means the Fed will very soon be forced to reverse. Furthermore, as Tadesse has since pointed out, with the Fed’s recent bold 50bp hike, "there does not seem much room left for manoeuvring for the desired soft-landing." He then echoes what we have been saying in recent weeks, namely that the "type of week-long market meltdown witnessed since the recent hike often precedes a policy about-face in line with our projection." Ok but what if having decided to push the US into a recession, growth be damned, the Fed is now focusing only and entirely on inflation?  After all, current rates are far, far below the prevailing CPI which is around 8%, and while many argue whether CPI has peaked, there is a significant possibility CPI could hit double digits in the coming months. This is the question that Tadesse addresses in his latest must-read note (available to pro subs in the usual place), in which he writes that "an inflation-fighting impulse is currently in the air, begging the question of what it could take to stamp out the current trend for good, even at the cost of a hard landing." According to the SocGen quant, given the rising inflation prints and accompanying political pressure, if the pro-growth tightening threshold is breached - which it likely will be as soon as the next FOMC meeting, making a hard landing inevitable, and unleashing the Fed in favor of a single-minded inflation-fighting policy stance, Tadesse's analysis suggests that it "could take overall monetary tightening of as much as 9.25% to arrest inflation, with the policy rate going up to 4.5% and the balance coming from QT of about $3.9tn, which would slash the current Fed balance sheet by about half." Here is some more detail from the SocGen quant on this potential "alternative" in which the Fed single-mindedly pursues inflation containment, going Volcker-style with accelerated rate hikes reminiscent of the 1970s and early 1980s, when the average MTE (tightening to easing) ratio was about 1.5x (left-hand chart below).: Such aggressive monetary tightening with a focus solely on inflation containment, even at the cost of inducing recession, according to our analysis, would require overall monetary tightening of about 11.6%. Given that rates have already been tightened by 2.5%, another 9.25% of monetary tightening might be expected via policy rate hikes and an aggressive QT program. The policy rate could go up by as much as 4.5%, with the remainder coming from QT (right-hand chart above). These projections are all before the 4 May rate hike of 50bp, which lowers the balance proportionately. At a rate of 12bp per $100bn of QT, this also amounts to a QT program of about $3.9tn, roughly equivalent to the net growth in the Fed’s balance sheet during the pandemic. An important caveat in the analysis is the presumption that current inflation levels resemble those of the late 1970s through the 1980s. As recent inflation prints are the highest in 40 years, this might be a reasonable assumption, particularly in reference to the rates seen in the early 1980s. In addition, in interpretating the results, there is an implicit assumption that the current inflation prints are persistent and demand driven. However, as our earlier analysis shows, the current inflation dynamics are driven both by transitory supply-related disruptions and demand-driven price pressures. Should the supply bottlenecks ease over time, the degree of monetary tightening needed to contain inflation through demand destruction could turn out to be lower. The above-left chart shows monetary policy frontiers (MPF). These are all the policy-rate hike and QT combinations that could generate the inflation-containing overall tightening of upwards of 9pp and the growth-conscious overall tightening discussed earlier, with the most likely outcomes of policy combinations identified with stars. Thus, our analysis suggests that while it might only take another 25-50bp for growth-conscious tightening to peak before a hard landing, an aggressive inflation-containing policy could mean additional policy rate hikes of up to 4.0pp. As noted earlier, the above analysis assumes that the Fed is resigned to a hard-landing. Does it mean that a soft-landing is now inevitable? Pretty much. Here is Tadasse again: In an earlier research note, we argued that if current monetary policy follows a pro-growth impulse, as has been the case over the past four decades, the current tightening phase could peak with only 0.75-1pp of rate hikes, combined with a QT program to the tune of about $1.8tn. After the Fed’s recent bold 50bp hike, there now does not seem to be much room left for manoeuvring toward a soft landing. Moreover, the type of week-long market meltdown witnessed since the hike has often preceded a policy about-face, which is what we expect. Summarizing the above, the SocGen quant writes that "monetary policy is thus at a crossroads, with a stark choice between a ‘growth’ conscious, albeit inflationary, rate-hike cycle, peaking after 300bp of tightening (with a mix of QT and FFR) or an inflation-containing, albeit recessionary, rate-hike cycle, peaking at about a 925bp of overall tightening (with a mix of 450bp in policy rate and the balance from QT)." And while there could be possibilities in between these two extremes, the middle ground may not, in general, be an admissible rational strategy. Such an intermediate path, plausible due to political pressure or a mid-course reversal in policy priorities between price stability and full employment, would likely fail to accomplish either mandate and could damage central bank credibility. What does this mean for traders? Nothing good - as Tadesse concludes, equity strategies do not fare well in scenarios of high inflation and declining growth (i.e. stagflation), as companies struggle with falling revenues and rising costs, lower growth causes lower earnings, and higher rates combined with an increase in the equity-risk premium negatively impact valuations. And while SocGen notes, that "cash flow and balance-sheet strength would matter for relative performance here", we would add that the real question is how fast does the market expect inflation to shrink back to the 2-3% range. The answer to that question will determine most investing strategies for the next year or so. For those unable or unwilling to answer, a simple heuristic is that strategies that pay high dividends at cheap valuations (such as quality income) should do well in this environment. So should equity strategies dominated by firms with pricing power, such as those in the upstream of the production chain, as should defensive equity strategies with stable cash flows and relative pricing power (such as utilities, the quality and quality income factors). Pair trades can use these as the long legs, offset with shorts among cyclical and aggressive growth strategies. The full note quantifying how high Powell will raise rates is available to pro subs. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 22:00.....»»

Maersk & Goldman Warns China Restart Will Spark Renewed Supply Chain Congestion A.P. Møller – Maersk A/S, the world's largest container shipping company by capacity, and Goldman Sachs' supply chain congestion analysis (in separate reports) indicate if China restarts, renewed supply chain congestion will be seen worldwide.  Maersk told its Asia-Pacific customers that China's zero COVID policy to lockdown Shanghai, the world's largest port and China's financial hub, for nearly two months, will "have an effect all over the world in the coming months."  For seven weeks, a massive parking lot of vessels has been building outside Shanghai ports as operations came to a crawl because of the lockdown of 26 million residents.  Since the lockdown began in late March, Goldman Sachs' weekly congestion index has slid as US West and East Coast port congestion plunged. This is because the trans-Atlantic volume of vessels from China to the US declined as port capacity was restricted due to lockdowns.  Maersk told clients, "statically speaking, the virus is under control," and this could soon indicate Chinese port capacity may expand and sailings could increase to the US, which will only complicate things down the line for US West Coast ports as a backlog of goods will flood US ports.  Goldman also agrees and warns: "We could see a resurgence of ship bottlenecks if sudden restarts in China lead to renewed sailings all at once." A forward leading indicator of Chinese port activity and if a resurgence of bottlenecks is ahead for the US are global container freight rates.  Weekly changes of the World Container Index show that when China went into lockdown, container rates for 40-foot boxes dropped.  By shipping lane, if there's a tick-up in freight rates between China and the US West Coast, then it would be safe to assume China is restarting.  If China restarts and container rates begin to rise, the countdown will be about 1-2 months until a massive backlog hits US ports, renewing port congestion right before midterm elections.  Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 23:00.....»»

California To Spend $5.2 Billion On 'Electricity Reserve' To Avoid Blackouts Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com, California has proposed spending $5.2 billion on creating a "strategic electricity reliability reserve" that would help the state avoid blackouts when its electric grid is stressed, a 2022-2023 budget revision document showed on Friday according to Bloomberg. California has weathered a fair amount of criticism over its electric grid, which contributed to rolling blackouts as recently as 2020. California warned last week that it could run into electricity shortages this summer with drought, heatwaves, and wildfires continuing to stress the grid. But renewables and California's electricity exports have also stressed the grid. The Reserve will be developed using existing generation capacity that was scheduled to retire, new generation, new storage projects, clean backup generation projects, customer side load reduction capacity that is visible to and dispatchable by CAISO during grid emergencies, and diesel and natural gas backup generation projects - which the budget document stressed would have emission controls and all required permits. Of note were two items in that list: "existing generation capacity that was scheduled to retire" and "diesel and natural gas backup generation projects". California is set to retire 6,000 MW of nuclear and gas-fired energy production. The Reserve will be capable of providing up to 5,000 MW that will be available whenever the grid is stressed. The new budget would also earmark $8 billion over five years to increase the state's system reliability and provide relief to consumers as electricity rates rise. The budget now calls for $22.5 billion in funds for the purpose of "climate resilience and integrated climate, equity, and economic opportunity across the state's budget to mobilize a coordinated all-of-government response to the climate crisis. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 23:20.....»»

