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Five Top European States Young Americans Are Thriving

Despite the current economic climate, and the eye-watering cost of living that has already affected millions of American households, a portion of younger adults are still finding it manageable to thrive financially even as financial anxiety persists. It’s not completely possible to ignore the major economic headwinds many Americans have experienced throughout the year. Skyrocketing […] Despite the current economic climate, and the eye-watering cost of living that has already affected millions of American households, a portion of younger adults are still finding it manageable to thrive financially even as financial anxiety persists. It’s not completely possible to ignore the major economic headwinds many Americans have experienced throughout the year. Skyrocketing inflation has sent consumer prices soaring, leaving consumers baffled over whether they will be able to cope with the increasing cost of living. In June 2022, the Consumer Price Index hit a red-hot 9.1%, the highest recorded in more than four decades. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   During the same time inflation was sending warning signs across the economy, motorists were paying on average $4.96 per gallon of regular gas, in some places such as California, gas prices hit a staggering $6.39 per gallon. Fortunately, since then, gas prices have substantially come down in recent months, but have seen going up by a couple of cents in the last few weeks. Pricier goods and expensive gas isn’t the only thing that’s been hurting American households. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently hiked its prime interest rate by another 75 basis points, marking the highest interest rates have climbed since the financial crisis back in 2007. Jerome Powell, Chair of the FOMC commented that the Federal Reserve will continue to increase the cost of borrowing until they have managed to push inflation down to its target 2% range. The aggressive rate hikes have been a major headwind for not just more financially secure adults, but more so for the younger generations of Americans who were hoping to purchase their first or second home this year. On the back of this, recent indicators have also revealed that the median rental price has also jumped by 4.8% in the past year. Increased consumer demand as people returned to cities, and higher operating costs have sent rental prices spiraling in the last few months. A Redfin rental report from May 2022 revealed that the median price rental price in the country surpassed the $2000 per month threshold for the first time, with the outlook showing possibilities of further increases in the near future. Americans, young and old are paying more for nearly everything these days, and it’s likely to remain this way for the next few years. As economic conditions uncontrollably deteriorate faster than experts predicted, younger Americans are finding it easier and more affordable to relocate abroad in the hopes of enjoying a more affordable lifestyle. While there are several top countries Americans are considering moving to, for many millennials in the U.S. allied European nations are providing them with more attractive jobs and financial opportunities. Recent statistics indicate that among non-European citizens that currently reside within the European Union (EU) 17% relocated for work purposes, 3% for education, and 39% for family-related reasons. Although there is no direct indication of how many of these non-EU citizens were American-born, it, however, paints a vivid picture of how European nations are allowing migrants better opportunities economically. Where in Europe Are Millennials Thriving? While there are countless well-known cities in the U.S.that can offer millennials a place to call home, many are choosing EU nations that allow them an affordable cost of living, financial security, and access to affordable housing. The onset of remote working and work-from-home jobs has only further pivoted many to consider moving abroad. While the odds may be stacked against them in a foreign country, the stronger dollar to Euro is also slightly helping play more in their favor as they settle abroad. On top of that, some of these countries on our list have favorable tax regulations, and overall can offer a better quality of life, something which many younger Americans are seeking amid the cost of living crisis. Let’s see which European states are the top places where young Americans are thriving. Switzerland For decades Switzerland has topped many lists as one of the most livable countries in the world, offering citizens a high quality of life and first-rate public services. While Switzerland isn’t part of the European Union, it still offers a unique European experience like no other with its picturesque scenery, and easy access to neighboring countries including Austria, France, Germany, Italy, and Liechtenstein. Popular cities for expats include Basel, Lausanne, and Zurich, which have been found to be among the best-performing hubs for political stability and urban development. While expats can enjoy better education and healthcare services often subsidized by the government, the cost of living is still more than what the average American could afford. Despite this financial challenge, the multicultural and diverse cities give American millennials a better opportunity to settle and perhaps start a family. Portugal As one of the smaller Western European states, Portugal has been ranked 48th among the 50 major economies in the world. The country has been slowly rebuilding its economy after experiencing major downturns during the first half of the 21st century, and in 2021, inflation was around 1.27%, while the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a 4.7% inflation rate. Like other countries across the world that currently offer remote workers a chance at applying for an Expat Visa, a similar visa allows expats to apply and reside within the country for up to two years. The program allows expats to apply for permanent residency within five years of living in the country, making it one of the easiest routes to European citizenship. Although the country has a lot to offer in terms of public services, such as affordable healthcare and education, the COVID-19 pandemic saw an additional 400,000 Portuguese residents being impoverished due to financial uncertainty. Although there are some challenges that the country will still need to resolve in the coming years, it’s undoubtedly one of the more affordable EU nations which have captured the attention of millennial expats. Iceland Although Iceland is not considered one of the most affordable countries in the world, the country has a lot to offer its residents in terms of public services and recreational attractions. The Nordic nation, which is also known as the land of Fire and Ice, partially due to its active volcanoes, and snow-topped mountain ranges has attracted a small community of expats who are able to afford their way around. Most recent figures revealed that in January 2020, roughly 15.2% of the country’s population was made up of legal immigrants and expats. While the country has a small population of just under 400,000, in recent times it’s become a lot more expat-friendly due to the free movement of people coming from continental Europe and other developed nations. If universal state-sponsored healthcare isn’t something that piques your interest, perhaps the 557 hiking trails, backpacking routes, and numerous camping sites will help decide to relocate a bit easier. Large-scale remote working has also meant that since 2020, the country now offers working-from-home professionals the opportunity to legally reside in the country before having to re-apply for the right to remain. Spain  Ranked as the fourth largest economy in the EU, and 14th globally, Spain has become an international hub for business, tourism, and expats looking to take advantage of the numerous economic benefits the country has to offer. Aside from having a substantially developed economy, the country recently witnessed a surge in international firms being headquartered within its borders, seeing more than 14,600 foreign firms setting up their business in the last few years. On top of this, foreign investors have also found that investment opportunities provide better and more lucrative financial well-being, as the government seeks to provide them with an innovative and progressive workforce. Millennials who reside here enjoy affordable housing, among other economic benefits. There is also a well-functioning healthcare system, and most recent government efforts have seen the country move to improve its tax regulations to attract middle-tier working professionals. Germany Being one of the largest and most progressive economies in the European Union, Germany has ample to offer its residents including universal healthcare, tuition-free schools, and some of the best public transportation the continent has to offer. Industry is one of the country’s strongholds, including automotive, mechanical engineering, chemical, and electrical industries. Like other countries around the world, Germany has been struggling to control soaring inflation which hit a piping hot 10% in September. In an effort to control the rampant running rate at which prices have been increasing, the government has unveiled a €200 billion plan to assist consumers in the fight against the cost of living crisis. Although economic conditions have been tumultuous, the government has been actively working to control uncertainty for residents. The country has a strong workforce and offers ample job opportunities for those in their respective professional fields. If you’re lucky enough to obtain a work or residence permit, it’s definitely worth the effort as many expats have found. The Changing Tide On the bright side, it’s starting to look as if consumers are changing their sentiment in terms of current economic conditions. Recent preliminary data compiled by the University of Michigan showed that the consumer sentiment index increased from 58.2 in August, to 59.5 for the first half of September. While a marginal increment, it remains higher than the 50 recorded in June of this year when the economy started to erode on itself. Although it may still take some time before conditions improve, there is a small enclave of Americans who have been able to thrive in current conditions, as these states not only offer better paying jobs with higher wages, but also a more affordable cost of living. Making a living as an American millennial means that a majority of jobs now offer more competitive salaries, work benefits, and the possibility of working from home or remotely. Although this sounds enticing, millennials are still found to be the most in debt generation in the country, as nearly 73% of them have some form of non-mortgage debt, with the average millennial owing close to $117,000. The high amounts of debt have only further burdened many younger millennials, making it harder for them to properly save for retirement, or put money aside for bigger ventures such as buying a house or property. Again, it comes to show that although millennials may be in a comfortable financial position to some extent, they’re still carrying major debt burdens that will take decades to finish repaying. The Bottom Line While countless factors have made the financial outlook increasingly challenging for millions of Americans, it’s clear that some countries offer them an opportunity to thrive under the current economic climate. With better-paying jobs, booming industries, and evergreen tax provisions, several foreign countries are allowing residents to enjoy a better quality of life even as the cost of living has sent shockwaves across the world. In due time, these and other nations may look to make dramatic changes to the way they attract and retain younger and more skilled workers to help uplift the local economy. Although this may take some time before successfully initiated, it just comes to show that younger Americans are continuously looking for better and more lucrative opportunities, even if this means they need to relocate to a different country. Perhaps this is all temporary, but the future outlook is presenting itself in a completely different way, leaving many young Americans to seek out new ventures that provide them with the financial and social security their older counterparts enjoyed in the decades before......»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk1 hr. 36 min. ago Related News

How Does Keurig Dr Pepper Compare To Larger Rivals Coke & Pepsi?

