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Expert: Here"s how to head off customer tantrums over Covid measures

Throughout the pandemic, mask mandates and other Covid safety measures have drawn occasional ire — sometimes violent — from customers at restaurants, grocery stores and other public-facing businesses. Some workers have expressed anxiety over confrontations with patrons refusing to show proof of vaccination or wear a mask. And hospitality officials have warned it could cause staff to leave the industry, which has already lost thousands of workers during the pandemic. Andy Prisco, a Seattle-based….....»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsNov 25th, 2021

Expert: Here"s how to head off customer tantrums over Covid measures

Throughout the pandemic, mask mandates and other Covid safety measures have drawn occasional ire — sometimes violent — from customers at restaurants, grocery stores and other public-facing businesses. Some workers have expressed anxiety over confrontations with patrons refusing to show proof of vaccination or wear a mask. And hospitality officials have warned it could cause staff to leave the industry, which has already lost thousands of workers during the pandemic. Andy Prisco, a Seattle-based….....»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsNov 25th, 2021

Stockman: A (Bad) Tale Of Two Inflations

Stockman: A (Bad) Tale Of Two Inflations Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Our paint by the numbers central bankers have given the notion of being literalistic a bad name. For years they pumped money like mad all the while insisting that the bogus “lowflation” numbers were making them do it. Now with the lagging measures of inflation north of 5% and the leading edge above 10%, they have insisted loudly that it’s all “transitory”. Well, until today when Powell pulled a U-turn that would have made even Tricky Dick envious. That is, he simply declared “transitory” to be “inoperative”. Or in the context of the Watergate scandal of the time, “This is the operative statement. The others are inoperative.” This 1973 announcement by Richard Nixon’s press secretary, Ron Ziegler, effectively admitted to the mendacity of all previous statements issued by the White House on the Watergate scandal. Still, we won’t believe the Fed heads have given up their lying ways until we see the whites of their eyes. What Powell actually said is they might move forward their taper end from June by a few month, implying that interest rates might then be let up off the mat thereafter. But in the meanwhile, there is at least six month for the Fed to come up with excuses to keep on pumping money at insane rates still longer, while defaulting to one of the stupidest rationalizations for inflation to ever come down the Keynesian pike: Namely, that since the American economy was purportedly harmed badly, and presumably consumers too, with the lowflation between 2012 and 2019, current elevated readings are perforce a “catch-up” boon. That is, more inflation is good for one and all out there on the highways and byways of main street America! You literally can’t make up such rank humbug. Even then, what the hell are they talking about? The shortest inflation measuring stick in town is the Fed’s (naturally) preferred PCE deflator, but here it is since the year 2000. The 21 years gain is 1.93% per annum; and the 9-year gain since inflation targeting became official in January 2012 is 1.73%. Given that the PCE deflator is not a true fixed basket inflation index and that these reading are close enough to target for government work anyway, even the “catch-up” canard fails. That’s especially true because given the virtual certainty of another year or two of 4-6% CPI inflation, even the cumulative measures of inflation will register well above the Fed’s sacrosanct 2.00% target. Moreover, importantly, pray tell what did this really accomplish for the main street economy? On the one hand, savers and fixed income retirees have seen their purchasing power drop by 39% since 2000 and 18% since 2012. At the same time, wage workers in the tradable goods and services sectors got modest wage gains with uniformly bad spill-over effects. To wit, millions lost their jobs to China, India and Mexico etc. because their nominal wages were no longer competitive in the global supply base, while those that hung on to their domestic jobs often lost purchasing ground to domestic inflation. Consequently, the chart below is an unequivocal bad. It is the smoking gun that proves the Fed’s pro-inflation policies and idiotic 2.00% target is wreaking havoc on the main street economy and middle class living standards. Loss of Consumer Purchasing Power, 2000-2021 In short. the group-think intoxicated Fed heads, and their Wall Street and Washington acolytes, are hair-splitting inherently unreliable and misleading numbers as if the BLS inflation data was handed down on stone tablets from financial heaven itself. At the same time, the rampant speculative manias in the financial markets that their oceans of liquidity have actually generated is assiduously ignored or denied. We call this a tale of two inflations because the disaster of today’s rampant financial asset bubbles is rooted in pro-inflation monetary policies which are belied by both theoretical and empirical realities, which we address below. First, however, consider still another aspect of the inflationary asset bubble which is utterly ignored by the Fed. In this case, the group think scribes of the Wall Street Journal inadvertently hit the nail on the head, albeit without the slightest recognition of the financial metastasis they have exposed. We are referring to a recent piece heralding that private-equity firms have announced a record $944.4 billion worth of buyouts in the U.S. so far this year. That 250% of last year’s volume and more than double that of the previous peak in 2007, according to Dealogic. As the WSJ further observed, Driving the urge to go big are the billions of dollars flowing into private-equity coffers as institutions such as pension funds seek higher returns in an era of low interest rates. Buyout firms have raised $314.8 billion in capital to invest in North America so far in 2021, pushing available cash earmarked for the region to a record $755.6 billion, according to data from Preqin. As the end of the year approaches, big buyouts are coming fast and furious. A week ago , private-equity firms Bain Capital and Hellman & Friedman LLC agreed to buy healthcare-technology company Athenahealth Inc. for $17 billion including debt. A week earlier, KKR and Global Infrastructure Partners LLC said they would buy data-center operator CyrusOne Inc. for nearly $12 billion. And the week before that, Advent International Corp. and Permira signed an $11.8 billion deal for cybersecurity-software firm McAfee Corp. The recent string of big LBOs followed the $30 billion-plus deal for medicalsupply company Medline Industries Inc. that H&F, Blackstone Inc. and Carlyle struck in June in the largest buyout since the 2007-08 financial crisis. Needless to say, these LBOs were not done on the cheap, as was the case, oh, 40 years ago. In the case of AthenaHealth, in fact, you have a typical instance of over-the-top “sloppy seconds”. That is, it was taken private by Veritas Capital and Elliott Management three years ago at a fulsome price of $5.7 billion, which is now being topped way up by Bain Capital and Hellman & Friedman LLC in the form of an LBO of an LBO. According to Fitch, AthenaHealth had EBITDA of about $800 million in 2020, which was offset by about $200 million of CapEx or more.That means that at the $17 billion deal value (total enterprise value or TEV), the transaction was being priced at 28X free cash flow to TEV. That’s insane under any circumstances, but when more than half of the purchase price consists of junk debt ($10 billion out of $17 billion), it’s flat out absurd. The reason it is happening is the Fed’s massive financial market distortion: Bain Capital and Hellman & Friedman are so flush with capital that it is burning a hole in their pocket, while the junk debt is notionally so “cheap” that it makes a Hail Mary plausible. But here’s the thing. This is a generic case: the Fed’s radical low interest rate policy is systematically driving the allocation of capital to less and less productive uses. And clearly private equity sponsored LBOs are the poster boy, owing to the inherent double whammy of misallocation described by the WSJ above. On the one hand, capital that should be going to corporate blue chip bonds is ending up on the margin in private equity pools as pension funds, insurance companies and other asset managers struggle to boost returns toward exaggerated benchmarks inherent in their liabilities. At the same time, private equity operators are engaged primarily in the systematic swap of equity for debt in LBO capital structures, such debt taking the form of soaring amounts of junk bonds and loans. The higher coupons on junk debt, in turn, attract more misallocation of capital in the debt markets, while at the same time grinding down the productivity and efficiency of the LBO issuers. That because the hidden truth of LBOs is that on the margin they are nothing more than a financial engineering device that strip-mines cash flows that would ordinarily go into CapEx, R&D, work-force training, marketing, customer development and operational efficiency investments and reallocates these flows to interest payments on onerous levels of the junk debt, instead. That’s the essence of private equity. The underlying false proposition is that 29-year old spread-sheet jockeys at private equity shops tweaking budgets downward for all of these “reinvestment” items—whether on the CapEx or OpEx side of the ledger—know more about these matters than the industry lifetime veterans who typically man either public companies, divested divisions or pre-buyout private companies—before they are treated to the alleged magic of being “LBO’d.” In fact, there is no magic to it, notwithstanding that some LBO’s generate fulsome returns to their private equity owners. But more often than not that’s a function of: Short-term EBITDA gains that are hiding severe underling competitive erosion owing to systematic under-investment; The steady rise of market PE multiples fueled by Fed policies, which policies have drastically inflated LBO “exit” values in the SPAC and IPO markets. So at the end of the day, the Fed’s egregious money-pumping is fueling a massively bloated LBO/junk bond complex that is systematically curtailing productive main street investment and therefore longer-term productivity and economic growth. And, of course, the proceeds of buyouts and junk bonds end up inflating the risk assets, which are mostly held at the tippy top of the economic ladder. And that’s a condition which has gotten far worse since the on-set of Greenspanian “wealth effects” policy in the late 1980s. As shown below, between Q4 1989 and Q2 2021: Top 1%: Share of financial assets rose from 21.0% to 29.2%; Bottom 50%: Share of financial assets fell from 7.2% to 5.6% Meanwhile, the good folks are WSJ saw fit to provide a parallel analysis that further knocks the Fed’s lowflation thesis into a cocked hat. In this case, the authors looked at the average domestic airline ticket price and found that it is about the same today as 25 years ago, $260 today versus $284 in 1996. And that’s before adjusting for cost inflation. So the question recurs: How is it possible that the airline industry hasn’t increased ticket prices in over two decades while its fuel and labor costs, among others, have been marching steadily higher? As the WSJ noted, It isn’t possible really. Most of us are paying a lot more to fly today, thanks to a combination of three covert price increases. First, airlines have unbundled services so that fliers pay extra for checking luggage, boarding early, selecting a seat, having a meal and so on. The charges for these services don’t show up on the ticket price, but they are substantial. Second, the airplane seat’s quality, as measured by its pitch, width, seat material and heft, has declined considerably, meaning customers are getting far less value for the ticket price. And third, many airlines have steadily eroded the value of frequentflier miles, increasing costs for today’s heavy fliers relative to those in 1996. Now, did the hedonics mavens at the BLS capture all these negative quality adjustment in airline ticket prices? They most decidedly did not. As shown below, the BLS says ticket prices have only risen by 5.6% during the same 24 year period or 0.23% per annum. But you wonder with jet fuel costs up by 294% during that period and airline wages higher by 75%—why aren’t they all bankrupt and liquidated? The answer, of course, is that the BLS numbers are a bunch of tommy rot. Adjusted for all the qualitative factors listed above, airline tickets are up by a hell of a lot more than 0.23% per year. Yet the fools in the Eccles Building keep pumping pro-inflation money— so that the private equity game of scalping main street cash flows thrives and middle class living standards continue to fall. CPI for Airline Fares, 1996-2021 Moreover, the backdoor prices increase embedded in airline fares are not unique. These practices are also common in other industries, whether it’s resort fees in hotels, cheaper raw materials in garments and appliances, or more-stringent restaurant and credit-card rewards programs. As the WSJ further queried, Consider the following comparison: Which one is cheaper, a 64-ounce container of mayonnaise at a warehouse club that costs $7.99, or a 48-ounce bottle of the same brand at a supermarket for $5.94? Most people will guess the warehouse club because of its low-price image. If you do the math, the price per ounce is roughly the same. But if you consider that the warehouse club requires a separate mandatory membership fee, the customer is actually paying more per ounce at the warehouse club. Known as two-part pricing, the membership fee camouflages the actual price paid by customers—and is behind the success of Costco,Amazon and likely your neighborhood gym. (A gym’s initiation fee, a landlord’s application or administrative fee, and an online ticket seller’s per-transaction processing fee all serve the same purpose.) Yet this is just a tiny sampling of the complexity of providing apples-to-apples pricing trends at the item level over time—to saying nothing of proper weighting of all the items that go into the index market basket. The implication is crystal clear. As per Powell’s belated recant on the “transitory” matter, the Fed doesn’t know where true inflation has been or have the slightest idea of where it is going. So the idea of inflation targeting against an arbitrary basket of goods and services embodied in the PCE deflator, much of which consists of “imputations” and wildly arbitrary hedonic adjustments, is just plan nuts. They only “inflation” measure that is in the proper remit of the Fed is monetary inflation—-something at least crudely measured by its own balance sheet. On that score the Fed is a infernal inflation machine like no other. And for want of doubt that the resulting massive asset inflation and rampant financial engineering on Wall Street that flows from Fed policies is wreaking havoc on the main street economy, note this insight from the always perceptive Bill Cohan: AT&T bought TimeWarner for a total of $108 billion, including debt assumed, and three years later agreed to spin it off it to Discovery for—what?— $43 billion in stock, cash and assumed debt. By my calculation, that’s a $65 billion destruction of value in three years. That’s not easy to do. He got that right. At the end of the day these massive accounting write-offs are just a proxy for the underlying economic destruction. As we said, a tale of two inflations. And neither of them imply anything good. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/03/2021 - 14:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 3rd, 2021

Futures Surge After Powell-Driven Rout Proves To Be "Transitory"

Futures Surge After Powell-Driven Rout Proves To Be "Transitory" Heading into yesterday's painful close to one of the ugliest months since March 2020, which saw a huge forced liquidation rebalance with more than $8 billion in Market on Close orders, we said that while we are seeing "forced selling dump into the close today" this would be followed by "forced Dec 1 buying frontrunning after the close." Forced selling dump into the close today. Forced Dec 1 buying frontrunning after the close — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 30, 2021 And just as expected, despite yesterday's dramatic hawkish pivot by Powell, who said it was time to retire the word transitory in describing the inflation outlook (the same word the Fed used hundreds of times earlier in 2021 sparking relentless mockery from this website for being clueless as usual) while also saying the U.S. central bank would consider bringing forward plans for tapering its bond buying program at its next meeting in two weeks, the frontrunning of new monthly inflows is in full force with S&P futures rising over 1.2%, Nasdaq futures up 1.3%, and Dow futures up 0.9%, recovering almost all of Tuesday’s decline. The seemingly 'hawkish' comments served as a double whammy for markets, which were already nervous about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant and its potential to hinder a global economic recovery. "At this point, COVID does not appear to be the biggest long-term Street fear, although it could have the largest impact if the new (or next) variant turns out to be worse than expected," Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P and Dow Jones indices, said in a note. "That honor goes to inflation, which continues to be fed by supply shortages, labor costs, worker shortages, as well as consumers, who have not pulled back." However, new month fund flows proved too powerful to sustain yesterday's month-end dump and with futures rising - and panic receding - safe havens were sold and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped almost 6bps, approaching 1.50%. The gap between yields on 5-year and 30-year Treasuries was around the narrowest since March last year. Crude oil and commodity-linked currencies rebounded. Gold remained just under $1,800 and bitcoin traded just over $57,000. There was more good news on the covid front with a WHO official saying some of the early indications are that most Omicron cases are mild with no severe cases. Separately Merck gained 3.8% in premarket trade after a panel of advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration narrowly voted to recommend the agency authorize the drugmaker's antiviral pill to treat COVID-19. Travel and leisure stocks also rebounded, with cruiseliners Norwegian, Carnival, Royal Caribbean rising more than 2.5% each. Easing of covid fears also pushed airlines and travel stocks higher in premarket trading: Southwest +2.9%, Delta +2.5%, Spirit +2.3%, American +2.2%, United +1.9%, JetBlue +1.3%. Vaccine makers traded modestly lower in pre-market trading after soaring in recent days as Wall Street weighs the widening spread of the omicron variant. Merck & Co. bucked the trend after its Covid-19 pill narrowly gained a key recommendation from advisers to U.S. regulators. Moderna slips 2.1%, BioNTech dips 1.3% and Pfizer is down 0.2%. Elsewhere, Occidental Petroleum led gains among the energy stocks, up 3.2% as oil prices climbed over 4% ahead of OPEC's meeting. Shares of major Wall Street lenders also moved higher after steep falls on Tuesday. Here are some of the other biggest U.S. movers today: Salesforce (CRM US) drops 5.9% in premarket trading after results and guidance missed estimates, with analysts highlighting currency-related headwinds and plateauing growth at the MuleSoft integration software business. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US) falls 1.3% in premarket after the computer equipment maker’s quarterly results showed the impact of the global supply chain crunch. Analysts noted solid order trends. Merck (MRK US) shares rise 5.8% in premarket after the company’s Covid-19 pill narrowly wins backing from FDA advisers, which analysts say is a sign of progress despite lingering challenges. Chinese electric vehicle makers were higher in premarket, leading U.S. peers up, after Nio, Li and XPeng reported strong deliveries for November; Nio (NIO US) +4%, Li (LI US ) +6%, XPeng (XPEV US) +4.3%. Ardelyx (ARDX US) shares gain as much as 34% in premarket, extending the biotech’s bounce after announcing plans to launch its irritable bowel syndrome treatment Ibsrela in the second quarter. CTI BioPharma (CTIC US) shares sink 18% in premarket after the company said the FDA extended the review period for a new drug application for pacritinib. Allbirds (BIRD US) fell 7.5% postmarket after the low end of the shoe retailer’s 2021 revenue forecast missed the average analyst estimate. Zscaler (ZS US) posted “yet another impressive quarter,” according to BMO. Several analysts increased their price targets for the security software company. Shares rose 4.6% in postmarket. Ambarella (AMBA US) rose 14% in postmarket after forecasting revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Emcore (EMKR US) fell 9% postmarket after the aerospace and communications supplier reported fiscal fourth-quarter Ebitda that missed the average analyst estimate. Box (BOX US) shares gained as much as 10% in postmarket trading after the cloud company raised its revenue forecast for the full year. Meanwhile, the omicron variant continues to spread around the globe, though symptoms so far appear to be relatively mild. The Biden administration plans to tighten rules on travel to the U.S., and Japan said it would bar foreign residents returning from 10 southern African nations. As Bloomberg notes, volatility is buffeting markets as investors scrutinize whether the pandemic recovery can weather diminishing monetary policy support and potential risks from the omicron virus variant. Global manufacturing activity stabilized last month, purchasing managers’ gauges showed Wednesday, and while central banks are scaling back ultra-loose settings, financial conditions remain favorable in key economies. “The reality is hotter inflation coupled with a strong economic backdrop could end the Fed’s bond buying program as early as the first quarter of next year,” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, said in emailed comments. “With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory.” Looking ahead, Powell is back on the Hill for day 2, and is due to testify before a House Financial Services Committee hybrid hearing at 10 a.m. ET. On the economic data front, November readings on U.S. private payrolls and manufacturing activity will be closely watched later in the day to gauge the health of the American economy. Investors are also awaiting the Fed's latest "Beige Book" due at 2:00 p.m. ET. On the economic data front, November readings on U.S. private payrolls and manufacturing activity will be closely watched later in the day to gauge the health of the American economy. European equities soared more than 1.2%, with travel stocks and carmakers leading broad-based gain in the Stoxx Europe 600 index, all but wiping out Tuesday’s decline that capped only the third monthly loss for the benchmark this year.  Travel, miners and autos are the strongest sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Proximus shares rise as much as 6.5% after the company said it’s started preliminary talks regarding a potential deal involving TeleSign, with a SPAC merger among options under consideration. Dr. Martens gains as much as 4.6% to the highest since Sept. 8 after being upgraded to overweight from equal- weight at Barclays, which says the stock’s de-rating is overdone. Husqvarna advances as much as 5.3% after the company upgraded financial targets ahead of its capital markets day, including raising the profit margin target to 13% from 10%. Wizz Air, Lufthansa and other travel shares were among the biggest gainers as the sector rebounded after Tuesday’s losses; at a conference Wizz Air’s CEO reiterated expansion plans. Wizz Air gains as much as 7.5%, Lufthansa as much as 6.8% Elis, Accor and other stocks in the French travel and hospitality sector also rise after the country’s government pledged to support an industry that’s starting to get hit by the latest Covid-19 wave. Pendragon climbs as much as 6.5% after the car dealer boosted its outlook after the company said a supply crunch in the new vehicle market wasn’t as bad as it had anticipated. UniCredit rises as much as 3.6%, outperforming the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after Deutsche Bank added the stock to its “top picks” list alongside UBS, and Bank of Ireland, Erste, Lloyds and Societe Generale. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also soared, snapping a three-day losing streak, led by energy and technology shares, as traders assessed the potential impact from the omicron coronavirus variant and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.3% Wednesday. South Korea led regional gains after reporting strong export figures, which bolsters growth prospects despite record domestic Covid-19 cases. Hong Kong stocks also bounced back after falling Tuesday to their lowest level since September 2020. Asia’s stock benchmark rebounded from a one-year low, though sentiment remained clouded by lingering concerns on the omicron strain and Fed’s potentially faster tapering pace. Powell earlier hinted that the U.S. central bank will accelerate its asset purchases at its meeting later this month.  “A faster taper in the U.S. is still dependent on omicron not causing a big setback to the outlook in the next few weeks,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, adding that he expects the Fed’s policy rate “will still be low through next year, which should still enable good global growth which will benefit Asia.” Chinese equities edged up after the latest economic data showed manufacturing activity remained at relatively weak levels in November, missing economists’ expectations. Earlier, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said he’s fully confident in the nation’s economic growth in 2022 Japanese stocks rose, overcoming early volatility as traders parsed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which closed 0.4% higher after swinging between a gain of 0.9% and loss of 0.7% in the morning session. Daikin and Fanuc were the largest contributors to a 0.4% rise in the Nikkei 225, which similarly fluctuated. The Topix had dropped 4.8% over the previous three sessions due to concerns over the omicron virus variant. The benchmark fell 3.6% in November, its worst month since July 2020. “The market’s tolerance to risk is quite low at the moment, with people responding in a big way to the smallest bit of negative news,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. “But the decline in Japanese equities was far worse than those of other developed markets, so today’s market may find a bit of calm.” U.S. shares tumbled Tuesday after Powell said officials should weigh removing pandemic support at a faster pace and retired the word “transitory” to describe stubbornly high inflation In rates, bonds trade heavy, as yield curves bear-flatten. Treasuries extended declines with belly of the curve cheapening vs wings as traders continue to price in additional rate-hike premium over the next two years. Treasury yields were cheaper by up to 5bp across belly of the curve, cheapening 2s5s30s spread by ~5.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 1.48%, cheaper by ~4bp, while gilts lag by additional 2bp in the sector. The short-end of the gilt curve markedly underperforms bunds and Treasuries with 2y yields rising ~11bps near 0.568%. Peripheral spreads widen with belly of the Italian curve lagging. The flattening Treasury yield curve “doesn’t suggest imminent doom for the equity market in and of itself,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., said on Bloomberg Television. “Alarm bells go off in terms of recession” when the curve gets closer to inverting, she said. In FX, the Turkish lira had a wild session, offered in early London trade before fading. USD/TRY dropped sharply to lows of 12.4267 on reports of central bank FX intervention due to “unhealthy price formations” before, once again, fading TRY strength after comments from Erdogan. The rest of G-10 FX is choppy; commodity currencies retain Asia’s bid tone, havens are sold: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched lower, as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. The euro moved in a narrow range and Bund yields followed U.S. yields higher. The pound advanced as risk sentiment stabilized with focus still on news about the omicron variant. The U.K. 10-, 30-year curve flirted with inversion as gilts flattened, with money markets betting on 10bps of BOE tightening this month for the first time since Friday. The Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced as rising commodity prices fuel demand from exporters and leveraged funds. Better-than-expected growth data also aided the Aussie, with GDP expanding by 3.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, beating the 3% estimated by economists. Austrian lawmakers extended a nationwide lockdown for a second 10-day period to suppress the latest wave of coronavirus infections before the Christmas holiday period.  The yen declined by the most among the Group-of-10 currencies as Powell’s comments renewed focus on yield differentials. 10-year yields rose ahead of Thursday’s debt auction In commodities, crude futures rally. WTI adds over 4% to trade on a $69-handle, Brent recovers near $72.40 after Goldman said overnight that oil had gotten extremely oversold. Spot gold fades a pop higher to trade near $1,785/oz. Base metals trade well with LME copper and nickel outperforming. Looking at the day ahead, once again we’ll have Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen appearing, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. In addition to that, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and BoE Governor Bailey is also speaking. On the data front, the main release will be the manufacturing PMIs from around the world, but there’s also the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November in the US, the ISM manufacturing reading in the US as well for November, and German retail sales for October. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.2% to 4,620.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 467.58 MXAP up 0.9% to 191.52 MXAPJ up 1.1% to 626.09 Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,935.62 Topix up 0.4% to 1,936.74 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 23,658.92 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,576.89 Sensex up 1.0% to 57,656.51 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,235.85 Kospi up 2.1% to 2,899.72 Brent Futures up 4.2% to $72.15/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,778.93 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.98 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.31% Euro down 0.1% to $1.1326 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Thursday, the first direct contact between officials of the two countries in weeks as tensions grow amid western fears Russia may be planning to invade Ukraine Oil rebounded from a sharp drop on speculation that recent deep losses were excessive and OPEC+ may on Thursday decide to pause hikes in production, with the abrupt reversal fanning already- elevated volatility The EU is set to recommend that member states review essential travel restrictions on a daily basis in the wake of the omicron variant, according to a draft EU document seen by Bloomberg China is planning to ban companies from going public on foreign stock markets through variable interest entities, according to people familiar with the matter, closing a loophole long used by the country’s technology industry to raise capital from overseas investors Manufacturing activity in Asia outside China stabilized last month amid easing lockdown and border restrictions, setting the sector on course to face a possible new challenge from the omicron variant of the coronavirus Germany urgently needs stricter measures to check a surge in Covid-19 infections and protect hospitals from a “particularly dangerous situation,” according to the head of the country’s DIVI intensive-care medicine lobby. A more detailed breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as regional bourses atoned for the prior day’s losses that were triggered by Omicron concerns, but with some of the momentum tempered by recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and mixed data releases including the miss on Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was led lower by underperformance in consumer stocks and with utilities also pressured as reports noted that Shell and Telstra’s entrance in the domestic electricity market is set to ignite fierce competition and force existing players to overhaul their operations, although the losses in the index were cushioned following the latest GDP data which showed a narrower than feared quarterly contraction in Australia’s economy. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was on the mend after yesterday’s sell-off with the index helped by favourable currency flows and following a jump in company profits for Q3, while the KOSPI (+2.1%) was also boosted by strong trade data. Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were somewhat varied as a tech resurgence in Hong Kong overcompensated for the continued weakness in casinos stocks amid ongoing SunCity woes which closed all VIP gaming rooms in Macau after its Chairman's recent arrest, while the mood in the mainland was more reserved after a PBoC liquidity drain and disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which fell short of estimates and slipped back into contraction territory. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the gains in Japanese stocks and after the pullback in global fixed income peers in the aftermath of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments, while a lack of BoJ purchases further contributed to the subdued demand for JGBs. Top Asian News Asia Stocks Bounce Back from One-Year Low Despite Looming Risks Gold Swings on Omicron’s Widening Spread, Inflation Worries Shell Sees Hedge Funds Moving to LNG, Supporting Higher Prices Abe Warns China Invading Taiwan Would Be ‘Economic Suicide’ Bourses in Europe are firmer across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%; Stoxx 600 +1.1%) as the positive APAC sentiment reverberated into European markets. US equity futures are also on the front foot with the cyclical RTY (+2.0%) outpacing its peers: ES (+1.2%), NQ (+1.5%), YM (+0.8%). COVID remains a central theme for the time being as the Omicron variant is observed for any effects of concern – which thus far have not been reported. Analysts at UBS expect market focus to shift away from the variant and more towards growth and earnings. The analysts expect Omicron to fuse into the ongoing Delta outbreak that economies have already been tackling. Under this scenario, the desk expects some of the more cyclical markets and sectors to outperform. The desk also flags two tails risks, including an evasive variant and central bank tightening – particularly after Fed chair Powell’s commentary yesterday. Meanwhile, BofA looks for an over-10% fall in European stocks next year. Sticking with macro updates, the OECD, in their latest economic outlook, cut US, China, Eurozone growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022, with Omicron cited as a factor. Back to trade, broad-based gains are seen across European cash markets. Sectors hold a clear cyclical bias which consists of Travel & Leisure, Basic Resources, Autos, Retail and Oil & Gas as the top performers – with the former bolstered by the seemingly low appetite for coordination on restrictions and measures at an EU level – Deutsche Lufthansa (+6%) and IAG (+5.1%) now reside at the top of the Stoxx 600. The other side of the spectrum sees the defensive sectors – with Healthcare, Household Goods, Food & Beverages as the straddlers. In terms of induvial movers, German-listed Adler Group (+22%) following a divestment, whilst Blue Prism (+1.7%) is firmer after SS&C raised its offer for the Co. Top European News Wizz Says Travelers Are Booking at Shorter and Shorter Notice Turkey Central Bank Intervenes in FX Markets to Stabilize Lira Gold Swings on Omicron’s Widening Spread, Inflation Worries Former ABG Sundal Collier Partner Starts Advisory Firm In FX, the Dollar remains mixed against majors, but well off highs prompted by Fed chair Powell ditching transitory from the list of adjectives used to describe inflation and flagging that a faster pace of tapering will be on the agenda at December’s FOMC. However, the index is keeping tabs on the 96.000 handle and has retrenched into a tighter 95.774-96.138 range, for the time being, as trade remains very choppy and volatility elevated awaiting clearer medical data and analysis on Omicron to gauge its impact compared to the Delta strain and earlier COVID-19 variants. In the interim, US macro fundamentals might have some bearing, but the bar is high before NFP on Friday unless ADP or ISM really deviate from consensus or outside the forecast range. Instead, Fed chair Powell part II may be more pivotal if he opts to manage hawkish market expectations, while the Beige Book prepared for next month’s policy meeting could also add some additional insight. NZD/AUD/CAD/GBP - Broad risk sentiment continues to swing from side to side, and currently back in favour of the high beta, commodity and cyclical types, so the Kiwi has bounced firmly from worst levels on Tuesday ahead of NZ terms of trade, the Aussie has pared a chunk of its declines with some assistance from a smaller than anticipated GDP contraction and the Loonie is licking wounds alongside WTI in advance of Canadian building permits and Markit’s manufacturing PMI. Similarly, Sterling has regained some poise irrespective of relatively dovish remarks from BoE’s Mann and a slender downward revision to the final UK manufacturing PMI. Nzd/Usd is firmly back above 0.6800, Aud/Usd close to 0.7150 again, Usd/Cad straddling 1.2750 and Cable hovering on the 1.3300 handle compared to circa 0.6772, 0.7063, 1.2837 and 1.3195 respectively at various fairly adjacent stages yesterday. JPY/EUR/CHF - All undermined by the aforementioned latest upturn in risk appetite or less angst about coronavirus contagion, albeit to varying degrees, as the Yen retreats to retest support sub-113.50, Euro treads water above 1.1300 and Franc straddles 0.9200 after firmer than forecast Swiss CPI data vs a dip in the manufacturing PMI. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are recovering following yesterday’s COVID and Powell-induced declines in the run-up to the OPEC meetings later today. The complex has also been underpinned by the reduced prospects of coordinated EU-wide restrictions, as per the abandonment of the COVID video conference between EU leaders. However, OPEC+ will take centre stage over the next couple of days, with a deluge of source reports likely as OPEC tests the waters. The case for OPEC+ to pause the planned monthly relaxation of output curbs by 400k BPD has been strengthening. There have been major supply and demand developments since the prior meeting. The recent emergence of the Omicron COVID variant and coordinated release of oil reserves have shifted the balance of expectations relative to earlier in the month (full Newsquawk preview available in the Research Suite). In terms of the schedule, the OPEC meeting is slated for 13:00GMT/08:00EST followed by the JTC meeting at 15:00GMT/10:00EST, whilst tomorrow sees the JMMC meeting at 12:00GMT/07:00EST; OPEC+ meeting at 13:00GMT/08:00EST. WTI Jan has reclaimed a USD 69/bbl handle (vs USD 66.20/bbl low) while Brent Feb hovers around USD 72.50/bbl (vs low USD 69.38/bbl) at the time of writing. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver trade with modest gains and largely in tandem with the Buck. Spot gold failed to sustain gains above the cluster of DMAs under USD 1,800/oz (100 DMA at USD 1,792/oz, 200 DMA at USD 1,791/oz, and 50 DMA at USD 1,790/oz) – trader should be aware of the potential for a technical Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA). Turning to base metals, copper is supported by the overall risk appetite, with the LME contract back above USD 9,500/t. Overnight, Chinese coking coal and coke futures rose over 5% apiece, with traders citing disrupted supply from Mongolia amid the COVID outbreak in the region. US Event Calendar 7am: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.8% 8:15am: Nov. ADP Employment Change, est. 525,000, prior 571,000 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 59.1, prior 59.1 10am: Oct. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.5% 10am: Nov. ISM Manufacturing, est. 61.2, prior 60.8 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Nov. Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 13.4m, prior 13m Central Banks 10am: Powell, Yellen Testify Before House Panel on CARES Act Relief DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you’re under 10 and reading this there’s a spoiler alert today in this first para so please skip beyond and onto the second. Yes my heart broke a little last night as my little 6-year old Maisie said to me at bedtime that “Santa isn’t real is he Daddy?”. I lied (I think it’s a lie) and said yes he was. I made up an elaborate story about how when we renovated our 100 year old house we deliberately kept the chimney purely to let Santa come down it once a year. Otherwise why would we have kept it? She then asked what about her friend who lives in a flat? I tried to bluff my way through it but maybe my answer sounded a bit like my answers as to what will happen with Omicron. I’ll test both out on clients later to see which is more convincing. Before we get to the latest on the virus, given it’s the start of the month, we’ll shortly be publishing our November performance review looking at how different assets fared over the month just gone and YTD. It arrived late on but Omicron was obviously the dominant story and led to some of the biggest swings of the year so far. It meant that oil (which is still the top performer on a YTD basis) was the worst performer in our monthly sample, with WTI and Brent seeing their worst monthly performances since the initial wave of market turmoil over Covid back in March 2020. And at the other end, sovereign bonds outperformed in November as Omicron’s emergence saw investors push back the likelihood of imminent rate hikes from central banks. So what was shaping up to be a good month for risk and a bad one for bonds flipped around in injury time. Watch out for the report soon from Henry. Back to yesterday now, and frankly the main takeaway was that markets were desperate for any piece of news they could get their hands on about the Omicron variant, particularly given the lack of proper hard data at the moment. The morning started with a sharp selloff as we discussed at the top yesterday, as some of the more optimistic noises from Monday were outweighed by that FT interview, whereby Moderna’s chief executive had said that the existing vaccines wouldn’t be as effective against the new variant. Then we had some further negative news from Regeneron, who said that analysis and modelling of the Omicron mutations indicated that its antibody drug may not be as effective, but that they were doing further analysis to confirm this. However, we later got some comments from a University of Oxford spokesperson, who said that there wasn’t any evidence so far that vaccinations wouldn’t provide high levels of protection against severe disease, which coincided with a shift in sentiment early in the European afternoon as equities begun to pare back their losses. The CEO of BioNTech and the Israeli health minister expressed similar sentiments, noting that vaccines were still likely to protect against severe disease even among those infected by Omicron, joining other officials encouraging people to get vaccinated or get booster shots. Another reassuring sign came in an update from the EU’s ECDC yesterday, who said that all of the 44 confirmed cases where information was available on severity “were either asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.” After the close, the FDA endorsed Merck’s antiviral Covid pill. While it’s not clear how the pill interacts with Omicron, the proliferation of more Covid treatments is still good news as we head into another winter. The other big piece of news came from Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, where the main headline was his tapering comment that “It is appropriate to consider wrapping up a few months sooner.” So that would indicate an acceleration in the pace, which would be consistent with the view from our US economists that we’ll see a doubling in the pace of reductions at the December meeting that’s only two weeks from today. The Fed Chair made a forceful case for a faster taper despite lingering Omicron uncertainties, noting inflation is likely to stay elevated, the labour market has improved without a commensurate increase in labour supply (those sidelined because of Covid are likely to stay there), spending has remained strong, and that tapering was a removal of accommodation (which the economy doesn’t need more of given the first three points). Powell took pains to stress the risk of higher inflation, going so far as to ‘retire’ the use of the term ‘transitory’ when describing the current inflation outlook. So team transitory have seemingly had the pitch taken away from them mid match. The Chair left an exit clause that this outlook would be informed by incoming inflation, employment, and Omicron data before the December FOMC meeting. A faster taper ostensibly opens the door to earlier rate hikes and Powell’s comment led to a sharp move higher in shorter-dated Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield up +8.1bps on the day, having actually been more than -4bps lower when Powell began speaking. They were as low as 0.44% then and got as high as 0.57% before closing at 0.56%. 2yr yields have taken another leg higher overnight, increasing +2.5bps to 0.592%. Long-end yields moved lower though and failed to back up the early day moves even after Powell, leading to a major flattening in the yield curve on the back of those remarks, with the 2s10s down -13.7bps to 87.3bps, which is its flattest level since early January. Overnight 10yr yields are back up +3bps but the curve is only a touch steeper. My 2 cents on the yield curve are that the 2s10s continues to be my favourite US recession indicator. It’s worked over more cycles through history than any other. No recession since the early 1950s has occurred without the 2s10s inverting. But it takes on average 12-18 months from inversion to recession. The shortest was the covid recession at around 7 months which clearly doesn’t count but I think we were very late cycle in early 2020 and the probability of recession in the not too distant future was quite high but we will never know.The shortest outside of that was around 9 months. So with the curve still at c.+90bps we are moving in a more worrying direction but I would still say 2023-24 is the very earliest a recession is likely to occur (outside of a unexpected shock) and we’ll need a rapid flattening in 22 to encourage that. History also suggests markets tend to ignore the YC until it’s too late. So I wouldn’t base my market views in 22 on the yield curve and recession signal yet. However its something to look at as the Fed seemingly embarks on a tightening cycle in the months ahead. Onto markets and those remarks from Powell (along with the additional earlier pessimism about Omicron) proved incredibly unhelpful for equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-1.90%) giving up the previous day’s gains to close at its lowest level in over a month. It’s hard to overstate how broad-based this decline was, as just 7 companies in the entire S&P moved higher yesterday, which is the lowest number of the entire year so far and the lowest since June 11th, 2020, when 1 company ended in the green. Over in Europe it was much the same story, although they were relatively less affected by Powell’s remarks, and the STOXX 600 (-0.92%) moved lower on the day as well. Overnight in Asia, stocks are trading higher though with the KOSPI (+2.02%), Hang Seng (+1.40%), the Nikkei (+0.37%), Shanghai Composite (+0.11%) and CSI (+0.09%) all in the green. Australia’s Q3 GDP contracted (-1.9% qoq) less than -2.7% consensus while India’s Q3 GDP grew at a firm +8.4% year-on-year beating the +8.3% consensus. In China the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 49.9 against a 50.6 consensus. Futures markets are indicating a positive start to markets in US & Europe with the S&P 500 (+0.73%) and DAX (+0.44%) trading higher again. Back in Europe, there was a significant inflation story amidst the other headlines above, since Euro Area inflation rose to its highest level since the creation of the single currency, with the flash estimate for November up to +4.9% (vs. +4.5% expected). That exceeded every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg, and core inflation also surpassed expectations at +2.6% (vs. +2.3% expected), again surpassing the all-time high since the single currency began. That’s only going to add to the pressure on the ECB, and yesterday saw Germany’s incoming Chancellor Scholz say that “we have to do something” if inflation doesn’t ease. European sovereign bonds rallied in spite of the inflation reading, with those on 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-3.5bps) and BTPs (-0.9bps) all moving lower. Peripheral spreads widened once again though, and the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields closed at its highest level in just over a year. Meanwhile governments continued to move towards further action as the Omicron variant spreads, and Greece said that vaccinations would be mandatory for everyone over 60 soon, with those refusing having to pay a monthly €100 fine. Separately in Germany, incoming Chancellor Scholz said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the question of compulsory vaccinations, saying to the Bild newspaper in an interview that “My recommendation is that we don’t do this as a government, because it’s an issue of conscience”. In terms of other data yesterday, German unemployment fell by -34k in November (vs. -25k expected). Separately, the November CPI readings from France at +3.4% (vs. +3.2% expected) and Italy at +4.0% (vs. +3.3% expected) surprised to the upside as well. In the US, however, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure in November fell to its lowest since February at 109.5 (vs. 110.9 expected), and the MNI Chicago PMI for November fell to 61.8 9vs. 67.0 expected). To the day ahead now, and once again we’ll have Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen appearing, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. In addition to that, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and BoE Governor Bailey is also speaking. On the data front, the main release will be the manufacturing PMIs from around the world, but there’s also the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November in the US, the ISM manufacturing reading in the US as well for November, and German retail sales for October. Tyler Durden Wed, 12/01/2021 - 07:47.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 1st, 2021

3 Stocks to Buy at Big Discounts in December and Beyond

Looking at Darden Restaurants (DRI), Tempur Sealy International, Inc. (TPX), and Dave & Buster's (PLAY) to see if investors should consider buying the stocks at a discount as we head into the final month of 2021... Today’s episode of Full Court Finance at Zacks quickly dives into the recent market pullback to end November. The focus then shifts to Darden Restaurants DRI, Tempur Sealy International, Inc. TPX, and Dave & Buster's PLAY to see if investors should consider buying the stocks at a discount as we head into the final month of 2021.Stocks bounced back on Monday following Friday’s big Omicron variant-focused selloff, only to fall again on Tuesday. The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq had all dropped by between 1.5% to 1.8% through late afternoon trading Tuesday, driven lower by the same new covid strain fears.Wall Street also focused on Jay Powell’s comments that inflation might justify a quicker reduction in its bond purchases. The central bank had hoped to end its run of stimulus-focused bond purchases by June, while leaving interest rates unchanged during this stretch. But the continuing supply chain bottlenecks and rising prices might force their hand sooner.Covid and new strains are likely here to stay and investors and consumers have largely proven they’re willing to focus on signs of progress in favor of fears. Plus, the market was due for another pullback amid its huge run from the virus lows, especially after the September and early October downturn was wiped away in a matter of weeks.The S&P 500 is still hovering above its 50-day moving average and the recent downturn has pushed it below neutral RSI levels (50) at 46—it sat above overbought (70 or higher) in the middle of November. Investors should be prepared for the possibility of more near-term selling, but those with longer-term horizons shouldn’t necessarily try to time the market.Given this backdrop, coupled with accommodatingly-low interest rates and S&P 500 earnings growth, investors might want to consider buying a few stocks trading at discounts in December. The first stock on the docket is Darden Restaurants.Darden is a dine-in restaurant chain standout, with brands from Olive Garden to LongHorn Steakhouse. The sit-down dining company got crushed in the early months of the pandemic, but Darden has already bounced back in a big way and its growth outlook remains strong as U.S. consumers prove they are ready and able to spend on fun things again.After Darden, the episode looks at Tempur Sealy, which is one of the largest mattress and bedding companies in the world. The high-end company operates under multiple brands and has counited to rank highly in customer satisfaction. Tempur Sealy’s sales surged in 2019 and during its covid-boosted 2020. And Tempur Sealy is expected to continue to post impressive top-line expansion.Moving on from TPX, the episode ends with a look at arcade and sports bar standout Dave & Buster's. Like DRI, PLAY got hammeredby by lockdowns and social distancing. Luckily, Dave & Buster's has turned things around and people are pouring back into its over 140 locations to help it possibly return to its pre-pandemic sales this year. Tech IPOs With Massive Profit Potential: Last years top IPOs surged as much as 299% within the first two months. With record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs and a record-setting stock market, this year could be even more lucrative. See Zacks’ Hottest Tech IPOs Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI): Free Stock Analysis Report Tempur Sealy International, Inc. (TPX): Free Stock Analysis Report Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 30th, 2021