Hamptons Pool Craze Has Some Homeowners Waiting Years For A Dip  Hamptons, New York's summer playground for Wall Street execs and Hollywood celebrities, has an extremely tight housing inventory -- following two years of city-dwellers fleeing cities for the cozy beach town. During the pandemic, residents expanded backyards and many desired luxury pools. There has been a backlog of pool building, with some residents waiting at least one year or more for their backyard oasis.  Pools and spas are in high demand that has inundated pool builders in the Hamptons. The pool industry has never had this much demand in the area, mainly due to the work-at-home lifestyle and influx of new residents.  Greg Darvin, the owner of East Hampton, New York-based company, Pristine Pools, told Bloomberg that massive backlogs and long waitlists would persist for the next few years. "If you haven't planned your 2023 pool yet, you're too late," he said.  Before the pandemic, Darvin said clients wouldn't commit until they were ready for a new pool. "Now we book one year ahead, and we immediately go into hard contract," he added.  Supply chain shortages and soaring material costs have also been an issue. "Now we buy anything we can find and store it," he added.  The high-end pool market hasn't slowed down (yet) and could remain robust through 2023. With so much pool building demand pulled forward in the last few years, the question remains what happens after 2024.  Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 23:40.....»»

A New York Times investigation included video that showed Ukrainian captives being marched in a single file while flanked by armed Russian troops. A Ukrainian serviceman walks amid destroyed Russian tanks in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, April 6, 2022.AP Photo/Felipe Dana, File A photo taken in Bucha in April showed a group of Ukrainian men who appeared to have been executed. A NYT investigation showed the men were in custody of Russian troops before apparently being killed. A video showed the Ukrainian captives being marched in a single file and flanked by Russian troops. Videos from Bucha, Ukraine, appeared to show a group of Ukrainian captives being led at gunpoint by Russian troops moments before they were executed.The videos, obtained and verified by The New York Times, were taken on March 4 by a security camera and a civilian who witnessed the ordeal.The security camera footage showed a group of nine Ukrainians hunched over, holding the pants of the person in front of them and some with their hands placed over their heads, crossing a street in a single file. Two Russian soldiers with guns can be seen at the front and back of the group, directing the line.Eight witnesses told The Times the captives were then taken behind an office building, gunshots were heard, and the group did not reappear. Additional drone footage obtained by The Times confirmed the witness accounts, showing the groups' bodies beside an office building as Russian soldiers stood over them.The videos were not independently verified by Insider.The group of apparently executed men from the videos were also seen in a photo taken April 3. The Times said its investigation, published Thursday, uncovered the "clearest evidence yet" that Russian forces intentionally executed the group, "directly implicating these forces in a likely war crime."Reports of atrocities and executions poured out of Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, after Russian forces began retreating in late March. Stories and images from Bucha fueled international calls for a war crimes trial against Russia.Russian officials have repeatedly dismissed reports of atrocities committed in Bucha, calling them "fake."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

People are heading off on vacation, despite a surge in cases and higher airfares globally US consumers are spending less on products and more on experiences — a trend that could ease supply snags and inflationary pressures, and help the travel industry this summer. For the first time since COVID halted movement around the world, leisure travel has returned to 2019 levels, according to a report released by the Mastercard Economics Institute. People are feeling more comfortable heading off to far flung adventures, despite a surge in cases and average airfares jumping 18% globally since the start of the year. “If flight bookings continue at their current pace, an estimated 1.5 billion more passengers globally will fly in 2022 compared to last year,” the report said, “with Europe seeing the biggest increase — about 550 million.” [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Read More: What to Do If You Test Positive for COVID-19 While Traveling Short and medium-haul flights are up 25% and 27% in April over the same period in 2019. Long-haul trips, which started the year 75% below pre-pandemic levels, rebounded to just 7% below 2019 by the end of April. Passenger rail is similarly close, with buses back to where they were. Spending on cruises started the year 75% off the 2019 peak and are now just 10% shy of a full recovery. Pent-up demand for experiences appears to be driving the wanderlust with tourist spending on nightclubs and bars up 72% above 2019 levels, restaurants up 31%, and other recreational activities like museum, concerts and amusement parks up 35%, according to the report. By comparison, tourist spending is down for retail goods like clothes and cosmetics. The report found the most popular international destination in March for travelers leaving North America was Mexico, and departing Europe, Middle East and Africa, was the UK. The US tops the list for those traveling from Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Asia-Pacific regions......»»

"Build Blackouts Better": Half Of America Faces Power Blackouts This Summer, Regulator Warns  Tens of millions of Americans could be thrown into a summer of hell as a megadrought, heatwaves, and reduced power generation could trigger widespread rolling electricity blackouts from the Great Lakes to the West Coast, according to Bloomberg, citing a new report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a regulatory body that manages grid stability.  NERC warned power supplies in the Western US could be strained this summer as a historic drought reduces hydroelectric power generation due to falling reservoir levels and what's expected to be an unseasonably hot summer. Compound the hellacious weather backdrop with grids decommissioning fossil fuel power plants to fight climate change and their inability to bring on new green power generation, such as solar, wind, and batteries, in time, is a perfect storm waiting to happen that will produce electricity deficits that may force power companies into rolling blackouts for stability purposes. The regulatory body pointed out that supply-chain woes are delaying major Southwest solar projects, while some coal plants have trouble procuring supplies because of increased exports. They said there's also an increasing threat of cyberattacks from Russia.  By region, the Midwest power grid will be extremely tight. Across the Western US, power generation capacity has declined 2.3% since last summer, even as demand is expected to increase. Grids in the region may have to source power from neighboring grids as extreme heat will cause people to crank up their air conditioners. A situation of low wind speeds could trigger blackouts, according to NERC. They outlined how the Midwest could face power shortfalls due to the removal of power capacity from retiring fossil fuel power plants.  NERC issued a similar warning last year, stating power grids that serve 40% of the US population were at risk of blackouts. One year later, there was only one notable blackout last June during a heatwave in the Pacific Northwest that left 9,000 customers without power. But with reduced electricity generation capacity outpacing new green power sources, the risks of blackouts are increasing this year.  In Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)has already warned multiple times of grid stress as early summer-like heatwaves sent temperatures in certain parts of the state into triple-digit territory.  California's grid operators have also warned of rising blackout threats --for the next three summers -- as the state transitions to greener forms of energy. The drought and shrinking reservoir levels have reduced hydroelectric power generation on top of decommissioned fossil fuel power plants. "We know that reliability is going to be difficult in this time of transition," said Alice Reynolds, president of the California Public Utilities Commission, during a May 6 press conference.  NERC's report is an eye-opener for those living in the Western US. Many households face out-of-control inflation, soaring fuel prices, and food shortages ahead of what could be a summer of unrest as the Biden administration is bracing for a wave of violence upon the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe V. Wade.  America is slipping into the abyss as households get a taste of what it's like to live in Venezuela. It's not that far off from what people are experiencing today: soaring inflation, shortages, a ruling regime which so many claim was not elected by the majority and soon, rolling blackouts.  Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 20:20.....»»

