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Earnings Matter, But So Does Employment

In comments on the market, Daniel Berkowitz, investment director for investment manager Prudent Management Associates wrote: Earnings Matter A Fed-bounce and strong earnings from Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) have provided another day of gains for equity investors. The rise in stock prices is certainly welcome as we turn the page from an abysmal year in […] In comments on the market, Daniel Berkowitz, investment director for investment manager Prudent Management Associates wrote: Earnings Matter A Fed-bounce and strong earnings from Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) have provided another day of gains for equity investors. The rise in stock prices is certainly welcome as we turn the page from an abysmal year in 2022. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   With that said, we aren’t surprised that markets are brushing off Fed guidance regarding the future path of interest rates - the markets haven’t been buying what the Fed is selling for some time now. The rally in asset prices, in particular for those that were punished last year (like growth stocks and cryptocurrencies), generally reflects expectations that the Fed will have to cut rates throughout 2023 in response to economic slowdown. While this certainly isn’t an unreasonable outcome, we view it as a less likely scenario than the Fed sticking to its word and holding rates steady for the remainder of this year after reaching the desired terminal rate. Chairman Powell has noted that entrenched inflation is the worse of two evils when weighing inflation relative to a potentially steeper recession. At least part of today’s positive reaction is also related to the fact that Powell didn’t push back as forcefully as he could have (and has before) about the divergence in Fed-market expectations and the recent loosening of financial conditions. Employment-Cost Index Remains Stubbornly High From our perspective, already seemingly forgotten by the market is Tuesday’s employment-cost index reading, which remained stubbornly high at 5.1% year-over-year. Though the data showed movement in the right direction, current levels of wage growth are still running a few percentage points too hot to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% mandate.   The unemployment data released today showing a further decline in claims only further highlights the labor market’s current strength. The Fed is increasingly watching the labor market for signs of protracted inflation. Strong wage growth fuels inflation in that it’s often passed through as a cost via higher prices for consumers in addition to further buttressing consumer spending. And since the “transitory” pivot, the Fed has been explicit in that it will seek to avoid any echo of the 1970s wage-price spiral at all costs. Therefore, when Chairman Powell says the Fed has “more work to do”, we are not at this point in time as inclined, as the wider market appears to be, to dismiss his word. About Prudent Management Associates Prudent’s core investment philosophy focuses on minimizing risk over time. As a result, the company does not react to market events, but rather considers them in a larger context to develop a long-term outlook for the development and maintenance of investment portfolios......»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk5 hr. 22 min. ago Related News

US stocks drop but end the week with strong gains after latest Fed move and mega-cap earnings

With about half of S&P 500 companies having reported fourth-quarter earnings, 70% of those companies beat profit estimates by a median of 6%. Traders work on the floor at the opening bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on March 18, 2020 in New York.Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty ImagesUS stocks fell on Friday but finished the week higher after a slew of market-moving news.The Fed hiked interest rates, mega-cap tech reported earnings, and the January jobs report surprised to the upside.The US economy added 517,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%.US stocks fell on Friday but finished the week higher after a slew of market-shaking news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gaining about 2% and 3%, respectively. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and acknowledged that central bank policymakers are making progress in taming inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled to investors that future rate hikes are still on the table.On Thursday, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon reported earnings results that mostly missed analyst estimates. They also offered mixed guidance. Alphabet and Amazon fell in Friday trades, while Apple gained about 3%. Finally, on Friday the January jobs report showed the US economy added 517,000 jobs in January, more than double the estimate of 188,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, representing the lowest level in 54 years. About half of S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter earnings. Of those companies, 70% are beating profit estimates by a median of 6%. Meanwhile, 62% of those companies are beating revenue estimates by a median of 4%, according to Fundstrat.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. ET close on Friday:S&P 500: 4,136.44, down 1.04%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 33,925.58, down 0.38% (128.36 points)Nasdaq Composite: 12,006.96, down 1.59%Here's what else happened today:Nordstrom soared more than 30% on Friday after a report said activist investor Ryan Cohen is building a stake in the retailer. Cohen is known for his involvement in meme-stock GameStop.The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell back near 6% in an encouraging sign for potential home buyers who were previously priced out of the market. The US Justice Department is reportedly investigating Silvergate Capital's ties with FTX and Alameda Research.Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the US economy could come to a "sudden stop" despite the strong January jobs report.Logan Paul has been named as a defendant in a lawsuit that alleges the YouTube star helped perpetrate a crypto "rug pull" scam by promoting an NFT-based project that scooped up buyers' money.In commodities, bonds and crypto:West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 3.36% to $73.33 per barrel. Brent crude, oil's international benchmark, dropped 2.82% to $79.85.Gold fell 2.69% to $1,878.80 per ounce.The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 10 basis points to 3.50%.Bitcoin fell 0.74% to $23,343, while ether rose 0.76% to $1,653. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider6 hr. 34 min. ago Related News

