Insider's Phil Rosen explains how Nvidia has been able to dominate the chip sector and why it's the best bet in AI right now. Good morning, Phil Rosen here, writing to you from New York. Last week I asked you all a question in the newsletter — Do you own Nvidia stock? — and many of you told me that you've held shares for years and it's paid generously. One of you even told me you first bought the stock when Nvidia was $16(!) per share more than 20 years ago. It's just under $400 today. That's some serious foresight, my friend! So far in 2023, the stock is up 165%. Today we're breaking down what's behind that surge.If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app hereA screenshot from Nvidia's (NVDA) website highlights DLSS, or Deep Learning Super Sampling, backed by its GEForce RTX technology.Nvidia1. Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. It's the company that appears best positioned to dominate the burgeoning sector, my colleague Matt Fox writes, and more and more investors continue to wake up to the potential of artificial intelligence.Its 25% spike on Thursday is evidence enough that there's a lot riding on the hype — it added nearly $200 billion to its market cap that day after reporting stellar guidance for its GPU chips.Baird strategist Ted Mortonson chalks it up really to the foresight of CEO Jensen Huang, calling the Nvidia chief a "true visionary" for predicting the changes in the market and his understanding that software would be key for the future."Jensen understood where the market was going before the market even materialized," Mortonson told Insider, adding that some of the company's tech has pushed the AI sector forward by leaps and bounds.Nvidia effectively provides a one-stop shop for what customers need to drive their AI ambitions. They control their entire ecosystem on both hardware and software, similar to Apple, and Mortonson said that puts them years ahead of competitors.CFRA analyst Angelo Zino echoed that, pointing out that the company commands almost the entire GPU market within the data center space. "GPUs are going to be enormous, not only in gaming and data centers, which is essentially the bulk of their revenue today, but autonomous cars and other capabilities over time," Zino said. "How they work with these enterprise companies is invaluable and a big reason why we do think that they're likely going to sustain a market share position north of 90% in the foreseeable future."What's your stock outlook for Nvidia? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.In other news:CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images2. US stock futures rise early Tuesday, after the Biden administration and Republican lawmakers reached a tentative deal on raising the US debt ceiling.  Check out the latest market moves.3. Earnings on deck: AMERCO, HP, and more, all reporting.4. A 30-year fund manager with $1 billion in assets under management shared the AI companies he's most excited about. Gregg Fisher warns against investing in stocks just because they have "AI" in their name, and said investors should first key in on how a company is using the technology to optimize growth. Here's his strategy for nailing down stocks in the space that have the potential to grow over the next five years.5. A secretive hedge fund has likely notched a $5 billion gain on Nvidia stock this year. Jennison Associates has almost a 1% stake in the surging company, and that slice has ballooned in value from $3.4 billion to $8.6 billion this year — assuming it hasn't cashed out.6. The credibility of the West's sanctions on Russian oil are at risk if the price cap isn't lowered. At least according to a CREA report that showed a weakening effectiveness of the mechanism, with Moscow's oil export revenue rebounding in March and April. In the think tank's view, countries in the price cap coalition need to "get a grip."7. The US's steep borrowing is a threat to the dollar. Promises to cut spending will likely be "negated and forgotten," Jim Grant said, and that's weighed on demand for dollar-denominated Treasury bonds. Full details.8. Famed economist David Rosenberg said home prices are still set to fall further. Buyers are retreating to the sidelines and a hawkish Fed means mortgage rates are going to stay high, he explained. By his estimate, monthly payments for first-time buyers are up 33% compared to last year.9. Buy these seven small-cap stocks that can crush the market in any economy. That's according to a fund manager who outperformed 99% of his peers last year. See his favorites.Markets Insider10. Marvell Technology followed Nvidia's rally and surged double-digits on Friday. Shares of the company hovered near their biggest single-day spike ever, and the chipmaker credited AI for its upbeat quarterly outlook. Chief executive Matthew Murphy said the company is looking at the "tremendous" potential AI could offer the business.Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

In today's edition: HR is torn on job applicants using AI, Elon Musk gets government approval for putting brain chips in humans, and more headlines. It's Tech Tuesday, friends. I'm Diamond Naga Siu. Have you ever thought about quitting your job to pursue your dreams? That's what one former Googler did — and they failed miserably. But it wasn't all bad. She learned a lot of lessons along the way, including how having no goals and zero expectations resulted in "a lot of fun." Check out her story here. Now, let's dive into today's tech.If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.Amazon Employees for Climate Justice lead a walk out and rally at the company's headquarters to demand that leaders take action on climate change in Seattle, Washington on September 20, 2019. (Jason Redmond/AFP/Getty Images1. Employees accuse Amazon of 'actively accelerating' the climate crisis. They plan to walk off the job on Wednesday, according to an internal email leaked to Insider. The action is part of a broader protest over layoffs and return-to-office.Amazon employees listed five areas of concern over the company's climate impact: rising emissions, deception in reporting, partnering with Big Oil, killing clean energy legislation, and disproportionate harm to communities of color.The company committed to a Climate Pledge in 2019 to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040. But employees claim the company has increased emissions by 40% since making the promise.My colleague Eugene Kim obtained the entire email outlining employee concerns and shared it in full.Dive into the walkout email here.In other news:Tech workers are searching for low stress jobs on social media.Getty stock illustration2. Tech workers are looking for less stressful jobs. They're done with the grind. Many said they're even willing to take lower pay for lower stress. But one Amazon worker said there's "no such thing as [a] high pay low stress job in tech." More on the job search here. 3. HR is torn on applicants using AI during the job search. For some, it's a "definite dealbreaker." But others don't really care. Check out what hiring managers think about AI here.4. Earth's neighboring (and dying) star Betelgeuse got really bright. It's 50% brighter than normal after recently dimming its shine, so scientists are now closely monitoring it. The convalescing star will likely explode into a supernova. More on the starpower here.5. AI can make or break the workforce. Generative AI like ChatGPT could turbocharge the workforce by making us a lot more productive. Or it could cause troves of people to lose their jobs. Look into the contrasting AI futures here.6. Elon Musk got government approval to put chips in people's brains. His company Neuralink was previously only allowed to test on animals. But the Food and Drug Administration just gave it the greenlight for human implants. More on the milestone here.7. Amazon's guide on how every industry will use AI. A leaked document revealed Amazon's predictions for nine different industries. Automakers could use it for vehicle concept design, while healthcare could use it for personalized medicine. Get all the predictions here.8. Things you're probably wrong about when it comes to your car. Buying cars at the end of the month or year might have been clever at one point. But the automotive industry has changed a lot in recent years. Drive over for the nine vehicle misconceptions you might have.Odds and ends:Kaboo Bill. Kaboo Photography. Monterey Bay AquariumKaboo Bill/Kaboo Photography9. Love Love Love: Award-winning engagement photos from around the world. The images are meant to reflect love in all forms. Winners hail from New York City, Bali, and many places in between. View all 50 lovely photos here.10. Students list their high school on Zillow as a prank. The 20-bedroom, 15-bathroom Maryland property features a spacious kitchen and private basketball court. But the $42,069 listing was unfortunately too good to be true. More on the prank here.What we're watching today:Elizabeth Holmes is expected to surrender to federal prison.China is launching its Long March 2F rocket. It will carry three taikonauts (aka Chinese astronauts).Quarterly earnings for HP and other companies. Keep up with earnings here.Happy birthday, Remy Ma! Hope you're All the Way Up.Curated by Diamond Naga Siu in San Diego. (Feedback or tips? Email dsiu@insider.com or tweet @diamondnagasiu) Edited by Alistair Barr (tweet @alistairmbarr) in San Francisco and Hallam Bullock (tweet @hallam_bullock) in London.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

With U.S. stock futures trading higher this morning on Tuesday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows: read more.....»»