"We could give a rat's rear end about his sexuality. It was about the absolute hypocrisy," David Wheeler, a Democrat and the American Muckrakers PAC's co-founder told Insider. Rep. Madison Cawthorn, R-N.C.Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images American Muckrakers PAC posted a sexually explicit video of a nude Madison Cawthorn with another man. Some saw the video as an appeal to homophobia, but the cofounder said that's not true. "We could give a rat's rear end about his sexuality. It was about the absolute hypocrisy," the cofounder said. The group that posted a sexually explicit video of a nude Madison Cawthorn with another man in bed is denying it tried to evoke homophobia to oust the North Carolina member of Congress.Members of the American Muckrakers PAC, also known as FireMadison.com, sat on the recording for the better part of a week, taking time to consider whether they were being duped, whether any minors were in the video and whether they would break any North Carolina laws by posting it, its cofounder told Insider. Whether the video would spark a homophobic response wasn't part of their discussions, he said."It had nothing to do with his sexuality," David Wheeler, a Democrat and the PAC's co-founder told Insider. "We could give a rat's rear end about his sexuality. It was about the absolute hypocrisy of somebody that holds himself to be above everybody and then has somebody film him in a hotel room."Some people didn't take it that way.Clay Aiken, the former American Idol star and North Carolina Democrat, told BuzzFeed News that he was "pissed" about the viral video, which showed a naked Cawthorn in bed thrusting his pelvis at the other man's head. "The idea that anybody would gay-shame someone in order to try to embarrass him in that district and then call themselves a Democrat, I think is ridiculous," said Aiken, whose bid to become the first openly-LGBTQ member of Congress from the South ended with his primary loss on Tuesday.Fire Madison played a key role in exposing damaging information about Cawthorn, who lost his Republican primary in North Carolina to state Sen. Chuck Edwards on Tuesday. The group led by Wheeler and co-founder, retired Air Force Col. Moe Davis, who ran against Cawthorn in 2020, revealed Cawthorn's attempt to take a gun through the Asheville Regional Airport last year. They also filed a complaint accusing Cawthorn of violating US House ethics rules by allegedly providing free housing and gifts to a staff member.'We just couldn't sit on it'"Fire Madison made it clear that they would put anything out and they did," said Christopher Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University. The video "definitely caused a lot of people to think … that they were gay-baiting and that they were playing on tropes of homophobia. Whether they did that or not, I think people can decide for themselves but it was definitely that accusation."A Cawthorn spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.Wheeler, a former state Senate candidate, and Davis both ran for office as Democrats and lost in 2020. Cawthorn defeated Davis in the general election by 12 percentage points, and Davis has since changed his registration to "unaffiliated," Wheeler said. The group counts some Republicans among its advisors.They have heard criticism of their decisions, Wheeler said, and they get "a little defensive" about it. He noted that they were both endorsed in their 2020 bids by Equality North Carolina, the country's oldest statewide LGBTQ rights organization, and they have "no track record of homophobia." "It's the antithesis of what we were trying to do," he said. "I don't know why people would see that versus the hypocrisy."Their April 27 ethics complaint highlighted a video of the Cawthorn staffer appearing to reach for Cawthorn's crotch from the backseat of a car. It also includes a Venmo history of suggestive messages between the two men."That's against House rules, to have a relationship with a member of the US House staff," Wheeler said. "That's all we were pointing out."Equality North Carolina declined to comment when Insider reached out.Cawthorn came under fire for claiming he was invited to orgies in Washington and he attacked "radical expressions of sexuality" in a House floor speech about gender issues. He was called out for hypocrisy after POLITICO published photos of him in women's lingerie. "He looks down on gay and lesbian folks and criticizes their lifestyle, criticizes who they are, criticize who they love," Wheeler said.Cawthorn called the lingerie photos "goofy vacation photos" from a cruise game. He responded to the nude video released by the PAC, saying "I was being crass with a friend, trying to be funny. We were acting foolish, and joking. That's it."Wheeler said he received the nude video from an anonymous source – a former supporter and donor of Cawthorn's – but he said he would never reveal the person's name.The video had been shopped around to "dozens" of media organizations and he hoped someone else would have posted it, he said."In the public interest, we just couldn't sit on it," he said. "We just felt that this video and his hypocrisy needed to be pointed out."Fire Madison's email host asked them to take it down, which they did. Wheeler said the ActBlue fundraising site removed the group from its website and he thinks the PAC may file a lawsuit.Rather than the video, Wheeler said their more effective hit against Cawthorn was the Asheville airport gun incident."I think that put us on the map" as a credible source, he said. With Cawthorn's primary behind them, the group is turning next to an attempt to oust Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert in her June 28 primary. Wheeler said they already have information against her dealing with financial matters, though he declined to provide more details.On Thursday, they launched fireboebert.com, seeking tips on information, pictures, videos, or documents on Boebert or her associates. The first tweet by @FireBoebert reads, "Hi @RepBoebert - Ask @RepCawthorn about us. We look forwarding to getting to know you."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