Growth stocks lag heading toward closing bell Friday

Value stocks are faring better than growth equities in Friday's slump, in a choppy trading session following a stronger-than-forecast jobs report and a jump in Treasury yields. The Russell 1000 Value index was off 0.9% in late afternoon trading, while the Russell 1000 Growth index dropped 1.4%, according to FactSet data, at last check. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note increased 13.5 basis points to 3.531% Friday, its biggest daily rise since Oct. 5 based on 3 p.m. Eastern time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. U.S. stocks were down heading toward the closing bell Friday, with losses led by the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.7%, FactSet show, at last check.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch7 hr. 22 min. ago Related News

U.S. stocks finish lower, but Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 book consecutive weekly advance

U.S. stock indexes finished lower on Friday after an unexpectedly strong surge in January nonfarm payrolls reversed the Wall Street's perception that the end of the Fed's rate increases is near. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 128 points, or 0.4%, to end at 33,925, while the S&P 500 declined by 1% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6%. For the week, the S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 1.6%. The Nasdaq rose 3.3%, booking its fifth consecutive weekly advance and the longest winning streak in over a year, thanks to strong earnings from some major tech companies. The Dow industrials erased its earlier gain and slipped 0.3% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch7 hr. 22 min. ago Related News

These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets To Start The Year

These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets To Start The Year Markets got the year off to a stellar start in January, with a positive performance for 34 of the 38 non-currency assets tracked by Deutsche Bank thematic research group. In fact, in terms of the breadth of gains, that’s the strongest start to a year since 2019, with advances across equities, sovereign bonds and credit. The main exception to this pattern has been among energy commodities, but lower oil and gas prices have themselves been good news to consumers who’ve been squeezed by higher energy prices last year. Elsewhere, As DB's Henry Allen writes, Chinese assets have continued to perform strongly amidst the economy’s reopening, which has also supported a strong rally amongst industrial metals. Nevertheless, it hasn’t been all good news, with investors remaining nervous about a US recession, as well as the prospect of more persistent inflation. Below we share some more details from the latest DB January performance review Month in Review - The high-level macro overview 2023 got off to a positive start in January, with investor risk appetite supported by several good news stories. The most important was the decline in energy prices, particularly in Europe, where natural gas futures continued their decline from late December with a further -24.8% decline in January. That took them down to their lowest levels since September 2021, and means that the outlook for the European economy is much brighter than expected only a few weeks ago, prompting numerous economists to positively revise their forecasts and remove a Euro Area recession from their 2023 projections. This brightening picture has also been reflected in sentiment indicators, with the European Commission’s numbers for Euro Area consumer confidence at an 11-month high in January. The other positive story for markets in January was the continued reopening of China’s economy. Easing restrictions have made investors more optimistic on China’s economic performance, with the Shanghai Composite up +5.4% in total return terms. And more broadly, industrial metals prices have performed very strongly, with copper (+10.9%) advancing for a third consecutive month, raising concerns that China’s reopening could be inflationary for the global economy. The brighter macro outlook meant that various assets put in a very strong performance over January. For instance, the S&P 500 (+6.3%) had its best start to a year since 2019, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+6.8%) had its best start since 2015. Meanwhile for US Treasuries (+2.8%), it’s been their second-best monthly performance since March 2020, back when the Fed slashed rates to zero as the Covid pandemic began. Tech stocks saw a particularly strong performance following an awful 2022, with the FANG+ index of 10 megacap tech stocks up by +18.7%, marking its best month since August 2020. However, a more negative story over the month has been continued fears about a US recession. These were present from the start of the month, when the ISM readings showed that December was the first month since May 2020 that both the services and manufacturing components were in contractionary territory. Then both the retail sales and industrial production data for December came in beneath expectations. And lastly, the Conference Board’s Leading Index showed a year-on-year decline of -6.0%, which historically has been consistent with either recessions or the recovery from recessions. Other leading indicators such as the yield curve remained deeply inverted too, with the 2s10s closing in inversion territory for a 7th consecutive month. A final theme over the month was growing speculation that central banks might be nearing an end to their current cycle of rate hikes. That was turbocharged by the weak ISM services index for December at the start of the month, and then the US CPI release for December cemented expectations that the Fed would downshift to a 25bps move at their February meeting. Similar themes were evident elsewhere, with the Bank of Canada formally announcing a pause in their rate hikes for the time being. That said, nervousness about stronger-than-expected inflation was still evident, and the end of the month saw a modest sell-off on the penultimate day amidst fears that the central bank meetings in February could see a continuation of their hawkish stance. Which assets saw the biggest gains in January? Equities: January was a positive month for all the major equity indices, including gains for the S&P 500 (+6.3%), the STOXX 600 (+6.8%), the Nikkei (+4.x%) and the Shanghai Composite (+5.4%). Certain sectors like tech did particularly well, with the NASDAQ up +10.7%. European banks also outperformed, with the STOXX 600 Banks index up +14.1% in its strongest January since data begins in 1987. Sovereign Bonds: After an awful 2022 performance, sovereign bonds have had a very strong start to the year, with gains for US Treasuries (+2.8%), Euro Sovereigns (+2.4%) and UK gilts (+2.8%). For US Treasuries, it marks their second-strongest monthly performance since the height of the pandemic in March 2020. Credit: All the credit indices we follow were in positive territory over January, although as with sovereign bonds, EUR credit underperformed USD and GBP credit. The biggest gain was for USD fin sub (+4.4%), where the gain was more than double that for EUR fin sen (+2.1%). Metals: China’s reopening was a big support for industrial metals in January, with copper up +10.9% in its third consecutive monthly advance. In the meantime, gold advanced a further +5.7%, which brings its gains over the last 3 months to +18.0%, and marks its strongest advance over 3 calendar months since August 2011. EM Assets: Emerging markets put in a strong month over January, with the MSCI EM equity index up +7.9% for its strongest start to a year since 2019. Other EM assets also outperformed, with EM bonds up +3.9%, and EM FX up +2.5%. Cryptocurrencies: Having struggled in 2022, crypto assets have had a much better start in 2023. Bitcoin was up +38.8% over the month to $22,951, which is its strongest monthly performance since October 2021. The gains were widespread elsewhere, with Ethereum (+31.5%) and Litecoin (+32.9%) seeing significant advances as well. Which assets saw the biggest losses in January? Energy Commodities: Natural gas prices have declined significantly since the start of the year, with European futures (-24.8%) and US futures (-40.0%) seeing big falls over January. Oil prices have also lost ground, with Brent Crude (-1.7%) and WTI (-1.7%) both down slightly. US Dollar: The dollar index (-1.4%) fell for a 4th consecutive month for the first time since 2020. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 15:20.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt7 hr. 34 min. ago Related News