Facts Vs. Fed-Speak: A Comical History With Tragic Consequences Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Below, we look at simple facts in the context of complex markets to underscore the dangerous direction of Fed-Speak and Fed policy. Keep It Simple, Stupid It’s true that, “the Devil is in the details.” Anyone familiar with Wall Street in general, or market math in particular, for example, can wax poetic on acronym jargon, Greek math symbols, sigma moves in bond yields, chart contango or derivative market lingo. Notwithstanding all those “details,” however, is a more fitting phrase for our times, namely: “Keep it simple, stupid.” The Simple and the Stupid The simple facts are clear to almost anyone who wishes to see them. With US debt, for example, at greater than 120% of its GDP, Uncle Sam has a problem. That is, he’s broke, and not just debt-ceiling broke, but I mean broke, broke. It’s just THAT simple. Consequently, no one wants his IOUs, confirmed by the simple/stupid fact that in 2014, foreign Central Banks stopped buying US Treasuries on net, something not seen in five decades. In short, the US, and its sacred bonds, just aren’t what they used to be. To fill this gap, that creature from Jekyll Island otherwise known as the Federal Reserve, which is neither Federal nor a reserve, has to mouse-click money to pay the deficit spending of short-sighted and opportunistic administrations (left and right) year after year after year. Uncle Fed, along with its TBTF nephews, have thus become the largest marginal financiers of US deficits for the last 8 years. In short, the Fed and big banks are literally drinking Uncle Sam’s debt-laced Kool aide. The Fed’s money printer has thus become central to keeping credit markets alive despite the equal fact (paradox) that its rate hikes are simultaneously gutting bonds, banks and small businesses to fight inflation despite the stubborn fact that such inflation is still here. The Inflation Narrative: Form Over Substance My view, of course, is that the Fed’s war on inflation is a headline optic rather than policy fact. Like all debt-soaked and failing regimes, the Fed secretly wants inflation to outpace rates (i.e., it wants “negative real rates”) in order to inflate away some of that aforementioned and embarrassing debt. But admitting that is akin to political suicide, and the Fed is political, not “independent.” Thus, the Fed will seek inflation while simultaneously mis/under-reporting CPI inflation by at least 50%. I’ve described this as “having your cake and eating it too.” All that said, inflation, which was supposed to be transitory, is clearly sticky (as we warned from the beginning), and even its under-reported 6% range has the experts in a tizzy of comical proportions. Neel Kashkari, for example, is thinking the US may need to get rates to at least 6% to “beat” inflation. James Bullard is asking for more rate hikes too. But what these “go higher, longer” folks are failing to mention is that rate hikes make Uncle Sam’s bar tab (i.e., debt) even more expensive, a fact which deepens rather than alleviates the US deficit nightmare. The War on Inflation is a Policy that Actually Adds to Inflation Ironically, however, few (including Kashkari, Bullard, Powell or just about any economic midget in the House of Representatives) are recognizing the additional paradox that greater deficits only add to (rather than “combat”) the inflation problem, as deficit spending (an economy on debt respirator) keeps artificial demand (and hence) prices rising rather than falling. Furthermore, these deficits will ultimately be paid for with more fiat fake money created out of thin air at the Eccles building, a policy which is inherently (and by definition): INFLATIONARY. In short, and as even Warren B. Mosler recently tweeted, “the Fed is chasing its own tail.” Inflation, in other words, is not only here to stay, the Fed’s “anti-inflationary” rate hike policies are actually making it worse. Even party-line economists are forecasting higher core inflation this year: The Real Solution to Inflation? Scorched Earth. In fact, the only way to truly dis-inflate the inflation problem is to raise rates high enough to destroy the bond market and the economy. Afterall, major recessions/depressions do “beat” inflation—along with just about everything and everyone else. The current Fed’s answer to combatting the inflation problem is in many ways the equivalent of combatting a kitchen rodent problem by placing dynamite in the sink. Meanwhile, the Rate Hikes Keep Blowing Things Up Buried beneath the headlines of one failing bank (and tax-payer-funded depositor bailout) after the next, is the equally dark picture of US small businesses, all of which rely on loans to stay afloat. But according to the U.S. Small Business Association, loan rates for the “little guys” have reached double digit levels. Needless to say, such debt costs don’t just hurt small enterprises, they destroy them. This credit crunch is only just beginning, as small enterprises borrow less in the face of rising rates. Real estate, of course, is just another sector for which the “war on inflation” rate hikes are creating collateral damage. Homeowners enjoying the fixed low rates of days past are naturally remiss to sell current homes only to face the pain of buying a newer one at much higher mortgage rates. This means the re-sale inventory for older homes is shrinking, which means the market (as well as price) for new construction homes is spiking—serving as yet another and ironic example of how the Fed’s alleged war on inflation is actually adding to price inflation… In short, Fed rate hikes can make inflation rise, and equally tragic, is that Fed rate cuts can also make inflation rise, as cheaper money only means greater velocity of the same, which, alas, is inflationary… See the Paradox? And that, folks, is the paradox, conundrum, corner or trap in which our central planners have placed us and themselves. As I’ve warned countless times, we must eventually pick our poison: It’s either a depression or an inflation crisis. Ultimately, Powell’s rate hikes, having already murdered bonds, stocks and banks, will also murder the economy. Save the System or the Currency? At that inevitable moment when the financial and social rubble of a national and then global recession is too impossible to ignore, the central planners will have to take a long and hard look at the glowing red buttons on their money printers and decide which is worthing saving: The “system” or the currency? The answer is simple. They’ll push the red button while swallowing the blue pill. Ultimately, and not too far off in our horizon, the central planners will “save” the system (bonds and TBTF banks) by mouse-clicking trillions of more USDs. This simply means that the deflationary recession ahead will be followed by a hyper-inflationary “solution.” Again, and worth repeating, history confirms in debt crisis after debt crisis, and failed regime after failed regime, that the last bubble to “pop” is always the currency. A Long History of Stupid In my ever-growing data base of things Fed-Chairs have said that turned out to be completely and utterly, well…100% WRONG, one of my favorites was Ben Bernanke’s 2010 assertion that QE would be “temporary” and with “no consequence” to