New York City Snow Drought Might End Tomorrow

Powerful shockwaves from a nuclear explosion may prove deadly, in addition to the blinding light and scorching heat, according to a new study. Sturdy concrete buildings far enough away from the nuclear blast are your best bet for survival beyond an underground bunker.Mirifada / Getty Images Scientists simulated a nuclear explosion about 37 times more powerful than Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The simulation helped them identify safe and unsafe indoor spots to shelter during a nuclear attack. This is the first study that shows the impact that nuclear shockwaves could have on humans indoors. If a nuclear bomb were dropped in your city tomorrow, would you know where to take cover? Nuclear war is a terrifying thought, but for a team of researchers at the University of Nicosia in Cyprus, it's top of mind.In a recent study, the researchers calculated how the blast from a nuclear explosion could affect people sheltering indoors, and found that even if you're at a safe distance from the explosion to survive the blast, you may still be in immediate peril."It is important to understand the impact on humans indoors to provide recommendations for protecting people and assets," said co-author Dimitri Drikakis. "For example, we can design structures that offer more protection."Avoid hallways and doors. Seek out corners of windowless rooms.An illustration of the shockwave of a 750-kt nuclear bomb 10 seconds after detonation. The wave has already traveled 2.8 miles (4.6 km).I. Kokkinakis and D. Drikakis, University of Nicosia, CyprusWhen a nuclear bomb detonates, it generates not only radiation in the form of a bright, blinding light and scorching heat, but also powerful shockwaves that can travel for tens of miles.It's these shockwaves that are potentially lethal for people at a safe enough distance from the fireball.The team simulated a nuclear explosion from a 750-kiloton atomic bomb. For reference, the bombs the US dropped at Hiroshima was 15 kilotons and at Nagasaki was 25 kilotons. So, on average, that's about 37 times smaller than the bomb in the researchers' simulation.A warhead of this magnitude would likely obliterate everything within 2.5 miles, but people beyond that radius may stand a chance if they're sheltering in the right location of a sturdy structure.Where that right location is, however, is where the researchers' results get interesting."The explosion was simulated using high-resolution and high-order computational fluid dynamics," based on three decades of experiments and theory, Drikakis told Insider.Using these models, they computed how the shockwave would move through buildings — including rooms, walls, corners, doors, corridors, windows, and doorways — at distances of 2.5 miles to 30 miles from the detonation site.Illustration of how the shockwave would move through a room indoors with narrow corridors increasing the speed and pressure.I. Kokkinakis and D. Drikakis, University of Nicosia, CyprusThey reported that narrow pockets inside buildings like doorways and hallways could act like a windtunnel, accelerating the shockwave to dangerous pressures of up to 18 times a human's body weight — easily enough to crush bones."The most dangerous critical indoor locations to avoid are the windows, the corridors, and the doors," said co-author Ioannis William Kokkinakis.The best location is in the half of the building farthest from the blast, in a room with no windows. But, "even in the front room facing the explosion, one can be safe from the high airspeeds if positioned at the corners of the wall facing the blast," Kokkinakis told Insider.It's also worth noting that the building itself is important. You don't want to take cover in a log cabin, for example."As the paper noted, if you're too close to the blast there's not much that can be done. However, at a distance building structures particularly stone or concrete or other stout, noncombustible materials can provide some degree of protection from the blast," said Kathryn Higley, a professor of radiation biology at Oregon State University who was not involved in the study.Preparing for an uncertain futureA Russian attack on Ukraine with drones.ReutersThe researchers said they modeled the detonation of a 750-kiloton bomb after Russia's Sarmat, an ICBM the Kremlin test-fired last April.Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns that we may be inching closer to nuclear war, and one of their prime motivations for the study was "the growing rhetoric about the use of nuclear weapons," Drikakis said."A nuclear war is a serious matter that will lead to widespread destruction. For several decades, the international community has considered that such a possibility will not arise. However, the rhetoric around the globe has changed," Drikakis said.The authors believe these findings could help nuclear safety experts devise better strategies to mitigate the damage from atomic explosions and radiation leaks. They hope the results from the study might also guide the development of nuclear-blast-proof buildings in the future."The wide-scale implication of this research is that it can add to the understanding of how to best protect yourself in the event of a nuclear detonation," Higley said.Never mind the nuclear fallout and apocalyptic lifestyle you may face after the fact. Surviving that is a different sort of study, entirely.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

At least 18 Republicans have shown they're interested in the 2024 presidential nomination, even though Trump has already declared he's running. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy are the only Republicans who have made a '24 run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to DeSantis, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are the only Republicans so far who have formally announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. December would be a "frustrating month" for political watchers because "no one is going to move that much," said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large, much like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 18 people who have or could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run:Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as the leader of a younger generation that could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Tech entrepreneur Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences.Fox NewsRamaswamy, 37, made a run official on February 22. Ramaswamy is an Indian-American tech entrepreneur who co-founded Strive Asset Management and serves as its executive chairman. He also founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences."We're in the midst of a national identity crisis. Faith, patriotism & family are disappearing. We embrace one secular religion after another — from wokeism to climatism — to satisfy our deeper need for meaning," he said in a video announcing his campaign. "Yet we cannot even answer what it means to be an American." —Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) February 22, 2023 Ramaswamy wrote "Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam," and "Nation of Victims: Identity Politics, the Death of Merit, and the Path Back to Excellence."The New Yorker  nicknamed Ramaswamy the "CEO of Anti-Woke Inc." for his stance against environmental, social, and governance investing. In February he delivered a speech about ESG at Trump National Doral, near Miami, before the exclusive and influential Council for National Policy at Trump Doral, where DeSantis was also a key speaker. Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.This year, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 44, has spent much of the last year focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He's the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and will be retiring from his seat at the end of this Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."In a move that could be signaling he's planning on doing just that, Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis is also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. DeSantis has refused to punch back at Trump publicly, instead blaming the media and saying, "When you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire."South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Asked by Insider about his intentions of formally jumping into the 2024 presidential race, Hawley laughed out loud for a few seconds. "I hope to run for reelection to the Senate in 2024. If the people of Missouri will have me," he said. Nowhere in there did Hawley say "no." Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on "supporter acquisition" and "audience building." And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in. As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in January, he told KARK.As governor for the last eight years, he has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC.Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run."It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. But Suarez said Trump also has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

San Francisco Leaders Invite Sex & Drug Tourism Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack, A progressive San Francisco politician is proposing that California legalize sex work. Though Supervisor Hillary Ronen’s proposal is just a resolution, not a mandate, it’s part of a continuing trend in the city and state of liberalization and decriminalization of prostitution.  “I don’t think this is going to happen tomorrow,” Ronen told a journalist. But, she said to another, “I do feel that society’s acceptance and (ability) to get away from the morality issues is growing.”  But if California and San Francisco legalize prostitution, it will likely exacerbate sex trafficking, including of minors, say experts.  “If we do that, this gives total leeway to the traffickers to exploit minors,” said Elizabeth Quiroz, who was sex trafficked in San Francisco. “If you legalize it, you increase demand and so you have to increase supply.” Already, sex trafficking has increased two- to threefold since last June, when Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation by San Francisco State Senator Scott Wiener that removed the criminal prohibition on loitering with the intent to solicit prostitution. Investigators with Special Operations Finding Kids, who rescued a 14-year-old from her pimp in San Francisco last week, say that the trafficking of minors had been increasing alongside the decrease of police over the last two to three years.  Defenders of legalizing prostitution point to European cities like Berlin as a model. In 2002, Germany defined prostitution as a profession and gave “sex workers” the right to health care, a pension, and unemployment benefits. Arrests for exploiting prostitutes declined from 1,365 to 45 between 2000 and 2014. “The law governing sex trafficking was not modified,” notes an analyst, “yet there were less than half as many trafficking cases in 2014 than in 2000…. The decline may mean that legalization reduced the involvement of bad actors.” But sex trafficking increased in Germany upon legalization, according to one quantitative study of 150 countries, a correlation that holds for countries across the globe that legalize prostitution. A police detective responsible for investigating and prosecuting human trafficking in Germany said in 2020 that for two decades, there had been a degradation of conditions for prostitutes and a reduction in the state’s ability or willingness to prosecute organized crime and abuse, resulting directly from legalization. Even the analyst quoted above, who is sympathetic to the German model, acknowledged, “Many of the madams [in Germany] are connected to organized crime networks based outside of Belgium, and they exercise tight control over the African or Eastern European women working for them.” In 2016, an Eastern European woman who was being sexually trafficked in Hamburg jumped out of a third-story window to escape. “The German system has effectively legalized rape, so long as it’s done to a prostituted woman,” a sex trade survivor told journalist Julie Bindel.  Legalization neither ends trafficking nor encourages the reporting of it to the police. One study showed that sex customers in Germany, where prostitution is fully legal, reported witnessing sex trafficking more than their counterparts in the UK, Scotland, and the United States, where prostitution is fully or partly illegal, and reporting it to authorities less.  The same study showed that German sex customers were more likely than their counterparts in other countries to regard prostitutes as “unrapeable,” meaning that johns can do whatever they want to prostitutes without their consent.  Have things gone better in Nevada where prostitution is legal? They have not. “Even in Nevada, they have panic buttons,” said Marjorie Saylor, a survivor of sex trafficking. But, she said, “By the time you hit them, you can be choked out, or dead.” Brenda Sandquist, an advocate for trafficking victims in Nevada, said that women in the state’s legal brothels are frequently beaten and raped in their rooms and then forced back to work. When these crimes are reported, the police often won’t do anything since the brothels are legal. Pimps also use Nevada’s brothels as legal shields; criminal trafficking rings in California will sometimes stash trafficked girls in them to keep them out of the reach of law enforcement. And the abuses that come from legalized prostitution could be far worse in San Francisco, where the police department is short 540 officers, and open air drug dealing is widespread. The proposal to legalize prostitution in San Francisco comes on the heels of proposals to put supervised drug sites in neighborhoods around the city and allow marijuana cafés to attract tourists.  Mayor London Breed last month announced she was working with Ronen, the sponsor of the prostitution legalization resolution, to allow city contractors to create centers for people to use hard drugs like heroin, fentanyl, and meth like they do in Amsterdam.  And San Francisco State Assemblymember Matt Haney earlier this month proposed marijuana coffee shops, also modeled on what Amsterdam does. “Let's support our small businesses, tourism and hospitality sectors,” he tweeted, “and our legal cannabis small businesses.” His proposal has the support of another supervisor, Rafael Mandelman. But as San Francisco politicians emulate Amsterdam, Amsterdam has restricted hours when bars, pot shops and brothels are open. Just a few days after Haney made his proposal, Amsterdam city authorities announced a ban on smoking cannabis in the city’s red light district to reduce crime and violence. . Why is that? Why are San Francisco city leaders seeking to do more of what has plainly failed? Why is it going in the opposite direction of Europe? Money, Sex, And Religion Downtown San Francisco is eerily empty as the city’s population has shrunk and workers have stayed away from the office. The immediate reason Supervisor Ronen is seeking to legalize prostitution and create a red-light district is that four blocks in her district have become what she says is a “cruising zone” for johns seeking prostitutes, and neighbors are fed up. “They feel like they don’t get the same level of attention as other city residents,” said Kanishka Cheng of the good government group Together SF.  Ronen agrees. “What’s happening right now on Capp Street is it’s become more brazen and bigger than we’ve ever seen it before,” she said.  But in seeking legalization and a red-light district, Ronen is doubling down on the liberalization approach that caused the increase in streetwalking since last June.  Why won’t Ronen and progressives shut down sex trafficking? Because doing so would require using the police and the courts, which Ronen and her colleagues say is racist and causes more harm than good. ... Subscribers can read more here... Tyler Durden Fri, 02/17/2023 - 22:20.....»»