BTFDers Unleashed: Futures, Yields, Oil Jump As Omicron Panic Eases

BTFDers Unleashed: Futures, Yields, Oil Jump As Omicron Panic Eases As expected over the weekend, and as we first noted shortly after electronic markets reopened for trading on Sunday, S&P futures have maintained their overnight gains and have rebounded 0.7% while Nasdaq contracts jumped as much as 1.3% after risk sentiment stabilized following Friday’s carnage and as investors settled in for a few weeks of uncertainty on whether the Omicron variant would derail economic recoveries and the tightening plans of some central banks. Japan led declines in the Asian equity session (which was catching down to Friday's US losses) after the government shut borders to visitors. The region’s reopening stocks such as restaurants, department stores, train operators and travel shares also suffered some losses.  Oil prices bounced $3 a barrel to recoup some of Friday's rout, while the safe haven yen, Swiss franc and 10Y Treasury took a breather after its run higher. Moderna shares jumped as much as 12% in pre-market trading after Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton said he suspects the new omicron coronavirus variant may elude current vaccines, and if so, a reformulated shot could be available early in the new year. Which he would obviously say as his company makes money from making vaccines, even if they are not very efficient. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers today: BioNTech (BNTX US) advanced 5% after it said it’s starting with the first steps of developing a new adapted vaccine, according to statement sent by text. Merck & Co. (MRK US) declined 1.6% after it was downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi, which also opens a negative catalyst watch, with “high probability” the drugmaker will abandon development of its HIV treatment. A selection of small biotechs rise again in U.S. premarket trading amid discussion of the companies in StockTwits and after these names outperformed during Friday’s market rout. Palatin Tech (PTN US) +37%, Biofrontera (BFRI US) +22%, 180 Life Sciences (ATNF US) +19%. Bonds gave back some of their gains, with Treasury futures were down 11 ticks. Like other safe havens, the market had rallied sharply as investors priced in the risk of a slower start to rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and less tightening by some other central banks. Needless to say, Omicron is all anyone can talk about: on one hand, authorities have already orchestrated a lot of global panic: Britain called an urgent meeting of G7 health ministers on Monday to discuss developments on the virus, even though the South African doctor who discovered the strain and treated cases said symptoms of Omicron were so far mild. The new variant of concern was found as far afield as Canada and Australia as more countries such as Japan imposed travel restriction to try to seal themselves off. Summarizing the fearmongering dynamic observed, overnight South African health experts - including those who discovered the Omicron variant, said it appears to cause mild symptoms, while the Chinese lapdog organization, WHO, said the variant’s risk is “extremely high”. Investors are trying to work out if the omicron flareup will a relatively brief scare that markets rebound from, or a bigger blow to the global economic recovery. Much remains unanswered about the new strain: South African scientists suggested it’s presenting with mild symptoms so far, though it appears to be more transmissible, but the World Health Organization warned it could fuel future surges of Covid-19 with severe consequences. "There is a lot we don't know about Omicron, but markets have been forced to reassess the global growth outlook until we know more," said Rodrigo Catril, a market strategist at NAB. "Pfizer expects to know within two weeks if Omicron is resistant to its current vaccine, others suggest it may take several weeks. Until then markets are likely to remain jittery." "Despite the irresistible pull of buying-the-dip on tenuous early information on omicron, we are just one negative omicron headline away from going back to where we started,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “Expect plenty of headline-driven whipsaw price action this week.” The emergence of the omicron strain is also complicating monetary policy. Traders have already pushed back the expected timing of a first 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve to July from June. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic played down economic risks from a new variant, saying he’s open to a quicker paring of asset purchases to curb inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speak before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. “We know that central banks can quickly switch to dovish if they need to,” Mahjabeen Zaman, Citigroup senior investment specialist, said on Bloomberg Television. “The liquidity playbook that we have in play right now will continue to support the market.” European stocks rallied their worst drop in more than a year on Friday, with travel and energy stocks leading the advance. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% while FTSE 100 futures gain more than 1%, aided by a report that Reliance may bid for BT Group which jumped as much as 9.5% following a report that India’s Reliance Industries may offer to buy U.K. phone company, though it pared the gain after Reliance denied it’s considering a bid. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde put a brave face on the latest virus scare, saying the euro zone was better equipped to face the economic impact of a new wave of COVID-19 infections or the Omicron variant Japanese shares lead Asian indexes lower after Premier Kishida announces entry ban of all new foreign visitors. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index closed down 0.9% at the lowest level since October 2020, led by Galaxy Entertainment and Meituan. The index followed regional peers lower amid worries about the new Covid variant Omicron. Amid the big movers, Galaxy Entertainment was down 5.4% after police arrested Macau’s junket king, while Meituan falls 7.1% after reporting earnings. In FX, currency markets are stabilizing as the week kicks off yet investors are betting on the possibility of further volatility. The South African rand climbed against the greenback though most emerging-market peers declined along with developing-nation stocks. Turkey’s lira slumped more than 2% after a report at the weekend that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered a probe into foreign currency trades. The Swiss franc, euro and yen retreat while loonie and Aussie top G-10 leaderboard after WTI crude futures rally more than 4%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hovered after Friday’s drop, and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers; commodity currencies led gains. The euro slipped back below $1.13 and Bunds sold off, yet outperformed Treasuries. The pound was steady against the dollar and rallied against the euro. Australian sovereign bonds pared an opening jump as Treasuries trimmed Friday’s spike amid continuing uncertainty over the fallout from the omicron variant. The Aussie rallied with oil and iron ore. The yen erased an earlier decline as a government announcement on planned border closures starting Tuesday spurred a drop in local equities. The rand strengthens as South African health experts call omicron variant “mild.” In rates, Treasuries were cheaper by 4bp-7bp across the curve in belly-led losses, reversing a portion of Friday’s sharp safe-haven rally as potential economic impact of omicron coronavirus strain continues to be assessed. The Treasury curve bear- steepened and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped as much as 7 basis points to 1.54%; that unwound some of Friday’s 16 basis-point plunge -- the steepest since March 2020.  Focal points include month-end on Tuesday, November jobs report Friday, and Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak Monday afternoon. Treasuries broadly steady since yields gapped higher when Asia session began, leaving 10-year around 1.54%, cheaper by almost 7bp on the day; front-end outperformance steepens 2s10s by ~3bp. Long-end may draw support from potential for month-end buying; Bloomberg Treasury index rebalancing was projected to extend duration by 0.11yr as of Nov. 22 In commodities, oil prices bounced after suffering their largest one-day drop since April 2020 on Friday. "The move all but guarantees the OPEC+ alliance will suspend its scheduled increase for January at its meeting on 2 December," wrote analyst at ANZ in a note. "Such headwinds are the reason it's been only gradually raising output in recent months, despite demand rebounding strongly." Brent rebounded 3.9% to $75.57 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 4.5% to $71.24. Gold has so far found little in the way of safe haven demand, leaving it stuck at $1,791 an ounce . SGX iron ore rises almost 8% to recoup Friday’s losses. Bitcoin rallied after falling below $54,000 on Friday. Looking at today's calendar, we get October pending home sales, and November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity. We also get a bunch of Fed speakers including Williams, Powell making remarks at the New York Fed innovation event, Fed’s Hassan moderating a panel and Fed’s Bowman discussing central bank and indigenous economies. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,625.00 MXAP down 0.9% to 191.79 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 625.06 Nikkei down 1.6% to 28,283.92 Topix down 1.8% to 1,948.48 Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 23,852.24 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,562.70 Sensex up 0.4% to 57,307.46 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,239.82 Kospi down 0.9% to 2,909.32 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 467.47 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.31% Euro down 0.3% to $1.1283 Brent Futures up 3.8% to $75.49/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,797.11 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.13% to 96.22 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The omicron variant of Covid-19, first identified in South Africa, has been detected in locations from Australia to the U.K. and Canada, showing the difficulties of curtailing new strains While health experts in South Africa, where omicron was first detected, said it appeared to cause only mild symptoms, the Geneva-based WHO assessed the variant’s risk as “extremely high” and called on member states to test widely. Understanding the new strain will take several days or weeks, the agency said All travelers arriving in the U.K. starting at 4 a.m. on Nov. 30 must take a PCR coronavirus test on or before the second day of their stay and isolate until they receive a negative result. Face coverings will again be mandatory in shops and other indoor settings and on public transport. Booster shots may also be approved for more age groups within days, according to Health Secretary Sajid Javid The economic effects of the successive waves of the Covid pandemic have been less and less damaging, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says Italian bonds advance for a third day, as investors shrug off new coronavirus developments over the weekend and stock futures advance, while bunds are little changed ahead of German inflation numbers and a raft of ECB speakers including President Christine Lagarde A European Commission sentiment index fell to 117.5 in November from 118.6 the previous month, data released Monday showed Spanish inflation accelerated to the fastest in nearly three decades in November on rising food prices, underscoring the lingering consequences of supply-chain bottlenecks across Europe. Consumer prices jumped 5.6% Energy prices in Europe surged on Monday after weather forecasts showed colder temperatures for the next two weeks that will lift demand for heating ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel took to the airwaves to reassure her fellow Germans that inflation will slow again, hours before data set to show the fastest pace of price increases since the early 1990s Russia’s ambassador to Washington said more than 50 diplomats and their family members will have to leave the U.S. by mid-2022, in the latest sign of tensions between the former Cold War enemies China sent the biggest sortie of warplanes toward Taiwan in more than seven weeks after a U.S. lawmaker defied a Chinese demand that she abandon a trip to the island A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded cautiously and US equity futures rebounded from Friday’s hefty selling (S&P 500 -2.3%) as all focus remained on the Omicron variant after several countries announced restrictions and their first cases of the new variant, although markets took solace from reports that all cases so far from South Africa have been mild. Furthermore, NIH Director Collins was optimistic that current vaccines are likely to protect against the Omicron variant but also noted it was too early to know the answers, while Goldman Sachs doesn’t think the new variant is a sufficient reason to adjust its portfolio citing comments from South Africa’s NICD that the mutation is unlikely to be more malicious and existing vaccines will most likely remain effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. ASX 200 (-0.5%) is subdued after Australia registered its first cases of the Omicron variant which involved two people that arrived in Sydney from southern Africa and with the government reviewing its border reopening plans. Nikkei 225 (-1.6%) whipsawed whereby it initially slumped at the open due to the virus fears and currency-related headwinds but then recouped its losses and briefly returned flat as the mood gradually improved, before succumbing to a bout of late selling, and with mixed Retail Sales data adding to the indecision. Hang Seng (-1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (Unch) weakened with Meituan the worst performer in Hong Kong after posting a quarterly loss and with casino names pressured by a crackdown in which police detained Suncity Group CEO and others after admitting to accusations including illegal cross border gambling. However, the losses in the mainland were cushioned after firm Industrial Profits data over the weekend and with local press noting expectations for China to adopt a more proactive macro policy next year. Finally, 10yr JGBs shrugged off the pullback seen in T-note and Bund futures, with price action kept afloat amid the cautious mood in stocks and the BoJ’s presence in the market for over JPY 900bln of JGBs mostly concentrated in 3yr-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Hong Kong Stocks Slide to 13-Month Low on Fresh Virus Woes Li Auto Loss Narrows as EV Maker Rides Out Supply-Chain Snarls Singapore Adds to Its Gold Pile for the First Time in Decades China Growth Stocks Look Like Havens as Markets Confront Omicron Bourses in Europe are experiencing a mild broad-based rebound (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%; Stoxx 600 +0.9%) following Friday's hefty COVID-induced losses. Desks over the weekend have been framing Friday's losses as somewhat overstretched in holiday-thinned liquidity, given how little is known about the Omicron variant itself. The strain will likely remain the market theme as scientists and policymakers factor in this new variant, whilst data from this point forth – including Friday's US labour market report - will likely be passed off as somewhat stale, and headline risk will likely be abundant. Thus far, symptoms from Omicron are seemingly milder than some of its predecessors, although governments and central banks will likely continue to express caution in this period of uncertainty. Back to price action, the momentum of the rebound has lost steam; US equity futures have also been drifting lower since the European cash open – with the RTY (+0.9%) was the laggard in early European trade vs the ES (+0.8%), NQ (+1.0%) and YM (+0.7%). European cash bourses have also been waning off best levels but remain in positive territory. Sectors are mostly in the green, but the breadth of the market has narrowed since the cash open. Travel & Leisure retains the top spot in what seems to be more a reversal of Friday's exaggerated underperformance as opposed to a fundamentally driven rebound – with more nations announcing travel restrictions to stem the spread of the variant. Oil & Gas has also trimmed some of Friday's losses as oil prices see a modest rebound relative to Friday's slump. On the other end of the spectrum, Healthcare sees mild losses as COVID-related names take a mild breather, although Moderna (+9.1% pre-market) gains ahead of the US open after its Chief Medical Officer suggested a new vaccine for the variant could be ready early next year. Meanwhile, Autos & Parts reside as the current laggard amid several bearish updates, including a Y/Y drop in German car exports - due to the chip shortage and supply bottlenecks – factors which the Daimler Truck CEO suggested will lead to billions of Euros in losses. Furthermore, auto supbt.aplier provider Faurecia (-5.9%) trades at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after slashing guidance – again a function of the chip shortage. In terms of Monday M&A, BT (+4.7%) shares opened higher by almost 10% following source reports in Indian press suggesting Reliance Industries is gearing up for a takeover approach of BT – reports that were subsequently rebuffed. Top European News U.K. Mortgage Approvals Fall to 67,199 in Oct. Vs. Est. 70,000 Johnson Matthey Rises on Report of Battery Talks With Tata Gazprom Reports Record Third-Quarter Profit Amid Gas Surge Omicron’s Spread Fuels Search for Answers as WHO Sounds Warning In FX, the Buck has bounced from Friday’s pullback lows on a mixture of short covering, consolidation and a somewhat more hopeful prognosis of SA’s new coronavirus strand compared to very early perceptions prompted by reports that the latest mutation would be even worse than the Delta variant. In DXY terms, a base above 96.000 is forming within a 93.366-144 band amidst a rebound in US Treasury yields and re-steepening along the curve following comments from Fed’s Bostic indicating a willingness to back faster QE tapering. Ahead, pending home sales and Dallas Fed business manufacturing along with more Fed rhetoric from Williams and chair Powell on the eve of month end. AUD/CAD/NZD - No surprise to see the high beta and risk sensitive currencies take advantage of the somewhat calmer conditions plus a recovery in crude and other commodities that were decimated by the prospect of depressed demand due to the aforementioned Omicron outbreak. The Aussie is back over 0.7150 vs its US counterpart, the Loonie has pared back losses from sub-1.2750 with assistance from WTI’s recovery to top Usd 72/brl vs a Usd 67.40 trough on November 26 and the Kiwi is hovering above 0.6800 even though RBNZ chief economist Ha has warned that a pause in OCR tightening could occur if the fresh COVID-19 wave proves to be a ‘game-changer’. JPY/EUR - The major laggards as sentiment stabilses, with the Yen midway between 112.99-113.88 parameters and hardly helped by mixed Japanese retail sales data, while the Euro has retreated below 1.1300 where 1.7 bn option expiry interest resides and a key Fib level just under the round number irrespective of strong German state inflation reports and encouraging pan Eurozone sentiment indicators, as more nations batten down the hatches to stem the spread of SA’s virus that has shown up in parts of the bloc. GBP/CHF - Both narrowly divergent vs the Dollar, as Cable retains 1.3300+ status against the backdrop of retreating Gilt and Short Sterling futures even though UK consumer credit, mortgage lending and approvals are rather conflicting, while the Franc pivots 0.9250 and meanders from 1.0426 to 1.0453 against the Euro after the latest weekly update on Swiss bank sight deposits showing no sign of official intervention. However, Usd/Chf may veer towards 1.1 bn option expiries at the 0.9275 strike if risk appetite continues to improve ahead of KoF on Tuesday and monthly reserves data. SCANDI/EM - Although Brent has bounced to the benefit of the Nok, Sek outperformance has ensued in wake of an upgrade to final Swedish Q3 GDP, while the Cnh and Cny are deriving support via a rise in Chinese industrial profits on a y/y basis and the Zar is breathing a sigh of relief on the aforementioned ‘better’ virus updates/assessments from SA on balance. Conversely, the Try is back under pressure post-a deterioration in Turkish economic sentiment vs smaller trade deficit as investors look forward to CPI at the end of the week. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan provides no reprieve for the Lira as he once again defending his unorthodox view that higher interest rates lead to higher inflation. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures consolidate following an overnight rebound – with WTI Jan back on a USD 71/bbl handle and Brent Feb just under USD 75/bbl – albeit still some way off from Friday's best levels which saw the former's high above USD 78/bbl and the latter's best north of USD 81/bbl. The week is packed with risks to the oil complex, including the resumption of Iranian nuclear talks (slated at 13:00GMT/08:00EST today) and the OPEC+ monthly confab. In terms of the former, little is expected in terms of progress unless the US agrees to adhere to Tehran's demand – which at this point seems unlikely. Tehran continues to seek the removal of US sanctions alongside assurances that the US will not withdraw from the deal. "The assertion that the US must 'change its approach if it wants progress' sets a challenging tone", Citi's analysts said, and the bank also expects parties to demand full access to Iranian nuclear facilities for verification of compliance. Further, the IAEA Chief met with Iranian officials last week; although concrete progress was sparse, the overall tone of the meeting was one of progress. "We remain of the opinion that additional Iranian supplies are unlikely to reach the market before the second half of 2022 at the earliest," Citi said. Meanwhile, reports suggested the US and allies have been debating a "Plan B" if talks were to collapse. NBC News – citing European diplomats, former US officials and experts – suggested that options included: 1) a skinny nuclear deal, 2) ramp up sanctions, 3) Launching operations to sabotage Iranian nuclear advances, 4) Military strikes, 5) persuading China to halt Iranian oil imports, albeit Iran and China recently signed a 25yr deal. Over to OPEC+, a rescheduling (in light of the Omicron variant) sees the OPEC and JTC meeting now on the 1st December, followed by the JMMC and OPEC+ on the 2nd. Sources on Friday suggested that members are leaning towards a pause in the planned monthly output, although Russian Deputy PM Novak hit the wires today and suggested there is no need for urgent measures in the oil market. Markets will likely be tested, and expectations massaged with several sources heading into the meeting later this week. Elsewhere, spot gold trades sideways just under the USD 1,800/oz and above a cluster of DMAs, including the 50 (1,790.60/oz), 200 (1,791.30/oz) and 100 (1,792.80/oz) awaiting the next catalyst. Over to base metals, LME copper recoups some of Friday's lost ground, with traders also citing the underlying demand emanating from the EV revolution. US Event Calendar 10am: Oct. Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -7.2% 10am: Oct. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 0.8%, prior -2.3% 10:30am: Nov. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 17.0, prior 14.6 Central Bank speakers: 3pm: Fed’s Williams gives opening remarks at NY Innovation Center 3:05pm: Powell Makes Opening Remarks at New York Fed Innovation Event 3:15pm: Fed’s Hassan moderates panel introducing NY Innovation Center 5:05pm: Fed’s Bowman Discusses Central bank and Indigenous Economies DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Last night Henry in my team put out a Q&A looking at what we know about Omicron (link here) as many risk assets put in their worst performance of the year on Friday after it exploded into view. The main reason for the widespread concern is the incredibly high number of mutations, with 32 on the spike protein specifically, which is the part of the virus that allows it to enter human cells. That’s much more than we’ve seen for previous variants, and raises the prospect it could be a more transmissible version of the virus, although scientists are still assessing this. South Africa is clearly where it has been discovered (not necessarily originated from) and where it has been spreading most. The fact that’s it’s become the dominant strain there in just two weeks hints at its higher level of contagiousness. However the read through to elsewhere is tough as the country has only fully vaccinated 24% of its population, relative to at least 68% in most of the larger developed countries bar the US which languishes at 58%. It could still prove less deadly (as virus variants over time mostly are) but if it is more contagious that could offset this and it could still cause similar healthcare issues, especially if vaccines are less protective. On the other hand the South African doctor who first alerted authorities to the unusual symptoms that have now been found to have been caused by Omicron, was on numerous media platforms over the weekend suggesting that the patients she has seen with it were exhausted but generally had mild symptoms. However she also said her patients were from a healthy cohort so we can’t relax too much on this. However as South African cases rise we will get a lot of clues from hospitalisation data even if only 6% of the country is over 65s. My personal view is that we’ll get a lot of information quite quickly around how bad this variant is. The reports over the weekend that numerous cases of Omicron have already been discovered around the world, suggests it’s probably more widespread than people think already. So we will likely soon learn whether these patients present with more severe illness and we’ll also learn of their vaccination status before any official study is out. The only caveat would be that until elderly patients have been exposed in enough scale we won’t be able to rule out the more negative scenarios. Before all that the level of restrictions have been significantly ramped up over the weekend in many countries. Henry discusses this in his note but one very significant one is that ALL travellers coming into (or back to) the UK will have to self isolate until they get a negative PCR test. This sort of thing will dramatically reduce travel, especially short business trips. Overnight Japan have effectively banned ALL foreign visitors. I appreciate its dangerous to be positive on covid at the moment but you only have to look at the UK for signs that boosters are doing a great job. Cases in the elderly population continue to collapse as the roll out progresses well and overall deaths have dropped nearly 20% over the last week to 121 (7-day average) - a tenth of where they were at the peak even though cases have recently been 80-90% of their peak levels. If Europe are just lagging the UK on boosters rather than anything more structural, most countries should be able to control the current wave all things being equal. However Omicron could make things less equal but it would be a huge surprise if vaccines made no impact. Stocks in Asia are trading cautiously but remember that the US and Europe sold off more aggressively after Asia closed on Friday. So the lack of major damage is insightful. The Nikkei (-0.02%), Shanghai Composite (-0.14%), CSI (-0.22%), KOSPI (-0.47%) and Hang Seng (-0.68%) are only slightly lower. Treasury yields, oil, and equity futures are all rising in Asia. US treasury yields are up 4-6bps across the curve, Oil is c.+4.5% higher, while the ZAR is +1.31%. Equity futures are trading higher with the S&P 500 (+0.71%) and DAX (+0.84%) futures in the green. In terms of looking ahead, we may be heading into December this week but there’s still an incredibly eventful period ahead on the market calendar even outside of Omicron. We have payrolls on Friday which could still have a big impact on what the Fed do at their important December 15 FOMC and especially on whether they accelerate the taper. Wednesday (Manufacturing) and Friday (Services) see the latest global PMIs which will as ever be closely watched even if people will suggest that the latest virus surge and now Omicron variant may make it backward looking. Elsewhere in the Euro Area, we’ll get the flash CPI estimate for November tomorrow (France and Italy on the same day with Germany today), and we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell as he testifies (with Mrs Yellen) before congressional committees tomorrow and Wednesday. There’s lots of other Fed speakers this week (ahead of their blackout from this coming weekend) and last week there was a definite shift towards a faster taper bias, even amongst the doves on the committee with Daly being the most important potential convert. Fed speakers this week might though have to balance the emergence of the new variant with the obvious point that without it the Fed is a fair bit behind the curve. Importantly but lurking in the background, Friday is also the US funding deadline before another government shutdown. History would suggest a tense last minute deal but it’s tough to predict. Recapping last week now and the emergence of the new variant reshaped the whole week even if ahead of this, continued case growth across Europe prompted renewed lockdown measures and travel bans across the continent. Risk sentiment clearly plummeted on Friday. The S&P 500 fell -2.27%, the biggest drop since October 2020, while the Stoxx 600 fell -3.67%, the biggest one-day decline since the original Covid-induced risk off in March 2020. The S&P 500 was -2.20% lower last week, while the Stoxx 600 was down -4.53% on the week. 10yr treasury, bund, and gilt yields declined -16.1bps, -8.7bps, and -14.5bps, undoing the inflation and policy response-driven selloff from earlier in the week. The drop in 10yr treasury and gilt yields were the biggest one-day declines since the original Covid-driven rally in March 2020, while the drop in bund yields was the largest since April 2020. 10yr treasury, bund, and gilt yields ended the week -7.3bps lower, +0.7bps higher, and -5.4bps lower, respectively. Measures of inflation compensation declined due to the anticipated hit to global demand, with 10yr breakevens in the US and Germany -6.8bps and -8.8bps lower Friday, along with Brent and WTI futures declining -11.55% and -13.06%, respectively. Investors pushed back the anticipated timing of rate hikes. As it stands, the first full Fed hike is just about priced for July, and 2 hikes are priced for 2022. This follows a hawkish tone from even the most dovish FOMC members and the November FOMC minutes last week. The prevailing sentiment was the FOMC was preparing to accelerate their asset purchase taper at the December meeting to enable inflation-fighting rate hikes earlier in 2022. Understanding the impact of the new variant will be crucial for interpreting the Fed’s reaction function, though. The impact may not be so obvious; while a new variant would certainly hurt global demand and portend more policy accommodation, it will also likely prompt more virus-avoiding behaviour in the labour market, preventing workers from returning to pre-Covid levels. Whether the Fed decides to accommodate these sidelined workers for longer, or to re-think what constitutes full employment in a Covid world should inform your view on whether they accelerate tapering in December. It feels like a lifetime ago but last week also saw President Biden nominate Chair Powell to head the Fed for another term, and for Governor Brainard to serve as Vice Chair. The announcement led to a selloff in rates as the more dovish Brainard did not land the head job. In Germany, the center-left SPD, Greens, and liberal FDP agreed to a full coalition deal. The traffic-light coalition agreed to restore the debt break in 2023, after being suspended during the pandemic, and to raise the minimum wage to €12 per hour. The SPD’s Olaf Scholz will assume the Chancellorship. The US, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and UK announced releases of strategic petroleum reserves. Oil prices were higher following the announcement, in part because releases were smaller than anticipated but, as mentioned, prices dropped precipitously on Friday on the global demand impact of the new Covid variant. The ECB released the minutes of the October Governing Council meeting, where officials stressed the need to maintain optionality in their policy setting. They acknowledged growing upside risks to inflation but stressed the importance of not overreacting in setting policy as they see how inflation scenarios might unfold. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/29/2021 - 08:01.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytNov 29th, 2021

The 100+ best early Cyber Monday deals to shop now: AirPods Pro, Instant Pot, Apple Watch, and more

Black Friday has ended, but you can shop early Cyber Monday deals now. Save big at Amazon, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Nordstrom, and more. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Alyssa Powell/InsiderWe're hours away from Cyber Monday — the even more explicitly online-focused version of Black Friday — and it's historically fetched some of the sales weekend's lowest prices. While it officially begins November 29, many retailers are holding early Cyber Monday sales or continuing Black Friday deals right now.Cyber Monday is a particularly great time to shop for tech, smart home, and gift cards — though stock is typically much more limited than Black Friday. Acting fast is key to getting a good deal, so it's important to know what you're shopping for ahead of time. Don't worry if you see the dreaded "out of stock" symbol — other retailers might have the product you wanted in stock with a similar deal, and we've seen discounts come back throughout the event, sometimes on the same day. To keep up with discounts without spending all day sleuthing, bookmark this page and check back throughout the day; we'll do the heavy lifting for you.At Insider Reviews, we test products all year and track their price history so we can give you solid buying advice during big shopping events like Cyber Monday. Tons of deals are available now on products we love and trust, and we're highlighting the best ones below.Best Cyber Monday 2021 tech dealsBeats Solo ProIf you’re a fan of the vibrant light blue these Solo Pro headphones come in, this is a nice price for a brand new pair. Down to $170, this isn’t a rare price for them by any means, but it’s a great value for what you’re getting.$184.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $299.95 | Save 38%$99.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $149.00 | Save 34%Apple AirPods ProThe Apple AirPods Pro look and sound better than previous-generation AirPods. Plus, they have noise cancellation built right into them and integrate perfectly with other Apple devices. $179.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $249.99 | Save 28%$189.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $249.99 | Save 24%$189.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $249.99 | Save 24%$159.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $249.00 | Save 36%$209.00 FROM B&HOriginally $249.00 | Save 16%Roku Streambar 2020Too much clutter under the TV? The interesting Roku Streambar combines all of the features of a Roku 4K player with a compact soundbar.$79.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$79.98 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$99.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $129.99 | Save 24%Google Nest Hub (2nd gen)The Google Nest Hub is a smart display with a unique Sleep Sensing feature to help you monitor your sleep habits. $49.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $99.99 | Save 50%$49.98 FROM WALMARTOriginally $99.98 | Save 50%$49.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 50%Apple Watch Series 7Much more than a timepiece, the Apple Watch can also be used for keeping track of workouts, making phone calls, sending text messages, setting timers and alarms, counting calories, and more.$379.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $399.00 | Save 5%$379.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $399.00 | Save 5%$399.00 FROM APPLEApple Watch SE (40mm, GPS)With a recent Apple processor and many of the same features as the Series 7, the Apple Watch SE is a great budget-friendly option.$219.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $279.00 | Save 21%$279.00 FROM APPLESamsung Galaxy Watch 4 (40mm)The Samsung Galaxy Watch 4 is the obvious choice for Android users looking for a comprehensive, quality, premium smartwatch experience. However, it's a shame that the ECG feature is limited specifically to Samsung phone owners. $199.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%$199.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%$199.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%MasterClass 2-for-1 membershipGet two MasterClass subscriptions for the price of one! Each subscription gets you access to all of MasterClass, so you can watch or sample unlimited celebrity and expert-led classes across a wide range of topics.$180.00 FROM MASTERCLASSOriginally $360.00 | Save 50%Sony WH-1000XM4Sony's WH-1000XM4 are our go-to pair of headphones when we look for a balance of sound quality and noise-cancelling performance.$248.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%$248.00 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%$249.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%Bose QuietComfort 45The QuietComfort 45 have a refreshed design with improved noise cancelling and better battery life.$279.00 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM BOSEOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%Apple AirPods (3rd Gen)Apple's third-generation AirPods offer longer battery life, a MagSafe charger, water resistance, and support for spatial audio. $169.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $179.00 | Save 5%$179.00 FROM APPLE$179.00 FROM BEST BUY$174.98 FROM WALMART$154.99 FROM MICRO CENTEROriginally $179.99 | Save 14%Apple Airpods (2nd Generation)You’ll need to pick up your pair from your local Micro Center, but this is a solid deal price for the second-generation Apple AirPods. You can often find them discounted as low as $120, making this extra $5 drop noteworthy. $104.99 FROM MICRO CENTEROriginally $129.99 | Save 19%$114.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 12%$114.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $129.99 | Save 12%$119.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $129.99 | Save 8%Apple MacBook Air (M1)The latest MacBook Air released in late 2020 gains Apple's new M1 processor, which brings impressively fast performance and long battery life, for under $1,000, making it the best Apple laptop overall.$899.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $999.99 | Save 10%$999.00 FROM APPLE$899.00 FROM B&HOriginally $999.00 | Save 10%Apple MacBook Pro with M1 Processor (13-inch, 8GB RAM, 256GB)Apple's latest MacBook Pro with the M1 processor is leaps and bounds beyond its predecessor, but the Intel MacBook Pro still has some tricks.$1199.00 FROM B&HOriginally $1299.00 | Save 8%$1299.00 FROM APPLELG 65-inch C1 OLED 4K TVLG’s C1 is one of the best 4K TVs you can buy. The OLED panel delivers incredible image quality with an infinite contrast ratio. This deal price matches the lowest we’ve seen so far.$1796.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $2499.98 | Save 28%$1796.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $2499.98 | Save 28%Samsung 65-inch Q60A QLED 4K TVSamsung's Q60A is the company's less expensive lineup of premium QLED TVs. $849.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $999.99 | Save 15%Amazon Fire TV 50" Omni SeriesAmazon launched its own smart TVs in fall 2021 and the Omni Series boasts features like hands-free Alexa support and video calling along with the latest Fire TV software.$359.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $509.99 | Save 29%Amazon Echo (4th Gen)The latest Echo speaker from Amazon takes on a spherical design for more effective room-filling audio. $59.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%$59.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%$59.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K MaxThe Fire TV Stick 4K is designed to be 40% more powerful than Fire TV Stick 4K. It also adds Wi-Fi 6 support.$34.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%$34.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%$34.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%Ring Video Doorbell (2020)The latest affordable Video Doorbell model from Ring features 1080p recording and improved motion tracking. It's a great deal if you're looking to start adding smart devices to your home. Orders made now will be fulfilled in 6 to 7 weeks.$79.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 20%Google Nest Cam Outdoor Battery (2021) Elegant design, reliable performance, and wireless battery power make the Nest Cam Outdoor a tempting option to add peace of mind and checking in on your home's exterior when you're away. $149.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $179.99 | Save 17%$149.99 FROM GOOGLEOriginally $179.99 | Save 17%$149.99 FROM BED BATH & BEYONDOriginally $179.99 | Save 17%$149.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $179.99 | Save 17%$198.00 FROM AMAZONAmazon All-New KindleThe Kindle allows users to download hundreds, if not thousands, of books straight to the device. This model has a front light that makes it better-suited for night time reading.$49.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $89.99 | Save 44%Vizio Elevate 5.1.4 SoundbarVizio's Elevate soundbar offers a 5.1.4 Dolby Atmos experience with performance that rivals many full-fledged home theater systems.$798.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $1099.99 | Save 27%$799.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $1099.99 | Save 27%Yamaha YAS-209 SoundbarYamaha's YAS-209 offers great sound, Amazon Alexa support, and well-balanced functionality for a reasonable price. $299.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $349.99 | Save 14%$299.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $349.95 | Save 14%Logitech C922x Pro Stream WebcamYou'll also want a decent webcam and mic if you want to be seen on screen, and provide commentary for your gaming.$74.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 25%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 20%GoPro Hero 10 BlackThis video and still camera has similar capabilities to larger variants, while maintaining the small go-anywhere form-factor it's known for.$349.98 FROM GOPROOriginally $499.99 | Save 30%Best Cyber Monday 2021 kitchen dealsNespresso Vertuo Next Deluxe Coffee and Espresso MakerA truly versatile machine, the Nespresso Vertuo Next uses capsules to make both coffee and espresso in a variety of cup or carafe sizes.$126.75 FROM TARGETOriginally $169.99 | Save 25%Breville Joule Sous VideThis nimble, compact machine heats water quickly, can work in a wide range of vessels, and is operated entirely through a helpful app.$159.94 FROM AMAZONOriginally $199.95 | Save 20%$159.96 FROM BREVILLEOriginally $199.95 | Save 20%Instant Pot Air Frying Lid, 6 QuartsIf you already own an Instant Pot and are looking to add air fryer functionality, this lid will do the trick. It's compatible with Smart Wi-Fi 60, Smart Bluetooth, Duo Evo Plus 6, Duo Evo Plus 60, Duo SV 60 or Max 60 models. $49.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $89.99 | Save 44%KitchenAid KFC3516ER 3.5 Cup Food ChopperThe KitchenAid KFC3516ER 3.5 Cup Food Chopper is ideal and convenient for small prepping needs. The size makes it easy to store away or keep on your counter, and the Cyber Monday price makes it easy on your wallet. $39.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $54.99 | Save 27%$39.99 FROM KITCHENAIDOriginally $54.99 | Save 27%Ninja Professional Plus Food ProcessorThe Ninja Professional Plus makes food prep fast and easy with presets for chopped vegetables, shredded cheese, more.$79.98 FROM KOHLSOriginally $119.99 | Save 33%DrinkMate Beverage Carbonation MakerIf you'd like to add fizz to more than just water, consider the Drinkmate Beverage Carbonation Maker, which can carbonate everything from juice to wine.$79.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $95.93 | Save 17%Ninja Foodi 5-in-1 Indoor Grill with Air Fryer, Roast, Bake & DehydrateThe Ninja Foodi 5-in-1 has five functions, including grill, bake, and dehydrate. Its temperatures range between 105°F to 500°F, giving it a lot of versatility in cooking options. Many of the parts are dishwasher safe for easier cleanup. $169.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $229.99 | Save 26%$199.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%Vitamix Explorian BlenderThe renewed Vitamix Explorian is pre-owned, but every bit as good as new and comes with a 90-day Amazon Renewed Guarantee on top of a 3-year full warranty.$289.95 FROM TARGETOriginally $449.99 | Save 36%$289.95 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $345.99 | Save 16%Instant Pot Duo Plus Pressure Cooker BundleThis bundle is a Target exclusive, and it includes an extra silicone egg rack and stainless steel steam rack for your pressure cooking needs. It’s only $60 right now — an excellent value for such a multifunctional kitchen appliance.$59.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 54%Our Place Always PanOur Place's Always Pan is multi-functional nonstick pan that's taken the internet by storm. It promises to replace eight different pieces of cookware in your kitchen. It can function as a steamer, saute pan, frying pan, and more. $99.00 FROM OUR PLACEOriginally $145.00 | Save 32%Cuisinart Chef's Classic 17-Piece Hard-Anodized Cookware SetThis nonstick set includes nine different pans, lids to match, and a steamer for a total of 17 pieces. $219.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $399.99 | Save 45%Keurig K-Mini Single Serve Coffee MakerThe slim 6- to 12-ounce coffee maker will fit neatly on any kitchen counter and save energy with the auto-off feature after brewing.$49.99 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $79.98 | Save 37%$89.99 FROM TARGETBest Cyber Monday 2021 home dealsEva-Dry Wireless Mini DehumidifierThis Eva-Dry dehumidifier measures 9 x 8.25 x 2.88 inches and works well for spaces up to 48 square feet. It uses silica beads to absorb moisture and has an absorbing capacity of six ounces. It’s also convenient because you only need to recharge it every four weeks. (It plugs into a wall outlet.)$14.97 FROM AMAZONOriginally $24.95 | Save 40%Molekule Air PurifierThis unit is popular among expert reviewers with its simple, portable design and quiet operation. We previously included the Molekule Air in our guide because it has multiple operation modes and can eradicate pollutants down to the nanoscopic level. However, at almost $800 plus $130 per year for filters, it's more than most people want to pay for an air purifier that isn't particularly powerful. We think there are better models at a lower price point.$479.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $799.00 | Save 40%$799.00 FROM MOLEKULEAeroGarden SproutA smaller option from AeroGarden's lineup, the Sprout lets you grow up to three plants in its narrow footprint. It's down to $70 with promo code SUMMER20 through May 31, a rare and excellent deal direct from AeroGarden.$49.95 FROM AEROGARDENOriginally $99.95 | Save 50%$49.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.95 | Save 50%Chewy Pet ProductsFor Cyber Monday, Chewy is offering $30 off purchases of $100 or more. This is only for select products, including food, treats, beds, and more.$70.00 FROM CHEWYOriginally $100.00 | Save 30%Dyson Outsize Absolute+The Dyson Outsize Absolute+ is ideal for whole home, deep cleaning with its full-size dustbin and large cleaner head. $799.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $899.99 | Save 11%Dyson V8 AbsoluteBuilt with a soft roller head for hard floors and a motorized cleaner head for carpets, the Dyson V8 Absolute handles all surfaces efficiently.$399.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $449.99 | Save 11%Dyson Cyclone V10 AbsoluteEquipped with a sensor to detect the difference between carpets and hard floors, the Cyclone V10 Absolute is the perfect vacuum cleaner for any room in the house. We've seen it go for as low as $350 before (it's usually $550), but during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, you'll get it for $400 while supplies last.$499.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $549.99 | Save 9%Drinkwell Two-Gallon Pet FountainThis two gallon pet drinking fountain is the perfect accessory to make sure your dog or cat (or both) are drinking enough water.$59.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $74.95 | Save 20%Eufy BoostIQ RoboVac 15C MAXQuiet, slim, and powerful, the eufy RoboVac 15C Max is a solid investment if you're looking for a robot vacuum. It's already very affordable at retail price, but you can also often find it on sale, making it an even better deal.$169.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $279.99 | Save 39%$169.99 FROM EUFYOriginally $249.99 | Save 32%iRobot Roomba i3+ (3550) Robot VacuumThe i3+ costs considerably more than your average robot vacuum, but it also does a lot more than the average robot vacuum. It develops personalized cleaning schedules and empties itself. $399.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM IROBOTOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $565.47 | Save 29%$399.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo T8 AIVI Robot VacuumThe  Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo Pro Mopping System thoroughly cleans floors as opposed to pushing a wet cloth around. When paired with the Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo T8 AIVI Robot Vacuum, the two make easy work of time-consuming chores.$499.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $749.99 | Save 33%$799.99 FROM BEST BUYBissell SpinWave Robot VacuumThe Bissell SpinWave Robot Vacuum picked up all the pet hair on carpet in our tests and has a great assortment of mop attachments and accessories. The company is also committed to helping homeless pets and helps them find loving homes. $249.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $399.99 | Save 38%$299.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $399.99 | Save 25%Dewalt Atomic 20-Volt Max Compact Drill/Impact Combo Kit This 20-Volt MAX Brushless Compact 2-Tool Combo Kit includes 1 cordless Drill/Driver, 1 cordless Impact Driver, two 20-Volt MAX Lithium Ion Batteries, 1 charger, and a carrying bag. $149.00 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $229.00 | Save 35%Best Cyber Monday 2021 gaming dealsNintendo Switch Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Digital Download)The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild was released for the Nintendo Switch in 2017, but still remains one of the best Switch games out there. Right now, a physical copy is selling for $40, which is a solid price on this rarely discounted game.$35.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%Nintendo Switch Fire Emblem: Three Houses"Fire Emblem: Three Houses" is a turn-based war strategy game that encourages you to build relationships with your soldiers and master your tactics on the battlefield. $35.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$35.00 FROM GAMESTOPOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$35.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$59.99 FROM BEST BUYNintendo eShop $50 Gift CardThe Nintendo eShop is the best place to shop for digital copies of Nintendo's games. This gift card is the perfect gift or investment for anyone with a Nintendo Switch. Better still, Nintendo's eShop offers several sales throughout the year. This means, patient shoppers can double their savings.$45.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $50.00 | Save 10%$50.00 FROM BEST BUY$45.00 FROM NEWEGGOriginally $50.00 | Save 10%Xbox Game Pass for PC (3-Month Membership)Typically, you can get a 3-month Game Pass subscription for $30. Right now, it's only $20, a solid deal. This is the PC version, which gets you EA Play, exclusive member discounts, and unlimited to access to over 100 games. $1.00 FROM MICROSOFTOriginally $29.99 | Save 97%$19.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $29.99 | Save 33%$19.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $29.99 | Save 33%PlayStation Plus 12-Month SubscriptionPlayStation Plus allows gamers to play online, nets them special discounts in the PlayStation Network store, and subscribers get free games each month that remain available as long as the PlayStation Plus subscription is active. $36.99 FROM CDKEYSOriginally $59.99 | Save 38%$39.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%$39.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%Microsoft Xbox Series S|X Wireless ControllerThis latest-gen Xbox gamepad is the best Microsoft has ever made, and during Cyber Monday, shoppers can save $20 on this recently released controller.$49.99 FROM MICROSOFTOriginally $59.99 | Save 17%$54.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 8%$49.00 FROM GAME STOPOriginally $54.99 | Save 11%$52.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 12%Death Loop for PlayStation 5“Death Loop” is an unusual first-person shooter that challenges players to escape a day-long time loop by assassinating specific targets. The game is a great pick for fans of spy movies, sci-fi, and creative gunplay.$29.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%Call of Duty Vanguard for PlayStation 4The latest Call of Duty game is now on sale for $20 off, just a few weeks after its release.$39.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 35%$44.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $59.99 | Save 25%Call of Duty Vanguard for PlayStation 5The latest Call of Duty game is now on sale for $15 off for PlayStation 5 just a few weeks after its release.$54.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $69.98 | Save 21%Nintendo Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit Nintendo Switch Set EditionYou can use a Nintendo Switch to control this real-life Mario Kart toy, and watch Mario or Luigi’s perspective as they zoom around your home.$88.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $99.99 | Save 11%$99.99 FROM BEST BUYLogitech G305 Lightspeed Wireless Gaming MouseCompact and portable, the Logitech G305 is great to take on the go. It's best if you prefer smaller mice and right now it's only $40, a great price drop from a typical selling price of $50.$29.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%$29.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $48.97 | Save 39%Nintendo Switch Ring Fit Adventure"Ring Fit Adventure" for the Nintendo Switch uses the exclusive "Ring-Con" attachment and a leg strap to track movement and provide resistance for workouts. The game also includes an adventure mode. Right now, it's selling for $55 at Target and Amazon, $25 off its usual price and the lowest price we've ever seen on this game.$54.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $79.98 | Save 32%$54.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $80.00 | Save 33%$79.98 FROM BEST BUY$79.98 FROM TARGETBest Cyber Monday 2021 streaming dealsHulu Monthly Subscription (Deal)Save a huge 85% on an ad-supported Hulu subscription for an entire year. That amounts to just 99 cents per month. This deal is live until Monday, November 29. $0.99 FROM HULUOriginally $6.99 | Save 86%Philo TVIf you want your streaming service to cost less per month than a single trip for the family to Starbucks, Philo TV is made with you in mind.$5.00 FROM PHILOOriginally $25.00 | Save 80%Disney Plus Free Trial with Amazon Music UnlimitedNew Amazon Music Unlimited subscribers can get six months of Disney Plus for free when they sign up. Current Music Unlimited members can get three months of Disney Plus. Music Unlimited costs $8 a month for Prime members or $10 a month without Prime.$0.00 FROM AMAZONAmazon Prime Video Channel Add-OnsPrime Video subscribers can choose from a variety of channel-add ons including Starz, Showtime, Paramount+, AMC+, Discovery+, and more.$0.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $10.99 | Save 91%YouTube PremiumYouTube Premium lets you stream videos and music on YouTube without any ads. The service also features exclusive programs.FREE FROM YOUTUBEOriginally $11.99 | Save 100%Best Cyber Monday 2021 health & fitness dealsTheragun PROThe Theragun Pro is our top pick: a powerful, customizable, and durable massager that's worth every bit of its $600 price tag. $399.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.00 FROM THERABODYOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%Fitbit LuxeThe Fitbit Luxe is the company's latest fitness band that comes with a sleek design and advanced health features like stress management and the ability to measure heart rate variation.$99.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $149.99 | Save 33%$99.95 FROM FITBITOriginally $149.94 | Save 33%$99.95 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $149.94 | Save 33%Fitbit Charge 4The Charge 4 hits a budget-friendly price point while offering stellar activity tracking in a smaller footprint than a smartwatch.$135.94 FROM AMAZONOriginally $149.94 | Save 9%$69.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $149.94 | Save 54%Mirror from lululemonThis isn't just a mirror. It's a cardio class, it's a yoga studio, it's a boxing ring, it's your new personal trainer, and it's so much more. For Cyber Monday, Mirror is on sale for $500 with the code "CYBERMONDAY20"$995.00 FROM MIRROROriginally $1495.00 | Save 33%Hydro Flask 32-Ounce Wide Mouth This bottle has all the hallmark features of a Hydro Flask water bottle — 12-24 hours of temperature retention, powder color coating that won't chip or fade with time, a silicone twist top — with the very convenient wide mouth for easy pouring and drinking.$33.71 FROM HYDRO FLASKOriginally $44.95 | Save 25%Amazon HaloAmazon's Halo fitness tracker can analyze the tone of your voice to help you understand how you sound to others.$54.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 45%LifeSpan TR1200i Folding TreadmillThe TR1200i is the baby sister of our top pick for a folding treadmill, the TR300i, with fewer built-in training programs and fewer fancy features like manual instead of digital buttons. But it's nearly the same size, has the same motor, and the same shock absorption — but for significantly cheaper.$899.00 FROM LIFESPANOriginally $1199.00 | Save 25%Best Cyber Monday 2021 style & beauty dealsDyson Airwrap Complete StylerDyson Airwrap Complete Styler is engineered for multiple hair types and styles. Featuring Coanda air styling and propelled by the Dyson digital motor, users can curl, wave, smooth and dry with no extreme heat.$399.99 FROM NEW EGGOriginally $499.99 | Save 20%$549.95 FROM DYSON$549.99 FROM BEST BUY$549.00 FROM AMAZONL.L.Bean Wicked Good Slippers - Men'sThis shearling-lined, leather-bottom slipper is one of the best men's slippers we've ever tried.$75.65 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $89.00 | Save 15%L.L.Bean Wicked Good Shearling-Lined Slides - Women'sThese ridiculously-cozy, shearling-lined slides are easy to slip on and off, and keep your feet toasty around the house.$67.15 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $79.00 | Save 15%L.L.Bean Toddlers' Wicked Good SlippersEverything we love about L.L.Bean's Wicked Good Slippers — but mini. These shearling-lined, leather-soled booties will keep kid's feet, sizes 3-10, toasty around the house and in a stroller.$33.96 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $39.95 | Save 15%Lululemon Hooded Define JacketA fan-favorite, now with a hood. Between the technical fabric and a do-anything fit, it's easy to see why this one's a hit. Right now you can save up to 50% on this versatile piece, but sizes are selling out quickly. $64.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $128.00 | Save 50%Lululemon Wunder Under High-Rise TightLululemon is, in many ways, the genesis of athleisure, so it's not surprising that the company has an edge in the space.$69.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $98.00 | Save 30%Lululemon Metal Vent Breathe Short SleeveLululemon Metal Vent Breathe Short Sleeve $49.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $78.00 | Save 37%Bombas Women's Gripper Slipper (Sherpa Lined) 2-PackA mix between socks and slippers, Bombas' Gripper Slippers include a cozy sherpa lining and sole grippers to prevent slips. $72.95 FROM BOMBASOriginally $96.00 | Save 24%Columbia Men's Lake 22 Down Hooded JacketThis water-resistant jacket is stocked with 650-fill power down insulation, zippered hand pockets, and a structured hood to keep you zipped up and toasty through any winter weather.$69.98 FROM COLUMBIAOriginally $140.00 | Save 50%Adidas Climacool VentoThe Adidas Climacool Vento features a highly breathable mesh upper to help keep your feet cool.$98.00 FROM ADIDASOriginally $140.00 | Save 30%Nike Adapt Auto MaxThe Nike Adapt Auto Max uses advanced technology to automatically form to your foot without laces.$259.98 FROM NIKEOriginally $400.00 | Save 35%Nike Space Hippie 01The Nike Space Hippie 01 is made from 50% recycled materials and features a lightweight, track-inspired look.$77.56 FROM NIKEOriginally $130.00 | Save 40%Crocs Classic Clog (Unisex)The shoe that really started it all, the Classic Clog is comfortable, breathable, and easy to slip on whenever. With over 20 fun colors to choose from, you can’t go wrong.$39.99 FROM CROCSOriginally $49.99 | Save 20%$27.55 FROM AMAZONDagne Dover Indi Diaper BackpackDagne Dover's Indi Diaper Backpack adds a stylish neutral flair while holding every basic essential.$160.00 FROM DAGNE DOVEROriginally $200.00 | Save 20%Everlane Glove Boot ReKnitEverlane's Glove Boot is a sleek boot made with stretchy, sustainable knit fabric and a walkable heel for all-day comfort. $46.00 FROM EVERLANEOriginally $115.00 | Save 60%OutdoorVoices The Exercise DressOutdoorVoices makes a few of our favorite athleisure items, and they're another example of a company that can balance form and function.$75.00 FROM OUTDOORVOICESOriginally $100.00 | Save 25%Rough Linen St. Barts Linen RobeThe Rough Linen St. Barts Robe is made from top-notch linen that offers a light feel and a cool, casual look.$131.93 FROM ROUGH LINENOriginally $167.00 | Save 21%Kiehl's Since 1851 Avocado Nourishing Hydration MaskWinter is coming, and Kiehls' Avocado Mask is here to provide your skin with hydration all season long. This nourishing treatment infuses your face with avocado and evening primrose oils, offering sumptuous moisture after just one use. Plus, it's green tint is a total throwback. You can save 50% on a jar during Black Friday sale. $21.50 FROM MACY'SOriginally $45.00 | Save 52%Giorgio Armani Lip Magnet Liquid LipstickA liquid lip color that gives you a super matte look, but it's so light it feels like a lip stain. The formula is highly pigmented, smudge-resistant, and comfortable on your lips.$19.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $38.00 | Save 50%Nike Sportswear Essential Fleece PantsMade from soft fleece material, these sweats are perfect for everyday comfort.$48.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $60.00 | Save 20%Thread & Supply Double Breasted PeacoatThis peacoat from Thread & Supply is a classic with a twist. The oversized buttons extend up the lapel to the collar, giving you the option to bundle up if necessary. And if you don't love it in black, never fear — you can save 31% on this coat in black, camel, or light gray. $39.90 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $58.00 | Save 31%True & Co. True Body Triangle Convertible Strap BraletteThe convertible straps on this wireless bra can be worn either straight or crisscrossed, and the smooth material appears invisible under clothes.$30.80 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $44.00 | Save 30%Spanx Faux Leather LeggingsMade with the same level of support as its signature shapewear but with a little extra stretch, these leggings are designed to not only make you look great but feel great, too. $78.40 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $98.00 | Save 20%$78.40 FROM SPANX Originally $98.00 | Save 20%Lululemon Wunder Under High-Rise TightLululemon is, in many ways, the genesis of athleisure, so it's not surprising that the company has an edge in the space.$69.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $98.00 | Save 30%Chaps Mens Long Sleeve Button DownMade from an easy-to-care-for cotton blend and a dose of stretch, this men's button-down shirt will keep you looking polished all day.$19.98 FROM WALMARTOriginally $60.00 | Save 67%Nine West Car Coat CardiganThi cozy topper is part coat, part cardigan, and will keep you warm all winter. Save an extra 15% on this cardigan with the code ENJOY15 at checkout.$35.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $60.00 | Save 40%When is Cyber Monday?Cyber Monday falls on the Monday after Black Friday every year. In 2021, the shopping event will land on November 29.As a continuation of sorts to Black Friday, Cyber Monday gives shoppers another opportunity to save on tech, home goods, clothing, and more that you might've missed while digesting Thanksgiving dinner. Unlike Black Friday, though, Cyber Monday is entirely online.What time does Cyber Monday start?Cyber Monday officially begins at 12 a.m. ET on November 29. That said, the event is expected to carry over many deals from Black Friday, so some discounts are already available.What is Cyber Monday?Cyber Monday began as the online version of Black Friday, where online retailers offered big discounts to match their brick-and-mortar counterparts. Now, Cyber Monday is one of the biggest shopping days of the year, often surpassing even Black Friday in terms of revenue and sales. Previously, the main distinction between Black Friday and Cyber Monday was that Black Friday focused on in-store sales and Cyber Monday on online sales. But as shopping habits have increasingly favored the internet, shoppers can look forward to a very online-focused Cyber Monday and Black Friday. Cyber Monday offers a great opportunity to save on all your holiday gifts. How long do Cyber Monday sales last? Though Cyber Monday sales once took place on Monday only, we've seen them extend to longer and longer durations, with a handful lasting through the rest of the week. However, the best discounts we see are in limited supply and expire soon after they become available.What's better, Black Friday or Cyber Monday?With more and more buyers shopping online, the debate over which shopping holiday wins, is practically moot. Both events will be held predominantly online, and more than a few deals overlap. In fact, many Black Friday deals become Cyber Monday deals when the dates change. If possible, buyers should shop on both holidays. We've seen different products receive better discounts on each day, and the deals that each retailer offers will vary. Generally speaking, consumers shopping for big-ticket items, such as laptops, TVs, and kitchen appliances, can expect more opportunities on Black Friday. Shoppers looking for last year's models, smart home gadgets, digital subscriptions, and gift cards will likely find more luck during Cyber Monday.What should I buy during Cyber Monday?If a retailer offers Black Friday deals, it's a near guarantee that it will offer Cyber Monday deals, too. Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Walmart are some noteworthy retailers that we know will participate in the shopping event, with deals across many product categories.We will likely see massive discounts on some of our favorite direct-to-consumer products during Cyber Monday, such as retail startups like Leesa and Brooklinen. For some online stores, Cyber Monday (or Cyber Week) will be one of the few times of the year when their products see major markdowns.Will there be Cyber Monday shipping delays?Shipping delays and shopping holidays are inextricably linked, so there's always a risk of late deliveries.To help you avoid the shipping crunch and get your stuff sooner, several retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Best Buy, offer in-store pickup and contactless curbside pickup. This means shoppers can grab their orders at a nearby location, provided that the retailer has it in stock. Best Cyber Monday deals we saw last yearLast year, we saw a lot of great sales on Cyber Monday ranging from sitewide discounts to specific products. Everything from home and kitchen, to subscription services were on sale during last year's annual savings event.Here are a few of the best Cyber Monday deals from 2020.  Philips Sonicare DiamondClean Classic Rechargeable Electric Toothbrush was $179 from Kohl's, originally $229.FujiFilm Instax Mini 11 Camera Bundle was $70 from Kohl's on Cyber Monday last year, originally $120.Keurig K-Supreme Single Serve K-Cup Pod Coffee Maker was $84 from Target on Cyber Monday last year, originally $140.How we select the best Cyber Monday dealsWe only choose products that meet our high standard of coverage, and that we've either used ourselves or researched carefully.We compare the prices among top retailers such as Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Walmart and only include the deals that are better than all others offered (not including promotional discounts that come from using certain credit cards).All deals are at least 20% off, with the occasional exception for products that are rarely discounted or provide an outsized value.Read more about how the Insider Reviews team evaluates deals and why you should trust us.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 28th, 2021

100+ early Cyber Monday deals you can shop now: AirPods Pro, Roku, Vitamix, and more