the USD. According to this false idol, QE was safe because the Fed was merely paying out dollars to purchase Treasuries is an even swap of contractually even values. What Bernanke failed to foresee or consider, however, is that such an elegant “swap” is anything but elegant when the Fed is marred by an operating loss in which its Treasuries are tanking in value. That is, the “swap” is now a swindle. As deficits rise, the TBTF banks will require more mouse-clicked (i.e., inflationary) dollars to meet Uncle Sam’s interest expense promise to the banks (“Interest on Excess Reserves”). In the early days of standard QE operations, at least the Fed’s printed money was “balanced” by its purchased USTs which the TBTF banks then removed from the market and parked “safely” at the Fed. But today, given the operating losses in play, the Fed’s raw money printing will be like like raw sewage with nowhere to go but straight into the economy with an inflationary odor. Bad Options, Fluffy Words Again, the cornered Fed’s options are simple/stupid: It can continue to hawkishly raise rates higher for longer and send the economy into a depression and the markets into a spiral while declaring victory over inflation, or it can print trillions more fiat dollars to prop the system and neuter/debase the dollar. And for this wonderful set of options, Bernanke won a Nobel Prize? The ironies do abound… But as a famous French moralist once said, the highest offices are rarely, if ever, held by the highest minds. Gold, of course, is not something the Fed (nor anyone else) can print or mouse-click, and gold’s ultimate role as a currency-insurer is not a matter of debate, but a matter of cycles, history and simple/stupid common sense. (See below). Markets Are Prepping In the interim, the markets are slowly catching on to the fact that protecting purchasing power is now more of a priority than looking for safety in grossly and un-naturally inflated “fixed income” or “risk-free-return” bonds. Why? Because those bonds are now (thanks to Uncle Fed) empirically and mathematically nothing more than “no-income” and “return-free-risk.” Meanwhile, hedge funds are building their net short positions in S&P futures at levels not seen since 2007 for the simple reason that they foresee a Powell-induced market implosion off the American bow. Once that foreseeable implosion occurs, get ready for the Fed’s only pathetic tools left: Lower rates and trillions of instant liquidity—the kind that kills a currency. In Gold We Trust The case for gold as insurance against such a backdrop of debt, financial fragility and openly dying currencies is, well: Simple stupid and plain to see. Few on this round earth see the simple among the complex better than our advisor and friend, Ronni Stoeferle, whose most recent In Gold We Trust Report has just been released. Co-produced with his Incrementum AG colleague, Mark Valek, this annual report has become the seminal report in the precious metal space. The 2023 edition is replete with not only the most sobering and clear data points and contextual common sense, but also a litany of entertaining quotations from Churchill and the Austrian School to The Grateful Dead and Anchorman … Ronni and Mark unpack the consequences of a Fed that has raised rates too high, too fast and too late, which is, again a fact plain to see: Needless to say, hiking rates into an economic setting already historically “debt fragile” tends to break things (from USTs to regional banks) and portends far more pain ahead, as both history and math also plainly confirm: In a debt-soaked world fully addicted to years of instant liquidity from a central bank near you, Powell’s sudden (but again too late, too much) hiking policies will not “softly” restrain market exuberance nor contain inflation without unleashing the mother of all recessions. Instead, the subsequent and sudden negative growth of money supply will only hasten a recession as opposed to a “softish” landing: As the foregoing report warns, the looming approach of this recession is already (and further) confirmed by such basic indicators as the Conference Board of Leading Indicators, an inverted yield curve and the alarming spread between 10Y and 2Y yields.  Self-Inflicted Geopolitical Risks The report further examines the geopolitical shifts of which we have been warning(and writing) since March of 2022, when Western sanctions against Russia unleashed a watershed trend by the BRICS and other nations to seek settlement payments outside of the weaponized USD. One would be unwise to ignore the significance of this shift or underestimate the growing power of these BRICS (and BRICS “plus”) alliances, as their combined share of global GDP is rising not falling… As interest in (and trust for) the now weaponized USD as a payment system declines alongside a weakening faith in Uncle Sam’s IOUs, the world, and its central banks (especially out East) are turning away from USTs and turning toward physical gold. Again, I give credit to the In Gold We Trust Report: See a trend? See why? It’s fairly simple, and for this we can thank the fairly stupid policies of the Fed in particular and the declining faith in their prowess in general: Myths Are Stubborn Things Many, of course, find it hard to imagine that a Federal Reserve based in DC and within the land of the Great American dream (and world reserve currency) could be anything but wise, efficient and stabilizing, despite an embarrassing Fed track record that is empirically unwise, inefficient and consistently destabilizing… Myths are hard to break, despite the fact the myth of MMT and QE on demand has been a failed experiment and is sending the US, as well as the global, economy toward a reckoning of historical proportions. But the messaging of “Keep calm and carry on” from Powell is calming in spirit despite the fact that it hides terrifying math and historically confirmed consequences for the fiat money by which investors still wrongly measure their wealth. But as Brian Fantana of Anchorman would tell us, trust the central planners. “They’ve done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works every time.” As for us, we trust the kind of data Ronni and Mark have gathered and that barbarous relic of gold far more than calming words and debased, fiat currencies. As history reminds, when currencies die within a backdrop of unsustainable debt, gold in fact does work—and every time. Tyler Durden Mon, 05/29/2023 - 07:30.....»»

Oil futures climbed on Friday, contributing to a more than 1% weekly gain in U.S. benchmark crude prices. The market saw a sharp decline Thursday on expectations that OPEC+ wasn’t likely to cut production at its meeting next month, but “the risk of further sharp falls is being mitigated somewhat by the fact that the markets know the U.S. government is a buyer[of oil]  below $70,” as it looks to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. July West Texas Intermediate crude CLN23 rose 84 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $72.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with prices for the front-month contract up 1.4% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Oil futures settle higher on Friday, contributing to a gain for the week, as investors weigh prospects for more output cuts from OPEC+......»»

