Advertisements


Oil futures end lower for the session, month and quarter

Oil futures declined Friday, contributing to their losses for the month and quarter as concerns over a potential recession raised expectations for a slowdown in demand. Still, oil supply will get tighter in the winter and "now that most of the crude demand destruction has been priced in, prices should stabilize going into the year-end," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. November WTI crude fell $1.74, or 2.1%, to settle at $79.49 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with front-month prices still up nearly 1% for the week. For the month, prices lost 11%, and ended the quarter down almost 25%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch2 hr. 0 min. ago Related News

Eurizon The Globe: Inflation Is The Culprit

The latest issue of ‘The Globe’, Eurizon’s publication describing the Company’s investment view. In this issue, a focus is dedicated to “inflation is the culprit.” Scenario Government bond yields on the rise across maturities, most markedly on the short end of the curve, in a context of still high inflation, resilient growth, and aggressive Central […] The latest issue of ‘The Globe’, Eurizon’s publication describing the Company’s investment view. In this issue, a focus is dedicated to “inflation is the culprit.” Scenario Government bond yields on the rise across maturities, most markedly on the short end of the curve, in a context of still high inflation, resilient growth, and aggressive Central Bank actions. Fed funds futures now point to rates peaking in the 4.7% area next spring, from 3% at present, and subsequently dropping back. Similar course for ECB rates, now at 1.25% and forecast at over 3% by mid-2023. These expectations anticipate a drop in inflation and a contraction in growth between the end of 2022 and the opening months of 2023. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   The moderation would be welcome, although until there is clear evidence in this direction the Central Banks will not be prepared to slow their tightening process. However, on a positive note, the price of oil has been dropping stably since June, and the natural gas prices have also recently dropped. The outcome of the Italian election was in line with pre-vote expectations. The spread, that had already risen over previous months following the ECB’s change in stance, was subject to no further tensions, neither before nor after the vote, thanks to an election campaign in which euro-scepticism was reduced to a minimum. In China, the economy is reaccelerating after slowing sharply due to the lockdowns imposed in the second quarter of the year, and anticipation is mounting ahead of the Congress of the Chinese Communist Party on 16 October. Macro Economy US inflation is moderating thanks to the energy component, although core items are still rising at sharp rates. The global economy is proving more resilient to rate hikes than expected (for now). Fed fund futures are pricing in further rate hikes worth 170 basis points, with a peak at 4.7% in the spring of 2023. The ECB envisages a further 200 basis points worth of hikes, and a peak at 3.2% in mid-2023. Asset Allocation The autumn should bring signals of a downturn of inflation and/or of a macro slowdown, to the advantage of a stabilization of medium and long-term yields. Overweight position confirmed on the government bonds of the United States and Germany, exposure to stocks lowered to neutral. FixedIncome Overweight position confirmed of US and German government bonds, that could benefit both from easing inflation and the slowdown in growth. Among spread bonds, a preference goes to Investment Grades, while the picture remains uncertain for High Yield and Emerging bonds. Neutral positions on Italian government bonds. Equity Stock market valuations have dropped to historically appealing levels but could be confirmed volatile in case of a sharp macroeconomic slowdown. On the other hand, a swifter recovery could materialize in case of signals of easing inflation. Currencies The Fed’s hawkish turn has widely been priced in by the dollar, that could take a breather in the upturn observed since the beginning of 2021. However, for the euro to recover, the energy crisis will necessarily have to improve. Investment View The baseline scenario contemplates further Central Bank rate hikes, in waiting for more evident signals of an easing of inflation. As the monetary restriction continues, so will the downward revision of economic growth forecasts. In this context, medium and long-term rates should stabilize on fears of a slowdown. However, uncertainty on the resilience of the economic growth should in any case extend volatility on the stock markets. Asset Classes compared Government bond yields on the rise to new year-to date highs. Sharp inversion of the curve in the US, flat curve in Germany. Stocks back down to the lows hit in June. Spreads stable at high levels for peripheral Eurozone bonds and credits (Investment Grade, High Yield, Emerging Markets). Dollar strong against all the other currencies, at 0.98 against the euro. Theme Of The Month - Inflation Is The Culprit The (negative) trend of the markets in the course of this year may be explained by a single variable: the flare up of inflation, a true bane for investors, that have to tackle rising rates and falling stock indices. Going forward, the good news is that inflation is starting to drop. The bad news is that the decline is not enough for the time being to allow the Central Banks to declare victory against surging prices. At least two of the three components of inflation are on the decline. The supply-side bottlenecks that took shape during post-Covid reopenings are easing, as made evident by the drop of international forwarding prices, nonetheless still higher than they were before Covid. Commodity-induced inflation is declining: industrial metals prices have actually been falling since March, the price of oil has dropped below 80 dollars per barrel, after stopping just short of 115 dollars in June, and the price of natural gas, one of the main drivers of inflation in Europe, is also decreasing. However, second level effects are still in place, as price increases are being transferred downstream by the business sectors affected, fueling core inflation. This is the reason for which, at their September meetings, the Fed and ECB not only hiked rates again, by 75 basis points, but confirmed their intention to proceed in this direction in the months ahead. For the time being, near-term Fed funds futures are pricing in yields of between 4.5% and 5% by the spring of 2023 followed by a 100 basis points decline to contain the economic slowdown once inflation will have been reined. The ECB envisages a point of arrival at above 3%. Short-term yields at these levels are already being priced in on the medium and long ends of the curve. In the United States, the 2-year yield has grown to 4.3%, close to the level priced in by Fed funds as the point of arrival. The 10-year yield has risen to 3.8% and, with an inverted curve, is starting to price in the fact that the monetary tightening will not only bring inflation back under control, but also slow growth. In its present configuration, the US curve seems to have reached its maximum inversion (the 10-year yield is 50 basis points lower than the 2-year rate) since the early 1980s. At the moment, the upward movements of the 2-year rate have managed to also drag up the 10-year yield, although the release of weak macro data could result in a further inversion of the curve (as a result of the decline of the 10-year rate). On the other hand, lower than expected inflation data would stop the inversion of the curve, while shifting it downwards across maturities. Similar considerations apply to the euro curve, flat from the 2-year maturity onwards at 3%, the point of arrival envisaged for ECB rates. For what concerns the stock markets, this year’s decline has not been due to endogenous market factors. Businesses have kept achieving earnings growth, and equity return has risen in line with bond rates. The volatility of stocks has been historically low compared to the decline incurred by prices. All these elements support the view that the weakness of the stock markets has been entirely imported from the repricing of the bond markets, in turn destabilisedby inflation. Therefore, the stabilisationof bond rates is essential for stocks. If the upward path of rates is halted by a drop in inflation, the recovery of the stock markets may be immediate and swift. If on the other hand rate hikes are interrupted by a sharp drop in economic activity, the recovery of stocks could be delayed, in waiting to verify the impact on earnings. In this case as well, however, it is reassuring to note that analysts have already started reviewing their expectations, effectively anticipating the potential macro slowdown......»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk4 hr. 0 min. ago Related News

Futures Movers: Oil prices settle lower for the month and quarter on demand risks

Oil futures decline Friday, pressured by worries surrounding the demand outlook, but prices hold onto a weekly gain, buoyed by the prospect of an OPEC+ production cut next week......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch5 hr. 45 min. ago Related News

Nomura: When Does The Fed "Blink"?