Black Friday has ended, but you can shop early Cyber Monday deals now. Save big at Amazon, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Nordstrom, and more. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Alyssa Powell/InsiderCyber Monday is the online shopping-focused sibling to Black Friday, and the event brings equally great discounts and sales straight to you. It's going live on November 29, but many retailers are holding early Cyber Monday sales or continuing Black Friday deals through the weekend.Historically, the event has always been a great time to shop for tech, smart home, and gift cards — though stock is typically very limited. Acting fast is key to getting a good deal, so it's important to know what you're shopping for ahead of time. Don't worry if you see the dreaded "out of stock" symbol — other retailers might have the product you wanted in stock with a similar deal, and we've seen discounts come back throughout the event, sometimes on the same day.At Insider Reviews, we test products all year and track their price history so we can give you solid buying advice during big shopping events like Cyber Monday. Tons of deals are available now on products we love and trust, and we're highlighting the best ones below.The best Cyber Monday deals available nowBest Cyber Monday 2021 tech dealsApple AirPods ProThe Apple AirPods Pro look and sound better than previous-generation AirPods. Plus, they have noise cancellation built right into them and integrate perfectly with other Apple devices. $159.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $249.99 | Save 36%$189.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $249.99 | Save 24%$189.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $249.99 | Save 24%$159.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $249.00 | Save 36%$209.00 FROM B&HOriginally $249.00 | Save 16%Roku Streambar 2020Too much clutter under the TV? The interesting Roku Streambar combines all of the features of a Roku 4K player with a compact soundbar.$79.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$79.98 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$99.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $129.99 | Save 24%Google Nest Hub (2nd gen)The Google Nest Hub is a smart display with a unique Sleep Sensing feature to help you monitor your sleep habits. $49.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $99.99 | Save 50%$49.98 FROM WALMARTOriginally $99.98 | Save 50%$49.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 50%Apple Watch Series 7Much more than a timepiece, the Apple Watch can also be used for keeping track of workouts, making phone calls, sending text messages, setting timers and alarms, counting calories, and more.$379.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $399.00 | Save 5%$379.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $399.00 | Save 5%$399.00 FROM APPLEApple Watch SE (40mm, GPS)With a recent Apple processor and many of the same features as the Series 7, the Apple Watch SE is a great budget-friendly option.$219.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $279.00 | Save 21%$279.00 FROM APPLEOriginally $279.00 | Save 0%Samsung Galaxy Watch 4 (40mm)The Samsung Galaxy Watch 4 is the obvious choice for Android users looking for a comprehensive, quality, premium smartwatch experience. However, it's a shame that the ECG feature is limited specifically to Samsung phone owners. $199.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $279.99 | Save 29%$199.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%$199.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%MasterClass 2-for-1 membershipGet two MasterClass subscriptions for the price of one! Each subscription gets you access to all of MasterClass, so you can watch or sample unlimited celebrity and expert-led classes across a wide range of topics.$180.00 FROM MASTERCLASSOriginally $360.00 | Save 50%Sony WH-1000XM4Sony's WH-1000XM4 are our go-to pair of headphones when we look for a balance of sound quality and noise-cancelling performance.$248.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%$248.00 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%$249.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%Bose QuietComfort 45The QuietComfort 45 have a refreshed design with improved noise cancelling and better battery life.$279.00 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM BOSEOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%Apple AirPods (3rd Gen)Apple's third-generation AirPods offer longer battery life, a MagSafe charger, water resistance, and support for spatial audio. $149.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $179.00 | Save 16%$179.00 FROM APPLE$179.00 FROM BEST BUY$174.98 FROM WALMART$154.99 FROM MICRO CENTEROriginally $179.99 | Save 14%Apple Airpods (2nd Generation)You’ll need to pick up your pair from your local Micro Center, but this is a solid deal price for the second-generation Apple AirPods. You can often find them discounted as low as $120, making this extra $5 drop noteworthy. $104.99 FROM MICRO CENTEROriginally $129.99 | Save 19%$114.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 12%$109.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $129.99 | Save 16%$119.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $129.99 | Save 8%Apple MacBook Air (M1)The latest MacBook Air released in late 2020 gains Apple's new M1 processor, which brings impressively fast performance and long battery life, for under $1,000, making it the best Apple laptop overall.$899.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $999.99 | Save 10%$999.00 FROM APPLE$899.00 FROM B&HOriginally $999.00 | Save 10%Apple MacBook Pro with M1 Processor (13-inch, 8GB RAM, 256GB)Apple's latest MacBook Pro with the M1 processor is leaps and bounds beyond its predecessor, but the Intel MacBook Pro still has some tricks.$1199.00 FROM B&HOriginally $1299.00 | Save 8%$1299.00 FROM APPLELG 65-inch C1 OLED 4K TVLG’s C1 is one of the best 4K TVs you can buy. The OLED panel delivers incredible image quality with an infinite contrast ratio. This deal price matches the lowest we’ve seen so far.$1796.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $2499.98 | Save 28%$1796.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $2499.98 | Save 28%Samsung 65-inch Q60A QLED 4K TVSamsung's Q60A is the company's less expensive lineup of premium QLED TVs. $849.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $999.99 | Save 15%Amazon Fire TV 50" Omni SeriesAmazon launched its own smart TVs in fall 2021 and the Omni Series boasts features like hands-free Alexa support and video calling along with the latest Fire TV software.$359.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $509.99 | Save 29%Amazon Echo (4th Gen)The latest Echo speaker from Amazon takes on a spherical design for more effective room-filling audio. $59.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%$59.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%$59.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K MaxThe Fire TV Stick 4K is designed to be 40% more powerful than Fire TV Stick 4K. It also adds Wi-Fi 6 support.$34.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%$34.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%$34.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%Ring Video Doorbell (2020)The latest affordable Video Doorbell model from Ring features 1080p recording and improved motion tracking. It's a great deal if you're looking to start adding smart devices to your home. Orders made now will be fulfilled in 6 to 7 weeks.$79.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 20%Google Nest Cam Outdoor Battery (2021) Elegant design, reliable performance, and wireless battery power make the Nest Cam Outdoor a tempting option to add peace of mind and checking in on your home's exterior when you're away. $149.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $179.99 | Save 17%$198.00 FROM AMAZON$149.99 FROM GOOGLEOriginally $179.99 | Save 17%$149.99 FROM BED BATH & BEYONDOriginally $179.99 | Save 17%$149.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $179.99 | Save 17%Amazon All-New KindleThe Kindle allows users to download hundreds, if not thousands, of books straight to the device. This model has a front light that makes it better-suited for night time reading.$49.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $89.99 | Save 44%Vizio Elevate 5.1.4 SoundbarVizio's Elevate soundbar offers a 5.1.4 Dolby Atmos experience with performance that rivals many full-fledged home theater systems.$798.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $1099.99 | Save 27%$799.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $1099.99 | Save 27%Yamaha YAS-209 SoundbarYamaha's YAS-209 offers great sound, Amazon Alexa support, and well-balanced functionality for a reasonable price. $299.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $349.99 | Save 14%$299.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $349.95 | Save 14%Logitech C922x Pro Stream WebcamYou'll also want a decent webcam and mic if you want to be seen on screen, and provide commentary for your gaming.$74.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 25%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 20%GoPro Hero 10 BlackThis video and still camera has similar capabilities to larger variants, while maintaining the small go-anywhere form-factor it's known for.$349.98 FROM GOPROOriginally $499.99 | Save 30%Best Cyber Monday 2021 kitchen dealsNespresso Vertuo Next Deluxe Coffee and Espresso MakerA truly versatile machine, the Nespresso Vertuo Next uses capsules to make both coffee and espresso in a variety of cup or carafe sizes.$126.75 FROM TARGETOriginally $169.99 | Save 25%Breville Joule Sous VideThis nimble, compact machine heats water quickly, can work in a wide range of vessels, and is operated entirely through a helpful app.$159.94 FROM AMAZONOriginally $199.95 | Save 20%$159.96 FROM BREVILLEOriginally $199.95 | Save 20%Instant Pot Air Frying Lid, 6 QuartsIf you already own an Instant Pot and are looking to add air fryer functionality, this lid will do the trick. It's compatible with Smart Wi-Fi 60, Smart Bluetooth, Duo Evo Plus 6, Duo Evo Plus 60, Duo SV 60 or Max 60 models. $49.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $89.99 | Save 44%KitchenAid KFC3516ER 3.5 Cup Food ChopperThe KitchenAid KFC3516ER 3.5 Cup Food Chopper is ideal and convenient for small prepping needs. The size makes it easy to store away or keep on your counter, and the Cyber Monday price makes it easy on your wallet. $39.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $54.99 | Save 27%$39.99 FROM KITCHENAIDOriginally $54.99 | Save 27%Ninja Professional Plus Food ProcessorThe Ninja Professional Plus makes food prep fast and easy with presets for chopped vegetables, shredded cheese, more.$79.98 FROM KOHLSOriginally $119.99 | Save 33%DrinkMate Beverage Carbonation MakerIf you'd like to add fizz to more than just water, consider the Drinkmate Beverage Carbonation Maker, which can carbonate everything from juice to wine.$79.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $95.93 | Save 17%Ninja Foodi 5-in-1 Indoor Grill with Air Fryer, Roast, Bake & DehydrateThe Ninja Foodi 5-in-1 has five functions, including grill, bake, and dehydrate. Its temperatures range between 105°F to 500°F, giving it a lot of versatility in cooking options. Many of the parts are dishwasher safe for easier cleanup. $199.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $229.99 | Save 13%$199.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%Vitamix Explorian BlenderThe renewed Vitamix Explorian is pre-owned, but every bit as good as new and comes with a 90-day Amazon Renewed Guarantee on top of a 3-year full warranty.$289.95 FROM TARGETOriginally $449.99 | Save 36%$289.95 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $345.99 | Save 16%Instant Pot Duo Plus Pressure Cooker BundleThis bundle is a Target exclusive, and it includes an extra silicone egg rack and stainless steel steam rack for your pressure cooking needs. It’s only $60 right now — an excellent value for such a multifunctional kitchen appliance.$59.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 54%Our Place Always PanOur Place's Always Pan is multi-functional nonstick pan that's taken the internet by storm. It promises to replace eight different pieces of cookware in your kitchen. It can function as a steamer, saute pan, frying pan, and more. $99.00 FROM OUR PLACEOriginally $145.00 | Save 32%Cuisinart Chef's Classic 17-Piece Hard-Anodized Cookware SetThis nonstick set includes nine different pans, lids to match, and a steamer for a total of 17 pieces. $219.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $399.99 | Save 45%Keurig K-Mini Single Serve Coffee MakerThe slim 6- to 12-ounce coffee maker will fit neatly on any kitchen counter and save energy with the auto-off feature after brewing.$89.99 FROM TARGET$49.99 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $79.98 | Save 37%Best Cyber Monday 2021 home dealsEva-Dry Wireless Mini DehumidifierThis Eva-Dry dehumidifier measures 9 x 8.25 x 2.88 inches and works well for spaces up to 48 square feet. It uses silica beads to absorb moisture and has an absorbing capacity of six ounces. It’s also convenient because you only need to recharge it every four weeks. (It plugs into a wall outlet.)$14.97 FROM AMAZONOriginally $24.95 | Save 40%Molekule Air PurifierThis unit is popular among expert reviewers with its simple, portable design and quiet operation. We previously included the Molekule Air in our guide because it has multiple operation modes and can eradicate pollutants down to the nanoscopic level. However, at almost $800 plus $130 per year for filters, it's more than most people want to pay for an air purifier that isn't particularly powerful. We think there are better models at a lower price point.$479.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $799.00 | Save 40%$799.00 FROM MOLEKULEAeroGarden SproutA smaller option from AeroGarden's lineup, the Sprout lets you grow up to three plants in its narrow footprint. It's down to $70 with promo code SUMMER20 through May 31, a rare and excellent deal direct from AeroGarden.$49.95 FROM AEROGARDENOriginally $99.95 | Save 50%$49.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.95 | Save 50%Chewy Pet ProductsFor Cyber Monday, Chewy is offering $30 off purchases of $100 or more. This is only for select products, including food, treats, beds, and more.$70.00 FROM CHEWYOriginally $100.00 | Save 30%Dyson Outsize Absolute+The Dyson Outsize Absolute+ is ideal for whole home, deep cleaning with its full-size dustbin and large cleaner head. $799.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $899.99 | Save 11%Dyson V8 AbsoluteBuilt with a soft roller head for hard floors and a motorized cleaner head for carpets, the Dyson V8 Absolute handles all surfaces efficiently.$399.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $449.99 | Save 11%Dyson Cyclone V10 AbsoluteEquipped with a sensor to detect the difference between carpets and hard floors, the Cyclone V10 Absolute is the perfect vacuum cleaner for any room in the house. We've seen it go for as low as $350 before (it's usually $550), but during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, you'll get it for $400 while supplies last.$499.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $549.99 | Save 9%Drinkwell Two-Gallon Pet FountainThis two gallon pet drinking fountain is the perfect accessory to make sure your dog or cat (or both) are drinking enough water.$59.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $74.95 | Save 20%Eufy BoostIQ RoboVac 15C MAXQuiet, slim, and powerful, the eufy RoboVac 15C Max is a solid investment if you're looking for a robot vacuum. It's already very affordable at retail price, but you can also often find it on sale, making it an even better deal.$169.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $279.99 | Save 39%$169.99 FROM EUFYOriginally $249.99 | Save 32%iRobot Roomba i3+ (3550) Robot VacuumThe i3+ costs considerably more than your average robot vacuum, but it also does a lot more than the average robot vacuum. It develops personalized cleaning schedules and empties itself. $399.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM IROBOTOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $565.47 | Save 29%$399.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo T8 AIVI Robot VacuumThe  Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo Pro Mopping System thoroughly cleans floors as opposed to pushing a wet cloth around. When paired with the Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo T8 AIVI Robot Vacuum, the two make easy work of time-consuming chores.$499.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $749.99 | Save 33%$799.99 FROM BEST BUYBissell SpinWave Robot VacuumThe Bissell SpinWave Robot Vacuum picked up all the pet hair on carpet in our tests and has a great assortment of mop attachments and accessories. The company is also committed to helping homeless pets and helps them find loving homes. $249.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $399.99 | Save 38%$299.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $399.99 | Save 25%Dewalt Atomic 20-Volt Max Compact Drill/Impact Combo Kit This 20-Volt MAX Brushless Compact 2-Tool Combo Kit includes 1 cordless Drill/Driver, 1 cordless Impact Driver, two 20-Volt MAX Lithium Ion Batteries, 1 charger, and a carrying bag. $149.00 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $229.00 | Save 35%Best Cyber Monday 2021 gaming dealsNintendo Switch Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Digital Download)The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild was released for the Nintendo Switch in 2017, but still remains one of the best Switch games out there. Right now, a physical copy is selling for $40, which is a solid price on this rarely discounted game.$35.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%Nintendo Switch Fire Emblem: Three Houses"Fire Emblem: Three Houses" is a turn-based war strategy game that encourages you to build relationships with your soldiers and master your tactics on the battlefield. $35.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$35.00 FROM GAMESTOPOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$35.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$59.99 FROM BEST BUYNintendo eShop $50 Gift CardThe Nintendo eShop is the best place to shop for digital copies of Nintendo's games. This gift card is the perfect gift or investment for anyone with a Nintendo Switch. Better still, Nintendo's eShop offers several sales throughout the year. This means, patient shoppers can double their savings.$45.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $50.00 | Save 10%$50.00 FROM BEST BUY$45.00 FROM NEWEGGOriginally $50.00 | Save 10%Xbox Game Pass for PC (3-Month Membership)Typically, you can get a 3-month Game Pass subscription for $30. Right now, it's only $20, a solid deal. This is the PC version, which gets you EA Play, exclusive member discounts, and unlimited to access to over 100 games. $1.00 FROM MICROSOFTOriginally $29.99 | Save 97%$19.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $29.99 | Save 33%$19.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $29.99 | Save 33%PlayStation Plus 12-Month SubscriptionPlayStation Plus allows gamers to play online, nets them special discounts in the PlayStation Network store, and subscribers get free games each month that remain available as long as the PlayStation Plus subscription is active. $36.99 FROM CDKEYSOriginally $59.99 | Save 38%$39.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%$39.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%Microsoft Xbox Series S|X Wireless ControllerThis latest-gen Xbox gamepad is the best Microsoft has ever made, and during Cyber Monday, shoppers can save $20 on this recently released controller.$49.99 FROM MICROSOFTOriginally $59.99 | Save 17%$54.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 8%$49.00 FROM GAME STOPOriginally $54.99 | Save 11%$52.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 12%Death Loop for PlayStation 5“Death Loop” is an unusual first-person shooter that challenges players to escape a day-long time loop by assassinating specific targets. The game is a great pick for fans of spy movies, sci-fi, and creative gunplay.$29.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%Call of Duty Vanguard for PlayStation 4The latest Call of Duty game is now on sale for $20 off, just a few weeks after its release.$39.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 35%$44.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $59.99 | Save 25%Call of Duty Vanguard for PlayStation 5The latest Call of Duty game is now on sale for $15 off for PlayStation 5 just a few weeks after its release.$54.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $69.98 | Save 21%Nintendo Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit Nintendo Switch Set EditionYou can use a Nintendo Switch to control this real-life Mario Kart toy, and watch Mario or Luigi’s perspective as they zoom around your home.$88.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $99.99 | Save 11%$99.99 FROM BEST BUYLogitech G305 Lightspeed Wireless Gaming MouseCompact and portable, the Logitech G305 is great to take on the go. It's best if you prefer smaller mice and right now it's only $40, a great price drop from a typical selling price of $50.$29.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%$29.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $48.97 | Save 39%Nintendo Switch Ring Fit Adventure"Ring Fit Adventure" for the Nintendo Switch uses the exclusive "Ring-Con" attachment and a leg strap to track movement and provide resistance for workouts. The game also includes an adventure mode. Right now, it's selling for $55 at Target and Amazon, $25 off its usual price and the lowest price we've ever seen on this game.$54.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $79.98 | Save 32%$54.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $80.00 | Save 33%$79.98 FROM BEST BUY$79.98 FROM TARGETBest Cyber Monday 2021 streaming dealsHulu Monthly Subscription (Deal)Save a huge 85% on an ad-supported Hulu subscription for an entire year. That amounts to just 99 cents per month. This deal is live until Monday, November 29. $0.99 FROM HULUOriginally $6.99 | Save 86%Philo TVIf you want your streaming service to cost less per month than a single trip for the family to Starbucks, Philo TV is made with you in mind.$5.00 FROM PHILOOriginally $25.00 | Save 80%Disney Plus Free Trial with Amazon Music UnlimitedNew Amazon Music Unlimited subscribers can get six months of Disney Plus for free when they sign up. Current Music Unlimited members can get three months of Disney Plus. Music Unlimited costs $8 a month for Prime members or $10 a month without Prime.$0.00 FROM AMAZONAmazon Prime Video Channel Add-OnsPrime Video subscribers can choose from a variety of channel-add ons including Starz, Showtime, Paramount+, AMC+, Discovery+, and more.$0.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $10.99 | Save 91%YouTube PremiumYouTube Premium lets you stream videos and music on YouTube without any ads. The service also features exclusive programs.FREE FROM YOUTUBEOriginally $11.99 | Save 100%Best Cyber Monday 2021 health & fitness dealsTheragun PROThe Theragun Pro is our top pick: a powerful, customizable, and durable massager that's worth every bit of its $600 price tag. $399.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%$399.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.00 FROM THERABODYOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%23andMe Ancestry + Health KitThe 23andMe DNA Ancestry + Health Kit tells you which illnesses you're predisposed to and gives you a full look at your ancestry.$99.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $199.00 | Save 50%$99.00 FROM 23ANDMEOriginally $199.00 | Save 50%Fitbit LuxeThe Fitbit Luxe is the company's latest fitness band that comes with a sleek design and advanced health features like stress management and the ability to measure heart rate variation.$99.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $149.99 | Save 33%$99.95 FROM FITBITOriginally $149.94 | Save 33%$99.95 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $149.94 | Save 33%Mirror from lululemonThis isn't just a mirror. It's a cardio class, it's a yoga studio, it's a boxing ring, it's your new personal trainer, and it's so much more. For Cyber Monday, Mirror is on sale for $500 with the code "CYBERMONDAY20"$995.00 FROM MIRROROriginally $1495.00 | Save 33%Hydro Flask 32-Ounce Wide Mouth This bottle has all the hallmark features of a Hydro Flask water bottle — 12-24 hours of temperature retention, powder color coating that won't chip or fade with time, a silicone twist top — with the very convenient wide mouth for easy pouring and drinking.$33.71 FROM HYDRO FLASKOriginally $44.95 | Save 25%Amazon HaloAmazon's Halo fitness tracker can analyze the tone of your voice to help you understand how you sound to others.$54.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 45%LifeSpan TR1200i Folding TreadmillThe TR1200i is the baby sister of our top pick for a folding treadmill, the TR300i, with fewer built-in training programs and fewer fancy features like manual instead of digital buttons. But it's nearly the same size, has the same motor, and the same shock absorption — but for significantly cheaper.$899.00 FROM LIFESPANOriginally $1199.00 | Save 25%Best Cyber Monday 2021 style & beauty dealsTarte Tartelette Full Bloom Amazonian Clay Eyeshadow PaletteFrom shimmery to matte options, the Tartelette Full Bloom Amazonian Clay includes 28 limited-edition shades to wear for any occasion. $52.00 FROM KOHL'SDyson Airwrap Complete StylerDyson Airwrap Complete Styler is engineered for multiple hair types and styles. Featuring Coanda air styling and propelled by the Dyson digital motor, users can curl, wave, smooth and dry with no extreme heat.$399.99 FROM NEW EGGOriginally $499.99 | Save 20%$549.95 FROM DYSON$549.99 FROM BEST BUY$549.00 FROM AMAZONL.L.Bean Wicked Good Slippers - Men'sThis shearling-lined, leather-bottom slipper is one of the best men's slippers we've ever tried.$75.65 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $89.00 | Save 15%L.L.Bean Wicked Good Shearling-Lined Slides - Women'sThese ridiculously-cozy, shearling-lined slides are easy to slip on and off, and keep your feet toasty around the house.$67.15 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $79.00 | Save 15%L.L.Bean Toddlers' Wicked Good SlippersEverything we love about L.L.Bean's Wicked Good Slippers — but mini. These shearling-lined, leather-soled booties will keep kid's feet, sizes 3-10, toasty around the house and in a stroller.$33.96 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $39.95 | Save 15%Lululemon Hooded Define JacketA fan-favorite, now with a hood. Between the technical fabric and a do-anything fit, it's easy to see why this one's a hit. Right now you can save up to 50% on this versatile piece, but sizes are selling out quickly. $64.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $128.00 | Save 50%Lululemon Wunder Under High-Rise TightLululemon is, in many ways, the genesis of athleisure, so it's not surprising that the company has an edge in the space.$69.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $98.00 | Save 30%Lululemon Metal Vent Breathe Short SleeveLululemon Metal Vent Breathe Short Sleeve $49.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $78.00 | Save 37%Bombas Women's Gripper Slipper (Sherpa Lined) 2-PackA mix between socks and slippers, Bombas' Gripper Slippers include a cozy sherpa lining and sole grippers to prevent slips. $72.95 FROM BOMBASOriginally $96.00 | Save 24%Columbia Men's Lake 22 Down Hooded JacketThis water-resistant jacket is stocked with 650-fill power down insulation, zippered hand pockets, and a structured hood to keep you zipped up and toasty through any winter weather.$69.98 FROM COLUMBIAOriginally $140.00 | Save 50%Adidas Climacool VentoThe Adidas Climacool Vento features a highly breathable mesh upper to help keep your feet cool.$98.00 FROM ADIDASOriginally $140.00 | Save 30%Nike Adapt Auto MaxThe Nike Adapt Auto Max uses advanced technology to automatically form to your foot without laces.$286.63 FROM NIKEOriginally $400.00 | Save 28%Nike Space Hippie 01The Nike Space Hippie 01 is made from 50% recycled materials and features a lightweight, track-inspired look.$77.58 FROM NIKEOriginally $130.00 | Save 40%Crocs Classic Clog (Unisex)The shoe that really started it all, the Classic Clog is comfortable, breathable, and easy to slip on whenever. With over 20 fun colors to choose from, you can’t go wrong.$39.99 FROM CROCSOriginally $49.99 | Save 20%$27.55 FROM AMAZONDagne Dover Indi Diaper BackpackDagne Dover's Indi Diaper Backpack adds a stylish neutral flair while holding every basic essential.$160.00 FROM DAGNE DOVEROriginally $200.00 | Save 20%Everlane Glove Boot ReKnitEverlane's Glove Boot is a sleek boot made with stretchy, sustainable knit fabric and a walkable heel for all-day comfort. $46.00 FROM EVERLANEOriginally $115.00 | Save 60%OutdoorVoices The Exercise DressOutdoorVoices makes a few of our favorite athleisure items, and they're another example of a company that can balance form and function.$75.00 FROM OUTDOORVOICESOriginally $100.00 | Save 25%Rough Linen St. Barts Linen RobeThe Rough Linen St. Barts Robe is made from top-notch linen that offers a light feel and a cool, casual look.$131.93 FROM ROUGH LINENOriginally $167.00 | Save 21%Kiehl's Since 1851 Avocado Nourishing Hydration MaskWinter is coming, and Kiehls' Avocado Mask is here to provide your skin with hydration all season long. This nourishing treatment infuses your face with avocado and evening primrose oils, offering sumptuous moisture after just one use. Plus, it's green tint is a total throwback. You can save 50% on a jar during Black Friday sale. $21.50 FROM MACY'SOriginally $45.00 | Save 52%Giorgio Armani Lip Magnet Liquid LipstickA liquid lip color that gives you a super matte look, but it's so light it feels like a lip stain. The formula is highly pigmented, smudge-resistant, and comfortable on your lips.$19.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $38.00 | Save 50%Nike Sportswear Essential Fleece PantsMade from soft fleece material, these sweats are perfect for everyday comfort.$48.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $60.00 | Save 20%Thread & Supply Double Breasted PeacoatThis peacoat from Thread & Supply is a classic with a twist. The oversized buttons extend up the lapel to the collar, giving you the option to bundle up if necessary. And if you don't love it in black, never fear — you can save 31% on this coat in black, camel, or light gray. $39.90 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $58.00 | Save 31%True & Co. True Body Triangle Convertible Strap BraletteThe convertible straps on this wireless bra can be worn either straight or crisscrossed, and the smooth material appears invisible under clothes.$30.80 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $44.00 | Save 30%Spanx Faux Leather LeggingsMade with the same level of support as its signature shapewear but with a little extra stretch, these leggings are designed to not only make you look great but feel great, too. $78.40 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $98.00 | Save 20%$78.40 FROM SPANX Originally $98.00 | Save 20%Lululemon Wunder Under High-Rise TightLululemon is, in many ways, the genesis of athleisure, so it's not surprising that the company has an edge in the space.$69.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $98.00 | Save 30%Chaps Mens Long Sleeve Button DownMade from an easy-to-care-for cotton blend and a dose of stretch, this men's button-down shirt will keep you looking polished all day.$19.98 FROM WALMARTOriginally $60.00 | Save 67%Nine West Car Coat CardiganThi cozy topper is part coat, part cardigan, and will keep you warm all winter. Save an extra 15% on this cardigan with the code ENJOY15 at checkout.$35.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $60.00 | Save 40%When is Cyber Monday?Cyber Monday falls on the Monday after Black Friday every year. In 2021, the shopping event will land on November 29.As a continuation of sorts to Black Friday, Cyber Monday gives shoppers another opportunity to save on tech, home goods, clothing, and more that you might've missed while digesting Thanksgiving dinner. Unlike Black Friday, though, Cyber Monday is entirely online.What time does Cyber Monday start?Cyber Monday officially begins at 12 a.m. ET on November 29. That said, the event is expected to carry over many deals from Black Friday, so some discounts are already available.What is Cyber Monday?Cyber Monday began as the online version of Black Friday, where online retailers offered big discounts to match their brick-and-mortar counterparts. Now, Cyber Monday is one of the biggest shopping days of the year, often surpassing even Black Friday in terms of revenue and sales. Previously, the main distinction between Black Friday and Cyber Monday was that Black Friday focused on in-store sales and Cyber Monday on online sales. But as shopping habits have increasingly favored the internet, shoppers can look forward to a very online-focused Cyber Monday and Black Friday. Cyber Monday offers a great opportunity to save on all your holiday gifts. How long do Cyber Monday sales last? Though Cyber Monday sales once took place on Monday only, we've seen them extend to longer and longer durations, with a handful lasting through the rest of the week. However, the best discounts we see are in limited supply and expire soon after they become available.What's better, Black Friday or Cyber Monday?With more and more buyers shopping online, the debate over which shopping holiday wins, is practically moot. Both events will be held predominantly online, and more than a few deals overlap. In fact, many Black Friday deals become Cyber Monday deals when the dates change. If possible, buyers should shop on both holidays. We've seen different products receive better discounts on each day, and the deals that each retailer offers will vary. Generally speaking, consumers shopping for big-ticket items, such as laptops, TVs, and kitchen appliances, can expect more opportunities on Black Friday. Shoppers looking for last year's models, smart home gadgets, digital subscriptions, and gift cards will likely find more luck during Cyber Monday.What should I buy during Cyber Monday?If a retailer offers Black Friday deals, it's a near guarantee that it will offer Cyber Monday deals, too. Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Walmart are some noteworthy retailers that we know will participate in the shopping event, with deals across many product categories.We will likely see massive discounts on some of our favorite direct-to-consumer products during Cyber Monday, such as retail startups like Leesa and Brooklinen. For some online stores, Cyber Monday (or Cyber Week) will be one of the few times of the year when their products see major markdowns.Will there be Cyber Monday shipping delays?Shipping delays and shopping holidays are inextricably linked, so there's always a risk of late deliveries.To help you avoid the shipping crunch and get your stuff sooner, several retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Best Buy, offer in-store pickup and contactless curbside pickup. This means shoppers can grab their orders at a nearby location, provided that the retailer has it in stock. Best Cyber Monday deals we saw last yearLast year, we saw a lot of great sales on Cyber Monday ranging from sitewide discounts to specific products. Everything from home and kitchen, to subscription services were on sale during last year's annual savings event.Here are a few of the best Cyber Monday deals from 2020.  Philips Sonicare DiamondClean Classic Rechargeable Electric Toothbrush was $179 from Kohl's, originally $229.FujiFilm Instax Mini 11 Camera Bundle was $70 from Kohl's on Cyber Monday last year, originally $120.Keurig K-Supreme Single Serve K-Cup Pod Coffee Maker was $84 from Target on Cyber Monday last year, originally $140.How we select the best Cyber Monday dealsWe only choose products that meet our high standard of coverage, and that we've either used ourselves or researched carefully.We compare the prices among top retailers such as Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Walmart and only include the deals that are better than all others offered (not including promotional discounts that come from using certain credit cards).All deals are at least 20% off, with the occasional exception for products that are rarely discounted or provide an outsized value.Read more about how the Insider Reviews team evaluates deals and why you should trust us.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 28th, 2021

112 early Cyber Monday deals you can shop now: AirPods Pro, Roku, Google Nest, and more

Black Friday has ended, but you can shop early Cyber Monday deals now. Save big at Amazon, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Nordstrom, and more. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Alyssa Powell/InsiderCyber Monday is the online-focused sibling to Black Friday, and the event brings equally great discounts and sales straight to you. It's coming November 29, but many retailers are holding early Cyber Monday sales or continuing Black Friday deals through the weekend.Tons of deals are available now, and we're highlighting the best ones below. Here at Insider Reviews, we test products all year and track their price history so we can give you solid buying advice during big shopping events like Cyber Monday.Historically, the event has always been a great time to shop for tech, smart home, and gift cards — though stock is typically very limited. Acting fast is key to getting a good deal, so it's important to know what you're shopping for ahead of time.Below, we rounded up some of the best early Cyber Monday deals available now, plus answers to any questions you might have before the event.The best Cyber Monday deals available nowBest Cyber Monday 2021 tech dealsApple AirPods ProThe Apple AirPods Pro look and sound better than previous-generation AirPods. Plus, they have noise cancellation built right into them and integrate perfectly with other Apple devices. $169.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $249.99 | Save 32%$189.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $249.99 | Save 24%$189.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $249.99 | Save 24%$159.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $249.00 | Save 36%$209.00 FROM B&HOriginally $249.00 | Save 16%Roku Streambar 2020Too much clutter under the TV? The interesting Roku Streambar combines all of the features of a Roku 4K player with a compact soundbar.$79.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$79.98 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$99.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $129.99 | Save 24%Google Nest Hub (2nd gen)The Google Nest Hub is a smart display with a unique Sleep Sensing feature to help you monitor your sleep habits. $49.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $99.99 | Save 50%$49.98 FROM WALMARTOriginally $99.98 | Save 50%$49.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 50%Apple Watch Series 7Much more than a timepiece, the Apple Watch can also be used for keeping track of workouts, making phone calls, sending text messages, setting timers and alarms, counting calories, and more.$379.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $399.00 | Save 5%$379.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $399.00 | Save 5%$399.00 FROM APPLEApple Watch SE (40mm, GPS)With a recent Apple processor and many of the same features as the Series 7, the Apple Watch SE is a great budget-friendly option.$219.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $279.00 | Save 21%$279.00 FROM APPLEOriginally $279.00 | Save 0%Samsung Galaxy Watch 4 (40mm)The Samsung Galaxy Watch 4 is the obvious choice for Android users looking for a comprehensive, quality, premium smartwatch experience. However, it's a shame that the ECG feature is limited specifically to Samsung phone owners. $199.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $279.99 | Save 29%$199.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%$199.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%MasterClass 2-for-1 membershipGet two MasterClass subscriptions for the price of one! Each subscription gets you access to all of MasterClass, so you can watch or sample unlimited celebrity and expert-led classes across a wide range of topics.$180.00 FROM MASTERCLASSOriginally $360.00 | Save 50%Sony WH-1000XM4Sony's WH-1000XM4 are our go-to pair of headphones when we look for a balance of sound quality and noise-cancelling performance.$248.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%$248.00 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%$249.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%Bose QuietComfort 45The QuietComfort 45 have a refreshed design with improved noise cancelling and better battery life.$279.00 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM BOSEOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%Apple AirPods (3rd Gen)Apple's third-generation AirPods offer longer battery life, a MagSafe charger, water resistance, and support for spatial audio. $154.99 FROM MICRO CENTEROriginally $179.99 | Save 14%$179.00 FROM APPLE$149.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $179.00 | Save 16%$179.00 FROM BEST BUY$174.98 FROM WALMARTApple Airpods (2nd Generation)You’ll need to pick up your pair from your local Micro Center, but this is a solid deal price for the second-generation Apple AirPods. You can often find them discounted as low as $120, making this extra $5 drop noteworthy. $104.99 FROM MICRO CENTEROriginally $129.99 | Save 19%$114.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 12%$109.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $129.99 | Save 16%$119.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $129.99 | Save 8%Apple MacBook Air (M1)The latest MacBook Air released in late 2020 gains Apple's new M1 processor, which brings impressively fast performance and long battery life, for under $1,000, making it the best Apple laptop overall.$899.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $999.99 | Save 10%$999.00 FROM APPLE$899.00 FROM B&HOriginally $999.00 | Save 10%Apple MacBook Pro with M1 Processor (13-inch, 8GB RAM, 256GB)Apple's latest MacBook Pro with the M1 processor is leaps and bounds beyond its predecessor, but the Intel MacBook Pro still has some tricks.$1199.00 FROM B&HOriginally $1299.00 | Save 8%$1299.00 FROM APPLELG 65-inch C1 OLED 4K TVLG’s C1 is one of the best 4K TVs you can buy. The OLED panel delivers incredible image quality with an infinite contrast ratio. This deal price matches the lowest we’ve seen so far.$1796.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $2499.98 | Save 28%$1796.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $2499.98 | Save 28%Samsung 65-inch Q60A QLED 4K TVSamsung's Q60A is the company's less expensive lineup of premium QLED TVs. $849.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $999.99 | Save 15%Amazon Fire TV 50" Omni SeriesAmazon launched its own smart TVs in fall 2021 and the Omni Series boasts features like hands-free Alexa support and video calling along with the latest Fire TV software.$359.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $509.99 | Save 29%Amazon Echo (4th Gen)The latest Echo speaker from Amazon takes on a spherical design for more effective room-filling audio. $59.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%$59.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%$59.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K MaxThe Fire TV Stick 4K is designed to be 40% more powerful than Fire TV Stick 4K. It also adds Wi-Fi 6 support.$34.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%$34.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%$34.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%Ring Video Doorbell (2020)The latest affordable Video Doorbell model from Ring features 1080p recording and improved motion tracking. It's a great deal if you're looking to start adding smart devices to your home. Orders made now will be fulfilled in 6 to 7 weeks.$79.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 20%Amazon All-New KindleThe Kindle allows users to download hundreds, if not thousands, of books straight to the device. This model has a front light that makes it better-suited for night time reading.$49.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $89.99 | Save 44%Vizio Elevate 5.1.4 SoundbarVizio's Elevate soundbar offers a 5.1.4 Dolby Atmos experience with performance that rivals many full-fledged home theater systems.$798.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $1099.99 | Save 27%$799.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $1099.99 | Save 27%Yamaha YAS-209 SoundbarYamaha's YAS-209 offers great sound, Amazon Alexa support, and well-balanced functionality for a reasonable price. $299.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $349.99 | Save 14%$299.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $349.95 | Save 14%Logitech C922x Pro Stream WebcamYou'll also want a decent webcam and mic if you want to be seen on screen, and provide commentary for your gaming.$74.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 25%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 20%GoPro Hero 10 BlackThis video and still camera has similar capabilities to larger variants, while maintaining the small go-anywhere form-factor it's known for.$349.98 FROM GOPROOriginally $499.99 | Save 30%Best Cyber Monday 2021 kitchen dealsNespresso Vertuo Next Deluxe Coffee and Espresso MakerA truly versatile machine, the Nespresso Vertuo Next uses capsules to make both coffee and espresso in a variety of cup or carafe sizes.$126.75 FROM TARGETOriginally $169.99 | Save 25%Breville Joule Sous VideThis nimble, compact machine heats water quickly, can work in a wide range of vessels, and is operated entirely through a helpful app.$159.94 FROM AMAZONOriginally $199.95 | Save 20%$159.96 FROM BREVILLEOriginally $199.95 | Save 20%Instant Pot Air Frying Lid, 6 QuartsIf you already own an Instant Pot and are looking to add air fryer functionality, this lid will do the trick. It's compatible with Smart Wi-Fi 60, Smart Bluetooth, Duo Evo Plus 6, Duo Evo Plus 60, Duo SV 60 or Max 60 models. $49.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $89.99 | Save 44%KitchenAid KFC3516ER 3.5 Cup Food ChopperThe KitchenAid KFC3516ER 3.5 Cup Food Chopper is ideal and convenient for small prepping needs. The size makes it easy to store away or keep on your counter, and the Cyber Monday price makes it easy on your wallet. $39.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $54.99 | Save 27%$39.99 FROM KITCHENAIDOriginally $54.99 | Save 27%Ninja Professional Kitchen System BlenderThe Ninja Professional Kitchen System is a powerful blender that transforms into a food processor or a personal blender with just the swap of an attachment.$199.99 FROM TARGETNinja Professional Plus Food ProcessorThe Ninja Professional Plus makes food prep fast and easy with presets for chopped vegetables, shredded cheese, more.$79.98 FROM KOHLSOriginally $119.99 | Save 33%Zojirushi Virtuoso Plus BreadmakerThis bread machine kneads thoroughly, bakes evenly, and, unlike many of its competitors, turns out standard-sized loaves. $359.99 FROM BED BATH & BEYOND$359.99 FROM ABTDrinkMate Beverage Carbonation MakerIf you'd like to add fizz to more than just water, consider the Drinkmate Beverage Carbonation Maker, which can carbonate everything from juice to wine.$79.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $95.93 | Save 17%Ninja Foodi 5-in-1 Indoor Grill with Air Fryer, Roast, Bake & DehydrateThe Ninja Foodi 5-in-1 has five functions, including grill, bake, and dehydrate. Its temperatures range between 105°F to 500°F, giving it a lot of versatility in cooking options. Many of the parts are dishwasher safe for easier cleanup. $199.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $229.99 | Save 13%$199.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%Vitamix Explorian BlenderThe renewed Vitamix Explorian is pre-owned, but every bit as good as new and comes with a 90-day Amazon Renewed Guarantee on top of a 3-year full warranty.$289.95 FROM TARGETOriginally $449.99 | Save 36%$289.95 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $345.99 | Save 16%Instant Pot Duo Plus Pressure Cooker BundleThis bundle is a Target exclusive, and it includes an extra silicone egg rack and stainless steel steam rack for your pressure cooking needs. It’s only $60 right now — an excellent value for such a multifunctional kitchen appliance.$59.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 54%Our Place Always PanOur Place's Always Pan is multi-functional nonstick pan that's taken the internet by storm. It promises to replace eight different pieces of cookware in your kitchen. It can function as a steamer, saute pan, frying pan, and more. $99.00 FROM OUR PLACEOriginally $145.00 | Save 32%Cuisinart Chef's Classic 17-Piece Hard-Anodized Cookware SetThis nonstick set includes nine different pans, lids to match, and a steamer for a total of 17 pieces. $219.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $399.99 | Save 45%Keurig K-Mini Single Serve Coffee MakerThe slim 6- to 12-ounce coffee maker will fit neatly on any kitchen counter and save energy with the auto-off feature after brewing.$89.99 FROM TARGET$49.99 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $79.98 | Save 37%Best Cyber Monday 2021 home dealsEva-Dry Wireless Mini DehumidifierThis Eva-Dry dehumidifier measures 9 x 8.25 x 2.88 inches and works well for spaces up to 48 square feet. It uses silica beads to absorb moisture and has an absorbing capacity of six ounces. It’s also convenient because you only need to recharge it every four weeks. (It plugs into a wall outlet.)$14.97 FROM AMAZONOriginally $24.95 | Save 40%Molekule Air PurifierThis unit is popular among expert reviewers with its simple, portable design and quiet operation. We previously included the Molekule Air in our guide because it has multiple operation modes and can eradicate pollutants down to the nanoscopic level. However, at almost $800 plus $130 per year for filters, it's more than most people want to pay for an air purifier that isn't particularly powerful. We think there are better models at a lower price point.$479.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $799.00 | Save 40%$799.00 FROM MOLEKULEAeroGarden SproutA smaller option from AeroGarden's lineup, the Sprout lets you grow up to three plants in its narrow footprint. It's down to $70 with promo code SUMMER20 through May 31, a rare and excellent deal direct from AeroGarden.$49.95 FROM AEROGARDENOriginally $99.95 | Save 50%$49.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.95 | Save 50%Chewy Pet ProductsFor Cyber Monday, Chewy is offering $30 off purchases of $100 or more. This is only for select products, including food, treats, beds, and more.$70.00 FROM CHEWYOriginally $100.00 | Save 30%Dyson Outsize Absolute+The Dyson Outsize Absolute+ is ideal for whole home, deep cleaning with its full-size dustbin and large cleaner head. $799.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $899.99 | Save 11%Dyson V8 AbsoluteBuilt with a soft roller head for hard floors and a motorized cleaner head for carpets, the Dyson V8 Absolute handles all surfaces efficiently.$399.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $449.99 | Save 11%Dyson Cyclone V10 AbsoluteEquipped with a sensor to detect the difference between carpets and hard floors, the Cyclone V10 Absolute is the perfect vacuum cleaner for any room in the house. We've seen it go for as low as $350 before (it's usually $550), but during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, you'll get it for $400 while supplies last.$499.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $549.99 | Save 9%Drinkwell Two-Gallon Pet FountainThis two gallon pet drinking fountain is the perfect accessory to make sure your dog or cat (or both) are drinking enough water.$59.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $74.95 | Save 20%Eufy BoostIQ RoboVac 15C MAXQuiet, slim, and powerful, the eufy RoboVac 15C Max is a solid investment if you're looking for a robot vacuum. It's already very affordable at retail price, but you can also often find it on sale, making it an even better deal.$169.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $279.99 | Save 39%$169.99 FROM EUFYOriginally $249.99 | Save 32%iRobot Roomba i3+ (3550) Robot VacuumThe i3+ costs considerably more than your average robot vacuum, but it also does a lot more than the average robot vacuum. It develops personalized cleaning schedules and empties itself. $399.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM IROBOTOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $565.47 | Save 29%$399.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo T8 AIVI Robot VacuumThe  Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo Pro Mopping System thoroughly cleans floors as opposed to pushing a wet cloth around. When paired with the Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo T8 AIVI Robot Vacuum, the two make easy work of time-consuming chores.$499.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $749.99 | Save 33%$799.99 FROM BEST BUYBissell SpinWave Robot VacuumThe Bissell SpinWave Robot Vacuum picked up all the pet hair on carpet in our tests and has a great assortment of mop attachments and accessories. The company is also committed to helping homeless pets and helps them find loving homes. $249.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $399.99 | Save 38%$299.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $399.99 | Save 25%Dewalt Atomic 20-Volt Max Compact Drill/Impact Combo Kit This 20-Volt MAX Brushless Compact 2-Tool Combo Kit includes 1 cordless Drill/Driver, 1 cordless Impact Driver, two 20-Volt MAX Lithium Ion Batteries, 1 charger, and a carrying bag. $149.00 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $229.00 | Save 35%Best Cyber Monday 2021 gaming dealsLogitech G305 Lightspeed Wireless Gaming MouseCompact and portable, the Logitech G305 is great to take on the go. It's best if you prefer smaller mice and right now it's only $40, a great price drop from a typical selling price of $50.$29.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%$29.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $48.97 | Save 39%Nintendo Switch Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Digital Download)The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild was released for the Nintendo Switch in 2017, but still remains one of the best Switch games out there. Right now, a physical copy is selling for $40, which is a solid price on this rarely discounted game.$35.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%Nintendo Switch Fire Emblem: Three Houses"Fire Emblem: Three Houses" is a turn-based war strategy game that encourages you to build relationships with your soldiers and master your tactics on the battlefield. $35.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$35.00 FROM GAMESTOPOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$35.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$59.99 FROM BEST BUYNintendo eShop $50 Gift CardThe Nintendo eShop is the best place to shop for digital copies of Nintendo's games. This gift card is the perfect gift or investment for anyone with a Nintendo Switch. Better still, Nintendo's eShop offers several sales throughout the year. This means, patient shoppers can double their savings.$45.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $50.00 | Save 10%$50.00 FROM BEST BUY$45.00 FROM NEWEGGOriginally $50.00 | Save 10%Xbox Game Pass for PC (3-Month Membership)Typically, you can get a 3-month Game Pass subscription for $30. Right now, it's only $20, a solid deal. This is the PC version, which gets you EA Play, exclusive member discounts, and unlimited to access to over 100 games. $1.00 FROM MICROSOFTOriginally $29.99 | Save 97%$19.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $29.99 | Save 33%$19.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $29.99 | Save 33%PlayStation Plus 12-Month SubscriptionPlayStation Plus allows gamers to play online, nets them special discounts in the PlayStation Network store, and subscribers get free games each month that remain available as long as the PlayStation Plus subscription is active. $36.99 FROM CDKEYSOriginally $59.99 | Save 38%$39.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%$39.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%Microsoft Xbox Series S|X Wireless ControllerThis latest-gen Xbox gamepad is the best Microsoft has ever made, and during Cyber Monday, shoppers can save $20 on this recently released controller.$49.99 FROM MICROSOFTOriginally $59.99 | Save 17%$54.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 8%$49.00 FROM GAME STOPOriginally $54.99 | Save 11%$52.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 12%Death Loop for PlayStation 5“Death Loop” is an unusual first-person shooter that challenges players to escape a day-long time loop by assassinating specific targets. The game is a great pick for fans of spy movies, sci-fi, and creative gunplay.$29.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%Call of Duty Vanguard for PlayStation 4The latest Call of Duty game is now on sale for $20 off, just a few weeks after its release.$39.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 35%$44.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $59.99 | Save 25%Logitech G305 Lightspeed Wireless Gaming MouseCompact and portable, the Logitech G305 is great to take on the go. It's best if you prefer smaller mice and right now it's only $40, a great price drop from a typical selling price of $50.$29.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%$29.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $48.97 | Save 39%Nintendo Switch Ring Fit Adventure"Ring Fit Adventure" for the Nintendo Switch uses the exclusive "Ring-Con" attachment and a leg strap to track movement and provide resistance for workouts. The game also includes an adventure mode. Right now, it's selling for $55 at Target and Amazon, $25 off its usual price and the lowest price we've ever seen on this game.$79.98 FROM TARGET$54.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $79.98 | Save 32%$54.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $80.00 | Save 33%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYBest Cyber Monday 2021 streaming dealsHulu Monthly Subscription (Deal)Save a huge 85% on an ad-supported Hulu subscription for an entire year. That amounts to just 99 cents per month. This deal is live until Monday, November 29. $0.99 FROM HULUOriginally $6.99 | Save 86%Philo TVIf you want your streaming service to cost less per month than a single trip for the family to Starbucks, Philo TV is made with you in mind.$5.00 FROM PHILOOriginally $25.00 | Save 80%Disney Plus Free Trial with Amazon Music UnlimitedNew Amazon Music Unlimited subscribers can get six months of Disney Plus for free when they sign up. Current Music Unlimited members can get three months of Disney Plus. Music Unlimited costs $8 a month for Prime members or $10 a month without Prime.$0.00 FROM AMAZONAmazon Prime Video Channel Add-OnsPrime Video subscribers can choose from a variety of channel-add ons including Starz, Showtime, Paramount+, AMC+, Discovery+, and more.$0.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $10.99 | Save 91%YouTube PremiumYouTube Premium lets you stream videos and music on YouTube without any ads. The service also features exclusive programs.FREE FROM YOUTUBEOriginally $11.99 | Save 100%Best Cyber Monday 2021 health & fitness dealsTheragun PROThe Theragun Pro is our top pick: a powerful, customizable, and durable massager that's worth every bit of its $600 price tag. $399.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%$399.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.00 FROM THERABODYOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%Fitbit LuxeThe Fitbit Luxe is the company's latest fitness band that comes with a sleek design and advanced health features like stress management and the ability to measure heart rate variation.$99.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $149.99 | Save 33%$99.95 FROM FITBITOriginally $149.94 | Save 33%$99.95 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $149.94 | Save 33%Mirror from lululemonThis isn't just a mirror. It's a cardio class, it's a yoga studio, it's a boxing ring, it's your new personal trainer, and it's so much more. For Cyber Monday, Mirror is on sale for $500 with the code "CYBERMONDAY20"$995.00 FROM MIRROROriginally $1495.00 | Save 33%Hydro Flask 32-Ounce Wide Mouth This bottle has all the hallmark features of a Hydro Flask water bottle — 12-24 hours of temperature retention, powder color coating that won't chip or fade with time, a silicone twist top — with the very convenient wide mouth for easy pouring and drinking.$33.71 FROM HYDRO FLASKOriginally $44.95 | Save 25%Amazon HaloAmazon's Halo fitness tracker can analyze the tone of your voice to help you understand how you sound to others.$54.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 45%LifeSpan TR1200i Folding TreadmillThe TR1200i is the baby sister of our top pick for a folding treadmill, the TR300i, with fewer built-in training programs and fewer fancy features like manual instead of digital buttons. But it's nearly the same size, has the same motor, and the same shock absorption — but for significantly cheaper.$899.00 FROM LIFESPANOriginally $1199.00 | Save 25%Best Cyber Monday 2021 style & beauty dealsMadewell The Perfect Vintage JeanWith their waist-accentuating high rise and tapered legs, these are "mom jeans"...if your mom was a '90s supermodel. Plus, they're made of denim that has an old-school look and a touch of give for a perfectly broken-in feel.$80.50 FROM MADEWELLOriginally $115.00 | Save 30%Tarte Tartelette Full Bloom Amazonian Clay Eyeshadow PaletteFrom shimmery to matte options, the Tartelette Full Bloom Amazonian Clay includes 28 limited-edition shades to wear for any occasion. $52.00 FROM KOHL'SDyson Airwrap Complete StylerDyson Airwrap Complete Styler is engineered for multiple hair types and styles. Featuring Coanda air styling and propelled by the Dyson digital motor, users can curl, wave, smooth and dry with no extreme heat.$399.99 FROM NEW EGGOriginally $499.99 | Save 20%$549.95 FROM DYSON$549.99 FROM BEST BUY$549.00 FROM AMAZONL.L.Bean Wicked Good Slippers - Men'sThis shearling-lined, leather-bottom slipper is one of the best men's slippers we've ever tried.$75.65 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $89.00 | Save 15%L.L.Bean Wicked Good Shearling-Lined Slides - Women'sThese ridiculously-cozy, shearling-lined slides are easy to slip on and off, and keep your feet toasty around the house.$67.15 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $79.00 | Save 15%L.L.Bean Toddlers' Wicked Good SlippersEverything we love about L.L.Bean's Wicked Good Slippers — but mini. These shearling-lined, leather-soled booties will keep kid's feet, sizes 3-10, toasty around the house and in a stroller.$33.96 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $39.95 | Save 15%Lululemon Hooded Define JacketA fan-favorite, now with a hood. Between the technical fabric and a do-anything fit, it's easy to see why this one's a hit. Right now you can save up to 50% on this versatile piece, but sizes are selling out quickly. $64.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $128.00 | Save 50%Lululemon Wunder Under High-Rise TightLululemon is, in many ways, the genesis of athleisure, so it's not surprising that the company has an edge in the space.$69.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $98.00 | Save 30%Lululemon Metal Vent Breathe Short SleeveLululemon Metal Vent Breathe Short Sleeve $49.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $78.00 | Save 37%Bombas Women's Gripper Slipper (Sherpa Lined) 2-PackA mix between socks and slippers, Bombas' Gripper Slippers include a cozy sherpa lining and sole grippers to prevent slips. $72.95 FROM BOMBASOriginally $96.00 | Save 24%Columbia Men's Lake 22 Down Hooded JacketThis water-resistant jacket is stocked with 650-fill power down insulation, zippered hand pockets, and a structured hood to keep you zipped up and toasty through any winter weather.$69.98 FROM COLUMBIAOriginally $140.00 | Save 50%Adidas Climacool VentoThe Adidas Climacool Vento features a highly breathable mesh upper to help keep your feet cool.$98.00 FROM ADIDASOriginally $140.00 | Save 30%Nike Adapt Auto MaxThe Nike Adapt Auto Max uses advanced technology to automatically form to your foot without laces.$286.63 FROM NIKEOriginally $400.00 | Save 28%Nike Space Hippie 01The Nike Space Hippie 01 is made from 50% recycled materials and features a lightweight, track-inspired look.$77.58 FROM NIKEOriginally $130.00 | Save 40%Crocs Classic Clog (Unisex)The shoe that really started it all, the Classic Clog is comfortable, breathable, and easy to slip on whenever. With over 20 fun colors to choose from, you can’t go wrong.$39.99 FROM CROCSOriginally $49.99 | Save 20%$27.55 FROM AMAZONDagne Dover Indi Diaper BackpackDagne Dover's Indi Diaper Backpack adds a stylish neutral flair while holding every basic essential.$160.00 FROM DAGNE DOVEROriginally $200.00 | Save 20%Everlane Glove Boot ReKnitEverlane's Glove Boot is a sleek boot made with stretchy, sustainable knit fabric and a walkable heel for all-day comfort. $46.00 FROM EVERLANEOriginally $115.00 | Save 60%OutdoorVoices The Exercise DressOutdoorVoices makes a few of our favorite athleisure items, and they're another example of a company that can balance form and function.$75.00 FROM OUTDOORVOICESOriginally $100.00 | Save 25%Rough Linen St. Barts Linen RobeThe Rough Linen St. Barts Robe is made from top-notch linen that offers a light feel and a cool, casual look.$131.93 FROM ROUGH LINENOriginally $167.00 | Save 21%Kiehl's Since 1851 Avocado Nourishing Hydration MaskWinter is coming, and Kiehls' Avocado Mask is here to provide your skin with hydration all season long. This nourishing treatment infuses your face with avocado and evening primrose oils, offering sumptuous moisture after just one use. Plus, it's green tint is a total throwback. You can save 50% on a jar during Black Friday sale. $21.50 FROM MACY'SOriginally $45.00 | Save 52%Giorgio Armani Lip Magnet Liquid LipstickA liquid lip color that gives you a super matte look, but it's so light it feels like a lip stain. The formula is highly pigmented, smudge-resistant, and comfortable on your lips.$19.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $38.00 | Save 50%Anastasia Beverly Hills Brow DefinerThere's a reason why Anastasia Beverly Hills' Brow Definer is a favorite among beauty editors. The angled applicator allows you to sketch on hair-like strokes, providing you with a natural-looking fill every single time. The Definer is on sale during Nordstrom's Black Friday sale, and it's one of the best prices we've seen for this cult-favorite product. You can shop it in every color for just $16. $23.00 FROM NORDSTROMNike Sportswear Essential Fleece PantsMade from soft fleece material, these sweats are perfect for everyday comfort.$48.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $60.00 | Save 20%Thread & Supply Double Breasted PeacoatThis peacoat from Thread & Supply is a classic with a twist. The oversized buttons extend up the lapel to the collar, giving you the option to bundle up if necessary. And if you don't love it in black, never fear — you can save 31% on this coat in black, camel, or light gray. $39.90 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $58.00 | Save 31%True & Co. True Body Triangle Convertible Strap BraletteThe convertible straps on this wireless bra can be worn either straight or crisscrossed, and the smooth material appears invisible under clothes.$30.80 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $44.00 | Save 30%Spanx Faux Leather LeggingsMade with the same level of support as its signature shapewear but with a little extra stretch, these leggings are designed to not only make you look great but feel great, too. $78.40 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $98.00 | Save 20%$78.40 FROM SPANX Originally $98.00 | Save 20%Lululemon Wunder Under High-Rise TightLululemon is, in many ways, the genesis of athleisure, so it's not surprising that the company has an edge in the space.$69.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $98.00 | Save 30%Chaps Mens Long Sleeve Button DownMade from an easy-to-care-for cotton blend and a dose of stretch, this men's button-down shirt will keep you looking polished all day.$19.98 FROM WALMARTOriginally $60.00 | Save 67%Nine West Car Coat CardiganThi cozy topper is part coat, part cardigan, and will keep you warm all winter. Save an extra 15% on this cardigan with the code ENJOY15 at checkout.$35.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $60.00 | Save 40%When is Cyber Monday?Cyber Monday falls on the Monday after Black Friday every year. In 2021, the shopping event will land on November 29.As a continuation of sorts to Black Friday, Cyber Monday gives shoppers another opportunity to save on tech, home goods, clothing, and more that you might've missed while digesting Thanksgiving dinner. Unlike Black Friday, though, Cyber Monday is entirely online.What time does Cyber Monday start?Cyber Monday officially begins at 12 a.m. ET on November 29. That said, the event is expected to carry over many deals from Black Friday, so some discounts will likely already be available before that time.What is Cyber Monday?Cyber Monday began as the online version of Black Friday, where online retailers offered big discounts to match their brick-and-mortar counterparts. Now, Cyber Monday is one of the biggest shopping days of the year, often surpassing even Black Friday in terms of revenue and sales. Previously, the main distinction between Black Friday and Cyber Monday was that Black Friday focused on in-store sales and Cyber Monday on online sales. But as shopping habits have increasingly favored the internet, shoppers can look forward to a very online-focused Cyber Monday and Black Friday. Cyber Monday offers a great opportunity to save on all your holiday gifts. How long do Cyber Monday sales last? Though Cyber Monday sales once took place on Monday only, we've seen them extend to longer and longer durations, with a handful lasting through the rest of the week. However, the best discounts we see are in limited supply and expire soon after they become available.What's better, Black Friday or Cyber Monday?With more and more buyers shopping online, the debate over which shopping holiday wins, is practically moot. Both events will be held predominantly online, and more than a few deals overlap. In fact, many Black Friday deals become Cyber Monday deals when the dates change. If possible, buyers should shop on both holidays. We've seen different products receive better discounts on each day, and the deals that each retailer offers will vary. Generally speaking, consumers shopping for big-ticket items, such as laptops, TVs, and kitchen appliances, can expect more opportunities on Black Friday. Shoppers looking for last year's models, smart home gadgets, digital subscriptions, and gift cards will likely find more luck during Cyber Monday.What should I buy during Cyber Monday?If a retailer offers Black Friday deals, it's a near guarantee that it will offer Cyber Monday deals, too. Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Walmart are some noteworthy retailers that we know will participate in the shopping event, with deals across many product categories.We will likely see massive discounts on some of our favorite direct-to-consumer products during Cyber Monday, such as retail startups like Leesa and Brooklinen. For some online stores, Cyber Monday (or Cyber Week) will be one of the few times of the year when their products see major markdowns.Will there be Cyber Monday shipping delays?Shipping delays and shopping holidays are inextricably linked, so there's always a risk of late deliveries.To help you avoid the shipping crunch and get your stuff sooner, several retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Best Buy, offer in-store pickup and contactless curbside pickup. This means shoppers can grab their orders at a nearby location, provided that the retailer has it in stock. Best Cyber Monday deals we saw last yearLast year, we saw a lot of great sales on Cyber Monday ranging from sitewide discounts to specific products. Everything from home and kitchen, to subscription services were on sale during last year's annual savings event.Here are a few of the best Cyber Monday deals from 2020.  Philips Sonicare DiamondClean Classic Rechargeable Electric Toothbrush was $179 from Kohl's, originally $229.FujiFilm Instax Mini 11 Camera Bundle was $70 from Kohl's on Cyber Monday last year, originally $120.Keurig K-Supreme Single Serve K-Cup Pod Coffee Maker was $84 from Target on Cyber Monday last year, originally $140.How we select the best Cyber Monday dealsWe only choose products that meet our high standard of coverage, and that we've either used ourselves or researched carefully.We compare the prices among top retailers such as Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Walmart and only include the deals that are better than all others offered (not including promotional discounts that come from using certain credit cards).All deals are at least 20% off, with the occasional exception for products that are rarely discounted or provide an outsized value.Read more about how the Insider Reviews team evaluates deals and why you should trust us.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 28th, 2021