SpaceX paid a flight attendant $250,000 in severance after she accused Elon Musk of exposing himself and offering to buy her a horse in exchange for a sexual massage. Elon Musk was accused of sexual misconduct by a SpaceX flight attendant.Andrew Kelly/Reuters A flight attendant for SpaceX said Elon Musk asked her to "do more" during a massage, documents show. The billionaire founder exposed his penis to her and offered to buy her a horse, according to claims in a declaration. After she reported the incident to SpaceX, Musk's company paid her $250,000 as part of a severance agreement. SpaceX, the aerospace firm founded by Elon Musk, the world's wealthiest man, paid a flight attendant $250,000 to settle a sexual misconduct claim against Musk in 2018, Insider has learned.The attendant worked as a member of the cabin crew on a contract basis for SpaceX's corporate jet fleet. She accused Musk of exposing his erect penis to her, rubbing her leg without consent, and offering to buy her a horse in exchange for an erotic massage, according to interviews and documents obtained by Insider.The incident, which took place in 2016, is alleged in a declaration signed by a friend of the attendant and prepared in support of her claim. The details in this story are drawn from the declaration as well as other documents, including email correspondence and other records shared with Insider by the friend.According to the declaration, the attendant confided to the friend that after taking the flight attendant job, she was encouraged to get licensed as a masseuse so that she could give Musk massages. It was during one such massage in a private cabin on Musk's Gulfstream G650ER, she told the friend, that Musk propositioned her.After Insider contacted Musk for comment, he emailed to ask for more time to respond and said there is "a lot more to this story.""If I were inclined to engage in sexual harassment, this is unlikely to be the first time in my entire 30-year career that it comes to light," he wrote, calling the story a "politically motivated hit piece."Insider extended the deadline and reiterated the offer to Musk to comment on the claims. He did not respond.Reached via cell phone, SpaceX vice president of legal Christopher Cardaci said, "I'm not going to comment on any settlement agreements." SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment to its general media contact email address.An allegation that Musk offered a horse in exchange for an erotic massageThe flight attendant told her friend that the billionaire SpaceX and Tesla founder asked her to come to his room during a flight in late 2016 "for a full body massage," the declaration says. When she arrived, the attendant found that Musk "was completely naked except for a sheet covering the lower half of his body." During the massage, the declaration says, Musk "exposed his genitals" and then "touched her and offered to buy her a horse if she would 'do more,' referring to the performance of sex acts." The attendant, who rides horses, declined and continued with the massage without engaging in any sexual conduct. The attendant "is not for sale," the friend's declaration said. "She is not going to perform sexual favors for money or gifts." The incident occurred during a flight to London.In an interview with Insider, the friend described the attendant's allegations in more detail. She spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing fears for her personal safety, but Insider is aware of her identity. Insider is also aware of the flight attendant's identity, but is not naming her because she has claimed to be a victim of sexual misconduct. She declined to comment for this story."He whipped out his penis, it was erect," the friend said, describing the allegations. "And he started propositioning her, like he touched her thigh and told her he would buy her a horse. And he basically tried to bribe her to perform some sort of sexual favor.""Punished for refusing to prostitute herself"The friend said that the attendant told her about the misconduct while they were on a hike together shortly after the London trip. The friend described the attendant as distraught and visibly shaken. "She was really upset," the friend said. "She didn't know what to do."The flight attendant told her friend that work began to dry up after she refused Musk's advances. "Before the incident, she regarded Mr. Musk as a person to look up to," the declaration says. "But after he exposed himself, touched her without permission, and offered to pay her for sex, she was full of anxiety." "She figured things could just go back to normal and she would pretend like nothing happened," the friend told Insider. "However, she started to feel as if she was receiving some sort of retaliation where her shifts were cut back, and she was starting to feel really stressed."Eventually, the declaration says, the attendant felt "she was being pushed out and punished for refusing to prostitute herself."The living room inside a Gulfstream G650ER like the one used by Musk.Courtesy of Gulfstream Aerospace CorporationMassages on demandSpaceX places a special emphasis on massages, going so far as to employ in-house massage therapists as a perk for executives. According to the friend, the flight attendant was encouraged by her superiors to purchase her own professional massage training for her sessions with Musk. "They encouraged her to get licensed as a masseuse, but on her own time, on her own dime," the friend said. "They implied that she would get to fly more often if she were to do this because she'd be able to give Elon proper massages. I thought that was kind of strange because — you weren't hired to be a masseuse. You were hired to be a flight attendant. And if Elon likes massages, then he should be paying for you to go to masseuse school. But she was just so happy and eager to have the job and be able to travel."A $250,000 severance paymentIn 2018, after becoming convinced that her refusal to accept Musk's proposal had diminished her opportunities at SpaceX, the attendant hired a California employment lawyer and sent a complaint to the company's human resources department detailing the episode. Around that time, the attorney's firm contacted the friend and asked her to prepare the declaration corroborating the claims.The attendant's complaint was resolved quickly after a session with a mediator that Musk personally attended. The matter never reached a court of law or an arbitration proceeding. In November 2018, Musk, SpaceX and the flight attendant entered into a severance agreement granting the attendant a $250,000 payment in exchange for a promise not to sue over the claims.The agreement also included restrictive non-disclosure and non-disparagement clauses that bar the attendant from ever discussing the severance payment or disclosing any information of any kind about Musk and his businesses, including SpaceX and Tesla.Musk is currently engaged in a bid to purchase Twitter driven by his professed belief that "free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy." Earlier this month, he wrote on Twitter that "sunlight is the best disinfectant."Twitter did not respond to a request for comment."When you choose to remain silent, you become part of that system"The friend told Insider that she decided to come forward without consulting the flight attendant because, as a survivor of sexual assault, she felt an obligation to share what she has been told about Musk. Unlike the flight attendant, her friend is not bound by any non-disclosure agreement."I absolutely felt a responsibility to come forward with it, especially now," she said. "He is the richest man in the world. Someone with that level of power causing that kind of harm and then throwing some money at the situation, that's not accountability. There are predators all over the world. But when someone is particularly wealthy and powerful, they literally have systems that are like a machine working for them, to set them up to be able to do whatever they want."Remaining silent, the friend said, would make her complicit. "When you choose to remain silent, yeah, you do become a part of that system," she said. "You do become a part of that machine that allows someone like Elon Musk to continue to do the horrible things that he's done."Non-disclosure agreements are crucial components of that machine. The friend said that before she reached out to Insider, she called the attorney who represented the victim. The attorney told her that, although she was free to speak to the press, sharing any documents from the case — including her own declaration — could put the flight attendant at risk."Her primary concern was clearly her client," the friend said. She recalled the attorney saying that confidentiality provisions are "bullshit" and that if any other women have been victimized by Musk, they ought to come forward. But when it came to her client, the attorney urged the friend not to share the declaration. "That would be a massive problem," she told the friend.California, where SpaceX is headquartered, no longer permits companies to require non-disclosure clauses in agreements like the one the attendant signed. Just months after her settlement in 2018, then-Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law the "Stand Against Non-Disclosure Act," which bars the use of NDAs going forward in settlements involving sexual harassment, discrimination, or assault unless they are requested by the plaintiff.The attorney did not respond to requests for comment."If there were a way for [her] to come forward without putting herself at risk, without jeopardizing her life in any way, I believe she would," the friend of the attendant told Insider. "I hope she feels like I did the right thing. I hope she feels I said the things that she didn't feel safe enough to say.""I would like for the truth to be revealed"This is the only known allegation and settlement for sexual misconduct tied personally to Musk. Two of his companies, however, have faced allegations of sexual harassment in the past. In December 2021, the same week he was named Time's Person of the Year, four women who worked at SpaceX spoke out about sexual harassment they said they faced at the company, where Musk is the CEO. One, Ashley Kosak, published an essay recounting being groped and touched inappropriately by male employees while she was an intern. Three others — one of whom said she was bound by a non-disclosure agreement — recounted similar treatment to the New York Times.In response to the reports, SpaceX president and chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell sent a company-wide email saying that "timely reporting of harassment is key to our maintaining SpaceX as a great place to work; we can't fix what we don't know," the Times reported. She added that SpaceX will "rigorously investigate all harassment or discrimination claims and take rapid and appropriate action when we find our policy is violated."And at least six women have sued Tesla, where Musk is the CEO, alleging sexual harassment at a Tesla factory. Men at the factory ogled women and remarked on their clothes, the complaints said, leading some women to wear baggy outfits and use stacks of boxes to obstruct the views of leering co-workers. Some of the women claimed they were retaliated against when they came forward.The friend told Insider that if anyone else was mistreated by Musk, she hopes they will publicly tell their story. If there are other victims, she said, "I would like for them to come forward. I would like for the truth to be revealed."Do you have important information to share about Musk, SpaceX, or his other companies? Contact us at investigations@insider.com.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Thursday was the fourth day Jacksonville's largest credit union's online and mobile banking were unavailable, with no ETA on when they will come back online......»»

Border Patrol Union Leader Warns Of "Complete Control" By Cartels Once 'Title 42' Ends Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The head of the Border Patrol union warned that drug cartels would seize “complete control” of the southern border, as a Trump-era public health order to expel illegal immigrants is to expire on Monday. “That we just don’t have anybody in the field, that we just can’t patrol the border,” National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd said during Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom,” after being asked about the “worst-case scenario” once the law ends on May 23. National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd at a border meeting in Del Rio, Texas, on July 18, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) He said the Border Patrol system is running out of capacity as overwhelmed border agents will be largely held up by processing asylum-seeking illegal immigrants, either refereeing their claims or expelling them back to their home countries. “When you look right now, we already start our shifts with 50 percent of our resources not even performing enforcement activities. They’re in administrative duties. Once this explodes, we’re going to have nearly 100 percent of our people doing administrative duties rather than enforcement duties.” “That’s going to give complete control to the cartels. That’s a scary situation to be in,” he added. Judd was referring to Title 42, a COVID-19-era policy implemented during the Trump administration in March 2020 to quickly expel illegal immigrants on public health grounds. The measure has so far blocked over 1.7 million illegal aliens at the U.S.–Mexico border in the past two years, yet is set to expire on May 23 under President Joe Biden, given that public health conditions have changed. According to a May 16 court document filing, U.S. border officials encountered more than 234,000 illegal immigrants at the U.S.–Mexico border in April, with 96,908 deported back to Mexico under Title 42. It topped March’s 22-year high of just over 221,000 illegal immigrants and marked the fourth time that monthly border encounters have topped 200,000 under Biden. The border crisis “clearly began” the time Biden took office in January 2021, according to Senate Minority Whip Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). “If he ends Title 42 policies next week, we’re going to need a much taller chart,” he said in a May 18 Twitter post. “By empowering the Cartels instead of @CBP [Customs and Border Protection], Biden is actively threatening the health and safety of our communities,” said Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), the ranking member on the National Security subcommittee, on May 17. Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.) said the same day that “only the cartels are happy” about the lift. The Biden administration has said it is preparing for scenarios of up to 18,000 encounters per day when the order lifts. Both Republicans and moderate Democrats, including those in tough races for November midterms, have warned about the lack of a comprehensive plan to tackle the potential immigrant inflow at the border once Title 42 lifts. During a visit to the southwest border in the Rio Grande Valley on May 17, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said his department is prepared for the ending of Title 42. “That does not mean that the border is open beginning on May 23,” Mayorkas said. “We continue to enforce the laws of this country. We continue to remove individuals who do not qualify for relief under the laws of this country.” The annual deportation has fallen dramatically under Biden. In the financial year 2021, just over 59,011 were deported, compared to about 185,884 in 2020 and 267,258 in 2019, according to data released by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Haitian migrants continue to cross across the U.S.–Mexico border on the Rio Grande as seen from Ciudad Acuña, Coahuila state, Mexico, on Sept. 20, 2021. (Paul Ratje/AFP via Getty Images) An April Convention of States Action and Trafalgar Group poll (pdf) said a majority of American voters, including nearly two-thirds of Hispanic voters, believe the Biden administration should close the southern border until a solution is reached. U.S. District Judge Robert Summerhays, a Trump appointee, had earlier granted a temporary restraining order blocking the administration from terminating the Title 42 emergency border powers. The Biden administration has requested the federal judge, according to judicial notice, to make a decision on the lawsuit by Friday “to avoid uncertainty that could pose operational challenges.” “The Biden administration is scrambling five days before their own deadline to end Title 42 because President Biden’s open border policies have created, in the words of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, an ‘unsustainable’ crisis for our country,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told Fox News in a statement. The Department of Homeland Security and the White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 18:00.....»»