More Recession Signs: Money Supply Growth Went Negative Again In December

More Recession Signs: Money Supply Growth Went Negative Again In December Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute, Money supply growth fell again in December, falling even further into negative territory after turning negative in November for the first time in twenty-eight years. December's drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. During the thirteen months between April 2020 and April 2021, money supply growth in the United States often climbed above 35 percent year over year, well above even the "high" levels experienced from 2009 to 2013.  Since then, the money supply growth has slowed quickly, and since November, we've been seeing the money supply contract for the first time since the 1990s. The last time the year-over-year (YOY) change in the money supply slipped into negative territory was in November 1994. At that time, negative growth continued for fifteen months, finally turning positive again in January 1996.  During December 2022, YOY growth in the money supply was at –2.4 percent. That's down from November's rate of –0.55 percent and down from December 2021's rate of 6.44 percent.  The money supply metric used here—the "true," or Rothbard-Salerno, money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2.1 The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth. This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed (and excludes short-time deposits and retail money funds). In recent months, M2 growth rates have followed a similar course to TMS growth rates. In December 2022, the M2 growth rate was –1.3 percent. That's down from November's growth rate of –0.01 percent. December's rate was also well down from December 2021's rate of 12.5 percent.  Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity and an indicator of coming recessions. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as commercial banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by slowing rates of money supply growth. However, money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession.  Negative money supply growth is not in itself an especially meaningful metric. But the drop into negative territory we've seen in recent months does help illustrate just how far and how rapidly money supply growth has fallen in recent months. That is generally a red flag for economic growth and employment. Money supply growth also appears to be connected to yield-curve inversion—itself a recession indicator. For example, the 3s/10s yield spread often heads toward zero as money supply growth moves in the same direction. This was especially clear from 1999 through 2000, from 2004 to 2006, and during 2018 and 2019, and beginning in 2022. This is not surprising because trends in money supply growth have long appeared to be connected to the shape of the yield curve. As Bob Murphy notes in his book Understanding Money Mechanics, a sustained decline in TMS growth often reflects spikes in short-term yields, which can fuel a flattening or inverting yield curve.  It's not especially a mystery why short-term interest rates are headed up fast, and why the money supply is decelerating. Since January 2022, the Fed has raised the target federal funds rate from 0.25 percent up to 4.75 percent.  This means fewer injections of Fed money into the market through open market operations. Moreover, although it has done very little to sizably reduce the size of its portfolio, the Fed has nonetheless stopped adding to its portfolio through quantitative easing and allowed a small amount (about 5 percent of $8.9 trillion) to roll off.  It should be emphasized that it is not necessary for money supply growth to turn negative in order to trigger recession, defaults, and other economic disruptions. With recent decades marked by the Greenspan put, financial repression, and other forms of easy money, the Federal Reserve has inflated a number of bubbles and zombie enterprises that now rely on nearly constant infusions of new money to stay afloat. For many of these bubble industries, all that is necessary for a crisis is a slowing in money supply growth, brought on by rising interest rates or a confidence crisis.  Numerous indicators now point toward recession along with the falling money supply and the inverted yield curve. The Leading Economic Index is in recession territory. Real wages have fallen for twenty-one months. Home builder confidence fell every month of 2022. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index has been negative since September. Home price growth has been cut in half. The fact that the money supply is actually shrinking serves as just one more indicator that the so-called soft landing promised by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ever be a reality.  Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 16:20.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt7 hr. 34 min. ago Related News