The Euro"s Death Wish

The Euro's Death Wish Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com, Last week’s Goldmoney article explained the Fed’s increasing commitment to dollar hyperinflation. This week’s article examines the additional issues facing the euro and the Eurozone. More nakedly than is evidenced by other major central banks, the ECB through its system of satellite national central banks is now almost solely committed to financing national government debts and smothering over the consequences. The result is a commercial banking system both highly leveraged and burdened with overvalued government debt secured only by an implied ECB guarantee. The failings of this statist control system have been covered up by a pass-the-parcel any collateral goes €10 trillion plus repo market, which with the TARGET2 settlement system has concealed the progressive accumulation of private sector bad debts ever since the first Eurozone crisis hit Spain in 2012. These distortions can only continue so long as interest rates are suppressed beneath the zero bound. But rising interest rates globally are now a certainty — only officially unrecognised by central bankers — so there can only be two major consequences. First, the inevitable Eurozone economic recession (now being given an extra push through renewed covid restrictions) will send debt-burdened government deficits which are already high soaring, requiring an accelerated pace of inflationary financing by the ECB. And second, the collapse of the bloated repo market, which is to be avoided at all costs, will almost certainly be triggered. This article attempts to clarify these issues. It is hardly surprising that for the ECB raising interest rates is not an option. Therefore, the recent weakness of the euro on the foreign exchanges marks only the start of a threat to the euro system, the outcome of which will be decided by the markets, not the ECB. Introduction The euro, as it is said of the camel, was designed by a committee. Unlike the ship of the desert the euro and its institutions will not survive — we can say that with increasing certainty considering current developments. Instead of evolving as demanded by its users, the euro has become even more of a state control mechanism than the other major currencies, with the exception, perhaps, of China’s renminbi. But for all its faults, the Chinese state at least pays attention to the economic demands of its citizens to guide it in its management of the currency. The commissars in Brussels along with national politicians seem to be blind to the social and economic consequences of drifting into totalitarianism, where people are forced into new lockdowns and in some cases are being forced into mandatory covid vaccinations. The ECB in Frankfurt has also ignored the economic consequences of its actions and has just two priorities intact from its inception: to finance member governments by inflationary means and to suppress or ignore all evidence of the consequences. The ECB’s founding was not auspicious. Before monetary union socialistic France relied on inflationary financing of government spending while Germany did not. The French state was interventionist while Germany fostered its mittelstand with sound money. The compromise was that the ECB would be in Frankfurt (the locational credibility argument won the day) while its first true president, after Wim Duisenberg oversaw its establishment and cut short his presidency, would be French: Jean-Claude Trichet. Membership qualifications for the Eurozone were set out in the Maastricht treaty, and then promptly ignored to let in Italy. They were ignored again to let in Greece, which in terms of ease of doing business ranked lower than both Jamaica and Columbia at the time. And now the Maastricht rules are ignored by everyone. Following the establishment of the ECB the EU made no attempt to tackle the divergence between fiscally responsible Germany with similarly conservative northern states, and the spendthrift southern PIGS. Indeed, many claimed a virtue in that Germany’s savings could be deployed for the benefit of investment in less advanced member nations, a belief insufficiently addressed by the Germans at the time. The ECB presided over the rapidly expanding balance sheets of the major banks which in the early days of the euro made them fortunes arbitraging between Germany’s and the PIGs’ converging bond yields. The ECB was seemingly oblivious to the rapid balance sheet expansion with which came risks spiralling out of control. To be fair, the ECB was not the only major central bank unaware of what was happening on the banking scene ahead of the great financial crisis, but that does not absolve it from responsibility. The ECB and its banking regulator (the European Banking Authority — EBA) has done nothing since the Lehman failure to reduce banking risk. Figure 1 shows current leverages for the Eurozone’s global systemically important banks, the G-SIBs. Doubtless, there are other lesser Eurozone banks with even higher balance sheet ratios, the failure of any of which threatens the Eurosystem itself. Even these numbers don’t tell the whole story. Most of the credit expansion has been into government debt aided and abetted by Basel regulations, which rank government debt as the least risky balance sheet asset, irrespective whether it is German or Italian. Throughout the PIGS, private sector bad debts have been rated as “performing” by national regulators so that they can be used as collateral against loans and repurchase agreements, depositing them into the amorphous TARGET2 settlement system and upon other unwary counterparties. Figure 2 shows the growth of M1 narrow money, which has admittedly not been as dramatic as in the US dollar’s M1. But the translation of bank lending into circulating currency in the Eurozone is by way of government borrowing without stimulation cheques. It is still progressing, Cantillon-like, through the monetary statistics. And they will almost certainly increase substantially further on the back of the ongoing covid pandemic, as state spending rises, tax revenues fall, and budget deficits soar. Bear in mind that the new covid lockdowns currently being implemented will knock the recent anaemic recovery firmly on the head and drive the Eurozone into a new slump. There can be no doubt that M1 for the euro area is set to increase significantly from here, particularly since the ECB is now nakedly a machine for inflationary financing. In the US’s case, rising interest rates, which the Fed is keen to avoid, will undermine the US stock market with knock-on economic effects. In the Eurozone, rising interest rates will undermine spendthrift governments and the entire commercial banking system. Government debt creation out of control The table below shows government spending for leading Eurozone states as a proportion of their GDP last year, ranked from highest government spending to GDP to lowest (column 1). The US is included for comparison. Some of the increase in government spending relative to their economies was due to significant falls in GDP, and some of it due to increased spending. The current year has seen a recovery in GDP, which will have not yet led to a general improvement in tax revenues, beyond sales taxes. And now, much of Europe faces new covid restrictions and lockdowns which are emasculating any hopes of stabilising government debt levels. The final column in the table adjusts government debt to show it relative to the tax base, which is the productive private sector upon which all government spending, including borrowing costs and much of inflationary financing, depends. This is a more important measure than the commonly quoted debt to GDP ratios in the second column. The sensitivity to and importance of maintaining tax income becomes readily apparent and informs us that government debt to private sector GDP is potentially catastrophic. As well as the private sectors’ own tax burden, through their taxes and currency debasement they are having to support far larger obligations than generally realised. Productive citizens who don’t feel they are on a treadmill going ever faster for no purpose are lacking awareness. These are the dynamics of national debt traps which only miss one element to trigger them: rising interest rates. Instead, they are being heavily suppressed by the ECB’s deposit rate of minus 0.5%. The market is so distorted that the nominal yield on France’s 5-year bond is minus 0.45%. In other words, a nation with a national debt that is so high as to be impossible to stabilise without the necessary political will to do so is being paid to borrow. Greece’s 5-year bond yields a paltry 0.48% and Italy’s 0.25%. Welcome to the mad, mad world of Eurozone government finances. The ECB’s policy failure It is therefore unsurprising that the ECB is resisting interest rate increases despite producer and consumer price inflation taking off. Consumer price inflation across the Eurozone is most recently recorded at 4.1%, making the real yield on Germany’s 5-year bond minus 4.67%. But Germany’s producer prices for October rose 18.4% compared with a year ago. There can be no doubt that producer prices will feed into consumer prices, and that rising consumer prices have much further to go, fuelled by the acceleration of currency debasement in recent years. Therefore, in real terms, not only are negative rates already increasing, but they will go even further into record territory due to rising producer and consumer prices. It is also the consequence of all major central banks’ accelerated expansion of their base currencies, particularly since March 2020. Unless it abandons the euro to its fate on the foreign exchanges altogether, the ECB will be forced to raise its deposit rate very soon, to offset the euro’s depreciation. And given the sheer scale of previous monetary expansion, which is driving its loss of purchasing power, euro interest rates will have to rise considerably to have any stabilising effect. But even if they increased only into modestly positive territory, the ECB would have to quicken the pace of its monetary creation just to keep Eurozone member governments afloat. The foreign exchanges will quickly recognise the situation, punishing the euro if the ECB fails to raise rates and punishing it if it does. But it won’t be limited to cross rates against other currencies, which to varying degrees face similar dilemmas, but measured against prices for commodities and essential products. Arguably, the euro’s rerating on the foreign exchanges has already commenced. The ECB is being forced into an impossible situation of its own making. Bond yields have started to rise or become less negative, threatening to bankrupt the whole Eurozone network as the trend continues, and inflicting mark-to-market losses on highly leveraged commercial banks invested in government bonds. Furthermore, the Euro system’s network of national central banks is like a basket of rotten apples. It is the consequence not just of a flawed system, but of policies first introduced to rescue Spain from soaring bond yields in 2012. That was when Mario Draghi, the ECB’s President at the time said he was ready to do whatever it takes to save the euro, adding, “Believe me, it will be enough”. It was then and its demise was deferred. The threat of intervention was enough to drive Spanish bond yields down (currently minus 0.24% on the 5-year bond!) and is probably behind the complacent thinking in the ECB to this day. But as the other bookend to Draghi’s promise to deploy bond purchasing programmes, Lagarde’s current intervention policy is of necessity far larger and more destabilising. And then there is the market problem: the ECB now acts as if it can ignore it for ever. It wasn’t always like this. The euro started with the promise of being a far more stable currency replacement for national currencies, particularly the Italian lira, the Spanish peseta, the French franc, and the Greek drachma. But the first president of the ECB, Wim Duisenberg, resigned halfway during his term to make way for Jean-Claude Trichet, who was a French statist from the École Nationale d’Administration and a career civil servant. His was a political appointment, promoted by the French on a mixture of nationalism and a determination to neutralise the sound money advocates in Germany. To be fair to Trichet, he resisted some of the more overt pressures for inflationism. But then things had not yet started to go wrong on his watch. Following Trichet, the ECB has pursued increasingly inflationist policies. Unlike the Bundesbank which closely monitored the money supply and paid attention to little else, the ECB adopted a wide range of economic indicators, allowing it to shift its focus from money to employment, confidence polls, long-term interest rates, output measures and others, allowing a fully flexible attitude to money. The ECB is now intensely political, masquerading as an independent monetary institution. But there is no question that it is subservient to Brussels and whose primary purpose is to ensure Eurozone governments’ profligate spending is always financed; “whatever it takes”. The private sector is now a distant irrelevance, only an alternative source of government revenue to inflation, the delegated responsibility of compliant national central banks, who take their orders from the economically remote ECB. It is an arrangement that will eventually collapse through currency debasement and economic breakdown. Prices rising to multiples of the official CPI target and the necessary abandonment by the ECB of the euro in the foreign exchanges in favour of interest rate suppression now threaten the ability of the ECB to finance in perpetuity increasing government deficits. The ECB, TARGET2 and the repo market Figure 3 shows how the Eurozone’s central bank balance sheets have grown since the great financial crisis. The growth has virtually matched that of the Fed, increasing to $9.7 trillion equivalent against the Fed’s $8.5 trillion, but from a base about $700bn higher. While they are reflected in central bank assets, TARGET2 imbalances are an additional complication, which are shown in the Osnabrück University chart reproduced in Figure 4. Points to note are that Germany is owed €1,067bn. The ECB collectively owes the national central banks (NCBs) €364bn. Italy owes €519bn, Spain €487bn and Portugal €82bn. The effect of the ECB deficit, which arises from bond purchases conducted on its behalf by the national central banks, is to artificially reduce the TARGET2 balances of debtors in the system to the extent the ECB has bought their government bonds and not paid the relevant national central bank for them. The combined debts of Italy and Spain to the other national central banks is about €1 trillion. In theory, these imbalances should not exist. The fact that they do and that from 2015 they have been increasing is due partly to accumulating bad debts, particularly in Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. Local regulators are incentivised to declare non-performing bank loans as performing, so that they can be used as collateral for repurchase agreements with the local central bank and other counterparties. This has the effect of reducing non-performing loans at the national level, encouraging the view that there is no bad debt problem. But much of it has merely been removed from national banking systems and lost in both the euro system and the wider repo market. Demand for collateral against which to obtain liquidity has led to significant monetary expansion, with the repo market acting not as a marginal liquidity management tool as is the case in other banking systems, but as an accumulating supply of raw money. This is shown in Figure 4, which is the result of an ICMA survey of 58 leading institutions in the euro system. The total for this form of short-term financing grew to €8.31 trillion in outstanding contracts by December 2019. The collateral includes everything from government bonds and bills to pre-packaged commercial bank debt. According to the ICMA survey, double counting, whereby repos are offset by reverse repos, is minimal. This is important when one considers that a reverse repo is the other side of a repo, so that with repos being additional to the reverse repos recorded, the sum of the two is a valid measure of the size of the market outstanding. The value of repos transacted with central banks as part of official monetary policy operations were not included in the survey and continue to be “very substantial”. But repos with central banks in the ordinary course of financing are included. Today, even excluding central bank repos connected with monetary policy operations, this figure probably exceeds €10 trillion, allowing for the underlying growth in this market and when one includes participants beyond the 58 dealers in the survey. An interesting driver of this market is negative interest rates, which means that the repayment of the cash side of a repo (and of a reverse repo) can be less than its initial payment. By tapping into central bank cash through a repo it gives a commercial bank a guaranteed return. This must be one reason that the repo market in euros has grown to be considerably larger than it is in the US. This consideration raises the question as to the consequences of the ECB’s deposit rate being forced back into positive territory. It is likely to substantially reduce a source of balance sheet funding for commercial banks as repos from national central banks no longer offer negative rate funding. They would then be forced to sell balance sheet assets, which would drive all negative bond yields into positive territory, and higher. Furthermore, the contraction of bank credit implied by the withdrawal of repo finance will almost certainly have the knock-on effect of triggering a widespread banking liquidity crisis in a banking cohort with such high balance sheet gearing. There is a further issue over collateral quality. While the US Fed only accepts very high-quality securities as repo collateral, with the Eurozone’s national banks and the ECB almost anything is accepted — it had to be when Greece and other PIGS were bailed out. High quality debt represents most of the repo collateral and commercial banks can take it back onto their balance sheets. But the hidden bailouts of Italian banks by taking dodgy loans off their books could not continue to this day without them being posted as repo collateral rolled into the TARGET2 system and into the wider commercial repo network. The result is that the repos that will not be renewed by commercial counterparties are those whose collateral is bad or doubtful. We have no knowledge how much is involved. But given the incentive for national regulators to have deemed them creditworthy so that they could act as repo collateral, the amounts will be considerable. Having accepted this dodgy collateral, national central banks will be unable to reject them for fear of triggering a banking crisis in their own jurisdictions. Furthermore, they are likely to be forced to accept additional repo collateral rejected by commercial counterparties. In short, in the bloated repo market there are the makings of the next Eurozone banking crisis. The numbers are far larger than the central banking system’s capital. And the tide will rapidly ebb on them with rising interest rates. Inflation and interest rate outlook Starting with input prices, the commodity tracker in Figure 6 illustrates the rise in commodity and energy prices in euros, ever since the US Fed went “all in” in early 2020. To these inputs we can add soaring shipping costs, logistical disruption, and labour shortages — in effect all the problems seen in other jurisdictions. Additionally, this article demonstrates that not only is the ECB determined not to raise interest rates, but it simply cannot afford to. Being on the edge of a combined government funding crisis and with a possible collapse in the repo market taking out the banking system, the ECB is paralyzed with fear. That being so, we can expect further weakness in the euro exchange rate. And the commodity tracker in Figure 6 shows that when commodity prices break out above their current consolidation phase, they will likely push alarmingly higher in euros at least. The ECB’s dilemma over choosing inflationary financing or saving the currency is about to get considerably worse. And for probable confirmation of mounting fear over the situation in Frankfurt, look no further than the resignation of the President of the Bundesbank, who has asked the Federal President to dismiss him early for personal reasons. It was all very polite, but a high-flying, sound money man such as Jens Weidmann is unlikely to just want to spend more time with his family. That he can no longer act as a restraint on the ECB’s inflationism is clear, and more than any outsider he will be acutely aware of the coming crisis. Let us hope that Weidmann will be available to pick up the pieces and reintroduce a gold-backed mark.   Tyler Durden Sun, 11/28/2021 - 07:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 28th, 2021

90+ Black Friday deals you can still get today: Dyson Airwrap, AirPods Pro, Roomba vacuums, and more

Black Friday is over, but you can still find deals just as good as Black Friday all over. Save on top buys from Walmart, Target, Nordstrom, and more. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Apple; Amazon; Target; Nordstrom; Kohl's; Rachel Mendelson/InsiderBlack Friday 2021 is over, but that doesn't mean it's too late to save big. Tech, home and kitchen, beauty and fashion, and health and fitness are all seeing huge discounts, making it a great chance to shop for gifts and big purchases. Insider Reviews works year-round to test products and track prices so we can offer expert buying advice during peak shopping periods like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.Plenty of retailers started offering big discounts before Black Friday, so don't be surprised if popular items like Apple's AirPods Pro headphones and Instant Pot pressure cookers begin to sell out as the holiday shopping weekend continues. That said, we've seen a few products go out of stock briefly only to return a few hours later.Below, we've selected the best deals we've found during the Black Friday 2021 weekend, with prices from multiple retailers so you can compare and choose. We'll be adding new deals to the list on a regular basis through Cyber Monday, November 29.Check out our comprehensive list of Black Friday sales across the net, from startups to retailers.You can also find the best deals at specific stores like Amazon, Target, Walmart, and Nordstrom.Here are 18 more Black Friday deals under $50 that are still up for grabs.Best Black Friday 2021 tech dealsApple AirPods ProThe Apple AirPods Pro look and sound better than previous-generation AirPods. Plus, they have noise cancellation built right into them and integrate perfectly with other Apple devices. $169.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $249.99 | Save 32%$189.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $249.99 | Save 24%$189.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $249.99 | Save 24%$209.00 FROM B&HOriginally $249.00 | Save 16%$399.99 FROM WALMARTRoku Streambar 2020Too much clutter under the TV? The interesting Roku Streambar combines all of the features of a Roku 4K player with a compact soundbar.$79.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$79.98 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 38%$99.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $129.99 | Save 24%Google Nest Hub (2nd gen)The Google Nest Hub is a smart display with a unique Sleep Sensing feature to help you monitor your sleep habits. $49.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $99.99 | Save 50%$49.98 FROM WALMARTOriginally $99.98 | Save 50%$49.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 50%Apple Watch Series 7Much more than a timepiece, the Apple Watch can also be used for keeping track of workouts, making phone calls, sending text messages, setting timers and alarms, counting calories, and more.$379.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $399.00 | Save 5%$379.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $399.00 | Save 5%$399.00 FROM APPLEApple Watch SE (40mm, GPS)With a recent Apple processor and many of the same features as the Series 7, the Apple Watch SE is a great budget-friendly option.$219.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $279.00 | Save 21%$279.00 FROM APPLEOriginally $279.00 | Save 0%Samsung Galaxy Watch 4 (40mm)The Samsung Galaxy Watch 4 is the obvious choice for Android users looking for a comprehensive, quality, premium smartwatch experience. However, it's a shame that the ECG feature is limited specifically to Samsung phone owners. $199.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $279.99 | Save 29%$199.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $249.99 | Save 20%$229.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $279.99 | Save 18%MasterClass 2-for-1 membershipGet two MasterClass subscriptions for the price of one! Each subscription gets you access to all of MasterClass, so you can watch or sample unlimited celebrity and expert-led classes across a wide range of topics.$180.00 FROM MASTERCLASSOriginally $360.00 | Save 50%Sony WH-1000XM4Sony's WH-1000XM4 are our go-to pair of headphones when we look for a balance of sound quality and noise-cancelling performance.$248.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%$248.00 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%$249.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $349.99 | Save 29%Bose QuietComfort 45The QuietComfort 45 have a refreshed design with improved noise cancelling and better battery life.$279.00 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM BOSEOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%$279.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $329.00 | Save 15%Apple AirPods (3rd Gen)Apple's third-generation AirPods offer longer battery life, a MagSafe charger, water resistance, and support for spatial audio. $154.99 FROM MICRO CENTEROriginally $179.99 | Save 14%$179.00 FROM APPLE$169.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $179.00 | Save 5%$179.00 FROM BEST BUY$174.98 FROM WALMARTApple Airpods (2nd Generation)You’ll need to pick up your pair from your local Micro Center, but this is a solid deal price for the second-generation Apple AirPods. You can often find them discounted as low as $120, making this extra $5 drop noteworthy. $104.99 FROM MICRO CENTEROriginally $129.99 | Save 19%$114.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 12%$114.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $129.99 | Save 12%$119.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $129.99 | Save 8%Apple MacBook Air (M1)The latest MacBook Air released in late 2020 gains Apple's new M1 processor, which brings impressively fast performance and long battery life, for under $1,000, making it the best Apple laptop overall.$899.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $999.99 | Save 10%$999.00 FROM APPLE$899.00 FROM B&HOriginally $999.00 | Save 10%Apple MacBook Pro with M1 Processor (13-inch, 8GB RAM, 256GB)Apple's latest MacBook Pro with the M1 processor is leaps and bounds beyond its predecessor, but the Intel MacBook Pro still has some tricks.$1199.00 FROM B&HOriginally $1299.00 | Save 8%$1299.00 FROM APPLELG 65-inch C1 OLED 4K TVLG’s C1 is one of the best 4K TVs you can buy. The OLED panel delivers incredible image quality with an infinite contrast ratio. This deal price matches the lowest we’ve seen so far.$1796.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $2499.98 | Save 28%$1796.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $2499.98 | Save 28%Samsung 65-inch Q60A QLED 4K TVSamsung's Q60A is the company's less expensive lineup of premium QLED TVs. $849.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $999.99 | Save 15%Amazon Fire TV 50" Omni SeriesAmazon launched its own smart TVs in fall 2021 and the Omni Series boasts features like hands-free Alexa support and video calling along with the latest Fire TV software.$359.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $509.99 | Save 29%Amazon Echo (4th Gen)The latest Echo speaker from Amazon takes on a spherical design for more effective room-filling audio. $59.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%$59.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%$59.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $99.99 | Save 40%Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K MaxThe Fire TV Stick 4K is designed to be 40% more powerful than Fire TV Stick 4K. It also adds Wi-Fi 6 support.$34.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%$34.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%$34.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $54.99 | Save 36%Ring Video Doorbell (2020)The latest affordable Video Doorbell model from Ring features 1080p recording and improved motion tracking. It's a great deal if you're looking to start adding smart devices to your home. Orders made now will be fulfilled in 6 to 7 weeks.$79.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 20%Amazon All-New KindleThe Kindle allows users to download hundreds, if not thousands, of books straight to the device. This model has a front light that makes it better-suited for night time reading.$49.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $89.99 | Save 44%Vizio Elevate 5.1.4 SoundbarVizio's Elevate soundbar offers a 5.1.4 Dolby Atmos experience with performance that rivals many full-fledged home theater systems.$798.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $1099.99 | Save 27%$799.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $1099.99 | Save 27%Yamaha YAS-209 SoundbarYamaha's YAS-209 offers great sound, Amazon Alexa support, and well-balanced functionality for a reasonable price. $299.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $349.99 | Save 14%$299.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $349.95 | Save 14%Logitech C922x Pro Stream WebcamYou'll also want a decent webcam and mic if you want to be seen on screen, and provide commentary for your gaming.$74.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 25%$79.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $99.99 | Save 20%Microsoft Surface Pro 7The Microsoft Surface Pro 7 is sleek and portable with excellent performance for on-the-go use — making it still the most premium 2-in-1 tablet to date.$999.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $1329.00 | Save 25%GoPro Hero 10 BlackThis video and still camera has similar capabilities to larger variants, while maintaining the small go-anywhere form-factor it's known for.$349.98 FROM GOPROOriginally $499.99 | Save 30%Best Black Friday 2021 kitchen dealsKitchenAid KFC3516ER 3.5 Cup Food ChopperThe KitchenAid KFC3516ER 3.5 Cup Food Chopper is ideal and convenient for small prepping needs. The size makes it easy to store away or keep on your counter, and the Cyber Monday price makes it easy on your wallet. $39.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $54.99 | Save 27%$39.99 FROM KITCHENAIDOriginally $54.99 | Save 27%Ninja Professional Kitchen System BlenderThe Ninja Professional Kitchen System is a powerful blender that transforms into a food processor or a personal blender with just the swap of an attachment.$99.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $199.99 | Save 50%Ninja Professional Plus Food ProcessorThe Ninja Professional Plus makes food prep fast and easy with presets for chopped vegetables, shredded cheese, more.$79.98 FROM KOHLSOriginally $119.99 | Save 33%Zojirushi Virtuoso Plus BreadmakerThis bread machine kneads thoroughly, bakes evenly, and, unlike many of its competitors, turns out standard-sized loaves. $217.99 FROM BED BATH & BEYONDOriginally $359.99 | Save 39%$359.99 FROM ABTDrinkMate Beverage Carbonation MakerIf you'd like to add fizz to more than just water, consider the Drinkmate Beverage Carbonation Maker, which can carbonate everything from juice to wine.$79.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $95.93 | Save 17%Ninja Foodi 5-in-1 Indoor Grill with Air Fryer, Roast, Bake & DehydrateThe Ninja Foodi 5-in-1 has five functions, including grill, bake, and dehydrate. Its temperatures range between 105°F to 500°F, giving it a lot of versatility in cooking options. Many of the parts are dishwasher safe for easier cleanup. $169.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $229.99 | Save 26%$209.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $249.99 | Save 16%Vitamix Explorian BlenderThe renewed Vitamix Explorian is pre-owned, but every bit as good as new and comes with a 90-day Amazon Renewed Guarantee on top of a 3-year full warranty.$289.95 FROM TARGETOriginally $449.99 | Save 36%$289.95 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $345.99 | Save 16%Instant Pot Duo Plus Pressure Cooker BundleThis bundle is a Target exclusive, and it includes an extra silicone egg rack and stainless steel steam rack for your pressure cooking needs. It’s only $60 right now — an excellent value for such a multifunctional kitchen appliance.$59.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $129.99 | Save 54%Our Place Always PanOur Place's Always Pan is multi-functional nonstick pan that's taken the internet by storm. It promises to replace eight different pieces of cookware in your kitchen. It can function as a steamer, saute pan, frying pan, and more. $99.00 FROM OUR PLACEOriginally $145.00 | Save 32%Cuisinart Chef's Classic 17-Piece Hard-Anodized Cookware SetThis nonstick set includes nine different pans, lids to match, and a steamer for a total of 17 pieces. $219.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $399.99 | Save 45%Keurig K-Mini Single Serve Coffee MakerThe slim 6- to 12-ounce coffee maker will fit neatly on any kitchen counter and save energy with the auto-off feature after brewing.$49.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $89.99 | Save 44%$49.99 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $79.98 | Save 37%Bodum Chambord French PressThe Bodum Chambord is about as timeless as French presses get. It's unfussy and operates smoothly, and replacement parts (screens, braces, etc.) are affordable and easily attainable. $25.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $38.00 | Save 34%Best Black Friday 2021 home dealsDyson Airwrap Complete StylerDyson Airwrap Complete Styler is engineered for multiple hair types and styles. Featuring Coanda air styling and propelled by the Dyson digital motor, users can curl, wave, smooth and dry with no extreme heat.$399.99 FROM NEW EGGOriginally $499.99 | Save 20%$549.00 FROM SEPHORA$549.95 FROM DYSON$549.99 FROM ULTA$549.99 FROM BEST BUY$549.00 FROM AMAZONChewy Pet ProductsFor Cyber Monday, Chewy is offering $30 off purchases of $100 or more. This is only for select products, including food, treats, beds, and more.$70.00 FROM CHEWYOriginally $100.00 | Save 30%Dyson Outsize Absolute+The Dyson Outsize Absolute+ is ideal for whole home, deep cleaning with its full-size dustbin and large cleaner head. $749.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $899.99 | Save 17%Dyson V8 AbsoluteBuilt with a soft roller head for hard floors and a motorized cleaner head for carpets, the Dyson V8 Absolute handles all surfaces efficiently.$399.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $449.99 | Save 11%Dyson Cyclone V10 AbsoluteEquipped with a sensor to detect the difference between carpets and hard floors, the Cyclone V10 Absolute is the perfect vacuum cleaner for any room in the house. We've seen it go for as low as $350 before (it's usually $550), but during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, you'll get it for $400 while supplies last.$499.99 FROM DYSONOriginally $549.99 | Save 9%Drinkwell Two-Gallon Pet FountainThis two gallon pet drinking fountain is the perfect accessory to make sure your dog or cat (or both) are drinking enough water.$59.95 FROM AMAZONOriginally $74.95 | Save 20%Brooklinen Luxe Core Sheet Set (Queen)If you take your sleep comfort seriously, the pampering touch and good looks of Brooklinen's Luxe Sheets will have you sleeping like a baby.$140.00 FROM BROOKLINENOriginally $175.00 | Save 20%$140.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $175.00 | Save 20%Eufy BoostIQ RoboVac 15C MAXQuiet, slim, and powerful, the eufy RoboVac 15C Max is a solid investment if you're looking for a robot vacuum. It's already very affordable at retail price, but you can also often find it on sale, making it an even better deal.$169.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $279.99 | Save 39%$169.99 FROM EUFYOriginally $249.99 | Save 32%iRobot Roomba i3+ (3550) Robot VacuumThe i3+ costs considerably more than your average robot vacuum, but it also does a lot more than the average robot vacuum. It develops personalized cleaning schedules and empties itself. $399.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM IROBOTOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%$399.99 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $565.47 | Save 29%$399.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%Shark ION Robot® Vacuum RV750This is one of the cheapest smart vacuums we've seen to date – this far out from the official launch of Walmart's sale. It's tough to imagine this getting much cheaper during the deals event, so it might be wise to act quickly.$143.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $299.99 | Save 52%Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo T8 AIVI Robot VacuumThe  Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo Pro Mopping System thoroughly cleans floors as opposed to pushing a wet cloth around. When paired with the Ecovacs Deebot Ozmo T8 AIVI Robot Vacuum, the two make easy work of time-consuming chores.$499.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $749.99 | Save 33%$799.99 FROM BEST BUYBissell SpinWave Robot VacuumThe Bissell SpinWave Robot Vacuum picked up all the pet hair on carpet in our tests and has a great assortment of mop attachments and accessories. The company is also committed to helping homeless pets and helps them find loving homes. $249.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $399.99 | Save 38%$299.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $399.99 | Save 25%Dewalt Atomic 20-Volt Max Compact Drill/Impact Combo Kit This 20-Volt MAX Brushless Compact 2-Tool Combo Kit includes 1 cordless Drill/Driver, 1 cordless Impact Driver, two 20-Volt MAX Lithium Ion Batteries, 1 charger, and a carrying bag. $149.00 FROM THE HOME DEPOTOriginally $229.00 | Save 35%Best Black Friday 2021 gaming dealsNintendo Switch Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Digital Download)The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild was released for the Nintendo Switch in 2017, but still remains one of the best Switch games out there. Right now, a physical copy is selling for $40, which is a solid price on this rarely discounted game.$35.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%Nintendo Switch Fire Emblem: Three Houses"Fire Emblem: Three Houses" is a turn-based war strategy game that encourages you to build relationships with your soldiers and master your tactics on the battlefield. $35.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$34.99 FROM GAMESTOPOriginally $59.99 | Save 42%$39.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%$39.88 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 34%Nintendo eShop $50 Gift CardThe Nintendo eShop is the best place to shop for digital copies of Nintendo's games. This gift card is the perfect gift or investment for anyone with a Nintendo Switch. Better still, Nintendo's eShop offers several sales throughout the year. This means, patient shoppers can double their savings.$45.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $50.00 | Save 10%$50.00 FROM BEST BUY$45.00 FROM NEWEGGOriginally $50.00 | Save 10%Xbox Game Pass for PC (3-Month Membership)Typically, you can get a 3-month Game Pass subscription for $30. Right now, it's only $20, a solid deal. This is the PC version, which gets you EA Play, exclusive member discounts, and unlimited to access to over 100 games. $1.00 FROM MICROSOFTOriginally $29.99 | Save 97%$19.98 FROM AMAZONOriginally $29.99 | Save 33%$19.98 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $29.99 | Save 33%PlayStation Plus 12-Month SubscriptionPlayStation Plus allows gamers to play online, nets them special discounts in the PlayStation Network store, and subscribers get free games each month that remain available as long as the PlayStation Plus subscription is active. $36.99 FROM CDKEYSOriginally $59.99 | Save 38%$39.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%$39.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 33%Microsoft Xbox Series S|X Wireless ControllerThis latest-gen Xbox gamepad is the best Microsoft has ever made, and during Cyber Monday, shoppers can save $20 on this recently released controller.$49.99 FROM MICROSOFTOriginally $59.99 | Save 17%$54.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 8%$49.00 FROM GAME STOPOriginally $54.99 | Save 11%$52.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 12%Death Loop for PlayStation 5“Death Loop” is an unusual first-person shooter that challenges players to escape a day-long time loop by assassinating specific targets. The game is a great pick for fans of spy movies, sci-fi, and creative gunplay.$29.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%Call of Duty Vanguard for PlayStation 4The latest Call of Duty game is now on sale for $20 off, just a few weeks after its release.$39.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $59.99 | Save 35%$44.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $59.99 | Save 25%Logitech G305 Lightspeed Wireless Gaming MouseCompact and portable, the Logitech G305 is great to take on the go. It's best if you prefer smaller mice and right now it's only $40, a great price drop from a typical selling price of $50.$29.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $59.99 | Save 50%$29.99 FROM WALMARTOriginally $48.97 | Save 39%Nintendo Switch Ring Fit Adventure"Ring Fit Adventure" for the Nintendo Switch uses the exclusive "Ring-Con" attachment and a leg strap to track movement and provide resistance for workouts. The game also includes an adventure mode. Right now, it's selling for $55 at Target and Amazon, $25 off its usual price and the lowest price we've ever seen on this game.$54.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $79.98 | Save 31%$54.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $79.98 | Save 31%$54.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $80.00 | Save 33%$54.99 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $79.98 | Save 31%Best Black Friday streaming dealsHulu Monthly Subscription (Deal)Save a huge 85% on an ad-supported Hulu subscription for an entire year. That amounts to just 99 cents per month. This deal is live until Monday, November 29. $0.99 FROM HULUOriginally $6.99 | Save 86%Philo TVIf you want your streaming service to cost less per month than a single trip for the family to Starbucks, Philo TV is made with you in mind.$5.00 FROM PHILOOriginally $25.00 | Save 80%Disney Plus Free Trial with Amazon Music UnlimitedNew Amazon Music Unlimited subscribers can get six months of Disney Plus for free when they sign up. Current Music Unlimited members can get three months of Disney Plus. Music Unlimited costs $8 a month for Prime members or $10 a month without Prime.$0.00 FROM AMAZONAmazon Prime Video Channel Add-OnsPrime Video subscribers can choose from a variety of channel-add ons including Starz, Showtime, Paramount+, AMC+, Discovery+, and more.$0.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $10.99 | Save 91%YouTube PremiumYouTube Premium lets you stream videos and music on YouTube without any ads. The service also features exclusive programs.FREE FROM YOUTUBEOriginally $11.99 | Save 100%Best Black Friday health & fitness dealsTheragun PROThe Theragun Pro is our top pick: a powerful, customizable, and durable massager that's worth every bit of its $600 price tag. $399.99 FROM TARGETOriginally $599.99 | Save 33%$399.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%$399.00 FROM THERABODYOriginally $599.00 | Save 33%23andMe Ancestry + Health KitThe 23andMe DNA Ancestry + Health Kit tells you which illnesses you're predisposed to and gives you a full look at your ancestry.$99.00 FROM AMAZONOriginally $199.00 | Save 50%$99.00 FROM 23ANDMEOriginally $199.00 | Save 50%AncestryDNA Genetic Ethnicity TestThe Ancestry DNA Origins + Ethnicity Test gets you access to the largest customer database, which means more detailed results and more family matches.$49.00 FROM ANCESTRYOriginally $99.00 | Save 51%$49.00 FROM WALMARTOriginally $99.00 | Save 51%Fitbit LuxeThe Fitbit Luxe is the company's latest fitness band that comes with a sleek design and advanced health features like stress management and the ability to measure heart rate variation.$99.99 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $149.99 | Save 33%$99.95 FROM FITBITOriginally $149.94 | Save 33%$99.95 FROM BEST BUYOriginally $149.94 | Save 33%Mirror from lululemonThis isn't just a mirror. It's a cardio class, it's a yoga studio, it's a boxing ring, it's your new personal trainer, and it's so much more. For Cyber Monday, Mirror is on sale for $500 with the code "CYBERMONDAY20"$995.00 FROM MIRROROriginally $1495.00 | Save 33%Hydro Flask 32-Ounce Wide Mouth This bottle has all the hallmark features of a Hydro Flask water bottle — 12-24 hours of temperature retention, powder color coating that won't chip or fade with time, a silicone twist top — with the very convenient wide mouth for easy pouring and drinking.$33.71 FROM HYDRO FLASKOriginally $44.95 | Save 25%Amazon HaloAmazon's Halo fitness tracker can analyze the tone of your voice to help you understand how you sound to others.$54.99 FROM AMAZONOriginally $99.99 | Save 45%LifeSpan TR1200i Folding TreadmillThe TR1200i is the baby sister of our top pick for a folding treadmill, the TR300i, with fewer built-in training programs and fewer fancy features like manual instead of digital buttons. But it's nearly the same size, has the same motor, and the same shock absorption — but for significantly cheaper.$899.00 FROM LIFESPANOriginally $1199.00 | Save 25%Best Black Friday style & beauty dealsDyson Airwrap Complete StylerDyson Airwrap Complete Styler is engineered for multiple hair types and styles. Featuring Coanda air styling and propelled by the Dyson digital motor, users can curl, wave, smooth and dry with no extreme heat.$399.99 FROM NEW EGGOriginally $499.99 | Save 20%$549.00 FROM SEPHORA$549.95 FROM DYSON$549.99 FROM ULTA$549.99 FROM BEST BUY$549.00 FROM AMAZONL.L.Bean Wicked Good Slippers - Men'sThis shearling-lined, leather-bottom slipper is one of the best men's slippers we've ever tried.$75.65 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $89.00 | Save 15%L.L.Bean Wicked Good Shearling-Lined Slides - Women'sThese ridiculously-cozy, shearling-lined slides are easy to slip on and off, and keep your feet toasty around the house.$67.15 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $79.00 | Save 15%L.L.Bean Toddlers' Wicked Good SlippersEverything we love about L.L.Bean's Wicked Good Slippers — but mini. These shearling-lined, leather-soled booties will keep kid's feet, sizes 3-10, toasty around the house and in a stroller.$33.96 FROM L.L.BEANOriginally $39.95 | Save 15%Lululemon Hooded Define JacketA fan-favorite, now with a hood. Between the technical fabric and a do-anything fit, it's easy to see why this one's a hit. Right now you can save up to 50% on this versatile piece, but sizes are selling out quickly. $64.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $128.00 | Save 50%Lululemon Wunder Under High-Rise TightLululemon is, in many ways, the genesis of athleisure, so it's not surprising that the company has an edge in the space.$69.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $98.00 | Save 30%Lululemon Metal Vent Breathe Short SleeveLululemon Metal Vent Breathe Short Sleeve $49.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $78.00 | Save 37%Bombas Women's Gripper Slipper (Sherpa Lined) 2-PackA mix between socks and slippers, Bombas' Gripper Slippers include a cozy sherpa lining and sole grippers to prevent slips. $72.95 FROM BOMBASOriginally $96.00 | Save 24%Columbia Men's Lake 22 Down Hooded JacketThis water-resistant jacket is stocked with 650-fill power down insulation, zippered hand pockets, and a structured hood to keep you zipped up and toasty through any winter weather.$69.98 FROM COLUMBIAOriginally $140.00 | Save 50%Levi's 501 Original Fit JeansA blank canvas for self-expression, featuring the iconic straight fit and signature button fly.$58.80 FROM LEVI'SOriginally $98.00 | Save 40%Adidas Climacool VentoThe Adidas Climacool Vento features a highly breathable mesh upper to help keep your feet cool.$98.00 FROM ADIDASOriginally $140.00 | Save 30%Nike Adapt Auto MaxThe Nike Adapt Auto Max uses advanced technology to automatically form to your foot without laces.$286.63 FROM NIKEOriginally $400.00 | Save 28%Nike Space Hippie 01The Nike Space Hippie 01 is made from 50% recycled materials and features a lightweight, track-inspired look.$77.58 FROM NIKEOriginally $130.00 | Save 40%Fenty Beauty Pro Filt'r Soft Matte Longwear FoundationFor a matte, but not stone-like complexion, try Fenty Pro Filt'r Soft Matte Longwear Foundation.$27.00 FROM SEPHORAOriginally $36.00 | Save 25%$27.00 FROM FENTYOriginally $36.00 | Save 25%Crocs Classic Clog (Unisex)The shoe that really started it all, the Classic Clog is comfortable, breathable, and easy to slip on whenever. With over 20 fun colors to choose from, you can’t go wrong.$39.99 FROM CROCSOriginally $49.99 | Save 20%$27.45 FROM AMAZONDagne Dover Indi Diaper BackpackDagne Dover's Indi Diaper Backpack adds a stylish neutral flair while holding every basic essential.$160.00 FROM DAGNE DOVEROriginally $200.00 | Save 20%Everlane Glove Boot ReKnitEverlane's Glove Boot is a sleek boot made with stretchy, sustainable knit fabric and a walkable heel for all-day comfort. $46.00 FROM EVERLANEOriginally $115.00 | Save 60%OutdoorVoices The Exercise DressOutdoorVoices makes a few of our favorite athleisure items, and they're another example of a company that can balance form and function.$75.00 FROM OUTDOORVOICESOriginally $100.00 | Save 25%Rough Linen St. Barts Linen RobeThe Rough Linen St. Barts Robe is made from top-notch linen that offers a light feel and a cool, casual look.$131.93 FROM ROUGH LINENOriginally $167.00 | Save 21%Kiehl's Since 1851 Avocado Nourishing Hydration MaskWinter is coming, and Kiehls' Avocado Mask is here to provide your skin with hydration all season long. This nourishing treatment infuses your face with avocado and evening primrose oils, offering sumptuous moisture after just one use. Plus, it's green tint is a total throwback. You can save 50% on a jar during Black Friday sale. $22.50 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $45.00 | Save 50%$22.50 FROM MACY'SOriginally $45.00 | Save 50%Giorgio Armani Lip Magnet Liquid LipstickA liquid lip color that gives you a super matte look, but it's so light it feels like a lip stain. The formula is highly pigmented, smudge-resistant, and comfortable on your lips.$19.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $38.00 | Save 50%Anastasia Beverly Hills Brow DefinerThere's a reason why Anastasia Beverly Hills' Brow Definer is a favorite among beauty editors. The angled applicator allows you to sketch on hair-like strokes, providing you with a natural-looking fill every single time. The Definer is on sale during Nordstrom's Black Friday sale, and it's one of the best prices we've seen for this cult-favorite product. You can shop it in every color for just $16. $16.10 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $23.00 | Save 30%Nike Sportswear Essential Fleece PantsMade from soft fleece material, these sweats are perfect for everyday comfort.$48.00 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $60.00 | Save 20%Thread & Supply Double Breasted PeacoatThis peacoat from Thread & Supply is a classic with a twist. The oversized buttons extend up the lapel to the collar, giving you the option to bundle up if necessary. And if you don't love it in black, never fear — you can save 31% on this coat in black, camel, or light gray. $39.90 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $58.00 | Save 31%True & Co. True Body Triangle Convertible Strap BraletteThe convertible straps on this wireless bra can be worn either straight or crisscrossed, and the smooth material appears invisible under clothes.$30.80 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $44.00 | Save 30%Spanx Faux Leather LeggingsMade with the same level of support as its signature shapewear but with a little extra stretch, these leggings are designed to not only make you look great but feel great, too. $78.40 FROM NORDSTROMOriginally $98.00 | Save 20%$78.40 FROM SPANX Originally $98.00 | Save 20%Lululemon Wunder Under High-Rise TightLululemon is, in many ways, the genesis of athleisure, so it's not surprising that the company has an edge in the space.$69.00 FROM LULULEMONOriginally $98.00 | Save 30%Chaps Mens Long Sleeve Button DownMade from an easy-to-care-for cotton blend and a dose of stretch, this men's button-down shirt will keep you looking polished all day.$19.98 FROM WALMARTOriginally $60.00 | Save 67%Nine West Car Coat CardiganThi cozy topper is part coat, part cardigan, and will keep you warm all winter. Save an extra 15% on this cardigan with the code ENJOY15 at checkout.$21.24 FROM KOHL'SOriginally $60.00 | Save 65%Black Friday 2021 FAQSWhat is Black Friday?Black Friday is an annual sales event that traditionally happens at the end of November, marking the beginning of the holiday shopping season. The savings event is one of the biggest shopping holidays of the year — sales are so high that the day can push a retailer into "the black," or solvency.We've been seeing noteworthy price drops for the entire month of November, with all-time lows cropping up more and more as the day gets closer.When is Black Friday 2021?Black Friday is always the Friday after Thanksgiving. This year, Black Friday fell on November 26. However, we're seeing Black Friday-caliber deals continue even after Black Friday.Retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Best Buy have already kicked off their Black Friday sales, days before the holiday itself.What time did Black Friday start?Technically speaking, Black Friday started at 12:00 a.m. local time on November 26 for online retailers. However, Black Friday sales started whenever each retailer decided their deals will go live.A handful of retailers, like Walmart and Amazon, started early and have extended sales past Black Friday.What time do stores open on Black Friday weekend?Here are the opening times for the major retailers we're tracking throughout Black Friday weekend. Keep in mind that you can shop all the retailers below, plus others like Amazon, around the clock online.Apple: Varies by store, check store hours here.Bed Bath & Beyond: 6 a.m.Best Buy: 5 a.m.Dick's Sporting Goods: 5 a.m.The Home Depot: 6 a.m.Kohl's: 5 a.m.Lowe's: 6 a.m.Macy's: 6 a.m.Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack: Varies by store, check store hours here.Sephora: Varies by store, check store hours here.Target: 7 a.m.Ulta Beauty: 6 a.m.Walmart: 5 a.m.How long do Black Friday sales last?Don't be fooled by the name that suggests Black Friday is a single day. It's most definitely not. It's more like a shopping season that begins in early November. There are still Black Friday deals available right now.What should you buy on Black Friday?Since it falls a few weeks before the gift-giving season, Black Friday provides excellent opportunities to buy and save on all your holiday gifts before the last-minute rush. It's nearly guaranteed that you'll get great value for your money on certain products during Black Friday weekend — but some items tend to see better discounts at other times of the year. If you go in knowing what you're looking for, you're less likely to be ripped off by a fancy-looking coupon or to spend money on products you don't need.Shoppers saw tons of great deals — including so-called "doorbusters" — online before and early on in Black Friday. During the event, prices drop to all-time lows, often beating out prices we see over the course of the year. The sale covers every product category: tech, home and kitchen, fashion, and smart home. This Black Friday, we've seen similar offers to the ones we saw on Amazon Prime Day, except more wide-ranging.We recommend focusing on the following product categories if you want the best deals: TVsSmart home devicesGaming consoles and video gamesKitchen appliancesHistorically, Black Friday has been a great time to purchase big-ticket electronics — especially larger TVs. Whether you're looking for a top-of-the-line Samsung set or LG OLED, or a budget-friendly TCL or Hisense model, Black Friday weekend still has several deals.Much like Amazon Prime Day, we saw tons of discounts on smart home products last Black Friday. Amazon Echo products dropped to their lowest prices ever, plus we saw several discounts and bundles on Google's recently released products.This Black Friday we have seen discounts on the latest Xbox and Playstation games. While we didn't see any markdowns on new consoles last year, we did see a few bundles crop up and we've seen more of them in 2021. If you're looking for a kitchen upgrade, Black Friday is a great time to shop. We saw big discounts on Instant Pot pressure cookers, KitchenAid appliances, pots and pans, plus everything else you'll want for the upcoming holiday season.Of course, the deals found during Black Friday are incredibly wide-ranging. There have also been several deals on diapers, toilet paper, and other household essentials.Is Black Friday or Cyber Monday better?It's complicated, and it matters less every year.For those unfamiliar, Cyber Monday traditionally comes three days after Black Friday, on Monday. However, we've seen Black Friday and Cyber Monday slowly merge and expand to a weeklong, or even a month-long affair. Different products receive better discounts on each day, and the deals that each retailer offers will vary.A good rule of thumb to follow: If you think you see a good deal, (e.g., one we recommend) create the order as soon as possible. While you can always cancel or return a product, it's impossible to take advantage of an inactive, or expired deal.Suppose you purchase a discounted product during Black Friday and see a more significant markdown at another retailer come Cyber Monday. Don't sweat it.You can ask the original storefront to match the price (some automatically refund you the difference), or you can return or cancel the order, then place a new order with a better price. Some orders won't even ship during the weekend, which makes it easy to cancel orders.For those who can shop in-person during Black Friday weekend, we've found that it's better to shop that way in these situations:For expensive productsFor major storesFor this year's productsWhat stores have Black Friday deals still? Outside of a few notable exceptions like REI, nearly every major retailer and direct-to-consumer company is offering markdowns during the event. We've seen deals from Walmart, Best Buy, Dell, Amazon, Adorama, Lowe's, The Home Depot, and more.As we do every Black Friday, we are sifting through all of the offers and rounding up the best deals from your favorite retailers.Are there be Black Friday shipping delays?Shipping delays and major shopping holidays go hand in hand, and this year is no exception. Supply chain issues are cropping up, but they probably won't ruin your Christmas. To be safe, try buying your gifts as early as possible to avoid stock issues. With so many deals rolling out early, that's easier than ever.When did Black Friday ads come out?Black Friday ad scans are now available, including Walmart, Kohl's, Macy's, Amazon, and Target. For the full list of available ads, check out the catalog compiled on BlackFriday.com.Best Black Friday Deals we saw last yearLast year, we rounded up the best Black Friday deals we could find. Some of the best deals we found discounted many products over 50% with hundreds of dollars in savings. Here are some of the best markdowns we saw last year. iRobot Roomba 675 robot vacuum was $179 on Amazon, originally $229.LG 75" 80 Series smart webOS TV was $999 at Best Buy, originally $1,499.Insignia 24-inch Fire TV was $100 from Amazon, originally $170.Lenovo smart clock was $35 from Best Buy, originally $80.Samsung 1TB internal SSD was $100 from Walmart, originally $280.How we select the best Black Friday dealsWe only choose products that meet our high standard of coverage and that we've either used ourselves or researched carefully.We'll compare the prices among top retailers such as Amazon, Best Buy, Target, and Walmart and include only the deals that are better than all others offered (not including promotional discounts that come from using certain credit cards). All deals will be at least 20% off, with the occasional exception for products that are rarely discounted or provide an outsize value.Read more about how the Insider Reviews team evaluates deals and why you should trust us.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytNov 27th, 2021