Nomura: When Does The Fed "Blink"? The velocity of “things breaking” around the world (Yen, Yuan, Euro, Sterling, SONIA, Gilts, MBS, Lev Loan deals, the entirety of the UK LDI / Pension complex) is obviously a “neon swan” telling us that we are clearly now in the “market accident” stage from the tightening surge. And, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes, let’s be fair…all of these things are happening for completely rational reasons, particularly for the USD vs lack of viable global alternatives, as the US economy remains the “cleanest dirty shirt” by-far, while rest of world is running increasingly “incongruent” monetary vs fiscal policy on structural issues. Again, looking at the below generic UK / Europe type set-up, McElligott points out a laundry-list of messy inputs (h/t Jordan Rochester): Collapsing terms of trade / trade-deficits largely due to energy imports Manu / Industrial growth slowing due to high energy / input costs “Hiking into recession” with slower consumer being negatively impact by broad inflation (energy bills, food costs) AND shock-resets on mortgage rates "Demand CONSTRUCTION" policies which feed actually FEED consumption and inflation (energy caps, subsidies, fiscal stim / tax cuts) And again, all while those central banks are trying to “rage tighten” monetary policy with hot inflation - but against collapsing currencies thanks to the “USD Wrecking Ball”. And so, authorities are starting to agitate against growing market and economic calamity being caused by the impulse tightening of FCI and the USD Wrecking Ball - which is making the “macro trend trades” which have dictated all thematic performance in 2022 now increasingly open to reversal. So what will make the Fed "blink"? The Nomura strategist writes that, outside of trying to project outrageously unpredictable Inflation data, there are two scenarios: Job losses / Negative NFPs - currently, labor mkt tightness and wage growth at all-time highs gives Fed room to hit the economy HARDER, bc a hot jobs mkt gives you room to crunch it—so the Fed will keep hiking into postive NFP prints; but my view has continued to be that the first time you print a negative NFP, the market will immediately interpret it as a counter-intuitive “constructive” signal for Equities, because this allows for a Fed pivot back towards “dual mandate” (from current solo focus on inflation) which means they can “move the goalposts” - ESPECIALLY as “job losses” then becomes a political feature / issue Credit Market “freeze,” as Corp access to Capital Markets dries-up (note: this is NOT necessarily then about some absolute Spread level of say HY)—if FCI tightening and / or market Vol hits such an extent that BBBs can’t do debt deals…then the Fed will make a move; watching Lev Loans- and / or CLO- markets as most reasonable spots for an “issue” due to floating-rate nature of the products. Are we starting to see any signs of this anticipation of a Fed Pivot? Turning to tactical Equities / Vol - yesterday was the first day in four where we saw some normalization in the recent blast of Vol / Skew / Crash outperformance vs Spot Index,despite the seemingly big “down day”—with a resumption of fairly aggressive “monetization of downside” flows in Equities index / ETF options. And this segues nicely into today’s quarterly rebalance of the large client SPX Put Spread Collar, which tends to exhibit tremendous market impact on hype alone…but for many of the past year and a half’s rebal cycles, has indeed marked local market inflection points. Per the desk Put Spread Collar update: “The SPX Sept 30th 3020/3580/4005 Put Spread Collar (cust long the Sep 30th PM 3580/3020 Put Spreads vs. short the Sep 30th PM 4005 Calls) is expected to be rolled at some point today. The gamma on the SPX Sep 30th PM 3580 Put was ~$2.3B as of last night’s close, so dealers/market makers are broadly welcoming this morning’s de minimis move in futures. Based on last night’s closing level, the expectation is that the investor will roll into something like a a new SPX Dec 30th 2910/3460/3800 Put Spread Collar ~46,000x, which will create ~$16.8M of vega supply in that Dec 30th bucket (along with a fair amount of downside skew via that Dec 30th 2910 Put). The structure has ~$7B of net delta to sell as it currently stands on the MOC, though in the past we have seen this structure trade with a 1-day option (would sell a Sep 30th ITM call for example) so that the delta impact comes on the close as opposed to intra-day” McElligott's point is that with the recent “bid” to Vol / Skew that it is looking “rich” again (as an entry point then for it to fade from) - and yes, with a likelihood that the end of day Equities MOC imbalance could be a disasterously huge “$7B FOR SALE” print that frightens the mkt….i actually kinda think it sets up for a potential relief trade thereafter next week or even into / around Oct Op-Ex, because Dealers are getting a BUNCH of Vega and Gamma back, as well as picking up some big downside Skew…IF WE CAN AVOID A MELTDOWN TO THE 3580 STRIKE FIRST. I think all of this sets-up for a short-term tactical dynamic where Equities implied Vol could come off the recent squeeze higher and begin fading again next week, which then along with the reduced “Short Gamma” dynamic, but against so much “Negative $Delta”…could allow for Equities “relief” as iVol softens further with Dealers in a much “cleaner” place from an Options market perspective. Interestingly, the team at SpotGamma note a similar tactical dynamic as today's put expiration is enough to give equities a bump, and that could lead to a rapid decline in implied volatility. So, we have puts deltas coming off due to expiration, but also vanna. Shown below is the VIX which has hit recent highs – but note too the movement of the TDEX “Tail Risk” index. There was a sharp move in this metric over the last week which tells us that traders were buying deep out of the money puts. On a rally this stuff could get smoked, and could help generate a ~5% equity rally rather quickly. But SpotGamma warns, the macro risks in this environment are massive, an its the perfect environment for something to snap and lead to limit down style moves. This is why we favor playing rallies in call positions with fixed risk. Second, this view of a rally is based on positional analysis, nothing fundamental. Because we are in a put-heavy environment with high volatility rallies should be treated as very unstable and subject to rapid reversal. Think CPI crash, or even yesterdays reversal from 3940 Wed closing to 3910 Thursday lows. Those were 3-5% rallies which retraced in hours. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/30/2022 - 14:15.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge6 hr. 0 min. ago Related News

Metals Stocks: Gold ends higher for the week, but falls for the month and quarter on strength in the U.S. dollar

Gold futures climb on Friday to post a gain for the week. Overall strength in the U.S. dollar, however, on the back of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, as the central bank continues its efforts to tame inflation, pushes prices for the metal lower for the month, as well as the quarter......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch6 hr. 1 min. ago Related News

Gold futures gain for the week, fall for the month and quarter

Gold futures climbed Friday to finish higher for the week, but overall strength in the dollar amid aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, as it continues its efforts to tame inflation, pushed prices for the metal lower for the month, as well as the quarter. Gold for December delivery rose $3.40, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,672 an ounce on Comex. Prices based on the most-active contract climbed 1% for the week. They posted declines of 3.1% for the month and 7.5% for the quarter.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch6 hr. 33 min. ago Related News

Most-active gold futures up about 1% for the week, down over 3% for the month

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch7 hr. 1 min. ago Related News

"Yes, The Market Is Categorically Unfun And Ugly" - What JPMorgan"s Traders Think Happens Next

"Yes, The Market Is Categorically Unfun And Ugly" - What JPMorgan's Traders Think Happens Next Today is the last day of Q3 2022, and so far this quarter, the S&P is down 25% from its all time highs, and down 15% from its peak of the summer rally, it is also set for a -3.8% quarterly loss - the third negative quarter in a row - the longest such stretch since 2008. "So where we go from here?" That's the question JPMorgan market intelligence trader Andrew Tyler asks this morning, and to answer it he quotes from a handful of JPM strategists and traders. We start with the JPM trading desk: Ronald Alder (TMT) Yes, the market is categorically unfun and ugly. Equities remain at the mercy of eco data and the bond market. Economic data remains solid (PCE, Jobs, etc.) albeit backwards looking and, in concert with the fed commentary, won’t allow for the market to be constructive just yet (even as high frequency data points to lower inflation). Yesterday’s Long-Only buyers in TMT (primarily the megacaps) are notably absent or more passive, while see more defensive buying in Telco, etc. AAPL breaking is making things a bit precarious for everyone and everything. The desk is 1.3:1 better for sale now with volumes down in the HSD% range. It’s early, but conversations continue to skew bearish with the challenge to find the bullish narrative. I still think the risk-reward is fairly balanced here at 3600-3700. The tape remains very choppy and macro driven. ETF volumes are currently in the high-30%s (and were >40% this am). Liquidity in S&P futures is ok while Treasuries (and from what I hear in the bond market) remains abysmal. The strength in the MOVE Index and the sustained VIX Index levels have led to risk management challenges (which typically leads to de-risking) and broad frustration. It’s hard to fight the Fed commentary (and CBs more broadly) + hot global macro data. It remains The Fed Funds ceiling – which was a tailwind for the past two days – has crept back up today to ~4.53%. We have been consolidating for a little while this am 3620-3650. Our supply is drying up a bit (we are now 1.2:1 better to buy on the desk) and there’s a lot of hope (again, per [@Jack Johnston] perhaps not the best strategy – but sometimes you must work with what you have) that we could rally post the European close Brian Heavey (Consumer) NKE: Overall the print is mixed; the top-line is very strong (NA nearly doubled our estimate at 10% FXN vs. St. 4.5%, EMEA in-line and sequential improvement in China). EPS beat JPM and missed Street by a penny (.93 vs. St. .94 and JPMe .87). Higher tax rate hurt EPS by 5 cents - so revenues and operational EPS beat vs Street. The GM was down ~220bps which offset the revenue beat and is tied to the inventory clearing actions NKE has been undertaking (recall Boss has been previewing this has seasonal inventory has being cleared). We will guide on the call which will be the main driver of the stock (as well as information on inventory clearance). The desk was very active yesterday w/ primarily LO demand in discretionary and supply in Staples (i.e. much more "risk on" in nature). Client activity is down substantially today as the daily volatility remains paralyzing. I think the magnitude of the KMX miss shows just how much downside remains in SPX earnings estimates. Yes, I think expectations were low, but KMX embodies all of the issues facing the market right now: Weakening consumer demand, higher SG&A (primarily Labor), and difficulty in forecasting given a rapidly changing macro environment. This follows an EPS cut from VFC yesterday, and while a lot of VFC's issues are company and brand specific, it was another data point that the $230 EPS estimate for the SPX that even the bulls are clinging to is probably too high. It's not all bad today... we are finally seeing the DXY stop making new highs. I think if we can move the USD into a downtrend it will provide some relief to EPS estimates (especially in the more FX sensitive staples names). Today's move lower is immaterial in the context of the last few weeks rip, but something to watch going forward Stuart Humphrey (TMT) MU | Bad Q, worse guide. Q4 revs in at $6.64B vs STe at $6.73B and JPMe at $6.56B (we lowered estimates into the print) with Q1 guide well below as revs for Q1 to be $4.25B at midpt vs STe of $5.71B came in well below expectations - GMs down below 30%, likely cutting utilization. Double ordering and supply chains are easing. Stock might be down more prob if not for positioning and the 50% capex cut vs last year. Then we move on to the JPM strategists and economists:  Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (strategist) Nikolaos reminds us that cash allocation for non-bank investors has risen sharply this year due to simultaneous decline in both equities and bonds, and “a backdrop of high cash allocation may provide backstop for both equities and bonds likely limiting any further downside from here.” JPM still feels like a bear rally would be difficult to launch without a better CPI print to boost the market sentiment. As we are closer to Q3 earnings, a better-than-expected earnings and companies outlooks may also trigger a rally, but the margin shrinking and FX risks are still the biggest unknowns. More bullets from his note below: Following this year’s unprecedented rise in bond yields, we find that non-bank investors globally have erased 14 years of previous bond overweights and lowered their allocation to bonds to only 17% currently, even below the pre-Lehman crisis average of 18%. We see two main implications from this low bond allocation. First, going forward a sustained bull market in equities could require a bull market in bonds. Second, the pressure on multi asset investors to sell equities to offset the mechanical increase in their equity allocations stemming from bond price declines has diminished. Outside any interplay between equity and bond allocations, a backdrop of high cash allocations provides in our opinion a backstop to both equities and bonds, likely limiting any further downside from here. BoE calms concerns over collateral calls for now. Revenue has declined for ethereum block makers post merge, yet the staking yield has increased This year’s rise in bond yields is of historic proportions. The 250bp YTD rise in the Global Agg bond index yield that took place in a period of nine months, represents the steepest and largest rise in the history of the index, exceeding the bond yield rise of 1994. What is even more unprecedented is the decline in the return of the Global Agg bond index on a currency unhedged basis. Effectively more than a decade of previous returns has been unwound in a period of only nine months. Similar to previous large bond selloffs, this year’s bond selloff has been taking place against a backdrop of very low liquidity. This is shown in Figure 3, which shows that, for most of this year, the market depth for USTs has been even lower than that seen in March 2020 at the peak of the pandemic crisis. In other words, at the current juncture of very low market depth and elevated rate volatility one is feeding the other in an intense way: as rate volatility rises bond market makers step back from their market making role and raise bid offer spreads inducing low market depth and lower liquidity, which in turns creates even more rate volatility. Michael Feroli (economist, discussing net trade) So far the factory sector has held up well in the face of a surging dollar. But that’s unlikely to last, as lagged exchange rate effects and a European recession hit exporters. We expect net trade will subtract a little more than 1%-pt from GDP growth in ‘23. Fans of Kung Fu movies will be familiar with the delayed touch of death: a lethal blow whose effects are only realized after the passage of time. The closest equivalent among the various monetary transmission channels has to be the exchange rate channel. Whereas some financial conditions (e.g., mortgage rates) manifest themselves in the economy in a matter of months, historically it can take several quarters for the effect of moves in the exchange rate to play out in export and import growth. In this note we discuss what these lags—combined with the recent strength of the dollar— imply for the outlook for trade and manufacturing next year. Layered on top of the dollar appreciation is a looming recession in the Eurozone, one of the US’s largest trading partners. We also discuss why the lags from the dollar to trade may be even longer than usual now, and that when the dollar effects do hit they may hit with even more force than usual. All in, we think trade could subtract more than a percentage point from GDP growth next year, with more drag to come in ’24. Trade models are pretty simple, as far as economic models go. Demand for exports is determined by foreign income (GDP) and by the relative price of domestically-produced goods, i.e., the real exchange rate. Demand for imports is similarly a function of domestic income and the real exchange rate. Looking at the first of these, foreign income, Europe - both the Eurozone and other Europe—accounts for about a quarter of exports and appears to be heading into recession. More generally, the J.P. Morgan forecast for our trading partners next year looks for one of the slowest growth years outside of global recessions (Figure 2). The other main driver of US trade performance is the real, trade-weighted dollar. The real exchange weight is the nominal exchange weight adjusted for the price level differential between countries. Since various price indices can be used, there are various real exchange rates. The J.P. Morgan real dollar indices are up between 13% and 18% since the beginning of the year. Taking the average, and using our estimated trade elasticities, over time this should reduce the level of GDP—through both lower exports and more domestic demand shifted to imports—by over 1.5%-pts. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/30/2022 - 12:40.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge7 hr. 16 min. ago Related News