At least 17 Republicans have shown they're interested in the 2024 presidential nomination, even though Trump has already declared he's running. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are the only Republicans who have made a '24 run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to DeSantis, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley are the only Republicans so far who have announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. December would be a "frustrating month" for political watchers because "no one is going to move that much," said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large, much like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 17 people who could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run:Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as the leader of a younger generation that could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.This year, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 44, has spent much of the last year focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He's the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and will be retiring from his seat at the end of this Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."In a move that could be signaling he's planning on doing just that, Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis is also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. DeSantis has refused to punch back at Trump publicly, instead blaming the media and saying, "When you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire."South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Asked by Insider about his intentions of formally jumping into the 2024 presidential race, Hawley laughed out loud for a few seconds. "I hope to run for reelection to the Senate in 2024. If the people of Missouri will have me," he said. Nowhere in there did Hawley say "no." Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on "supporter acquisition" and "audience building." And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in. As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in January, he told KARK.As governor for the last eight years, he has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC.Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run."It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. But Suarez said Trump also has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Futures Rebound, Trade Near Session Highs Amid Global UFO Hullaballoon US index futures reversed an earlier drop and traded near session highs as traders braced for inflation data that will may support the Fed’s commitment to further policy tightening (or it may not), and as the world was transfixed by a global UFO hullaballoo(n). S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% at 8:00am ET while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% after the underlying index suffered its first weekly loss of 2023. European stocks rose to trade near session highs, lifted by construction, industrial goods and consumer stocks while energy and real estate underperformed. The dollar pushed higher, Treasuries were little changed and oil slipped after Friday’s jump; bitcoin slumped. In premarket trading, Sorrento Therapeutics slumped after the drug developer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Texas.  Shares of major US tech and internet companies rose premarket, meanwhile Evercore ISI upgraded Zillow Group to outperform from in line. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Advance Auto Parts Inc. is cut to neutral from buy at Roth, with the broker saying it can no longer dismiss the company’s “serial under-performance” against peers, adding its market share is “unwinding quickly.” Shares decline 0.9%. BigBear.ai and SoundHound AI (SOUN lead fellow artificial intelligence-related stocks higher. This rebound comes after several stocks faltered on Friday as caution toward AI-related shares set in.  Bigbear.ai gains 3.7%. SoundHound AI is up 2.5bbai%. Capri Holdings is downgraded to market perform from outperform at Cowen, with the broker saying it has concerns about the company’s wholesale channel and the Michael Kors brand. Shares decline 0.8%. Coinbase could ultimately benefit over the long term from the increased scrutiny that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is putting on the staking of digital assets, according to Piper Sandler. Coinbase drops 1.7%. Gracell Biotechnologies climbs 1.4% after the company says the Center for Drug Evaluation of China’s National Medical Products Administration has cleared Gracell’s Investigational New Drug application for GC012F, an autologous CAR-T therapeutic candidate, for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Immunovant Inc. gains 3.1% after Guggenheim upgraded it to buy from neutral, with analyst Yatin Suneja optimistic for its new drug candidate IMVT-1402. Microsoft shares are up 1.4% with analysts optimistic about the software company’s long-term growth potential. Ocular Therapeutix Inc. rises 14% after the company announced 10-month interim data from an early-stage study of its experimental treatment for wet age-related macular degeneration. Proto Labs Inc.shares are up 2.5% after Benchmark Co upgraded the 3D printing company to buy from hold. Zillow Group Inc. shares are up 4.4% after Evercore ISI upgraded the online real estate platform to outperform from in line. Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) sinks 2.1% after the shipping company was cut to underweight from equal- weight at Barclays, which anticipates a global shipping down- cycle in 2023-2024 due to “significant oversupply” across the industry. Shares of China’s cross-border brokerage Futu (FUTU US) falls 0.5% in US premarket trading after Hong Kong-based Bright Smart Securities says it will suspend accounts held by mainland Chinese clients starting Feb. 16. Signa Sports United NV (SSU US) is downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies, with the broker predicting an “uphill climb” for the online sports retailer due to the challenging macroeconomic backdrop. On Sunday, the US downed yet another flying object, the fourth so far - over Michigan yesterday, following those over northern Canada, Alaska and off the South Carolina coast - after deciding to be more cautious. The Pentagon doesn’t yet know what the most recent objects are and isn’t ruling out anything at this point. Meanwhile, China said US balloons have flown over its airspace more than 10 times since 2022. The January CPI report on Tuesday is expected to show an increase of 0.5% from a month earlier, spurred in part by higher gasoline costs. That would mark the biggest gain in three months. Excluding fuels and foods, so-called core prices — which better reflect underlying inflation — are seen rising 0.4% for a second month. The BLS changed how CPI is calculated. They changed some weightings which had the effect of showing that less progress was made on inflation than previously thought. Amid the new data, investors will be reassessing how high US interest rates will rise this year, with inflation and jobs data likely to still come in hot later this week. That has fueled bets for the Fed rate to peak at 5.2% in July, up from less than 5% a month ago. “We are certainly continuing to be very cautious on equities,” Nannette Hechler-Fayd’Herbe, chief investment officer at Credit Suisse International Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We find at the moment there is a disconnect in valuations versus where interest rates by the Fed — but also by other central banks — are going to be for the remainder of the year.” The rally in US equities lost steam last week over concerns that the Fed will stick to its hawkish resolve amid a strong labor market and relatively elevated inflation. Traders will parse this week’s data for clues on the path of monetary policy and the impact it could have on the US economy. “We’re looking for a correction over the next few months to take us back down to the lower 3,000s area in the S&P 500,” Saed Abukarsh, chief portfolio manager at Ark Capital Management Dubai Ltd., told Bloomberg Television. “The incentive for the Fed to be hawkish is still there. There is no incentive for them to be less hawkish.” Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's downbeat in house permabear argued that US stocks are ripe for a selloff after prematurely pricing in a pause in Fed rate hikes. “While the recent move higher in front-end rates is supportive of the notion that the Fed may remain restrictive for longer than appreciated, the equity market is refusing to accept this reality,” Michael Wilson wrote in a note (more shortly). Wilson — the top-ranked strategist in last year’s Institutional Investor survey — expects deteriorating fundamentals, along with Fed hikes that are coming at the same time as an earnings recession, to drive equities to an ultimate low this spring. “Price is about as disconnected from reality as it’s been during this bear market,” the strategists said. European stocks rose as the EU Commission lifts its growth forecast for the euro-area in 2023 while lowering estimates for inflation. The Stoxx 600 trade higher by 0.6%, rising to session highs, with outperformance seen in the industrial, construction and consumer product sectors. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: Kape Technologies shares rise as much as 13%, to 292.5p, and trade above the 285p offer made by majority holder Teddy Sagi to buy the remaining shares in the UK software company Smiths shares rise as much as 2.6% in early trading, Weir gains as much as 2.5% and Epiroc rises as much as 3.4%, after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on 10 European capital goods stocks Credit Suisse shares fall as much as 3.2%, resuming their slide following a Friday bounce after Vontobel trims its price target on the Swiss lender and Kepler Chevreux downgraded its recommendation to reduce from hold. The latter also cut its price target to a level implying a 26% fall from the last price Castellum falls as much as 11%, the most since March 2020, before paring losses after the Swedish real estate group announced a SEK10 billion ($955 million) rights offering Nel shares fall as much as 4%, as Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the electrolyzer firm to neutral following recent outperformance, though the broker remains bullish on the clean hydrogen outlook Network International shares fall as much as 4.1% on Monday, after Barclays downgraded the payment firm to equal-weight from overweight, citing the sharp slowdown in the firm’s card issuing business in the fourth quarter Asian stocks fell, heading to their lowest level in about a month, as investors awaited key inflation data from the world’s largest economy.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.2%, extending losses after a two-week rout. Tech stocks led the slump with TSMC and Tokyo Electron dragging the gauge the most. Benchmarks in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore slid while those in Hong Kong fluctuated.  Asian stocks have declined over the past two weeks as strong US jobs data and hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials dashed hopes of an interest-rate pivot. Investors are reassessing how high US rates will rise this year, with inflation and jobs data likely to still come in hot later this week. “Part of the reason for the overall decline goes to a lack of economic reports to offset the chorus of central bankers chanting ‘higher for longer,’” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, adding that investor nervousness may decrease after the release of US inflation figures due Tuesday.  China’s defense stocks gained after domestic news outlet The Paper reported that the nation is getting ready to take down an unidentified object flying over waters near the port city of Qingdao. Meanwhile, equities in Japan underperformed amid expectations that Kazuo Ueda, who is expected to be nominated as Japan’s central bank governor, will adopt faster policy normalization Japanese stocks fell as investors turned cautious ahead of US inflation data due Tuesday. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting the outcome of the official BOJ governor nomination, with the market weighing Kazuo Ueda’s potential policy stance.  The Topix Index fell 0.5% to 1,977.67 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.9% to 27,427.32. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.9%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 702 rose and 1,356 fell, while 105 were unchanged. “Stocks are down partly to reflect the adjustment in US tech stocks last week and the market seems to still be digesting information regarding the potential new BOJ chief,” said Takeru Ogihara, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “Regardless of who the new governor is, BOJ seems to be moving towards monetary policy normalization, which would lead the interest rate and bank stocks to rise.” Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to 7,417.80 as investors assess earnings and brace for a critical US inflation report due this week. Consumer discretionary shares led sector losses, dragged lower by Star Entertainment after the casino operator said its Sydney trading has been hit by operating restrictions and competition from Crown. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.9% to 12,075.18 India stocks also declined for a second day ahead of the release of consumer-price data later on Monday which came in hotter than expected (6.52% vs exp. 6.50% and up sharply from 5.72% for December). India’s central bank remains watchful of inflation and is open to using monetary policy action to tame price pressures further.