Black Friday Turns Red On "Terrible News" - Global Markets Crater On "Nu Variant" Panic

Black Friday Turns Red On "Terrible News" - Global Markets Crater On "Nu Variant" Panic The Friday after thanksgiving is called black Friday because that's when retailers finally turn profitable for the year. Not so much for market, however, because this morning it's red as far as the eye can see. The culprit: the same one we discussed late last night - the emergence of a new coronavirus strain detected in South Africa, known as B.1.1.529, which reportedly carries an "extremely high number" of mutations and is “clearly very different” from previous incarnations, which may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defenses according to South African scientists, and soon, Anthony Fauci. British authorities think it is the most significant variant to date and have hurried to impose travel restrictions on southern Africa, as did Japan, the Czech Republic and Italy on Friday. The European Union also said it aimed to halt air travel from the region. "Markets have been quite complacent about the pandemic for a while, partly because economies have been able to withstand the impact of selective lockdown measures. But we can see from the new emergency brakes on air travel that there will be ramifications for the price of oil," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa. As a result, what was initially just a 1% drop in US index futures, has since escalated to a plunge of as much as 2% with eminis dropping the most since September, at one point dropping below 4,600 after closing on Wednesday above 4,700 as a post-Thanksgiving selloff spread across global markets amid mounting concerns the new B.1.1.529 coronavirus variant - which today will be officially called by the Greek lettter Nu - could derail the global economic recovery.  Russell 2000 contracts sank as much as 5.4%. Technology shares may be caught in the net too as Nasdaq 100 futures slid. The VIX increased as much as 9.4 vols to 28, it's biggest jump since January. It was last seen up 7.4 points, or the biggest increase since February. Adding to the pain, there is nothing on today's macro calendar and the US market closes early which will reduce already dismal liquidity even more, exacerbating some of the moves throughout the session. Headlines are likely to center on various nations preventing travel from South Africa whilst potentially imposing more stringent COVID measures domestically, as well as which countries "find" the Nu variant. Amid the panicked flight to safety, 10Y TSY yields tumbled as traders slashed bets on monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (just hours after Goldman predicted that the Fed would double the pace of its taper and hike 3 times in 2022, oops) ... ... as did oil amid fears new covid lockdowns will lead to a collapse in crude demand (they will also certainly force OPEC+ to put on pause their plans to keep hiking output by 400K every month). Paradoxically, even cryptos are tumbling, which is surprising since even the dumbest algos should realize by now that a new covid outbreak means more dovish central banks, no tightening, and if nothing else, more QE and more liquidity which is precisely what cryptos need to break out to new all time highs. Cruise ship operator Carnival slumped 9.1% in premarket trading and Boeing slid 5.8% as travel companies tumbled worldwide. Stay-at-home stocks such as Zoom Video rallied.  Didi Global shares fell after Chinese regulators reportedly asked the ride-hailing giant to delist from U.S. bourses. Here are some of the other big premarket movers: Airlines and other travel stocks slumped in premarket trading on growing concern about a new Covid-19 variant identified in southern Africa. The European Union is proposing to halt air travel from several countries in the area and the U.K. will temporarily ban flights from the region. United Airlines (UAL US) fell 8.9%, Delta Air (DAL US) -7.9%, American Airlines (AAL US) -6.7%; cruiseline-operator Carnival (CCL US) -12%; hotelier Marriott (MAR US) -6.1%; lodging company Airbnb (ABNB US) -6.9%. Stay-at-home stocks that benefit from higher demand in lockdowns rose in premarket, with Zoom Video (ZM US) gaining 8.5% and fitness equipment group Peloton (PTON US) +4.7%. Vaccine stocks surged in premarket, while Pfizer and BioNTech got an added boost after their coronavirus shot won European Union backing for expanded use in children. Moderna (MRNA US) rose 8.8%, Novavax (NVAX US) +6.2%, Pfizer (PFE US) +5.1%, BioNTech (BNTX US) +6.4%. Small biotech stocks gained in premarket as investors sought havens. Ocugen (OCGN US) added 22%, Vir Biotechnology (VIR US) +7.8%, Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE US) +5%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fell as Bitcoin dropped as investors dumped risk assets. Marathon Digital (MARA US) declined 9%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -8.8%, Coinbase (COIN US) -4.6%. Didi Global (DIDI US) declined 6% in premarket after Chinese regulators were said to have asked the ride-hailing giant to delist from U.S. bourses. Selecta Biosciences (SELB US) dropped 13% in Wednesday’s postmarket ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving closure, after saying the U.S. FDA placed a clinical hold on a trial. Quotient Technology (QUOT US) gained 3.9% in Wednesday’s postmarket on news that a board member bought $150,000 of shares. What happens next will matter and so, all eyes are on the opening bell for the U.S. markets, set to return from the holiday for a shortened trading session. Tumbling futures and a soaring VIX signaled that the rout in Asia and Europe won’t spare New York equities, while lack of liquidity will only make the pain worse. The Japanese yen emerged as the main haven currency of the day, with the dollar languishing. “Every trader in New York will be rushing to the office now,” said Salm-Salm & Partner portfolio manager Frederik Hildner, adding that news of the new variant could mean the end of the inflation and tapering debate. The worsening pandemic poses a dilemma for central banks that are preparing to tighten monetary policy to curb elevated price pressures, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “It’s terrible news,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, said in emailed comments. “The new Covid variant could hit the economic recovery, but this time, the central banks won’t have enough margin to act. They can’t fight inflation and boost growth at the same time. They have to choose.” “We now have a new Covid variant that’s ‘very’ different from the ones we knew so far, a rising inflation, and a market bubble,” she said.  “The only encouraging news is the easing oil prices, which could tame the inflationary pressures and give more time to the central banks before pulling back support.” In the meantime, the World Health Organization and scientists in South Africa were said to be working “at lightning speed” to ascertain how quickly the B.1.1.529 variant can spread and whether it’s resistant to vaccines. The new threat adds to the wall of worry investors are already contending with in the form of elevated inflation, monetary tightening and slowing growth. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index headed for the biggest drop in 13 months plunging 2.7%; travel and banking industries led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down as much as 3.7%, the biggest intraday drop since June 2020. Airbus slumped 8.6% in Paris and British Airways owner IAG tumbled 12% in London, while food-delivery stocks gained.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Stay-at-home stocks and Covid testing firms such as TeamViewer and DiaSorin are among the biggest gainers as worries over a new Covid variant send the Stoxx 600 tumbling on lockdown fears TeamViewer and DiaSorin rise as much as 6% and 7%, respectively On the down side, travel and leisure stocks plunge, with the likes of IAG, Lufthansa and Carnival posting double- digit falls IAG drops as much as 21% Software AG shares rise as much as 9.5% after Bloomberg reported that the firm is exploring strategic options, including a potential sale, with Morgan Stanley saying the company’s biggest headwinds are behind it. Evolution gains as much as 4.6%, recouping part of Thursday’s 16% plunge, with Bank of America saying the share price’s “crazy time” amounts to a good buying opportunity. Skistar rises as much as 3.7%, bucking steep declines for travel and leisure stocks, after Handelsbanken upgraded the stock, saying bookings for the Scandinavian ski resort operator are “set to surge.” Telecom Italia climbs as much as 2.8% following a Bloomberg report that private equity firms KKR and CVC are considering teaming up on a bid for the company. ING Groep falls as much as 11% after Goldman Sachs analyst Jean-Francois Neuez cut his recommendation to neutral from buy. Getlink drops as much as 6% as French fishermen start protests aimed at stepping up pressure on the U.K. in a post-Brexit fishing dispute. Earlier in the session, MSCI's index of Asian shares outside Japan fell 2.2%, its sharpest drop since August. Casino and beverage shares were hammered in Hong Kong, while travel stocks dropped in Sydney and Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei skidded 2.5% and S&P 500 futures were last down 1.8%. Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, a brokerage, said the closure of the U.S. market for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday had exacerbated moves. "We need to see how transmissible this variant is, is it able to evade the vaccines - this is crucial," Coghlan said. "I expect this story to drag on for a few days until scientists have a better understanding of it." Indian stocks plunged as the detection of a new coronavirus strain rattled investor sentiment globally, raising concerns over a likely setback to the nascent economic recovery.  The S&P BSE Sensex lost 2.9%, the most since mid-April, to 57,107.15 in Mumbai, taking its loss this week to 4.2%, the biggest weekly drop since January. The NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar magnitude on Friday. Reliance Industries was the biggest drag on both measures and declined 3.2%.  “There is fear of this new variant spreading to other countries which might again derail the global economy,” said Hemang Jani, head of equity strategy at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.   Of the 30 shares in the Sensex index, 26 fell and 4 gained. All but one of 19 sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. retreated, led by a index of realty companies. The S&P BSE Healthcare index was the only sub-index to gain, surging 1.2%. While researchers are yet to determine whether the new virus variant is more transmissible or lethal than previous ones, authorities around the world have been quick to act. The European Union, U.K., Israel, and Singapore placed emergency curbs on passengers from South Africa and the surrounding region. Travel stocks were among the hardest hit. InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. fell 8.9%, Spicejet Ltd. slipped 6.7% and Indian Hotels Co. Ltd. plunged 11.2%, the most since March 2020.  “Nervousness on the new variant of coronavirus and expectations of the U.S. Fed increasing the pace of tapering have led to recent market weakness,” Amit Gupta, fund manager for portfolio management services at ICICI Securities Ltd. said. “This trend may take some time to recover as the WHO meeting on the new mutant variant impact and hospitalization rates in US and Europe will be watched by the market very closely.” Crude oil to emerging markets completed this picture of mayhem. In rates, fixed income was firmly bid as Treasuries extended their advance led by the belly of the curve, outperforming bunds, while money markets pared rate-hike bets amid fears that a new coronavirus strain may spread globally, slowing economic growth. Cash Treasuries outperformed, richening 12-14bps across the short end, with Thursday’s closure exacerbating the optics. As shown above, 10Y Treasury yields shed as much as 10 basis points while the Japanese yen jumped the most since investors’ March 2020 rush for safety. Yields across the curve are lower by more than 8bp at long end, 13bp-15bp out to the 7-year point, moves that if sustained would be the largest since at least March 2020 and in some cases since 2009. Short-term interest rate futures downgraded the odds of Fed rate increases. Gilts richened 10-11bps across the curve, outperforming bunds by 4-5bps. Peripheral and semi-core spreads widen. In FX, JPY and CHF top the G-10 scoreboard with havens typically bid. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier touching a fresh cycle high, and the greenback was mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers as the yen and the Swiss franc led gains while the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone were the worst performers as commodity prices plunged. Traders pushed back the timing of a 25-basis-point rate increase by the Federal Reserve to July from June, with only one further hike expected for the remainder of 2022. It’s a similar story in the U.K. where the Bank of England is now expected to tighten policy in February instead of next month. Wagers that the ECB will raise its deposit rate by the end of next year have also been slashed, with only a six basis-point increase priced in, half of that seen earlier this week. The European Union is proposing to follow the U.K. in halting air travel from southern Africa after the new Covid-19 variant was identified there. The yen is at the epicenter of skyrocketing currency volatility as the new virus variant shakes markets. The cost of hedging against swings in the Japanese currency over the next week, which captures the release of the next U.S. payrolls report, is the most expensive in more than a year. In commodities, crude futures are hit hard. WTI drops over 7% before finding support near $73, Brent drops over 5% before recovering near $78. Spot gold grinds higher, adding $21 to trade near $1,809/oz. Base metals are sharply offered with much of the complex off as much as 3%. Looking at the otherwise quiet day ahead, data releases include French and Italian consumer confidence for November, as well as the Euro Area M3 money supply for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Visco, Schnabel, Centeno, Panetta and Lane, and BoE chief economist Pill. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.9% to 4,607.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 2.8% to 468.04 MXAP down 1.8% to 193.33 MXAPJ down 2.2% to 628.97 Nikkei down 2.5% to 28,751.62 Topix down 2.0% to 1,984.98 Hang Seng Index down 2.7% to 24,080.52 Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,564.09 Sensex down 2.7% to 57,234.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.7% to 7,279.35 Kospi down 1.5% to 2,936.44 Brent Futures down 5.8% to $77.46/bbl Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,805.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 96.46 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.31% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1259 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The European Union is proposing to halt air travel from southern Africa over growing concern about a new Covid-19 variant that’s spreading there, as the U.K. said it will also temporarily ban flights from the region Those close to the Kremlin say the Russian president doesn’t want to start another war in Ukraine. Still, he must show he’s ready to fight if necessary in order to stop what he sees as an existential security threat: the creeping expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a country that for centuries had been part of Russia Bitcoin tumbled 20% from record highs notched earlier this month as a new variant of the coronavirus spurred traders to dump risk assets across the globe Germany’s Greens tapped their two co- leaders to run the foreign ministry and take charge of an influential portfolio overseeing economy and climate protection in the country’s next government under Social Democrat Olaf Scholz A more detailed breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets declined and US equity futures were also on the backfoot on reopen from the prior day’s Thanksgiving lull with markets spooked by new COVID variant concerns related to the B.1.1.529 variant in South Africa that was first detected in Botswana. The new variant showed a high number of mutations and was said to be the most evolved strain ever which spurred fears it could be worse than Delta and is prompting both the UK and Israel to halt flights from several African nations. ASX 200 (-1.7%) was negative with heavy losses in energy and broad underperformance in cyclicals leading the downturn across all sectors, while the much better than expected Australian Retail Sales data was largely ignored. Nikkei 225 (-2.5%) underperformed and gave up the 29k status as selling was exacerbated by detrimental currency inflows and with SoftBank shares among the worst hit on reports that China is said to have asked Didi to delist from US exchanges on security fears, which doesn't bode well for SoftBank given that its Vision Fund is the top shareholder in the Chinese ride hailing group with a stake of more than 20%. Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) conformed to the risk aversion with the mood not helped by ongoing geopolitical concerns after a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson noted they are ready to crush Taiwan independence bid "at any time”, while China also said it opposes US sanctions on its companies and will take all necessary measures to firmly defend the rights of Chinese companies. Beijing interference further contributed to the headwinds amid the request by China for Didi to delist from US which reports stated regulators could backtrack on and with Tencent subdued after some Chinese state-run companies restricted the use of Tencent's messaging app. Top Asian News Stocks in Asia Set for Worst Day Since March on Virus Woes Mizuho CEO Steps Down After Regulator Hit on System Issues Meituan 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates Japan’s Kishida Delivers $316 billion Extra Budget for Recovery European equities are trading markedly lower (Stoxx 600 -2.9%) with losses in the Stoxx 600 extending to 3.8% WTD. Sentiment throughout the week has been hampered by various lockdown measures imposed across the region with the latest leg lower accelerated by new COVID variant concerns related to the B.1.1.529 variant in South Africa. The new variant has shown a high number of mutations and is said to be the most evolved strain so far. This has spurred fears it could be worse than Delta and has prompted multiple nations to halt flights from several African nations.The handover from the overnight session was an equally downbeat one with the Nikkei 225 (-2.5%) dealt a hammer blow by the risk environment and unfavourable currency flows. Stateside, futures are lower across the board with the RTY the clear laggard with losses of 4.2% compared to the ES -1.8%, whilst the tech-heavy NQ is faring better than peers but ultimately still lower on the session to the tune of 1.6%. Note, early closures in the US and subsequent liquidity conditions could exacerbate some of the moves throughout the session. With the macro calendar light, focus for the session is likely to centre on various nations preventing travel from South Africa whilst potentially imposing more stringent COVID measures domestically. Any further clarity on the spread of the variant and its potential to evade vaccines will be of great interest to the market and likely be the main driving force of price action today. Sectors in Europe are lower across the board with the Stoxx 600 Banking (-5.1%) sector bottom of the pile amid the declines seen in global bond yields as markets scale back expectations of central bank tightening (e.g. pricing now assigns a 63% chance of a 15bps hike by the BoE next month vs. 93% a week ago). Oil & Gas names (-4.8%) are suffering on account of the declines in the crude space with WTI crude in freefall with losses of 6.7% given the potential impact of travel restrictions on demand. Travel restrictions on South Africa (from UK, Israel, EU et al) and the potential for further announcements has crushed the Travel & Leisure sector (-5.7%) with airline names dealt a hammer blow; IAG (-13.5%), easyJet (-11%), Deutsche Lufthansa (-12%), Air France (-9.5%). Elsewhere, there are a whole raft of other laggards which are very much in-fitting with the March 2020 playbook but there are simply too many to list for the purpose of this report. Defensives and Tech are faring better than peers but ultimately still lower on the session to the tune of 1% and 1.9% respectively. Finally, for anyone wanting some positivity from today’s session, the potential for further lockdowns has proved to be beneficial for the likes of HelloFresh (+3.2%), Ocado (+2.1%) and Delivery Hero (+1.9%). Top European News Airlines Skid on South Africa Travel Bans Tied to Variant German Coalition Proposes a Combustion-Car Ban Without Saying So Putin Pushes Confrontation With NATO as Hardliners Prevail Siemens Is Said to Kick Off Sale of Postal Logistics Business In FX, the index has been under pressure in the risk-averse environment amid a slump in yields and gains in its basket components – namely the JPY, CHF, EUR (see below) – and with liquidity also thinned by Thanksgiving. From a technical perspective, the index has declined from its 96.787 overnight high, through the 96.500 mark, to a low of 96.332 – with the weekly trough at 96.035. Ahead, the US calendar is once again light, with the US also poised for an early Thanksgiving closure; thus, impulses will likely be derived from the macro environment. JPY, CHF, EUR - Haven FX JPY and CHF are the clear outperformers as a function of risk-related inflows. USD/JPY has retreated from a 115.37 peak and fell through its 21 DMA (114.15) to a base around 113.66 - with the current weekly low around 113.64. USD/CHF retreated from 0.9360 to 0.9260 – with the 50 and 100 DMAs seen at 0.9234 and 0.9219, respectively, ahead of 0.9200. EUR/USD meanwhile gains on what is seemingly an unwind of the carry trade amid a spike in volatility. EUR/USD found support near 1.1200 before rebounding to a current 1.1288 peak. AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP - The non-US Dollar risk currencies bear the brunt of the latest market downturn, with losses across industrial commodities not helping. The Loonie has taken the spot as the biggest G10 loser as hefty COVID-induced losses in the oil complex keep the currency suppressed. USD/CAD trades towards the top of a current 1.2647-2774 range. AUD is also weighed on by softer base metal prices – AUD/USD fell from a 0.7200 overnight high to a current low at 0.7110. On that note, Westpac sees AUD/USD pushed down to 0.7000 by Jun 2022 (prev. 0.7700) amid rate differentials with the US; Westpac made significant changes to its FOMC policy forecast and now expect consecutive increases in the fed funds rate in Jun, Sept, and Dec 2022. NZD/USD is slightly more cushioned amid smaller exposure to commodities, and as the AUD/NZD cross takes aim at 1.0450 to the downside. GBP, meanwhile, was initially among the losers amid its high-beta status but thereafter nursed losses in a move that coincided with EUR/GBP rejecting an upside breach of its 21 DMA at 0.8475. EM - The ZAR is the standout laggard given the new South African COVID variant - B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant (expected to be named Nu) – which is said to be the most evolved strain so far and thus prompted several countries to halt travel to the country of origin. USD/ZAR currently trades within a 15.9375-16.3630 intraday band. Meanwhile, the downturn oil sees USD/RUB north of 75.00 and closer to 76.00 from a 74.2690 base. The Lira also feels some contagion despite the lower oil prices (Turkey being a large net oil importer) – USD/TRY is back on a 12.00 handle and within 11.92-1226 parameters at the time of writing. In commodities, the crude complex has been hit by compounding COVID fears which in turn triggered various travel restrictions and subsequently took its toll on global crude demand prospects. The new and more evolved South African variant prompted the UK, Singapore, and Israel to expand their travel red lists to include some African nations (Israel reported its first case of the new COVID-19 variant known as B.1.1.529). Japan also imposed tighter border restrictions. China’s Shanghai city see flights impacted by its own outbreak. Europe also tackles its surge in daily cases - German Green Party's Baerbock (incoming Foreign Minister) does not rule out a German lockdown, according to Spiegel. EU Commission President von der Leyen is also to propose activation of the emergency air brake, to halt travel from southern Africa due to the B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant. Losses in oil have exacerbated - with WTI Jan and Brent Feb now under USD 74/bbl (vs high 78.65/bbl) and USD 77/bbl (vs high 80.42/bbl), -6.0% and -5.0% respectively. This comes ahead of the OPEC+ confab next week, whereby OPEC watchers have suggested that oil prices will be a large contributor to the final decision. It is difficult to see how OPEC+ will increase output to the levels the US et al. will be content with, with the latest COVID downturn building the case for a pause in planned output hikes. Elsewhere, haven demand sees spot gold extend on gains above USD 1,800/oz after topping the 100 DMA (1,792.95/oz), 200 DMA (1,791.38/oz), 50 DMA (1,790.13/oz) overnight. Base metals are softer across the board amid the risk aversion. LME copper posts losses of around 3% at the time of writing, as prices threaten a more convincing downside breach of USD 9,500/t. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Things have escalated on the covid front quite rapidly over the last 12 hours. Yesterday new covid variant B.1.1.529 was slowly starting to gather increasing attention but overnight it has begun to dominate markets and has caused a notable flight to quality with 10 year USTs -8bps lower. It was originally identified in Botswana and is starting to spread rapidly in Africa. The South African Health Minister has said it is "of serious concern". Almost 100 cases have already been identified in South Africa and the UK moved to put the country back (along with 5 other African nations) on a reinstated red travel list last night with others following this morning. The variant is said to be the most heavily mutated version yet and the WHO will meet today to decide if it is a variant of interest or a variant of concern. So a lot of eyes will be on how severe it is and whether it completely evades vaccines. At this stage very little is known. Mutations are often less severe so we shouldn’t jump to conclusions but there is clearly a lot of concern about this one. Also South Africa is one of the world leaders in sequencing so we are more likely to see this sort of news originate from there than many countries. Suffice to say at this stage no one in markets will have any idea which way this will go. Overnight in Asia all benchmarks are trading lower on the news with the Shanghai Composite (-0.50%), CSI (-0.64%), KOSPI (-1.27%), Hang Seng (-2.13%) and the Nikkei (-2.90%) all lower. Airlines and other travel stocks have obviously fallen heavily. Hong Kong has detected two confirmed cases of the new variant just as Hong Kong and China were considering quarantine-free travel. S&P 500 (-0.93%) and DAX (-1.82%) futures are also much weaker. Elsewhere, in Japan, CPI rose +0.5% year-on-year (+0.4% consensus and +0.1% previously), on the back of 16-month high fuel prices. With the US out on holiday for Thanksgiving, there wasn’t much going on yesterday after a very quiet day in markets. The variant news was only slowly creeping into the news flow so it hardly impacted trading. But in keeping with the theme of recent days, both inflation and the latest covid wave in Europe remained very much in the picture as jitters continue to increase that we could see further lockdowns as we move towards Christmas. Starting with the headline moves, European equities did actually show signs of stabilising yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.42% thanks to a broad-based advance across the continent. In fact that’s actually the index’s best daily performance in over three weeks, although that’s not reflecting any particular strength, but instead the fact the index inched steadily but persistently towards a record high before selling off again a week ago. Other indices moved higher across the continent too, with the FTSE 100 (+0.33%), the CAC 40 (+0.48%) and the DAX (+0.25%) all posting similar advances. These will all likely reverse this morning. One piece of news we did get came from the ECB, who released the account of their monetary policy meeting for October. Something the minutes stressed was the importance that the Governing Council maintain optionality in their policy settings, with one part acknowledging the growing upside risks to inflation, but also saying “it was deemed important for the Governing Council to avoid an overreaction as well as unwarranted inaction, and to keep sufficient optionality in calibrating its monetary policy measures to address all inflation scenarios that might unfold.” Against this backdrop, 10yr bond yields moved lower across multiple countries, with those on bunds (-2.3ps), OATs (-2.3bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps) all declining. There was also a flattening in all 3 yield curves as well, with the 2s10s slope in Germany (-3.0bps), France (-3.7bps) and Italy (-2.8bps) shifting lower. And the moves also coincided with a continued widening in peripheral spreads, with both the Spanish and the Greek spreads over 10yr bund yields widening to their biggest levels in over a year. Of course, one of the biggest concerns in Europe right now remains the pandemic, and yesterday saw a number of fresh measures announced as policymakers seek to get a grip on the latest wave. In France, health minister Veran announced various measures, including the expansion of the booster rollout to all adults, and a reduction in the length of time between the initial vaccination and the booster shot to 5 months from 6. Meanwhile in the Czech Republic, the government declared a state of emergency and approved tighter social distancing measures, including the closure of restaurants and bars at 10pm. And in Finland, the government have said that bars and restaurants not using Covid certificates will not be able to serve alcohol after 5pm. All this came as the European Medicines Agency recommended that the Pfizer vaccine be approved for children aged 5-11, which follows the decision to approve the vaccine in the US. Their recommendation will now go to the European Commission for a final decision. There wasn’t much in the way of data at all yesterday, though German GDP growth in Q3 was revised down to show a +1.7% expansion (vs. +1.8% previous estimate). Looking at the details, private consumption was the only driver of growth (+6.2%), with government consumption (-2.2%), machinery and equipment (-3.7%) and construction (-2.3%) all declining over the quarter. To the day ahead now, and data releases include French and Italian consumer confidence for November, as well as the Euro Area M3 money supply for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Visco, Schnabel, Centeno, Panetta and Lane, and BoE chief economist Pill. Tyler Durden Fri, 11/26/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 26th, 2021

Futures Drift Higher In Quiet, Holiday Session

Futures Drift Higher In Quiet, Holiday Session US equity futures rose (ahead of a cash session that is closed for Thanksgiving holiday), European stocks were mixed and Asian snapped a three-day losing streak on Thursday, hurt by the U.S. dollar which continued to march higher as investors bet on interest rates rising more quickly in the United States than in other major economies such as Japan and the euro zone. Overnight Goldman (which only a few weeks ago brought forward its liftoff forecast by one year to July 2002) said that it now expects the Fed "to announce at its December meeting that it is doubling the pace of tapering to $30bn per month starting in January." That forecast, however, has not spooked futures with S&P 500 and Nasdaq eminis rising by 7 points (0.14%) and 28 points (0.17%) respectively, in a listless session - trading volumes on the MSCI’s gauge of world equities slid 18% from its 30-day average. The dollar rose again, hitting a fresh 16-month high. Remy Cointreau SA jumped 11% in Europe on an earnings beat. Base metals rallied, with nickel near the highest level in seven years. Unlike recent sharp drawdowns, on Wednesday U.S. stocks proved resilient to a slew of strong economic data and Fed minutes on Wednesday that hinted at stagflationary concerns and supported expectations for a quicker removal of stimulus by the Fed. And while inflation concerns deepened, and traders appeared in no mood to miss a year-end calendar meltup, rising bets not only for a quicker taper, but also an earlier liftoff of interest rates, suggest caution may return after Thanksgiving. “The market mood is rather OK-ish after the minutes,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “At this point, it makes sense to expect an earlier, and maybe a steeper rate normalization from the Fed.” European stocks traded off opening highs with Euro Stoxx 50 up as much as 0.7% before stalling and trading up 0.25% last. Utilities, tech and financial services are the strongest performers; travel remains under pressure as Covid measures are still in focus. MSCI’s global equity benchmark headed for the biggest advance since Nov. 16 as European traders shrugged off a worsening Covid-19 situation in the continent. The Stoxx 600 gauge was boosted by utilities and real estate companies. Remy Cointreau soared to a record high after the French distiller reported first-half results that Citigroup Inc. called “truly exceptional.” Earlier in the session, Asian equities were poised to snap a three-day losing streak, as traders continued to weigh the prospects of higher inflation and faster-than-expected tapering by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.3% Thursday, with Japanese stocks among the leaders as the dollar held a three-day advance against the yen. In Hong Kong, shares of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd's (1638.HK) rose as much as 24% on their return to trading, after the embattled Chinese developer said it was offering bondholders an option to exchange existing bonds with new bonds having an extended maturity, to improve financial stability. In India, Reliance shares returned to a price level reached prior to the scrapping of the Indian conglomerate’s deal with Saudi Aramco.  Asian stocks are hovering near a six-week low as a strong dollar remains a headwind for emerging-market equities, while higher U.S. Treasury yields have dragged down technology and other growth stocks around the region. The latest Fed minutes suggested it will accelerate the pace of tapering and rate hikes if inflation persistently stays above the targeted rate and maintains its uptrend, said Banny Lam, head of research at CEB International Investment. “Strong dollar concerns remain intact on earlier-than-expected rate hikes, intensifying the inflation of emerging markets.” South Korean stocks were among the biggest decliners after the nation’s central bank hiked its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1%, as expected, citing faster inflation. In broad terms, "when it comes to regional equities allocation, we're watching the U.S. dollar which is making new highs and that is a headwind for emerging market equities," said Fook-Hien Yap, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered Bank wealth management. "The market is now pricing in more than two hikes next year, but we think that is overly aggressive. We are only looking for about one hike next year," said Yap. These expectations have pushed U.S. treasury yields higher, albeit inconsistently, with benchmark 10 year notes last yielding 1.6427% having risen as high as 1.6930% on Wednesday. U.S. Treasuries will not trade on Thursday because of the Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. stock markets will also be closed and will have a shortened session on Friday. Sure enough, fixed income markets are quiet. Bund and gilt curves bull flatten a touch, cash Treasuries remain closed for Thanksgiving. In other central bank news, the Bank of Korea raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, as widely expected, as concern about rising household debt and inflation offset uncertainty around a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index recovered Asia’s small weakness to trade flat. SEK is the best performer in G-10 with EUR/SEK down 0.4% after the Riksbank tweaked inflation forecasts slightly and signaled that they see a case for a higher benchmark rate in 2024. NZD and AUD lag with most majors trading a narrow range. The dollar is trading near its highest in almost five years versus the Japanese currency at 115.3 yen, and nearly 18 months to the euro which was at $1.1206. In commodities, oil prices were mixed after a turbulent few days in which the United States said it would release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with China, India, South Korea, Japan and Britain to try to cool oil prices after calls to OPEC+ to pump more went unheeded. However, investors laughed at the programme's effectiveness, leading to price gains. Brent crude was last at $82.14 a barrel, down 0.1%. Action continued to heat up in the base metals market. Nickel rose in London toward the highest level since May 2014 on a closing basis as shrinking inventories pointed to tight supply. Aluminum and copper extended their two-day increase to at least 2% each. Looking at the day ahead, it's a fairly quiet calendar given the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. On the central bank side however, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Elderson and Schnabel, along with BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Haskel. On top of that, the ECB will release the account of their October meeting, and data releases include the German GfK consumer confidence reading for December. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equities traded mixed following on from the tentative mood in US where the major indices headed into the Thanksgiving holiday with a slight positive bias although upside was capped as participants digested a deluge of mixed data releases and hawkish leaning FOMC Minutes which suggested an increased likelihood of a taper adjustment. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was choppy as outperformance in tech and miners was counterbalanced by losses in consumer stocks, energy and the top-weighted financials sector, while mixed capex data which showed a larger than expected contraction for Q3 further added to the headwinds. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) outperformed and reclaimed the 29,500 level after the recent favourable currency flows and stimulus optimism with Japan considering offering a JPY 5k inbound travel subsidy and is planning a JPY 22.1tln government bond sale as part of economic stimulus and extra budget. KOSPI (-0.4%) softened amid a widely expected 25bps rate hike by the BoK and with BoK Governor Lee suggesting the potential for another hike in Q1 next year. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) lacked direction amid ongoing frictions including issues related to Taiwan and after the US Commerce Department placed 12 Chinese companies/entities on its entity list due to national security concerns, while EU ambassadors approved to renew sanctions on four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses. However, the downside for Chinese bourses was limited after another tepid PBoC liquidity effort and with a local press report noting that China is to use more fiscal policy to support growth. There were also reports that Chengdu city launched measures to help developers with cash problems in obtaining funds, while Kaisa Group shares saw a double-digit percentage jump on reopen from a three-week trading halt after it offered to exchange bonds for new bonds with an extended maturity in an effort to improve financial stability and remain afloat. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound after the sideways price action seen in global counterparts and cautious risk tone in Asia, while the results of the latest 40yr JGB auction were also inconclusive with a weaker b/c offset by an increase in the low price. European cash equities (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; Stoxx 600 +0.2%) trade on a modestly in the green but off best levels as bourses’ attempt to reclaim some of the lost ground seen throughout the week somewhat lost momentum, with the Stoxx 600 down 1.3% WTD. Macro drivers for the region remain a combination of this week’s (slightly stale) survey metrics, ECB speak and COVID angst with the latter providing a bulk of the direction for European assets this week. The handover from the APAC region was a somewhat mixed one as the Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) continued to benefit from favourable currency flows and ongoing stimulus hopes whilst Chinese stocks (Shanghai Comp -0.2%) digested a combination of US-China tensions over Taiwan, EU sanctions on China and expectations of domestic fiscal measures to support growth. Futures in the US (ahead of the early close) are currently on a mildly firmer footing (ES +0.3%) however, traders will likely not pay much credence to these moves given that the cash markets are closed today. The latest BofA flow show noted that stocks saw just their second week of outflows for the year, albeit equities have posted USD 839bln of inflows in 2021 which is more than the USD 785bln seen in the past 19 years combined. Elsewhere, SocGen is of the view that the bull market is not over for European equities and the cycle has further room to run into next year as inflation peaks and Fed-ECB policy diverges. SocGen’s end-2022 target of 520 implies a 9% upside from current levels. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with the Food & Beverage sector a top performer amid gains in Remy Cointreau (+11%) who sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 post-earnings which saw the Co. raise its profit outlook. In sympathy, Pernod Ricard (+2.0%), Campari (+1.1%) and Diageo (+0.8%) are all seen higher. To the downside, Travel & Leisure names lag amid ongoing losses in sector-heavyweight Evolution (-5.6%) with the latest update for the Co. noting it has contacted New Jersey regulators and launched an internal probe following accusations the company is conducting business in US blacklisted countries. Also of note for the sector, reports suggest that the EU is set to endorse a 9-month limit on COVID-19 vaccine validity in travel. Finally, Vivo Energy (+20%) is seen higher on the session after Vitol reached an agreement to purchase the Co. for USD 1.85/shr. In FX, the index sees a mild pullback in early European trade on Thanksgiving Day Holiday, after notching a fresh YTD peak yesterday at 96.938 with traders also weighing end-of-month flows. Yesterday's FOMC Minutes had little impact on the Buck, but the release stated the Fed should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for FFR sooner if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Fed objective. Some participants preferred a somewhat faster pace of reductions. DXY trades within a narrow 96.649-832 range. Ahead, the calendar is empty from a US standpoint. EUR, GBP - The single currency stands are the current G10 winner, albeit within narrow ranges in holiday-thinned trade. Desks suggest that light short-covering may warrant given the recent COVID-led downside. On the COVID front, reports suggested the EU is to endorse a 9-month limit on COVID-19 vaccine validity in travel. Sources earlier in the week suggested that updated EU travel guidance will likely be released today, whilst France is also today poised to provide more colour on COVID-related restrictions. EUR/USD has reclaimed a 1.1200 handle but trades within yesterday's 1.1184-1.1250 range. GBP/USD meanwhile is relatively flat within a 20-pip parameter, with not much to report aside from overnight commentary highlighting the 'substantial distance' between the UK and EU on the Northern Ireland protocol. Ahead, participants will be on the lookout for commentary from BoE governor Bailey and Haskel. Note, some participants also highlight chunky OpEx tomorrow in GBP/USD comprising of some GBP 1.3bln around 1.3400-10. AUD, NZD - Antipodeans are on the back foot, with the NZD continuing to lag post-RBNZ and following a narrower NZ trade deficit as the AUD/NZD cross inches closer towards 1.0500 after confirming support around the 1.0450 region. AUD/USD was unfazed by lower-than-expected Q3 Aussie Capex. Desks highlight support at 0.7170 (Sept 29th low) ahead of the YTD low at 0.7106. Technicians may also be cognizant of the 21 DMA (0.7346) set to cross through the 100 DMA (0.7346) and 50 DMA (0.7344). JPY - The JPY is relatively flat on the day within a 115.30-45 band, with desks suggesting bids are eye towards 115.00 and offers above 115.50. OpEx is interesting; USD/JPY sees USD 1.2bln between 115.10 and around USD 800mln at strike 115.50. SEK, HUF - The Riksbank maintained its Rate at 0.00% and asset holdings unchanged as expected and said the repo rate will be raised in the latter part of 2024 – with the Q4 2024 rate path seen averaging at 0.19%. Overall, the decision was in-line with expectations. The SEK saw some modest upside heading into the announcement, but on the largely as-expected release, EUR/SEK remained in proximity to the pre-announcement level of 10.20. Meanwhile, the Hungarian Central Bank announced a 40bps hike to its 1-week Repo Rate in an expected but unscheduled move. EUR/HUF moved from 367.25 to 365.40 on the hike. In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are choppy following the earlier softness at the start of the session, which was seemingly a function of a mild deterioration across equity markets, also coinciding with Ifax reports that the US is trying to persuade Russia to lift oil output. Sticking with OPEC+, the morning also saw commentary out of Kuwait and the UAE, who both signalled open-mindedness heading into next week’s meeting, although WSJ sources yesterday suggested the UAE does not see the need to pause current plans. WTI Jan has dipped back under USD 78/bbl (vs high USD 76.65/bbl) while Brent Feb resides just north of USD 80.50/bbl (vs high 81.40/bbl). Ahead, participants will be balancing OPEC+ sources and commentary to get a more solid idea on which route the group will likely take next week. Elsewhere, spot gold remains caged within a cluster of DMAs including the 100 (1,793), 200 (1,791) and 50 (1,789). Base metals are once again firmer with traders citing bullish commentary on Chinese infrastructure. LME copper inches closer towards USD 10k/t whilst Dalian iron ore futures overnight stretched their rally to a fifth consecutive session, spot prices topped USD 100/t. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that this week we published our 2022 credit strategy outlook. See here for the full report. Craig has also put out a more detailed HY 2022 strategy document here and Karthik a more detailed IG equivalent here. Basically we think spreads will widen as much as 30-40bps in IG and 120-160bps in HY due to a response to a more dramatic appreciation of the Fed being well behind the curve. This sort of move is consistent with typical mid-cycle ranges through history. We do expect this to mostly retrace in H2 as markets recover from the shock and growth remains decent and liquidity still high. Today will likely prove a quieter one in markets given the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. But ahead of that, risk assets eventually climbed a wall of worry yesterday as investors moved to dial up their hawkish bets on the Fed’s policy trajectory, just as the latest Covid wave in Europe further contributed to investor concerns. Nevertheless, after trading in the red most of the day, global equity markets just managed to finish the day in positive territory, with the S&P 500 gaining +0.23% and the STOXX 600 advancing +0.09%. First, on the hawkish Fed policy trajectory, our US economics team updated their calls to expect just that. In a note yesterday (link here), they outlined expectations for the Fed to double the pace of tapering at the December FOMC meeting following better-than-expected inflation and employment data since the November FOMC. This would bring monthly reductions in Treasury purchases to $20bn and MBS purchases to $10bn, which would bring the end of taper forward to March. In line, they’re bringing their call for liftoff forward a month to June 2022. Our econ team weren’t the only ones to adjust their outlook. San Francisco Fed President Daly, one of the biggest doves on the FOMC and a voter in December, said in an interview that, “if (strong inflation and jobs data continue) then those are the things that would say, looks like we need faster tapering”. Furthermore, she also said that “I am very open and, in fact, leaning towards that we’ll want to raise rates from the zero lower bound at the end of next year”. So if one of the Fed’s biggest doves is feeling this way, then that showcases the shift in thinking that could be taking place more broadly on the committee. Front-end US rates sold off following the comment and yesterday’s data releases, which did nothing to change the recent hawkish turn from Fed officials. In fact, by the close of trade investors were fully pricing in a hike by June, and pricing about two-thirds probability of a May hike. They are still projecting three full hikes in the next calendar year. You’ll know from the credit outlook that we continue to think the Fed is way behind the curve and that catch-up will likely cause some volatility in H1 with notably wider credit spreads. See the link at the top for more on our view. Those moves were given some fresh impetus by stronger-than-expected US data, of which plenty arrived in advance of the holiday today. First, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through November 20 fell to 199k (vs. 260k expected), which is their lowest level since 1969 and the first time we’ve seen a reading comfortably around or beneath their levels immediately before the pandemic. Claims are always a bit all over the place around Thanksgiving due to seasonal adjustments so we may need a couple of weeks before the trend can be confirmed. Secondly, we then had the second estimate of Q3 GDP in the US, which was revised up a tenth to show an annualised growth rate of +2.1%. Third, the personal income and spending data came in above expectations in October, with personal income up +0.5%, and personal spending up +1.3%, which in both cases was three-tenths higher than expected. And finally, although the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index was still at a decade low, the final measure came in at 67.4, above the preliminary reading of 66.8. Long-term inflation expectations edged back up a tenth to 3.0%, where it was in September and May this year, the joint highest readings since 2013. All that created additional momentum in front-end US rates, with the 2yr yield (+2.6bps) and the 5yr yield (+0.3bps) both rising to fresh post-pandemic highs as the prospect of faster tapering and earlier rate hikes came into view. That put further upward pressure on the dollar as well, with the index strengthening by +0.33% yesterday to hit a 16-month high, having now risen by over +6% since its low in late May just 6 months ago. Of course the flip side was that a number of currencies shifted lower vis-à-vis the dollar, and the euro dipped below the $1.12 mark at the end of the day for the first time since June 2020. Amidst the moves higher in front-end Treasury yields, another round of curve flattening saw longer-dated ones fall back yesterday, with the 10yr yield down -3.1bps to 1.63%. That flattening took the 5s30s curve down -6.9bps to its lowest level since the initial market turmoil at the start of the pandemic back in March 2020, having fallen by over 100bps since its intraday high back in February. 2s10s twisted -5.7bps flatter as well, as investors priced in near-term Fed policy action that could engender a hard landing that hurts longer term growth. It was a different picture in Europe however, where curves steepened for the most part and the moves lower in long-end rates were much more subdued. By the close, yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (+0.0bps) and BTPs (+1.3bps) had seen relatively little movement, as investors continue to expect that the ECB will take a much more cautious approach to raising rates relative to the Fed. Overnight in Asia markets are again mixed but being led by the Nikkei (+0.68%) and the Hang Seng (+0.14%), while the Shanghai Composite (-0.10%), CSI (-0.31%) and KOSPI (-0.34%) are losing ground. In a widely expected move the Bank of Korea raised rates for a second time since August, taking the policy rate to 1.0%. The BOK revised its inflation outlook to 2.3% for 2021 and 2% for 2022 which was expected. Futures markets are higher with the S&P 500 (+0.28%) and DAX (+0.35%) trading in the green. Treasuries are closed. Back to yesterday, and one of the main pieces of news came from Germany, where there was finally confirmation that the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP had agreed a full coalition deal. In terms of the economic measures, the notable ones include a restoration of the debt brake from 2023, which has been suspended during the pandemic, as well as an increase in the minimum wage to €12 per hour. We’ll wait to see if dealing with the climate emergency is carved out to some degree from the debt brake. I suspect it will be in some form. Assuming the deal is agreed by each of the parties, who will put the agreement to internal party approval processes, that could see the SPD’s Olaf Scholz become Chancellor in the week commencing December 6, bringing an end to Chancellor Merkel’s 16-year tenure. That new coalition will be coming into office at a difficult time in light of the latest covid wave across Europe, and in his remarks yesterday, Scholz said that they would consider targeted vaccination mandates for those working with vulnerable groups. That came as the Bild newspaper reported that Chancellor Merkel asked the members of the new coalition to impose a 2-week nationwide lockdown, but this was rejected in a meeting on Tuesday evening. Overnight Germany reported 75,961 new cases, up from 66,884 on Tuesday. Other countries are also moving to ramp up restrictions across the continent, with French health minister Veran expected to announce fresh measures at a news conference today, whilst Italy approved new curbs on the unvaccinated, including entry restrictions to enter restaurants and cinemas. Elsewhere, Slovakia announced a new lockdown that will see residents only permitted to leave home for work, education, or essential activities, with the closure of restaurants and non-essential shops for two weeks. A reminder that we are adding a daily G7 plus important country new cases chart every day in this email blast and a fatalities chart in the full pdf under “view report”. The day ahead has a fairly quiet calendar given the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. On the central bank side however, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Elderson and Schnabel, along with BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Haskel. On top of that, the ECB will release the account of their October meeting, and data releases include the German GfK consumer confidence reading for December. Tyler Durden Thu, 11/25/2021 - 08:40.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 25th, 2021