CFTC Charges Digitex Founder Adam Todd With Running Illegal Crypto Derivatives Trading Platform

Adam Todd, the founder of crypto futures and spot market exchange Digitex, has been charged by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for multiple violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA)......»»

Category: forexSource: coindesk7 hr. 30 min. ago Related News

PCE Price Index In-Line, +6.2% Year Over Year

+6.2% for the PCE Price Index year over year is down 20 bps from July. Friday, September 30, 2022We close out an eventful week on Wall Street with a comprehensive report on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for August, with results mostly in-line with expectations, as per normal. PCE Price Index figures are derived from a number of previously released data, like Retail Sales, so they don’t typically offer big surprise swings in either direction.Headline PCE month over month reached +0.3%, as expected, following the -0.1% posted for July. The core read — stripping away more transitory aspects of consumer spending, food and energy — doubled the overall headline to +0.6%, 10 basis points (bps) hotter than expected and well above the 0.0% presented for the previous month.The main aspect of these figures market participants pay closer attention to are the year over year numbers: +6.2% for the PCE Price Index, down 20 bps from July. Core year over year reached +4.9%, 20 bps above consensus and the upwardly revised previous month read. This suggests “transitory” inflation metrics have somewhat been absorbed into the stickier parts of the economy, making inflation more difficult to tame.That said, +4.9% on core, while still historically high, is well below the +6.8% we saw in June of this year, which was the highest print we’d seen since Ronald Reagan’s first year as President. What we would rather see, of course, is these numbers come down on core as well as headline to have a better grasp of controlling overall inflation metrics. Clearly this is still a work in progress.Real Consumer Spending for August swung to +0.1% from -0.1% in July, while Real Disposable Income for August posted an identical +0.1%, but which has come down notably from the +0.5% for the previous month. The demonstrates the consumer remains relatively undaunted in its purchases, even as extra cash in their paychecks may not be what they were just recently.Market futures are flat, after a topsy-turvy past several days. Bullish traders will continue to seek a ramp to the highway, though even today's green shoots currently appear like dip-buying. It's the last day of the quarter, after all, and it's a Friday before earnings season. Thus, we don't expect crazy trading volumes or a big push in either direction. We look to finish the week in the red over all.Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>> This Little-Known Semiconductor Stock Could Be Your Portfolio’s Hedge Against Inflation Everyone uses semiconductors. But only a small number of people know what they are and what they do. If you use a smartphone, computer, microwave, digital camera or refrigerator (and that’s just the tip of the iceberg), you have a need for semiconductors. That’s why their importance can’t be overstated and their disruption in the supply chain has such a global effect. But every cloud has a silver lining. Shockwaves to the international supply chain from the global pandemic have unearthed a tremendous opportunity for investors. And today, Zacks' leading stock strategist is revealing the one semiconductor stock that stands to gain the most in a new FREE report. It's yours at no cost and with no obligation.>>Yes, I Want to Help Protect My Portfolio During the RecessionWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks8 hr. 32 min. ago Related News

Core PCE Inflation Exceeds Expectation in August

Core PCE Inflation Exceeds Expectation in August. We close out an eventful week on Wall Street with a comprehensive report on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for August, with results mostly in-line with expectations, as per normal. PCE Price Index figures are derived from a number of previously released data, like Retail Sales, so they don’t typically offer big surprise swings in either direction.Headline PCE month over month reached +0.3%, as expected, following the -0.1% posted for July. The core read — stripping away more transitory aspects of consumer spending, food and energy — doubled the overall headline to +0.6%, 10 basis points (bps) hotter than expected and well above the 0.0% presented for the previous month.The main aspect of these figures market participants pay closer attention to are the year over year numbers: +6.2% for the PCE Price Index, down 20 bps from July. Core year over year reached +4.9%, 20 bps above consensus and the upwardly revised previous month read. This suggests “transitory” inflation metrics have somewhat been absorbed into the stickier parts of the economy, making inflation more difficult to tame.That said, +4.9% on core, while still historically high, is well below the +6.8% we saw in June of this year, which was the highest print we’d seen since Ronald Reagan’s first year as President. What we would rather see, of course, is these numbers come down on core as well as headline to have a better grasp of controlling overall inflation metrics. Clearly this is still a work in progress.Real Consumer Spending for August swung to +0.1% from -0.1% in July, while Real Disposable Income for August posted an identical +0.1%, but which has come down notably from the +0.5% for the previous month. The demonstrates the consumer remains relatively undaunted in its purchases, even as extra cash in their paychecks may not be what they were just recently.Market futures are flat, after a topsy-turvy past several days. Bullish traders will continue to seek a ramp to the highway, though even today's green shoots currently appear like dip-buying. It's the last day of the quarter, after all, and it's a Friday before earnings season. Thus, we don't expect crazy trading volumes or a big push in either direction. We look to finish the week in the red over all. This Little-Known Semiconductor Stock Could Be Your Portfolio’s Hedge Against Inflation Everyone uses semiconductors. But only a small number of people know what they are and what they do. If you use a smartphone, computer, microwave, digital camera or refrigerator (and that’s just the tip of the iceberg), you have a need for semiconductors. That’s why their importance can’t be overstated and their disruption in the supply chain has such a global effect. But every cloud has a silver lining. Shockwaves to the international supply chain from the global pandemic have unearthed a tremendous opportunity for investors. And today, Zacks' leading stock strategist is revealing the one semiconductor stock that stands to gain the most in a new FREE report. It's yours at no cost and with no obligation.>>Yes, I Want to Help Protect My Portfolio During the RecessionWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks8 hr. 32 min. ago Related News