Investors Run To Cash, S&P 500 Enters Reversal We recently saw a headline that made us ask “what?!?” because it said an uptrend in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) had been confirmed. Our take on the market is that not only has the near-term downtrend in the S&P 500 been confirmed but that a major reversal […] Investors Run To Cash, S&P 500 Enters Reversal We recently saw a headline that made us ask “what?!?” because it said an uptrend in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) had been confirmed. Our take on the market is that not only has the near-term downtrend in the S&P 500 been confirmed but that a major reversal in the market has been confirmed as well. You can blame it on what you want: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation, supply chain hurdles, rising rates, the FOMC, or the threat of recession and you would be basically right. The reason for the reversal is because of earnings and all of those other factors play into the S&P 500’s earnings power. We’ve already been tracking a downturn in the outlook for earnings growth, after this week’s reports from the retail sector we think that trend is going to accelerate and bring the entire market down with it. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Technical Picture Is Clear, The S&P 500 Is In A Downtrend The S&P 500 has been in a downtrend since hitting the all-time high at the turn of the year. That downtrend was confirmed over the past two weeks when the index broke through a major support level to set a new low and then bounce back to confirm resistance at that level. That level is the 4,100 level and the fall was confirmed by the indicators as well. Both the stochastic and the MACD are showing bearish crossovers that have ample room to run which suggests prices will wallow at current levels or move lower. The scary part of this assessment is that the near-term downtrend is part of a much larger and more powerful price pattern that has also been confirmed.   We’ve been tracking a reversal in the S&P 500 since early in the year. The index made a push to new highs that was met by selling and broke the uptrend that had been in place since the pandemic bottom in 2020. At that time, the question was, is this a trend change from up to sideways or a full reversal in prices and it looked, at least for a while, as if up to sideways was the answer. The problem now is that a Head & Shoulders Reversal pattern has formed and the break to new lows confirms it as such. Price action rebounded from the new low but, as mentioned before, the rebound met resistance at the 4,100 level which just happens to be the neckline of the pattern. Where Does The S&P 500 Go From Here? Where the S&P 500 goes from here is a tough call but the trend is definitely downward. The first targets we get are derived from the near-term downtrend. The most recent downtrend began at the 4,550 level and hit support at 4,100 which gives a magnitude of 450. Subtract 450 from 4,100 to get a target near 3,650. That target is coincident with the market consolidation in early 2021 and a viable target for a rebound or bottom to form. In the short to mid-term, the index could fall a little further based on the magnitude of the Head & Shoulders Pattern itself. That pattern is worth 700 points in movement and could take the index down to the 3,400 level. 3,400 is coincident with the 2020 top and consolidation so another good target for a rebound, relief rally, or bottom. If that doesn’t hold, the next target is near the 2,800 level and the long-term uptrend that we’ve been tracking for the last 13 years. It is our opinion that, unless something changes drastically very soon, the S&P 500 will move down to that level. Should you invest $1,000 in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust right now? Before you consider SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust wasn't on the list. While SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust currently has a "Hold" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. Article by Thomas Hughes, MarketBeat Updated on May 19, 2022, 5:28 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Deals like Apollo's stake in "Dune" producer Legendary are heating up M&A in Hollywood. Insider identified 10 companies that could be acquisition targets in 2022. Kevin Hart.Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic/Getty Abry Partners' $100 million stake in Kevin Hart's company HartBeat is the latest big M&A move in Hollywood. Dealmakers said production companies are valuable amid the streaming wars and demand for content. Insider identified 10 companies that are attractive acquisition targets as consolidation continues. The streaming wars have spurred a period of frenzied dealmaking in Hollywood. Amazon kicked off a major round of M&A last May with its $8.45 billion offer for 97-year-old studio MGM. In the year since, several entertainment companies have sold pieces of their business, including Reese Witherspoon's Hello Sunshine and Will Smith and Jada Pinkett Smith's Westbrook Inc. to Blackstone-backed Candle Media.Joe and Anthony Russo's AGBO sold a stake in January to South Korean video game publisher Nexon. In March, Sony Pictures Television announced it would take a majority stake in Industrial Media — known for reality TV hits like TLC's "90 Day Fiancé" — in a deal valuing the company at $350 million. And STX Entertainment was acquired by the Najafi Companies in April for around $157 million, according to the Hollywood Reporter.In the latest deal, Kevin Hart's new media venture, HartBeat, announced that private equity firm Abry Partners was taking a $100 million minority stake in the business, which combines his HartBeat production shingle and digital comedy platform Laugh Out Loud. Thai Randolph stepped up as CEO of the company after leading the fundraise.The M&A activity had top Hollywood dealmakers telling Insider in early 2022 that practically every independent production company is a target.Private equity firms are leading the pursuit, especially when it comes to talent-fronted shingles, because they see value in investing in content before the streaming service boom plateaus — and demand for original programming along with it. Apollo in January took a $760 million stake in "Dune" producer Legendary, in a move that "is about us making our own IP," Apollo partner Aaron Sobel told Insider. "You're going to be seeing us do M&A and there's much more that's going to happen," he said."More traditional media companies are trying to pivot," said Waymaker Law founder Ryan Baker, adding that periods of disruption foment more M&A activity because it's "quite common for entrenched incumbent players tied to existing technology to not be as nimble" and they can often adapt more quickly by buying than building.Not only does the appetite for production capabilities appear insatiable, but valuations also are sky-high. Hello Sunshine, whose projects include Apple TV+ drama "The Morning Show," was valued at $900 million in its Candle Media deal. SpringHill Co., founded by LeBron James and Maverick Carter, nabbed a $725 million valuation when it took on an investment from a group including RedBird Capital, Nike, and Epic Games. 'The key is buying franchises.'Such targets aren't being evaluated as traditional production companies, but rather as IP generators that have the potential to feed the demand for the next "Squid Game" or "Yellowstone," projects built with DNA that could anchor universes and also extend beyond the screen. "Original content is becoming more important and you want to bring a lot of the production capabilities in house," said Pivotal entertainment analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak. "The key is buying franchises." All that deal flow is leading some Hollywood companies to hang "for-sale" signs. Village Roadshow, the producer of "Joker" and "The Lego Movie," has hired PJT Partners to seek investment or acquisition offers, per the Wall Street Journal.The limited set of larger production businesses that make attractive acquisition targets, sources said, includes A24, Skydance Media, and MRC. But among smaller shops, having a talent affiliation is key. A production company without a big-name is more like an arms dealer, a top dealmaker said, and typically lacks the potential to expand into multiple verticals — or to command a top-tier valuation. Celebrity-fronted businesses come with their own risks. If the talent isn't interested in expanding beyond filmed entertainment, the value of the deal declines. And if a star's reputation falters, the business could slip with it. Not all independent shops control the IP they create. Many production companies make work-for-hire or don't control the rights to a project once it is sold off to a studio distributor. Still, some buyers are game to pay for access to the next big idea from, say, creators like the Russo brothers, even though their reputation was built largely on "The Avengers" — aka Marvel IP — said another dealmaker who asked to remain anonymous.Based on January interviews with five entertainment industry experts and insiders, Insider identified a list of 10 production companies that could be compelling acquisition targets as M&A activity continues.10 Hollywood M&A targets with production capabilities and brand recognitionA24 The company led by CEO David Fenkel and chairman Daniel Katz has long been the subject of acquisition speculation thanks to its lineup of buzzy titles, including Greta Gerwig's "Lady Bird" and best picture Oscar winner "Moonlight." A24 — which also produces TV shows like "Ramy" — has a production deal with Apple and a film licensing agreement with Showtime.   Array Ava DuVernay's company produces, markets, and distributes films from women and people of color. Array also is behind DuVernay projects like Netflix series "Colin in Black & White" and has a deal with the streamer to release film projects including 2021 dramedy "Donkeyhead." Bad Robot J.J. Abrams and wife Katie McGrath's 23-year-old shop is behind everything from HBO drama "Westworld" to the next installment of the "Mission: Impossible" franchise. Though Bad Robot doesn't own the rights to those titles, Abrams is such an in-demand creative talent that WarnerMedia in 2019 paid a reported $250 million for a five-year film and TV overall deal with him. Blumhouse Jason Blum's shingle has perfected its model of producing horror films on a tight budget, projects that reap big gains when they hit with audiences. Consider 2021's "Halloween Kills," which made more than $131 million at the box office, amid COVID fears and restrictions, on a $20 million budget. A 10-year first-look deal with Universal Pictures that runs through 2024 bodes stability for Blumhouse's film business.Chernin Entertainment Peter Chernin's company — which produced NBC's "New Girl" and the rebooted "Planet of the Apes" film series — is said to be exploring strategic options. It has a first-look deal with Netflix, and in 2020 it struck a deal with Spotify to develop its podcasts for film and TV. Imagine Entertainment Previously a target for Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs' Candle Media, the production company co-founded by Ron Howard and Brian Grazer was in talks early this year to sell a stake to London-based Centricus, WSJ reported. Its recent films include "Hillbilly Elegy" and "Tick, Tick…Boom!" for Netflix. Scout Productions The 28-year-old company led by Michael Williams, David Collins and chief creative officer Rob Eric has driven some of the highest-profile LGBTQ+ projects in Hollywood, including "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" and its "Queer Eye" reboot on Netflix.Seven Bucks Productions Led by Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and Dany Garcia, Seven Bucks produced "Red Notice" for Netflix and has the upcoming "Black Adam" for Warner Bros. It also makes content for Johnson's YouTube channel, where he has 5.89 million subscribers. Skydance Media David Ellison's production shingle is behind the upcoming "Top Gun: Maverick" and is teaming with regular producing partner Bad Robot on "Mission: Impossible 7" and "Star Trek 4." The company — which has taken investments from RedBird Capital, Korea's CJ ENM, and Tencent — will produce a slate of live-action films for Apple, where it already has an animated film and TV series deal. Village Roadshow The film producer and financier majority owned by private equity firm Vine Alternative Investments is best known for Warner Bros. co-productions including "The Matrix Resurrections" and "Joker." The company, which is led by CEO Steve Mosko, recently has been focused on producing its own original films. This article was originally published on January 27 and has been updated, most recently on May 19.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Over a two-week period, Yuliia Paievska filmed the rescue efforts of a small team in Mariupol and smuggled the footage to AP journalists. Yuliia Paievska captured an image of herself in a bathroom mirror.AP/screengrab A Ukrainian medic smuggled footage of Mariupol's horrors to AP reporters before they left the city. Yuliia Paievska's footage showed her tending to wounded Ukrainians — and even Russians. A day after she snuck out the video, Russian forces abducted her. Her whereabouts are unknown. A Ukrainian medic was captured by Russian forces in mid-March after sneaking out video evidence of the war's devastation.Yuliia Paievska — known in Ukraine as Taira — recorded 256 gigabytes of harrowing and graphic footage from a helmet camera in Mariupol over a two-week period during Russia's siege on the city, the Associated Press reported on Thursday.Taira, 53, handed off the camera card to an AP team. The team of journalists — one of whom hid the evidence in a tampon — made their way through over a dozen Russian checkpoints before they escaped the strategic southern port city in a humanitarian convoy, the report said.Taira was captured by Russian troops the next day, the report continued. Russian broadcasters aired a video of her and accused her of trying to flee the city in disguise. She hasn't been seen since.The footage, published in Thursday's report, documents the efforts of Taira's team to save the lives of wounded Ukrainians — and even Russians. In one video, a team of medics could be seen trying to save a young boy's life. He didn't survive, and Taira turned away — placing a bloodied hand on a wall. The helmet footage picked up sounds of her sobbing, as medical devices beeped in the background. She then shut the boy's eyes.  Another video published by the AP showed Taira removing bloodied gloves from her hands, before moving to footage of her hustling down a hallway behind first responders as they pushed a stretcher.The following frame showed Taira tending to the wounded and bloodied face of a man — opening his eyelid with extreme caution as he took deep breaths.  More footage from Taira's helmet camera showed a soldier being carried away on a stretcher, before cutting to a shot of a soldier's bloodied face getting bandaged by medics. In the next frame, medics performed CPR on an unidentified person. Since her abduction, a website was published showing how long Taira has been in Russian captivity since March 16 — 65 days and counting. Efforts between Ukraine and Russia to involve her in a prisoner swap have stalled. Her husband, Vadim Puzanov, told the AP that he had little to no knowledge of her whereabouts or condition. The website said Russian state media had tried to use Taira in disinformation and propaganda campaigns."Accusing a volunteer medic of all mortal sins, including organ trafficking, is already outrageous propaganda — I don't even know who it's for," Puzanov said.Medics, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities have consistently been targeted by Russian forces throughout the three-month war.Editor's Note: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated how the camera footage was smuggled out of Mariupol, Ukraine. The camera card was handed off by the medic to a team of AP journalists, one of whom hid it in a tampon.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