GreenWood Investors 3Q21 Commentary: Defense, Offense & Conviction

GreenWood Investors commentary for the third quarter ended September 2021, titled, “Defense, Offense & Conviction.” Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more When Defense Misfires “Offense wins games. Defense wins championships.” This past quarter, much of my curiosity has been focused on the differences between offense and defense. Given I’ve spent little time watching […] GreenWood Investors commentary for the third quarter ended September 2021, titled, “Defense, Offense & Conviction.” if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more When Defense Misfires “Offense wins games. Defense wins championships.” This past quarter, much of my curiosity has been focused on the differences between offense and defense. Given I’ve spent little time watching team sports, it’s been an interesting exploration. As my mind was occupied by defining an offensive playbook for our two coinvestments, we took our eyes off the ball of our protective, defense-oriented portfolio activities. The performance in the quarter was impacted by a 4% headwind generated by one particular short, which was the primary reason our fund underperformed indices in the quarter. While it was a painful lesson, we immediately evolved our short process in order to prevent our defensive measures from ever hurting our performance to such an extent going forward. Cutting to the chase, the performance in the quarter for the Global Micro Fund was -7.7% net (+30.5% YTD), and this compares to our benchmark MSCI ACWI index returning -1.1% in the quarter (+11.5% YTD). Without any FX headwinds, euro-denominated Luxembourg fund returned -3.3% net (+39.4% YTD). Separate account composites had similar returns, as Global Micro strategy returned -8.1% net (+15.0% YTD) and our longest-running and long-only Traditional accounts returned -6.8% net (16.5% YTD). The Builders Fund I returned -5.2% net in the quarter (+84.5% YTD) driven partially by foreign exchange. Builders Fund II, which was launched in the quarter, returned +3.0% net (+3.0% YTD). Aside from the one short mentioned, our returns were also impacted by corrections at Superdry PLC (LON:SDRY) and Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ:PTON), each taking away roughly 2% from our performance in the quarter. They are both experiencing very different situations right now in the aftermath of Covid, but both are pressing their offense strategies with increased vigor. We remain undeterred with Superdry despite popular skepticism on the brand’s turnaround. Such perspectives look mismatched with a reinvigorated influencer strategy targeting a whole new generation, which have just driven same-store-sales to positive territory on a two-year stack. This is ahead of a pivotal autumn-winter season, when its jackets, coats and sweaters have traditionally shined. Having missed last winter due to Covid, we are excited to see the new product resonate with an entirely new base of consumers. We recently followed the Chairman and CEO’s insider buys, and purchased more shares on weakness. We continue to be encouraged by the progress made; and for a slightly longer discussion on where our thoughts are on Superdry, click here to see a tweet thread. Peloton has experienced a round trip of home workout demand back to pre-covid levels. Thus, while it is launching new products and new geographies, and retains an industry-leading engaged base of 6.2 million exercisers with low monthly subscription churn, this position will have to return to old fashioned marketing to continue on its path towards its incredibly ambitious goal of impacting 100 million users’s fitness routines every month.. With its customer satisfaction, as measured by the Net Promotor Score, remaining one of the highest, if not the highest, in the world, we would not bet against this heavily engaged cult of growing endorphin-filled users. We believe the company still has a very significant market opportunity to both attack and define. Revisiting The Defense Playbook “Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.” Warren Buffett Stretching the offense and defense analogies over to investing, this past year has rewarded risk-taking (offensive) strategies, particularly those that are furthest out on the risk curve. But over the long-term, value-oriented investing wins the championship. That means taking a conservative underwriting approach to investment opportunities and maintaining a defensive posture when everyone else is doing the opposite. In our opinion, that also means running a short book, which allow us to remain opportunistic in periods of greater stress. It is not a good time to be reducing a defensive posture, in our opinion. Over the first 11 years of GreenWood’s existence, we have almost never been idea-constrained. Rather, we have been only constrained by the capacity we have to analyze the large opportunity set. That has typically meant, aside from the earliest years, we have had minimal cash left over. Given we have gravitated towards misunderstood assets and areas neglected by robotic index funds, not only does this portfolio tend to not carry a large cash balance, but it has exhibited more volatility than an index. Accordingly, carrying a short book is essential for us to be able to remain opportunistic in periods of stress. And quite frankly, our defense track record could use some improvement. While this defensive posture paid off in 2008, 2011, and 2018, we had few opportunistic shorts going into 2016 and 2020, right when we needed them. I’m personally committed to improving on that 3-2 market defense track record. I’m also committed to lowering any significant portfolio tilt towards specific factors, as our fundamental research capabilities are not able to be matched on a macroeconomic scale. There are too many factors and estimates to know anything on a large scale with any degree of certainty. For us, conviction is the most important function of an asset manager. It was with that intention we have been carrying a full short book ever since late 2020. And that short book largely paid off over the first half of this year, as the current environment has proved to be fertile in finding over-valued, value-less businesses. In fact, most of these shorts underperformed the market so quickly and so dramatically, that short book turnover caused Chris and I to run on a faster and faster treadmill throughout this year. When we found the short that ended up causing us so much pain in the quarter, it sounded too good to be true. It was a perfect offset to some of our chunkier portfolio factor exposures, but even more, it became clear this was not only a terrible business model, but it was likely a fraud. As Chris and I dug further into the business, there was a never-ending string of yarn that we kept pulling, and the more we pulled, the more damning the evidence was on the founder, company and target markets. In that excited process, we failed to appreciate the risk posed by the meme-trading phenomenon, in the assumption that an Italian company was unlikely to get caught up in the retail trading frenzy that has generated so many distortions elsewhere. Bypassing that debate proved to be our mistake, as the less liquid nature of the stock meant that it was more easily manipulated higher for a few months. As it was getting squeezed, I took action to eliminate that portfolio risk, even knowing that the stock would eventually go to zero. And in the wake of that experience, we also exited other shorts that had largely run their course, but that posed some possible retail trading risk. In our post-mortems, that are published on our investors-only research area, we identified one of the problems we were trying to solve for was the treadmill we found ourselves on. Because each piece of incremental evidence made it more and more compelling, we actually didn’t pause to have a proper bull-bear debate, which is what we have done for every other position. We had put too much pressure on ourselves to maintain a timely short book, and in many ways that papered over the obvious truth that the borrow was hard to obtain and liquidity was not accommodative. We revised our ranking framework to ensure there is a significantly higher bar for less liquid shorts in the future. Furthermore, we decided that any “gaps” in needed short exposure would more easily be filled immediately with index funds that could directly help offset some of the chunkier factor risks to our portfolio, namely European value stocks. We don’t intend to hold these index hedges forever, but believe it will help take pressure off of us to prematurely add new shorts to the portfolio. We have a lot of candidates in the backlog, but we are determined to ensure that we get the timing right as opposed to just the company thesis and factor exposure. At their core, our defensive moves should first do no harm. This analogy mirrors perhaps the most quoted Buffett lesson about rule number one, noted above. In that vein, our current short portfolio is comprised of large, liquid index constituents with very low short interests, cheap borrows, and are largely well-loved. Similar to most of our short positions in the past, they also have mounting liabilities as decades of unconscious behaviors or corruption have eroded the core values of the businesses. We recently published our research on two newer positions on our investor-only research site. These shorts have multiple catalysts over the next few quarters, that we believe, will cause both a material impact to their financials while also possibly downgrading the market’s behavioral narrative. More Conscious Than ESG “Sustainability is built into our business model. If we are focused on the long term, there is no conflict between profitability and the interests of stakeholders. If you are focused on the short term, there is. It’s that simple!” Sir Martin Sorrell Most importantly, these two businesses that we are short have some deeply unconscious features. While each case is different, this means that we’ve found evidence of corruption or deliberate sales of defective or toxic products for decades prior to being discontinued. All of these behaviors are only now catching up to these companies and present material downside risks to these businesses that have historically been run for short-term profit maximization as opposed to long-term value creation or innovation. These are the kinds of companies that are causing the ESG movement to gain major traction around the world. But while we applaud action being taken on protecting the environment, the ESG movement is not solving the root of the problem. The movement is addressing the symptoms rather than the causes. In a white paper that I can’t wait to publish, we’ll show evidence that the fundamental issue facing business today is one of unaccountable agents seeking immediate gratification. There’s a lack of ownership and accountability in a market that continues to outsource much of the “ratings” to agents. Large funds managed by agents with no skin in the game are relying on ratings agencies, also with no skin in the game, to dictate qualitative criteria that often don’t tie to value creation, but rather liability minimization. And that is important, but not sufficient on its own. It is defense without the offense. Or sometimes, it’s all marketing covering up flimsy foundations. Owners or founders exhibit more long-term, conscious capitalist behavior. They generally don’t give quarterly profit guidance, and instead prefer to focus on their customer satisfaction and employee morale. They invest more in their own businesses rather than paying that capital out to shareholders or to acquisition targets. Great shareholder returns are the result of a highly conscious business model, not the goal in and of itself. Exhibit 1: Builders Have Happier Customers & More Engaged Employees Source: GreenWood Investors, OO = owner operators, DC = dual share class structures, S&P = S&P 1200 Global Index But what does it mean actually to be conscious? That’s the subject that Anil Seth seeks to answer in his latest work, Being You. In seeking to demystify the mystery of consciousness, he discusses the most robust model that has been put forward for understanding and measuring how conscious an organism is. Integration information theory (IIT) postulates that consciousness is measured by the degree to which information is integrated into a system or action. Seth explains, “This underpins the main claim of the theory, which is that a system is conscious to the extent that its whole generates more information than its parts.” This concept struck me, as it has many direct parallels to well-worn concepts in investing. Of course it makes sense that the more conscious an organization is, the better it is at integrating information into action. But what really struck me here is that using this IIT framework- an organization is only conscious if the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. To me this infers that if the parts of a business don’t come together to produce something more powerful or valuable than the sum of those individual units, segments or components, the business is not a conscious business. Seth later explained how conscious perceptions are largely built from best guesses and confidence. A key insight of Bayesian inference is that perception is largely a function of updating beliefs about the world based on the precision and reliability of new information. Our minds seek to eliminate prediction errors everywhere and all the time, and we do so by converging our beliefs to the level of conviction we have in the information. In this age of ubiquitous and free information, we differentiate ourselves by the level of conviction we have in the quality and reliability of the insights we have. Conviction is the key. And as Seth later demonstrated, such insights are virtually worthless if not paired with action. This echoes the sentiment that Warren Buffett expressed in talking about getting fat pitches in one’s career, and that one must “swing big,” as they don’t happen very often. This is indeed why we are “swinging big” with Coinvestment II, as this is one of the fattest pitches we’ve ever been thrown. Moving From Defense to Offense “High expectations are the key to everything.” -Sam Walton As my mind was more occupied with offensive capital allocation strategies in the quarter, this pairing of action with insight particularly spoke to me, highly conscious offense playbook strategies are rare. Instead the norm is that most offensive actions are typically made from a defensive motive, and are not based on novel insights. As I wrote in last year’s fourth quarter letter, we endeavor to only get involved in turnaround situations where we either have a board presence, or where a founder or owner operates the business. In our view, these managers have been more resilient in defending their businesses from adversity. Simply put, they cannot just give up and move on. As Covid ripped through the world and economies, far too many managers decided to give up. In the depths of the Covid crisis, at the Presidential inauguration ceremony, National Youth Poet Laureate Amanda Gorman articulated rather eloquently that, “Your optimism will never be as powerful as it is in that exact moment when you want to give it up.” Founders are inherently optimistic, and they don’t give up. In exploring the differences between defense and offense, I’ve come to realize that it is even more important to have an owner-oriented management culture when moving from defense to offense. Defense is inherently reactive, reacting to “known knowns” or “known unknowns.” Reactions are easier than proaction. Traditional boards are typically very good at liability minimization. But as important as liability reduction is, these actions do not create value. New business and invention is inherently venturing into the unknown, seeing what others don’t, and pursuing the path untravelled. It comes naturally to a founder or owner, whose authorship imbues the business with the optimistic, entrepreneurial impulse that often started it in the first place. As my friend Bill Carey has articulated, most managers compensated via stock options act more like stock brokers as opposed to owners. Similar to brokers, their time horizons have shrunk considerably. They are simply rent-seeking for a short period of time. And as my friend Chris Mayer likes to say, “no one washes a rental.” Our research on the differences in the behaviors of owner operators and these renters, shows these renters are not very good at offense strategies either. They are very good at competitive reactions, cost cutting and margin optimization. These are important, just as any defense strategy is, but they typically fail to create any lasting value. The value that is captured from these tools generally only lasts as long as the brief period in which the manager’s stock options vest. Given 70-90% of mergers and acquisitions fail, and stock repurchases have taken a notably pro-cyclical, buy-high, sell-low, history, these renters have a typically poor track record in value-creating initiatives and capital deployment. This short-term rental behavior often results in mediocre outcomes. As the late great Sergio Marchionne regularly reminded, “mediocrity is not worth the trip.” Marchionne acted like an owner even before he was one. And he created so much value that his net worth neared $1 billion when he shuffled off this mortal coil. While much of that was indeed generated by options that he exercised, such options were struck at twice and three times the level at which he came in to rescue Fiat in 2004. His package inspired the design of CTT’s options package for top and first level managers. Sergio was very good at seeing things others didn’t. He and his venerable team of managers, to whom he dedicated so much of his energy, were very good at transforming ignored products and assets into gold. Of particular note, Jeep grew from just over 2%of the market in the US to just under 6% when he passed- and it became a truly global brand. He invented Ferrari’s Icona series, which made the irregular limited edition profits part of the regular P&L of the brand without diluting the exclusivity of such models. He and parent holding company Exor have continued to provide much of the inspiration behind our activities with both coinvestments. We endeavor to replicate their divide & conquer strategy, which allowed the Fiat Group to become stronger as stand-alone Fiat-Chrysler (now Stellantis), Ferrari, CNH, and soon to be Iveco Group. Just as Sergio advised the few believers throughout his career, investors will be “owning multiple pieces of paper” as the journey unfolds. In hindsight, we can all agree on the value creation prowess of him and his team. But we easily forget that for most of his career, he was faced mostly by skeptics and doubters. He was not afraid to look dumb. In his own words, “A lot of what I do is challenge assumptions . . . which often looks like you are asking stupid questions.” Being entrepreneurial, by definition, means taking the path untraveled, and heading into the unknown with daring boldness. Offense playbooks, by design, must take competition by surprise. Coming from a humble place with brands and companies that were ridiculed by competitors, when Sergio put medium-term plans out to the market, they were not timid. He would always aim higher than anyone, especially his competitors, believed he and his team could reach. And while not every target was always achieved, the formidable results speak for themselves. This past earnings season, as Twitter was the only social media company to deliver on guidance while also confirming the quarter ahead to be at least as good, the stock sold off materially as its monetizable daily active user (MDAU) targets in the medium-term were called into question. While founder Jack Dorsey is clearly unafraid to look foolish to the public, or even in front of congress, he also manages multiple businesses at the same time. Competitors openly make fun of him. But his team is exceptionally loyal to him, and they have set out very ambitious targets for themselves over the next few years. The recent sell-off in Twitter shares was like deja vu all over again, as I reminisced about the Fiat capital markets day in 2014, fittingly on Twitter in this tweet thread. With its product and revenue servers rebuilt, it can now innovate and launch new ad formats faster than ever before. We look forward to the Twitter team pressing its offense strategy as a major peer loses focus on its core business. Into The Unknown “Action is inseparable from perception. Perception and action are so tightly coupled that they determined and define each other. Every action alters perception by changing the incoming sensory data, and every perception is the way it is in order to help guide action. There is simply no point to perception in the absence of action.” Anil Seth, Being You What does it mean to move into offense? One thing very clear to us, is that it has to be a dynamic and reflexive approach. It cannot be built into a three or five year plan and remain fixed over that duration. As Anil Seth’s work on consciousness explains, a highly conscious being is constantly ingesting and integrating information, evolving actions based on reliability, precision and conviction. As capital-markets focused investors, we believe one of the highest values we can provide to our companies is information that can be integrated into their offense and defense playbooks. Thanks to our collaborative approach, we get nearly daily recommendations and thoughts from our investors with new information, new case studies, and new suggestions on how to continue iterating. One of the biggest differentiations between good and great investments, that is often overlooked, is the value added by good capital allocation- be it with a very well-done merger, opportunistic buyback or even more, venture-style investments that are almost in no one’s “model” or perception. Small acquisitions that bring new tools and managers can often upgrade the business model. As Clayton Christensen suggested in The Big Idea: The New M&A Playbook, these are often the most overlooked investments. But during the quarter, when posed with the question of how to best allocate capital over the long term, I found myself tongue tied. For it’s a dynamic and reflexive question to ask. It’s easy to see what to do right now, and where to build in the next few years. But sound capital allocation is a function of the opportunities that present themselves. It is also about creating new possibilities, particular ones that competitors don’t see. At CTT, with defensive, problem-solving actions becoming less of a focus, attention can now turn to offense. What that looks like in the near term, at least to me, should be continued progress and convergence on the strategy to become the Shopify of Iberia. With Portugal e-commerce order frequency at very small fractions of neighboring Spain, we believe it is CTT’s responsibility to make itself the most convenient and most cost effective way of conducting commerce. Through more parcel lockers, better digital tools, while maintaining or improving on best-in-class quality of service, we believe much of the responsibility to make online the most convenient commerce channel in Portugal will fall on CTT’s shoulders. Going further with online shop enabling, more cost effective payments tools, and an integrated fulfillment offer, that continues through to returns and customer service, it has every tool it needs to enable this digital transition. This convergence is happening at the same time EU recovery stimulus dollars will be directed towards digitalizing the economy. Case studies like Kaspi, which started as a bank, evolved into a payments company, then launched an e-commerce marketplace and then further expanded into logistics, provide more inspiration than any company in the logistics industry. This reminds me of Google’s earliest days, when its managers encouraged their teams to ignore the traditional competitors and instead go where other competitors hadn’t dared to venture- into the unknown. We believe CTT has greater competitive advantages than some “new economy” companies playing throughout the same e-commerce value chain, often trading at significantly higher valuation multiples. Whether we’re talking about fulfillment services, parcel lockers, or alternative purchase financing, it’s the customer relationship that differentiates and builds competitive advantages. That is why one of the first priorities of the new management was to improve customer satisfaction. And while some analysts that cover the company still use traditional methods to frame the opportunity, the shareholder base has largely transitioned away from income-oriented investors. More like-minded shareholders, aligned with management, can enable the team to build something truly great. Building Great Companies “The urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do.” DaVinci What started for us as an approach to separate the bank from the industrial company, and achieve a sum of parts valuation, has been upgraded to that of building a great compound machine. As Exor articulated in 2019, its purpose to “build great companies,” is an aspirational philosophy for us. While we certainly aren’t doing the building here, perhaps through setting the right strategic priorities, incentives, and providing timely and right information, we can assist in the build underway. Exor has provided an exemplary model of how to enable its teams to build greater value by dividing, conquering, and then often later combining with more synergistic peers. Just like Anil Seth described, the whole must be greater than the sum of the parts in a highly conscious organization. When a company’s sum of the parts is greater than the total, the organization is not conscious, and therefor not capable of adding material value. Just as Exor has executed masterfully in its portfolio companies over the past decade, the path forward is one of both dividing and one of conquering. Extending the business and commerce services that CTT provides is a natural offense-oriented positioning that further reinforces the strength of the whole. But there are other parts of this organization that aren’t adding as much to the sum total- those can, and should be separated to pursue their own offense playbooks in a more focused and agile manner. Such an approach goes well beyond ESG, and it goes well beyond most other broker-oriented management teams. It is a highly conscious capitalist approach, aligned with long term value creation and sustainability. And that process should result in considerable returns as an effect, not as a goal. As owner operators’ short, medium, and long term benchmark outperformance demonstrates, this strong alignment between management and ownership is a championship-winning combination. Exhibit 2: Owner Operators’ Stock Index Outperformance Source: GreenWood Investors In the months ahead, we anticipate thoroughly engaging with the management and board of the target at the Builders Fund II. This company is mirroring CTT’s current posture, in that it is in the process of finishing nearly a decade of defense-oriented actions. After years of strategic actions focused on fixing problematic areas, contracts or business dynamics, most of these reactive or defensive actions are increasingly passing into the rearview mirror. It is entering a new phase of life in a position to also divide and conquer, and it has exceptional assets. With both coinvestments representing a substantial portion of our net exposure, we move forward with conviction. While this quarter was a lesson that we, nor our companies, can lose sight of a strong defense strategy, we are increasingly looking forward to our portfolio pressing offense strategies moving forward. Committed to deliver, Steven Wood, CFA GreenWood Investors Updated on Nov 24, 2021, 4:37 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 24th, 2021

Futures Slide As Dollar Jumps, Yields Rebound Ahead Of Massive Data Dump

Futures Slide As Dollar Jumps, Yields Rebound Ahead Of Massive Data Dump For the third day in a row, US equity futures have been weighed down by rising (real) rates even as traders moderated their expectations for monetary-policy tightening after New Zealand’s measured approach to rate hikes where the central banks hiked rates but not as much as some had expected. Traders also braced for an epic data dump in the US, which includes is an epic data dump which includes an update to Q3 GDP, advance trade balance, initial jobless claims, wholesale and retail inventories, durable goods, personal income and spending, UMich consumer sentiment, new home sales, and the FOMC Minutes The two-year U.S. yield shed two basis points. The dollar extended its rising streak against a basket of peers to a fourth day. At 730am, S&P 500 e-mini futures dropped 0.3%, just off session lows, while Nasdaq futures dropping 0.34%. In premarket trading, Nordstrom sank 27% after the Seattle-based retailer posted third-quarter results featuring what Citi called a big earnings per share miss. The company reported higher labor and fulfillment costs in the third quarter while sales remained stubbornly below pre-pandemic levels and profit missed analyst estimates. Telecom Italia SpA surged in Europe on enhanced takeover interest. Oil prices fluctuated as producers and major consuming nations headed for a confrontation. Other notable premarket movers: Gap (GPS US) sank 20% premarket after the clothing retailer reported quarterly results that missed estimates and cut its net sales forecast for the full year. Analysts lowered their price targets. Nordstrom (JWN US) tumbles 27% in premarket after the Seattle-based retailer posted third-quarter results featuring what Citi called a big earnings per share miss. Jefferies, meanwhile, downgrades the stock to hold from buy as transformation costs are rising. Guess (GES US) posted quarterly results which analysts say included impressive sales and margins, and showed the company navigating supply-chain issues successfully. The shares closed 9.2% higher in U.S. postmarket trading. HP (HPQ US) shares are up 8.4% in premarket after quarterly results. Analysts note strong demand and pricing in the personal computer market. Meme stocks were mixed in premarket after tumbling the most since June on Tuesday as investors bailed out of riskier assets. Anaplan (PLAN US) slides 18% in premarket as a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss wasn’t enough to stem a downward trend. Analysts slashed price targets. Autodesk (ADSK US) shares slump 14% in premarket after the building software maker narrowed its full-year outlook. Analysts are concerned that issues with supply chains and the pandemic could impact its targets for 2023. GoHealth (GOCO US) gained 8.4% in postmarket trading after the insurer’s CEO and chief strategy officer added to their holdings. As Bloomberg notes, investors are on the edge as they face a wall of worry from a resurgence of Covid-19 in Europe to signs of persistent consumer-price growth. Damping inflation is now center-stage for policy makers, with ultra-loose, pandemic-era stimulus set to be wound down. The slew of U.S. data as well as Federal Reserve minutes due today may provide the next catalysts for market moves. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index erased earlier gains of up to 0.4% to trade down -0.1%, with tech and travel and leisure leading declines. Miners gained 0.8%, tracking higher copper prices on easing concerns over Chinese demand, while travel stocks slid over 1% on prospects of harsher travel curbs: Italy and France are debating new measures to cope with Covid’s resurgence while Germany isn’t ruling out fresh curbs. Oil stocks rose 1.2%, set for their biggest jump in over a month, with crude prices inching higher as investors remained sceptical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led release of oil from strategic reserves. Here are some of the most notable European equity movers: Mulberry shares surge as much as 24%, the most since March 12, after the U.K. luxury company swung to a 1H profit from a year earlier and reported an increase in sales. Telecom Italia shares rise as much as 10% following a Bloomberg report that KKR is considering to raise its offer for the company after top investor Vivendi said the bid was too low. However, the stock is still trading below the initial non-binding offer from KKR. Golden Ocean gains as much as 9.6%, most since Feb., after earnings. DNB says “Golden Ocean delivered solid Q3 results” and adds “Furthermore, guidance for Q4 should lift consensus estimates and solidify further dividend potential in our view.” Intertek shares gain as much as 6.7%, the most since May 2020, after the company issued a trading update. UBS says the company’s accelerating momentum and reiterated targets are “reassuring.” Aegon shares rise as much as 5.5% after Credit Suisse upgraded its recommendation to outperform from neutral and raised the PT to EU5.30 from EU4.00. IQE shares slump as much as 21% for the biggest intraday drop since March 2020, falling to their lowest level since June 2020 after the semiconductor company said it sees softening demand in 4Q. Genus shares fall as much 15% after the animal genetics firm lowered its FY22 earnings guidance, leading Peel Hunt and Liberum to cut estimates. European stocks are on course for weekly losses, as the return of COVID-19 curbs, rate hike and inflation concerns sparked fears of a weaker economic growth outlook. "There's a two-way pull between macro concerns and what's happening bottoms-up in terms of corporate profits," said Nick Nelson, head of European equity strategy at UBS, adding that while the third quarter has been one of the decade's best reporting seasons for Europe, macro concerns such as a rise in U.S. bond yields and COVID-19 cases have been holding stocks back. Earlier in the session, Asian equities declined, on track for a third-straight session of losses, as higher U.S. Treasury yields continued to weigh on technology stocks in the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.6%, with Japan stocks leading losses as traders returned from a holiday to access the prospect of tighter U.S. monetary policy to curb inflation. TSMC and Tencent were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge. READ: Samsung Plans $17 Billion Texas Chip Plant, Creating 2,000 Jobs The renomination of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair earlier this week has sent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to about levels near 1.65%, implying higher borrowing costs. That’s adding to concerns about weak earnings growth in Asia as well as ongoing supply-chain constraints. Investors will now turn their attention to U.S. gross domestic product data and FOMC minutes due out after Asian markets close Wednesday.  “A cautious tone may still seem to prevail for now,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia, said in a note. “Markets continue to shift their expectations towards a tighter Fed monetary policy.” New Zealand’s stock gauge added 0.6% after the central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, less than the 50 points that some economists had predicted. Singapore authorities, meanwhile, expect gross domestic product to expand 3% to 5% next year, a slower pace than this year as the country rebounds from the pandemic. Indian stocks fell ahead of the November monthly expiry on Thursday, led by technology companies. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.6% to 58,340.99 in Mumbai to close at its lowest level in two months. The gauge gained 0.3% on Tuesday, snapping four sessions of selloff.   The NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.5% on Wednesday, reversing intraday gains of as much as 0.6%. Software exporter Infosys Ltd. was the biggest drag on both gauges and slipped more than 2%. Of the 30 shares in the Sensex, 21 dropped and nine rose.  Investors roll over positions ahead of the expiry of derivatives contracts on the last Thursday of every month. Fourteen of 19 sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. fell, led by a measure of IT companies. “The scheduled monthly expiry would keep the traders busy on Thursday,” Ajit Mishra, vice president research at Religare Broking Ltd. wrote in a note. “We suggest continuing with negative bias on the index while keeping a check on leveraged positions.” In Fx, the most notable movers was the drop in the kiwi: New Zealand’s currency ironically slid to the weakest in nearly two months and the nation’s bond rallied as the central bank’s 25 basis-point rate hike disappointed traders betting on a bigger increase. The central bank projected 2% benchmark borrowing costs by the end of 2022. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced a fourth consecutive day as the greenback gained versus all Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen, which reversed its losses after falling to the lowest since March 2017. The euro underperformed, nearing the $1.12 handle amid broad dollar strength even before data showing German business confidence took another hit in November and amid renewed fears that Germany may be considering a full lockdown and mandatory vaccines. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said policy makers considered a 50bps move before deciding on 25bps, and he sees the OCR climbing to around 2.5% by end-2023.  Elsewhere, Turkey’s lira stabilized after Tuesday’s plunge. MSCI’s gauge of emerging-market stocks edged lower for a sixth session.   In rates, Treasuries were richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, paced by European bonds ahead of a raft of U.S. data preceding Thursday’s market close. 10-year Treasury yields were richer by ~1bp on the day at around 1.655%, slightly trailing bunds; most curve spreads are within a basis point of Tuesday’s close with comparable shifts across tenors. During Asia session, Treasuries were supported by wider gains across Kiwi bonds after RBNZ hiked policy rates, but still erred on the dovish side. Bunds remain supported during European morning as haven demand stems from prospect of a nationwide German lockdown. Italian bonds snapped a two-day decline. In commodities, oil futures in New York swung between gains and losses following an announcement by the U.S. and other nations of a coordinated release of strategic reserves. Focus now turns to OPEC+ on how the group will respond to the moves. The alliance has already said that such releases were unjustified by market conditions and it may reconsider plans to add more supply at a meeting next week. Base metals are well bid with LME nickel adding over 2% to outperform peers. LME copper rises over 1% to best levels for the week. Crude futures fade a modest push higher fading after a brief push through Tuesday’s best levels. WTI trades flat, having briefly printed above $79; Brent prints highs of $83 before fading. Spot gold holds a narrow range close to $1,790/oz To the day ahead now, and there’s a significant amount of US data ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday. That includes the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q3 GDP, October’s personal income and personal spending, new home sales, and the preliminary October readings for durable goods orders and core capital goods orders. Over in Germany, there’s also the Ifo’s business climate indicator for November. Finally on the central bank side, there’s the release of the FOMC’s November meeting minutes, and speakers include the ECB’s Panetta and Schnabel, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,683.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 480.66 MXAP down 0.5% to 196.76 MXAPJ down 0.1% to 643.18 Nikkei down 1.6% to 29,302.66 Topix down 1.2% to 2,019.12 Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 24,685.50 Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,592.70 Sensex down 0.3% to 58,499.84 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,399.44 Kospi down 0.1% to 2,994.29 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $82.63/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,791.37 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.57 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.22% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1231 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Olaf Scholz is set to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor after forging an unprecedented alliance that aims to revamp Europe’s largest economy by tackling climate change and promoting digital technologies The European Commission is set to announce the recommendations for the entire EU as soon as Thursday, Politico’s Playbook newsletter reported, citing three unidentified officials and diplomats Italy’s government is debating tough new measures to stem an increase in coronavirus cases, which could include restrictions on unvaccinated people and be approved as soon as Wednesday The ECB’s pandemic purchasing program may enter a “waiting room” rather than be abolished completely once net purchases are set to end in March, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said at briefing in Vienna The U.K.’s biggest business lobby group has urged Prime Minister Boris Johnson to back down in its dispute with the European Union over Northern Ireland and not follow through with threats to suspend parts of the Brexit divorce deal Polish central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said further weakening of the zloty wouldn’t be consistent with the country’s economic fundamentals, helping lift the embattled currency from 12-year lows The supply crunch that’s helped drive inflation to multi- decade highs shows some signs of easing in the U.S. -- but it’s still getting worse in Europe. That’s the takeaway from the latest readings on Bloomberg Economics’ new set of supply indicators The unraveling of the Turkish lira threatens to erode Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s grasp on the economy and is already emboldening his political opponents. Small protests erupted in Istanbul and Ankara overnight, calling for an end to economic mismanagement that’s unleashed rapid inflation and triggered the currency’s longest losing streak in two decades A more detailed breakdown of global news courtesy of newsquawk Asia-Pac equity indices were mixed following the choppy performance of their US counterparts where energy rallied despite the SPR announcement and tech lagged as yields continued to gain, with the latest RBNZ rate hike, as well as looming FOMC Minutes and US data releases adding to the tentative mood. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was rangebound with the index subdued by losses in tech and gold miners which suffered from the rising yield environment, but with downside cushioned by strength in the largest weighted financials sector and with outperformance in energy after oil prices rallied in the aftermath of the widely anticipated SPR announcement. The strength in oil was attributed to several reasons including a “sell the rumour/buy the news” play and expectations of a response from OPEC+, while an administration official kept the prospect of an oil export ban on the table which is seen as bullish as it would remove US supply from the global market. Nikkei 225 (-1.6%) was the laggard on return from holiday amid flows into the local currency and with reports also suggesting the BoJ is considering tweaking its pandemic relief program. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) swung between gains and losses with early indecision due to the broad tech weakness tech which was not helped by reports that Chinese cyberspace regulators and police summoned Alibaba (9988 HK) and Baidu’s (9888 HK) cloud unit for telecoms network fraud, although the losses for Chinese bourses were eventually reversed amid gains in the energy heavyweights and after a mild PBoC liquidity injection. Finally, 10yr JGBs opened lower on spillover selling from global peers but gradually pared some of the losses after rebounding from support at 151.50 and with the BoJ in the market for nearly JPY 1.5tln of JGBs with up to 10yr maturities. Top Asian News Shinsei Drops Poison Pill Against SBI in Japan Takeover Saga Morgan Stanley to Repay Hong Kong Staff $5,100 for Quarantine KKR, Equinix Among Suitors for $11 Billion Global Switch Japan to Issue $192 Billion in Debt for Stimulus: Nikkei European equities attempted to claw back some of the week’s losses (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%; Stoxx 600 -0.2%) at the open with Monday and Tuesday’s session dominated by ongoing COVID angst in the region. Lockdown measures were enough to see investors shrug off yesterday’s better-than-expected PMI metrics for the Eurozone with today’s slightly softer than hoped for German Ifo report having little sway on price action. Despite the upside seen at the open, optimism has faded throughout the session as speculation mounts over whether the announcement of the German coalition deal (set to be unveiled at 14:00GMT) could prompt further lockdown measures for the nation. Furthermore, reports note that the Italian government is debating potential restrictions on the unvaccinated; measures could be approved as soon as today. On a more positive footing French Finance Minister Le Maire says at the moment he does not see any need for further COVID-related restrictions in France. However, it remains to be seen how long this viewpoint can be sustained. Stateside, futures are a touch softer with losses across the majors of a relatively equal magnitude (ES -0.1%) in the final full session of the week ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday. Given the shortened week, today sees a deluge of data from the US with releases including key personal income, spending and PCE data for October, a second look at Q3 GDP, final Michigan consumer sentiment data, as well as weekly jobless claims and energy inventory data. All of which is followed by the FOMC minutes from the November meeting. In a recent note, BNP Paribas stated it is of the view that equities will go on to provide the highest returns across asset classes in 2022 with the French bank targeting 5100 (currently 4690) for the S&P 500 by the end of next year. From a European perspective, BNP expects the Euro Stoxx 50 to close 2022 out at 4500 (currently 4300) with the market “too pessimistic” on margins; albeit the Bank concedes that the resurgence of COVID presents a risk to its view. Sectors in Europe are mostly constructive with Oil & Gas and Basic Resources underpinned by gains in the underlying commodities with the former continuing to garner support post-yesterday’s SPR announcement. The Travel & Leisure sector lags peers with the Travel element of the group hampered by reports that the European Commission is preparing new COVID travel recommendations for the whole of the EU. For Leisure names, Entain (-5.0%) and Flutter Entertainment (-3.0%) have been hit by news that over 160 UK MPs and peers are said to be demanding that online gambling limits are lowered. Finally, Telecom Italia (+9.7%) is the best performer in the Stoxx 600 after source reports suggesting that KKR is considering a higher bid for the Co. in an attempt to win over support from Vivendi.   Top European News Scholz Seals Coalition Deal to Become Next German Chancellor Italy Readies Curbs on the Unvaccinated as Covid Cases Rise Booking Agrees to Buy CVC’s Etraveli for About EU1.63b Orange CEO Convicted in $453 Million Arbitration Fraud Case In FX, the Dollar index has gained traction and continued its gains above 96.500+ status in early European hours before eclipsing resistance at 96.700 to a fresh YTD peak at 96.758, with US players also preparing to wind down for the long weekend. Before that, the Buck will be facing a plethora of Tier 1 US data, including Prelim GDP (Q3), weekly Jobless Claims, and monthly PCE in the run-up to the FOMC Minutes – which will be eyed for clues on what could warrant an adjustment of the pace of tapering (Full preview available in the Newsquawk Research Suite). On the downside, immediate support will likely be at yesterday’s 96.308 low before this week’s current 96.035 trough. In terms of early month-end FX flows (on account of the holiday-shortened week), Morgan Stanley’s model points towards USD weakness against most G10 peers. EUR, GBP - The single currency dipped a 16-month low just before the release of the German Ifo survey, which unsurprisingly voiced cautiousness against the backdrop of COVID and supply chain issues – with Ifo forecasting a growth stagnation this current quarter, whilst ING believe that today’s Ifo signals that “The risk of stagnation or even recession in the German economy at the turn of the year has clearly increased.” The currency came under further pressure in what coincided with reports that Germany is mulling a full COVID lockdown and mandatory vaccinations, although the piece failed to cite any sources nor officials and seemed to be more an extrapolation of recent remarks from the German Health Minister. EUR/USD fell through pivotal support at 1.1210 to a current low at 1.1206 ahead of 1.1200. Traders should also be cognizant of several chunky OpEx clips including EUR 1.3bln between 1.1195-1.1200. Ahead, the SPD, Greens and FDP set to unveil their coalition deal at 14:00GMT. ECB speak today include from the likes Schnabel after Panetta and Holzmann failed to spur action across EU assets. Elsewhere, the GBP/USD is flat intraday and saw little reaction to BoE Governor Bailey yesterday, suggesting he does not think the MPC will go back to a hard form of guidance and stated that it is not off the table that they give no guidance at all on rates. Bailey also stated that decisions are made meeting by meeting and that they have a very tight labour market. From a political standpoint, European Commission VP Sefcovic said EU-UK talks on Northern Ireland trade rules will probably drag into 2022. Cable remains within a 1.3353-89 range whilst EUR/GBP trades on either side of 0.8400. Looking ahead, BoE’s Tenreyro speaking at the Oxford Economics Society – with early-Nov commentary from the MPC member suggesting that monetary policy will have to bite if there are signs of second-round inflation effects, but policy cannot fix energy price spikes. NZD, AUD - The Kiwi stands as the G10 laggard following a dovish 25bps hike by the RBNZ, with the board citing optionality. Desks suggest that FX was clearly gearing for a hawkish surprise from the central bank, with markets pricing some 35% of a 50bps hike heading into the meeting given the inflation survey earlier this month. Money markets were also disappointed, with participants flagging that the 2yr swap fell over 15bps despite the RBNZ upping its 2023 OCR forecast to 2.3% (prev. 1.7%). NZD/USD fell further beneath the 0.7000 mark to a current 0.6957 low. AUD meanwhile sees its losses cushioned from another day of firm gains in iron ore, whilst cross-currency flows help the AUD/NZD test 1.0450 to the upside. Nonetheless, the cautious market mood keeps AUD/USD around the flat mark after the pair found support at 0.7200. JPY - The traditional haven outperforms as risk aversion creeps into the market. USD/JPY pivots the 115.00 market after hitting an overnight high of 115.23. Some desks suggest that offers are seen from 115.30 on Wednesday, with more around the 115.50 area, according to IFR citing Tokyo sources. In terms of notable OpEx, USD/JPY sees USD 1.7bln between 115.00-10. In commodities, WTI and Brent Jan futures consolidate following yesterday’s gains post-SPR announcement. The release disappointed the oil bears given the widely telegraphed nature of the announcement coupled with relatively small contributions from members. Desks have also highlighted that the reserves will need to be replenished at some time in the future, and thus, analysts have passed the effects from the SPR release as temporary; although, cautioning that if the desired impact is not achieved, then further action can be taken – with a temporary export ban still on the table. Meanwhile, on the demand side, futures dipped after CNBC reported that Germany could head into a full lockdown, but the piece did not make a mention of officials nor sources but seemed to be more an extrapolation of recent comments from the Germany Health Minister, with an announcement on this matter potentially to come today. Further, tomorrow could see revised travel guidance for the whole of the EU, according to Politico sources, although "The biggest overall change will be a move away from a country-based approach and to a person-based one, which takes into account a citizen’s individual COVID status." Despite this month’s European COVID developments, JPMorgan sees global oil demand growing by another 3.5mln BPD next year to reach 99.8mln BPD (280k BPD above 2019 level); 2023 demand is expected to average around 101.5mln BPD (1.9mln BPD above pre-COVID levels) and suggested that global oil demand is on track to exceed 2019 levels by March 2022 and strengthen further. As a reminder, next week also sees the OPEC+ meeting whereby the group is expected to continue with plans of monthly output increases of 400k BPD, with a risk of a more dovish decision and/or commentary. WTI Jan trades around USD 78.50/bbl (vs high 79.23/bbl) and Brent Jan around USD 82.25/bbl (vs high 83.00/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold is interestingly unfazed by the rampant Dollar as prices remain caged within a cluster of DMAs (100 around 1,793, 200 around 1,791 and 50 around 1,788). Copper prices are again on the grind higher with LME around USD 9,800/t at the time of writing – with participants citing underlying demand, particularly from China. US Event Calendar 8:30am: 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.2%, prior 2.0% 8:30am: 3Q GDP Price Index, est. 5.7%, prior 5.7% 8:30am: 3Q PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.5%, prior 4.5% 8:30am: 3Q Personal Consumption, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6% 8:30am: Oct. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3% 8:30am: Oct. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%; - Less Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5% 8:30am: Oct. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 1.4% 8:30am: Oct. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.2%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.4% 8:30am: Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. - $95b, prior -$96.3b 8:30am: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 260,000, prior 268,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.03m, prior 2.08m 9:45am: Nov. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 50.7 10am: Oct. Personal Income, est. 0.2%, prior -1.0%; 10am: Oct. Personal Spending, est. 1.0%, prior 0.6% 10am: Oct. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.3% 10am: Oct. New Home Sales, est. 800,000, prior 800,000 10am: Oct. New Home Sales MoM, est. 0%, prior 14.0% 10am: Oct. PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.3% 10am: Oct. PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2% 10am: Oct. PCE Deflator YoY, est. 5.1%, prior 4.4% 10am: Oct. PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 3.6% 10am: Nov. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 67.0, prior 66.8 10am: Nov. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.9% 10am: Nov. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 4.9% 10am: Nov. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, prior 73.2 10am: Nov. U. of Mich. Expectations, prior 62.8 2pm: Nov. FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We’ve had a number of requests to bring back our Covid tables in the EMR. At the moment I’m resisting as they take a considerable amount of time. While we work out an efficient form of articulating the current wave on a daily basis, in today’s EMR we show graphs of the daily rolling 7-day cases and fatalities per million in the population for the G7. We’ve also included Austria, given how topical that is, and also The Netherlands, given mounting problems there. These act as a useful reference point for some of the more stressed countries. The cases chart should be in the text below and the fatalities one visible when you click “view report”. Germany is probably the main one to watch in the G7 at the moment and overnight reported 66,884 new cases (a record) compared with 45,362 the day before. A reminder that yesterday we published our 2022 credit strategy outlook. See here for the full report. Craig has also put out a more detailed HY 2022 strategy document here and Karthik a more detailed IG equivalent here. Basically we think spreads will widen as much as 30-40bps in IG and 120-160bps in HY due to a response to a more dramatic appreciation of the Fed being well behind the curve. This sort of move is consistent with typical mid-cycle ranges through history. We do expect this to mostly retrace in H2 as markets recover from the shock and growth remains decent and liquidity still high. We also published the results of our ESG issuer and investor survey where around 530 responded. Please see the results here. As we hit Thanksgiving Eve and a US data dump of a day given the holiday tomorrow, the big story over the last 2-3 business days has been real rates in the US. As recently as Friday, after the Austria lockdown news, 10yr real rates hit -1.2%. Yesterday they traded above -0.95% before closing at -0.97%, +4.0bps higher than the previous close. Our view in the 2022 credit strategy document is that credit is more tied to real rates than nominal rates and if the market attacks the Fed as we expect, then they should go up. However, note that I’ve also said I suspect they’ll stay negative for the rest of my career so while higher real yields are likely, I suspect that this is a trade rather than a structural long-term journey given likely long-term financial repression. Anyway, rising real yields, a fresh covid wave and belief over a less dovish Fed post the Powell reappointment saw a tough day for equities, especially in Europe, before the US managed to eke out a gain into the close. The S&P 500 (+0.17%) was up for the first time in 3 days, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-1.28%) posted its worst daily performance in nearly 2 months. On a sector level, it was the same story in the US, where energy (+3.04%) shares benefitted from climbing oil prices and financials (+1.55%) gained on steeper and higher yields. Larger tech firms retreated on the higher discount rates, with the Nasdaq declining -0.50%. Meanwhile the VIX index of volatility was back above the 20-mark for the first time in over a month, coinciding with a broader tightening of financial conditions. However, we dipped back below 20 into the stronger close. Honing in on bonds now and there was a major selloff yesterday that hit a number of European countries in particular. By the close of trade, yields on 10yr bunds were up +8.1bps, which is their single-biggest daily increase in over a year, actually since the day we found out that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had proven successful in trials and was set to be rolled out. The move came about entirely due to higher real rates, with Germany 10yr inflation breakevens actually down -2.0bps on the day. Similar moves were seen elsewhere on the continent, with yields on 10yr OATs (+8.6bps) and BTPs (+10.5bps) seeing sharp rises of their own, which occurred in part on the back of stronger than expected flash PMI data raising the prospect of a quicker drawdown in monetary stimulus, not least with inflation still running some way ahead of the ECB’s target. For US Treasuries, yields were a touch more subdued, and the yield curve twist steepened. 2yr yields declined -1.8bp whilst every other maturity increased, and all tenors out to 7 years are at post-pandemic highs. The 5yr nominal yield increased +2.2bps to 1.34%. The 10yr was up +4.1bps to 1.67% due, as we discussed above, to real yields. 10yr breakevens were flat (+0.2bp) at 2.63%. The 10 year is 7.5bps off of 2021 closing highs and in the 430 plus business days since the pandemic started there have only been 14 days with a higher close than last nights. Elsewhere yesterday, we had an important piece of news on the energy front, as the US announced that it would be releasing 50m barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with the move occurring alongside similar decisions in China, India, Japan, South Korea and the UK. 32m of those 50m will be an exchange, whereby oil is released over the next few months that is then returned over the coming years, while another 18m are coming from an acceleration of an oil sale that Congress had already authorised. Oil prices rose following the release however, with Brent crude (+3.27%) and WTI (+2.28%) both seeing decent advances, in part because the contribution from other nations was smaller than many had anticipated, but also because the potential release from the SPR had been widely reported in advance, thus sending prices lower from their peak around a month ago. Even with the news, there’s no sign that inflationary pressures will be going away just yet, since much of what happens next will depend on the reaction of the OPEC+ group. If they move to cancel plans to increase production, then that could put upward pressure on prices again and help counter the impact of the move from the various energy consumers. And as we’ve been discussing, inflationary pressures have been widening for some time now, stretching beyond specific categories like energy and used cars to an array of other areas. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mostly in the red with the CSI (-0.03%), Hang Seng (-0.06%), Shanghai Composite (-0.10%), KOSPI (-0.48%) and the Nikkei (-1.35%) all lower. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised interest rates for the second consecutive month and lifted the official cash rate 25bps to 0.75%. There was some who expected 50bps so bonds are rallying with 2yr and 10yrs -5.5bps and -7.5bps lower, respectively. The central bank were pretty hawkish in their comments though. US Treasuries are 2-4bps lower across the curve overnight as well. Staying on New Zealand, the country eased its travel restrictions by allowing fully vaccinated travellers (and other eligible travellers) from Australia without any isolation from Jan 17 and those from the rest of the world from February 14. Elsewhere, South Korea reported its highest ever daily new cases of 4,115 with 586 critical cases with the PM announcing the situation is "more serious than expected". Futures are indicating a slightly weaker start in the US and Europe with the S&P 500 (-0.24%) and DAX (-0.09%) lower. Over in Europe, there’s no sign of the pandemic letting up just yet, with French health minister Veran saying in parliament that “we are sadly well and truly in a fifth wave of the epidemic” as France announced 30,454 new cases yesterday. Austria has been the main country in the headlines recently as it moved into a nationwide lockdown, but the reality is that the trend lines have been moving higher across the continent, raising the prospect of fresh restrictions. In terms of yesterday’s developments, the Netherlands announced that social distancing would be reintroduced on a mandatory basis, and that people should stay 1.5m apart, and Poland saw the biggest daily increase in hospitalisations since April. Elsewhere, Slovakia’s PM said that he was considering following the steps adopted in Austria, and the outgoing Czech PM said that mandatory vaccines for the over-60s were being considered. In spite of the growing Covid wave across Europe, the flash PMIs released yesterday actually proved better than the consensus was expecting, and even saw something of an uptick from the October readings. The Euro Area composite PMI ended a run of 3 successive declines as it rose to 55.8 (vs. 53.0 expected), with both manufacturing (58.6) and services (56.6) rising relative to a month ago. And both the German (52.8) and the French (56.3) composite PMIs were also better than expected. On the other hand, the US had somewhat underwhelming readings, with the flash services PMI down to 57.0 (vs. 59.0 expected), as the composite PMI fell to 56.5. To the day ahead now, and there’s a significant amount of US data ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday. That includes the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q3 GDP, October’s personal income and personal spending, new home sales, and the preliminary October readings for durable goods orders and core capital goods orders. Over in Germany, there’s also the Ifo’s business climate indicator for November. Finally on the central bank side, there’s the release of the FOMC’s November meeting minutes, and speakers include the ECB’s Panetta and Schnabel, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Tyler Durden Wed, 11/24/2021 - 08:07.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 24th, 2021