: Commerce Bancshares raises dividend, but implied yield is still below its peers and the S&P 500

Shares of Commerce Bancshares Inc. CBSH slipped 0.1% in afternoon trading Friday, after the Missouri-based bank raised its quarterly dividend by 6.9%, to 27 cents a share from 25.25 cents a share. Based on current stock prices, the new annual dividend rate increases the implied dividend yield to 1.61% from 1.50%. The new yield compares with the yield for the SPDR S&P Regional Banking exchange-traded fund KRE of 2.28% and the implied yield for the S&P 500 index SPX of 1.64%. Commerce Bancshares’s stock has gained 1.6% over the past three months, while the regional bank ETF has advanced 4.1% and the S&P 500 has rallied 11.2%.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch10 hr. 6 min. ago Related News

Podcast links: turning the table

Fridays are all about podcast links here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at whether... Turning the tablesHoward Lindzon talks with Ted Seides of Capital Allocators fame. (howardlindzon.com)Meb Faber talks with Jim O'Shaughnessy about the launch of OSV. (mebfaber.com)Matt Reustle and Dom Cooke talk with Patrick O'Shaughnessy about the business of Colossus. (joincolossus.com)David Cover and Brent Beshore talk compounding knowledge with Shane Parrish of Farnam Street. (permanentequity.com)BusinessDerek Thompson talks AI and more with Ben Thompson of Stratechery. (theringer.com)Nilay Patel talks with Chris Miller author of "Chip War: The Fight For The World’s Most Critical Technology." (theverge.com)FinanceJustin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand talk with Joe Wiggins author of "The Intelligent Fund Investor." (youtube.com)Barry Ritholtz talks with Neil Dutta, partner and head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, where he analyzes global trends and cross-market investment themes. (ritholtz.com)Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber talk with Prof. Martin Schmalz about how indexing has affected the stock market. (bloomberg.com)Tim Harford on why the tulip mania pales in comparison to the railroad bubble. (timharford.com)Decision makingJosh Wolfe talks with Annie Duke author of "Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away." (podcasts.apple.com)Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk decision making with Prof. Ralph Kenney author of "Give Yourself a Nudge." (rationalreminder.libsyn.com)Non-financeDerek Thompson talks work-life balance with Oliver Burkeman. (open.spotify.com)Dan Harris talks with Jill Bolte Taylor author of "Whole Brain Living." (tenpercent.com)Brian Koppelman talks morning pages with Julia Cameron author of "The Artist's Way." (podcasts.apple.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturns10 hr. 22 min. ago Related News