US Says Iran Deal "Far From Certain" After EU Scrambled To Save Nuclear Talks The Iran nuclear talks in Vienna have largely dropped from the news given they've been stalled for months, after delegations returned to their capitals. Iran said there was nothing more to do and that a finalized restored JCPOA deal was within reach, only that it was up to Washington - which it accused of stalling. The Biden administration has meanwhile stopped just short of declaring the negotiation dead altogether, while also lately issuing vague statements that it hadn't shut the door. The European Union has meanwhile scrambled to save the process while emphasizing it's back on. Via Reuters EU officials have held extensive meetings in Tehran: "Enrique Mora, the senior EU official coordinating the nuclear talks, traveled to Iran in an effort to overcome a seven-week stalemate in talks between the U.S., Iran and Western powers. Senior Western officials told Politico that the discussions, which spanned Wednesday and Thursday, created new progress, but that an agreement remained far from certain." The latest out of the State Department is that the US remains committed to seeing a deal come through. Spokesman Ned Price on Tuesday still stressed that a deal is "far from certain." "We and our partners are ready. We have been for some time. We believe it is now up to Iran to demonstrate its seriousness," Price stated, in what was the first official admin comment since the EU meetings with Iranian officials to salvage the deal. But currently the Washington and Tehran sides still see the ball in the other's court, suggesting a stalemate is still on. "At this point a deal remains far from certain. Iran needs to decide whether it insists on extraneous conditions and whether it wants to conclude a deal quickly, which we believe would serve all side's interests. We and our partners are ready, and have been for some time. It's now up to Iran," a US admin official told Reuters. One key incentive for the Biden administration is a return to Iranian oil supplies on the global market. Currently the US is even seeking to bring Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro 'in from the cold' at a moment the EU is mulling a Russian oil embargo, which the White House is encouraging. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 17:00.....»»

Massive Pandemic Unemployment Insurance Fraud Still Being Stonewalled By State Of Illinois Authored by Mark Glennon via Wirepoints.org, How unemployment claims were mismanaged during the COVID pandemic is shaping up as a historic fiasco. It’s therefore no surprise that the State of Illinois is stonewalling the facts about its share of the problem so aggressively. Nationwide, the scope of unemployment insurance fraud during the pandemic is stunning. Estimates of how much state governments wrongly paid out during the pandemic reach as high as $400 billion, which is fully half of the total $800 billion paid out, as reported by NBC. The latest official estimate is $163 billion lost to fraud, which is from the U.S. Department of Labor in March. Illinois’ share of that loss to fraud is unknown because the state won’t tell us, but it could easily be $6.5 billion, which would be its share of the Labor Department’s estimated loss. As far back as June 2021, the Chicago Tribune reported that “if the amount tracks with national estimates, it could involve billions of dollars.” For months, some Illinois reporters have hounded the responsible Illinois agency for answers. That’s the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES). But neither it nor the Pritzker Administration has provided any useful answers on how much was lost, why or how it can be stopped in the future. The most recent chapter came last week in a Freedom of Information Act response by IDES  reported by CBS Chicago. “The agency has historically refused to publicly disclose the scope of pandemic-related unemployment fraud,” CBS said, and it FOIAd for tracer reports on one particular slice of the fraud story, which is known payments to legitimate recipients that somehow got intercepted by fraudsters. CBS had to go to the Illinois Attorney General to force an answer out of IDES, and the response showed at least 1,000 records of intercepted payments. That’s as if IDES merely threw CBS a bone. It tells us little because we have no idea how many other instances of intercepted payments occurred or how much fraud in other forms occurred, such as by claimants who were fictitious to begin with. And the CBS Chicago FOIA request only covered the period from March 1, 2021 through Nov. 30, 2021 — a timeframe in which in which CBS says “IDES sources said they began to see fraud numbers spike.” Why CBS would trust IDES on that is a mystery since the entire point is that IDES either doesn’t know or is hiding fraud numbers. Some other states have been far more open about efforts together to get to the bottom of pandemic unemployment fraud. In Ohio, for example, the state’s top auditor estimates their fraud losses at about $5 billion and says openly, “The system failed at almost every conceivable level.” California publicly posts its data on estimated losses and other unemployment fraud data. But in Illinois, we get almost nothing. About the only number IDES and the Pritzker Administration have provided is their unverified claim that they stopped some one million fraudulent claims. That’s nice, but what matters is how many they didn’t stop, how it happened and how to fix it. The biggest reward that will come to states that have been open and honest about the fraud problem is that they likely will better control it the next time an emergency demands massive unemployment assistance. In Illinois, we can expect mistakes to be repeated. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 17:20.....»»