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.4% to 60,431.84 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.5%. All but three of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector gauges traded lower, led by service industry stocks. Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2.5%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 11 rose and 18 fell, while 1 was unchanged. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.3% before reversing gains, with the greenback trading mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. The USD/JPY gained 0.9% to 132.60 as the Japanese yen underperforms its G-10 counterparts. The New Zealand dollar is the best performer, adding 0.4% versus the greenback. The euro was steady at $1.0677. Bunds and Italian bonds reversed opening losses as money markets pared ECB tightening wagers. The New Zealand dollar was the best performer and the yen was the worst. The Treasury curve twist-flattened very modestly. Data on Tuesday are expected to show US consumer price index for January increased 0.5% from a month earlier. The pound dipped against the dollar and the euro ahead of a busy week of UK data including jobs and inflation figures for January. Gilts inched lower The yen dropped as much as 1.1% 132.77 per dollar ahead of the nomination of a new BOJ governor and before the US inflation print Australian sovereign bonds slipped, following Treasuries amid mounting anxiety over how high the Federal Reserve will have to hike rates in its battle with inflation In rates, Treasuries were narrowly mixed with the curve flatter and long-end slightly richer on the day while front-end trades slightly cheaper vs Friday’s close. In Europe, gilts underperform with busy week of issuance lined-up. US 10-year yields little changed on the day at 3.735% with bunds and gilts underperforming by 1bp and 3bp in the sector; long-end outperformance on Treasury curve flattens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1.7bp and 2.5bp on the day. Bund futures are in the green while Gilts are slightly lower. According to Bloomberg, the dollar issuance slate is empty so far (so no rate lock trades); preliminary estimate suggests $25 billion in new issues this week with bulk of the deals expected Monday before Tuesday’s inflation data. US session light for risk events, with price action relatively calm ahead of Tuesday’s inflation data. In commodities, crude futures reversed an earlier decline with WTI now flat just shy of $80, after sliding down almost 2% lower. Spot gold falls roughly 0.3% to trade near $1,859. In cryptos, stablecoin issuer Paxos has been directed to stop minting Binance Coin (BUSD) by the US SEC; following on from WSJ reporting over the weekend that US SEC intends to sue stablecoin issuer Paxos, which is behind the Pax Dollar (USDP) and Binance USD (BUSD) tokens, over the latter stablecoin. India’s Finance Minister said the G20 is exploring collectively regulating cryptocurrencies, according to Reuters. There is no macro on today's calendar; Bowman is the only Fed speaker at 8am ET this morning Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,102.50 MXAP down 0.8% to 165.06 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 539.31 Nikkei down 0.9% to 27,427.32 Topix down 0.5% to 1,977.67 Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 21,164.42 Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,284.16 Sensex down 0.4% to 60,459.17 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,417.75 Kospi down 0.7% to 2,452.70 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 459.84 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.36% Euro little changed at $1.0672 Brent Futures down 1.4% to $85.17/bbl Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,857.17 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.12% to 103.76 Top Overnight News The BOJ's expected next governor Kazuo Ueda likely won't rush to overhaul ultra-loose policy and will instead let economic data guide the exit timing, said Tetsuya Inoue, who was Ueda's staff secretary when he was a central bank board member. RTRS The euro-zone economy will fare better this year than previously feared as a mild winter and high levels of gas storage help to ease the energy crisis, and the labor market holds up, according to the European Commission. European Union officials in Brussels raised their forecast for growth this year, predicting a 0.9% expansion in the currency bloc, and said it would narrowly avoid a recession. They also cut their projection for consumer price growth, though it remains high at 5.6%. BBG Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said it could take Russia up to another two years to capture the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and up to three if Moscow decides to take land east of the Dnipro River. WSJ Russia lost 1140 troops on Friday, a new single-day record, bringing the total death toll to nearly 137K (and Russian casualties over the last two weeks are likely the highest of the war). Also, Russia is witnessing an historic exodus of its citizens, with 500K-1M people leaving the country since the Ukraine war began (a departure on par with the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union collapse in 1991). Insider / WA Po “No landing” scenario gains traction among economists, raising fears the Fed still has more work to do on rates before inflation is sustainably on a path to the 2% target. WSJ Americans with college degrees saw a 7.4% inflation-adjusted drop in income last year, the steepest fall since 2004 and one that erases nearly all pandemic-era gains. BBG Walmart tells suppliers "no more price hikes" as it begins worrying about the effects of inflation on its customers (Walmart can also see that input costs are falling, which means suppliers have less need for incremental price increases). RTRS Meta has delayed finalizing multiple teams’ budgets while it prepares a fresh round of job cuts (11k employees, 13% of workforce) as Mark Zuckerberg’s plan to contain costs in his “year of efficiency” causes disruption at the social media company. Also, AMZN has cut ~20% of the headcount at its Zappos subsidiary. FT / WSJ Ford is set to announce as soon as Monday it plans to build a $3.5 billion lithium iron phosphate battery plant in Michigan, sources told Reuters. Ford is expected to own and operate the plant with Chinese battery company China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) (300750.SZ) as a technology partner to help develop the batteries. RTRS Investors have pulled a net $31 billion from U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the past six weeks, according to Refinitiv Lipper data through Wednesday. That marks the longest streak of weekly net outflows since last summer and the most money pulled in aggregate from domestic equity funds to start a year since 2016. WSJ A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week mostly subdued as geopolitical tensions lingered after the US shot down a fourth flying object and with markets bracing for Tuesday's US CPI data, while the region also digested earnings releases and news that Japan's government is likely to nominate academic and former BoJ member Ueda to head the central bank. ASX 200 was lacklustre with earnings in focus and the Consumer Discretionary sector was pressured alongside a more than 20% drop in Star Entertainment shares after it flagged an impairment charge of up to AUD 1.6bln. Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants pondered over the future of the BoJ with the government likely to nominate Ueda as the next central bank chief after dovish continuation candidate and BoJ’s QE policy architect Amamiya was said to turn down the role. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong pressured early on by weakness in property and tech, while the mainland was kept afloat after China’s recent loans and aggregate financing data topped forecasts with New Yuan Loans at a record high for January. Top Asian News PBoC and CBIRC published rules on the risk classification of banks’ financial assets which will take effect on July 1st, with the tightened management regulations aimed at assessing banks’ credit risks more accurately, reflecting lenders’ real asset quality, according to Reuters. Japan's Upper House of Parliament is to hold confirmation hearings on the government's nominations for the BoJ Governor and Deputy Governors on February 27th, according to sources cited by Reuters. BoJ's expected next chief Ueda is likely to allow the data to guide the exit timing, according to Tetsuya Inoue who was Ueda's former staff secretary during his time as a BoJ board member, according to Reuters. China's Foreign Ministry says senior diplomat Wang Yi will visit France, Italy, Russia and Hungary this month and attend the Munich Security Conference. European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with fresh developments limited and the schedule relatively sparse ahead of Tuesday's key events. Sectors are predominantly in the green, featuring outperformance in Travel and Construction names while Energy and Real Estate lag on benchmark pricing and broker activity respectively. US futures are incrementally in the green with the NQ leading slightly though overall performance is contained as we look towards Tuesday's CPI with Fed's Bowman due beforehand. Turkey is reportedly considering extending its stock market closure, according to Bloomberg sources. Top European News UK PM Sunak has reportedly asked ministers and officials to draw up plans for rebuilding the UK's relations with the EU, according to Bloomberg. UK employers are expected to increase wages by the most since 2012 with median expectations for a 5% pay rise, while 55% of recruiters were planning to lift base or variable pay this year, according to a CIPD survey cited by Reuters. Germany’s CDU is set to win in the repeat election in Berlin with 28% of votes, while Chancellor Scholz’s SDP party received just 18% of votes in a blow for the party which has governed the city-state for 22 years, according to ZDF. Moody’s affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable on Friday. EU Commission Forecasts: EZ to avoid the prev. expected technical recession, 0.1% QQ growth in Q4-2022 and 0.00% QQ in Q1-2023. Click here for more detail. Ship traffic has Turkey's Bosphorus strait has been suspended amid salvage operations of a ship, according to Tribeca shipping agency. FX USD is bid though peers, ex-JPY, are generally fairly contained after Friday's DXY rebound and ahead of US Tier 1 data and Fed speak throughout the week. At best, the USD has been up to 103.84 with USD/JPY as high as 132.76 as we await confirmation of Ueda's nomination for the BoJ and after reports indicate he will be data-driven when deciding on the appropriate point to end ultra-accommodation. At the other end of the spectrum, NZD is the relative outperformer and holding above 0.6300 as it pares losses vs AUD with data due overnight for the region; AUD/USD holding near 0.6900. CHF saw some fleeting strength in wake of hot domestic CPI while both EUR and GBP were unreactive to respective Central Bank speakers; around 0.923, 1.067 and 1.204 vs USD respectively. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8151 vs exp. 6.8160 (prev. 6.7884) Central Banks ECB’s Visco said there is no question that the restriction of the euro area monetary stance must continue and reiterated the pace of any further rate hike will continue to be decided based on incoming data and their impact on the inflation outlook, according to Reuters. ECB's Centeno says they need to be open minded with data, via Bloomberg TV; inflation surprised the ECB to the downside. Smaller hikes would need mid-term (i.e. 2024/2025) inflation nearing 2%. Labour market is a positive surprise, no signs of second round effects re. wages. BoE's Haskel says "it is true that when we raise rates that is not good for investment. I absolutely accept that, and therefore we are potentially contributing to that very poor capital investment", according to an interview with Matthew Klein; would prefer to make policy with much more attention on the data flow over the next few months. Fixed Income EGBs have experienced a firm bounce with Bunds comfortably above 136.00 to a peak circa. 30 ticks above, with technicals and perhaps ECB speak factoring. Amidst this, Gilts are more contained as they struggle to convincingly eclipse 104.00 while USTs reside at the top-end of narrow 112.18 to 11224 intra-day parameters. As such, EGB yields are modestly softer while the US curve is flat to mixed pre-Bowman. Commodities WTI March and Brent April futures are softer and towards the bottom of intraday ranges as the complex takes a breather from last week’s gains. While today's commodity-related schedule is limited, we do have the Olso Energy Conference (14-16th Feb) and the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium (15th Feb) in the near term. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said OPEC remain committed to stabilising global oil prices and their latest forecast shows oil demand will exceed pandemic levels this year to reach nearly 102mln bpd, while oil demand is expected to reach 110mln bpd by 2025, according to Reuters. Azerbaijani oil shipments at Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal resumed after the recent earthquake, according to a (BP/ LN) representative cited by Reuters. IEA sees the power sector set for a tipping point on emissions in 2025 and for electricity demand to increase by an average 3% through to 2025 with more than 70% of the global electricity demand increase over the next 3 years to come from China, India and south-east Asia, according to FT. Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russia is looking to sell over 80% of its oil exports and 75% of its oil product exports to "friendly" nations in 2023; sees potential for increase of Russian natural gas exports to the APAC region. China's CNPC is reportedly close to sealing a long-term agreement to purchase LNG from QatarEnergy's north field expansion, via Reuters citing sources. Spot gold is slightly softer with a stronger USD factoring and pressuring the yellow metal to a test of Friday's USD 1852/oz trough at worst, while base metals are softer amid the tentative tone and USD. Geopolitics EU set to propose new Russia sanctions, potentially targeting tech exports used for military purposes, heavy vehicles and rubber, as well as dozens of listings, according to Bloomberg's Nardelli citing sources. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine but without preconditions and noted that any negotiations should take into account current realities on the field, according to TASS. Russia said it hit energy facilities in Ukraine on Friday, according to RIA. it was also reported that Russian troops took the village of Krasna Hora which is north of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to Reuters. Canada’s Defence Minister announced that a fighter jet shot down an object about 100 miles from the US-Canadian border which was a small cylindrical object and had posed a reasonable threat to civilian aviation, while the Defence Minister added it is not prudent to speculate on the origin of the object, according to Reuters. US military shot down a fourth flying object over Lake Huron in Michigan which was an octagonal structure with no discernible payload, while the US did not assess the latest object to be a military threat and was shot down due to its potential surveillance capabilities after it flew in proximity to sensitive military sites, according to Reuters. China spotted a mystery flying object over the waters near the coastal city of Rizhao in the Shandong province which authorities were preparing to shoot down, according to SCMP. China's Foreign Ministry says that since last year US high-altitude balloons flew over Chinese airspace without their permission on over 10 occasions. Taiwan has observed dozens of Chinese military balloon flights in its airspace in recent years, according to FT. UK is to launch a security review related to China's spy balloons, according to The Telegraph China is reportedly contemplating tripling its stockpile of nuclear warheads to 900 by 2035, according to sources cited by Japan Times. Crypto Stablecoin issuer Paxos has been directed to stop minting Binance Coin (BUSD) by the US SEC; following on from WSJ reporting over the weekend that US SEC intends to sue stablecoin issuer Paxos, which is behind the Pax Dollar (USDP) and Binance USD (BUSD) tokens, over the latter stablecoin. India’s Finance Minister said the G20 is exploring collectively regulating cryptocurrencies, according to Reuters. Binance and TRON reached an agreement in which Binance will reduce transaction fees on the Tron network with withdrawal frees returned to previous levels, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled Central Bank Speakers 08:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Banking Conference DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I was left alone with Maisie yesterday morning while the twins went to "Ninja Warriors" which is basically a venue aimed at making children as tired as they possibly can be to give their parents a rest later. However my wife came back more tired than the boys as she had to join in! Anyway I used the couple of hours to try to write a surprise Valentine's Day song from Maisie to her mum. However I did it slightly differently. I asked ChatGPT to come up with some song lyrics given a selection of information about the family. The results were fairly spectacular and although I didn't use it all, I used it a starting point and tweaked around it. I'm pretty sure AI will revolutionise the written word in the years ahead. So if you've forgotten a present for your loved one for tomorrow why not ask chatGPT to write a poem for and about them. What could be more romantic than letting a robot and algorithm work out the words to express your love! On the most romantic day of the year tomorrow, the pheromones in the financial community might be dictated by a pretty important US CPI print. Sadly chatGPT can't give us any guidance there. It only feels like yesterday that US inflation prints were seen as last year’s news given the recent falls. In addition, forecasts and breakevens suggested we were on a glide path to normality over the next few months and quarters. However that view has received a bit of a jolt in the last 10 days. First we had payrolls print which raised the prospect that core services ex-shelter could stay stronger for longer. Then we had lots of hawkish central bank speak that the market had previously ignored but was now slowly waking up to. Then Manheim suggested US used cars (+2.5% mom in January) climbed at their fastest rate for 14-months and finally we had US CPI revisions on Friday that have rewritten the last year of history and in turn reduced core inflation by around a tenth each month leading up to June and have increased it by an average of around a tenth in each month since August. As such the trend in core CPI hasn’t fallen as much as expected and we now haven’t seen any month less than +0.3% MoM. In addition 3m annualised core CPI ran at 4.3% in December rather than the 3.1% reported at the January 12th release. So although year on year hasn’t changed the momentum is notably different. This feeds into work done by our economists over the last few weeks suggesting that inflation is going to be edging up again before it falls. See their chart book “The rise before the fall” (link here) for more on this. For tomorrow’s reading, higher gas prices should boost headline MoM CPI (+0.42% DB forecast, consensus +0.5%). Last month this printed at -0.1% but got revised up to +0.1% on Friday. Core MoM should be stable (DB +0.36% vs. +0.4% consensus) but only because Friday’s revisions saw it edge up from 0.3% to 0.4% last month. As strong prints from this time last year edge out of the data, the YoY rates should fall around two tenths each to 6.2% and 5.5% (consensus unchanged at 5.7%), respectively. If you want to get more into the weeds see DB’s Justin Weidner’s preview here. Staying with inflation, US PPI on Thursday is also important as the medical services component feeds directly into the equivalent within the core PCE number (out Feb 24th). Elsewhere in the US we have leading indicators (LEI) on Friday which are expected to pickup, but stay in negative territory in January after an awful print for December. January retail sales on Wednesday is also expected to bounce back after a poor end to the year. There are also a couple of regional factory surveys (NY on Weds and Philli Thurs) which along with industrial production (Weds) are also all expected to bounce to varying degrees. Thursday will also see the usual jobless claims alongside housing starts and building permits (1.350 vs. 1.337k). Fed speakers will have plenty of opportunity to address the data throughout the week, with at least ten appearances scheduled so far. There are a number of appearances from ECB officials as well. See the highlights in the day by day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Shifting to Europe, UK CPI (Weds) and labour market data (tomorrow) will be in focus following the recent more dovish BoE meeting. This week's CPI will also be calculated with new weights so our UK economists put out a note on the potential impact of the changes here. Turning to earnings now, with nearly 350 of the S&P 500 members having reported, there will still be a few notable corporates releasing results but the reality is that we are past the biggest potential market movers for the macro world. Asian equity markets are starting an important week on the back foot. The Nikkei (-0.98%) is leading losses with the KOSPI (-0.91%) and Hang Seng (-0.47%) losing ground. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are bucking the regional trend with the CSI (+0.62%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.53%) seeing decent gains. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a negative start with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.42%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.49%) trading lower following a disappointing week on Wall Street. In FX markets, the Japanese yen (-0.57%) continues to remain volatile, trading at 132.11 to the dollar ahead of the Japanese government’s official nomination on the new BOJ Governor scheduled tomorrow. On the oil front, prices are lower this morning with Brent futures (-1.03%) trading at $85.50/bbl and WTI (-1.17%) at $78.79/bbl after a strong past week. Looking back on that week now, markets moved to price in more aggressive rate hikes from both the Fed and the ECB than had previously been expected. In the US, the fed futures market ended the week pricing a 5.188% rate for July meeting, marking the highest close of this cycle so far. That was an increase of +18.0bps on the week and +4.5bps on Friday. The prospect of more rate hikes reverberated in fixed income markets, with 10yr Treasuries yields up +7.4bps on Friday and +20.7bps over the week, reaching their highest levels since the end of December. Over in Europe, overnight index swaps similarly moved to price in a higher terminal rate for the ECB at the July meeting, increasing by +18.4bps over the week (+5.8bps on Friday) to 3.501%, the highest level since the end of December. Fixed income markets extended their hawkish shift, with 2yr German bund yields jumping to their highest since 2008, up +7.2bps on Friday. This added to earlier increases, with 2yr bunds up +21.4bps over the week. 10yr bunds also fell back, as yields jumped +17.1bps over the week (+6.1bps on Friday). Over in equity markets, last week was the worst of 2023 so far following a very strong start to the year. The S&P 500 was down -1.11% over the week (-0.22% on Friday), its largest decline in weekly terms since mid-December. The NASDAQ also saw its largest weekly loss since December, falling back -2.41% (-0.61% on Friday). The STOXX 600 also fell back, down -0.63% (-0.96% on Friday). In other news from Friday, it was widely reported that Kazuo Ueda was set to be appointed as the BoJ's next governor. Ueda is an academic economist and former policy board member of the BoJ. According to our Japanese economists (link), Ueda is not considered to be hawkish and he would be wary of lifting monetary easing too early. However, foreign exchange markets saw Ueda in a more hawkish light, with the Yen reacting positively to the news, rallying + 1.33% against the US Dollar following the news, before reversing over the course of the day. The Nikkei closed up +0.59% on the week (+0.31% on Friday) In other data releases on Friday, we had a downward surprise for UK GDP growth for December, which printed at -0.5% month-on-month (vs -0.3% expected). However, a technical recession (2 consecutive quarterly contractions) was just avoided with zero growth in Q4 as a whole, following a -0.2% contraction in Q2. Against this backdrop, the FTSE 100 was down -0.36% on Friday and fell back -0.24% on the week. Over in commodities, oil prices saw further gains on Friday following the news that Russia would be cutting output from next month. WTI was up +8.63% for the week (+2.13% on Friday) to $79.72/bbl, and Brent crude rose up +8.07% (+2.24% on Friday) to $86.39/bbl. European natural gas futures fell -6.81% over the week (+2.30% on Friday). Tyler Durden Mon, 02/13/2023 - 08:11.....»»

"Not A Sustainable Model": AZ Hospital 'On Brink Of Collapse' After Spending $20 Million On Migrants A hospital in Yuma, Arizona is reportedly on the brink of collapse after providing $20 million in care for what has become a constant stream of illegal migrants. Dr. Robert Transchel, president and CEO of Yuma, Arizona's Regional Medical Center, told Fox News that the problem is not new. "It's been a long journey," he said. "We've been at this for well over a year now. We tracked our uncompensated care for a period of over six months, and we calculated that we've provided over $20 million in uncompensated care to the migrants crossing the border." According to Transchel, despite approaching state officials and Department of Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas for aid, neither the city, state, or the federal government have stepped up to help to pay for the migrant care. "We just don't have a payer source. Everybody is sympathetic, and everybody lends a listening ear, but nobody has a solution," he told "Fox & Friends Weekend." "We've provided $20 million in care to the migrants that are crossing the border and we just don't have a payer source for those individuals. It's not a sustainable model to have these continued rising expenses without a revenue source to offset that." Transchel said the hospital will keep functioning, adding that most hospitals operate on a "very thin margin."  "We're fine today, and we'll be fine tomorrow. The problem is, if this continues, it's gonna build up, and it's gonna continue to be a problem." He added that the $20 million care cost fails to encompass the full scope of losses the facility has suffered since migrant patients became a problem, pointing to flight costs for some, as well as expenses associated with increased staffing. -Fox News "The infrastructure that we've had to add is uncompensated as well," he added. Tyler Durden Wed, 02/08/2023 - 20:10.....»»