Stockman: What Inflation Would Look Like In A True Free-Market Economy

Stockman: What Inflation Would Look Like In A True Free-Market Economy Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com, There is nothing more substantive than Bernanke’s original finger-in-the-air proposition that the Fed needed a 200 basis point cushion in the inflation rate in order to steer the economy clear of the dreaded 0.0% inflation line, the other side of which allegedly amounted to a black hole of deflationary demise. But here’s the thing. There is not a shred of historical evidence that the US economy needs a 2.00% inflation guardrail to thrive, or any fixed rate of inflation at all. For instance, even during the most difficult period of the 20th century—from 1921 to 1946 when the US economy experienced the Roaring Twenties boom, the Great Depression bust and the WWII rebound—there was abundant net economic growth over the period as a whole, accompanied by zero inflation. In fact, the US economy nearly tripled in size during that quarter-century period. Real GDP expanded at a robust 3.64% per annum rate, and real GDP per capita rose by 2.55% per annum. By contrast, between the 2007 pre-crisis peak and 2021, real GDP grew at only half that rate (1.72% per annum), while per capita real GDP increased by just 1.04% per year. That was just two-fifths of the rate of annual gain during 1921-1946. Needless to say, it didn’t take any 2.00% inflationary guard rails to generate the salutary outcomes cited above for 1921-1946. The CPI index shown below posted at 542 in February 2021 and 541 a quarter century later in May 1946. Purchasing Power of the Dollar, 1921 to 1946 As it had unfolded, there was zero CPI inflation during the Roaring Twenties; a severe deflation during the Great Depression, which merely reversed the war inflation of 1915-1920; and then a return to the 1921 price level during the booming but regimented economy of WWII. Still, by the spring of 1946 the dollar’s purchasing power was 100% of what it had been in early 1921. It had not taken any net inflation at all to generate a near tripling of the nation’s economic output. The implication is straightforward. To wit, the Fed doesn’t need a pro-inflation target of 2.00% per annum. Nor does it need any of its other macroeconomic targets for unemployment, jobs growth, actual versus potential GDP or the rest of the Keynesian policy apparatus. All of those variables are the job of the people interacting on the free market, producing whatever outcomes their collective actions happened to generate. Indeed, macro-economic outcomes are not properly the business of the state at all. The Fed’s job is far more narrow. As originally conceived by its great architect, then Congressman Carter Glass, its mission was to keep the purchasing power of the dollar as good as the gold to which it was to be linked, and the banking system liquid and stable, as driven by the free market of borrowers and lenders. As we have explained on other occasions, Congressman Glass called this a “bankers’ bank” and the term could not be more diametrically opposed to the central planners’ bank of Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell and Brainard. As Carter Glass saw it, no academician needed to stick his finger in the air and divine an inflation target. Nor did any modeler need to goal-seek his/her equations until they suggested the optimum U-3 unemployment rate relative to an arbitrary inflation target. The fact is, the free market operating with sound gold-backed money was never inflationary. In that context, interest rates were also not a policy “tool” of the central bank, but the result of a market-clearing balancing of supply and demand. As Carter Glass had arranged it, the Fed was not allowed to own government debt, nor did it have an activist arm now known as the FOMC empowered to intervene in the money and capital markets by buying and selling debt securities. To the contrary, its avenue of operation was the discount window at the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks. The latter were authorized to advance funds to member banks, but only at a penalty spread above the free market interest rate, and also only on the basis of sound, self-liquidating collateral in the form of commercial paper that matured within a matter of months. Given this mechanism, the dynamics of Fed policy were the opposite of today. Under the Glassian arrangement, the Fed’s balance sheet was the passive consequence of free market activity by commercial bankers and main street borrowers, not a mechanism to proactively steer the level of aggregate commerce and business activity. Accordingly, the Fed’s value added stemmed not from wild-ass guesses about the inflation rate by PhDs like Lael Brainard, but from the grunt work of green-eyeshade accountants. Their job was to verify that bank loan collateral presented for funding at the discount window represented the obligations of sound borrowers, not speculators and high flyers, who would reliably repay under the terms of the underlying bank loan, thereby ensuring that the Fed’s discount loans would be repaid at term, too. What this meant was that the Fed’s balance sheet was intended to reflect the ebb-and-flow of decentralized commerce and production on main street, not a centralized judgment by 12 people gathered on the banks of the Potomac about whether inflation and unemployment were too high, too low or just right. That is to say, under the bankers’ bank arrangement the free market put an automatic check on CPI inflation. That’s because unsound speculative loans could not be easily made in the first place, since they were not eligible for discount at the Fed window. And if demand for even sound loans got too frisky, interest rates would rise sharply, thereby rationing available savings until more of the latter could be generated or demand for the former was curtailed. *  *  * The truth is, we’re on the cusp of an economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. And most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s exactly why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released a free report with all the details on how to survive an economic collapse. Click here to download the PDF now. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/03/2023 - 13:00.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt10 hr. 50 min. ago Related News

: ISM services index rises to 55.2% in January from 49.2% in prior month

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch12 hr. 50 min. ago Related News

: Stock-index futures fall after much stronger-than-expected jobs report

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch14 hr. 50 min. ago Related News

Nasdaq Futures Deflate As Apple Leads Tech Disappointments: Traders Look To Jobs Data For Mitigating Impact

Trading in the U.S. index futures suggests stocks may end a solidly positive week on a negative note. That said, the data-dependency of the Fed places the onus of providing trading cues to each incoming economic data. The U.S. read more.....»»

Category: blogSource: benzinga15 hr. 6 min. ago Related News

: Apple, Alphabet and Amazon stock selloff would reduce their market caps by more than $150 billion combined

The selloff in the shares of AAA technology behemoths — Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. — that reported quarterly results overnight are shaving off a combined $158.5 billion from the companies’ market capitalizations. But that loss would be just about 38% of what the $254.5 billion gained the day before earnings were reported. Apple stock AAPL fell 2.4% in premarket trading Friday after earnings were reported late Thursday. While that would cut Apple’s market cap by $57.6 billion, the pre-earnings rally of 3.7% added $85.3 billion. Alphabet’s stock GOOGLGOOG fell 3.6% ahead of Friday’s open to reduce its market cap by $49.8 billion, but the Thursday rally of 7.3% had added $93.6 billion. And for Amazon, the stock AMZN shed 4.4% early Friday to cut off $51.1 billion in market cap, but Thursday’s surge of 7.4% had added $75.6 billion. Meanwhile, futures NQ00 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 sank 1.1% ahead of Friday’s open, after the index NDX jumped 3.6% on Thursday. The futures ES00 for the S&P 500 SPX fell 0.6% early Friday.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch15 hr. 6 min. ago Related News