Fiscal third quarter revenue grew 29% year over year to $1.4 billion Fiscal third quarter billings grew 40% year over year to $1.8 billion Remaining performance obligation grew 40% year over year to $6.9 billion SANTA CLARA, Calif., May 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), the global cybersecurity leader, announced today financial results for its fiscal third quarter 2022, ended April 30, 2022. Total revenue for the fiscal third quarter 2022 grew 29% year over year to $1.4 billion, compared with total revenue of $1.1 billion for the fiscal third quarter 2021. GAAP net loss for the fiscal third quarter 2022 was $73.2 million, or $0.74 per diluted share, compared with GAAP net loss of $145.1 million, or $1.50 per diluted share, for the fiscal third quarter 2021. Non-GAAP net income for the fiscal third quarter 2022 was $193.1 million, or $1.79 per diluted share, compared with non-GAAP net income of $139.5 million, or $1.38 per diluted share, for the fiscal third quarter 2021. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP information is contained in the tables below. "We saw strong top-line growth in Q3, which is a testament to our teams' consistent execution in capitalizing on the strong cybersecurity demand trends," said Nikesh Arora, chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks. "On the back of this strength across our portfolio, we are again raising our guidance for the year across revenue, billings and earnings per share." "Our drive to deliver strong total shareholder return in Q3 was headlined by our revenue growth, while we also balanced operating margin expansion and free cash flow conversion," said Dipak Golechha, chief financial officer of Palo Alto Networks. "We look forward to continuing this balance as we close out the year and look to FY23." Financial Outlook Palo Alto Networks provides guidance based on current market conditions and expectations. For the fiscal fourth quarter 2022, we expect: Total billings in the range of $2.32 billion to $2.35 billion, representing year over year growth of between 24% and 26%. Total revenue in the range of $1.53 billion to $1.55 billion, representing year over year growth of between 25% and 27%. Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $2.26 to $2.29, using 106 million to 108 million shares outstanding. For the fiscal year 2022, we are broadly raising guidance and expect: Total billings in the range of $7.106 billion to $7.136 billion, representing year over year growth of between 30% and 31%. Total revenue in the range of $5.481 billion to $5.501 billion, representing year over year growth of approximately 29%. Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $7.43 to $7.46, using 106 million to 107 million shares. Adjusted free cash flow margin in the range of 32% to 33%. Guidance for non-GAAP financial measures excludes share-based compensation-related charges (including share-based payroll tax expense), acquisition-related costs, amortization expense of acquired intangible assets, litigation-related charges, including legal settlements,  non-cash charges related to convertible notes, and related foreign currency gains (losses) and income and other tax effects associated with these items, along with certain non-recurring expenses and certain non-recurring cash flows. We have not reconciled diluted non-GAAP net income per share guidance to GAAP net income (loss) per diluted share or adjusted free cash flow margin guidance to GAAP net cash from operating activities because we do not provide guidance on GAAP net income (loss) or net cash from operating activities and would not be able to present the various reconciling cash and non-cash items between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures because certain items that impact these measures are uncertain or out of our control, or cannot be reasonably predicted, including share-based compensation expense, without unreasonable effort. The actual amounts of such reconciling items will have a significant impact on the company's GAAP net income (loss) per diluted share and GAAP net cash from operating activities. Earnings Call Information Palo Alto Networks will host a video webcast for analysts and investors to discuss the company's fiscal third quarter 2022 results as well as the outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter 2022 today at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time/1:30 p.m. Pacific time. Open to the public, investors may access the webcast, supplemental financial information and earnings slides from the "Investors" section of the company's website at investors.paloaltonetworks.com. A replay will be available three hours after the conclusion of the webcast and archived for one year. Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions including statements regarding our ability to balance future revenue growth with operating margin expansion and free cash flow, and our financial outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter 2022 and fiscal year 2022. There are a significant number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from statements made in this press release, including: developments and changes in general market, political, economic, and business conditions; the duration and global impact of COVID-19; risks associated with managing our growth; risks associated with new products and subscription and support offerings, including the discovery of software bugs; shifts in priorities or delays in the development or release of new subscription offerings, or the failure to timely develop and achieve market acceptance of new products and subscriptions as well as existing products and subscription and support offerings; rapidly evolving technological developments in the market for security products and subscription and support offerings; our customers' purchasing decisions and the length of sales cycles; our competition; our ability to attract and retain new customers; our ability as an organization to acquire and integrate other companies, products, or technologies in a successful manner; the effects of supply chain constraints and the global chip and component shortages and other factors affecting the manufacture, delivery, and cost of certain of our products; our ability to obtain adequate supply of our products from our third-party manufacturing partners; our debt repayment obligations; and our share repurchase program, which may not be fully consummated or enhance shareholder value, and any share repurchases which could affect the price of our common stock. Additional risks and uncertainties that could affect our financial results are included under the captions "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on February 22, 2022, which is available on our website at investors.paloaltonetworks.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Additional information will also be set forth in other filings that we make with the SEC from time to time. All forward-looking statements in this press release are based on information available to us as of the date hereof, and we do not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements provided to reflect events that occur or circumstances that exist after the date on which they were made. Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Other Key Metrics Palo Alto Networks has provided in this press release financial information that has not been prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (GAAP). The company uses these non-GAAP financial measures and other key metrics internally in analyzing its financial results and believes that the use of these non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics are useful to investors as an additional tool to evaluate ongoing operating results and trends, and in comparing the company's financial results with other companies in its industry, many of which present similar non-GAAP financial measures or key metrics. The presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for comparable GAAP financial measures and should be read only in conjunction with the company's consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of the company's historical non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures has been provided in the financial statement tables included in this press release, and investors are encouraged to review these reconciliations. Non-GAAP net income and net income per share, diluted. Palo Alto Networks defines non-GAAP net income as net income (loss) plus share-based compensation-related charges, including share-based payroll tax expense, acquisition-related costs, amortization expense of acquired intangible assets, litigation-related charges, including legal settlements, gains (losses) related to facility exit, and non-cash charges related to convertible notes. The company also excludes from non-GAAP net income the foreign currency gains (losses) and tax effects associated with these items in order to provide a complete picture of the company's recurring core business operating results. The company defines non-GAAP net income per share, diluted, as non-GAAP net income divided by the weighted-average diluted shares outstanding, which includes the potentially dilutive effect of the company's employee equity incentive plan awards and the company's convertible senior notes outstanding and related warrants, after giving effect to the anti-dilutive impact of the company's note hedge agreements, which reduces the potential economic dilution that otherwise would occur upon conversion of the company's convertible senior notes. Under GAAP, the anti-dilutive impact of the note hedge is not reflected in diluted shares outstanding. The company believes that excluding these items from non-GAAP net income and net income per share, diluted, provides management and investors with greater visibility into the underlying performance of the company's core business operating results, meaning its operating performance excluding these items and, from time to time, other discrete charges that are infrequent in nature, over multiple periods. Billings. Palo Alto Networks defines billings as total revenue plus the change in total deferred revenue, net of acquired deferred revenue, during the period. The company considers billings to be a key metric used by management to manage the company's business and believes billings provides investors with an important indicator of the health and visibility of the company's business because it includes subscription and support revenue, which is recognized ratably over the contractual service period, and product revenue, which is recognized at the time of shipment, provided that all other conditions for revenue recognition have been met. The company considers billings to be a useful metric for management and investors, particularly if sales of subscriptions continue to increase and the company experiences strong renewal rates for subscriptions and support. Investors are cautioned that there are a number of limitations associated with the use of non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics as analytical tools. In particular, the billings metric reported by the company includes amounts that have not yet been recognized as revenue. Additionally, many of the adjustments to the company's GAAP financial measures reflect the exclusion of items that are recurring and will be reflected in the company's financial results for the foreseeable future, such as share-based compensation, which is an important part of Palo Alto Networks employees' compensation and impacts their performance. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures are not based on any standardized methodology prescribed by GAAP, and the components that Palo Alto Networks excludes in its calculation of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from the components that its peer companies exclude when they report their non-GAAP results of operations. Palo Alto Networks compensates for these limitations by providing specific information regarding the GAAP amounts excluded from these non-GAAP financial measures. In the future, the company may also exclude non-recurring expenses and other expenses that do not reflect the company's core business operating results. About Palo Alto Networks Palo Alto Networks, the global cybersecurity leader, is shaping the cloud-centric future with technology that is transforming the way people and organizations operate. Our mission is to be the cybersecurity partner of choice, protecting our digital way of life. We help address the world's greatest security challenges with continuous innovation that seizes the latest breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, analytics, automation, and orchestration. By delivering an integrated platform and empowering a growing ecosystem of partners, we are at the forefront of protecting tens of thousands of organizations across clouds, networks, and mobile devices. Our vision is a world where each day is safer and more secure than the one before. For more information, visit www.paloaltonetworks.com. Palo Alto Networks and the Palo Alto Networks logo are trademarks of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. in the United States and in jurisdictions throughout the world. All other trademarks, trade names, or service marks used or mentioned herein belong to their respective owners.   Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Preliminary Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (In millions, except per share data) (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended April 30, April 30, 2022 2021 2022 2021.....»»