Alimentation Couche-Tard Announces its Results for its Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2022

Net earnings were $694.8 million, or $0.65 per diluted share for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 compared with $757.0 million, or $0.68 per diluted share for the second quarter of fiscal 2021. Adjusted net earnings1 were approximately $693.0 million compared with $735.0 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2021. Adjusted diluted net earnings per share1 were $0.65, representing a decrease of 1.5% from $0.66 for the corresponding quarter of last year. Total merchandise and service revenues of $4.0 billion, an increase of 5.8%. Same-store merchandise revenues increased 1.4% in the United States and 3.9% in Europe and other regions, and decreased 2.1% in Canada. On a 2-year basis, same-store merchandise revenues increased at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% in the United States, 6.3% in Europe, and 4.5% in Canada. Merchandise and service gross margin increased 0.2% in the United States to 33.8%, and 0.4% in Canada to 32.3% and decreased 1.8% in Europe and other regions to 38.4%, which was impacted by the integration of Circle K Hong Kong. Same-store road transportation fuel volume increased 3.3% in the United States and 2.8% in Canada, and decreased 0.3% in Europe and other regions. On a 2-year basis, same-store road transportation fuel volume decreased at a compound annual rate of 6.5% in the United States, 2.0% in Europe, and 4.9% in Canada, still impacted by work from home trends. Road transportation fuel gross margin of 36.39¢ per gallon in the United States, an increase of 0.18¢ per gallon, and CA 11.03¢ per liter in Canada, an increase of CA 1.02¢ per liter. In Europe and other regions, it decreased by US 0.53¢ per liter to US 10.57¢ per liter. Fuel margins remained healthy throughout our network, from a favorable competitive landscape and a strong sourcing efficiency. As the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on our prior year financial results, looking at gross profit1 on a 2-year basis provides additional insight given the volatility in the various key measures of our business. Excluding the disposal of CAPL and the acquisition of Circle K Hong Kong, merchandise and service, as well as road transportation fuel gross profit1, are higher by 9.8% and 17.9%, respectively, compared with the pre-pandemic second quarter of fiscal 2020. On a 2-year basis, excluding the costs of employee retention measures implemented, which totaled approximately $24.0 million, normalized expenses increased at a compound annual growth rate of only 2.2%. 25.7% increase of the quarterly dividend, from CA 8.75¢ to CA 11.0¢. Under its current share repurchase program, the Corporation repurchased shares for an amount of $238.5 million during the quarter, and an amount of $50.0 million subsequent to the end of the quarter, reaching a total of $587.7 million under this program. LAVAL, QC, Nov. 23, 2021 /PRNewswire/ - For its second quarter ended October 10, 2021, Alimentation Couche- Tard Inc. ("Couche-Tard" or the "Corporation") (TSX:ATD) (TSX:ATD) announces net earnings of $694.8 million, representing $0.65 per share on a diluted basis. The results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 were affected by a pre-tax net foreign exchange gain of $4.9 million, as well as pre-tax acquisition costs of $1.8 million. The results for the comparable quarter of fiscal 2021 were affected by a pre-tax gain on disposal of $40.9 million related to the sale of a property located in Toronto, Canada, a pre-tax net foreign exchange loss of $8.9 million, as well as pre-tax acquisition costs of $1.2 million. Excluding these items, the adjusted net earnings1 were approximately $693.0 million, or $0.65 per share on a diluted basis for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, compared with $735.0 million, or $0.66 per share on a diluted basis for the second quarter of fiscal 2021, a decrease of 1.5% in the adjusted diluted net earnings per share1, explained by higher operating expenses, partly offset by organic growth in both convenience and road transportation fuel activities as well as by the favorable impact of our share repurchase program. All financial information presented is in US dollars unless stated otherwise. "I am pleased to report that across our global network, we had solid results during the second quarter in both convenience and fuel. Same-store sales were particularly notable in our U.S. and European markets as we continue to see growing momentum with our food program. Fuel volumes showed an upward trend in Europe, while other geographies remained impacted by COVID-19 traffic patterns. Across the board, we continue to achieve healthy fuel margins. I am particularly proud of the work we did this quarter to improve the customer experience and drive traffic to our stores from enhancing Sip & Save, our beverage subscription offer, to introducing frictionless checkout in our Arizona stores and pioneering a global partnership bringing our stores to life in a leading augmented reality mobile game," said Brian Hannasch, President and Chief Executive Officer of Alimentation Couche-Tard. _____________________________ 1 Please refer to the section "Non-IFRS Measures" for additional information on performance measures not defined by IFRS. "Like our peers across the retail and convenience landscape in North America, this quarter we continued to face unprecedented labor and supply chain challenges. No doubt, this is the most difficult market in recent history, and we are working hard to mitigate the situation. We have instituted hiring and retention initiatives including bonuses and other offers and increased recruitment capacity and pipeline visibility. We have also focused more intensely on training and engagement to be recognized as an employer of choice. After meeting our summer goal of hiring over 20,000 store team members, we are starting to see some stabilization. We are also working with our partners and finding new solutions to critical supply chain issues. As we faced these obstacles head-on, I am proud that we delivered a solid quarter and kept on track with our strategic goals," concluded Brian Hannasch. Claude Tessier, Chief Financial Officer, added: "We delivered another solid quarter despite the unparalleled staffing hurdles in North America combined with an overall challenging inflationary environment. This has put pressure on expenses as we work to alleviate the situation. As we start to see improvements in the various economies in which we operate, we will continue with our customary cost discipline and advance our network-wide cost optimization projects. I am especially proud of our teams' execution this quarter as we furthered our strategic plans and our strong financial position, highlighted by our leverage ratio of 1.23, resulting in the announcement today of a dividend increase of 25.7% to CA 11.0¢ per share." Significant Items of the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 As the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on our prior year financial results, looking at gross profit1 on a 2-year basis provides additional insight given the volatility in the various key measures of our business. Excluding the disposal of CAPL and the acquisition of Circle K Hong Kong, merchandise and service, as well as road transportation fuel gross profit1, are higher by 9.8% and 17.9%, respectively, compared with the pre-pandemic second quarter of fiscal 2020. On April 21, 2021, the Toronto Stock Exchange approved the implementation of a share repurchase program, which took effect on April 26, 2021. The program allows us to repurchase up to 4.0% of the public float of our Class B subordinate voting shares. During the second quarter and first half-year of fiscal 2022, we repurchased 6,351,895 and 14,822,895 Class B subordinate voting shares, respectively. These repurchases were settled for amounts of $238.5 million and $537.7 million, respectively. During the first half-year of fiscal 2022, 6,351,895 Class B subordinate voting shares were repurchased, for an amount of $238.5 million, from a related party. In addition, subsequent to the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2022, we repurchased 1,294,700 Class B subordinate voting shares for an amount of $50.0 million. Changes in our Network during the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 We acquired 36 company-operated stores, including the acquisition of 35 stores operating under the Porter's brand and located in the United States. We settled these transactions using our available cash and existing credit facilities. On July 30, 2021, we entered into a binding agreement in connection with the acquisition of Cape D'Or Holdings Limited, Barrington Terminals Limited and other related holding entities, which operate an independent convenience store and fuel network in Atlantic Canada under the Esso, Go! Store and Wilsons Gas Stops brands ("Wilsons"). The Wilsons network comprises 79 company-operated convenience retail and fuel locations, 147 dealer locations, and a fuel terminal in Halifax, Canada. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of calendar year 2022 and is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including those under the Competition Act (Canada). On September 9, 2021, we entered into a binding agreement to acquire 10 company-operated stores, operating under the Londis brand and located in Ireland. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of fiscal 2022. On March 22, 2021, we announced our intention to sell certain sites across 28 states in the United States and 6 provinces in Canada. The decision to dispose of these sites was based on the outcome of a strategic review of our network. As at October 10, 2021, 261 sites in the United States and 36 sites in Canada met the criteria for classification as held for sale, including 210 sites already subject to multiple sales agreements with various buyers. We completed the construction of 7 stores and the relocation or reconstruction of 3 stores, reaching a total of 40 stores since the beginning of fiscal 2022. As of October 10, 2021, another 77 stores were under construction and should open in the upcoming quarters. _________________________________ 1 Please refer to the section "Non-IFRS Measures" for additional information on performance measures not defined by IFRS. Summary of changes in our store network The following table presents certain information regarding changes in our store network over the 12–week period ended October 10, 2021: 12–week period ended October 10, 2021 Type of site Company-  operated CODO DODO Franchised and other affiliated Total Number of sites, beginning of period 9,906 397 689 1,263 12,255 Acquisitions 36 — — — 36 Openings / constructions / additions 7 3 9 11 30 Closures / disposals / withdrawals (33) (1) (5) (12) (51) Store conversion 9 (7) (2) — — Number of sites, end of period 9,925 392 691 1,262 12,270 Circle K branded sites under licensing agreements 1,917 Total network 14,187 Number of automated fuel stations included in the period-end figures 979 — 9 — 988 Exchange Rate Data We use the US dollar as our reporting currency, which provides more relevant information given the predominance of our operations in the United States. The following table sets forth information about exchange rates based upon closing rates expressed as US dollars per comparative currency unit: 12–week periods ended  24–week periods ended October 10, 2021 October 11, 2020 October 10, 2021 October 11, 2020 Average for the period Canadian dollar 0.7923 0.7541 0.8045 0.7416 Norwegian krone 0.1142 0.1101 0.1165 0.1064 Swedish krone 0.1154 0.1136 0.1171 0.1097 Danish krone 0.1581 0.1582 0.1600 0.1538 Zloty 0.2572 0.2653 0.2617 0.2568 Euro 1.1758 1.1777 1.1901 1.1453 Ruble 0.0137 0.0134 0.0136 0.0137 Hong Kong dollar 0.1285 — 0.1287 — Summary Analysis of Consolidated Results for the Second Quarter and First Half-year of Fiscal 2022 The following table highlights certain information regarding our operations for the 12 and 24–week periods ended October 10, 2021 and October 11, 2020. Europe and other regions include the results from our operations in Asia. 12-week periods ended 24-week periods ended (in millions of US dollars, unless otherwise stated) October 10,2021 October 11,2020 Variation% October 10,2021 October 11,2020 Variation% Statement of Operations Data: Merchandise and service revenues(1): United States 2,754.0 2,736.4 0.6 5,583.4 5,587.8 (0.1) Europe and other regions 580.4 394.6 47.1 1,141.8 737.8 54.8 Canada 644.5 629.8 2.3 1,321.7 1,293.0 2.2 Total merchandise and service revenues 3,978.9 3,760.8 5.8 8,046.9 7,618.6 5.6 Road transportation fuel revenues: United States 6,654.8 4,438.3 49.9 13,118.5 8,344.3 57.2 Europe and other regions 2,154.9 1,496.2 44.0 3,948.5 2,678.6 47.4 Canada 1,267.7 875.7 44.8 2,405.6 1,552.7 54.9 Total road transportation fuel revenues 10,077.4 6,810.2 48.0 19,472.6 12,575.6 54.8 Other revenues(2): United States 11.4 9.5 20.0 22.2 17.0 30.6 Europe and other regions 147.6 69.5 112.4 247.6 144.7 71.1 Canada 4.4 5.4 (18.5) 9.3 9.3 — Total other revenues 163.4 84.4 93.6 279.1 171.0 63.2 Total revenues 14,219.7 10,655.4 33.5 27,798.6 20,365.2 36.5 Merchandise and service gross profit(1)(3)(4): United States 932.1 920.3 1.3 1,899.8 1,897.1 0.1 Europe and other regions 222.8 158.6 40.5 438.2 297.8 47.1 Canada 208.3 200.7 3.8 427.3 407.0 5.0 Total merchandise and service gross profit 1,363.2 1,279.6 6.5 2,765.3 2,601.9 6.3 Road transportation fuel gross profit(3)(4):.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaNov 23rd, 2021

Alimentation Couche-Tard Announces its Results for its Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2022

Net earnings were $694.8 million, or $0.65 per diluted share for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 compared with $757.0 million, or $0.68 per diluted share for the second quarter of fiscal 2021. Adjusted net earnings1 were approximately $693.0 million compared with $735.0 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2021. Adjusted diluted net earnings per share1 were $0.65, representing a decrease of 1.5% from $0.66 for the corresponding quarter of last year. Total merchandise and service revenues of $4.0 billion, an increase of 5.8%. Same-store merchandise revenues increased 1.4% in the United States and 3.9% in Europe and other regions, and decreased 2.1% in Canada. On a 2-year basis, same-store merchandise revenues increased at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% in the United States, 6.3% in Europe, and 4.5% in Canada. Merchandise and service gross margin increased 0.2% in the United States to 33.8%, and 0.4% in Canada to 32.3% and decreased 1.8% in Europe and other regions to 38.4%, which was impacted by the integration of Circle K Hong Kong. Same-store road transportation fuel volume increased 3.3% in the United States and 2.8% in Canada, and decreased 0.3% in Europe and other regions. On a 2-year basis, same-store road transportation fuel volume decreased at a compound annual rate of 6.5% in the United States, 2.0% in Europe, and 4.9% in Canada, still impacted by work from home trends. Road transportation fuel gross margin of 36.39¢ per gallon in the United States, an increase of 0.18¢ per gallon, and CA 11.03¢ per liter in Canada, an increase of CA 1.02¢ per liter. In Europe and other regions, it decreased by US 0.53¢ per liter to US 10.57¢ per liter. Fuel margins remained healthy throughout our network, from a favorable competitive landscape and a strong sourcing efficiency. As the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on our prior year financial results, looking at gross profit1 on a 2-year basis provides additional insight given the volatility in the various key measures of our business. Excluding the disposal of CAPL and the acquisition of Circle K Hong Kong, merchandise and service, as well as road transportation fuel gross profit1, are higher by 9.8% and 17.9%, respectively, compared with the pre-pandemic second quarter of fiscal 2020. On a 2-year basis, excluding the costs of employee retention measures implemented, which totaled approximately $24.0 million, normalized expenses increased at a compound annual growth rate of only 2.2%. 25.7% increase of the quarterly dividend, from CA 8.75¢ to CA 11.0¢. Under its current share repurchase program, the Corporation repurchased shares for an amount of $238.5 million during the quarter, and an amount of $50.0 million subsequent to the end of the quarter, reaching a total of $587.7 million under this program. LAVAL, QC, Nov. 23, 2021 /CNW/ - For its second quarter ended October 10, 2021, Alimentation Couche- Tard Inc. ("Couche-Tard" or the "Corporation") (TSX:ATD) (TSX:ATD) announces net earnings of $694.8 million, representing $0.65 per share on a diluted basis. The results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 were affected by a pre-tax net foreign exchange gain of $4.9 million, as well as pre-tax acquisition costs of $1.8 million. The results for the comparable quarter of fiscal 2021 were affected by a pre-tax gain on disposal of $40.9 million related to the sale of a property located in Toronto, Canada, a pre-tax net foreign exchange loss of $8.9 million, as well as pre-tax acquisition costs of $1.2 million. Excluding these items, the adjusted net earnings1 were approximately $693.0 million, or $0.65 per share on a diluted basis for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, compared with $735.0 million, or $0.66 per share on a diluted basis for the second quarter of fiscal 2021, a decrease of 1.5% in the adjusted diluted net earnings per share1, explained by higher operating expenses, partly offset by organic growth in both convenience and road transportation fuel activities as well as by the favorable impact of our share repurchase program. All financial information presented is in US dollars unless stated otherwise. "I am pleased to report that across our global network, we had solid results during the second quarter in both convenience and fuel. Same-store sales were particularly notable in our U.S. and European markets as we continue to see growing momentum with our food program. Fuel volumes showed an upward trend in Europe, while other geographies remained impacted by COVID-19 traffic patterns. Across the board, we continue to achieve healthy fuel margins. I am particularly proud of the work we did this quarter to improve the customer experience and drive traffic to our stores from enhancing Sip & Save, our beverage subscription offer, to introducing frictionless checkout in our Arizona stores and pioneering a global partnership bringing our stores to life in a leading augmented reality mobile game," said Brian Hannasch, President and Chief Executive Officer of Alimentation Couche-Tard. _____________________________ 1 Please refer to the section "Non-IFRS Measures" for additional information on performance measures not defined by IFRS. "Like our peers across the retail and convenience landscape in North America, this quarter we continued to face unprecedented labor and supply chain challenges. No doubt, this is the most difficult market in recent history, and we are working hard to mitigate the situation. We have instituted hiring and retention initiatives including bonuses and other offers and increased recruitment capacity and pipeline visibility. We have also focused more intensely on training and engagement to be recognized as an employer of choice. After meeting our summer goal of hiring over 20,000 store team members, we are starting to see some stabilization. We are also working with our partners and finding new solutions to critical supply chain issues. As we faced these obstacles head-on, I am proud that we delivered a solid quarter and kept on track with our strategic goals," concluded Brian Hannasch. Claude Tessier, Chief Financial Officer, added: "We delivered another solid quarter despite the unparalleled staffing hurdles in North America combined with an overall challenging inflationary environment. This has put pressure on expenses as we work to alleviate the situation. As we start to see improvements in the various economies in which we operate, we will continue with our customary cost discipline and advance our network-wide cost optimization projects. I am especially proud of our teams' execution this quarter as we furthered our strategic plans and our strong financial position, highlighted by our leverage ratio of 1.23, resulting in the announcement today of a dividend increase of 25.7% to CA 11.0¢ per share." Significant Items of the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 As the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on our prior year financial results, looking at gross profit1 on a 2-year basis provides additional insight given the volatility in the various key measures of our business. Excluding the disposal of CAPL and the acquisition of Circle K Hong Kong, merchandise and service, as well as road transportation fuel gross profit1, are higher by 9.8% and 17.9%, respectively, compared with the pre-pandemic second quarter of fiscal 2020. On April 21, 2021, the Toronto Stock Exchange approved the implementation of a share repurchase program, which took effect on April 26, 2021. The program allows us to repurchase up to 4.0% of the public float of our Class B subordinate voting shares. During the second quarter and first half-year of fiscal 2022, we repurchased 6,351,895 and 14,822,895 Class B subordinate voting shares, respectively. These repurchases were settled for amounts of $238.5 million and $537.7 million, respectively. During the first half-year of fiscal 2022, 6,351,895 Class B subordinate voting shares were repurchased, for an amount of $238.5 million, from a related party. In addition, subsequent to the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2022, we repurchased 1,294,700 Class B subordinate voting shares for an amount of $50.0 million. Changes in our Network during the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 We acquired 36 company-operated stores, including the acquisition of 35 stores operating under the Porter's brand and located in the United States. We settled these transactions using our available cash and existing credit facilities. On July 30, 2021, we entered into a binding agreement in connection with the acquisition of Cape D'Or Holdings Limited, Barrington Terminals Limited and other related holding entities, which operate an independent convenience store and fuel network in Atlantic Canada under the Esso, Go! Store and Wilsons Gas Stops brands ("Wilsons"). The Wilsons network comprises 79 company-operated convenience retail and fuel locations, 147 dealer locations, and a fuel terminal in Halifax, Canada. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of calendar year 2022 and is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including those under the Competition Act (Canada). On September 9, 2021, we entered into a binding agreement to acquire 10 company-operated stores, operating under the Londis brand and located in Ireland. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of fiscal 2022. On March 22, 2021, we announced our intention to sell certain sites across 28 states in the United States and 6 provinces in Canada. The decision to dispose of these sites was based on the outcome of a strategic review of our network. As at October 10, 2021, 261 sites in the United States and 36 sites in Canada met the criteria for classification as held for sale, including 210 sites already subject to multiple sales agreements with various buyers. We completed the construction of 7 stores and the relocation or reconstruction of 3 stores, reaching a total of 40 stores since the beginning of fiscal 2022. As of October 10, 2021, another 77 stores were under construction and should open in the upcoming quarters. _________________________________ 1 Please refer to the section "Non-IFRS Measures" for additional information on performance measures not defined by IFRS. Summary of changes in our store network The following table presents certain information regarding changes in our store network over the 12–week period ended October 10, 2021: 12–week period ended October 10, 2021 Type of site Company-  operated CODO DODO Franchised and other affiliated Total Number of sites, beginning of period 9,906 397 689 1,263 12,255 Acquisitions 36 — — — 36 Openings / constructions / additions 7 3 9 11 30 Closures / disposals / withdrawals (33) (1) (5) (12) (51) Store conversion 9 (7) (2) — — Number of sites, end of period 9,925 392 691 1,262 12,270 Circle K branded sites under licensing agreements 1,917 Total network 14,187 Number of automated fuel stations included in the period-end figures 979 — 9 — 988 Exchange Rate Data We use the US dollar as our reporting currency, which provides more relevant information given the predominance of our operations in the United States. The following table sets forth information about exchange rates based upon closing rates expressed as US dollars per comparative currency unit: 12–week periods ended  24–week periods ended October 10, 2021 October 11, 2020 October 10, 2021 October 11, 2020 Average for the period Canadian dollar 0.7923 0.7541 0.8045 0.7416 Norwegian krone 0.1142 0.1101 0.1165 0.1064 Swedish krone 0.1154 0.1136 0.1171 0.1097 Danish krone 0.1581 0.1582 0.1600 0.1538 Zloty 0.2572 0.2653 0.2617 0.2568 Euro 1.1758 1.1777 1.1901 1.1453 Ruble 0.0137 0.0134 0.0136 0.0137 Hong Kong dollar 0.1285 — 0.1287 — Summary Analysis of Consolidated Results for the Second Quarter and First Half-year of Fiscal 2022 The following table highlights certain information regarding our operations for the 12 and 24–week periods ended October 10, 2021 and October 11, 2020. Europe and other regions include the results from our operations in Asia. 12-week periods ended 24-week periods ended (in millions of US dollars, unless otherwise stated) October 10,2021 October 11,2020 Variation% October 10,2021 October 11,2020 Variation% Statement of Operations Data: Merchandise and service revenues(1): United States 2,754.0 2,736.4 0.6 5,583.4 5,587.8 (0.1) Europe and other regions 580.4 394.6 47.1 1,141.8 737.8 54.8 Canada 644.5 629.8 2.3 1,321.7 1,293.0 2.2 Total merchandise and service revenues 3,978.9 3,760.8 5.8 8,046.9 7,618.6 5.6 Road transportation fuel revenues: United States 6,654.8 4,438.3 49.9 13,118.5 8,344.3 57.2 Europe and other regions 2,154.9 1,496.2 44.0 3,948.5 2,678.6 47.4 Canada 1,267.7 875.7 44.8 2,405.6 1,552.7 54.9 Total road transportation fuel revenues 10,077.4 6,810.2 48.0 19,472.6 12,575.6 54.8 Other revenues(2): United States 11.4 9.5 20.0 22.2 17.0 30.6 Europe and other regions 147.6 69.5 112.4 247.6 144.7 71.1 Canada 4.4 5.4 (18.5) 9.3 9.3 — Total other revenues 163.4 84.4 93.6 279.1 171.0 63.2 Total revenues 14,219.7 10,655.4 33.5 27,798.6 20,365.2 36.5 Merchandise and service gross profit(1)(3)(4): United States 932.1 920.3 1.3 1,899.8 1,897.1 0.1 Europe and other regions 222.8 158.6 40.5 438.2 297.8 47.1 Canada 208.3 200.7 3.8 427.3 407.0 5.0 Total merchandise and service gross profit 1,363.2 1,279.6 6.5 2,765.3 2,601.9 6.3 Road transportation fuel gross profit(3)(4):.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaNov 23rd, 2021

Futures Under Water As Tech Selloff Spreads, Yields Spike, Lira Implodes

Futures Under Water As Tech Selloff Spreads, Yields Spike, Lira Implodes US equity futures continued their selloff for the second day as Treasury yields spiked to 1.66%, up almost 4bps on the day, and as the selloff in tech shares spread as traders trimmed bets for a dovish-for-longer Federal Reserve after the renomination of Jerome Powell as its chair. At 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 2.75 points or -0.05%, with Dow futures flat and Nasdaq futures extended their selloff but were off worst levels, down 41.25 points or 0.25%, after Monday’s last-hour furious rout in technology stocks. As repeatedly covered here in recent weeks, the Turkish currency crisis deepened with the lira weakening past 13 per USD, a drop of more than 10% in one day.  Oil rebounded - as expected - after a panicking Joe Biden, terrified about what soaring gas prices mean for Dems midterm changes, announced that the US, together with several other countries such as China, India and Japan, would tap up to 50 million barrels in strategic reserves, a move which was fully priced in and will now serve to bottom tick the price of oil. In premarket trading, Zoom lost 9% in premarket trading on slowing growth. For some unknown reason, investors have been reducing expectations for a deeper dovish stance by the Fed after Powell was selected for a second term (as if Powell - the man who started purchases of corporate bonds - is somehow hawkish). The chair himself sought to strike a balance in his policy approach saying the central bank would use tools at its disposal to support the economy as well as to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. “While investors no longer have to wonder about who will be leading the Federal Reserve for the next few years, the next big dilemma the central bank faces is how to normalize monetary policy without upsetting markets,” wrote Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management. Following Powell’s renomination, “the market has unwound hedges against a more ‘dovish’ personnel shift,” Chris Weston, head of research with Pepperstone Financial Pty Ltd., wrote in a note. Not helping was Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who said Monday that the Fed may need to speed up the removal of monetary stimulus and allow for an earlier-than-planned increase in interest rates European stocks dropped with market focusing on potential Covid lockdowns and policy tightening over solid PMI data. Euro Stoxx 50 shed as much as 1.7% with tech, financial services and industrial names the hardest hit. Better-than-forecast PMI numbers out of Europe’s major economies prompted money markets to resume bets that the ECB will hike the deposit rate 10 basis points as soon as December 2022, versus 2023 on Monday. As Goldman notes, the Euro area composite flash PMI increased by 1.6pt to 55.8 in November — strongly ahead of consensus expectations — in a first gain since the post-July moderation. The area-wide gain was broad-based across countries, and sectors. Supply-side issues continued to be widely reported, with input and output price pressures climbing to all-time highs. In the UK, the November flash composite PMI came in broadly as expected, and while input costs rose to a new all-time high, pass-through into output prices appears lower than usual. Forward-looking expectations remain comfortably above historical averages across Europe, although today's data are unlikely to fully reflect the covid containment measures taken in a number of European countries over recent days. Key numbers (the responses were collected between 10 and 19 November (except in the UK, where the survey response window spanned 12-19 November). Euro Area Composite PMI (Nov, Flash): 55.8, GS 53.6, consensus 53.0, last 54.2. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (Nov, Flash): 58.6, GS 57.7, consensus 57.4, last 58.3. Euro Area Services PMI (Nov, Flash): 56.6, GS 53.9, consensus 53.5, last 54.6. Germany Composite PMI (Nov, Flash): 52.8, GS 52.1, consensus 51.0, last 52.0. France Composite PMI (Nov, Flash): 56.3, GS 54.4, consensus 53.9, last 54.7. UK Composite PMI (Nov, Flash): 57.7, GS 57.7, consensus 57.5, last 57.8. And visually: Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell toward a three-week low as Jerome Powell’s renomination to head the Federal Reserve boosted U.S. yields, putting downward pressure on the region’s technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.5%, as the reappointment sent Treasury yields higher and buoyed the dollar amid concerns monetary stimulus will be withdrawn faster. Consumer discretionary and communication shares were the biggest drags on Asia’s benchmark, with Tencent and Alibaba slipping on worries over tighter regulations in China. “Powell’s renomination was generally expected by the market,” said Chetan Seth, an Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Nomura. The market’s reaction may be short-lived as traders turn their attention to the Fed’s meeting in December and Covid’s resurgence in Europe, he added. Asia shares have struggled to break higher as the jump in yields weighed on sentiment already damped by a lackluster earnings season and the risk of accelerating inflation. The region’s stock benchmark is down about 1% this year compared with a 16% advance in the MSCI AC World Index. Hong Kong and Taiwan were among the biggest decliners, while Australian and Indian shares bucked the downtrend, helped by miners and energy stocks. India’s benchmark stock index rose, snapping four sessions of declines, boosted by gains in Reliance Industries Ltd.   The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.3% to close at 58,664.33 in Mumbai, recovering after falling as much as 1.3% earlier in the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.5%. Of the 30 shares on the Sensex, 21 rose and 9 fell. All but one of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by a gauge of metal stocks.  Reliance Industries Ltd. gained 0.9%, after dropping the most in nearly 10 months on Monday following its decision to scrap a plan to sell a 20% stake in its oil-to-chemicals unit to Saudi Arabian Oil Co. Shares of One 97 Communications Ltd., the parent company for digital payments firm Paytm, climbed 9.9% after two days of relentless selling since its trading debut. In rates, Treasuries dropped, with the two-year rate jumping five basis points, helping to flatten the yield curve. Bunds and Treasuries bear steepened with German 10y yields ~5bps cheaper. Gilts bear flatten, cheapening 1.5bps across the short end. 10Y TSY yields rose as high as 1.67% before reversing some of the move. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier advancing to the highest level since September 2020 as markets moved to price in a full quarter-point rate hike by the June Fed meeting, with a good chance of two more by year-end; Treasury yields inched up across the curve apart from the front end. The Japanese yen briefly fell past 115 per dollar for the first time since 2017. The euro advanced after better-than-forecast PMI numbers out of Europe’s major economies prompted money markets to resume bets that the ECB will hike the deposit rate 10 basis points as soon as December 2022, versus 2023 on Monday. Sterling declined versus the dollar and the euro; traders are taking an increasingly negative view on the pound, betting that the decline that’s already left the currency near its lowest this year has further to run New Zealand’s dollar under-performed all G-10 peers as leveraged longs backing a 50 basis-point hike from the central bank were flushed out of the market; sales were mainly seen against the greenback and Aussie. The yuan approached its strongest level against trade partners’ currencies in a sign that traders see a low likelihood of aggressive official intervention. The Turkish lira (see above) crashed to a record low on Tuesday, soaring more than 10% and just shy of 14 vs the USD, a day after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended his pursuit of lower interest rates to boost economic growth and job creation. In commodities, crude futures rebounded sharply after Biden announced a coordinated, global SPR release which would see the US exchange up to 32mm barrels, or a negligible amount. Brent spiked back over $80 on the news after trading in the mid-$78s. Spot gold drops ~$8, pushing back below $1,800/oz. Base metals are well supported with LME nickel outperforming. Looking at the day ahead, the main data highlight will be the flash PMIs for November from around the world, and there’s also the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the BoE’s Haskel, as well as ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Makhlouf. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,667.75 Brent Futures down 0.9% to $78.95/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,796.86 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 96.39     Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The volatility term structures in the major currencies show that next month’s meetings by monetary policy authorities are what matters most. Data galore out of the U.S. by Wednesday’s New York cut off means demand for one-day structures remains intact, yet it’s not enough to bring about term structure inversion as one-week implieds stay below recent cycle highs Lael Brainard, picked to be vice chair of the Federal Reserve, is expected to be a critical defender of its commitment to maximum employment across demographic groups at a time when other U.S. central bankers are more worried by inflation ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said there’s an increasing threat of inflation taking hold, as she played down the danger that resurgent coronavirus infections might impede the euro zone’s recovery Regarding latest pandemic restrictions, “when it comes to the impact, I would say that while it will surely have a moderating impact on economic activity, the impact on inflation will actually be more ambiguous because it might also reinforce some of the concerns we have around supply bottlenecks,” ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot says in Bloomberg Television interview with Francine Lacqua European Union countries are pushing for an agreement on how long Covid-19 vaccinations protect people and how to manage booster shots as they try to counter the pandemic’s fourth wave and safeguard free travel Germany’s top health official reiterated a warning that the government can’t exclude any measures, including another lockdown, as it tries to check the latest wave of Covid-19 infections The State Council, China’s cabinet, released three documents in the past several days, outlining measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises weather the downturn: from encouraging local governments to roll out discounts for power usage to organizing internet companies to provide cloud and digital services to SMEs A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following a similar performance in the US where participants digested President Biden’s decision to nominate Fed Chair Powell for a second term and Fed’s Brainard for the Vice Chair role. This resulted in bear flattening for the US curve and underpinned the greenback, while the major indices were choppy but with late selling heading into the close in which the S&P 500 slipped beneath the 4,700 level and the Nasdaq underperformed as tech suffered the brunt of the higher yields. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was positive with sentiment encouraged after stronger PMI data and M&A developments including BHP’s signing of a binding agreement to merge its oil and gas portfolio with Woodside Petroleum to create a global top 10 independent energy company and the largest listed energy company in Australia, which spurred outperformance for the mining and energy related sectors. KOSPI (-0.5%) was lacklustre and retreated below the 3k level amid broad weakness in tech which was not helped by concerns that South Korea could take another aim at large tech through a platform bill and with the government said to be mulling strengthening social distancing measures. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) continued to diverge amid a neutral liquidity effort by the PBoC and with the Hong Kong benchmark conforming to the tech woes, while the mainland was kept afloat after the State Council pledged to strengthen assistance to smaller firms and with Global Times noting that China will likely adopt another RRR cut before year-end to cope with an economic slowdown. Finally, Japanese participants were absent from the market as they observed Labor Thanksgiving Day, while yields in Australia were higher as they tracked global counterparts and following a Treasury Indexed bond offering in the long-end. Top Asian News Tiger Global Leads $210 Million Round by India Proptech Unicorn China’s Slowdown Tests Central Bank Amid Debate Over Easing Kuaishou Defies China Crackdown as Revenue Climbs 33% Evergrande Shares Jump in Afternoon Trading as Group Units Rally Major bourses in Europe are lower across the board, but off worst levels (Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%; Stoxx 600 -1.3%) following on from the mixed APAC performance, but with pandemic restrictions casting a shower over the region. US equity futures are mostly lower but to a lesser extent than European peers, with the YM (+0.1%) the relative outperformer vs the ES (-0.1%), NQ (-0.3%) and RTY (-0.8%). Back to Europe, the morning saw the release of Flash PMIs which failed to spur much action across market given the somewhat stale nature against the backdrop of a worsening COVID situation in Europe. Losses in the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.1%) are more cushioned vs European counterparts, with heavyweight miners doing the heavy lifting, and as the basic resources sector outpaces and resides as the only sector in the green at the time of writing amid a surge in iron ore prices overnight. Sticking with sectors, there is no clear or overarching theme/bias. Tech resides at the foot of the pile, unaided by the intraday rise in yields. Travel and Leisure also reside towards the bottom of the bunch, but more a function of the “leisure” sub-sector as opposed to the “travel” component, with Evolution Gaming (-3.7%) and Flutter (-3.5%) on the back foot. In terms of individual movers, Thyssenkrupp (-7.0%) tumbles after the Co. announced a secondary offer by Cevian of 43mln shares. Meanwhile, Telecom Italia (-3%) is softer following yesterday’s run, whilst Vivendi (-0.5%) said the current KKR (KKR) offer does not reflect Telecom Italia's value and it has no intention of offloading its 24% stake. Top European News U.K. PMIs Show Record Inflation and ‘Green Light’ for BOE Hike Kremlin Says New U.S. Sanctions on Nord Stream 2 Are ‘Illegal’ ECB’s Knot Says New Lockdowns Won’t Delay Wind-Down of Stimulus Telefonica Drops, Berenberg Cuts on Spain Margin Problems In FX, the Buck had already eased off best levels to relieve some pressure from its rivals, but the Euro also derived encouragement from the fact that a key long term Fib held (just) at 1.1225 before getting a rather unexpected fundamental fillip in the form of stronger than forecast flash Eurozone PMIs plus hawkish-sounding comments from ECB’s Schnabel. Eur/Usd duly rebounded to 1.1275 and the Dollar index retreated to 96.308 from a fresh y-t-d peak of 96.603, while the Yen and Franc also took advantage to varying degrees against the backdrop of deteriorating risk sentiment and in thinner trading volumes for the former due to Japan’s Labor Day Thanksgiving holiday. Usd/Jpy recoiled from 115.15 to 114.49 at one stage and Usd/Chf to 0.9301 from 0.9335 before both pairs bounced with the Greenback and a rebound in US Treasury yields ahead of Markit’s preliminary PMIs and Usd 59 bn 7 year note supply. TRY - Simply no respite for the Lira via another marked pull-back in oil prices on heightened prospects of SPR taps, the aforementioned Buck breather or even a decent correction as Usd/Try extended its meteoric rise beyond 11.5000 and 12.0000 towards 12.5000 irrespective of an ally of Turkish President Erdogan urging a debate on CBRT independence. Instead, the run and capital flight continues as talks with the IMF make no progress and an EU court condemns the country for detaining 400+ judges after the coup, while the President rules out a snap election after recent calls for an earlier vote than the scheduled one in 2023 by the main opposition party. NZD/CAD/GBP/AUD - It remains to be seen whether the RBNZ maintains a 25 bp pace of OCR normalisation overnight, but weak NZ retail activity in Q3 may be a telling factor and is applying more downside pressure on the Kiwi across the board, as Nzd/Usd hovers under 0.6950 and the Aud/Nzd cross tests 1.0425 on relative Aussie strength or resilience gleaned from another spike in iron ore that is helping to keep Aud/Usd above 0.7200. Conversely, the latest downturn in crude is undermining the Loonie and the Pound hardly derived any traction from better than anticipated UK PMIs even though they should provide the BoE more justification to hike rates next month. Usd/Cad has now breached 1.2700 and only stopped a few pips short of 1.2750 before fading ahead of comments from BoC’s Beaudry, while Cable topped out just over 1.3400 awaiting BoE Governor Bailey, whilst Haskel reaffirmed his stance in the transitory inflation camp, although suggested that if the labour market remains tight the Bank Rate will have to rise. SCANDI/EM - Hardly a shock that Brent’s reversal has hit the Nok alongside broader risk-aversion that is also keeping the Sek defensive in advance of the Riksbank, but the Zar is coping well considering Gold’s loss of Usd 1800+/oz status and test of chart support at the 100 DMA only a couple of Bucks off the 200. Similarly, the Cnh and Cny are still resisting general Usd strength and other negatives, with help from China’s State Council pledging to strengthen assistance to smaller firms perhaps. In commodities, WTI and Brent Jan'22 futures remain under pressure with the former back under USD 76/bbl (vs USD 76.59/bbl high) and the latter around USD 79/bbl (vs USD 79.63/bbl high). The WTI contract is also narrowly lagging Brent by some USD 0.30/bbl at the time of writing. Participants are keeping their eyes peeled for reserve releases from the US, potentially in coordination with other nations including China, Japan, and India – with inflation concerns being the common denominator. The move also comes in reaction to OPEC+ flouting calls by large oil consumers, particularly the US, to further open the taps beyond the group’s planned 400k BPD/m hikes. A source cited by Politico caveated that a final decision is yet to be made, and US officials are hoping that the threat of an SPR release would persuade OPEC+ to double their quotas at the Dec 2nd meeting. As it stands, Energy Intel journalist Bakr noted that she has not heard anything from OPEC+ officials about changing production plans, but delegates yesterday suggested that plans may be tweaked. Click here for the full Newsquawk analysis piece. Aside from this, US President Biden is also poised to give a speech on the economy, whilst the weekly Private Inventories will also be released today. Elsewhere, spot gold and have been drifting lower in what is seemingly a function of technical, with the yellow metal dipping under USD 1,800/oz from a USD 1,812/oz current high, with a cluster of DMAs present to the downside including the 100 DMA (around USD 1,793/oz), 200 DMA (around USD 1,791/oz) and 50 DMA (around USD 1,789/oz). Turning to base metals, LME copper holds a positive bias with prices on either side of USD 9,750/t, whilst Dalian iron ore surged overnight - with reports suggesting that steel de-stockpiling accelerated last week, and analysts suggesting that the market is betting on steelmakers in December. US Event Calendar 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 57.6 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Services PMI, est. 59.0, prior 58.7 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 59.1, prior 58.4 10am: Nov. Richmond Fed Index, est. 11, prior 12 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that yesterday we published our 2022 credit strategy outlook. See here for the full report. Craig has also put out a more detailed HY 2022 strategy document here and Karthik a more detail IG equivalent here. Basically we think spreads will widen as much as 30-40bps in IG and 120-160bps in HY due to a response to a more dramatic appreciation of the Fed being well behind the curve. This sort of move is consistent with typical mid-cycle ranges through history. We do expect this to mostly retrace in H2 as markets recover from the shock and growth remains decent and liquidity still high. We also published the results of our ESG issuer and investor survey where around 530 responded. Please see the results here. Today is the start of a new adventure as I’m doing my first overseas business trip in 20 months. It took me a stressful 2 hours last night to find and fill in various forms, download various apps and figure out how on earth I travel in this new world. Hopefully I’ve got it all correct or I’ll be turned back at the Eurostar gates! The interesting thing about not travelling is that I’ve filled the time doing other work stuff so productivity will suffer. So if I can do a CoTD today it’ll be done on an iPhone whilst racing through the French countryside. Actually finishing this off very early in a long taxi ride on the way to the train reminds me of how car sick I get working on my iPhone! The delights of travel are all coming flooding back. After much anticipation over recent weeks, we finally heard yesterday that President Biden would be nominating Fed Chair Powell for another four-year term at the helm of the central bank. In some ways the decision had been widely expected, and Powell was the favourite in prediction markets all along over recent months. But the Fed’s staff trading issues and reports that Governor Brainard was also being considered had led many to downgrade Powell’s chances, so there was an element of uncertainty going into the decision, even if any policy differences between the two were fairly marginal. In the end however, Biden opted for continuity at the top, with Brainard tapped to become Vice Chair instead. Powell’s nomination will require senate confirmation once again, but this isn’t expected to be an issue, not least with Powell having been confirmed in an 84-13 vote last time around. Further, Senate Banking Committee Chair Brown, viewed as a progressive himself, noted last week there should be no issue confirming Powell despite rumblings from progressive lawmakers. More important to watch out for will be who Biden selects for the remaining positions on the Fed Board of Governors, where there are still 3 vacant seats left to fill, including the position of Vice Chair for Supervision. In a statement released by the White House, it said that Biden intended to make those “beginning in early December”, so even with Powell staying on, there’s actually a reasonable amount of scope for Biden to re-shape the Fed’s leadership. A potential hint about who may be considered, President Biden noted his next appointments will “bring new diversity to the Fed.” President Biden, flanked by Powell and Brainard, held a press conference following the announcement. He noted maintaining the Fed’s independence and leadership stability informed his decision, and that Chair Powell assured the President he would focus on fighting inflation. He was apparently also assured that the Chair would work to combat climate change, perhaps an olive branch to those in his party that wanted a more progressive nominee. Powell and Brainard both followed up with remarks of their own, but didn’t stray from the recent Fed party line. In response to the decision, investors moved to bring forward their timing of the initial rate hike from the Fed, with one now just about priced by the time of their June 2022 meeting, whilst the dollar index (+0.54%) strengthened to a fresh one-year high. This reflects the perception among many investors that Brainard was someone who’d have taken the Fed on a more dovish trajectory. Inflation breakevens fell across the curve as well in response. Indeed the 4-year breakeven, which roughly coincides with the term of the next Fed chair, was down -3.8bps after yesterday’s session, with the bulk of that dive coming immediately after the confirmation of Powell’s nomination. Nevertheless, that decline in breakevens was more than outweighed by a shift higher in real rates that sent nominal yields noticeably higher. By the close, yields on 2yr (+7.8bps) and 5yr (+9.5bps) Treasuries were at their highest levels since the pandemic began, and those on 10yr Treasuries were also up +7.7bps, ending the session at 1.62%. 2yr yields were a full 14.1bps higher than the intra-day lows on Friday after the Austria lockdown news. We had similar bond moves in Europe too, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.0bps) moving higher throughout the session thanks to a shift in real rates. Another noticeable feature in the US was the latest round of curve flattening, with the 5s30s (-4.4bps) reaching its flattest level (+64.1bps) since the initial market panic over Covid-19 back in March 2020. The S&P 500 took a sharp turn heading into the New York close after trading in positive territory for most of the day, ultimately closing down -0.32%. Sector performance was mixed, energy (+1.81%) and financials (+1.43%) were notable outperformers on climbing oil prices and yields, while big tech companies across different sectors were hit by higher discount rates. The NASDAQ (-1.26%) ended the day lower, having pared back its initial gains that earlier put it on track to reach a record of its own. The other main piece of news yesterday came on the energy front, where it’s been reported that we could have an announcement as soon as today about a release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, potentially as part of a joint announcement with other nations. Oil prices were fairly resilient to the news, with Brent crude (+1.03%) and WTI (+0.85%) still moving higher, although both are down from their recent peaks as speculation of such a move has mounted. This could help put some downward pressure on inflation, but as recent releases have shown, price gains have been broadening out over the last couple of months to a wider swathe of categories, so it remains to be seen how helpful this will prove, and will obviously depend on how much is released along with how the OPEC+ group react. For their part, OPEC+ members noted that the moves from the US and its allies would force them to reconsider their production plans at their meeting next week. Looking ahead now, one of the main highlights today will come from the release of the flash PMIs for November, which will give us an initial indication of how the global economy has fared into the month. As mentioned yesterday, the Euro Area PMIs have been decelerating since the summer, so keep an eye out for how they’re being affected by the latest Covid wave. It’ll also be worth noting what’s happening to price pressures, particularly with inflation running at more than double the ECB’s target right now. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mixed with Shanghai Composite (+0.43%), CSI (+0.20%), KOSPI (-0.44%) and Hang Seng (-1.01%) diverging, while the Nikkei is closed for Labor Thanksgiving. The flash manufacturing PMI release from Australia (58.5 vs 58.2 previous) came in close to last month while both the composite (55 vs 52.1 previous) and services (55 vs 51.8 previous) accelerated. In Japan the Yen slid past an important level of 115 against the Dollar for the first time in four years after Powell was confirmed. This marks an overall slide of 10% this year making it the worst performer amongst advanced economy currencies. S&P 500 (-0.01%) and DAX futures (-0.31%) are flat to down with Europe seemingly catching up with the weak U.S. close. Before this, in Europe yesterday, equities continued to be subdued, with the STOXX 600 down -0.13% after trading in a tight range, as the continent reacted to another surge in Covid-19 cases. The move by Austria back into lockdown has raised questions as to where might be next, and Bloomberg reported that Chancellor Merkel told CDU officials yesterday that the recent surge was worse than anything seen so far, and that additional restrictions would be required. So the direction of travel all appears to be one way for the time being in terms of European restrictions, and even a number of less-affected countries are still seeing cases move in an upward direction, including France, Italy and the UK. So a key one to watch that’ll have big implications for economies and markets too. Staying on Germany, there was some interesting news on a potential coalition yesterday, with Bloomberg obtaining a preliminary list of cabinet positions that said that FDP leader Christian Lindner would become finance minister, and Green co-leader Robert Habeck would become a “super minister” with responsibility for the economy, climate protection and the energy transition. The report also said that both would become Vice Chancellors, whilst the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock would become foreign minister. It’s worth noting that’s still a preliminary list, and the coalition agreement is yet to be finalised, but it has been widely suggested that the parties are looking to reach a conclusion to the talks this week, so we could hear some more info on this relatively soon. There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, though the European Commission’s advance November consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area fell back by more than expected to -6.8 (vs. -5.5 expected), which is the lowest it’s been since April. Over in the US, there was October data that was somewhat more positive however, with existing home sales rising to an annualised rate of 6.34m (vs. 6.20m expected), their highest level in 9 months. Furthermore, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index was up to 0.76 (vs. 0.10 expected). To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned flash PMIs for November from around the world, and there’s also the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the BoE’s Haskel, as well as ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Makhlouf. d Tyler Durden Tue, 11/23/2021 - 08:31.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 23rd, 2021