Ugg boots, a fashion staple of the early 2000s, are cool again thanks to Gen Z and Kylie Jenner

Ugg boots, which went from being a must-have item to fashion's biggest faux pas in the mid-2010s, are back in fashion. Ugg's $150 ultra mini platform boot.Getty/Christian Vierig Ugg boots are back in fashion. The sheepskin-lined boots have become a must-have item for Gen Z shoppers. Fashion-search index Lyst said Thursday that the brand was one of Q4's hottest items.  Ugg boots are officially cool again. The sheepskin-lined boots — which started life in California in the 1970s, inspired by Australian beach shoes for surfers in Australia — became popular in the early 2000s when they were picked up by the fashion crowd. In recent years, they have increasingly become the footwear of choice among younger generations.The Ugg brand has gradually made a comeback over the past few years after a nearly decade-long hiatus. This comeback was initially sparked by the "ugly fashion" movement, where ugly products became so ironic that they were fashionable. Now, younger shoppers are snapping up Ugg's $150 ultra mini platform boots, which have been worn by the likes of Kylie Jenner and the Hadid sisters. So much so, that these cozy boots are rarely in stock. Fashion search site Lyst released its quarterly index of the hottest brands in the fourth quarter of 2022 on Thursday. Ugg was listed as one of the top 20 brands for the first time since the index was created in 2017."The power of a strong Gen Z following is undeniable," Lyst analysts wrote, adding that searches of these boots spiked by 82% over the holiday season and were sold out at most retailers for the entire fourth quarter.Its comeback has shown up in its parent company's financials in the past 12 months. Deckers Outdoor Corp, which also owns the sneaker brand Hoka, saw sales at its Ugg brand grow throughout 2022. But in its most recent quarterly results, reported after market close on Thursday, sales at Ugg dropped by 1.6% versus the same period the year before.In a call with analysts on Thursday, Deckers execs said that consumer demand for its Ugg brand was still strong. He said weaker numbers during the quarter were partly driven by supply chain issues, which meant the brand wasn't able to get enough stock in time. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt17 hr. 22 min. ago Related News

Cathie Wood hails her flagship ARKK ETF as "the new Nasdaq" after the fund just notched its best month ever in January

The famed investor said her flagship fund, ARKK, offers investors more exposure to disruptive innovation stocks than the tech-heavy benchmark index. Cathie Wood is the CEO and chief investment officer of ARK Invest, which runs three of the highest-returning stock ETFs of the last three years.ARK Invest Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood glorified her flagship fund as "the new Nasdaq" in a Thursday Bloomberg interview.  The famed investor said ARKK offers investors more exposure to disruptive innovation stocks than the benchmark index. Her comments come after the Ark Innovation fund just logged its best month ever in January, rising 28%.  Famed investor Cathie Wood hailed her flagship Ark Innovation (ARKK) fund as "the new Nasdaq" after it notched its best ever monthly performance in January. In a Bloomberg interview on Thursday, the Ark Invest CEO said ARKK gives investors more exposure to disruptive innovation stocks than the tech-heavy benchmark index. "As we were getting hit so badly, what we also saw is investors taking tax losses in some of Nasdaq and other strategies and moving into our strategy, which was hit so hard, because they did believe that we were going to rebound faster." "We are the new Nasdaq," Wood said, as a selling point to investors of her fund. "Look through [the Nasdaq] now, you will not find the kind of disruptive innovation, it certainly doesn't dominate those indexes," she added. Wood's exchange-traded fund delivered a 28% gain for January following two years of low performance - it dropped 69% in 2022 and 21% in 2021.ARKK has rebounded as tech stocks like Tesla, Spotify and Roku, which make up a large chunk of its portfolio, made a strong comeback at the start of 2023. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq rose just 10.62% last month. Compared to ARKK, the Nasdaq 100's top holdings include Amazon, Microsoft and Apple. The gain in Wood's fund was bolstered by investor optimism that cooling US inflation would prompt the Federal Reserve to ease up on its aggressive campaign of interest-rate increases, which have been adding pressure on corporate finances.According to Wood, "innovation was one of the biggest victims of the massive interest rate increase we saw last year. It was like an earthquake." She added however, that she would not be surprised to see the Fed cut rates this year.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt17 hr. 22 min. ago Related News

Stocks are getting a boost from a key indicator that"s been a reliable sign of more gains to come