5 Best Inverse-Leveraged ETFs of September

Inverse and inverse-leveraged ETFs either create an inverse short position or a leveraged inverse short position in the underlying index through the use of swaps, options, futures contracts and other financial instruments. Wall Street has been being badly hit in September as Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have sparked fears of a recession. The three major bourses are in deep red over the past month. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are down 8.2% and 7.7%, respectively, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index underperformed, plunging 9%.This has resulted in huge demand for inverse or inverse-leveraged ETFs as these fetch outsized returns on bearish sentiments in a short span. Direxion Daily MSCI Real Estate Bear 3X Shares DRV, Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares SOXS, MicroSectors FANG & Innovation -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN BERZ, ETFMG 2x Daily Inverse Alternative Harvest ETF MJIN and Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares TZA might continue their strong performance if sentiments remain the same.Inverse and inverse-leveraged ETFs either create an inverse short position or a leveraged inverse short position in the underlying index through the use of swaps, options, futures contracts and other financial instruments. Due to their compounding effect, investors can enjoy higher returns in a very short time, provided the trend prevails.The S&P 500 hit lows last seen in late November 2020, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell into bear territory early this week. The renewed selling pressure came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised interest rates by another 75 bps. This marks the third consecutive rate hike of 0.75% and pushed the benchmark interest rate to 3.0-3.25%, the highest level since 2008 (read: ETFs That Won After Fed Rate Hike).With inflation nearly at a 40-year high, the central bank also signaled that additional large rate hikes were likely at the upcoming meetings as it combats inflation. Fed officials now expect the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, a full percentage point above 3.25% to 3.5% to end 2022 that was projected in June. This means that the central bank could approve another three-quarter point hike at its November meeting and then a half-point rate rise in December. Economists warned that the rapid tightening would hurt the labor and housing markets, thereby pushing the economy into recession and impacting the stock market.Direxion Daily MSCI Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (DRV) – Up 65.2%Direxion Daily MSCI Real Estate Bear 3X Shares seeks to deliver three times the inverse performance of MSCI US REIT Index. It has AUM of $202.8 million and an average daily volume of around 468,000 shares.Direxion Daily MSCI Real Estate Bear 3X Shares charges 95 bps in fees per year (read: Short Rate-Sensitive Sectors With These ETFs).Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares (SOXS) – Up 57.9%Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares targets the semiconductor corner of the technology sector with three times inverse leveraged exposure to the ICE Semiconductor Index.Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares has amassed about $545.9 million in its asset base while charging 95 bps in fees per year. Volume is good as it exchanges 66.7 million shares per day on average.MicroSectors FANG & Innovation -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN (BERZ) – Up 52.1%MicroSectors FANG & Innovation -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN is linked to the three times leveraged inverse performance of the Solactive FANG Innovation Index. The index tracks the stock prices of 15 large-capitalization, highly liquid U.S. technology stocks.With AUM of $20.5 million, MicroSectors FANG & Innovation -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN has an expense ratio of 0.95% and trades in an average daily volume of 260,000 shares.ETFMG 2x Daily Inverse Alternative Harvest ETF (MJIN) – Up 43.2%ETFMG 2x Daily Inverse Alternative Harvest ETF provides leveraged inverse exposure to companies within the cannabis ecosystem bene???tting from global medicinal and recreational cannabis legalization initiatives. It measures the two times opposite performance of the return of the Prime Alternative Harvest Index.ETFMG 2x Daily Inverse Alternative Harvest ETF has amassed $1.4 million and trades in average daily volume of 24.000 shares. It charges 95 bps in fees per year.Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) – Up 39.9%Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares provides three times inverse exposure to the Russell 2000 Index, charging 94 bps in fees and expenses. It has been able to manage $540.3 million in its asset base with a heavy average daily volume of 9.4 million shares (read: Should You Buy Small Cap ETFs Now?).Bottom LineWhile the strategy is highly beneficial for short-term traders, it could lead to huge losses compared with traditional funds in fluctuating or seesawing markets. Further, their performances could vary significantly from the actual performance of their underlying index over a longer period compared to a shorter period (such as weeks or months) due to their compounding effect (see: all the Inverse Equity ETFs here).Still, for ETF investors bearish on equities for the near term, either of the above products could make an interesting choice. Clearly, these could be intriguing for those with a high-risk tolerance and a belief that the “trend is the friend” in this specific corner of the investing world. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA): ETF Research Reports Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (DRV): ETF Research Reports Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS): ETF Research Reports MicroSectors FANG & Innovation 3X Inverse Leveraged ETN (BERZ): ETF Research Reports ETFMG 2X Daily Inverse Alternative Harvest ETF (MJIN): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks8 hr. 32 min. ago Related News

Metals Stocks: Gold futures head higher as dollar holds below 20-year highs

Gold futures climb on Friday, along with the rest of the precious metals market, as the U.S. dollar eases off of 20-year highs reached earlier this week......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch9 hr. 32 min. ago Related News

Top and Flop ETFs of Nine Months of 2022

We have highlighted the three ETFs each from the best and worst-performing zones of the nine months of 2022. The stock markets across the globe are struggling this year as consumer prices are showing no signs of easing, compelling the central banks to fight against inflation by raising interest rates once again. In fact, the Federal Reserve has been on an aggressive tightening policy to bring down inflation, which is near its highest levels since the early 1980s.In its fight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised interest rates by 75 bps for the fourth consecutive time that pushed the benchmark rate to 3.0-3.25%, the highest level since 2008. The rapid tightening has sparked worries over recession, leading to a sell-off in the stock markets. Additionally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in supply-chain issues while most of the developed and developing economies are witnessing a slowdown.Meanwhile, the hot commodity market started to cool off in recent months and the yields are hovering around their multi-year highs (read: Higher Yields to Fuel Rally in These ETFs).Given this, we have highlighted the three ETFs each from the best and worst-performing zones of the nine months of 2022:Best ZonesEnergyEnergy prices have been soaring this year, with natural gas on a tear buoyed by supply disruptions, adverse weather conditions and declining inventories. United States Natural Gas Fund UNG is the biggest winner, gaining 89.7% so far this year. United States Natural Gas Fund provides direct exposure to the price of natural gas on a daily basis through futures contracts. If the near-month contract is within two weeks of expiration, the benchmark will be the next month's contract to expire.United States Natural Gas Fund has AUM of $467.1 million and trades in a volume of around 6.3 million shares per day. The fund has 1.11% in expense ratio.Hedge FundInvestors flocked to Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF PFIX to combat rising rate worries. Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF seeks to provide a hedge against a sharp increase in long-term interest rates and benefit from market stress when fixed-income volatility increases, while providing the potential for income. It buys put options on longer-term Treasury bonds to offer “the most liquid and the most cost-efficient way of getting interest rate protection.” Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF is the first ETF providing a simple, direct and transparent interest rate hedge (read: 5 ETFs Up 20% or More in the First Nine Months of 2022).PFIX has accumulated $361.2 million in its asset base and trades in an average daily volume of 160,000 shares. It charges 50 bps in annual fees and has gained 78.3% so far this year.Long/ShortLong/short ETFs are less volatile, less risky and relatively stable when compared to the market-cap counterparts. These products provide hedging facilities that protect the portfolio from huge losses in turbulent times. The long/short strategy takes the best of both bull and bear prediction by involving buying and short selling of equities at the same time.KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF KMLM is leading in this space, gaining 45%. It is benchmarked to the KFA MLM Index, which consists of a portfolio of 22 liquid futures contracts traded on U.S. and foreign exchanges. The index includes futures contracts on 11 commodities, six currencies, and five global bond markets. These three baskets are weighted by their relative historical volatility, and within each basket, the constituent markets are equal-dollar weighted.KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF has amassed $275.8 million in its asset base and trades in an average daily volume of 81,000 shares. It charges 92 bps in annual fees.Worst ZonesTechnologyThe technology sector has been badly caught in a selling spree triggered by rate hikes. This is because it relies on easy borrowing for superior growth, and its value depends heavily on future earnings. A rise in long-term yields lowers the present value of companies’ future earnings, sparking fears of overvaluation. VanEck Vectors Digital Transformation ETF DAPP has tumbled 73.3% this year.VanEck Vectors Digital Transformation ETF aims to offer exposure to companies that are at the forefront of the digital asset transformation, such as digital asset exchanges, payment gateways, digital asset mining operations, software services, equipment and technology or services to the digital asset operations, digital asset infrastructure businesses or companies facilitating commerce with the use of digital assets. VanEck Vectors Digital Transformation ETF tracks the MVIS Global Digital Assets Equity Index and holds 25 securities in its basket.VanEck Vectors Digital Transformation ETF charges 50 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 93,000 shares. DAPP has accumulated $28.9 million in its asset base.ShippingThough the shipping ETF performed well in September, it is among the worst performers due to declining freight rates amid waning dry bulk demand. Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF BDRY has plunged 69.6% so far this year. It is the only freight futures ETF exclusively focused on the dry bulk shipping market through a portfolio of near-dated freight futures contracts on dry bulk indices.Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF holds freight futures with a weighted average of approximately three months to expiration, using a mix of one-to-six-month freight futures based on the prevailing calendar schedule (read: 5 ETFs That Survived September Slump With Double-Digit Gains).Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF has accumulated about $44.2 million in AUM and trades in a good volume of about 334,000 shares per day on average. It charges a higher annual fee of 2.85%.CannabisBeing a high-growth sector, cannabis has been a victim of a round of broad market sell-off. AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF YOLO has tumbled 67.6% so far this year. It is an actively managed fund with a dedicated cannabis investment mandate domiciled in the United States. YOLO seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in both domestic and foreign cannabis equity securities.AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF holds a basket of 24 stocks with a double-digit exposure to the top two firms. American firms make up 61.4% of the portfolio, followed by a 28.7% share of the Canadian firms.AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF has gathered $57.4 million in its asset base and charges 76 bps in annual fees. YOLO trades in an average daily volume of 53,000 shares. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG): ETF Research Reports Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY): ETF Research Reports AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO): ETF Research Reports KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF (KMLM): ETF Research Reports VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP): ETF Research Reports Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks10 hr. 0 min. ago Related News