Keurig Dr. Pepper raised its dividend in September The stock has returned more, year-to-date, than larger rivals Coca-Cola and PepsiCo Keurig Dr. Pepper is part of the S&P 500, and its recent price action is essentially tracking its index With the market continuing to hit the skids, despite Wednesday’s bounce higher, dividend-paying stocks like Keurig […] Keurig Dr. Pepper raised its dividend in September The stock has returned more, year-to-date, than larger rivals Coca-Cola and PepsiCo Keurig Dr. Pepper is part of the S&P 500, and its recent price action is essentially tracking its index With the market continuing to hit the skids, despite Wednesday’s bounce higher, dividend-paying stocks like Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP) may look more and more attractive. But can it bubble to the top of investors’ watch lists, especially when compared to bigger rivals Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP). .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Find A Qualified Financial Advisor Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. Keurig Dr Pepper raised its dividend by 6.7% in mid-September, increasing its annualized dividend rate to $0.80 per share, up from $0.75 per share. The increased quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share is payable on October 14 to shareholders of record on September 30. Its current dividend yield is 2.2%. Coke’s yield stands at 3.1%, and Pepsi’s is 2.7%. What about the total return for each when factoring in price action as well? Year-to-date, here’s how each has performed: Keurig Dr Pepper: +0.74% Coca-Cola: -1.54% PepsiCo: -0.96% All three are large caps and tracked by the S&P 500. Keurig Dr. Pepper joined the index in June, replacing Under Armour (NYSE:UA) which is currently in the small-cap territory. However, Coke and Pepsi have market caps of $244 billion and $229 billion, respectively, dwarfing Keurig Dr. Pepper value of $51 billion. To a degree, the smaller size may explain some of Keurig Dr. Pepper’s outperformance this year, although when you are talking about mega-caps versus large caps, the difference is not always so pronounced. Keurig Dr Pepper’s cold-beverage business was a standout in the second quarter, which the company reported in late July. Hot Sales Of Cold Beverages In the earnings release, the company said its Liquid Refreshment Beverages category remained exceptionally strong, with retail dollar consumption advancing 9.9%, and market share growing or holding across 92% of its cold beverage portfolio. The company said that largely reflected strength in carbonated soft drinks, premium unflavored water, coconut water, seltzers, teas, apple juice, vegetable juice, and fruit drinks. The company’s brands include not only its namesake Dr. Pepper but also Sunkist, Canada Dry, A&W, Squirt, CORE Hydration, Vita Coco, Polar seltzers, Snapple, Hawaiian Punch, and Mott's. The coffee segment, formed when Keurig Green Mountain acquired Dr. Pepper Snapple in 2018, also grew, but at a lower rate. This business unit includes its own manufactured coffee pods, as well as technology licensing to other manufacturers. In the release accompanying the earnings report, outgoing CEO Bob Gamgort said, "We successfully recovered from supply chain disruptions in coffee and non-carbonated beverages, implemented additional pricing to offset inflation, and continued to accelerate growth across our broad portfolio, leading to another quarter of strong market share performance. We remain confident that our ‘all-weather’ business model will enable us to deliver in the ongoing volatile macro environment." Revenue Ahead Of Wall Street Views Earnings came in at $0.39 per share, up 3% over the year-ago quarter. Revenue was $3.554 billion. A glance at MarketBeat earnings data shows that the company met earnings views, but revenue came in ahead of expectations. Analysts have a “hold” rating on the stock, as analyst data compiled by MarketBeat show. The consensus price target is $40.33, with a potential upside of 11.94%. On September 27, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from “buy” to “neutral,” with a price target of $37, up slightly from where shares were trading Thursday. On its chart, you’ll see that Keurig Dr. Pepper is forming a correction that’s fallen 14%, as of Thursday. The stock’s price performance has essentially tracked that of its index. Keurig Dr. Pepper topped out from a recent rally on August 18, two days after the S&P 500 rolled over from an interim high. As with pretty much all stocks right now, it’s one to track, but use caution until the market re-enters a confirmed rally. Should you invest $1,000 in Under Armour right now? Before you consider Under Armour, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Under Armour wasn't on the list. While Under Armour currently has a "Moderate Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here Article by Kate Stalter, MarketBeat.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk1 hr. 36 min. ago Related News

Dow down 300 points in final hour of trading

Stocks traded near session lows with less than an hour left in Friday's session, leaving the S&P 500 on track to end at another 2022 low as major indexes headed for hefty monthly losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 300 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.7%. The Dow was on track for a monthly loss of 8.3%, while the S&P 500 was off 8.8% and the Nasdaq declined nearly 10%. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch1 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

Stocks end lower Friday, cement biggest 9-month plunge in 20 years

U.S. stocks end sharply lower Friday, closing out a brutal month of September and posting their worst skid in the first 9-months of a year in two decades as higher rates and recession fears grip investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled about 495 points Friday, or 1.7%, ending near 28,730 as heavy selling intensified into the closing bell. The S&P 500 index [s:spx] shed 1.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index finished down 1.5%. Losses for the week and month were far worse. The Dow led the major stock indexes lower with a 2.9% weekly skid, to end September down 8.8%. But the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded bigger monthly losses of 9.3% and 10.5%, respectively, according to FactSet data. The Federal Reserve's unwavering stance in September on raising rates until inflation finds a path down to its 2% target has been blamed for the sharp selloff. The task has been complicated by a roaring labor market and soaring home prices, which keep pressure on shelter costs. Home prices have only begun to show signs of a retreat after gaining 45% nationally during the pandemic, which will keep focus on next week's jobs update for August. For the year so far, the Dow fell 21%, the S&P 500 skid 24.8% and the Nasdaq shed 32.4%, which marked their worst first 9-month fall in a year since 2002, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch1 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

Lockheed Martin hikes dividend 7% as Ukraine war drags on

Lockheed Martin Corp. said late Friday its board approved a 7% hike to the aerospace and defense company's dividend. The company said it will pay a $3-a-share dividend, up from a previous $2.80 a share, on Dec. 30, to shareholders of record as of Dec. 1. Shares of Lockheed Martin are up 8.7% for the year, compared with a 25% decline on the S&P 500 index . Lockheed Martin not only makes the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, but partners with Raytheon Technologies Corp. to make the Javelin anti-tank missile system, both of which have been supplied to Ukraine by the U.S. to defend itself from Russian invasion.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch1 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

Macy"s (M) Stock Moves -1.07%: What You Should Know

Macy's (M) closed at $15.67 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.07% move from the prior day. Macy's (M) closed at $15.67 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.07% move from the prior day. This change was narrower than the S&P 500's 1.51% loss on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 1.71%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 0.02%.Coming into today, shares of the department store operator had lost 7.15% in the past month. In that same time, the Retail-Wholesale sector lost 8.68%, while the S&P 500 lost 9.52%.Macy's will be looking to display strength as it nears its next earnings release. On that day, Macy's is projected to report earnings of $0.18 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 85.37%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $5.17 billion, down 4.92% from the year-ago period.Looking at the full year, our Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $4.13 per share and revenue of $24.46 billion. These totals would mark changes of -22.22% and +0.02%, respectively, from last year.Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for Macy's. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-team stock moves. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant. Macy's is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.Investors should also note Macy's's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 3.84. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 7.24.We can also see that M currently has a PEG ratio of 0.32. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. M's industry had an average PEG ratio of 0.66 as of yesterday's close.The Retail - Regional Department Stores industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, which puts it in the top 39% of all 250+ industries.The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions. This Little-Known Semiconductor Stock Could Be Your Portfolio’s Hedge Against Inflation Everyone uses semiconductors. But only a small number of people know what they are and what they do. If you use a smartphone, computer, microwave, digital camera or refrigerator (and that’s just the tip of the iceberg), you have a need for semiconductors. That’s why their importance can’t be overstated and their disruption in the supply chain has such a global effect. But every cloud has a silver lining. Shockwaves to the international supply chain from the global pandemic have unearthed a tremendous opportunity for investors. And today, Zacks' leading stock strategist is revealing the one semiconductor stock that stands to gain the most in a new FREE report. It's yours at no cost and with no obligation.>>Yes, I Want to Help Protect My Portfolio During the RecessionWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Macy's, Inc. (M): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks2 hr. 37 min. ago Related News