Insider's Phil Rosen breaks down why stocks could stage a rally and the meaning of a key bullish bond market metric. Happy Friday, team. I'm senior reporter Phil Rosen. In case you missed it, the European Central Bank Thursday made a half-point interest rate hike, marking its fifth consecutive move as part of its inflation-fighting efforts.EU policymakers plan to make the same sized hike at their meeting in March, similar to expectations for the US central bank to repeat yesterday's rate hike at its next meeting.  Speaking of rates, today we're going over a key economic indicator that suggests more upside ahead for stocks. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.REUTERS/Brendan McDermid1. Ever since the Fed started tightening policy last March, the stock market has been highly susceptible to interest-rate volatility. And as Insider's Anil Varma writes, falling bond-market volatility is now underpinning the rebounding investor confidence in equities. Based on stocks' blistering January rally, there seems to be a growing sense of optimism for 2023 — despite bleak Wall Street forecasts, as well as the Fed's insistence that more rate hikes are coming.Specifically, the MOVE Index — which measures volatility of US Treasury yields — has dipped to lows that haven't been seen since the Fed's first rate hike of this cycle. This means potentially smaller swings in the stock market as highly rate-sensitive equities get some relief after big rate moves battered indexes in 2022. Data shows that the trajectory of the S&P 500 has been almost a perfect inverse image of the MOVE index over the past year, illustrating the market's heightened sensitivity to the interest-rate outlook.All the while, US trading trends have pointed to increasingly positive market sentiment, as has a key "golden cross" indicator that's widely considered a bullish sign. Stocks saw sustained rallies in 2016, 2019, and 2020 following the flashing of the golden cross.And since Jerome Powell didn't completely dash investors' hopes of a dovish policy pivot at his speech on Wednesday, the market's enthusiasm looks poised to hold up, according to billionaire "bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach."There was just something about his demeanor," Gundlach told CNBC. "He just seems like he has confidence, he feels comfortable in where he's gotten to, and I think everybody kind of sensed that. And he obviously did not fight back against market pricing."Are markets right to feel confident after Powell's speech and heading into the rest of 2023? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know. In other news:Ray DalioYouTube / NYT Conferences2. European stocks and US futures fall early Friday, after gloomy earnings from Amazon, Google, and Apple underlined the troubles facing Big Tech. Meanwhile, Nordstrom shares shot up after Ryan Cohen reportedly took a stake. Here are the latest market moves.3. Earnings on deck: Mitsubishi, Cigna, and more, all reporting.4. Following the Fed's latest rate hike, economists and strategists shared where to put cash right now. Top experts from across Wall Street broke down the best investments to make as the central bank's policy threatens to tip the economy into a recession. See the 8 recommendations. 5. Mark Zuckerberg's net worth spiked $12 billion this week thanks to Meta's stock rally. Investors have cheered the social media company's cost-cutting plans, and the founder has reaped the rewards. Now Zuckerberg's sitting on roughly $69 billion.6. Ray Dalio warned that "money as we know it is in jeopardy." The Bridgewater Associates founder told CNBC that there's a looming currency crisis with too much money printing happening. Here's what the legendary investor sees as the best option moving forward.7. Oil giant Shell said it will spend $4 billion buying back shares. The announcement follows the company reporting its highest-ever annual profit. Over the last year, Shell booked massive natural gas business thanks to sky-high prices. 8. Here's how to pinpoint the housing markets that will see the biggest declines in 2023. BiggerPockets' star Dave Meyer predicted housing prices will drop across the country, but said regional shifts will vary widely. He also explained why real estate in the most expensive cities could fall 30%. 9. Jeremy Grantham's right-hand man shared five trades to start making right now. These moves, according to Ben Inker, can provide the best returns and the smallest downside risk in the cheapest parts of the market. Get the details.Carvana stock on Feb. 3, 2023Markets Insider10. Stocks like Carvana and Bed Bath & Beyond are getting a huge boost right now. Risk appetite is returning to markets now that the Fed has acknowledged falling inflation. In his Wednesday speech, Powell mentioned the word "disinflation" 13 times.Curated by Phil Rosen in Los Angeles. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.comEdited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt17 hr. 22 min. ago Related News

Fear & Greed Index Remains In "Greed" Zone As Nasdaq Record Sharp Gains For Fourth Straight Week

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed some decline in overall sentiment among US investors. US stocks closed mostly higher on Thursday, with the tech-laden Nasdaq index leading the rally. Investors digested the Fed's policy decision and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. read more.....»»