Oil Stockpiles Fall Despite Fear Of Slowing Growth The price for WTI (NYSE:USO) has been trending sideways over the past few months as traders, speculators, hedge funds, and users of oil wrestle with a rapidly changing environment. While the price action has been moving lower over the past few days, we don’t think a top […] Oil Stockpiles Fall Despite Fear Of Slowing Growth The price for WTI (NYSE:USO) has been trending sideways over the past few months as traders, speculators, hedge funds, and users of oil wrestle with a rapidly changing environment. While the price action has been moving lower over the past few days, we don’t think a top has been reached in this market. Rising oil prices are having an impact on demand but systemic demand for fuel and petrochemicals remains high. A recession, if it comes, may not produce lower energy prices simply because we expect labor markets to remain tight due to the massive shortfall of available employees. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more  The EIA is forecasting supply and demand to run very tight over the next 6 months and there are numerous risks to the outlook. To start, the EU is not only pushing to ban imports of Russian oil and gas but Russia's claims it would sell its oil to “other” parties is without merit. If the EU follows through on the latest proposal, there will be a total ban on Russian oil in 6 months' time. At the same time, COVID restrictions in China and, more importantly, the key manufacturing hub of Shanghai, are expected to ease beginning June 1st and that will boost demand in an already tight supply/demand environment. US Energy Stockpiles Decline In the US, energy stockpiles are already in decline and moving lower. The latest data shows that crude and gas inventories fell again versus expectations for increases and we don’t see the trend changing. Diesel fuel and distillate stockpiles rose but not enough to make up the shortfall in the WTI data and distillate stockpiles are at the lowest level since 2005. Not even counting the demand for fuel on the road today, refinery demand to rebuild those stockpiles will be a powerful tailwind for oil prices. Releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not helping the situation either. Total US stockpiles, including the SPR, are at 12-year lows due to the release of the SPR. The SPR itself is at the lowest level since the late 80s and will provide another tailwind to price action when it gets replenished. The takeaway is that energy reserves are well below average and in need of replenishment. Because demand is expected to match output for the foreseeable future the replenishment of stockpiles is an unlikely event. The Technical Outlook: WTI Is Waiting To Pop The price action in WTI has been sideways over the past few months but the bias is definitely upward. Not only has WTI confirmed support above the previous high but support is moving higher and new highs were recently set within the range. The indicators are also bullish showing a series of small but strengthening MACD peaks and higher lows in the stochastic. Price action may fall in the near term due to easing fears or fear of slacking demand but these pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities at this time. It is our opinion that energy markets are tight and traders are waiting for the next bad headline to cross the wire. The weekly chart is equally biased and to the upside. While price action pulled back from the March peak it found support above $97 and has since built a nice base. The indicators also pulled back which is evidence of a cooling market but that is consistent with consolidation within a bull market. The indicators at this level have already rolled over into bullish crossovers that, at the very least, confirm support at the previous high. At best, the bullish crossovers in WTI are trend following signals that will have price action back to the all-time high fairly soon. Article by Thomas Hughes, MarketBeat Updated on May 19, 2022, 4:54 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

The 32-year-old New York Democrat met her longtime partner, Riley Roberts, while the two attended Boston University. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Riley Roberts.James Devaney/GC Images Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirmed to Insider that she's engaged. AOC met her longtime partner, Riley Roberts, when they were students at Boston University. The New York lawmaker told Insider the two got engaged in Puerto Rico in April. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York confirmed to Insider Thursday that she's engaged to her longtime partner, Riley Roberts."Yep! It's true," Ocasio-Cortez told Insider of an unconfirmed report that she and Roberts were engaged. She added on Twitter that they got engaged in Puerto Rico last month and were "taking some space to savor" their engagement before beginning the wedding planning process. "We got engaged last month in my family's hometown in Puerto Rico," she tweeted. "No future details yet, we're taking some space to savor this time before diving into planning."—Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) May 19, 2022Ocasio-Cortez, 32, met Roberts, a marketing professional, when the two were undergraduate students at Boston University. They've dated for several years.Roberts has largely stayed out of the spotlight but was featured in a 2018 documentary, "Knock Down the House," about Ocasio-Cortez's primary campaign. The documentary's filmmaker, Rachel Lears, told Insider in 2019 that Roberts played a key role in supporting his partner's political career."Everything from the emotional to the strategic to the practical, he has been a really important partner to her," she said.Roberts and Ocasio-Cortez met at Boston University's Coffee and Conversation in 2011 — a Friday-afternoon student town hall where Ocasio-Cortez often drove discussions — but friends of the couple didn't know they had been dating until years after they all graduated.After they were both done with school, the couple broke up, and Roberts eventually moved back to Arizona. They later rekindled the relationship in New York.Earlier on Thursday, Ocasio-Cortez acknowledged on Instagram that she'd been "MIA" for a week or two because of a non-COVID-19 "health issue.""I'm back at it today, but was MIA for a bit to recover," she wrote on her story. "Just wanted to provide you all some assurance that the silence wasn't political or anything as I know that worried some."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Ukrainian troops wanted to prevent Russian forces from assaulting the eastern cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Members of the Ukrainian National Guard place explosives and blow up a bridge.Ukrainian National Guard A video shared by Ukraine's National Guard shows troops laying explosives under a bridge. The troops then detonate the explosives, destroying the bridge to prevent a Russian advancement. Russia's war in Ukraine has turned into a grinding fight in the country's eastern Donbas region. A video from Ukraine's National Guard shows a band of troops placing explosives underneath a bridge and blowing it up to stop a Russian advancement in the east. According to the National Guard, the band of Ukrainian troops — represented by the National Guard, Secret Service, and Special Operations Forces — wanted to prevent Russian forces in the eastern Ukrainian city of Rubezhnoye from assaulting the nearby cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Ukrainian troops can be seen in the video, shared to Facebook on Wednesday, loading TM-62M anti-tank mines into a car before showing a handful of troops carefully place explosives around a bridge.After setting up the explosives, the Ukrainians scurried away from the bridge and took positions of cover behind shrubbery and cars. One soldier presses a button on a device, and an explosion could be heard in the background. "Blowing up bridges helped protect Kyiv. It will also provide advantages in the defense of the controlled regional center of Luhansk region," the National Guard wrote on Facebook. Ukrainian forces were recently successful in preventing President Vladimir Putin's troops from crossing the nearby Siverskyi Donets river, leading to a significant loss of Russian equipment. The river has prevented Russian forces from capturing strategic ground and stalled tactical advancement — often leading to being stuck in vulnerable positions and giving Ukraine a chance to attack. Russia's war in Ukraine has turned into a grinding and bloody campaign in the eastern Donbas region, after Putin's forces failed to capture the capital city Kyiv. Translations by Oleksandr Vynogradov.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»