Deep Dive: These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 tumbled between 20% and 30% in September

FedEx, Ford, AMD and Nike were among the worst performers for the month in the benchmark index......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch3 hr. 37 min. ago Related News

Dow Tumbles Over 300 Points; Crude Oil Down 2%

U.S. stocks traded lower toward the end of trading, with the Dow Jones dipping more than 300 points on Friday. The Dow traded down 1.23% to 28,865.85 while the NASDAQ fell 0.92% to 10,638.61. The S&P 500 also fell, dropping, 0.97% to 3,605.32. Also check this: Bitcoin, Ethereum Remain Stable; Here Are The Top Crypto Movers For Friday Leading and Lagging Sectors Real estate shares rose by 1.5% on Friday. In trading on Friday, utilities shares fell by 1.3%. Top Headline Personal income in the US climbed by 0.3% from a month ago in August, while personal spending rose 0.4%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in August following a 0.1% decline in July. Equities Trading UP   F45 Training Holdings Inc. (NYSE: FXLV) shares shot up 43% to $3.1250 after a 13D filing showed the company received a non-binding proposal offer by one or more funds for a value of $4 per share. Shares of SOBR Safe, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOBR) got a boost, shooting 38% to $2.6550 after the company announced it signed three reseller agreements with national distributors. Ainos, Inc. (NASDAQ: AIMD) shares were also up, gaining 36% to $1.8799 after the company reported results from the additional preclinical study of its ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzinga3 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

US stocks fall on inflation data to cap steep losses for September and the 3rd quarter

For the third quarter, the S&P 500 gave up 6%, while the Nasdaq lost nearly 5%, and the Dow sank more than 7%. Spencer Platt/Getty US stocks fell Friday, closing out steep losses for the week, month, and third quarter. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge increased 4.9% in August from a year ago, up from 4.7% in July. For the third quarter, the S&P 500 gave up 6%, while the Nasdaq lost nearly 5%, and the Dow sank more than 7%. US stocks fell Friday as fresh inflation data pointed to more hawkish monetary policy, closing out steep losses for the week, month, and third quarter.The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures price index — increased 4.9% in August from a year ago, up from 4.7% in July and above forecasts. Markets have been selling off as central bankers reinforce their intent to keep policy tight until inflation cools sufficiently, while soaring bond yields have heightened turmoil across global markets, most recently in the UK.For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow lost 3%, and the Nasdaq dipped 0.3%. For the month of September, the S&P 500 and the Dow plunged more than 9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 10%. For the third quarter, the S&P 500 gave up 6%, while the Nasdaq lost nearly 5%, and the Dow sank more than 7%. Here's where US indexes stood as the market closed at 4 p.m. ET on Friday: S&P 500: 3,585.65, down 1.51% Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,725.51, down 1.71% (500.10 points)Nasdaq Composite: 10,575.62, down 1.51% Here's what else is going on today: A Chinese regulator told several investment banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, to avoid publishing politically sensitive research ahead of the Communist Party's National Congress summit next month, according to the Wall Street Journal.Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel dismissed warnings of a "lost decade" in the stock market, predicting annualized returns of 6% net of inflation.Nike stock tumbled as much as 14% after the athletic gear giant reported an inventory spike and warned margins will be squeezed. The pound fell further against the dollar as emergency talks in the UK over new budget and tax cut proposals failed to calm markets.Long-time bull Ed Yardeni warned that aggressive Fed moves to sharply raise interest rates could crush asset prices further and spark a deep recession. In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Oil prices slipped, with West Texas Intermediate down 2% to $79.64 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, inched 0.7% lower to $87.90 a barrel.Gold ticked up 0.1% to $1,670.50 per ounce.The 10-year yield climbed 4.7 basis points to 3.794%.Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $19,712.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider3 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

U.S. stocks finish sharply lower with three indexes booking worst first nine months of a year in two decades

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch3 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

Wall Street Mixed; Dow Drops Over 50 Points

U.S. stocks traded mixed this morning, with the Dow Jones dropping more than 50 points on Friday. Following the market opening Friday, the Dow traded down 0.22% to 29,160.17 while the NASDAQ rose 0.13% to 10,751.20. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.01% to 3,640.75. Also check this: Bitcoin, Ethereum Remain Stable; Here Are The Top Crypto Movers For Friday Leading and Lagging Sectors Real estate shares rose by 0.6% on Friday. In trading on Friday, consumer discretionary shares fell by 0.6%. Top Headline Personal income in the US climbed by 0.3% from a month ago in August, while personal spending rose 0.4%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in August following a 0.1% decline in July. Equities Trading UP   F45 Training Holdings Inc. (NYSE: FXLV) shares shot up 51% to $3.3001 after a 13D filing showed the company received a non-binding proposal offer by one or more funds for a value of $4 per share. Shares of InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: INM) got a boost, shooting 54% to $8.85. InMed recently reported a FY22 net loss of $33.17 per share. Avenue Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATXI) shares were also up, gaining 30% to $9.39. The stock has been volatile after the company last week announced a 1-for-15 reverse split and received meeting minutes from the FDA regarding a ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzinga5 hr. 9 min. ago Related News

Nasdaq Jumps Over 100 Points; Crude Oil Down 1.5%

U.S. stocks traded higher midway through trading, with the Dow Jones gaining more than 100 points on Friday. The Dow traded up 0.36% to 29,330.93 while the NASDAQ rose 1.27% to 10,874.03. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.75% to 3,667.94. Also check this: Bitcoin, Ethereum Remain Stable; Here Are The Top Crypto Movers For Friday Leading and Lagging Sectors Materials shares rose by 1.5% on Friday. In trading on Friday, utilities shares fell by 0.4%. Top Headline Personal income in the US climbed by 0.3% from a month ago in August, while personal spending rose 0.4%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in August following a 0.1% decline in July. Equities Trading UP   F45 Training Holdings Inc. (NYSE: FXLV) shares shot up 41% to $3.0910 after a 13D filing showed the company received a non-binding proposal offer by one or more funds for a value of $4 per share. Shares of SOBR Safe, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOBR) got a boost, shooting 40% to $2.6996 after the company announced it signed three reseller agreements with national distributors. Ainos, Inc. (NASDAQ: AIMD) shares were also up, gaining 53% to $2.1056 after the company reported results from the additional preclinical study of its low-dose oral interferon formulation against Omicron. ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzinga5 hr. 9 min. ago Related News