3 Dividend Yield Mutual Funds to Buy Now for Regular Income

Invest in high dividend-paying mutual funds, like ABRYX, CABIX and RAPZX to generate regular income. The Federal Reserve has adopted an aggressive monetary policy to tame inflation with yet another 75-basis point interest rate hike in its last meeting in September. The consumer price index (CPI) for the month of August rose 0.1% after remaining unchanged for the month of July, mostly because of the increasing prices of goods and services, including rents, food and healthcare.Inflation is still hovering at a four-decade high and is pinching hard the pockets of an average American. The Fed chairman has signaled in his speech that the central bank would continue with its rate hike stance to bring inflation to its desired level of around 2%.Investors suffering from the beginning of this year have reacted bearishly toward Fed’s hawkish stance since such tightening measures to curb inflation might derail economic growth in the near future. After all, interest rate hikes will increase the cost of borrowing, impact consumer spending, increase unemployment and slow down economic growth, which will eventually push the economy toward a recession. The S&P 500, the DOW & the Nasdaq declined 23.62%, 19.57%, and 31.37%, respectively, so far this year.On the other hand, the incessant Russia-Ukraine war and rising military tension between China and Taiwan are also disrupting the global supply-chain environment in their own ways. Thus, investors looking to diversify their portfolios and earn a regular income in such uncertain times can choose to invest in dividend-paying mutual funds.Mutual funds, in general, reduce transaction costs and diversify their portfolios without an array of commission charges that are mostly associated with stock purchases (read more: Mutual Funds: Advantages, Disadvantages, and How They Make Investors Money).We have, thus, selected three mutual funds that have a promising dividend yield, have given impressive 3-year and 5-year annualized returns, boast a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy), offer a minimum initial investment within $5,000 and carry a low expense ratio.Invesco Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund ABRYX seeks to achieve positive returns during a market downturn by investing in derivative instruments like futures, options, currency forward contracts and swap agreements. ABRYX invests in multiple asset classes.Mark Ahnrud has been the lead manager of ABRYX since Jun 2, 2009, and most of the fund’s exposure is in sectors such as the money market, U.S. treasury bonds and U.S. treasury bills.ABRYX’s dividend yield is 13.9%. The fund’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively. The annual expense ratio of 1.04% is lower than the category average of 1.29%. ABRYX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2.To see how this fund performed compared in its category, and other 1 and 2 Ranked Mutual Funds, please click here.A.B. Global Risk Allocation Fund Class I CABIX seeks total return consistent with reasonable risks through income-generation and long-term growth of capital by investing in a portfolio of global asset classes, including equity/credit, fixed-income, and inflation-sensitive instruments. CABIX also invests in hybrid securities.Leon Zhu has been the lead manager of CABIX since Oct 8, 2012, and most of the fund’s exposure is in sectors such as others, technology and finance.CABIX’s dividend yield is 10.0%. The fund’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 6.6% and 5.1%, respectively. The annual expense ratio of 1.07% is lower than the category average of 1.29%. CABIX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1.Cohen & Steers Real Assets Fund Inc Class Z RAPZX invests most of its net assets domestic and foreign companies with exposure in real estate companies, including real estate investment trusts, commodities, natural resource companies, infrastructure companies, and gold and other precious metals. RAPZX also invests in short-term, fixed-income securitiesBenjamin Morton has been the lead manager of RAPZX since Jan 31, 2012, and most of the fund’s exposure is in sectors such as others, finance and industrial cyclical.RAPZX’s dividend yield is 7.6%. The fund’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 9.0% and 6.7%, respectively. The annual expense ratio of 0.80% is lower than the category average of 1%. RAPZX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1.Want key mutual fund info delivered straight to your inbox?Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing mutual funds, each week Get it free >> This Little-Known Semiconductor Stock Could Be Your Portfolio’s Hedge Against Inflation Everyone uses semiconductors. But only a small number of people know what they are and what they do. If you use a smartphone, computer, microwave, digital camera or refrigerator (and that’s just the tip of the iceberg), you have a need for semiconductors. That’s why their importance can’t be overstated and their disruption in the supply chain has such a global effect. But every cloud has a silver lining. Shockwaves to the international supply chain from the global pandemic have unearthed a tremendous opportunity for investors. And today, Zacks' leading stock strategist is revealing the one semiconductor stock that stands to gain the most in a new FREE report. It's yours at no cost and with no obligation.>>Yes, I Want to Help Protect My Portfolio During the RecessionWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Get Your Free (RAPZX): Fund Analysis Report Get Your Free (ABRYX): Fund Analysis Report Get Your Free (CABIX): Fund Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks10 hr. 0 min. ago Related News