Category: blogSource: benzinga17 hr. 50 min. ago Related News

Apple Suffers First Quarterly Sales Decline Since 2019

Investors reacted to the letdown by initially driving down Apple's stock by nearly 5% in Thursday's extended trading. Apple on Thursday posted its first quarterly revenue drop in nearly four years after pandemic-driven restrictions on its China factories curtailed sales of the latest iPhone during the holiday season. The company’s sales of $117 billion for the October-December period represented a 5% decline from the same time in the previous year, a deeper downturn than analysts had projected. It marks Apple’s first year-over-year decrease in quarterly revenue since the January-March period in 2019 when sales also slipped 5% amid slowing iPhone demand and the fallout of a trade war with China that was being waged by then-President Donald Trump. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Apple’s profit also eroded during the past quarter, even though the Cupertino, California, company remained a pillar of prosperity. Earnings totaled $30 billion, or $1.88 per share, a 13 decrease from the same time in the previous year. Those results also missed a target of $1.94 per share set by analysts polled by FactSet Research. Investors reacted to the letdown by initially driving down Apple’s stock by nearly 5% in Thursday’s extended trading. But management remarks made during a conference call with analysts raised hopes that Apple’s disappointing performance may have been a mere hiccup, paring the decrease in the company’s shares to less than 1%. Apple’s rare stumble came against a backdrop of renewed investor optimism about tech’s outlook for this year, helping to spur a 17% increase in the sector’s bellwether Nasdaq composite index so far this year. But now Wall Street seems likely to reassess things in light of Apple’s latest results and ongoing worries about a potential recession in the wake of rising interest rates aimed at tamping down inflation, said Investing.com analyst Jesse Cohen. With Google also disclosing a year-over-year quarterly decline in its digital ad sales on Thursday alongside Apple’s disappointing performance, Cohen said it’s clear there are “several challenges the tech sector faces amid the current economic climate of slowing growth and elevated inflation.” Read More: These Companies Have Announced the Biggest Layoffs in 2023 Despite the quarterly downturn in its fortunes. Apple hasn’t signaled any intention to resort to mass layoffs — a stark contrast to its peers in technology. Industry giants Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platoforms have announced plans to jettison more than a combined 50,000 employees as they adjust to revenue slowdowns or downturns caused by people’s lessening dependence on the digital realm as the pandemic has eased. “We manage for the long term,” Apple CEO Tim Cook told analysts during the conference call. “We invest in innovation and people.” Cook had tried to brace investors for tougher sledding in late October when he warned of “increasingly difficult economic conditions” heading into the holiday season. Then, just a few days later, Apple cautioned that China’s attempts to clamp down on the spread of COVID was affecting its production lines and would prevent meeting all the demand for the premium iPhone 14 models during the holidays. That contributed to an 8% decrease in iPhone sales from the previous year to $65.8 billion in the most recent quarter. Cook indicated Apple’s supply headaches are now over, assuring analysts that “production is now back where we want it to be.” In another positive sign, Apple also disclosed that it now has more than 2 billion iPhones, iPads, Macs and other devices in active use for the first time. That is likely to help Apple sell more digital subscriptions and ads, helping to fuel long-term revenue growth......»»

Category: topSource: time19 hr. 50 min. ago Related News

Entera Bio Ltd. (ENTX) Flat As Market Gains: What You Should Know

Entera Bio Ltd. (ENTX) closed at $0.95 in the latest trading session, marking no change from the prior day. Entera Bio Ltd. (ENTX) closed at $0.95 in the latest trading session, marking no change from the prior day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.47%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.11%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 7.94%.Prior to today's trading, shares of the company had lost 12.84% over the past month. This has lagged the Medical sector's loss of 0.48% and the S&P 500's gain of 7.41% in that time.Investors will be hoping for strength from Entera Bio Ltd. as it approaches its next earnings release. The company is expected to report EPS of -$0.12, down 157.14% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $0.1 million, down 41.18% from the prior-year quarter.Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Entera Bio Ltd.These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook.Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. Entera Bio Ltd. is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry is part of the Medical sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 91, putting it in the top 37% of all 250+ industries.The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time. This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Entera Bio Ltd. (ENTX): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksFeb 2nd, 2023Related News

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. (YAMHF) Gains But Lags Market: What You Should Know

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. (YAMHF) closed at $24.84 in the latest trading session, marking a +1.16% move from the prior day. In the latest trading session, Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. (YAMHF) closed at $24.84, marking a +1.16% move from the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's 1.47% gain on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.11%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 7.94%.Coming into today, shares of the company had gained 6.97% in the past month. In that same time, the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector gained 21.22%, while the S&P 500 gained 7.41%.Wall Street will be looking for positivity from Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. as it approaches its next earnings report date. In that report, analysts expect Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. to post earnings of $0.80 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 63.27%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $3.93 billion, down 0.88% from the year-ago period.Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd.Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-team stock moves. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 3.24% lower within the past month. Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).Valuation is also important, so investors should note that Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. has a Forward P/E ratio of 7.16 right now. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 7.57.The Automotive - Foreign industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 60, which puts it in the top 24% of all 250+ industries.The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time. This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. (YAMHF): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksFeb 2nd, 2023Related News