This Small-Cap Healthcare Name Is Outperforming Its Index

Small-cap health staffing firm Cross Country Healthcare is notching price gains that outpace the broader market The stock has a low number of shares in float, which means it can have wide intraday price swings. In recent months, that volatility has resulted in upside trade The company has topped both sales and earnings expectations in […] Small-cap health staffing firm Cross Country Healthcare is notching price gains that outpace the broader market The stock has a low number of shares in float, which means it can have wide intraday price swings. In recent months, that volatility has resulted in upside trade The company has topped both sales and earnings expectations in every quarter since July 2019 Investors love to learn about companies like Cross Country Healthcare (NASDAQ:CCRN) with a long history of profitability, and revenue growth, and one that’s bucking the market’s downtrend.  The Boca Raton, Florida company provides staffing and outsourcing services for health professionals, including travel nurses and temporary physicians. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Find A Qualified Financial Advisor Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. If you’ve spent any time in hospital settings in the past decade or so, you’ve likely encountered some of these “freelance” professionals. I live in New Mexico, which has a relatively small population compared to other states. My family members and I have been treated by travel physicians and nurses. The level of care is exactly the same as if we’d been treated by a staff doctor or nurse. These professionals provide a service for short-staffed hospitals in various regions of the country.  Cross Country Healthcare trended along with the broad market in Wednesday’s wide heavy-volume rally. The stock, with a market capitalization of $1.1 billion, is tracked by the S&P 600 Small Cap index, as well as the Russell 2000.  Although large-cap indexes had a big day Wednesday, small caps actually outperformed. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) was up 1.96%, while the SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:SPSM) notched a gain of 2.68%.  Outpacing Small-Cap Index Cross Country Healthcare was up 4.03% for the session, its third day in a row of upside trade. You can’t make too much of one upside day for the broader market, as bear-market rallies are common and you can even see some of the biggest gains during a bear.  However, it’s always a good idea to track stocks like  Cross Country that are holding up better than most. The stock is flat relative to where it ended 2021, thanks to a lengthy correction that began in early January. Shares are up 8.40% in the past month and up 36.88% in the past three months. Cross Country tends to have wide intraday price swings, which is not uncommon with a small stock that has few shares in its float. In this case, the float totals just 36.3 million. That volatility can occur because the small number of shares available means buyers and sellers may have a difficult time finding someone at the other end of the trade. The wide swings mean there’s not always agreement on what the price should be.  The stock has a beta of 1.14, meaning it’s slightly more volatile than the broad market. In this case, that’s translated to gains, but volatility can also result in greater share-price declines.  That’s a possible negative about Cross Country. However, there are plenty of positive aspects to offset that drawback. For example, revenue grew between 53% and 127% in the past six quarters, while earnings grew at triple-digit rates for the past eight quarters.  Long History Of Topping Analyst Views MarketBeat earnings data for the stock show that Cross Country topped both earnings and revenue expectations in every quarter since July 2019. That kind of track record bodes well for future earnings and revenue beats. Checking with analyst data compiled by MarketBeat, you’ll find that Wall Street has a “moderate buy” rating on the stock with a price target of $33.75, representing a 16.86% upside.  Cross Country shares have been languishing somewhat below resistance near $30.50, where they got smacked down three times, once on July 21 and again on September 14 and 15. Watch for the stock to gather up the momentum to clear that hurdle, which would be a good sign of more gains to come.  The company is set to grow through acquisition, as indicated by its September 13 announcement that it would acquire the assets of Mint Medical Physician Staffing and Lotus Medical Staffing. Lotus is an independent unit of Mint. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter.  Should you invest $1,000 in Cross Country Healthcare right now? Before you consider Cross Country Healthcare, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Cross Country Healthcare wasn't on the list. While Cross Country Healthcare currently has a "Moderate Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here Article by Kate Stalter, MarketBeat.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk5 hr. 9 min. ago Related News