Bounce In Futures Fizzles As Dollar Surge Returns

Bounce In Futures Fizzles As Dollar Surge Returns If yesterday markets made little sense, when the dollar and yields slumped yet stocks and other risk assets tumbled alongside them in a puzzling reversal of traditional risk relationships (a move which was likely precipitated by the plunge in AAPL and KMX), today things are a bit more logical with the dollar initially extending its slide helping futures rise to session highs just below 3,700, before the dollar surged just after 5am as sterling tumbled after Bloomberg reported that Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government signaled it was sticking with its plan for tax cuts after a meeting with the UK’s fiscal watchdog, dashing market expectations that a policy U-turn might be imminent which has pushed cable briefly above 1.12 overnight, wiping out a week's worth of losses. As a result, after rising as much as 0.8%, S&P futures were flat, up just 0.1%, the same as Nasdaq futures. Government bonds rallied across Europe and the US, as the dollar strengthened after reversing its earlier loss. In premarket trading, Nike shares fall 10% after the sportswear giant cut its margin outlook for the year while reporting surging inventory, fueling worries over consumers’ ability to spend as inflation takes a toll. Micron shares rose 3% in premarket trading, after analysts said the ongoing inventory correction was only a short-term hurdle and that the bottom is near, a potential relief for semiconductor stocks that have taken a beating this year. Amylyx Pharmaceuticals’s (AMLX US) shares soared as much as 13% in US premarket trading after winning FDA approval for its Relyvrio drug, for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in adults. Analysts said they expected the drug to see a strong launch given demand from patients. Xos jumped 6.3% in extended trading after delivering 13 battery-electric vehicles to FedEx. Thursday's bruising session took the S&P 500 down 2% to the lowest in almost two years and the Nasdaq 100 tumbling almost 4%. The S&P 500 Index has dropped on seven of the past 8 days, and is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-2009 and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index for the first time in 20 years. Fears of global recession are growing by the day as the threat of higher rates saps growth and as the Fed confirms with every speech that not even a recession will stop it. The case of the UK shows how faultlines between government and central bank policy on tackling inflation can erupt into a crisis. Hopes evaporated that the British government would succumb to pressure to back down from tax cuts that brought the pound to the edge of dollar parity. “Today, everything is just oversold so you are seeing a rebound,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA. “We are closer to bottoms and sentiment is so negative the downside is becoming more limited.” Elsewhere, Global equity funds garnered inflows of $7.6 billion in the week to Sept. 28, according to data compiled by EPFR Global. Bonds had $13.7 billion of outflows in the week, while $8.9 billion flowed into US stocks, the data showed. In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.9%. Real estate, energy and retailers are the strongest-performing sectors.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Krones shares rose as much as 2.7% to their highest intra-day level since Feb. 2022, after HSBC increased the German machinery and equipment company’s price target to EU102 Clariant shares rally by the most intraday since mid-May after Credit Suisse raises to outperform, partly as it expects Clariant’s new management team to boost performance ABN Amro jumped as much as 6.3% after Goldman Sachs raised the stock to buy from neutral, citing its gearing toward higher interest rates, increasing estimates on net interest income Zealand Pharma rise as much as 35%, the most on record, after the company announced positive data from its phase 3 trial of glepaglutide to treat patients with short bowel syndrome Sinch shares rise as much as 24% after SoftBank sold its entire stake in Sinch AB following a share price collapse of more than 90% in the Swedish cloud-based platform provider Adidas and Puma drop as their US peer Nike slumped in late trading Thursday after it said inventory buildup forced it to push through margin-busting discounts Hurricane Energy shares drop as much as 5.6% after 1H earnings; Canaccord Genuity notes the results did not surprise, and flags lack of regulatory reassurance on gas-management approvals Fingerprint Cards shares drop as much as 17% after saying it is raising fresh capital in order to strengthen the balance sheet and to address a forecasted covenant breach Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell again, putting the regional benchmark on course for its worst monthly performance since 2008, as a selloff spurred by concerns over higher interest rates and a global recession deepened. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5% after earlier falling as much as 1% on Friday. Still down over 12% this month, the gauge has trailed global peers and is set to cap a seventh straight week of declines. That matches its losing streak from September 2015, which was the longest since 2011. Equities in Japan, which has the highest weight in the Asia index, were among the biggest losers on Friday, with the Topix falling 1.8%. Consumer discretionary and industrials were the worst sectors, while Chinese tech shares listed in Hong Kong also fell. READ: China Shares Plunge to Lowest Valuation on Record in Hong Kong Global funds have pulled almost $10 billion from Asian emerging-market stocks excluding China this month, as the dollar and Treasury yields climbed after Federal Reserve officials ramped up their rate-hike rhetoric. Taiwan’s tech-heavy market has suffered the bulk of the outflow from Asia. Its regulators tightened short selling rules as shares extended their slide.  “I think emerging markets as a whole are still going to have a pretty difficult six months until the Fed rate peaks,” Louis Lau, a fund manager at Brandes Investment Partners, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. How much damage is a strong dollar causing? That’s the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. It’s brief and we don’t collect your name or any contact information. Please click here to share your views. The turmoil in the UK has been another source of market volatility for Asia investors, who continue to grapple with the fallout from strict lockdowns in China, the region’s biggest economy. “There’s been some correlation (between risk assets and sterling) recently,” said Takeo Kamai, head of execution services at CLSA. Overall, “the theme hasn’t changed. The scenario that the Fed will cut rates next year is breaking down. I think we could see further downside in stock prices towards November,” he said. Stocks in India gained after the central bank raised the benchmark rate by an expected 50 basis points. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 4% this week and on course for its lowest close since April 2020 Japanese equities extended declines on Friday as a global market rout deepened, capping its worst month since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.    The Topix Index fell 1.8% to 1,835.94 as of market close Tokyo time, taking declines in September to 6.5%. The Nikkei declined 1.8% to 25,937.21. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 4.2%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 299 rose and 1,823 fell, while 47 were unchanged.  Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising interest rates to rein in high inflation.  “There are concerns that the economy will slow from further rate hikes while inflation doesn’t stop,” said Kenji Ueno, a portfolio manager at Sompo Asset Management. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.2% to close at 6,474.20, dragged by banks and industrials, after another plunge on Wall Street as the prospect of higher interest rates and turmoil in Europe stoked fears of global recession. The benchmark notched its third-straight week of losses. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.2% to 11,065.71 Stocks in India outperformed Asian peers after the Reserve Bank of India raised borrowing costs and exuded confidence to tackle inflation without any major impact to its growth projections. The S&P BSE Sensex added 1.8% to 57,426.92, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index rose by 1.6% as the indexes posted their biggest single-day jump since Aug. 30. Despite the rally, the key gauges fell more than 1% each for the week and over 3% for the month, their biggest decline since June. India’s central bank raised its repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.90%, matching the expectations of most economists. The RBI trimmed the economic growth outlook for the financial year ending March to 7% while retaining it 6.7% forecast for inflation.  The increase in the benchmark interest rate “mainly supports stocks of financial companies, which have been seeing strong credit growth,” said Prashanth Tapse, an analyst at Mehta Securities.  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded after sliding initially, as cable tumbled when it emerged that Liz Truss is not backtracking on its massive fiscal easing. Iniitlally, the pound advanced a fourth day, to briefly trade above $1.12, fully reversing the moves since last Friday, however it then tumbled, wiping out all gains after Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government signaled it’s sticking with its plan for tax cuts after a meeting with the UK’s fiscal watchdog, dashing market expectations that a policy U-turn might be imminent. Notable data: U.K. 2Q final GDP rises 0.2% q/q versus preliminary -0.1%. The Aussie and kiwi crept higher, but are still set for their biggest monthly declines since April as rising Fed interest rates and fears of a global economic slowdown sap demand for risk assets In rates, Treasuries advanced, 10-year yield dropping 8bps while bunds 10-year yield drops 6bps to 2.11%. Treasury 10-year yields around 3.685%, richer by 10bp on the day -- largest moves seen in UK front-end where 2-year yields are richer by 25bp on the day as BOE tightening premium fades out of interest-rate swaps. Short-end UK bonds surged amid political pressure on the government to water down some of its budget proposals, while the pound regained its budget-shock losses. US session focus is on PCE data and host of Federal Reserve speakers while month end may add some support into long end of the curve.  Long end of the Treasuries curve may find additional month-end related buying support over the session; Bloomberg index projects 0.07yr Treasury extension for October. Gilts rallied, with short-end bonds leading gains as traders trimmed BOE tightening bets amid political pressure on the government to water down some of its budget proposals. Meanwhile in Japan, JGBs gained after the BOJ boosted purchases for maturities covering the benchmark 10-year zone. The Bank of Japan will buy more bonds with maturities of at least five years in the October-December period, according to a statement from the central bank In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 1.3% to near $82.26. Spot gold rises roughly $10 to trade near $1,671/oz.  Bitcoin is essentially unchanged and in very tight ranges of circa. USD 400 and as such well within the week's existing parameters Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI release for September, as well as the Euro Area unemployment rate for August and German unemployment for September. In the US, we’ll also get August data on personal income and personal spending, the MNI Chicago PMI for September, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Finally, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Brainard, the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Williams, as well as the ECB’s Schnabel, Elderson and Visco. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 3,686.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 387.83 MXAP down 0.5% to 139.25 MXAPJ little changed at 453.72 Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,937.21 Topix down 1.8% to 1,835.94 Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 17,222.83 Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,024.39 Sensex up 2.0% to 57,539.66 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 6,474.20 Kospi down 0.7% to 2,155.49 Brent Futures up 1.2% to $89.55/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,671.56 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.52% to 111.67 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.10% Euro up 0.3% to $0.9840 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Prime Minister Liz Truss is under pressure to cut spending on the same scale as George Osborne’s infamous austerity drive of 2010 in order to stabilize the UK public finances and win back the confidence of investors Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng are holding talks Friday with the UK government’s fiscal watchdog, amid intense criticism over their unfunded tax cuts that roiled markets A dash for cash among sterling investors after market turmoil sparked by pension fund margin calls is coming at a bad time, according to an M&G Investments executive The ECB shouldn’t let concerns about its profitability obstruct decision-making over monetary policy, according to Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus The SNB trimmed its foreign-exchange portfolio in the second quarter as the franc gyrated against the euro before rising above parity for the first time since 2015. The central bank sold 5 million francs ($5.1 million) worth of foreign currencies in the three months through June Norway’s central bank will increase its purchases of foreign currency to 4.3 billion kroner ($400 million) a day in October from 3.5 billion in September as it deposits energy revenues into the $1.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund. Japan’s factory output expanded by 2.7% in August from July, according to the economy ministry Friday, beating analysts’ 0.2% forecast. The output of semiconductor and flat-panel making equipment hit its highest level in data going back to 2003, as the effect of lockdowns in China abated Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed the government Friday to come up with an economic stimulus package by the end of October to help mitigate the impact of inflation, as economists warned against over-sized spending China’s factory activity continued to struggle in September, while services slowed, as the country’s economic recovery was challenged by lockdowns in major cities and an ongoing property market downturn. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.1 from 49.4 in August An organization formed by China’s biggest foreign- exchange traders asked banks to trade the currency at levels closer to the central bank’s fixing at the market open, according to people familiar with the matter A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower after the negative performance across global peers amid inflationary headwinds and with risk appetite subdued heading quarter-end, while the region also digested mixed Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 declined amid weakness across most sectors and with tech the notable underperformer after the recent upside in yields and with Meta the latest major industry player to announce a hiring freeze. Nikkei 225 was pressured and fell below the 26,000 level with better-than-expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data releases overshadowed by the broad risk aversion. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after the PBoC conducted its largest weekly cash injection in more than 32 months ahead of the week-long closure in the mainland, while participants also digested mixed PMI data in which Official Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansion, but Non-Manufacturing and Composite PMIs slowed and Caixin Manufacturing PMI printed at a wider contraction. NIFTY eventually notched mild gains in the aftermath of the RBI rate decision in which it hiked the Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.90% as expected via 5-1 split and with the central bank refraining from any major hawkish surprises. Top Asian News Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they want to compile an extra budget swiftly after the economic package in late October, while they will consider further support for hard-hit consumers and businesses in view of higher energy and food prices, as well as consider steps to promote wage hikes, according to Reuters. Chinese Finance Ministry is to offer a tax refund for people who sell their homes and repurchases new ones by the end of 2023; additionally, China has told banks to provide USD 85bln in property funding by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg. Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.1 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.4); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.6 vs Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.6) Chinese Composite PMI (Sep) 50.9 (Prev. 51.7) Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 48.1 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.5) Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Aug P) 2.7% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.8%); Retail Sales YY (Aug) 4.1% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.4%) European equities are attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s downside on quarter and month end. Sectors are firmer across the board with Real Estate outperforming peers in what has been a tough week for the UK property market. Stateside, futures are also attempting to recover from yesterday’s losses which saw a tough session for the tech sector after Apple shed the best part of 5%. Top European News UK OBR Chair Hughes says a statement will be released today after the meeting with UK PM Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng. On this, the UK Treasury has not sought to accelerate watchdog's economic forecast, according to Bloomberg. Reminder, UK PM Truss to conduct emergency talks with the OBR on Friday after failing to calm markets, according to the Guardian. UK cross-party MPs in the Treasury Select Committee called for Chancellor Kwarteng to release a full economic forecast from the OBR by end of October, according to Sky News. UK PM Truss has confirmed she will attend next week's European Political Community summit, via BBC. Reports that technical level discussions between the UK and EU could resume as soon as next week, via BBC's Parker; writing, that there has been a 'warmer' tone in recent weeks, some believe pressure from the US on the UK has had influence. German VDMA, survey of members: majority expect nominal sales growth in 2022 and 2023. FX GBP's revival has continued ahead of a meeting between PM Truss and the OBR, with a statement expected, a move that has taken Cable above 1.12 but shy of mini-Budget levels. USD is firmer overall but continues to retreat from YTD peaks, though the DXY is seemingly drawn to the 112.00 area. Yuan derived further, fleeting, support from reports the FX body has asked banks to trade closer to the onshore fixing. Elsewhere, FX peers are under modest pressure but more contained vs USD; EUR unfased by a record EZ flash CPI print of 10.0%. Fixed Income Benchmarks bid but modestly off best levels with Bunds leading the charge, but well within recent ranges, amid potential month/quarter-end influence. Gilts lifted, but the 10yr yield remains above 4.0% ahead of the OBR statement. Stateside, USTs are equally buoyed ahead of a packed PM agenda include PCE Price Index and Fed speak. Commodities The broader commodity market is benefitting from a pullback in the USD coupled with a broader risk appetite. Metals are buoyed by the recent pullback in the Dollar with spot gold edging above its 10 DMA (USD 1,656.72/oz) and towards the USD 1,680/oz mark which coincides with the yellow metal’s 21DMA (USD 1,680.56/oz) and 200WMA (USD 1,680.20/oz). Base metals are also firmer across the board with 3M LME copper back above the USD 7,500/t mark, whilst nickel and aluminium outperform on the exchange. Central Banks China loosened FX restrictions in response to the Fed rate hike and the yuan's fall over the past week, according to people familiar with the matter cited by FT. China's FX body is reportedly asking banks to trade the Yuan closer to the PBoC fixing, according to Bloomberg. PBoC injected CNY 128bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 58bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 184bln net daily injection and a net CNY 868bln weekly injection. RBI hiked Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.90%, as expected, via 5-1 vote and the Standing Deposit Facility was adjusted to 5.65%. RBI Governor Das said MPC is to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation and that the persistence of high inflation necessitates further calibrated withdrawal of monetary accommodation. However, Das noted that the Indian economy continues to be resilient with economic activity stable and overall monetary and liquidity conditions still remain accommodative, while Real GDP growth forecast for 2022/23 was revised lower to 7.0% from 7.2% and 2022/23 CPI was seen at 6.7%. RBI is reportedly encouraging state-run refiners to reduce USD buying in the spot market; asking to lean on USD 9bln credit line instead, according to Reuters sources. BoE was reportedly warned about a looming catastrophe in the pensions sector within the next 5 years before it was forced to intervene to prevent a market collapse, according to The Telegraph. Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said a downshift in economic activity and labour is needed to bring down inflation and additional rate increases are necessary and appropriate. Daly also stated that a myriad of risks narrows the path to a smooth landing but does not close it, while she added they have gotten rates to neutral and expect to raise rates further in coming meetings and early next year. Norges Bank will purchase FX equivalent to NOK 4.3bln/day in October (3.5bln in September); reflecting an increase in projected NOK revenues from petroleum activity. Geopolitics Russian President Putin signed decrees recognising occupied Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as independent territories which is an intermediate step before the regions are formally incorporated into Russia, according to Reuters. ** Russia's Kremlin says strikes against the new territories incorporated into Russia will be considered an act of aggression against Russia**; says Ukraine has shown no willingness to negotiate, via Reuters. Russia's Spy Chief says they have material which show a Western role in Nord Stream incidents, via Ifx. Armenia's Foreign Ministry says their Ministers and Azerbaijani counterparts will meet in Geneva on October 2nd, via AJA Breaking. US Event Calendar 08:30: Aug. Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% Aug. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2% Aug. Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2% Aug. PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1% Aug. PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1% Aug. PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 4.6% Aug. PCE Deflator YoY, est. 6.0%, prior 6.3% 09:45: Sept. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 51.8, prior 52.2 10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 58.9, prior 58.9 U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 59.5, prior 59.5 U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 59.9, prior 59.9 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.6%, prior 4.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8% Central Bank Speakers 08:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Chamber of Commerce Event 09:00: Fed’s Brainard Speaks at Fed Conference on Financial Stability 11:00: Fed’s Bowman Discusses Large Bank Supervision 12:30: Fed’s Barkin Discusses the Drivers of Inflation 16:15: Williams Speaks at Fed Conference on Financial Stability DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As we arrive at the end of a tumultuous month in financial markets, there’s been little sign of respite for investors over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-2.11%) reversing the previous day’s gains to close at a 21-month low. There were a number of factors behind the latest selloff, but fears of further rate hikes were prominent after the US weekly initial jobless claims showed that the labour market was still in decent shape, whilst the PCE inflation readings for Q2 were revised higher as well. That came alongside fresh signals of inflationary pressures in Europe, where German inflation in September moved into double-digits for the first time in over 70 years. Thanks to some hawkish rhetoric from central bank officials on top of that, the result was that the synchronised selloff for equities and bonds continued. In fact, barring a massive turnaround today, both the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 are on course for their third consecutive quarterly decline, which is the first time that’s happened to either index since the financial crisis. We’ll come to some of that below, but here in the UK there were signs that the market turmoil was beginning to stabilise slightly relative to earlier in the week. For instance, sterling (+2.09%) strengthened against the US Dollar for a third consecutive session, moving back above $1.10 for the first time since last Friday when the mini-budget was announced, and at a couple of points overnight was very briefly trading above $1.12. Indeed, it was the strongest-performing G10 currency on the day, so this wasn’t simply a case of dollar weakness. In the meantime, investors moved again to lower the chances of an emergency inter-meeting hike from the Bank of England, instead looking ahead to the next scheduled MPC meeting on November 3. That followed a speech from BoE Chief Economist Pill, in which he said “it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the fiscal easing announced last week will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November.” However, gilts continued to struggle yesterday following the massive Wednesday rally after the BoE’s intervention. Yields on 10yr gilts were up by +13.0bps by the close, a larger increase than for German bunds (+6.4bps) or French OATs (+8.0bps). Furthermore, the spread on the UK’s 5yr credit default swaps closed at its highest level since 2013, so there are still plenty of signs of investor jitters. That came as the government showed no signs of U-turning on their programme of tax cuts, with Prime Minister Truss saying “I’m very clear the government has done the right thing”. It’s also worth noting that one factor seen as supporting sterling overnight was growing speculation that Truss might come under political pressure to reverse course on the fiscal announcements, particularly after a YouGov poll gave the opposition Labour Party a 33-point lead, which is its largest in any poll since the late-1990s. We also heard from the Conservative chair of the Treasury Select Committee, who tweeted that Chancellor Kwarteng should bring forward the November 23 statement on his medium-term fiscal plan and publish the independent OBR forecast as soon as possible. Away from the UK, the broader selloff in financial markets resumed yesterday as investors priced in a more hawkish response from central banks over the months ahead. In the US, that followed a fresh round of data that was collectively seen as offering the Fed more space to keep hiking rates. First, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to a 5-month low of 193k over the week ending September 24. That was beneath the 215k reading expected, and the previous week was also revised down by -4k. Nor was this just a blip either, as the 4-week moving average is now at its lowest level since late May as well. In the meantime, we had an upward revision to core PCE in Q2, taking the rate up by three-tenths to an annualised +4.7%. Those data releases came alongside some pretty hawkish Fed rhetoric, with Cleveland Fed President Mester saying that a recession wouldn’t stop the Fed from raising rates. And in turn, that led markets to price in a more aggressive Fed reaction, with the terminal rate expected in March 2023 up by +3.0bps on the day. Incidentally, we saw yet further signs that the Fed’s tightening was having an effect on the real economy, with Freddie Mac’s mortgage market survey showing that the average 30-year fixed rate had risen to 6.70%, which is their highest level since 2007. The more hawkish developments were reflected in US Treasury yields too, particularly at the front end, with yields on 2yr Treasuries up +5.8bps to 4.19%, and those on 10yr Treasuries up +5.4bps to 3.79%. Overnight in Asia, yields on the 10yr USTs are fairly stable as we go press, seeing a small +0.3bps rise, whilst those on 2yr Treasuries are up +1.8bps to 4.21%. Europe got a fresh reminder about inflation as well yesterday, after the German CPI release for September came in well above expectations. Using the EU-harmonised measure, inflation rose to +10.9% (vs. +10.2% expected), which marks the first time since 1951 that German inflation has been running in double-digits. Earlier in the day, the German government separately announced that they’d be borrowing another €200bn to cap gas prices, with the previously planned consumer levy not going ahead. Looking forward, it’ll be worth looking out for the flash CPI release for the entire Euro Area today at 10am London time, where the consensus is expecting we’ll see the highest inflation since the formation of the single currency. That would keep the pressure on the ECB, and markets are continuing to price in another 75bps hike as the most likely outcome at the October meeting. With investors digesting the prospect of continued hawkishness from central banks, equities lost further ground over yesterday’s session. The S&P 500 fell -2.11%, meaning the index is now down by nearly a quarter (-24.10%) since its closing peak in early January. The declines were incredibly broad-based across sectors, but interest-sensitive tech stocks struggled in particular, with the NASDAQ (-2.84%) and the FANG+ index (-3.38%) seeing even larger losses. Those heightened levels of volatility were also reflected in the VIX index (+1.7pts), which closed at 31.8pts. For European equities it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-1.67%) closing at a 22-month low. Adding to the tech woes, Meta (-3.67%) joined the growing list of firms announcing a hiring freeze, with the tech giant also issuing a warning of potential restructuring, so it’ll be important to see if this is echoed more broadly and what this means for the labour market. In overnight trading, equity futures are pointing to further losses today, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.25%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.27%) both moving lower. As we arrive at the final day of the month, Asian equities are similarly retreating this morning, putting a number of indices on course for their worst monthly performance in years. For instance, the Nikkei is currently on track for its worst month since March 2020, and the Hang Seng is on track for its worst month since September 2011. In terms of today, the Nikkei (-1.67%) is leading losses in the region with the Shanghai Composite (-0.21%), the CSI (-0.14%), the Kospi (-0.11%) and the Hang Seng (-0.07%) following after that overnight sell-off on Wall Street. One source of better news came from the Chinese PMIs, with the official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly in positive territory in September with a 50.1 reading (vs. 49.7 expected), which is up from a contractionary 49.4 in August. The composite PMI was also in positive territory with a 50.9 reading. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly deteriorated further to 48.1 in September, so not every indicator was positive. In the meantime, Japanese data showed that industrial production growth came in above expectations with a +2.7% reading (vs. +0.2% expected), as did retail sales with growth of +1.4% (vs. +0.2% expected). There wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday. However, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area fell for a 7th consecutive month to 93.7 in September (vs. 95.0 expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI release for September, as well as the Euro Area unemployment rate for August and German unemployment for September. In the US, we’ll also get August data on personal income and personal spending, the MNI Chicago PMI for September, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Finally, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Brainard, the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Williams, as well as the ECB’s Schnabel, Elderson and Visco. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/30/2022 - 08:10.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge10 hr. 45 min. ago Related News