Mastercard (MA) Ties Up to Speed Up Digitization in the Caribbean

Mastercard (MA) collaborates with TTIFC with an aim to roll out solutions for boosting digital growth across Trinidad & Tobago and more broadly in the Caribbean. Mastercard Incorporated MA recently joined forces with Trinidad & Tobago International Financial Centre (“TTIFC”) in a bid to devise and implement solutions, which will ramp up digital growth across the country. Mastercard and TTIFC have inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to bring this endeavor to fruition.Shares of Mastercard lost 2.4% on Nov 19, replicating declines in broader markets.Mastercard has always worked closely with governments and fintech companies stretched globally to harness the potential of increasing adoption of digital means — a trend that has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the aid of this experience coupled with its global technology platforms, network and expertise, MA will drive digital transformation in Trinidad & Tobago.First of all, Mastercard and TTIFC will strengthen ties with the country’s fintechs to roll out reliable digital payment solutions that benefit small and medium-sized businesses. Subsequently, the companies can assist the government in enhanced usage of technologies aimed at digitization of payments related to disbursement of social benefits, payroll management and other public sector payments.The latest move reinforces Mastercard’s efforts to strengthen its presence in Trinidad & Tobago and more broadly in the Caribbean. The region has been witnessing substantial growth in digital interactions and robust demand for technological solutions. And Trinidad & Tobago continues to contribute significantly to the digital growth of the region, which makes the recent partnership a time opportune one.Also, the recent move will help Mastercard, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), in moving closer to its global commitment of bringing 1 billion people and 50 million micro and small businesses under the ambit of a growing digital economy within 2025.Needless to say, Mastercard remains the preferred choice of fintechs owing to its strong brand name, local knowledge, expanded capabilities, extensive network and global presence. Initiatives similar to the latest one not only highlight MA’s robust digital capabilities but also bolster its global footprint. Mastercard has remained steadfast in promoting rapid adoption of digital means.As part of its digital transformation efforts, MA keeps on collaborating with several local and globally renowned organizations. The leading worldwide technology company in the payments industry undertakes significant investments to upgrade digital capabilities. This, in turn, has resulted in a robust digital services suite and helped Mastercard in penetrating further into the inaccessible areas resulting in enhanced management of global payments.Apart from Mastercard, other companies like Visa Inc. V, American Express Company AXP and The Western Union Company WU have also resorted to several digital transformation efforts for capitalizing on the prevailing scenario.Visa remains focused on launching innovative card offerings, technology advancements and introductions of secured digital payment options to cater to the evolving needs of consumers. While Visa B2B Connect keeps on adding partners to its network, Visa Direct’s digital payment capabilities have been leveraged by several organizations.American Express continues to pursue a host of measures focused on technology upgradations, introduction of secured digital solutions and assisting businesses in regulating payments. AXP has also been pursuing several buyouts and partnerships in the past, which are aimed at solidifying its digital capabilities and offering increased card locations to its Card Members.Western Union pursues a digital partnership strategy for upgrading and digitizing the money movement process for consumers and businesses. Given the robust demand for real-time payments and increased smartphone usage, the solid digital arm of WU was built through several digital tie-ups and substantial investments. Western Union has been entering into several collaborations with global and local financial service providers, which are aimed at bolstering digital services portfolio, facilitating enhanced management of global payments and boosting customer experience.Shares of Mastercard have gained 2.3% in a year against the industry’s decline of 19.8%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhile American Express stock has gained 49.5% in a year, Visa and Western Union's shares have lost 3.6% and 22%, respectively, in the same time frame. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Free Stock Analysis Report Visa Inc. (V): Free Stock Analysis Report American Express Company (AXP): Free Stock Analysis Report The Western Union Company (WU): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 22nd, 2021

Futures Trade Near All Time High As Traders Shrug At Inflation, Covid Concerns

Futures Trade Near All Time High As Traders Shrug At Inflation, Covid Concerns US equity futures and European markets started the Thanksgiving week on an upbeat note as investors set aside fear of surging inflation and focused on a pickup in M&A activity while China signaled possible easing measures. The euphoria which lifted S&P futures up some 0.5% overnight and just shy of all time highs ended abruptly and futures reversed after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the Covid situation in the country is worse than anything so far and tighter curbs are needed. At 730 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 95 points, or 0.26%. S&P 500 e-minis were up 12.25 points, or 0.26% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 58.75 points, or 0.357%. U.S. stocks trade near record levels, outpacing the rest of the world, as investors see few alternatives amid rising inflation and a persistent pandemic that undermines global recovery. Concerns about high valuations and the potential for the economy to run too hot on the back of loose monetary and fiscal policies have interrupted, but not stopped the rally. In other words, as Bloomberg puts it "bears are winning the argument, bulls are winning in the market" while Nasdaq futures hit another record high as demand for technology stocks remained strong. “Based on historical data, the Thanksgiving week is a strong week for U.S. equities,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “Black Friday sales will be closely watched. The good news is, people still have money to spend, even though they get less goods and services in exchange of what’s spent.” In premarket moves, heavyweights, including most FAANG majors, rose in premarket trade. Vonage Holdings Corp. jumped 26% in premarket trading after Ericsson agreed to buy it. Telecom Italia SpA jumped as much as 30% in Europe after KKR offered to buy it for $12 billion. Energy stocks recovered slightly from last week's losses, although anticipation of several economic readings this week kept gains in check. Bank stocks rose in premarket trading as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed for the first time in three sessions to about 1.58%. S&P 500 futures gain as much as 0.5% on Monday morning. Tesla gained 2.8% after Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted that Model S Plaid will "probably" be coming to China around March. Activision Blizzard (ATVI.O) slipped 1.1% after a media report that the video game publisher's top boss, Bobby Kotick, would consider leaving if he cannot quickly fix culture problems. Travel and energy stocks, which were among the worst performers last week, also marked small gains before the open. Here is a list of the other notable premarket movers: Astra Space (ASTR US) shares surge 33% in premarket trading after the company said its rocket reached orbit. Aurora Innovation (AUR US) falls 8% in premarket, after soaring 71% last week amid a surge in popularity for self-driving technology companies among retail traders. Chinese electric-carmaker Xpeng (XPEV US) rises as much as 2.8% premarket after co. unveils a large sports-utility vehicle pitted more directly against Tesla’s Model Y and Nio’s ES series. Stocks of other EV makers are mixed. Monster Beverage (MNST US)., the maker of energy drinks, is exploring a combination with Corona brewer Constellation Brands (STZ US), according to people familiar with the matter. CASI Pharma (CASI US) jumped 17% in postmarket trading after CEO Wei-Wu He disclosed the purchase of 400,000 shares in a regulatory filing. Along with an eye on the Fed's plans for tightening policy, investors are also watching for an announcement from Joe Biden on his pick for the next Fed chair. Powell was supposed to make his decision by the weekend but has since delayed it repeatedly. Investors expect current chair Jerome Powell to stay on for another term, although Fed Governor Lael Brainard is also seen as a candidate for the position. “Bringing the most dovish of the doves wouldn’t guarantee a longer period of zero rates,” Ozkardeskaya wrote. “If the decisions are based on economic fundamentals, the economy is calling for a rate hike. And it’s calling for it quite soon.” The Stoxx 600 trimmed gains after German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for tighter Covid-19 restrictions. European telecom shares surged after KKR’s offer to buy Telecom Italia for about $12 billion, which boosted sentiment about M&A in the sector. The Stoxx 600 Telecommunications Index gained as much as 1.6%, the best-performing sector gauge for the region: Telefonica +4.8%, Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane +4%, KPN +2.7%. Meanwhile, telecom equipment stock Ericsson underperforms the rest of the SXKP index, falling as much as 4.9% after a deal to buy U.S. cloud communication provider Vonage; Danske Bank says the price is “quite steep”. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as Covid-19 resurgences in Europe triggered risk-off sentiment across markets amid weaker oil prices, a strong U.S. dollar and higher bond yields. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3%, with India’s Sensex measure slumping the most since April as Paytm’s IPO weighed on sentiment. The country’s oil giant Reliance dragged down the Asian index after scrapping a deal with Saudi Aramco, and energy and financials were the biggest sector losers in the region. Asian markets have turned softer after capping their first weekly retreat this month, following lackluster moves from economically sensitive sectors in the U.S., while investors continue to monitor earnings reports of big Chinese technology firms this week. “Some impact from the regulatory risks and dull macroeconomic conditions have shown up in several Chinese big-tech earnings and that may put investors on the sidelines as earnings season continues,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte., wrote in a note. China’s equity gauge posted a second straight day of gains after the central bank’s quarterly report indicated a shift toward easing measures to bolster the economic recovery. South Korea led gains in the region, with the Kospi adding more than 1%, helped by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Asia’s chip-related shares rose after comments from Micron Technology CEO Sanjay Mehrotra added to optimism the global shortage of semiconductors is easing. Reports of Japan earmarking $6.8 billion to bolster domestic chipmaking and Samsung planning to announce the location of its new chip plant in the U.S. also aided sentiment. Japanese stocks fluctuated after U.S. shares retreated on Friday following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The Topix index was virtually unchanged at 2,044.16 as of 2:21 p.m. Tokyo time, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.1% to 29,783.92. Out of 2,180 shares in the index, 1,107 rose and 948 fell, while 125 were unchanged. “There are uncertainties surrounding the direction of U.S. monetary policy,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute Co. “The latest comments from FRB members are spurring talk that steps to taper could accelerate.” Australian stocks sunk as banks tumbled to almost a 4-month low. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.6% to close at 7,353.10, weighed down by banks and technology stocks as the measure for financial shares finished at the lowest level since July 30.  Nickel Mines was the top performer after agreeing to expand its strategic partnership with Shanghai Decent. Flight Centre fell for a second session, ending at its lowest close since Sept. 20, as the Covid-19 situation worsens in Europe. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1% to 12,607.64. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index holds Asia’s narrow range, trading little changed on the day. AUD outperforms G-10 peers, extending Asia’s modest gains. SEK and JPY are the weakest. RUB lags in EMFX, dropping as much as 1% versus the dollar with USD/RUB on a 74-handle. According to Bloomberg, hedge funds’ bullishness toward the dollar is starting to evaporate amid speculation the U.S. currency has risen too much given the Federal Reserve remains adamant it’s in no rush to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, the euro pared modest Asia session losses to trade below $1.13, while European bond yields edged higher, led by bunds and gilts. The pound dipped after comments from Bank of England policy makers raised questions about the certainty of an interest-rate increase in December. Governor Andrew Bailey said that the risks to the U.K. economy are “two-sided” in a weekend interview. Australian dollar advanced against the kiwi on position tweaking ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ’s rate decision, and after China’s central bank removed sticking with “normal monetary policy” from its policy outlook. Yen declines as speculation China will steer toward more accommodative policy damps the currency’s haven appeal. Hungary’s forint tumbled to a record low against the euro as back-to-back interest rate increases failed to shield it during a rapidly deteriorating pandemic and a flight to safer assets. In commodities, crude futures drifted higher. WTI rises 0.3% near $76.20, Brent regains at $79-handle. Spot gold has a quiet session trading near $1,844/oz. Base metal are mixed: LME copper, tin and zinc post small losses; lead and nickel are in the green Looking at today's calendar, we get the October Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales data, and the Euro Area advance November consumer confidence. Zoom is among the companies reporting earnings. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,710.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 487.45 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.34% Euro little changed at $1.1283 MXAP down 0.2% to 198.88 MXAPJ down 0.2% to 647.20 Nikkei little changed at 29,774.11 Topix little changed at 2,042.82 Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 24,951.34 Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,582.08 Sensex down 2.0% to 58,450.84 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,353.08 Kospi up 1.4% to 3,013.25 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $79.22/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,846.10 U.S. Dollar Index also little changed at 96.08 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Negotiators hammering out details of a transformative new global corporate tax regime are shaping the deal to maximize its chance of winning acceptance in the U.S., whose companies face the biggest impact from the overhaul The U.S. has shared intelligence including maps with European allies that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a rapid, large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, according to people familiar with the conversations. The ruble slid to the weakest since August and the hryvnia fell With investors ramping up expectations for the Federal Reserve and other developed-market central banks to tighten policy, the likes of the Brazilian real and Hungarian forint have been weighed down by inflation and political concerns even as local officials pushed up borrowing costs. The Chinese yuan, Taiwanese dollar and Russian ruble have been among the few to stand their ground An organization formed by key participants in China’s currency market urged banks to limit speculative foreign-exchange trading after the yuan climbed to a six-year high versus peers The Avalanche cryptocurrency has surged in the past several days, taking it briefly into the top 10 by market value and surpassing Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, after a deal related to improvement of U.S. disaster-relief funding A more detailed breakdown of overnight news courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following last Friday's mostly negative performance stateside, where risk appetite was dampened by concerns of a fourth COVID wave in Europe and recent hawkish Fed rhetoric. Weekend newsflow was light and the mood was tentative heading into this week's risk events including FOMC minutes and US GDP data before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ASX 200 (-0.6%) was subdued with declines led by weakness in gold miners and the energy sector. The Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was lacklustre after last week’s inflows into the JPY but with downside eventually reversed as the currency faded some of the gains and following the recent cabinet approval of the stimulus spending. The KOSPI (+1.4%) outperformed and reclaimed the 3k level with shares in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics rallying as its de facto leader tours the US which spurred hopes the Co. could deploy its USD 100bln cash pile. The Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) diverged with the mainland kept afloat after the PBoC conducted a mild liquidity injection and maintained its Loan Prime Rate for a 19th consecutive month as expected, although Hong Kong was pressured by losses in energy and cautiousness among developers, as well as the recent announcement of increased constituents in the local benchmark. Finally, 10yr JGBs eked marginal gains amid the cautious risk tone in Asia and following firmer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr JGBs, but with upside capped as T-note futures continued to fade Friday’s early gains that were fuelled by the COVID-19 concerns in Europe before the advances were later halted by hawkish Fed rhetoric calling for a discussion on speeding up the tapering at next month’s meeting. Top Asian News China Blocks Peng Shuai News as It Seeks to Reassure World China FX Panel Urges Banks to Cap Speculation as Yuan Surges Paytm Founder Compares Himself to Musk After Historic IPO Flop China Tech Stocks Are Nearing Inflection Point, UBS GWM Says European cash bourses kicked off the new trading week with mild gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%) following a mixed APAC handover. Some have been attributing the mild gains across Europe in the context of the different approaches of the Fed and ECB, with the latter expected to remain dovish as the former moves tighter, while COVID lockdowns will restrict economic activity. News flow in the European morning has however been sparse, as participants look ahead to FOMC Minutes, Flash PMIs and US GDP ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday (full Newsquawk Desk Schedule on the headline feed) alongside the Fed Chair update from President Biden and a speech from him on the economy. US equity futures see modestly more pronounced gains, with the more cyclically-exposed RTY (+0.6%) performing better than then NQ (+0.4%), ES (+0.4%) and YM (+0.4%). Since the European cash open, the initial mildly positive momentum has somewhat waned across European cash and futures, with the region now conforming to a more mixed picture. Spain's IBEX (+0.7%) is the clear regional outperforming, aided by index heavyweight Telefonica (+5.0%), which benefits from the sectorial boost received by a couple of major M&A updates. Firstly, Telecom Italia (+22%) gapped higher at the open after KKR presented a EUR 0.505/shr offer for Telecom Italia. The offer presents a ~45% premium on Friday's close. Second, Ericsson (-3.5%) made a bid to acquire American publicly held business cloud communications provider Vonage in a deal worth USD 6.2bln. As things stand, the Telecom sector is the clear outperformer, closely followed by banks amid a revival in yields. The other end of the spectrum sees Travel & Leisure back at the foot of the bunch as COVID fears in Europe mount. In terms of individual movers, Vestas Wind Systems (-2.0%) was hit as a cyber incident that impacted parts of its internal IT structure and data has been compromised. Looking ahead, it’s worth noting that volume will likely be more muted towards the latter half of the week on account of the Thanksgiving holiday. Top European News Scholz Closer to German Chancellery as Cabinet Takes Shape Austria Back in Lockdown Ahead of Mandatory Vaccine Policy Energy Crunch Drives Carbon to Record as Europe Burns More Coal BP Goes on Hydrogen Hiring Spree in Bid for 10% Market Share In FX, the Antipodean Dollars are outperforming at the start of the new week on specific supportive factors, like a bounce in the price of iron ore and a further re-opening from pandemic restrictions in both Australia and New Zealand, while the REINZ shadow board is ‘overwhelmingly’ behind another RBNZ rate hike this week. Aud/Usd is holding around 0.7250 and Nzd/Usd is hovering circa 0.7000 as the Aud/Nzd cross pivots 1.0350 in the run up to flash Aussie PMIs and NZ retail sales. DXY - Aussie and Kiwi strength aside, the Greenback retains a solid underlying bid on safe haven and increasingly hawkish Fed grounds after a run of recent much better than expected US data. In index terms, a base just above 96.000 provides a platform to retest last week’s peaks at 96.245 and 96.266 vs 96.223 so far, but Monday’s agenda may not give bulls much in the way of encouragement via data with only existing home sales scheduled. Instead, the Buck could derive more impetus from Treasuries given front-loaded supply ahead of Thanksgiving in the form of Usd 58 bn 2 year and Usd 59 bn 5 year notes. CHF/CAD/EUR/GBP/JPY - All narrowly mixed against their US rival, as the Franc keeps its head above 0.9300 and meanders between 1.0485-61 vs the Euro amidst some signs of official intervention from a rise in weekly Swiss sight deposits at domestic banks. Meanwhile, the Loonie has some leverage from a mild rebound in crude prices to pare declines from sub-1.2650 and should glean support into 1.2700 from 1 bn option expiries at 1.2685 on any further risk aversion or fallout in WTI. Conversely, 1 bn option expiry interest from 1.1300-05 could scupper Euro recoveries from Friday’s new y-t-d low around 1.1250 against the backdrop of ongoing COVID-19 contagion and pre-ECB speakers plus preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence. Elsewhere, the Pound is weighing up BoE tightening prospects and the impact of no breakthrough between the UK and EU on NI Protocol as Cable and Eur/Gbp straddle the 1.3435-40 zone and 0.8400 respectively, while the Yen has unwound more of its safe haven premium within a 114.27-113.91 range eyeing UST yields in relation to JGBs alongside overall risk sentiment. SCANDI/EM - The Nok is deriving some traction from Brent back over Usd 79/brl, but geopolitical concerns are preventing the Rub from benefiting and the Mxn is also on a weaker footing along with most EM currencies. However, the Try is striving to draw a line in the sand irrespective of a marked deterioration in Turkish consumer sentiment and the Cnh/Cny are holding up well regardless of a softer PBoC fix for the onshore unit as LPRs were unchanged yet again and China’s FX regulator told banks to limit Yuan spec trades. In CEE, the Pln has plunged on diplomatic strains between Poland and the EU, the Huf has depreciated to all time lows on virus fears and the Czk has been hampered by CNB’s Holub downplaying the chances of more big tightening surprises such as the aggressive hike last time. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures see some consolidation following Friday’s slide in prices. In terms of the fundamentals, the demand side of the equations continues to be threatened by the fourth wave of COVID, namely in the European nations that have not had a successful vaccine rollout. As a reminder, Austria is in a 20-day nationwide lockdown as of today, whilst Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands see tighter restrictions, with the latter two also experiencing COVID-related social unrest over the weekend. The European Commission will on Wednesday issue a set of new recommendations to its member states on non-essential travel, a senior EU diplomat said, which will be watched for activity and jet fuel demand. Over to the supply side, There were weekend reports that Japan and the US are planning a joint announcement regarding the SPR release, although a key Japanese official later noted there was no fixed plan yet on releasing reserves. Japanese PM Kishida confirmed that they are considering releasing oil reserves to curb prices. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear talks are regaining focus as negotiations are poised to resume on the 29th of November – it is likely we’ll see officials telegraph their stances heading into the meeting. Eyes will be on whether the US offers an olive branch as Tehran stands firm. Elsewhere, the next OPEC+ meeting is also looming, but against the backdrop of lower prices, COVID risk and SPR releases, it is difficult to see a scenario where OPEC+ will be more hawkish than dovish. WTI and Brent Jan trade on either side of USD 76/bbl and USD 79/bbl respectively and within relatively narrow bands. Spot gold and silver meanwhile see a mild divergence, with the yellow metal constrained by resistance in the USD 1,850/oz area, whilst spot silver rebounded off support at USD 24.50/oz. Finally, base metals are relatively mixed with no standout performers to point out. LME copper is flat but holds onto USD 9,500+/t status. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.10, prior -0.13 10am: Oct. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.8%, prior 7.0% 10am: Oct. Home Resales with Condos, est. 6.18m, prior 6.29m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap This morning we’ve just published our 2022 credit strategy outlook. 2021 has been one of the lowest vol years for credit on record but we think this is unlikely to last and spreads will sell-off at some point in H1 when markets reappraise how far behind the curve the Fed is. Even with covid restrictions mounting again in Europe as we go to print, we think it’s more likely that we’ll be in a “growthflationary” environment for 2022 and think overheating risks are more acute than the stagflation risk, especially in the US. Strong growth and high liquidity should mean that full year 2022 is a reasonable year for credit overall but if we’re correct there’ll be regular pockets of inflationary/interest rate concerns in the market, which we think is more likely to happen in H1. At the H1 wides, we could see spreads widen as much as 30-40bps in IG and 120-160bps in HY which is consistent with typical mid-cycle ranges through history. We do expect this to mostly retrace in H2 as markets recover from the shock and growth remains decent and liquidity still high. However, with the potential for a shift in the narrative to potential late-cycle dynamics, we think spreads will close 2022 slightly wider than they are today. We will be watching the yield curve closely through the year for clues as to how the cycle will evolve into 2023. This has the ability to move our YE 22 forecasts in both directions as the year progresses. This week will be heavily compressed given Thanksgiving on Thursday. The highlight though will be a likely choice of Fed governor before this, assuming the timetable doesn’t slip again. Overnight it’s been announced that Biden will give a speech to the American people tomorrow on the economy and prices. It’s possible the Fed Chair gets announced here and perhaps plans to release oil from the strategic reserve. We will see. Following that, Wednesday is especially busy as a pre-holiday US data dump descends upon us. We’ll see the minutes of the November 3rd FOMC meeting and earlier that day the core PCE deflator (the Fed's preferred inflation metric), Durable Goods, the UoM sentiment index (including latest inflation expectations), new home sales and jobless claims amongst a few other releases. More internationally, covid will be focus, especially in Europe as Austria enters lockdown today after the shock announcement on Friday. Germany is probably the swing factor here for sentiment in Europe so case numbers will be watched closely. Staying with Germany, there’s anticipation that a coalition agreement could be reached in Germany between the SPD, Greens and the FDP, almost two months after their federal election. Otherwise, the flash PMIs for November will be in focus, with the ECB following the Fed and releasing the minutes from their recent meeting on Thursday. As discussed at the top the most important market event this week is likely to be on the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, as it’s been widely reported that President Biden is expected to announce his choice on who’ll be the next Fed Chair by Thanksgiving on Thursday. Previous deadlines have slipped on this announcement, but time is becoming increasingly limited given the need for Senate confirmation ahead of Chair Powell’s current four-year term expiring in early February. The two names that are quite obviously in the frame are incumbent Chair Powell and Governor Brainard, but there are also a number of other positions to fill at the Fed in the coming months, with Vice Chair Clarida’s term as an FOMC governor expiring in January, Randal Quarles set to leave the Board by the end of this year, and another vacant post still unfilled. So a significant opportunity for the Biden administration to reshape the top positions at the Fed. In spite of all the speculation over the position of the Fed Chair, our US economists write in their latest Fed update (link here), that the decision is unlikely to have a material impact on the broad policy trajectory. Inflation in 2022 is likely to remain at levels that make most Fed officials uncomfortable, whilst the regional Fed presidents rotating as voters lean more hawkish next year, so there’ll be constraints to how policy could shift in a dovish direction, even if an incoming chair wanted to move things that way. Another unconfirmed but much anticipated announcement this week could come from Germany, where there’s hope that the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP will finally reach a coalition agreement. The general secretaries of all three parties have recently said that they hope next week will be when a deal is reached, and a deal would pave the way for the SPD’s Olaf Scholz to become chancellor at the head of a 3-party coalition. Nevertheless, there are still some hurdles to clear before then, since an agreement would mark the start of internal party approval processes. The FDP and the SPD are set to hold a party convention, whilst the Greens have announced that their members will vote on the agreement. On the virus, there is no doubt things are getting worse in Europe but it’s worth putting some of the vaccine numbers in some context. Austria (64% of total population) has a double vaccination rate that is somewhat lower than the likes of Spain (79%), Italy (74%), France (69%), the UK (69%) and Germany (68%). The UK for all its pandemic fighting faults is probably as well placed as any due to it being more advanced on the booster campaign due to an earlier vaccine start date and also due to higher natural infections. It was also a conscious decision back in the summer in the UK to flatten the peak to take load off the winter wave. So this is an area where scientists and the government may have made a calculated decision that pays off. Europe is a bit behind on boosters versus the UK but perhaps these will accelerate as more people get 6 months from their second jab, albeit a bit too late to stop some kind of winter wave. There may also be notable divergence within Europe. Countries like Italy and Spain (and to a slightly lesser extent France) that were hit hard in the initial waves have a high vaccination rate so it seems less likely they will suffer the dramatic escalation that Austria has seen. Germany is in the balance as they have had lower infection rates which unfortunately may have encouraged slightly lower vaccination rates. The irony here is that there is some correlation between early success/lower infections and lower subsequent vaccination rates. The opposite is also true - i.e. early bad outcomes but high vaccination rates. The US is another contradiction as it’s vaccination rate of 58% is very low in the developed world but it has had high levels of natural infections and has a higher intolerance for lockdowns. So tough to model all the above. Overall given that last winter we had no vaccines and this year we have very high levels of protection it seems unfathomable that we’ll have an outcome anywhere near as bad. Yes there will be selected countries where the virus will have a more severe impact but most developed countries will likely get by without lockdowns in my opinion even if the headlines aren’t always going to be pleasant. Famous last words but those are my thoughts. In light of the rising caseloads, the November flash PMIs should provide some context for how the global economy has performed into the month. We’ve already seen a deceleration in the composite PMIs for the Euro Area since the summer, so it’ll be interesting to see if that’s maintained. If anything the US data has reaccelerated in Q4 with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow series at 8.2% for the quarter after what will likely be a revised 2.2% print on Wednesday for Q3. Time will tell if Covid temporarily dampens this again. Elsewhere datawise, we’ll also get the Ifo’s latest business climate indicator for Germany on Wednesday, which has experienced a similar deceleration to other European data since the summer. The rest of the week ahead appears as usual in the day-by-day calendar at the end. Overnight in Asia stocks are mixed with the KOSPI (+1.31%) leading the pack followed by the Shanghai Composite (+0.65%) and CSI (+0.53%), while the Nikkei (-0.18%) and Hang Seng (-0.35%) are lower. Stocks in China are being boosted by optimism that the PBOC would be easing its policy stance after its quarterly monetary policy report on Friday dropped a few hints to that effect. Futures are pointing towards a positive start in the US and Europe with S&P 500 futures (+0.31%) and DAX futures (+0.14%) both in the green. Turning to last week now, rising Covid cases prompted renewed lockdown measures to varying degrees and hit risk sentiment. Countries across Europe implemented new lockdown measures and vaccine requirements to combat the latest rise in Covid cases. The standouts included Austria and Germany. Austria will start a nationwide lockdown starting today and will implement a compulsory Covid vaccine mandate from February. Germany will restrict leisure activities and access to public transportation for unvaccinated citizens and announced a plan to improve vaccination efforts. DM ten-year yields decreased following the headline. Treasury, bund, and gilt yields declined -3.8bps, -6.7bps, and -4.6bps on Friday, respectively, bringing the weekly totals to -1.3bps, -8.3bps, and -3.5bps, respectively. The broad dollar appreciated +0.54% Friday, and +0.98% over the week. Brent and WTI futures declined -2.89% and -3.68% on Friday following global demand fears, after drifting -4.27% and -5.79% lower throughout the week as headlines circulated that the US and allies were weighing whether to release strategic reserves. European equity indices declined late in the week as the renewed lockdown measures were publicized. The Stoxx 600, DAX, and CAC 40 declined -0.33%, -0.38%, and -0.42%, respectively on Friday, bringing their weekly totals to -0.14%, +0.41%, and +0.29%. The S&P 500 index was also hit ending the week +0.32% higher after declining -0.14% Friday, though weekly gains were concentrated in big technology and consumer discretionary stocks. U.S. risk markets were likely supported by the U.S. House of Representatives passing the Biden Administration’s climate and social spending bill. The bill will proceed to the Senate, where its fate lays with a few key moderate Democrats. This follows President Biden signing a physical infrastructure bill into law on Monday. On the Fed, communications from officials took a decidedly more hawkish turn on inflation dynamics, especially from dovish members. Whether the Fed decides to accelerate its asset purchase taper at the December FOMC will likely be the key focus in markets heading into the meeting. Ending the weekly wrap up with some positive Covid news: the U.S. Food and Drug Administration cleared Pfizer and Moderna booster shots for all adults. Additionally, the US will order 10 million doses of Pfizer’s Covid pill. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/22/2021 - 07:49.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 22nd, 2021

Returning To Sound Money

Returning To Sound Money Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com, With the threat of dollar hyperinflation now becoming a reality it is time to consider what will be required to stabilise the currency, and by extension the other fiat currencies which regard the dollar as their reserve. This article takes its cue from Ludwig von Mises’s 1952 analysis of what was required to return to a proper and enduring gold standard —metallic money, particularly gold, having been sound money for thousands of years, to which everyone has always returned when government fiat currency fails. When Mises wrote his 1952 article the dollar was nowhere near the state it is in today. But Mises had had practical experience of what was involved, having advised the Austrian government during and after its hyperinflation of the early 1920s, making his analysis doubly relevant. As a remedy for the developing collapse of the dollar, this article can do little more than address the major issues. But it shows how an economic and monetary collapse of the dollar can be turned to advantage - the opportunity it creates through the destruction of Keynesian and other inflationist fallacies to secure long-term economic and monetary stability under which economic progress can be maximised. Introduction There are two charts which sum up why the dollar and fiat currencies tied to it will collapse if current monetary policies persist, shown in Figure 1. The growth in the M1 quantity since February 2020 has been without precedent exploding from $4 trillion, already an historically high level, to nearly $20 trillion this September. That is an average annualised M1 inflation of 230%. It is simply currency debasement and has yet to impact on prices fully. Much of the increase has gone into the financial sector through quantitative easing, so its progress into the non-financial economy and the effects on consumer prices are delayed — but only delayed — as it will increasingly undermine the dollar’s purchasing power. The more immediate impact on the High Street is also alarming, shown in the second chart. A combination of the covid lockdowns and Federal Government money ending up in consumers’ pockets has driven their liquidity relative to goods purchases to unprecedented and unaccustomed heights. This is the more worrying chart because it quantifies the immediate fuel for a potential crack-up boom. A crack-up boom is the condition whereby consumers finally discard the currency, spending it to just get rid of it. We are not there yet, but clearly, if consumers take the view en masse that prices will continue to rise, then they will attempt to reduce their cash balances all at once by bringing their future purchases forward, thereby driving prices up even further and more rapidly, and therefore the purchasing power of the currency down. But for the moment, it is mostly creating a scramble for real assets, such as housing, which for the moment can be bought with mortgage finance fixed at deeply suppressed interest rates. Given supply constraints, rising commodity prices, and other production costs rising as well as unaccustomed levels of consumer liquidity, the rise in prices can only accelerate. Unless there is a fundamental change in monetary policy, which requires the expansion of currency to be stopped completely, there will come a point where consumers finally realise that it is not prices rising but the purchasing power of the currency falling. This is a difficult concept for most people to grasp because they are used to regarding currency as always possessing the objective value in their transactions. The history of monetary inflations confirms that ordinary folk have always been reluctant to understand that the currency is declining until too late. But today, a significant minority of the population has already been alerted to this development by their participation in or observation of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. And if the wider population learns the same lesson and acts accordingly all hope for the currency will be lost. The reason that changes in the quantity of currency recorded by narrow measures such as M1 must be closely watched is that it is the underlying base upon which bank credit is expanded. When interest rates inevitably begin to rise, rates paid to bank depositors are likely to lag, improving lending margins for banks. Improved lending margins will encourage the banks to expand credit, for the benefit of government and agency bonds, and for speculators such as hedge fund managers looking to arbitrage the difference between borrowing rates and the dollar’s future purchasing power. The narrow currency quantity therefore has a multiplier effect with respect to bank credit when it begins to expand. A dispassionate consideration of these established facts leads the independent observer to conclude that unless today’s fiat currency system is secured with a sound money regime a collapse of everyone’s circulating medium is inevitable. Putting to one side minor central banks, the most egregious debaser of currency is the Fed, as the charts above attest. But with the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, where the dollar goes, so will all the other western currencies. Fixing the dollar must be the priority. In a revised 1952 edition of his The Theory of Money and Credit, Ludwig von Mises added a section on The Return to Sound Money. Mises, who had cut his teeth as an economist dealing with Austria’s 1920s inflation made proposals which are still relevant. Under the influence of Keynesianism, the monetary situation facing America today is rapidly deteriorating towards the circumstances faced by Austria in 1920-22, but with technical differences. This article attempts to update Mises’s section on the return to sound money for current conditions to provide a framework for the benefit of monetary stability and long-term prosperity. The intractability of current inflationism Central banks and their governments like to say that the reasons for an acceleration of monetary expansion are short-term and justified by being expedient. But these policies, often termed extraordinary measures to validate them, become normal as we have seen with quantitative easing. We can reasonably assume therefore that no meaningful attempt to rein in currency debasement will occur, more extraordinary measures will be invented, and that the explosion in the M1 quantity is far from over. Changing the official mindset is proving an impossible task so long as currency expansion is available. The Federal Government relies on it as a growing source for its funding, which allows it to ignore budget deficits. The state employs bureaucrats who agree with this policy and is advised only by economists who are prepared to justify it. The whole establishment is in groupthink mode and brooks no criticism over its inflationism. Furthermore, the administration has been democratically elected on a platform of continuing to provide free and easy money. This is not a sudden phenomenon, being progressively ingrained in the establishment’s mindset for a century. It commenced with the establishment of the Fed before the First World War, which then fuelled an artificial boom in the 1920s after the brief post-war recession. The American state gradually subsumed control over money, removing it from transacting individuals and finally replacing it with completely fiat dollars in 1971. The course that the state had set itself was bound to lead to where we are now; the expansion of dollar currency getting out of control. Nowhere in the Fed’s regular FOMC statements is there any mention of monetary policy per se. It is as if the quantity of currency in circulation is irrelevant to its purchasing power. It is an important cover-up, because if the relationship between the quantity of money and its purchasing power was admitted, then the Fed would have to exercise control over it. And not only would an admission of the relationship be a public acknowledgement of currency mismanagement, not only would the US Treasury come down on the Fed like a ton of bricks for jeopardising its source of non-fiscal revenue, but inflation of the currency would no longer be freely available as a policy tool. One likes to think that there are policy makers with an understanding that inflation is of the quantity of dollars in circulation and not its effect on prices. But for a long time, it has not been in anyone’s interest to think this way — anyone who did so has been re-educated, sacked, or left the building. This is the essence of groupthink. It is worth noting that elsewhere, Jens Weidmann who is a well-known inflation hawk is resigning from the Bundesbank. And Andy Haldane has resigned as Chief Economist from the Bank of England, with a parting shot on inflation. Both these gentlemen appear to have decided it is a fight they cannot win. The only chance of reform is from circumstances leading to the final abandonment of the neo-Keynesian policies that have promoted statism over free markets. And that is unlikely to occur before economic and currency destruction has become too obvious for anyone in control of economic and monetary policy to ignore. We cannot be certain that this realisation in official circles will occur before the public finally loses all confidence in the currency. But so long as any hope for its recovery lingers, it seems unlikely that monetary policy will be reformed. To statist economists, the argument for sound money and its adoption would not only be a negation of everything they have come to believe, but it will be seen as destroying all their so-called scientific progress, particularly since the adoption of Keynes’s General Theory as the economists’ vade mecum. Additionally, the use of statistics to guide policy, particularly of GDP and CPI, will have been found to have badly misled policy makers and markets. Along with statist management of the dollar, they must be abandoned. They are primarily tools for imposing state control on economic activity. The objective of the reformed approach is to return to free markets and sound money, which means handing responsibility for their actions back to economic actors, those who divide their labour and use money as the bridge between their production and consumption. These are a volte-face from current policies and are sure to be strongly resisted even in the face of contrary evidence. Monetary reform is bound to be delayed until the last possible moment. The state’s preference is always to retain and build on the control it already has. This is why there are plans to introduce central bank digital currencies, which, it must be noted, are designed to continue with inflationary stimulation by other means. But as revolutionary France discovered, the substitution of one fiat (the assignat) by another (mandat territoriaux) merely leads to the more rapid failure of the second. Once public trust in the state to not debauch the first currency is gone, it cannot be restored for a succeeding unbacked state currency. We can only assume that at some point in the dollar’s descent towards worthlessness the US Treasury will be prepared to mobilise its gold reserves to stop it becoming completely worthless. We shall now look at the measures that are required from that point to return to sound money, that is to back the dollar credibly with metallic money, only gold and silver coinage — anything less will not be a permanent solution. Initial actions to stabilise the currency At the time when monetary stabilisation becomes a practical proposition, interest rates and bond yields will have already been driven to previously unimagined levels, reflecting the currency’s collapse thus far. Write-offs from non-performing loans and losses on bond valuations will have almost certainly wiped out all the equity of weaker banks, and the survivability of the stronger ones will have become questionable as well. The Federal deposit insurance limit of $250,000 will have become meaningless and a banking crisis will become integral to the currency collapse as depositors attempt to flee from bank deposits into goods and gold. A collapse of the fiat banking system was not a material factor when Mises tackled the problem in 1952. He was absorbed with preventing the currency’s collapse in the future, a future which was some way off but is now almost upon us. The first action must be for the Fed to cease expanding the quantity of money and to introduce regulations to stop the expansion of total bank credit. The former is a simple task. In practice, controlling bank credit is also not difficult. If one bank increases its balance sheet, the increase must be matched by a decrease in the balance sheets of the other banks. This means that new loans can only be extended with the permission of the central bank centralising the information on bank and other licenced credit providers’ balance sheets. And net drawdowns of existing credit facilities must similarly be matched by repayments of others. This is intended as an interim measure pending further reform of the banking system. But the consequences for surviving banks will be significant and immediate. The stabilisation of the currency will lead to increased savings. The allocation of these increased savings to investment capital will be routed through bond markets instead of across the collective balance sheets of the banking system. It will be up to savers and their agents to decide individual borrowing terms. And all taxes on savings must be removed to enable them to recirculate into productive investment. However, these measures will be consistent with the plans for subsequent bank reform described below. The US Treasury will be competing for savers’ savings and will no longer have unrestricted access to bank credit. A bank wishing to increase its exposure to Treasury stock be able to do so by disposing of other assets, Alternatively, if other banks reduce their balance sheets permission might be obtained from the Fed on the lines described above. Whether buying Treasuries is a sensible commercial decision must be left to the individual bank, and Basel-originated regulations designed to give preference to government bills and bonds over other classifications of assets must be repealed. The objective is to permit the government and its agencies to borrow but only on a non-inflationary basis, with the investment decision purely decided by investors, their agents, and bankers making their own risk assessments without regulatory bias. It is doubtful at this stage of the hyperinflation that economic activity would suffer overall from the loss of state intervention. The economy will already be in the deepest slump in living memory, with interest rates at unimaginable heights and beyond the Fed’s control. Anyone going bust will have most probably done so already. In these conditions there cannot be a better time to ensure the state withdraws from economic and monetary intervention and to introduce plans to stabilise the currency. But on their own measures to halt currency and credit expansion would be insufficient to stabilise the dollar and dollar interest rates beyond a temporary basis without further measures, which must be our next consideration. The return to a gold standard To stabilise the dollar the US Treasury must recognise that gold is money and the dollar an inferior currency. Accordingly, all taxes on physical gold and silver must be removed, and both metals be permitted to be freely exchanged by the public for dollars. Given that the circumstance of the reintroduction of a gold standard are likely to be those of a last resort, we can assume that the market will have already repriced the dollar in gold terms. That being the case, the exchange ratio between gold and the dollar can be fixed along with the arrangements permitting gold coin and the dollar to circulate together, with the dollar and dollar-credit being converted into reliable gold-backed substitutes. Legislation would have to be enacted to enshrine gold convertibility as an inalienable property right, never to be taken away from the public in future. This must also remove future devaluations as a government option, and even in the event of a crisis, such as a war, full convertibility must be maintained. A new body must be established, or the role of the Exchange Stabilisation Fund amended to act only as the custodian for the relationship between dollars and gold, with the nation’s gold reserves transferred to its control. We shall call this fund the Exchange Stabilisation Fund (ESF) hereafter. Dealing in foreign currencies and SDRs by the ESF must cease, and no other government or central bank entity be permitted to deal in gold. After acquiring its initial reserve from the Treasury, the ESF cannot be permitted to initiate gold transactions. Only dealings initiated by the public, exchanging gold for dollars or dollars for gold are to be permitted. Thenceforth, the expansion of dollars in circulation must be backed 100% by gold to be held transparently in a special account for that purpose. The basis of convertibility must be on coins freely demanded by holders of dollars without limitation. Legislation must be passed for gold coins to be struck in suitable currency denominations to ensure their practical circulation. Silver coins must also be reintroduced by law for smaller amounts, and the issuance of paper notes suited for smaller purchases must be rescinded to ensure that silver coins and the smaller gold coins circulate. The purpose of coin circulation is to permit the public to continually vote on the government’s adherence to the new rules. The slightest indication that it is considering breaking them will, in accordance with Gresham’s Law, drive the good money out of circulation: in other words, gold coin will be hoarded, and its paper substitutes disposed through spending. The knowledge that this is so will discourage politicians from considering watering down the standard. The gold/silver ratio should be struck to give silver coins a minor premium over their bullion value to ensure they remain in circulation and are not diverted for industrial use or arbitraged into gold. This will avoid the pitfalls that plagued bimetallic standards in the past. The introduction of a working gold coin standard on these lines will lead to a rapid fall in borrowing rates from their hyperinflation highs. The sooner it is operating and the currency stabilised, the quicker the economy can return to normality, which will be an obvious benefit for those persuading the public the merits of sound money. Interest rates will then correlate with the general level of wholesale prices. The reason for this correlation is that sound money allows producers to calculate for their business plans with a high degree of certainty about final prices. With that certainty in mind, they can then assess the rate of interest they are prepared to pay savers for an enterprise to be profitable. The disciplines of a working gold coin standard will also require other changes to take place. Government reform The time during a currency collapse when it might be adapted into a proper gold standard is also the most dangerous politically. The population will be suffering real hardships and dangerously disaffected from the establishment that steered them onto the economic and monetary rocks. The middle and professional classes will have lost nearly everything. It is a political situation ripe for violent revolution. It drove the French revolution and following the First World War drove Germany into Nazism. It is the setting described by Hayek in his The Road to Serfdom. The departure from proper economics and the move towards increasing state control over the people militates for yet more socialism and violence, with a total monetary collapse being the excuse for total oppression of the people by the state. If that happens, the outcome is a different course of events from the constructive one proposed here. But we must assume that the great American nation, for all its recent faults and having lost its way with economics and socialist drift, pulls back from the brink of the abyss. Unlike Germany following its hyperinflation of the 1920s, America’s population is ethnically diverse, comprised in the main of the descendants of refugees from political and economic oppressions elsewhere. We should accept that when the outlook is darkest, a Hayekian-described dictator might not emerge, but a statesman instead, like an Erhardt, who emerged for Germany in the late 1940s. Paradoxically, public support for a reform of the American currency system probably offers a better chance of success than similar measures taken elsewhere. We must proceed with that assumption. The popular mandate for the role of government in the economy to be radically revised will therefore become available. Without the cover of inflationary financing, an economy based on sound money is more obviously incompatible with a high-spending government, which must then reduce its burden on the productive economy to the minimum possible. At its most fundamental, its obligation to provide mandated welfare must be strictly curtailed. The ambition is to reduce the role of government to framing and upholding the law and maintaining national defence — not to be confused with funding military adventures abroad. Foreign policy must return to that of Britain in the days of Liverpool, Castlereagh, and Wellington following the Napoleonic Wars: never to interfere in another nation’s internal affairs. And regulations must be rescinded to permit free markets to regulate themselves. It will require economic understanding, statesmanship and perhaps a few years to fully achieve all these objectives. But given that the purchasing power of the dollar will have already depreciated substantially, the costs of welfare, such as state pensions and unemployment benefits, will have already degenerated in real terms. Furthermore, the population will be staring into an economic and monetary abyss, reducing their opposition to substantial cuts in state spending. Only in these circumstances will it be possible to take the necessary action, and the opportunity will be there. An initial target of reducing Federal government spending to under 20% of GDP and cutting taxes accordingly should be followed by a target of less than 15% of GDP in due course. Banking reform Following extensive debate between the currency and banking schools, England’s Bank Charter Act of 1844 was the watershed that validated bank credit cycles. The destabilising effect of these cycles led to Walter Bagehot’s concept of the role of The Bank of England being the lender of last resort, the excuse for central banks in the future to increase their powers of intervention. By the time of the 1844 Act, banking law and double entry bookkeeping had established the method of credit creation, which is different from that which is commonly understood. A bank commences the expansion of bank credit by making a loan to a customer, which appears on its balance sheet as an asset. At the same time, double entry bookkeeping demands a contra entry, which is achieved by the bank crediting the customer with a matching deposit, which continues to balance as the loan is drawn down. The bank’s balance sheet has expanded without its own capital being involved. The expansion of credit is monetary inflation, which eventually feeds through to rising prices, leading to increasing interest rates. Economic calculations made earlier in the credit cycle begin to go awry, and bankers eventually become cautious, contracting their balance sheets mindful of the gearing ratio between their equity and total liabilities. Alternatively, carried away by the apparent improvement in trading conditions, banks speculate in areas where they lack expertise or became overexposed and lack an exit. These were the respective reasons that Overend Gurney in 1866 and Barings in 1890 failed. Whatever the cause of their contraction, these cycles of bank credit lasted about a decade on average. A reformed gold coin standard must be complemented by the elimination of bank credit cycles. To eliminate it entirely would require banking to be segregated into two distinct functions, one to act as a custodian of deposits with ownership remaining with the depositor, and the other to act as an arranger of finance for fees or commission. This would eliminate bank credit entirely. The evolution of modern finance has led to the development of shadow banking, some of which has led to the creation of credit off-balance sheet by the banks or by unregulated entities. Measures should be taken to identify and end these practices. But given that shadow banking is the product of the interaction between the growth of fiat money and purely financial activities, shadow banking is likely to decline, or possibly even disappear with the end of fiat and the introduction of a gold standard. Furthermore, the speculative bubble in cryptocurrencies, whose rationale is purely to hedge against the relative expansion of fiat currencies, will lose the reason for their existence beyond the purely technical innovations, such as the blockchain, that they bring. The ending of these speculative activities generally will reduce even further the perceived need for bank credit expansion, particularly for those banks funding purely financial activities. Once the public and foreigners are confident that the dollar’s gold standard is firmly established it is likely that gold will flow back into the Exchange Stabilisation Fund, giving it yet more cover for future dollar redemptions and therefore credibility for the standard. The benefits and workings of a new gold standard With the dollar on a credible gold standard, there can be little doubt that other fiat currencies will develop similar monetary policies. The whole world works with the dollar as the international currency, even Russia whose energy earnings are paid to her in dollars, and China whose raw materials from abroad are sourced nearly entirely in dollars. The replacement of fiat dollars with dollar-denominated gold substitutes will change currency priorities for all other nations. They will confront the same issues that faced the European nations in the second half of the nineteenth century, when Britain with her empire dominated global trade. Not only was there a drift towards free trade (for example, the Cobden-Chevalier Trade Treaty between France and Britain in 1860) but the European nations adopted similar gold standards. If America establishes a credible gold standard, any nation not following suit is likely to see its currency collapse. Critics may say that instead of operating their own gold standards, other nations will simply operate dollar currency boards, throwing the burden on America to provide a global monetary standard. This would not be a problem, so long as the rules of 100% backing are followed by America. A country adopting a dollar standard for its own currency will have to acquire dollars, which it can only do for gold submitted to the Exchange Stabilisation Fund. By providing a simple solution to other national currency problems the ESF would therefore see substantial gold inflows, further securing its domestic and international currency position. The key is for the ESF to administer the new monetary rules, enshrined in law, to the letter. Once the new gold standard is fully established, demand for circulating dollars will be set by markets and can be met by the ESF issuing dollars only on a 100% gold backed basis. Imports must be paid for in gold-backed dollars, and because monetary discipline will force government deficits to become a thing of the past, trade deficits will tend to be as well. Changes to gold’s domestic purchasing power might be expected through changes in the savings rate, being the allocation between consumption and deferred consumption. Variations in the savings rates may be expected to drive price differentials between nations, but this would be an error. This is because a rise in domestic savings will tend to reduce domestic prices and increase exports, leading to an importation of gold. But the extra gold or gold-backed dollars in circulation from an export surplus will have a contrary effect, supporting prices so that there would be little change. By way of contrast, a fall in the savings rate would be expected to lead to a tendency for domestic prices to rise and therefore to an increase in imports, and a corresponding outflow of gold. But the outflow of gold will then tend to act to reduce domestic prices, thus stabilising the effects of increased domestic consumption. In terms of cross-border trade, the benefit of a gold standard and its associated rules is to eliminate trade imbalances and price differentials as a cause of economic disruption, depoliticising global trade and promoting overall price stability. The peoples of individual nations can therefore set their savings preferences without affecting the general price level. It permits producers to make business calculations with a high degree of certainty of output prices, not only for domestic markets, but international ones as well. Gold supply factors Unlike proposed distributed ledger cryptocurrencies acting as the future form of money, the merits of a working gold standard are found in its flexibility. The growth of the amount of above-ground gold has tended to match the increase in the world’s population over time. But not all gold is held for monetary use, with more than half of it being estimated to be in jewellery, and a smaller amount allocated to industrial use. But much of the gold jewellery is quasi-monetary, being regarded as a reserve store of monetary value particularly among the populous Asian nations. There is, therefore, a flexible stock of non-monetary gold available through market mechanisms to support a global monetary standard. The difference between a gold or gold exchange standard and fiat currencies is that the allocation of gold between its uses is determined by people through markets, and not by governments and their monetary policies. This means that the course of prices both generally and for individual products are set only by supply and demand. Price stability is the outcome, with competition, improved production methods and technology tending to reduce prices over time and rising living standards for all. This is the background which encourages savers to put aside some of their earnings, knowing that their savings’ purchasing power will be maintained, and even likely to increase over time. For these savers, financial asset values will no longer be driven by excessive quantities of fiat currency. With the infinite feed of fiat currency removed, outright speculation will become a thing of the past, replaced by genuine risk assessments of individual bond issuers and of equity participations. The expansion of fiat currency will no longer be available as the principal fuel driving financial asset values. It will be a different monetary environment, where capital will be scarce and therefore valued. Capital will be less wasted on spurious projects. It will be the basis for recovering economic progress, so sadly lost at an increasing pace since the dollar became purely a fiat currency. It is apt to end by quoting von Mises’ concluding paragraph to his 1952 addition on currency reform in his The Theory of Money and Credit, the inspiration for this article: “Cynics dispose of the advocacy of a restitution of the gold standard by calling it utopian. Yet we have only the choice between two utopias: the utopia of the market economy, not paralysed by government sabotage on the one hand, and the utopia of totalitarian all-round planning on the other hand. The choice of the first alternative implies the decision in favour of the gold standard.” Tyler Durden Sat, 11/20/2021 - 08:10.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 20th, 2021