James Gorman: The Fed’s Got A Ways To Go

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Chairman & CEO James Gorman on CNBC’s “Mad Money” (M-F, 6PM-7PM ET) today, Thursday, September 29. Interview With Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman Part I JIM CRAMER: Ever since James Gorman took over in 2010, Morgan Stanley’s stock is up more […] Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Chairman & CEO James Gorman on CNBC’s “Mad Money” (M-F, 6PM-7PM ET) today, Thursday, September 29. Interview With Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman Part I JIM CRAMER: Ever since James Gorman took over in 2010, Morgan Stanley’s stock is up more than any of the other major banks. More importantly, Gorman knows the industry better than anyone and that’s why I’m so thrilled to speak with James Gorman, the Chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley to get a better sense of this moment. Mr. Gorman, welcome to “Mad Money.” if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   JAMES GORMAN: Hey Jim, great to be here. Thank you. CRAMER: I cannot think of someone I want more on this show than you right now James not because I want hand holding. But I'd like rationality. You lived through bull and bear markets. A lot of people feel this bear market will never end. What's your historical perspective? GORMAN: Well, firstly, I've seen a lot of markets. I think you have to look at what drives the change in sentiment. And to me, I'm just not surprised. What do we expect? We've got a war in the Ukraine. We've got inflation at the highest we've had for 40 years, we've got the Fed moving aggressively on rates having done nothing for 10 years. Rates have been zero. The market is awash with money. What did we expect? So you've had the bubbles that have been out there, the SPACs, the cryptos and so some of them are getting washed out. So it's not totally surprising where we are. That's where I start from. CRAMER: If that's the case then we hear the Fed talking tough, it should talk tough and it should take tough action. GORMAN: Listen, you can't have free money forever. Of course, you you'll end up with an imbalance. I mean, it's all about GDP growth and interest rates and the Fed tries to moderate that about I think half the times that they've tightened in the last 30, 40 years, they've overshot a little bit. But half the times they haven't so we're in we're in that zone and everybody obviously is making the bet whether they've overshooting gonna push us into a serious recession, whether we're going to have a mild recession, whether we're going to have a soft landing, or we're going to get perfection, and that remains to be seen. CRAMER: And what does James think? I like your view. You know more than almost everybody I speak to you. GORMAN: Yeah, well, I think I think it's unlikely that we're gonna have a hard landing at this point. I think the Fed will keep pushing. I mean, we're, we're at a little over 3% now. They'll probably end up at you know, 4.5, 4.75%. Listen, we’re totally in between inflation, unemployment and rates. And my sort of nirvana scenario for now would be 4, 4 and 4. Get inflation back to 4%, bring rates up to 4% and have unemployment which is slightly below four. It'll tick up a little bit. That’s nirvana. We probably won't get that. But I don't I don't think I don't see yet enough to tell me this is a real crisis. Geopolitical issues aside, that could tip things very differently. Obviously, if I'm wrong about the Fed’s ability to tame inflation, that tips things differently. So there, there are reasons to be concerned. Clearly, the market is not stupid. The market reflects that. So we've got to respect the market. But and we've got an inverted yield curve at the moment. So there's a lot going on. But I personally am not seeing the sort of very dark crisis we've seen through my career. CRAMER: Well, that's really important because I’ve studied your career and I recognize that if you felt that it wasn't worth staying the course, you would actually say it. You would say, you know what, Jim? It's actually not a bad idea to sell a lot of stock here. I'm not hearing that. GORMAN: And I'll also tell you, I’ve watched the behavior. We're dealing with 15 million clients through their places of work, through E*TRADE platform, which I'm sure we'll talk about, through our wealth management advisors, we're managing over $4 trillion. And with our asset management business, wealth and asset together, nearly 6 trillion. I'm not seeing panic in there. This is not ’87, it's not even ’91. It's not the dotcom crash, and it's certainly not the financial crisis. That doesn't mean it can't become one of those, but it's not there yet and behavior supports that. CRAMER: Well, we are going to talk about how you have really revolutionized the firm in a way that, you know, I'm, I think you’re the best at but before we get to that, it sounds like to me that if we don't get nirvana, even if we don't get nirvana. We're still not in a situation like a 2007, 2009 where Morgan Stanley was, you know, 11, 10, 9 and I was concerned about the viability of a lot of the firms. That's not going to happen. GORMAN: Well, there are two things that are very, very different from frankly, all those crisis periods I've talked about. The first is the bank's capital and balance sheet. These, the US banks and okay, I'm talking my own book but on behalf of our peers, the G-SIBs, the globally systemic banks are in the best shape financially they've been in in decades as a group, different business model issues, etc. But as a group from a capital liquidity perspective going into a crisis, you want your financial system and you want your call backs, banks to be strong and they are. Secondly, consumers, they refinance a lot of their mortgages. They had the luxury of very low rates for a long time, they saved during Covid, consumers coming into this with their personal balance sheet better. Those two things are very different from some of the other periods we've had the last 20 years. CRAMER: Now, what are you looking for to see that perhaps the Fed might be done? What has to happen? Does unemployment have to go to five? I mean you talk about 4, 4, 4 but when I listened to Loretta Mester today, very important Fed member. I felt like that a lot of the work that we've done toward slowing inflation really didn't mean much then that they're not happy at all with how this economy but wages are too high. Homes are too high. They're not happy with how they are cooling things. GORMAN: Well listen the Fed’s got a ways to go. I mean, we might have another 75. We're about you know, again, a house caller is 75 followed by 50 followed by 50. I felt for a long time the Fed was very late. I said I'd be like a squirrel. I like putting a few nuts away because you never know when you're going to need them. Right so we didn't do that. Covid obviously delayed that, the Ukrainian, Russian Ukrainian war delayed that. There are reasons why the Fed didn't act so I understand it, you know, I accept it. But now they've got to move aggressively. So they're, in my view, going to be less concerned about whether we tip into a mild recession than they are about taming inflation, which if they don't, creates all sorts of havoc. CRAMER: All right, well, what we're doing when we come back, we'll talk about your amazing wealth advisory business, what you're telling people and how you've reinvented the firm, because I can tell you that you're the largest financial wheel in my trust and there's a reason because of your leadership. GORMAN: Thank you. CRAMER: “Mad Money” will be back after the break with James Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley. Part II CRAMER: We’re back with James Gorman. He's the Chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley, the investment bank I like so much that I own it for my charitable trust. Let's get right back to it. James, you have reinvented this firm. I remember the Morgan Stanley that I applied to was kind of, let's say a trade ‘em wamma jamma firm. Your company is now the premiere wealth advisor company in the world. How were you able to do that? GORMAN: Well, what firstly, we had a view. You got to start with a point of view and the view was that a separate trading banking business on its own was much less attractive because of its volatility to investors. So we needed some annuitize fee business. We had it in the old Dean Witter business and a smaller asset management, but they weren't at scale. So the view was is we knew what the answer was, but we had to get to scale. So we bought Smith Barney back in 2009. We bought E*TRADE, we bought Solium, we bought Eaton Vance, we bought Mesa West. All of these were building blocks to get us to scale so it was it was actually very simple concept. Executing it required, you know, we had to we had to make some calls and some people thought we overpaid for some of those assets. I don't think so anymore. CRAMER: But they're these are assets that are sticky. GORMAN: Yeah. CRAMER: And they go up, up, up. The old days, you were what I regard as an episodic firm. Those days are now past. GORMAN: Well, I think it's all about stability. I mean, if you look at the wealth businesses, which generate, you know, roughly $6 billion a quarter for the last couple of years, look at those businesses, they they don't move very much in their daily numbers. I mean, plus or minus 5 million on 100 million, so incredibly stable, sticky, but also stable when you've got them and we love that. But then you've got the investment bank, which is like a turbocharger. When the markets are good, the bank is doing phenomenally. CRAMER: But at the same time, people all lump these together. They say you have investment banking, investment banks doing poorly, so why don't we just sell the stock down? It's not any different from the way it used to be. That's just not a fair characterization. GORMAN: Well, it's honestly just not looking at the numbers. I mean, some people have looked at and said because of the investment banking market and capital markets market at the moment, which is tough, right? Because of that, these stocks are much less attractive. I say, seriously? Take a look at what percentage of the revenues that we're we have that are tied up in those kinds of activities that are depressed right now. By the way, they're delayed, they're not shut down. CRAMER: Right. GORMAN: They're gonna happen, companies will go public, deals will get done. So I'm not concerned about at all. I think, you know, where the stock is trading in this environment obviously I feel very good about what we're doing. CRAMER: Well obviously because you've been buying back more stock than anybody else and you've been returning nice dividend. You've got the best in the group. GORMAN: And we're retiring, we’ll retire, you know, 6, 7% of the stock this year, and we've got a dividend yield of 3.5%. So shareholders are getting a nine plus percent return without getting out of bed. It's not bad, right? So I feel very good about the position. We should bring the share count down. We started after the E*TRADE around 2 billion shares outstanding. And, you know, then you're paying smaller dividends because you're not paying dividends on the shares you retire. CRAMER: Now, there was a time when if you told me that Morgan Stanley was going to own E*TRADE, I said I would say are you kidding me? But it turns out that the wealth is in Solium and E*TRADE, that's where it starts. You are going for the long haul. These are people who if they say well, we'll become the premium wealth clients for the next 20 years. GORMAN: Well and just give a call out to E*TRADE, they just got rated the number one online brokerage business yesterday just which is great. Now listen, we we owned the financial advisor piece. Second leg, we needed to own the direct piece Schwab Ameritrade phenomenal companies Fidelity we needed to be in there we could build it or we could buy it. We bought a E*TRADE. Third leg, we want to own or at least be one of the top two competitors in the workplace with Fidelity and through Solium and E*TRADE. We’ve got that so we're now managing something like 30, 35% of S&P stock plans in this country. So if you've got all three legs, you're getting people through advisors, you're getting them through trading online, and you're getting them through their workplace, you can provide incredible capability to them because you're amortizing it across a huge, fixed costs based on revenues. CRAMER: Now, you're not getting away entirely from risk. We know it's difficult. I know you can't talk about any individual clients but you've got a big one, Elon Musk, and he may end up owning Twitter. And you could be on the hook for that. Is that true or not? GORMAN: Well, I think you said it. I can't talk about it, Jim. CRAMER: But we don't want you on the hook. The shareholder doesn’t want you on the hook. GORMAN: Do I look distressed right now. CRAMER: No. GORMAN: Okay, that's all I’ll say. We'll see how this plays out. CRAMER: Well, I like, I like that attitude. Now if you were with your wealthiest clients, what do you say that's different from the clients who aren't that wealthy, who want to be wealthy. GORMAN: Well, the clients who aren’t wealthy should you know what I've been worried about the last few years is the number of people who have been speculating in crypto, but, you know, it's fine if you bought it at 600 and it’s and it’s at 20— CRAMER: But do you believe in it? GORMAN: People are buying, listen, I think it's it's an asset. It's a speculative asset by definition. I don't think it's a new form of stored value. I think it's subject to a lot of regulatory risk— CRAMER: Do you own any? GORMAN: No, I don't own any. I wish I bought it at $60— CRAMER: Of course we all do. GORMAN: But I didn't buy it at 60,000 so what I've been worried about and what I've seen a lot of individual investors is that they got caught up in the hype. We've seen this before, the .com. We saw this in the early 90s and you know, ‘87 with a Black Monday crash and so on. So my worry for that group is listen, your job is not to speculate. It's to build long term wealth for stability. The very wealthy person completely different. They can put 1% of their money on anything. They can put on resources, put on crypto, put it on whatever they like, that's fine, that's no risk because they can afford to lose that. So completely different focus. CRAMER: How about the young, we have a lot of young watchers 25, 30. Isn't this a time to start? The market is so nowhere near its top. GORMAN: You know, Australia has a scheme called the superannuation scheme where government mandated, you save 15% of your income. Right and it's created these huge sovereign wealth fund asset pools in Australia. If there's one thing I could tell every 22-year-old person starting a job, maybe they can't save 15%, but save five and the compounding impact of putting money into the market, maybe start with an index just get in the market. It's all about duration. You're in the market for 50 years, it's better than 30, it's a whole lot better than 10. CRAMER: One last question. James Gorman is a little bit close to me in age. Can you stay longer? How much longer do you want to stay? GORMAN: Well, I I truly believe in in succession planning and I've been very clear with the board. But you know, these organizations do best when you regenerate and provide growth and part of that is giving opportunities to people. So we've got a plan. I won't give you the date right now. But no, I'll step down at the right moment. CRAMER: Alright fair enough. GORMAN: But I will step down and we’ve got a great team to follow me. CRAMER: Well, I'm sure you do— GORMAN: But it’s not today. CRAMER: But you've done the best in the group. And it's, I know you have great team, but I'm looking at the top of it. GORMAN: Thank you. Thanks man. CRAMER: Okay. That's James Gorman, Chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley. Thank you so much, James. GORMAN: Thank you. CRAMER: Good to talk to you. "Mad Money" is after the break......»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk5 hr. 9 min. ago Related News