The 2-year Treasury rate is on course for its largest weekly gain since September after Friday’s PCE inflation data prompted traders to boost their expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. The yield is up almost 30 basis points this week, at 4.568% in afternoon trading — which would be the largest weekly gain since the period that ended Sept. 23, based on preliminary data from Dow Jones Market Data. It’s also headed for its 12th straight session of advances, the longest such streak since January 2018. April’s personal consumption expenditures index showed inflation stuck between 4% to 5%, prompting fed funds futures traders to pricing in a 66.5% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in June. Yields on 2-year through 10-year Treasuries were all higher in afternoon trading.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Gold futures finished a bit higher on Friday, but still logged a third straight weekly loss. Gold’s attempted recovery ahead of the weekend was dampened a bit by “further evidence of still-stubborn U.S. inflation,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group. Prices for the metal may decline further, closer to the psychologically-important $1,900 level “if the U.S. debt deal is sealed in the immediate future,” he said. Gold for June delivery GCM23edged up by 60 cents, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $1,944.30 an ounce on Comex. For the week, the most-active contract fell 1.9%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

There's no recession visible, but the Fed is finding precious little in its way of adding another 25 bps rate hike in June. Friday, May 26th, 2023Pre-market futures are up in early morning trading this Friday, though not by levels high enough to turn this week positive, at least on the Dow. NVIDIA’s NVDA great Q1 numbers this week (among other tech stocks, especially those related to the A.I. space) gave the Nasdaq a step up so far. Let’s see what comes out of the wash after we get through a big morning of economic data.Nominal Personal Income came in as expected: +0.4%, up from an unrevised +0.3% and the highest print since the +0.6% we saw in January (a carry-over from holiday spending; April may be indicative of pre-summer spending). Personal Spending doubled expectations: +0.8% from the +0.4% estimate, and a big move up from the downwardly revised +0.1% the previous month.Real Spending came in at +0.5%, while the Deflator was +0.4% — both figures higher than analysts had been anticipating. Again, these numbers are popping to their highest levels since January, back when the Fed funds rate was still -75 basis points (bps) lower than it is today (although just -50 bps from April, when this data is from). We’re of course well off the multi-year highs from June of last year, but these are still signs inflation is not coming down very quickly at all.Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was also higher than expected: +0.4% on headline, topping the unrevised +0.1% in March and the highest since +0.6% in January (+1.0% in June ’22). Core PCE month over month was also +0.4%, above the unrevised +0.3% the previous month. A strong consumer with demand still working through the economic pipeline, at least month to month, is a big part of the narrative.Year over year, PCE in April came in at +4.4% — 20 bps higher than consensus — with core PCE year over year +4.7% — up 10 bps from expectations. February was +5.1% and last June’s +7.0% were the high water marks, and although we’re notably off those peaks, again it’s clear inflation metrics are taking longer than expected to get through on the domestic economy. Perhaps big summertime spending — family vacations, etc. — are skewing these numbers a bit on seasonality, but we’re still looking at pretty sticky inflation.Preliminary Durable Goods Orders, also for April, swung well into positive territory from expectations: +1.1% reported versus -0.8% estimated, with a downward revision of 30 bps on the previous month’s print to +2.8%. Ex-Transportation, -0.2% is 10 bps healthier than the -0.3% posted for March. Non-Defense, ex-aircraft (a proxy for “real” business spending like computers and office furniture, etc.) reached +1.4% — the highest we’ve seen since December 2021. Shipments came in at +0.5% for the month.The good news: no recession visible, even after passing most or all of the regional banking headwinds through the python. The bad news? The Fed is finding precious little in its way of adding another 25 bps interest rate hike mid-next month. There is plenty of data yet to come before June 14th — the date of the next monetary policy decision — but when big reports like PCE demonstrates inflation still going strong, Fed members may feel they have no choice but to raise again.Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>> 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research ReportsTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report.....»»

Investors Wait for Debt Ceiling Deal. Pre-market futures are up in early morning trading this Friday, though not by levels high enough to turn this week positive, at least on the Dow. NVIDIA’s NVDA great Q1 numbers this week (among other tech stocks, especially those related to the A.I. space) gave the Nasdaq a step up so far. Let’s see what comes out of the wash after we get through a big morning of economic data.Nominal Personal Income came in as expected: +0.4%, up from an unrevised +0.3% and the highest print since the +0.6% we saw in January (a carry-over from holiday spending; April may be indicative of pre-summer spending). Personal Spending doubled expectations: +0.8% from the +0.4% estimate, and a big move up from the downwardly revised +0.1% the previous month.Real Spending came in at +0.5%, while the Deflator was +0.4% — both figures higher than analysts had been anticipating. Again, these numbers are popping to their highest levels since January, back when the Fed funds rate was still -75 basis points (bps) lower than it is today (although just -50 bps from April, when this data is from). We’re of course well off the multi-year highs from June of last year, but these are still signs inflation is not coming down very quickly at all.Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was also higher than expected: +0.4% on headline, topping the unrevised +0.1% in March and the highest since +0.6% in January (+1.0% in June ’22). Core PCE month over month was also +0.4%, above the unrevised +0.3% the previous month. A strong consumer with demand still working through the economic pipeline, at least month to month, is a big part of the narrative.Year over year, PCE in April came in at +4.4% — 20 bps higher than consensus — with core PCE year over year +4.7% — up 10 bps from expectations. February was +5.1% and last June’s +7.0% were the high water marks, and although we’re notably off those peaks, again it’s clear inflation metrics are taking longer than expected to get through on the domestic economy. Perhaps big summertime spending — family vacations, etc. — are skewing these numbers a bit on seasonality, but we’re still looking at pretty sticky inflation.Preliminary Durable Goods Orders, also for April, swung well into positive territory from expectations: +1.1% reported versus -0.8% estimated, with a downward revision of 30 bps on the previous month’s print to +2.8%. Ex-Transportation, -0.2% is 10 bps healthier than the -0.3% posted for March. Non-Defense, ex-aircraft (a proxy for “real” business spending like computers and office furniture, etc.) reached +1.4% — the highest we’ve seen since December 2021. Shipments came in at +0.5% for the month.The good news: no recession visible, even after passing most or all of the regional banking headwinds through the python. The bad news? The Fed is finding precious little in its way of adding another 25 bps interest rate hike mid-next month. There is plenty of data yet to come before June 14th — the date of the next monetary policy decision — but when big reports like PCE demonstrates inflation still going strong, Fed members may feel they have no choice but to raise again. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Fed funds futures traders now see a 57.4% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will lift rates again in June after April’s personal consumption expenditures index showed inflation stuck in the 4% to 5% range. The likelihood of another quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate hike in June is up from 51.7% a day ago, and would take the Fed’s main benchmark rate target to between 5.25-5.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a pause in July was seen at 50.9%, based on data before U.S. stock markets opened. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield jumped to around 4.59% after the report. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Friday's top analyst upgrades and downgrades included American Express, Caesars Entertainment, Carnival, Dish Network, DocuSign, Ford, Futu, Microsoft, Mobileye Global, Nvidia, SentinelOne, Snowflake, Vipshop and Walt Disney. The futures were trading higher, as many across Wall Street may be out the door early to kick off the long Memorial Day weekend, as the markets will be closed on Monday. The major indexes closed mixed on Thursday, with the Nasdaq the star of the day on tech strength after Nvidia posted incredible results for the quarter and delivered a blow-out forecast. On the strength of chips for artificial intelligence (AI), the stock was up huge Thursday, and other AI names followed suit. While the tech exuberance was intoxicating, once again the debt ceiling negotiations plodded along with time running out for a deal. Treasury yields were up again as bond traders continue to handicap the final outcome for debt negotiations. The June T-bill rate remained elevated at 5.67%. The two-year paper closed the day at 4.53%, and the benchmark 10-year finished the session at 3.82%. The widening inversion between the two indicates the potential for a recession. After a solid 2% gain on Wednesday, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude finished the day lower in a big way, down 3.28% and 2.82%, respectively. While the debt ceiling concerns have spilled to the commodities markets, the potential for OPEC to cut production again in June lent some support. Natural gas closed the day down almost 5% at $2.28. Gold also finished the day lower, down 1.2% at $1940.70, as the dollar continued its climb to a two-month high. Along with the debt issue, demand for the bullion has been poor this week. Bitcoin finished the day slightly higher at $26,467. 24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst research reports each day of the week with a goal of finding fresh ideas for investors and traders alike. Some of these daily analyst calls cover stocks to buy. Other calls cover stocks to sell or avoid. Remember that no single analyst call should ever be used as a basis to buy or sell a stock. Consensus analyst target data is from Refinitiv. These are the top analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations seen on Friday, May 26, 2023. American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP): Redburn lowered its Neutral rating to Sell with a $125 target price. The consensus target is up at $182.05, and the stock closed on Thursday at $151.08. Caesars Entertainment Inc. (NASDAQ: CZR): Susquehanna upgraded the shares to Neutral from Negative and raised its $27 price target to $39. The consensus target is higher at $69.54. Thursday’s closing share price was $41.40. ALSO READ: 6 Cybersecurity Software Stocks Could Be Set Up for Huge Second Half 2023 Gains wallst_recirc_link_tracking_init( "8996156246470b41925037", "text" ); Carnival Corp. & PLC (NYSE: CCL): Citigroup’s upgrade to Buy from Neutral included a price target hike to $14 from $10. The consensus target is $11.18. The shares closed over 3% higher on Thursday at $11 after the upgrade. Sponsored: Find a Qualified Financial Advisor Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you’re ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now......»»

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Futures Rise On Optimism Of Imminent Debt Deal US equity futures are higher across the board, amid speculation that a debt deal is taking shape and may be announced as soon as today (whether or not a 0.2% spending cut "deal" is something to be proud about is a different matter) and also thanks to optimism around Nvidia and AI prospects. S&P futures are 0.2% higher, rising to 4,169 and undoing the drop from the previous two days, while Nasdaq futures are up 0.4% amid continued AI-bubble euphoria. Treasury yields are falling, most markedly at the short end, on debt ceiling optimism, while a measure of the dollar is weakening. Commodities are mostly higher led by base metals. Oil prices are set for a weekly gain, climbing higher today. Gold prices are edging higher but still set for their third weekly decline. In premarket trading, Marvell Technology shares soared 17% after the chipmaker projected AI revenue in fiscal 2024 will “at least double” from a year ago. The company also reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat estimates and provided second-quarter guidance. Analysts had a positive reaction, increasing price targets on the stock. Meanwhile Nvidia shares were little-changed in US premarket trading, pausing following yesterday’s 24% surge after the chipmaker gave a bullish forecast thanks to surging demand amid an AI boom. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Tilray Brands shares plunged 19% in premarket trading after the cannabis producer priced an offering of $150m of unsecured convertible senior notes. Gap shares jump 11% in premarket trading after the apparel retailer produced better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, compared to Wall Street forecasts for a sizable loss for the period. Analysts pointed toward the cost management of the company, with Jefferies saying lower expense on air freight contributed to the better margin and EPS. Domo shares dropped 4.9% in postmarket trading after the application software company’s guidance for 2Q revenue missed the average analyst estimate, while analysts flagged the firm’s still-muted growth. Workday shares gained 8.5% in extended trading, after the software company narrowed its subscription revenue forecast for the full year and named Zane Rowe as new chief financial officer. Analysts are positive on the report and forecast. Yesterday, the Nasdaq rallied 2.5%, a 1.9-sigma move, as NVDA surged 24% amid forecast beat; XSD (Semiconductors ETF) added 4.5%. The NDX rally was driven by a narrow leadership as there are only 17 out of 100 companies outperformed the benchmark. On debt ceiling, headlines turned more optimistic as there seems to be a deal emerging, but gaps remains between the two parties. Today, macro focus will be the PCE and Durable Goods release. Optimism was also boosted by reports that a deal is emerging which could include a paltry $10bn spending cut. Today’s macro focus will be on PCE releases and Durable Goods Orders. “We are in a very hesitant market,” said Ariane Hayate, a fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. The debt ceiling is “a factor that adds up nervousness, but the market isn’t expecting that no solution will be found.” In Washington, Republican and White House negotiators have narrowed differences in talks over recent days and are moving closer to an agreement to raise the debt limit and cap federal spending for two years, according to people familiar with the matter. However, details agreed to are tentative and a final accord is still not in hand, the people said. European stocks also rose with chipmakers including ASML Holding NV advancing for a second day. Glencore Plc advanced 2.5% after a report that Viterra unit is in talks to merge with Bunge Ltd., one of the world’s largest crop merchants.  The Stoxx 600 was up 0.5% as European mining stocks rose and were among the biggest gainers on the Stoxx 600 regional benchmark as metal prices trim weekly decline, while the sector bounces on technical support and Rio Tinto gets a broker upgrade. Here are the most notable European movers: Rio Tinto rallies as much as 4.3% in London after being upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which says weakness in the mining company’s shares has created an opportunity European semiconductor equipment makers rise, extending Thursday’s blistering rally on hopes that adoption of chips used in artificial intelligence computing could accelerate the sector’s future growth Faurecia gains as much as 5.7% and Valeo as much as 3.7% after Jefferies upgraded the firms to buy, saying auto suppliers are starting to benefit from a more supportive operating environment Atos shares rise as much as 8.8% after the company got a favorable decision in litigation involving Syntel, now part of Atos, in the US, with Oddo calling the judgement “very favorable” at first sight Coface jumps as much as 7.8% after reporting earnings that Deutsche Bank says could lead to mid-single-digit consensus upgrades as the French financial services company “continues to demonstrate its quality” Asos shares rise as much as 8.9% after the UK online fast fashion retailer announced capital raising plans. The new debt financing and equity raise provide “much needed visibility on liquidity,” Citi analysts say Casino shares slump as much as 11% after the debt-laden French retailer said a Paris court decided to open conciliation procedures amid talks with its creditors Ninety One falls as much as 2.1% after being downgraded to underperform at Avior, which says the current market environment favors fixed-income instruments over stocks, putting equity performance at risk Asian stocks traded mixed following the mild positive bias stateside where the tech sector surged on Nvidia’s blockbuster report and with sentiment underpinned by firm US data and progress in debt ceiling talks. The Shanghai Comp. was subdued amid the closure of Hong Kong markets and Stock Connect trade but with the downside cushioned after the meeting between the US and China’s commerce chiefs where concerns were raised about recent actions taken against US companies in China, as well as US chip policy and export curbs Japan's Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 31,000 level with the index lifted by recent currency weakness and mostly softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, while tech stocks benefitted from the ripple effect which stemmed from the rally in US counterparts. Australia's ASX 200 was indecisive with price action rangebound and risk sentiment contained by disappointing Retail Sales data. Indian stocks were the best performers among major Asian markets this week, even as investors awaited the outcome of ongoing negotiations to raise the US debt ceiling. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1% to 62,501.69 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by the same magnitude. The Sensex gained 1.3% this week, while the Nifty climbed 1.6%. The advance has mainly been supported by information technology, pharmaceuticals and consumer staple firms. Investors kept a close eye on US debt-ceiling talks. Republican and White House negotiators are making progress toward a deal to raise the debt limit. Strategists warn that any break down in negotiations could have serious implications for global economic growth. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also lower by 0.2%, snapping a four-day run of gains; it is on course to end the week in positive territory, posting its third straight week of gains. The Swedish krona is the best performer among the G-10’s.  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged down 0.2%, USD/JPY slipped 0.3% on easing Treasury yields and as Japan’s 10-year breakeven inflation rate hit an eight-year high. In rates, Treasuries are richer across the curve with gains led by front-end, steepening spreads from Thursday’s close. US session focus includes a flood of economic data, headed by PCE deflator at 8:30am New York.  US yields richer by up to 5bp across front-end of the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 1bp and 1.5bp on the day; 10- year yields around 3.78%, richer by 4bp on the day with bunds lagging by 1.5bp in the sector. The two-year Treasury yield slipped 4bps to 4.49%, pulling back from a two-month high around 4.55% hit the previous day. Markets are pricing in 23 basis points of Fed tightening in July, down 3 basis points from Thursday but still reflecting the likelihood of a 25 basis point hike in two months’ time; Boston Fed President Collins on Thursday said the central bank may have reached, or be approaching, the point at which it can pause interest-rate increases In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 0.5% to trade near $72.20. Spot gold adds 0.6% to around $1,953. Bitcoin falls 0.2% Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include PCE inflation for April, along with personal income and personal spending for April, preliminary durable goods orders for April, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for May. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s UK retail sales for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lane and Vujcic. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,170 MXAP up 0.5% to 159.93 MXAPJ up 0.7% to 506.87 Nikkei up 0.4% to 30,916.31 Topix little changed at 2,145.84 Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 18,746.92 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,212.50 Sensex up 0.8% to 62,392.17 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,154.76 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,558.81 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 457.36 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.52% Euro little changed at $1.0729 Brent Futures little changed at $76.23/bbl Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,953.26 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.15% to 104.09 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg European stocks rose and Treasury yields ticked lower on signs that US negotiators are moving closer to striking a debt deal. Republican and White House negotiators are nearing a deal to raise the debt limit and cap federal spending for two years, according to people familiar with the matter, as time grows short to avert a catastrophic US default With investor attention on the US sovereign credit rating rising as the federal government gets ever closer to running out of cash, Moody’s Investors Service says that a mid-June payment of interest on Treasuries will be critical for maintaining the top, AAA grade. Germany has been Europe’s economic engine for decades, pulling the region through one crisis after another. But that resilience is breaking down, and it spells danger for the whole continent. In 2020, just after George Floyd’s murder in the US, one of the most senior Black professionals in the City of London, KPMG UK Partner and Vice-Chair Richard Iferenta, appealed to CEOs and chairpeople of the business community “to stamp out racism of all forms.” Three years later, he has yet to see the change and ambition he asked for. Morgan Stanley is letting go of at least six managing directors, including some key China bankers, as part of broader job cuts in Asia where dealmaking has been stymied by growing China-US tensions and tepid economic growth. Barclays Plc lost three senior investment bankers including John Miller, all of whom are joining Jefferies Financial Group Inc., according to people with knowledge of the matter. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk European bourses began the session on the front foot but have since pulled back from best levels and now see a mixed picture, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%. Sectors in Europe are mixed (vs a mostly positive open). Basic Resources outperform as base metals claw back some recent losses, with Tech the next best performer as NVIDIA’s surge continues to reverberate globally. The downside meanwhile consists of Utilities, Telecoms, and Banks.  US equity futures traded horizontally overnight but saw a slight uptick shortly after the cash open, in tandem with Europe, but have since pulled back; ES -0.1%. Top European News UK ministers look to reshape the pensions lifeboat fund to provide a boost to business, according to FT. ECB's Lane on "How quickly will inflation return to target?" - reiterates guidance from the 4th May ECB Meeting. There is no sense of certainty in the terminal rate; uncertainty in models is high; some upside risks to wage growth. ECB's Vujcic says inflation momentum is still persistent and it is questionable that we will be able to get to 2% in the next two years. Riksbank's Breman says increasing asset sales is something we could think about if we see the crown continuing to weaken. Adds, increasing asset sales is something we should think about, doesn't need to be next meeting. APAC stocks traded mixed following the mild positive bias stateside where the tech sector surged on Nvidia’s blockbuster report and with sentiment underpinned by firm US data and progress in debt ceiling talks. ASX 200 was indecisive with price action rangebound and risk sentiment contained by disappointing Retail Sales data. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 31,000 level with the index lifted by recent currency weakness and mostly softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, while tech stocks benefitted from the ripple effect which stemmed from the rally in US counterparts. Shanghai Comp. was subdued amid the closure of Hong Kong markets and Stock Connect trade but with the downside cushioned after the meeting between the US and China’s commerce chiefs where concerns were raised about recent actions taken against US companies in China, as well as US chip policy and export curbs Top Asian News US Commerce Secretary Raimondo met with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang in Washington and raised concerns about the recent spate of Chinese actions taken against US companies in China. Furthermore, China's MOFCOM said Wang and Raimondo agreed to keep communication on trade concerns and that China expressed concerns on US chip policy and export curbs, while the meeting was candid and constructive, according to Reuters. China's top server makers asked suppliers to suspend shipments of modules containing chips made by Micron (MU) following Beijing's partial ban on Micron products, according to SCMP. FX The broader Dollar and index have pulled back from overnight highs. mostly amid the strength in G10 counterparts. The non-US Dollars are firmer against the Dollar to varying degrees, AUD/USD outperforms as base metals rebound. Sterling resides as one of today’s outperformers on the back of the stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data (+0. 5% M/M vs exp. 0.3%), coupled with hawkish commentary from BoE’s Haskel yesterday. The SEK stands as the current G10 outperformer with strength seen amid hawkish commentary from Riksbank Deputy Governor Bremen. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0760 vs exp. 7.0752 (prev. 7.0529) Fixed Income Core benchmarks are mixed with USTs bid as the risk tone slips while EGBs/Gilts are softer, but directionally infitting. EGBs and Gilts were initially weighed on by strong UK Retail data which adds to the factors in-favour of further BoE tightening. Though, market pricing for the BoE hasn't altered significantly from the post-CPI pricing of 100bp of tightening by end-2023. Stateside, yields are lower across the curve and towards troughs given the above benchmark pricing Commodities WTI and Brent futures are relatively flat on either side of the unchanged mark following the downside yesterday, which was due to a concoction of weak German GDP data and comments from Russia Deputy PM Novak. Spot gold has firmed in the European morning as the DXY pulled back, while the yellow metal also found support near its 100 DMA (USD 1,934.86/oz) in APAC hours. Base metals are firmer across the board following the losses seen throughout the majority of this week. India weather office says El Nino seen emerging during monsoon season. Geopolitics Japan is to place additional sanctions against Russia in which it will freeze the assets of 78 groups and 17 individuals in Russia as part of new sanctions, according to a government bulletin. Furthermore, Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said Japan is to ban providing construction and engineering services in Russia, while they condemned Russia's plan to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as it intensifies the situation around Ukraine, according to Reuters. Regarding Sweden's NATO accession, Sweden said Turkish President Erdogan's demands are impossible to meet as Sweden has not received a list of relevant individuals from Turkey, according to a senior Swedish official cited by WSJ.   DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap After some rough sessions earlier in the week, the newsflow has been a lot more positive for markets over the last 24 hours. First, there’s now some more optimism again around the debt ceiling, particularly after comments from Speaker McCarthy suggested that a deal was near, and that he would be staying in town over the long weekend to work on a deal. Second, tech stocks saw a big outperformance thanks to excitement surrounding AI, which followed Nvidia’s positive outlook from the previous day. And third, US economic data yesterday ran ahead of expectations, thus helping to ease fears about an imminent recession. But with all this newfound optimism, investors are once again dialling up their expectations for future rate hikes, and sovereign bonds saw a decent selloff in response. In the meantime, the gains for equities were actually very narrow and solely driven by the large tech stocks. Starting with the debt ceiling, we still don’t have a deal yet, but the latest developments yesterday raised hopes that an agreement can be reached ahead of the deadline (whenever that actually is). Shortly after the US open, markets reacted to comments from Speaker McCarthy, who said “I thought we made some progress” in the discussions on Wednesday. Furthermore, he said “I don’t think everybody is going to be happy at the end of the day”, which was seen as laying the groundwork for any potential compromise, and hence positive for the likelihood of reaching a deal. Last night it was reported by Reuters that the two sides were just $70bn apart on discretionary spending levels, with the overall deal likely smaller in scope than what was first reported. While there was no deal when the sides went home, the tone from the top from Speaker McCarthy and President Biden is more encouraging than earlier this week. After the US close the Treasury disclosed their cash balances had fallen to $49.5bn, down from $76.5bn the day earlier and $140bn on May 12, so the clock is indeed ticking. With that more positive backdrop to the talks, there were clear signs of market stress starting to ease again. For instance, the yield on the T-bill maturing on June 8 (so close to the potential X-date) came down by -32.4bps on the day to 6.48%, and it was a similar story for other bills around the X-date. Those moves were also in the opposite direction to the broader move toward higher yields yesterday, which further demonstrates how the debt limit was driving those moves. However, even with the growing optimism from yesterday, it’s worth noting that yields on bills around the X-date are trading with a 6 handle, which shows how investors are still wanting a premium to hold the Treasuries that might be affected by a potential default. Just as better news was coming through on the debt ceiling, we also had a decent round of releases on the US economy that further supported risk appetite. One was the weekly initial jobless claims, which came in at 229k over the week ending May 20 (vs. 245k expected), and we also heard that the state of Massachusetts had downwardly revised three months of data due to fraudulent applications. Alongside that, it turned out that growth in Q1 was stronger than initially thought, having been revised up to a +1.3% annualised rate (vs. 1.1% previously), whilst core PCE inflation was revised up to +5.0% (vs. +4.9% previously). With all that positive news coming through, it means that markets are putting increasing weight on the prospect of another rate hike from the Federal Reserve. By the close, futures had raised the chances of a June hike up to 54%, which is the first time since SVB’s collapse back in March, so it’s a prospect that investors are taking more and more seriously. At the same time, there’s been growing speculation that the Fed might skip a hike in June and move again in July, which means that if you look at the chances that we’ve had a hike by July, they’re now up to a very strong 94% probability. That’s a big shift from where we were after the Fed’s last meeting at the start of the month, when the consensus view was that they were done hiking, and the next move was more likely to be a cut than a hike. As markets priced in more rate hikes, sovereign bonds sold off across the board once again. In the US, yields on 10yr Treasuries (+7.6bps) hit a post-SVB high of 3.817%, having now risen for 9 of the last 10 sessions. And the 10yr real yield (+7.9bps) closed above 1.5% for the first time since the SVB turmoil as well. In Europe yields were set to close lower than they did before a late comment from ECB board member Knot (a noted hawk) who said that rate hikes were needed over the next two months, that he was “open-minded” about September, and finally that the market pricing of rates cuts is “overly optimistic”. This resulted in yields on 10yr bunds (+5.0bps), OATs (+5.0bps) and BTPs (+5.9bps) all moving higher after being close to finishing just higher than unchanged. Overnight swap pricing is still nearly fully pricing in the next two hikes (97% for June and 80% for July ), while the chance of a rate cut in February of next year is now the lowest it has been in 3 weeks. But it was gilts that saw the biggest declines once again, with the 10yr yield (+16.0bps) closing at 4.37%, which isn’t far off its closing high just after the September mini-budget, when it reached 4.50%. That comes as our UK economist has updated his call for the BoE, where he now thinks we’ll get another three 25bp hikes that take us up to a terminal rate of 5.25%. See his latest call here. For equities, there were several factors at play yesterday, and the S&P 500 (+0.88%) ultimately ended the day in positive territory. But it’s worth stressing that this was down to incredible strength among tech stocks, with only just over 40% of the index actually ending the day in positive territory. In fact, on an industry basis, semiconductors were up +11.0% and software was up +3.6%, with transports the next best at +1.2%. 15 of the 24 other industries were lower on the day. So clearly tech outperformance was the big story with the NASDAQ recovering +1.71% after declining over the last couple of days. Nvidia (+24.37%) was one of the biggest outperformers, and was single-handedly responsible for most of the NASDAQ’s gains. In addition, the company’s strength meant that the FANG+ Index (+2.51%) extended its YTD gains to +55.19%. Elsewhere, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index was up +6.81%, and individual companies like Advanced Micro Devices surged +11.13%. Marvell kept the semi's ball rolling after hours by reporting better-than-expected results and forecasting AI-related revenues to at least double for this fiscal year. Their stock was +16.74% higher after the close. Overnight in Asia, the Nikkei 225 (+0.62%) and the Kospi (+0.17%) are advancing just as the Shanghai Composite (-0.14%) lags. Some of the gains continue to be driven by AI sentiment – IT is the best-performing sector in the Topix and companies like TSMC (+4.05%) and SK Hynix (+5.51%) are rallying further on Marvell’s earnings. In terms of economic data in the region, the Tokyo CPI slowed to 3.2% from 3.5% YoY, coming in below estimates of 3.4%. The yen has strengthened +0.23% against the dollar. In terms of US assets, Marvell’s $42bn market cap has done little to lift Nasdaq futures (-0.18%), with the S&P 500 (-0.18%) contracts also falling. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are down by at least 1bps across most of the curve. In Germany, there was another round of weak data yesterday, as their Q1 GDP number was revised to show a -0.3% contraction, rather than a flat reading as initially thought. Given that the economy saw a -0.5% contraction in Q4, that means there were two consecutive contractions that meet the technical definition of a recession. So assuming the data isn’t revised further in future, it turns out there was a winter recession amidst the energy shock, despite hopes the country might have just about managed to avoid one. To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include PCE inflation for April, along with personal income and personal spending for April, preliminary durable goods orders for April, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for May. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s UK retail sales for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lane and Vujcic. Tyler Durden Fri, 05/26/2023 - 08:19.....»»