Fed"s Favorite Inflation Indicator Unexpectedly Surges As Personal Spending Jumps

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Unexpectedly Surges As Personal Spending Jumps There goes any hope that despite the US economy sliding into a recession and global markets turmoiling, that inflation would finally relent. Moments ago the BEA reported that in August, personal income and spending came in 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, the former in line with expectations (0.3%) and slightly higher than the 0.2% increase in July, while the latter, spending, printing well above the consensus forecast of 0.2% and far above July's -0.2% decline... ... which meant that the personal savings rate was unchanged on the month, and sticky at just above post Lehman record lows. And even though as the next chart show, the frenzied growth in spending is slowing... ... there is still more than enough to keep inflation red-hot, and indeed the punchline from today's report is that both PCE and core PCE - the Fed's preferred inflation metric - came in well above expectations. To wit, on an annual basis, headline PCE printed 6.2% Y/Y, above the 6.0% expected (below July's 6.4%), while core PCE came in at 4.9%, also above the 4.7% expected, and unchanged from an upward revised July print. But where the PCE data truly stood out was on a MoM basis, where the core print of 0.3%, came in far above last month's -0.1% drop and also well above consensus expectations of 0.1%, while the headline print of 0.6% unexpectedly came just shy of record highs, and above the expected 0.5% print. Needless to say, this is not what the Fed had wanted to see, as it means even more hiking, even more things breaking in the market, and as a result futures slumped in kneejerk response even as 10Y yields slid to session lows, anticipating that even more tightening from the Fed will lead to inevitable recession. As a bonus, here is Academy Securities' Peter Tchir's take on the PCE numbers: Expectations on Bloomberg were for PCE Core Deflator YOY to be 4.7%, with the “whisper” number at 4.8% led by Nick Timiraos from the WSJ (believed by many to be the unofficial voice of the Fed). It came in a touch high at 4.9%, but just like European bonds largely held their own after a high Eurozone CPI of 10%, treasuries holding firm here – a sign that so much is priced in. Spending was better than expected this month, but was ratcheted down last month – so take that with a grain of salt. On the Core, for last month, it was reduced from 0.1% to 0.0%, but the YOY number was revised upward, meaning they found other revisions in even earlier months (a sign of just how “accurate” this data is). Real personal spending has averaged 0% change for the last 2 months – showing signs of the consumer slowing? Remember too, this is all as of end of August when the 10-year averaged 2.89% rather than the 3.5% it averaged this month (look at mortgage rates, credit spreads, and auto loan levels, and they all got worse in September). The S&P 500 averaged 4,158 in August versus 3,868 in September, so any “wealth effect” should have hit the data. I don’t pay close attention to individual stocks, but I went to the transcripts of their earnings calls. Inventory as a constraint was mentioned a couple of times back in the summer of 2021, and not at all in the most recent call. The Manheim Used Car Index is likely to show a price decline YOY when the end of September data comes out. We get Michigan sentiment data, but it would be surprising if inflation expectations went higher. With AAII sentiment survey still 3:1 bears to bulls, the CNN fear and greed index near extreme fear, and QQQ RSI, as one example, at the oversold point, high put to call ratios, I’m adding risk here – specifically U.S. equity risk. (It doesn’t hurt, in my opinion that the GBP and EUR are off their lows from earlier this week). By no means do I think we get a soft landing, but too much Fed based negativity is priced in, and the data could start tilting towards lower inflation than the market (and Fed) have been fixated on. I continue to believe, the ultimate lows will be in a true “risk-off” scenario, where bonds rally while stocks fall, but I think for now, both can limp into month-end and get some strength. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/30/2022 - 08:54.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge10 hr. 45 min. ago Related News

Nike stock tumbles, to cut nearly 60 points off the Dow"s price

Shares of Nike Inc. sank 9.3% in premarket trading Friday, putting them on track to open at the lowest price seen in more than two years, after the athletic apparel and accessories giant warned that it will have to cut prices to clear excess inventory, hurting profit margins. The stock was the only one of the Dow Jones Industrial Average components that was falling in the premarket, as Dow futures rallied 175 points, or 0.6%. Given that Nike's stock was the eighth lowest-priced Dow stock at $95.33 as of Thursday's close, and the Dow is a price-weighed index, the implied price decline from the big percentage selloff would shave only about 58 points off the Dow's price. In comparison, a similar percentage decline in the Dow's highest-priced stock, UnitedHealth Group Inc.'s at $503.83, would cut about 311 points off the Dow's price.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch12 hr. 1 min. ago Related News

Under Armour, Lululemon stocks fall in wake of Nike"s disappointing earnings report

Shares of Under Armour Inc. slumped 2.6% in premarket trading Friday, despite a rally in the broader stock market, as the athletic apparel and gear maker suffered collateral damage from rival Nike Inc.'s a disappointing earnings report. Also getting hit, yoga apparel and gear maker Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s stock slid 2.6% ahead of the open. Meanwhile, futures for the S&P 500 rallied 0.5%. Nike's stock tumbled 10.2% in the premarket, after the company reported late Thursday fiscal first-quarter profit and sales that topped expectations, but warned that gross margins would be hurt for the rest of the fiscal year as it cuts prices to shed excess inventory. Among shares of other Nike rivals, Adidas AG dropped 5.1% and Puma SE sank 5.6% in Germany, while Asics Corp. slumped 10.7% in Japan.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch12 hr. 1 min. ago Related News

Top ETF Stories of Q3

The third quarter was quite a volatile one. While July was upbeat for the market, Wall Street started falling from late August. The third quarter was quite a volatile one. Stocks in the United States and Europe had their biggest monthly increase since November 2020 in July but started falling from late August on renewed rising rate worries and recessionary fears. September too lived up to its ill-repute. Overall, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite lost about 6.5%, 7.3% and 6%, respectively in the past three months (as of Sep 27, 2022). The Russell 2000 too retreated about 17% in the same period. Against this backdrop, below, we highlight a few top ETF stories of the third quarter.Fed Rate Hike Momentum to Continue; Greenback Gains StrengthThe Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised interest rates by another 75 bps in late September. This marked the third consecutive rate hike of 0.75% and pushed the benchmark interest rate to 3.0-3.25%, the highest level since 2008. The central bank also signaled that additional large rate hikes were likely at the upcoming meetings as it combats the near a 40-year high inflation.Fed officials now expect the federal funds rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, a full percentage point above the 3.25% to 3.5% projected in June to end 2022. This means that the central bank could approve another three-quarter point hike at its November meeting and then a half-point rate hike in December. Economists warned that the rapid tightening would hurt the labor and housing spaces, thereby pushing the economy into recession and impacting the stock market.Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP gained about 10% in the past three months on a super-hawkish Fed. Plus, Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) and Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF RRH added about 10.7% and 13.6%, respectively in Q3.Signing of ‘Inflation Reduction Act’U.S. President Joe Biden has also signed a $740 billion climate change, healthcare and tax “Inflation Reduction Act.” The coming Democratic message will likely focus on the aspects of the bill that could improve Americans' lives immediately — including tax credits for electric vehicles and energy-efficient home improvements and key health care provisions.The bill benefits clean energy and electric vehicles sectors meaningfully. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm pointed to a new 30% tax credit for installing energy-efficient windows, heat pumps, or newer models of appliances. A second tax credit encourages people to install solar panels on their roofs, per CNN, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. iShares Global Clean Energy ETF ICLN, Invesco Solar ETF TAN and Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (DRIV) are some of the beneficiaries.Utility ETFs Scaled Highs in August Only to Slump in SeptemberSince volatility and uncertainty persisted, the utilities sector is making the most of it. No wonder, most utility stocks and ETFs are hitting fresh highs. This is always a safe sector and flew high in August. However, the rally in utilities did not last long as rates started rising in September. Utilities Select Sector SPDR XLU is up 1.5% in the past three months (as of Sep 23, 2022).Agriculture WinsSeveral agricultural products won in Q3. Among the lot, iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN JO (up 2.8%) and Teucrium Corn ETF CORN (down 0.6%) deserve special mention. Dry weather in the key producing region of Brazil led to gains in coffee prices. This has hurt the development of coffee buds. Severe drought and lower crop condition ratings have boosted corn prices.However, U.S. corn futures prices backtracked from three-month highs enjoyed earlier this month due to a bearish demand outlook and renewed grain shipping from ports in the Black Sea following an export deal between Russia and Ukraine.Uranium Miners Draw AttentionSprott Uranium Miners ETF URNM gained about 5.8% in the past three months. Share prices of uranium miners jumped as Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida said the nation resumed idled nuclear plants and will focus on developing next-generation reactors to prepare for the soaring energy costs amid the Ukraine crisis. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP): ETF Research Reports Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU): ETF Research Reports Invesco Solar ETF (TAN): ETF Research Reports iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN): ETF Research Reports iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN (JO): ETF Research Reports Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN): ETF Research Reports Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM): ETF Research Reports Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF (RRH): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks12 hr. 16 min. ago Related News