Previewing Q3 Earnings Season After Rough Reports from Nike and Micron

We are starting to look at these early reports from FedEx, Nike, Micron and others for their fiscal periods ending in August as giving us a preview of what likely lies ahead as the banks kick-off the Q3 reporting cycle in about two weeks We had been skeptical about extrapolating too much from FedEx’s FDX downbeat quarterly numbers as we see a big part of the problems as FedEx specific. But FedEx is hardly alone in pointing towards a cloudier horizon.We don’t typically associate Nike NKE with management and operational missteps, but we just heard them tell us about a large inventory overhang that’s having negative implications for margins and profitability. Part of the +44% jump in Nike’s inventory is reportedly related to apparel whose movement through the company’s supply chain was impacted by ongoing logistical challenges.We don’t know the details, but it’s fair to assume that some part of the inventory buildup is related to softening demand. After all, the U.S. Fed’s ongoing tightening cycle is directed at crimping aggregate demand as a way to bring down inflationary pressures.Nike’s inventory problem validates what we heard from retailers in the Q2 reporting cycle. Chipmaker Micron MU is faced with a comparable issue that forced it to cut guidance and slash CapEx to bring chip supplies in alignment with market demand that has come down as a result of weakening PC, tablet and smartphone sales.We are starting to look at these early reports from FedEx, Nike, Micron and others for their fiscal periods ending in August as giving us a preview of what likely lies ahead as the banks kick-off the Q3 reporting cycle in about two weeks. For the record, we and other data vendors count these early reports as part of the Q3 earnings season.Through Friday, September 30th, we have seen a total of 15 S&P 500 members report results in recent days, including the aforementioned companies. We have another 4 index members on deck to report results this week, including Conagra CAG and Constellation Brands STZ.Total earnings for these 15 S&P 500 companies that have reported results are down -8.3% from the same period last year on +10.5% higher revenues, with 66.7% beating EPS estimates and 53.3% beating revenue estimates.Here is how the 2022 Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates for these 15 companies compares across different periods.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHere is how the 2022 Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages for these 15 companies compare across different periods.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWe are trying hard not to draw any conclusions here given how small the sample size of Q3 results are at this stage. But it’s hard to put a gloss on the fact that these 15 index members, some of whom are true bellwethers, struggled to beat consensus estimates.In fact, you can see above that the 2022 Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages are tracking the 5-year lows for this group of companies. Needless to add, it is hardly a reassuring start to the Q3 reporting cycle.The Earnings Big PictureTo get a sense of what is currently expected, take a look at the chart below that shows current earnings and revenue growth expectations for the S&P 500 index for 2022 Q3 and the following three quarters.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAs you can see here, 2022 Q3 earnings are expected to be up +0.9% on +9.1% higher revenues.Don’t forget that it is the strong contribution from the Energy sector that is keeping the aggregate Q3 earnings growth in positive territory. Excluding the Energy sector, Q3 earnings for the rest of the S&P 500 index would be down -5.8% from the same period last year.Analysts have been lowering their estimates since the quarter got underway, as the chart below shows.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe -5.8% decline expected in Q3 on an ex-Energy basis is down from +2.1% in early July.Third quarter estimates have come down for all sectors, except Energy and Autos, with the biggest declines within Consumer Discretionary, Basic Materials, Consumer Staples, Technology, and Construction.In the aggregate, 2022 Q3 earnings estimates for the S&P 500 index have been cut -6.5% since mid-June. If we look at the revisions trend after excluding the Energy sector where estimates are still going up, aggregate Q3 estimates have declined by -8.5% since mid-June.Estimates for 2022 Q4 and full-year 2024 have also been coming down.These aren’t modest cuts to estimates, but rather towards the higher end of the historical range. The key takeaway here is that estimates have already been coming down. Yes, there may be some more cuts ahead, as we can reasonably expect will happen with estimates for Nike and Micron in the days ahead.But to suggest that earnings estimates have to massively come down to reach a ‘fair’ level would imply that we are projecting a global financial crisis type of economic event on the horizon, which is hard to justify given current economic fundamentals. We should also keep in mind that corporate earnings and revenues are in ‘nominal’ (or not adjusted for inflation) dollars and will largely keep pace with inflationary trends.The chart below shows the comparable picture on an annual basis.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe +6.8% earnings growth expected for the index this year drops to +0.3% once the Energy sector’s contribution is excluded.The chart below shows how the aggregate bottom-up earnings total for 2023 on an ex-Energy basis has evolved lately.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor a detailed look at the overall earnings picture, including expectations for the coming periods, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report >>>>Are Earnings Estimates Out of Sync with the Economy?  This Little-Known Semiconductor Stock Could Be Your Portfolio’s Hedge Against Inflation Everyone uses semiconductors. But only a small number of people know what they are and what they do. If you use a smartphone, computer, microwave, digital camera or refrigerator (and that’s just the tip of the iceberg), you have a need for semiconductors. That’s why their importance can’t be overstated and their disruption in the supply chain has such a global effect. But every cloud has a silver lining. Shockwaves to the international supply chain from the global pandemic have unearthed a tremendous opportunity for investors. And today, Zacks' leading stock strategist is revealing the one semiconductor stock that stands to gain the most in a new FREE report. It's yours at no cost and with no obligation.>>Yes, I Want to Help Protect My Portfolio During the RecessionWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report Micron Technology, Inc. (MU): Free Stock Analysis Report Conagra Brands (CAG): Free Stock Analysis Report FedEx Corporation (FDX): Free Stock Analysis Report Constellation Brands Inc (STZ): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks5 hr. 37 min. ago Related News

More Data Shows Core Inflation Resisting Fed Hikes

With the Federal Reserve showing no signs of letting up in its ongoing crusade of interest rate hikes, the latest data on inflation is offering no suggestion of immediate relief, with personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation—the Fed’s preferred measurement—actually ticking up. Stocks opened mostly flat on Friday as the PCE report showed its index of… The post More Data Shows Core Inflation Resisting Fed Hikes appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismedia5 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

5 Winning Global ETFs of First Nine Months of 2022

These global fared better than the broader market indexes in the first nine months of 2022. Global markets have been into a tailspin this year on red-hot inflation and rising rate worries. The Fed has hiked interest rates this year by 300 bps so far. The European Central Bank (ECB) too embarked on the rate hike mode. The ECB has raised interest rates by 125 so far this year (read: ECB Hikes Rates: ETFs to Win/Lose).The Bank of England hiked its key interest rate to 2.25% from 1.75% on Thursday and said it would continue to "respond forcefully, as necessary" to tame inflation, despite the economic concerns.The Central Bank of Sweden announced a 100 basis points hike in interest rates last week saying that the inflation was too stubborn. Despite the 100-bps hike, the Riksbank is still behind its inflation target by 0.25%, which indicates further rate hikes. The Swiss central bank also hiked rates by 75 basis points to 0.5% Thursday. The move brought an end to an era of negative rates in Europe.The S&P 500 is down about 22% this year (as of Sep 23, 2022) while iShares MSCI ACWI ETF ACWI has added about 23.9% this year. Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few global equities ETFs that outdid the S&P 500 this year.ETFs in FocusWBI BullBear Yield 3000 ETF WBIG – Down 5.79% YTDThe WBI BullBear Yield 3000 ETF seeks long-term capital appreciation and the potential for current income, while also seeking to protect principal during unfavorable market conditions. This active cash-hedged all-cap ETF focused on value stocks with attractive dividend yields. The fund holds 60.9% of stock and 39.1% of cash. The expense ratio of WBIG is 1.25% while it yields 2.42% annually.WBI BullBear Yield 3000 ETF (WBIF) – Down 7.76% YTDWBIF is an active ETF focused on global small-, mid- and large-cap value stocks that pay dividends. The fund seeks to manage risk to capital while providing attractive returns and long-term growth of capital. The rigorous stock selection process targets the highest quality value stocks. The expense ratio of WBIG is 1.25% and it yields 1.52% annually.Alpha Architect Value Momentum Trend ETF VMOT – Down 9.6% YTDThe Alpha Architect Value Momentum Trend ETF seeks long term capital appreciation while attempting to minimize market drawdowns. The strategy seeks to invest in the cheapest, highest quality value stocks that have the highest quality momentum too. The strategy’s trend-following system looks to minimize large drawdowns via trend signals. The fund charges 83 bps in fees.Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF INFL – Down 10.7% YTDThe Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF is an actively managed ETF that seeks long-term growth of capital in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. It seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing primarily in domestic and foreign equity securities of companies that are expected to benefit, either directly or indirectly, from rising prices of real assets, such as those whose revenues are expected to increase with inflation without corresponding increases in expenses. The fund charges 85 bps in fees.IQ Hedge Macro Tracker ETF MCRO – Down 11.3% YTDThe underlying IQ Hedge Macro Index seeks to replicate the risk-adjusted return characteristics of a combination of hedge funds pursuing a macro strategy and hedge funds pursuing an emerging markets strategy. The fund charges 67 bps in fees. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI): ETF Research Reports Alpha Architect Value Momentum Trend ETF (VMOT): ETF Research Reports WBI BullBear Yield 3000 ETF (WBIG): ETF Research Reports IQ Hedge Macro Tracker ETF (MCRO): ETF Research Reports Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks5 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

Are Stocks Gearing Up For A Big Q4 Rally?