Insider's Phil Rosen explains what's behind the key chip stock's meteoric rise. The best thing about Friday is that we're only two days away from the next episode of Succession. Phil Rosen here, reporting from New York. Before we start popping kernels for Sunday's finale, we have to talk about the hottest stock on the market that's cashing in its chips by the billions. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.Nvidia CEO Jensen HuangMandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images1. Nvidia had investors in a frenzy on Thursday. After posting stellar first-quarter earnings and giving investors hope for more to come with huge forward guidance, the stock was up as much as 24% as of this morning. Among the biggest winners was the chip-maker's chief exec, Jensen Huang, who added nearly $7 billion to his net worth thanks to the blistering single-day rally (he owns 3.5% of the company).The price spike added more than $200 billion to Nvidia's valuation, and put it near the rarefied air of the $1 trillion valuation club. "The inflection in Generative AI development is here," Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari said. The bank raised its price target from $275 to $440, and shrugged off the threat of competitors in the space.JPMorgan similarly doubled its price target for the stock to $500, and the firm expects massive demand for AI tech to balloon even more. "There is not one better indicator around underlying AI demand going on in the hyperscale/cloud and overall enterprise market than the foundational Nvidia story," Wedbush's Dan Ives said Thursday. "The Street," he continued, "was all awaiting last night's Nvidia quarter and guidance to gauge the magnitude of this AI demand story with many skeptics saying an AI bubble was forming and instead Jensen & Co. delivered guidance for the ages."Huang brought Nvidia public in 1999, at the height of the dot-com bubble. At the time it had a valuation of $626 million, and the company was launching its first graphic processor unit for computers and video games.It has since blossomed into a leader in the AI space — and the sector has become the hottest investor bet in 2023. Even before the wild earnings report on Wednesday, analysts were calling Nvidia as the firm to beat. Their advantage, as Bank of America put it earlier this month, is that they're selling picks and shovels to everyone getting in on the gold rush. In other words, their tech is the underlying foundation of the rest of the AI boom.Here's Ives again: "In 22 years of covering tech stocks and large cap we have NEVER seen a guidance range of this magnitude on a large cap tech name and thus speaks to our thesis that the monetization of AI... is well underway."Do you own any Nvidia stock? When did you first buy it? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.In other news:Warren Buffett attends the Forbes Media Centennial Celebration at Pier 60 on September 19, 2017 in New York City.Taylor Hill/FilmMagic2. US stock futures fall early Friday, as investors continue to await progress on debt ceiling talks. Data on personal income, consumer spending and sentiment, and durable goods is also due this morning. Check out the latest market moves.3. Earnings on deck: Lowe's, Glencore, and more, all reporting.4. Jeremy Grantham's GMO said high valuations means US stocks are doomed for years of dismal returns. One of the firm's top analysts said he's still "highly skeptical" of the current pricing of equity markets. Here are three places where GMO recommends parking your cash for the current environment. 5. The S&P 500 is already flashing recession signs. That's according to economist David Rosenberg, who pointed out that stocks closely linked to the real economy have tanked. As he put it: "The most economic sensitive areas are down -33%: transports, consumer discretionary and banks. Behaving as they did heading into the 1990-91, 2001 and 2007-09 downturns."6. Iran pushed for de-dollarization in a meeting with 11 other countries. Officials said the move away from the dollar is "not a voluntary choice" anymore.  It marks the latest in a string of recent pivots by other nations away from the greenback. 7. Strong corporate earnings have helped the US avoid a recession so far. But Bank of America strategists cautioned that markets and the economy are still staring down two big risks. Get the full details. 8. Warren Buffett's businesses are in the throes of an economic downturn and a major transition period. Five CEOs broke down the value of Berkshire's ownership — and offered fresh insights into a possible successor to the legendary investor.9. The chief investment strategist at Citi Global Wealth laid out the best opportunities in tech stocks. Investors that have chased the AI gold rush haven't fully capitalized on certain corners of the market. These three bets look poised for more upside.Annie Fu/Insider, National Association of Realtors10. We're entering a brutal era for housing. Experts, real estate agents, and Americans are all concerned about the ice age hitting the sensitive property market. One trend that seems to have cemented itself: If you don't already own a home, you're going to be screwed for years to come. Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

U.S. stock futures traded mixed this morning. Here are some big stocks recording losses in today’s pre-market trading session. read more.....»»

U.S. stock futures edged lower Friday as debt-ceiling concerns still reverberated with inflation data set for release......»»

Natural-gas futures extended their decline Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a weekly increase in domestic natural-gas supplies that was lower than the market forecast. Inventories of the fuel in storage rose by 96 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 19, the EIA said. Analysts called for a storage increase of 101 billion cubic feet on average, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Total working gas in storage for the latest week was at 2.336 trillion cubic feet, up 529 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 340 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said. Following the data, June natural gas NGM23 was down 4.6 cents, or 1.9%, at $2.352 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded at $2.38 shortly before the supply data.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Gold futures settled lower Thursday for a fourth session in a row. The stronger U.S. dollar, as well as higher Treasury yields, pressured gold prices, said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. Prices for the most-active contract marked their lowest finish since March 21, according to FactSet data. Gold for June delivery GCM23 fell $20.90, or 1.1%, to settle at $1,943.70 an ounce on Comex.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»