A strong labor market is just one of several positives that investors are ignoring right now. But Kevin Matras can look behind the headlines and help you take full advantage of an improved fourth quarter and beyond. It’s been a rough year so far.40-year high inflation, which forced the Fed to aggressively raise rates in an effort to bring it down, has been weighing on stocks.As tough as this year has been, I’m reminded of the comparison that was made between the first half of this year, and the first half of 1970.This year’s first half performance (the S&P was down nearly -21%), was strikingly similar to that of 1970 (also down -21%). And in both periods, high inflation was an issue.But in the second half of 1970, the S&P was up 27%.Of course, that doesn’t mean that’s how it’ll go for the back half of this year. But it doesn’t mean it won’t either.Granted, the last few months haven’t been any easier. And there’s only 3 months left of this year. But with plenty of economic positives backstopping the economy right now, not the least of which is a strong labor market, there’s definitely a chance that the market is being too pessimistic.While we unofficially saw a recession after Q2 GDP fell by -0.6%, which followed Q1’s -1.6% (two quarters in a row of negative GDP is the technical definition of a recession), consumer demand remained strong throughout. So did corporate earnings. And the jobs market stayed sizzling hot.You can also see that in the GDI numbers (Gross Domestic Income), which measures U.S. economic activity via the income earned for these activities. Usually, the GDI and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) are statistically very similar. But unlike the GDP, the GDI was up in the first half of the year with a positive 0.5% annualized growth rate, while GDP was down.Will these two measures converge? If so, will GDP rise to meet GDI, or will GDI fall to meet GDP? Or maybe a little bit of both? TBD. But, at the moment, GDP forecasts are pointing to plus signs for the rest of the year.Q3 GDP is only expected to eke out a 0.3% gain. But Q4 is expected to be better, with full year estimates showing another year of growth. (It’s no longer a recession when the economy starts growing again.)And the Fed is predicting 2023 to be even better still with a 1.8% GDP growth rate.So there’s plenty of positives in the market right now. (The market happens to be ignoring them at the moment. But they are there nonetheless.)And with the market seemingly pricing in the worst-case scenario (deep and long recession), stocks are primed to rally once it looks like the worst-case scenario won’t come to pass (shallower and shorter recession). Peak Inflation Is Behind Us  One of the key factors which will likely determine where the market goes from here, will be inflation, and therefore, interest rates.Even though inflation is still too high, it has been ticking down for the last few months.Headline inflation, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is at 8.3% y/y, with core inflation (less food & energy) at 6.3%. That’s down from its peak of 9.1% and 6.5%.While that dip is not a lot, and it’s a far cry from the Fed’s goal of getting it back down to 2%, the mere fact that it’s no longer making new highs, and instead is ticking lower, is a step in the right direction.(Oil prices, for example, have fallen sharply. After trading over $130 a barrel, crude oil is now trading at $82. That’s a decline of -37% in a matter of months. And that’s helping to ease inflation concerns.)A few months ago, many were expecting inflation to soar above 10% or more. Now, expectations are for it falling to 5-6% next year, with the core rate falling even lower.And that means the Fed may not have to raise rates as much as people are fearing.Are Stocks Undervalued? Let’s also not forget that valuations are down.The P/E ratio for the S&P is at multiyear lows, and is trading below its five-year average.And that makes stocks a bargain.Of course, if earnings drift lower, valuations will creep up. But there’s plenty of room for stocks to remain relatively cheap.And the earnings outlook is still forecasting growth.Add in another trillion dollars in stimulus between the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, and that should extend the growth outlook even further.More . . .------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Alert: Buy These Ultimate Four Stocks There's still time to get in early. These aren't just 4 promising stocks. They were handpicked from hundreds of strong companies by Zacks' experts because they present the greatest upside for Q4:Stock #1: Little-known but highly influential tech stock with clients like Apple and Nvidia.Stock #2: Cutting-edge streaming company ready to break out. EPS estimates are up 25% in 30 days.Stock #3: An under-the-radar alternative energy company with estimates up to 70% in topline growth.Stock #4: Chemical company poised to become the dominant supplier of materials for EV batteries.Deadline to download our just-released Ultimate Four Special Report is Sunday, October 2.See Our “Ultimate” Stocks Now >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------How Do Stocks Perform Around Midterms? Many are familiar with the Presidential Cycle and the markets. But many may not know that the Presidential Cycle covers all for years of a presidency.Of particular interest is the midterm portion of the cycle, which is where we are right now.And historically, it’s amazing to see how favorable this cycle is for investors at this point in time.Developed by Yale Hirsch, of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the theory suggests that the stock market follows a pattern which correlates with a U.S. president’s four-year term. The election cycle consists of the post-election, midterm, pre-election, and election years. 2022 is an example of a midterm year, i.e., the second year in the 4-year presidential cycle.In the first two years after an election, the second year tends to be the weakest. In fact, it’s the weakest of all four years. Congressional elections take place – and with them, they bring the potential to shift the political backdrop.Hirsch discovered that wars, recessions, and bear markets (sound familiar?) tend to start in the first two years of a president’s term. This year, the market entered the weak spot of the cycle. And with an aggressive Fed, high inflation, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the weakness in stocks was amplified.Those who know their market history will find it somewhat unsurprising that the start to this year was rough. The second and third quarters of midterm years are historically quite weak. (History repeating itself once again.)But more prosperous times typically lie ahead in the latter half of the cycle.In fact, we’re entering the most bullish part of the calendar -- Q4 of year 2 in the 4-year presidential cycle (the second-strongest quarter of all 16 quarters), sporting an average return of 6.6% (since 1950); and Q1 of year 3 (the strongest quarter of all 16 quarters), with a 7.4% average gain.And when we factor in that the third year of the presidential cycle has historically witnessed the best performance of all four years, the outlook for stocks looks even brighter.Now Is The Time To Start Building Your Dream Portfolio  With stocks near their lows, now is the time to start building your dream portfolio.As legendary investor Warren Buffett once said, “be greedy when others are fearful.”And there’s plenty of fear in the market right now.But it should also be known that a large part of any market recovery typically comes at the very beginning.Whether that’s now, next week, or next month, etc., we’re definitely much closer to the bottom than we were just a few short weeks or months ago.To increase your odds of getting in at the bottom, you should always be scanning for new stocks to get into.True, when the market is falling, and economic conditions weaken, there will be fewer stocks coming through your screens. That’s just the way it is.But there will always be great stocks coming through. And savvy investors who diligently stay engaged in the market, even when times are tougher, will find those gems when others have given up.And since you are doing this regularly, you won’t miss out when the market turns around. Of course, they won’t all be winners. You may get into a new stock that goes down. But that’s OK. If you keep your losses small, you won’t do any damage to your portfolio.But you will inevitably find yourself in some spectacular picks at precisely the right time.And if you don’t think there’s money to be made during tough times like these, just know that YTD, even though the major indexes are all down, there are 689 stocks that are by 10% or more; 495 that are up by 20% or more; 213 up by 50% or more, and 85 that are up by 100% or more.Increasing Your Odds Of Success  Of course, picking winning stocks does require a degree of skill.If you keep looking at the wrong things to pick stocks with, you’ll rarely if ever get into the winners.But picking winning stocks is easier than you think.For example, did you know that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy have beaten the market in 28 of the last 34 years with an average annual return of 25% per year? That's more than 2 x the S&P with an annual win ratio of more than 82%.That includes 3 bear markets and 4 recessions.And did you know that stocks in the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperform those in the bottom 50% by a factor of 2 to 1? There's a reason why they say that half of a stock's price movement can be attributed to the group that it's in. Because it's true!Those two things will give any investor a huge probability of success and put you well on your way to beating the market.But you still have to narrow that list down to the handful of stocks you can buy at any one time.And that’s where the professional expertise of our editors comes in.One of the best ways to begin picking better stocks is to see what the pros are doing – the pros who use these methods to select the best stocks to buy.Whether you’re a growth investor, or a value investor, prefer fast-paced momentum stocks, or mature dividend-paying income stocks, there are certain rules the experts follow to maximize their gains.This applies to large-caps and small-caps, biotech and high-tech, ETFs, stocks under $10, stocks about to surprise, even options, and everything in between.Regardless of which one fits your personal style of trade, just be sure you’re following proven profitable methods that work, from experts who have demonstrated their ability to beat the market.The best part about these strategies is that all of the hard work is done for you. There’s no guesswork involved. Just follow the experts and start getting into better stocks on your very next trade.The Easiest, Fastest Way to Get Started  Download our just-released Ultimate Four Special Report. It's simple. Gain access to all our recommended stocks for the next 30 days. Take part in the experience we call Zacks Ultimate.Total cost? Only $1. I'm not kidding.And there's not a cent of further obligation.Get started now and you'll receive our just-released Ultimate Four Special Report.It names and explains 4 stocks with strong fundamentals that are hand-picked by our experts to have the biggest upsides for Q4. And despite inflation there couldn’t be a better time to get aboard. Stocks are substantially undervalued, but the U.S. economy is much better than most people realize, with strong consumer demand, robust job market and solid corporate earnings.In particular, these 4 stocks are riding trends that could prove very lucrative for investors...Stock #1: It’s one of the world’s most influential tech stocks, but most investors have never heard of it. Revenue jumped 44% thanks to extreme demand for its products from other tech companies like Apple.Stock #2: This cutting-edge entertainment company is ready to break out. Shares are already climbing after a pullback earlier in the year, and with EPS estimates up 25% in the last 30 days, big gains are on the horizon.Stock #3: An under-the-radar alternative energy company is poised to leap into the headlines. Analysts are calling for a massive 70% in topline growth – and government stimulus could push revenues even higher.Stock #4: The surging electric vehicle industry will give this chemical company a major boost. With operations on 5 continents, it could become a dominant supplier of materials for a new generation of EV batteries.Don’t miss this chance to get in early on our latest Ultimate Four. We’re limiting the number of people who share that Special Report. There’s a hard deadline - the opportunity to download it ends midnight Monday, October 2nd.Start Zacks Ultimate and see our Ultimate Four stocks now >> Thanks and good trading,KevinKevin Matras serves as Executive Vice President of Zacks.com and is responsible for all of its leading products for individual investors. He invites you to download Zacks’ newly released Ultimate Four Special Report. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks5 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

Friday links: a complex reality

MarketsNo matter how you measure it, 2022 is one of the worst years for bonds in history. (nytimes.com)Year-to-date, the Renaissance IPO ETF is down almost 50%. (institutionalinvestor.com)Options trading is booming. (wsj.com)StrategyOn the dangers of buying crashing growth stocks. (theirrelevantinvestor.com)A proper asset allocation is a precondition to avoid market-related panic. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com)Joe Wiggins, "Financial markets are about the decisions made by other people." (behaviouralinvestment.com)Venture capitalWhat's the relationship between gambling and (venture) investing? (medium.com)In Silicon Valley, investing in your friend's startup is the currency of the realm. (bloomberg.com)Chamath Palihapitiya is raising outside capital. (axios.com)Fund managementWhy investors should consider carving out their China exposure. (linkedin.com)ESG's growth bias has hurt returns in 2022. (morningstar.com)EconomyThe August PCE price index increased 6.2% year-over-year. (calculatedriskblog.com)The U.S. rental housing market is rapidly cooling off. (realpage.com)Companies are still hiring even though there are signs of economic weakness. (wsj.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsPodcast links: boosting downloads. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Thursday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Longform links: trusting your instincts. (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaHow Netflix ($NFLX) is cutting content costs. (variety.com)Add Genesis to the list of bands selling their song catalog to investors. (wsj.com)The Spotify ($SPOT) app is getting unwieldy. (theverge.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturns5 hr. 53 min. ago Related News

Nomura: When Does The Fed "Blink"?

Nomura: When Does The Fed "Blink"? The velocity of “things breaking” around the world (Yen, Yuan, Euro, Sterling, SONIA, Gilts, MBS, Lev Loan deals, the entirety of the UK LDI / Pension complex) is obviously a “neon swan” telling us that we are clearly now in the “market accident” stage from the tightening surge. And, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes, let’s be fair…all of these things are happening for completely rational reasons, particularly for the USD vs lack of viable global alternatives, as the US economy remains the “cleanest dirty shirt” by-far, while rest of world is running increasingly “incongruent” monetary vs fiscal policy on structural issues. Again, looking at the below generic UK / Europe type set-up, McElligott points out a laundry-list of messy inputs (h/t Jordan Rochester): Collapsing terms of trade / trade-deficits largely due to energy imports Manu / Industrial growth slowing due to high energy / input costs “Hiking into recession” with slower consumer being negatively impact by broad inflation (energy bills, food costs) AND shock-resets on mortgage rates "Demand CONSTRUCTION" policies which feed actually FEED consumption and inflation (energy caps, subsidies, fiscal stim / tax cuts) And again, all while those central banks are trying to “rage tighten” monetary policy with hot inflation - but against collapsing currencies thanks to the “USD Wrecking Ball”. And so, authorities are starting to agitate against growing market and economic calamity being caused by the impulse tightening of FCI and the USD Wrecking Ball - which is making the “macro trend trades” which have dictated all thematic performance in 2022 now increasingly open to reversal. So what will make the Fed "blink"? The Nomura strategist writes that, outside of trying to project outrageously unpredictable Inflation data, there are two scenarios: Job losses / Negative NFPs - currently, labor mkt tightness and wage growth at all-time highs gives Fed room to hit the economy HARDER, bc a hot jobs mkt gives you room to crunch it—so the Fed will keep hiking into postive NFP prints; but my view has continued to be that the first time you print a negative NFP, the market will immediately interpret it as a counter-intuitive “constructive” signal for Equities, because this allows for a Fed pivot back towards “dual mandate” (from current solo focus on inflation) which means they can “move the goalposts” - ESPECIALLY as “job losses” then becomes a political feature / issue Credit Market “freeze,” as Corp access to Capital Markets dries-up (note: this is NOT necessarily then about some absolute Spread level of say HY)—if FCI tightening and / or market Vol hits such an extent that BBBs can’t do debt deals…then the Fed will make a move; watching Lev Loans- and / or CLO- markets as most reasonable spots for an “issue” due to floating-rate nature of the products. Are we starting to see any signs of this anticipation of a Fed Pivot? Turning to tactical Equities / Vol - yesterday was the first day in four where we saw some normalization in the recent blast of Vol / Skew / Crash outperformance vs Spot Index,despite the seemingly big “down day”—with a resumption of fairly aggressive “monetization of downside” flows in Equities index / ETF options. And this segues nicely into today’s quarterly rebalance of the large client SPX Put Spread Collar, which tends to exhibit tremendous market impact on hype alone…but for many of the past year and a half’s rebal cycles, has indeed marked local market inflection points. Per the desk Put Spread Collar update: “The SPX Sept 30th 3020/3580/4005 Put Spread Collar (cust long the Sep 30th PM 3580/3020 Put Spreads vs. short the Sep 30th PM 4005 Calls) is expected to be rolled at some point today. The gamma on the SPX Sep 30th PM 3580 Put was ~$2.3B as of last night’s close, so dealers/market makers are broadly welcoming this morning’s de minimis move in futures. Based on last night’s closing level, the expectation is that the investor will roll into something like a a new SPX Dec 30th 2910/3460/3800 Put Spread Collar ~46,000x, which will create ~$16.8M of vega supply in that Dec 30th bucket (along with a fair amount of downside skew via that Dec 30th 2910 Put). The structure has ~$7B of net delta to sell as it currently stands on the MOC, though in the past we have seen this structure trade with a 1-day option (would sell a Sep 30th ITM call for example) so that the delta impact comes on the close as opposed to intra-day” McElligott's point is that with the recent “bid” to Vol / Skew that it is looking “rich” again (as an entry point then for it to fade from) - and yes, with a likelihood that the end of day Equities MOC imbalance could be a disasterously huge “$7B FOR SALE” print that frightens the mkt….i actually kinda think it sets up for a potential relief trade thereafter next week or even into / around Oct Op-Ex, because Dealers are getting a BUNCH of Vega and Gamma back, as well as picking up some big downside Skew…IF WE CAN AVOID A MELTDOWN TO THE 3580 STRIKE FIRST. I think all of this sets-up for a short-term tactical dynamic where Equities implied Vol could come off the recent squeeze higher and begin fading again next week, which then along with the reduced “Short Gamma” dynamic, but against so much “Negative $Delta”…could allow for Equities “relief” as iVol softens further with Dealers in a much “cleaner” place from an Options market perspective. Interestingly, the team at SpotGamma note a similar tactical dynamic as today's put expiration is enough to give equities a bump, and that could lead to a rapid decline in implied volatility. So, we have puts deltas coming off due to expiration, but also vanna. Shown below is the VIX which has hit recent highs – but note too the movement of the TDEX “Tail Risk” index. There was a sharp move in this metric over the last week which tells us that traders were buying deep out of the money puts. On a rally this stuff could get smoked, and could help generate a ~5% equity rally rather quickly. But SpotGamma warns, the macro risks in this environment are massive, an its the perfect environment for something to snap and lead to limit down style moves. This is why we favor playing rallies in call positions with fixed risk. Second, this view of a rally is based on positional analysis, nothing fundamental. Because we are in a put-heavy environment with high volatility rallies should be treated as very unstable and subject to rapid reversal. Think CPI crash, or even yesterdays reversal from 3940 Wed closing to 3910 Thursday lows. Those were 3-5% rallies which retraced in hours. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/30/2022 - 14:15.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge5 hr. 53 min. ago Related News