Futures, Global Stocks Slide, Dollar Jumps On Rising US-China Tensions, Fed Outlook The post-payrolls slump in US stocks and global markets was set to deepen on Monday amid jitters around the Fed's policy outlook and an escalation of tensions between Washington and Beijing. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.2% as of 745 a.m. ET while S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, both well off session lows, as investors watched developments between the US and China over a suspected spy balloon, with pressure mounting on President Joe Biden to retaliate with new export controls on sensitive technology, setting back a recent improvement in US-China relations. Japanese stocks climbed and the yen weakened after the Nikkei reported that the government had approached Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya about succeeding Haruhiko Kuroda as head of the central bank. While the Japanese government refuted the report, investors assume a greater likelihood of the current ultra-easy monetary policy enduring if one of its architects succeeds Kuroda. The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped more than 1% after closing Friday in a bull market, with the technology and real estate sectors leading the retreat. 10Y TSY yields jumped as high as 3.60% while the dollar climbed for a third day, hitting a 4 week high after a gauge of its strength rose more than 1% Friday, oil drifted modestly higher after a massive earthquake in Turkey halted oil pipeline flows to the Ceyhan export terminal. US-listed Chinese stocks were on track to fall for a third session, after Washington’s move to shoot down an alleged surveillance balloon from China spurred new tensions between the two countries. The US sent divers to salvage what they believe is spy equipment from the Chinese balloon off the coast of South Carolina, with pressure mounting on President Joe Biden to hit back at Beijing with new export control measures. Among the biggest premarket movers, Newmont Mining dropped after it offered to buy Australia’s Newcrest Mining in a $17 billion deal that would strengthen the US mining powerhouse’s position in copper and gold. Datadog shares are in focus after KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the stock to sector weight from overweight. At the same time, the brokerage upgraded Splunk Inc. to overweight from sector weight. Here are some other notable premarket movers: US-listed Chinese stocks are on track to fall for a third session after Washington’s move to shoot down an alleged surveillance balloon from China spurred new tensions between the two countries. Alibaba declined 1.8% before the bell, Baidu -0.4%, Pinduoduo -3%, JD.com -2.4%, Trip.com -1.1%, Bilibili -2.8% Spotify (SPOT US) gains 1.5% after Wells Fargo and Atlantic Equities raise the music streaming company to buy-equivalent ratings, citing improved margins. PayPal (PYPL US) declines 2.8% as it was cut to market perform from outperform at Raymond James in view of the stock’s out-performance so far this year, paired with the broker’s “cautious stance” on the digital payment company’s 4Q results. Catalent (CTLT US) surges 20% following a Bloomberg report that Danaher (DHR US) is said to be interested in the company, valuing the target at a significant premium. Analysts highlighted that a deal would mean that Danaher would add a contract developing and manufacturing organization (CDMO) to its portfolio. Dow (DOW US) shares edge 0.4% higher as Credit Suisse raised the chemicals company and its peer LyondellBasell (LYB US) to outperform, saying that both should benefit from investors looking optimistically toward 2024 for the US polyethylene market. US stocks declined on Friday as a laughably strong jobs report fanned fears that the Fed could keep interest rates higher for longer. Still, the drop wasn’t sufficient to wipe out weekly gains in the S&P 500 as investors clung to optimism that the central bank’s policy meeting signaled it was preparing to soften its stance on policy over the next few months. The benchmark index has now gained nearly 8% so far this year, but market strategists warned the rally may have gone too far. “Central bankers did sound less hawkish last week, but they will remain data dependent, only ending rate hikes when economic data provides compelling evidence that inflation is returning to target,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “In our view, markets have moved too quickly to price in this pivot.” Goldman strategists also capitulated on the recent market meltup, lifting their 3-month S&P price target from 3,600 to 4,000 but also said they see limited upside for stocks from hereon amid pressure from higher valuations, elevated interest rates and a lackluster corporate earnings outlook. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson broadly shares that view, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said international markets continue to screen as “much more interesting” than the US. In short: banks remain largely bearish which is why stocks will keep rising. “The state of the employment sector is a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process, and thus the number has certainly provided investors with another factor to consider when predicting the course of the Fed’s movements over the next couple of months,” economists at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg wrote in a note. Elsewhere, more than 1,000 people have been killed in Turkey and neighboring Syria after the countries were hit by some of the most powerful quakes in the Middle East in decades. Turkey’s lira held steady against the dollar, while the country’s benchmark stock index dropped, with the Istanbul exchange suspending short selling as part of measures to limit wider market fallout. European stocks also started the week on the back foot: the Stoxx 600 is down 1.1% with real estate, tech and retailers the worst-performing sectors. Here are some of the most notable premarket movers: Vesuvius shares fall as much as 6.7% after the materials technology company reported a “cyber incident” involving unauthorized access to its systems Aurubis shares fall as much as 7%, the most since December, despite the copper smelting firm guiding to earnings at the upper end of expectations Idorsia shares slump as much as 15%, most ever, after the Phase 3 trial of clazosentan failed to meet its main goals Hargreaves Lansdown shares fall as much as 4% after the stockbroker is cut to underperform from neutral at Credit Suisse on concerns about key strands of its growth strategy 3i Infrastructure falls as much as 3.2% after the private equity firm announced a proposed placing at a price of 330p per placing share, representing about a 3% discount to the last close Lem shares fall as much as 3.5%, with Vontobel expecting a slowdown in demand in the near-term for the Swiss electrical component manufacturer Rothschild shares gain as much as 19% to €47.70 after the Rothschild family’s holding company announced its intention to file a simplified tender offer at €48/share with dividends attached Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also fell as concerns over US-China geopolitical tensions fueled risk-off sentiment in the region, with traders also mulling the prospect of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.6%, the most in over seven weeks, dragged by technology shares. Stocks in China and Hong Kong were among the worst performers after the US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon off the South Carolina, raising the risk of retaliation from Beijing. Also weighing on sentiment was an unexpectedly strong US jobs report, seen as giving the Federal Reserve room to remain aggressive in its fight against inflation. Investor optimism had risen recently on signs of a moderation in Fed rate hikes as well as China’s post-pandemic reopening. “Admittedly, a reassessment of geopolitical and policy risks will almost certainly be forced upon markets, taking some air out of stretched ‘pivot’ and China cheer,” said Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd.  Japanese shares bucked the region’s losses on Monday, as the yen weakened after a report that Masayoshi Amamiya was approached by the government to lead the Bank of Japan, fueling hopes of continued easy-money policy. Japanese stocks gained after the Nikkei reported that Masayoshi Amamiya was approached by the government for the role of Bank of Japan governor, a report which however was promptly denied by Japanese authorities. Investors expect a greater likelihood of Haruhiko Kuroda’s ultra-easy monetary policy being extended under Amamiya than with other candidates. “Since Amamiya was the most dovish candidate, this is positive news for the Japanese stock market,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “Share prices are likely to swing upward until the official announcement this Friday, and that might be the climax for stocks.” The Japanese currency fell as much as 1% Monday to around the 132.50 per dollar level, its lowest in three weeks. Shares of automakers and property firms climbed while banks and other financials fell. Yen Retreats After Report Amamiya Approached to Become BOJ Chief The Topix rose 0.5% to close at 1,979.22, while the Nikkei advanced 0.7% to 27,693.65. Mitsubishi Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 7.8%. Out of 2,164 stocks in the index, 1,416 rose and 640 fell, while 108 were unchanged. Australian stocks declined: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,539.00, weighed by losses in real estate shares and banks.  Meanwhile, Newcrest Mining closed 9% higher after Australia’s biggest gold miner received an indicative takeover proposal from US-based Newmont Corp. Markets in New Zealand were closed for a public holiday. Stocks in India declined as most Asian markets slipped amid concerns over US-China geopolitical tensions. The rout in Adani Group’s shares eased as four of ten companies advanced after Billionaire Gautam Adani and his family prepaid $1.11b worth of borrowings backed by shares. The move comes amid the conglomerate’s attempts to allay investor fears and stem a stock rout that has wiped of about $118 billion of stock value. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.6% to 60,506.90 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.5%. Ten out of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector sub-gauges advanced while the rest fell. Metals and utility companies were the worst performers.  Telecom stocks were higher after India agreed to convert $2b of Vodafone Idea’s dues into equity.    The Reserve Bank of India’s three-day policy meeting commenced Monday. The central bank will release its rate decision Wednesday morning, with majority analysts expecting a 25-bps rate hike to curb inflation. Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.8%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 21 fell and nine rose In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4% to its highest level in nearly four weeks as the greenback strengthened against all its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc; the Japanese Yen is the weakest among the G-10 currencies amid speculation over the next BoJ Governor. The euro fell below $1.08, to trade at the weakest level since mid- January, despite a slew of hawkish ECB commentary. Bunds fell, adding around 5-9bps to yields after hawkish commentary from policymakers. The ECB is far from stopping interest-rate increases, despite a slowdown in inflation, according to Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle. It should actively fight inflation until people feel price stability in their everyday lives, according to Governing Council member Robert Holzmann. The central bank would need to see data that “significantly differ” from what’s currently anticipated to avoid raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March as planned, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said in a tweet. German factory orders grew 3.2% in December from the previous month, more than the 2% rise analysts had predicted in a Bloomberg survey The yen slipped against all Group-of-10 peers amid speculation that an appointment of Masayoshi Amamiya as a next governor wouldn’t deter the Bank of Japan from withdrawing monetary stimulus. The pound neared the $1.20 handle after posting its worst week against the dollar since September. Gilts bear-flattened with the two-year yield rising 19 basis points. The notes extended losses as Bank of England policy maker Catherine Mann warned against complacency in tackling inflation and says another rate hike is likely The Swedish krona fell to its lowest level against the euro since 2009, amid broad-based dollar strength and as concerns abound over the state of the nation’s economy In rates, treasuries extended Friday’s jobs-report selloff with yields climbing a further 5bp to 10bp across the curve over Asia, early London sessions as central bankers reinforce hawkish message and tightening premium is added into swaps. The Treasury curve bear-flattened as front-end yields added up to 12 bps with 10Y yields rising 8bps to 3.60%. US curve bear-flattens with front-end and belly of the curve cheaper up to 10bp on the day while long-end yields rise 4.5bp; 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are tighter by ~2bp and ~5bp. In 10-year sector gilts lag, underperforming by 9bp vs Treasuries, bunds by 2bp. Gilts extended declines after hawkish remarks from BoE policymaker Mann. UK two-year yields are up 15bps. In the US, the dollar issuance slate includes three dollar deals; projections for the week range between $30b and $35b as most companies emerge from their self-imposed earnings blackout periods. US auctions resume Tuesday with $40b 3- year notes, followed by 10- and 30-year sales Wednesday and Thursday. In commodities, oil climbed after Turkey halted flows to the Ceyhan export terminal on the Mediterranean coast as a precaution in response to the devastating earthquakes in the region Monday. Crude futures are higher with WTI rising 0.6% to trade near $73.80. Spot gold rises roughly 0.4% to trade near $1,873. There is no macro data on the calendar today. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 4,123.00 MXAP down 1.5% to 165.97 MXAPJ down 2.2% to 541.80 Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,693.65 Topix up 0.5% to 1,979.22 Hang Seng Index down 2.0% to 21,222.16 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,238.70 Sensex down 0.6% to 60,499.33 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,538.98 Kospi down 1.7% to 2,438.19 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 457.16 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.25% Euro down 0.1% to $1.0781 Brent Futures little changed at $79.98/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,875.08 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.24% to 103.16 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The US sent divers to salvage what they believe is spy equipment from the Chinese balloon shot down off South Carolina, as pressure mounted on President Joe Biden to hit back at Beijing with new export controls on sensitive technology There are early indications traders are gearing up for another period of bond scarcity in Europe that risks blunting the impact of monetary tightening The UK Treasury is exploring a significant increase in the bonds it sells to retail investors, a move that analysts say may draw in as much as £70 billion ($85.8 billion) for financing deficits in the coming years If reports are accurate and Masayoshi Amamiya becomes the next BOJ governor, that would be bullish for bonds and weigh on the yen and local financial stocks, according to market participants Japan’s government plans to submit its nominations for the new Bank of Japan governor and 2 deputy governors next week, Kyodo reported, without attribution The Hong Kong dollar is rapidly heading toward the weak end of its trading band against the greenback as traders sell the currency to buy higher-yielding US assets One of the most powerful earthquakes to hit the Middle East in years has killed hundreds of people in Syria and Turkey, and forced a halt in crude oil flows to a key export terminal A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week mostly on the back foot after last Friday’s losses in the US where a blowout jobs report spurred hawkish rate bets and was seen to boost the Fed’s resolve of lifting rates further to above 5%. ASX 200 was subdued heading into tomorrow’s RBA decision and after a jump in the MI Inflation Gauge added to the inflationary narrative, although the downside was limited after quarterly Retail Sales data printed not as bad as feared and amid M&A prospects with Newmont making a USD 16.9bln offer for Newcrest Mining. Nikkei 225 outperformed after a report that Japan’s government sounded out BoJ's Amamiya about becoming the next BoJ Governor with Amamiya seen as more dovish compared to other candidates and was also a key architect in many of the BoJ’s policies including QQE with YCC, although the report was later refuted by a senior government official. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower with Hong Kong pressured by losses in tech, healthcare and property, while risk sentiment was also clouded by tensions after the US shot down China’s spy balloon. Top Asian News Japan’s government has sounded out BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya about becoming the next BoJ Governor with the government to present its nominee to parliament this month, while Amamiya is seen as more dovish than the other potential candidates and will face the task of normalising the BoJ’s ultra-loose policy, according to Nikkei citing government and ruling party sources. However, Finance Minister Suzuki said he hasn't heard anything on BoJ Governor nominations yet and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Isozaki later said there was no truth to the report that BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya was sounded out for the next BoJ Governor. Japanese government is likely to present nominees for the new BoJ governor next week, according to Kyodo.    US military shot down the Chinese spy balloon off the US coast after US President Biden issued the order to take down the balloon, while a US defence official said it was a spy balloon intended to spy on sensitive military sites and part of a fleet of surveillance balloons that have spied over five continents, according to Reuters. China’s Foreign Ministry said it expresses strong dissatisfaction and opposition towards the US’s use of force to attack the airship, while it claimed that the balloon incident was a complete accident caused by a force majeure. Furthermore, it noted that top diplomat Wang Yi communicated with US Secretary of State Blinken on how to deal with accidental incidents in a calm and professional manner, as well as told Blinken that both parties need to communicate in a timely manner and avoid misjudgements, according to Reuters. China’s Defence Ministry said the use of force against the Chinese civilian unmanned airship was an obvious overreaction and China reserves the right to use necessary means to deal with similar situations, according to Reuters. US is considering sanctions for Chinese surveillance companies regarding sales to Iran’s security forces, according to WSJ. US is reportedly mulling deploying medium-range missiles in Japan as part of a plan to bolster defences against China along the East and South China Seas, according to Sankei. China's Commerce Ministry says the Australian and Chinese trade ministers held a virtual meeting on February 6th, conducted pragmatic and candid exchanges; meeting was an important step in getting relations back on track, willing to restart the economic and trade exchange mechanism with Australia. European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, as Friday's post-NFP price action continues to reverberate. Stateside, futures are similarly pressured ES -1.0% given the hawkish repricing, as such the tech-laden/yield-sensitive NQ -1.3% is lagging. Top European News A magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit Turkey near the border with Syria which killed dozens on both sides and injured hundreds, while Turkey's disaster agency reported that 76 were killed and 440 were injured, according to Reuters. Subsequently, a new earthquake of magnitude 7.8 has struck southern Turkey, according to journalist Stein; earthquake was also reported in the Syrian capital Damascus. EU will accept the principle that GB goods shipped to N. Ireland and staying there should be treated differently to goods moving into the single market, as such will agree to a green & red lane model at ports, via RTE's Connelly citing a senior EU source; a separate source adds that there will not be an announcement this week. UK PM Sunak was warned by senior Tories that he would face a backlash from the party and certain defeat in the House of Commons if he attempts to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights, according to FT. ECB’s Visco said short-term inflation expectations are dropping sharply and policy tightening can continue with due caution, while he added that longer-term inflation expectations are consistent with the price stability goal. Visco also commented that the risk of the Italian bond spread increasing will be contained as long as budgetary policies remain cautious and said that supervisors are monitoring credit, liquidity and refinancing risks as higher interest rates could impact banks’ funding costs quicker than in the past, according to Reuters. Central Banks BoE's Mann says looking for a significant and sustained deceleration in higher frequency price increases, "We need to stay the course, and in my view the next step in Bank Rate is still more likely to be another hike than a cut or hold." adding "In my view, a tighten-stop-tighten-loosen policy boogie looks too much like fine-tuning to be good monetary policy." BoE and UK Treasury draft document said that they believe a central bank digital currency will likely be needed by later in the decade, according to The Telegraph. ECB's Kazaks says if the data is in-line with expectations then rates will be hiked by 50bp in March, decision could be changed if the incoming data differs significantly. ECB's Holzmann says the risk of over-tightening policy appears to be dwarfed by the risk of doing too little. FX DXY continues to climb and has lifted to a 103.38 peak from a 103.00 base given the broad-based hawkish price action and despite fleeting/limited bids in GBP and EUR. Specifically, the EUR saw some shortlived support amid familiar commentary from hawkish ECB officials and upside in the region's construction PMIs; though, EUR remains lower and at the 1.0761 trough vs USD. Similarly, GBP received a slight bid following BoE's Mann; though, as above, this has been eroded by the USD's underlying strength and as such Cable is at the lower end of 1.2023-1.2070 parameters. JPY is the standout laggard amid, since refuted, reports that current BoJ Deputy Amamiya could be the gov'ts nominee for Governor, with USD/JPY up to 132.56 given Amamiya's dovish stance. Elsewhere, the non-US dollars are succumbing to the USD's bid with the RBA due this week and attention on the regions geopolitics. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7737 vs exp. 6.7755 (prev. 6.7382) Fixed Income A continuation of Friday’s post-NFP hawkish repricing has pushed Bunds to retest and eventually lose Thursday’s 137.00 trough after opening just below the post-NFP 137.70 low this morning. In the wake of BoE's Mann, Gilts slipped to a 106.29 low at the time; a trough that has since been significantly eclipsed with the contract down to 105.65 as the session’s broader hawkish tone intensifies. Stateside, the picture is very much the same as above. With the post-NFP hawkish repricing in full swing as participants await guidance from numerous Fed officials this week, with Chair Powell on Tuesday the on-paper highlight. US yields continue to lift with action much more pronounced at the short-end of the curve; nonetheless, the 10yr yield has printed a 3.616% peak ahead of the YTD 3.84% best. Commodities Crude benchmarks are firmer on the session and have largely been consolidating after the substantial post-NFP losses, with geopolitics and the halt of some oil deliveries in Turkey post-earthquake occurring perhaps factoring. Currently, the benchmarks reside towards the top-end of USD 73.13-74.03/bbl and USD 79.61-80.81/bbl parameters for WTI Mar and Brent Apr. IEA chief Birol said the price cap on Russian oil achieved the objectives of stabilising the oil markets and cutting Russia’s oil revenues with its oil and gas export revenues in January down by almost 30% or around USD 8bln in January from a year ago. Birol also commented that the largest uncertainty this year is China and expects half of global oil demand growth will be from China this year, while he also stated that China’s jet fuel demand is exploding this year which puts upward pressure on global demand and noted that the products markets will stabilise in H2 as more refineries come online, according to Reuters. Saudi’s Energy Minister said he hopes that sanctions, embargoes and a lack of investment don’t lead to a shortage of energy supplies, according to Reuters. UAE’s ADNOC set March Murban crude OSP at USD 82.63/bbl vs USD 80.11 in February. It was separately reported that the UAE, France and India established a tripartite initiative as they seek to cooperate in areas including energy and climate change, according to state news agency WAM. Saudi Arabia sets its March Arab Light Crude OSP to Asia at +2.00/bbl (+0.20/bbl vs exp. USD -0.30/bbl) vs Oman/Dubai averages, according to Reuters sources; the first increase in six months. Spot gold is attempting to nurse losses but has been drifting from USD 1881/oz best levels as the renewed upside in yields supports the USD; while base metals are succumbing to the broader risk tone. Geopolitical Ukrainian President Zelensky said there are fierce battles in the Donetsk region and the situation is very difficult with Russia intensifying pressure on various fronts and in terms of information heading into the first anniversary of the war, according to Reuters. Ukraine’s Defence Minister Reznikov was transferred to another ministerial job and the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence Budanov was named as the new Defence Minister. Furthermore, there were prior comments by Reznikov that they expect a possible major Russian offensive this month and that Ukraine has the reserves to hold back the Russian offensive despite not receiving all of the latest military supplies from the west by then, according to Reuters. UK PM Sunak spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky over the weekend and agreed it was vital for the international community to speed up assistance for Ukraine, according to Reuters. Russian Defence Ministry said Kyiv is preparing to blow up buildings in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk and accuse Russia of war crimes in a false flag operation, according to Reuters. Russia’s Defence Ministry also announced that 63 Russian POWs were returned from Ukrainian captivity after complex negotiations with Ukraine that were mediated by the UAE. Russia and Iran advance plans for an Iranian-designed drone facility in Russia, according to WSJ. Russian Kremlin says a meeting between President Putin and IAEA Chief Grossi is not planned but Rossi will meet with the foreign ministry and Rosatom officials. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei pardoned a large number of security-related prisoners that were arrested due to recent protests, according to state TV. US cybersecurity agency CISA is assessing the impact of reported incidents after Italy raised the alarm regarding a global hacking attack, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The week after payrolls is usually quiet for data. All I can say is thank goodness for that as it'll take until next month's release to decipher Friday's report. We'll have a first stab at it below but before we do, we'll quickly outline the highlights of the week ahead. Given the blockbuster payrolls print, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Economic Club of Washington tomorrow could be the highlight. The release valve post the blackout period will mean we have a mini deluge of other Fed speakers too including Vice Chair of Supervision Barr (tomorrow), New York Fed President Williams, Fed Governor Cook, Minneapolis President Kashkari and Fed Governor Waller (all Wednesday). Their comments on the payroll report will be devoured and it'll be interesting if they, and especially Powell, decide to slightly firm up the hawkish spin and be more explicit on a terminal rate above 5%. We continue to think we'll get that, but the market has been increasingly pricing a pause after March and cuts by year-end. To be fair, Friday saw terminal edge back above 5% (climbing +12.5bps to 5.025% on the day) with December 2023 contracts up +23bps to 4.58%. This week's Fedspeak on financial conditions will also be interesting as the relaxed attitude of Powell to them at the FOMC presser encouraged a big dovish market reaction. Much of this was reversed on Friday but the sensitivities to such comments remain high. There's plenty of other central bank speak this week. See it in the day-by-day calendar at the end. In terms of data, it's certainly a second-tier week ahead. The delayed German CPI report on Thursday might be one of the highlights. It was delayed due to technical issues around base year changes. Given the payrolls revisions, that does make one a little nervous (in either direction), but we will see. In the US, the UoM consumer sentiment survey (Friday) and the usual inflation expectations will be a focus as usual. Elsewhere, UK GDP numbers on Friday will be a highlight after the IMF last week suggested they would be one of the 2023 developed world growth laggards. Over in Asia, key macro indicators include China's CPI and PPI reports on Friday, with median Bloomberg estimates pointing to readings of 2.2% YoY (vs 1.8% in December) and -0.5% YoY (vs -0.7% in December), respectively. Earnings season continues in the background. Just under half of S&P 500 firms have now reported with results from Disney, Uber (Wednesday) and PayPal (Thursday) among the key ones for the large cap index this week. Private capital managers will also be in the spotlight with KKR (Tuesday), Brookfield (Wednesday) and Apollo (Thursday) releasing results throughout the week. European Big Oil heavyweights also report including BP (tomorrow) and Total (Wednesday). Consumer-driven names including Chipotle, Royal Caribbean (tomorrow), PepsiCo and L'Oreal (Thursday) report with other notable earnings releases including Activision Blizzard (today), AstraZeneca and Siemens (Thursday). Now that's out of the way, let's go back to an astonishing payrolls report where the annual revisions caused chaos amongst the economist community. Indeed, our economists noted (here) that the benchmark revisions have increased 2022 nonfarm payrolls by 586k. In addition, hours worked were revised up by a tenth to 34.6 and average hourly earnings (AHEs) revised up by 20bps (12-month average). The upshot is that the year-over-year growth rate of the payroll proxy for nominal income growth as of December 2022 was revised up by 80bps (to 7.3%) relative to what was previously reported prior to the benchmark revision. If an extra 586k jobs in 2022 wasn't enough, January saw both headline (517k vs. 260k last month) and private (443k vs. 269k) payrolls exceed consensus estimates. Unemployment fell a tenth to 3.4% to fresh 53-year lows, and the labour force participation rate edged up a tenth to 62.4%. Elsewhere, AHEs (+0.3% vs. +0.4%) was largely in line with expectations but weekly hours worked surprisingly rose 0.3 hours to 34.7hrs. Our economists also highlighted that the combination of strong job gains, a surge in hours worked and a still-sturdy increase in AHEs meant that the year-over-year growth rate of the payroll proxy for nominal income (particularly the compensation component) increased by 120bps to 8.5% -- nearly 200bps above what they had previously imagined. In trying to explain the bumper January, some have looked at the seasonal adjustment. Normally January is a big month for seasonal layoffs and these get accounted for in the seasonal adjustments. However, in January 2023 lay-offs were 300-400k less than usual. This is no smoking gun but shows the huge seasonals that take place in January. But make no mistake, the other parts of the report - past and present - were strong so it's more to try to assess whether it was as strong as appears. Asian equity markets are trading lower after the print. As I type, the Hang Seng (-2.31%) is leading losses across the region with the CSI (-1.67%), the Shanghai Composite (-1.01%) and the KOSPI (-1.02%) also falling sharply on renewed risk aversion. Adding to the downbeat mood are geopolitical concerns after the Chinese spy balloon was shot down by the US (more on this below). Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.76%) is bucking the trend in early trade as the Japanese yen initially weakened over -1% against the dollar, after a report indicated that the BOJ’s Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya has been approached to potentially take over the role as the next Governor once Haruhiko Kuroda’s term ends on April 8. He is seen as dovish and thus prompting the reaction. The story has been denied and the Yen has halved its losses but the market will likely think that there is no smoke without fire. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are printing fresh losses with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.31%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.37%) edging lower. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (+2.04 bps) are trading at 3.55% as we go to press. Looking ahead, the diplomatic tensions over the Chinese balloon entering US air space will be worth watching this week. The US shot it down over a weekend that was supposed to mark a thawing of diplomatic relations between the countries, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken visiting China, the first such visit in four years. This was postponed last week and an originally conciliatory China turned more aggressive after the balloon was eventually shot down. We will see if there is any retaliation and/or how strong the rhetoric is. Looking back at last week now. Risk assets performed strongly over the week, but fell back on Friday after the US jobs data surprised significantly to the upside and moderated market expectations of the Fed cutting rates at the back end of 2023. The ISM services index for January also surprised to the upside, rising 6 points to 55.2 (vs 50.5 expected). This is the largest monthly advance since June 2020 and adds to the view that economic growth in the US remains resilient for the time being. The new orders subcomponent also jumped to 60.4, its highest level since the start of last year. These strong prints followed Chair Powell’s emphasis on Wednesday that a softer labour market, and particularly easing wage gains, were key to reducing inflation. Against this backdrop, markets moved to price in a higher terminal rate, with fed fund futures for June pricing a 5% terminal again after rising +12.6bps on the day to 5.025%. The implied rate for the final Fed meeting of 2023 also rose, increasing +23bps to 4.58%. US stocks swung between gains and losses following the strong data on Friday but they maintained their strong start to 2023 over the week. The S&P 500 was down -1.04% on Friday but +1.62% on the week. The NASDAQ also finished the week up +3.31% (but -1.59% on Friday), and the FANG+ index outperformed in being up +7.03% on the week (-2.57% on Friday), its largest weekly move-up since mid-March and to its highest level since mid-April. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 closed up +0.34% on Friday, its highest level since mid-April. In weekly terms, the index was up +1.23%. In fixed income markets, US Treasuries fell back on Friday as markets priced in higher Fed rates. Policy sensitive 2yr Treasury yields spiked +18.4bps on Friday, closing up +8.9bps over the week. 10yr Treasuries also retreated, with yields up +13.2bps on Friday and up +2.1bps for the week. In Germany, the story was similar, with 2yr Bund yields climbing higher by +7.1bps to 2.53%, although they were down by -3.3bps in weekly terms. 10yr Bunds also retreated, with yields up +11.3bps on Friday to 2.19% but down -4.7bps on the week. Fixed income markets in the rest of the continent were also in red on Friday with OATs up +12.7bps (-6.0bps on the week) BTPs up +12.2bps (-7.2bps on the week after the biggest fall in a decade on Thursday after the ECB). Staying with fixed income, credit markets saw significant tightening last week to reach their richest valuations since last Spring. USD IG cash spreads tightened -4bps to 115bps over the week (unchanged Friday) to their lowest levels since early April. Meanwhile, USD HY spreads tightened -28bps on the week (-1bp Friday) to 385bps, which is the tightest spreads have been since the first week of May. In Europe, EUR IG was -10bps tighter (-2bps on Friday) and EUR HY cash spreads were -24bps tighter (-12bps Friday) to also finish at their tightest levels since April. Turning to commodity markets, WTI Crude had a poor week, down -6.29% (-3.28% on Friday) to $73.39/bbl, its lowest level since the first week of 2023. Brent Crude also fell back last week, down -7.75% (-2.71% on Friday). This weak performance also translated to other commodities, with copper down -3.93% last week (-0.84% on Friday) and gold -2.50% to $1,865 on Friday, down -3.27% on the week. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/06/2023 - 08:07.....»»

California Snowpack At 40 Year Highs...And Rising: Officials Authored by Rudy Blalock via The Epoch Times, Snowpack levels in California continue to increase, after reaching their highest level in 40 years, after weeks of storms in December and January. But, water officials reported that with a dry forecast ahead, more is needed to escape the state’s three-year drought. The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which is measured at Phillips Station near South Lake Tahoe, was measured at 205 percent of the historical average for the year on Feb. 1, following three of the wettest weeks California has had in years, according to officials. It additionally has risen 20 percent more than when it was measured last month. “Our snowpack is off to an incredible start. And it’s exactly what California needs to really help break from our ongoing drought,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of snow surveys and water supply forecasting with the California Department of Water Resources. He noted, however, that some of the state’s largest reservoirs are still lacking water. “We’ve seen an impressive increase in reservoir storage statewide, but there are still some of these larger reservoirs that are actually still below average,” he said. According to Guzman, since Dec. 1, there has been an increase of 9-million-acre feet in reservoir storage. “However, for every day that it doesn’t rain or snow, we gradually return to drier conditions,” he said. The recent measurement was also a 137 percent increase compared to an average taken last April, which is considered the peak of the annual snowpack. But according to Karla Nemeth, director of the water resources department, the state’s traditional snow peak date, may now be in flux. “What is happening with climate is that the timing of that peak is changing,” she said. She said the department is hopeful for a large return of water from the snowmelt into the state’s ground basins, which hold about 10 times more than reservoirs. “It takes a lot longer to fill our groundwater basins than it does our reservoir storage,” she said. Nemeth added that California isn’t out of the woods yet, regarding its current drought. She said recent storms could be followed by an excessive dry period. “There’s a lot more that needs to play out over the course of the next several months for us to really capture our full water supply picture here in California,” she said. Tyler Durden Sat, 02/04/2023 - 17:00.....»»

Vice President Kamala Harris and Al Sharpton were among hundreds of guests at Tyre Nichols' funeral at Mississippi Boulevard Church in Memphis. Tyre Nichols' funeral was held Wednesday at Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church in Memphis.A man arranges flowers around Tyre Nichols' casket at Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church in Memphis, Tenn., on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023.Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, PoolThe funeral of Tyre Nichols, the 29-year-old Memphian who was brutally beaten by five police officers on January 7, was held Wednesday at the Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church in Memphis. Nichols, who has a 4-year-old son, has been remembered by his family and friends as a lover of sunsets, photography, and skateboarding. Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with Nichols' mother, RowVaughn Wells, on Tuesday, accepting her invitation to the funeral.Rev. Al Sharpton, the Founder and President of the National Action Network (NAN), eulogized Nicholas and attorney Ben Crump delivered "a call to action" in a service led by Rev. J. Lawrence Turner.  Tamika Palmer, the mother of Breonna Taylor, and Philonise Floyd, the brother of George Floyd, also attended. Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church, known as "The BLVD", is the first African American church in the city of MemphisThe sanctuary at Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church is seen before the start the funeral service for Tyre Nichols in Memphis, Tenn., on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023.Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, PoolNichols' death jolted Memphis activists into action this month. The police department was also quick to launch an investigation into the officers involved. Within a week, the Tennessee Bureau of Investigations, Shelby County District Attorney's Office, and the Department of Justice had all launched investigations into the officers' actions. On January 20, five officers — all of them Black and members of the SCORPION anti-crime unit — were fired. On Thursday— 28 hours before the release of the body camera video showing the brutal beating — they were charged with second-degree murder.Their unit was disbanded on Saturday.Two other officers have been on paid administrative leave since the start of the investigation, the Memphis police department announced this week.Reporters and media were kept out of the Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church sanctuary on Wednesday, but the service was livestreamed for the public. Inclement weather delayed the service by a few hoursTerry Lawrence, of Memphis, Tenn., spreads ice melting salt around Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church where a funeral service for Tyre Nichols will be held after a delay due to weather on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023AP Photo/Jeff RobersonInclement weather caused travel delays to Memphis on Tuesday and Wednesday, prompting organizers to move the funeral from 10:30 a.m. CT to 1 p.m. CT. Snow and frigid 27-degree weather did not deter guests from showing up to the church to honor Nichols. At the start of the service on Wednesday, Rev. J. Lawrence Turner noted guests ventured out in "treacherous" conditions to make it to the funeral. The church is located in midtown, about a 10-minute drive from the Raines Road and Ross Road intersection where Nichols was pulled over by Memphis officers on January 7.  Civil Rights Attorney Ben Crump escorted Tyre Nichols' mother and step-father into the churchAttorney Benjamin Crump, left, RowVaughn Wells, mother of Tyre Nichols, center, and stepfather Rodney Wells, center right, all arrive to the funeral service for Tyre Nichols, at Mississippi Boulevard Christian ChurchAP Photo/Jeff RobersonCivil rights attorney Ben Crump is representing the Nichols family. Crump has become the go-to lawyer for high-profile police killings in the US. On Tuesday, Crump's office announced that Vice President Kamala Harris would attend the funeral. "Vice President Harris and Ms. Wells spoke exclusively, and during this emotional time, the Vice President was able to console Ms. Wells and even help her smile," Crump said in a statement Tuesday. "Tyre's parents invited Vice President Harris to the funeral tomorrow, and were pleased that she accepted their invitation."Former New Orleans mayor Mitchell Joseph Landrieu is recognized during the funeral service for Tyre Nichols.Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, PoolPoliticians, activists, and families of police brutality victims filled the church for the funeral. Al Sharpton said that people who show up when the cameras are around need to support the family when the cameras are gone, too.  RowVaughn Wells wept as she approached her son's casketRowVaughn Wells cries as she and her husband Rodney Wells arrive for the funeral service for her son Tyre Nichols at Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church in Memphis, Tenn.Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, PoolRowVaughn Wells has addressed the community several times since her son died.Each time, she asked that demonstrations stay peaceful in his honor.Nichols' was severely beaten less than 100 yards from his mother's home. Speaking at Mt. Olive CME Church in downtown Memphis last week, Wells said that she had a pain in her stomach the night her son was beaten and she didn't know why. Now, she believes it was her son's pain that she was feeling. On Wednesday, Tiffany Rachal, mother of Houston police shooting victim Jalen Randle, sang a song at Nichols' funeral. Before she did, she addressed Wells."My condolences go out to this mother. I'm here to offer my condolence to you. I pray that God bless you. I pray that God heal your broken heart," she said. "We're fighting together and all the mothers all over the world need to come together and stop all of this." Vice President Kamala Harris hugs RowVaughn Wells during the funeral service for Wells' son Tyre Nichols.Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, PoolVice President Kamala Harris spoke Wednesday at the funeral. After embracing RowVaughn Wells, Rev. Al Sharpton asked Harris to share a few words at the church."Mrs. Wells. Mr Wells, you have been extraordinary in terms of your strength, your courage, and your grace," Harris said. "And we mourn with you, and the people of our country mourn with you."  Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the funeral service for Tyre Nichols at Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church.Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, PoolHarris said that Nichols' death was not in the service of public safety and that he should be alive."Mothers around the world, when their babies are born, pray to God when they hold that child that that body and that life will be safe for the rest of their life," she said. "Yet we have a mother and a father here who mourn the life of a young man who should be alive today."Harris demanded that congress pass the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act, saying President Biden will sign it. Rev. Al Sharpton spoke directly to the officers who beat NicholsRev. Al Sharpton stands in the front of the sanctuary at Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church in Memphis, Tenn., before the funeral service for Tyre Nichols on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023.Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, PoolRev. Al Sharpton told the church he understood that "as a Black man" he understood why Tyre's last words were calling for his mother. "He knew if he could just get mother, they would stop beating him, stop stomping on him," Sharpton said.The civil rights leader opened the first part of his eulogy with harsh words for the five officers who beat Nichols. He called their actions "offensive" in the city where Dr. Martin Luther King was assassinated."Five Black men who wouldn't have had a job in the police department, would not have been thought of to be in an elite squad, in the city where Dr. King lost his life, he said.Sharpton said that those officers and their Chief C.J. Davis never would have had a job if it wasn't for activists fighting and marching on their behalf."How dare you act like that sacrifice was for nothing," Sharpton said. "You ain't in no New England state, you in Tennessee where we had to fight for you." Sharpton also spoke of the importance of passing the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act, which would end qualified immunity for officers.Doing so would ensure 'the same manners you have on the white side of town you have on the white side of town," he said."Why do we want the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act to pass, because then you'll have to think twice before you beat Tyre Nichols," he said. "If you don't have qualified immunity, your wife would be telling you before you leave home, 'behave yourself because we could lose the house, we could lose the car.'" Vice President Kamala Harris greets friends and family of Tyre Nichols.Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, PoolKeyana Dixon, Nichols' big sister, was 11 years older. She said that when she was growing up she had to watch her little brothers, sometimes taking them places she didn't want to. Nichols, though, was easy to watch, she said. "He didn't want anything other than to watch TV with a big bowl of cereal," she said.Dixon told the guests at the funeral she was devastated when she learned of her brother's death, but even in death he didn't lose his light."When my mother called me and said my baby brother was gone I lost my faith. I cried. I screamed at God, asking how could he let this happen. Then my tears turned to anger and anger turned to deep sorrow," she said."Pain l never felt when those monsters murdered my baby brother, they left me completely heartbroken," she added. "All I want is my baby brother back." Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Generative AI is breathing new life into San Francisco after two years of Silicon Valley tech companies shuttering offices because of the pandemic. Diego Rodriguez and Víctor Perez, KREA's cofounders.Thomas Maxwell/Insider Because of pandemic-era closings, San Francisco became somewhat of a ghost town for two years. As people left and worked remotely, some wondered whether San Francisco was dead as a tech hub. Now a race to succeed in the fledgling space of generative AI has founders flocking back.  San Francisco's tech scene is back.After the pandemic effectively shut down the city for more than two years, sentiment is shifting away from proclamations of a once great city's demise and toward the good old times, when it was the destination for people trying to reshape the world's technological vision. Across the city, founders are planting their flags, with dreams of riding the wave of a new technology that's been said to be a step change akin to the iPhone: generative artificial intelligence. Amber Yang, an early-stage investor at Bloomberg Beta, recently tweeted that startups in that field were flocking to San Francisco's Hayes Valley neighborhood, which founders have renamed "Cerebral Valley." The tweet was made somewhat in jest, but Yang added that the nascent field of generative AI was advancing so quickly that teams felt being together in one hub was necessary to keep up.Generative AI takes training data — for instance, a vast collection of written text — and teaches itself how to produce unique works. In the first five days of its release, more than 1 million people tried out ChatGPT, an AI chatbot that can respond to questions with humanlike answers, according to Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. Microsoft is reportedly investing $10 billion in OpenAI, with plans to incorporate ChatGPT into its Bing search engine and Azure cloud offerings.To be sure, ChatGPT has limitations. It may know how to form humanlike sentences, but it can't discern whether they're accurate. Still, the underlying technology of generative AI is impressive, and startup founders see much potential. Twenty-two percent of generative-AI companies are based in the greater San Francisco Bay Area, and 55% of capital invested in the space is landing there, James Currier, a partner at the early-stage investment firm NFX, said.The 'crazy hackers' are hereVíctor Perez and Diego Rodriguez knew San Francisco was the place to be for generative AI when they moved there several months ago to build KREA. Their startup, in the city's Hayes Valley neighborhood, creates models for high-quality image generation and asset-management services.Originally from Spain, the duo first landed in Miami last year, where they developed generative image models. There, they said they noticed that most of the "crazy hackers" they met came from San Francisco.After they gave New York a try for several weeks, the generative-AI boom picked up. People began telling them to head West. Dave Fontenot, who founded a 12-week founder residency program in San Francisco called HF0, told them they'd be "crazy" and "irresponsible" not to work on generative AI in San Francisco, Perez said.The home where KREA's founders work.Thomas Maxwell/InsiderPerez and Rodriguez initially planned to stay briefly, but when they started meeting people around San Francisco working on generative tech — including people working on artificial intelligence at Meta and OpenAI — they knew they had to stay. They said they felt the excitement and the motivation of developers to build something new.Pre-pandemic, these types of bare homes for startup founders were common.Thomas Maxwell/InsiderPerez said that the sense of urgency to get working on building better AI models came from how generative AI improved with more data. Models must be trained using real data created by humans — the more images of a fish that an AI model sees, the better it gets at producing its own image of a fish, for instance."We feel urgency," Perez said. "But it's not because some other people can create a better model than us today. It's creating the best models tomorrow."KREA is developing high-quality image models, like one that can generate images in the style of a Studio Ghibli film.Thomas Maxwell/InsiderAnother founder who recently landed in San Francisco, Nicholas Locascio, is working on Booth AI, which targets e-commerce with a tool that generates professional product shots without the user having to pay for an expensive photo shoot. Customers of the tech upload an image of a product — say, a coffee mug — and then Booth AI can place it in a lifestyle scene that makes it look appealing on e-commerce pages. Along with his cofounders, Ian Baldwin and Mitra Morgan, Locascio was recently accepted into the vaunted Y Combinator accelerator program in Silicon Valley."This is a technology that a lot of traditional thinking about programming just doesn't work for," Locascio said. "Nobody knows the best way to do anything right now. It's a complete gold rush."Ian Baldwin and Nicholas Locascio, two of Booth AI's cofounders.Nicholas Locascio'No skeptics yet'While founders are confident that generative AI will change the world, they're still trying to figure out exactly how it will play out. "There are no skeptics yet, so it's a unique time," Currier, the NFX partner, said. "But entrepreneurs have to figure it out because the Big Tech companies aren't sitting around."To Currier's point, Google issued a "code red" in recent weeks to respond to the threat of generative-AI products to the company's search and other key services, The New York Times reported in December.That's why it's key for up-and-coming AI-startup developers to work together to get ahead while they can and share ideas with each other — similar to how in the early days of the sharing economy, the Uber cofounder Travis Kalanick and Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky would have dinner together frequently and leave with ideas on how to improve their companies, according to the Amazon biography "The Everything Store.""The lunch and the parties happening in the Bay Area are going to have a substantial impact" on who figures out the strategies to win, Currier said, adding: "So being in the same place matters."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Generative AI is breathing new life into San Francisco after two years of Silicon Valley tech companies shuttering offices because of the pandemic. KREA co-founders Diego Rodríguez and Víctor Perez.Thomas Maxwell/Insider Because of pandemic-era closings, San Francisco became somewhat of a ghost town for two years.  As people left the city and worked remotely, some wondered if San Francisco was dead as a tech hub.  Now, a race to succeed in the fledgling space of generative AI has founders flocking back.  San Francisco's tech scene is back. After the pandemic effectively shut down the city for more than two years, San Francisco is shifting away from proclamations of a once-great city's demise and towards the good old times, when it was the destination for those trying to reshape the world's technological vision. Across the city, founders are planting their flags, with dreams of riding the wave of a new technology that's been said to be a step-change akin to the iPhone: generative artificial intelligence. Amber Yang, an early-stage investor at Bloomberg Beta, recently tweeted that startups in that field are flocking to San Francisco's Hayes Valley neighborhood, which founders have renamed to "Cerebral Valley." The tweet was somewhat made in jest, but Yang went on to explain that the nascent field of generative AI is advancing so quickly that teams feel being together in one hub is necessary to keep up.Generative AI takes training data — for instance, a vast corpus of written text — and teaches itself how to produce completely new, unique works. In the first five days since its release, more than 1 million people have reportedly tried out ChatGPT, an AI chatbot that can respond to questions with human-like answers. Microsoft is reportedly investing $10 billion in the tool's creator OpenAI, with plans to incorporate the technology into its Bing search and Azure cloud offerings. ChatGPT has limitations, however. It may know how to form human-like sentences, but it can't discern whether they're accurate. Still, the underlying technology of generative AI is nonetheless quite impressive, and startup founders see much potential.  22% of generative AI companies are based in the greater San Francisco Bay Area, and 55% of capital invested in the space is landing here, says James Currier, a partner with early-stage investment firm NFX.  The "crazy hackers" are hereFounders Víctor Perez and Diego Rodríguez knew San Francisco was the place to be for generative AI when they moved there several months ago to build KREA. Their startup, based in the city's Hayes Valley neighborhood, creates models for high-quality image generation along with asset management services.Originally from Spain, the duo first landed in Miami last year, where they developed generative image models. There, they noticed that most of the "crazy hackers" they met came from San Francisco.After giving New York a try for several weeks, the generative AI boom picked up. People began telling them to head west. Dave Fontenot, founder of a 12-week residency program called HF0 for founders in San Francisco, told them they'd be "crazy" and "irresponsible" not to work on generative AI in San Francisco, Perez said.The home where KREA's founders work.Thomas Maxwell/InsiderPerez and Rodríguez initially planned to stay briefly, but when they started meeting people around San Francisco working on generative tech — including individuals working on artificial intelligence at Meta and OpenAI — they knew they had to stay. They said they felt the excitement and the motivation of developers to build something new. Pre-pandemic, these types of bare homes of startup founders were common.Thomas Maxwell/InsiderPerez said that the sense of urgency to get working on building better AI models comes from how generative AI improves with more data. Models must be trained using real data created by humans — the more images of a fish that an AI model sees, the better it gets at producing its own image of a fish, for instance."We feel urgency," Perez said. "But it's not because some other people can create a better model than us today. It's creating the best models tomorrow."KREA is developing high-quality image models, like one that can generate images in the style of a Studio Ghibli film. It will also give users an intuitive canvas where they can manage their images and collaborate.Thomas Maxwell/InsiderAnother founder who recently landed in San Francisco, Nicholas Locascio, is working on Booth AI, which targets e-commerce with a tool that generates professional product shots without having to pay for an expensive photo shoot. Customers upload images of their product — say, a coffee mug — and then Booth AI can place the coffee mug in a lifestyle scene that makes it look appealing on e-commerce pages. Along with co-founders Ian Baldwin and Mitra Morgan, Locascio was recently accepted into the vaunted Y Combinator accelerator program based in Silicon Valley."This is a technology that a lot of traditional thinking about programming just doesn't work for," Locascio said. "Nobody knows the best way to do anything right now. It's a complete gold rush."Booth AI co-founders Ian Baldwin and Nicholas Locascio.Nicholas LocascioNo skeptics yetWhile founders are confident that generative AI will change the world, they're still trying to figure out exactly how it will play out. "There are no skeptics yet, so it's a unique time," said Currier, the NFX partner. "But entrepreneurs have to figure it out because the Big Tech companies aren't sitting around." To Currier's point, Google reportedly issued a "code red" in recent weeks to respond to the potential threat of generative AI products against search and its other key services.That's why it's key for up-and-coming AI startup developers to work together to get ahead while they can and share ideas with each other – similar to how in the early days of the sharing economy, Uber co-founder Travis Kalanick and Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky would reportedly have dinner together frequently and leave with ideas on how to improve their companies. "The lunch and the parties happening in the Bay Area are going to have a substantial impact" on who figures out the strategies to win, Currier said. "So being in the same place matters," he added.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Victor Davis Hanson: The Radical Left Is The Establishment Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com, Anarchy, American-Style The Left runs Oceania, and we work for their various bureaus... The 1960s revolution was both anarchic and nihilist. But it was waged against—not from—the establishment. Hippies and the Left either attacked institutions or, in Timothy Leary fashion, chose to “turn on, tune in, drop out” from them. The current revolution is much different—and far more dangerous—for at least three reasons. The Establishment Is the Revolution The current Left has no intention of “dropping out.” Why would it?  It now controls the very institutions of America that it once mocked and attacked—corporate boardrooms, Wall Street, state and local prosecuting attorneys, most big-city governments, the media, the Pentagon, network and most of cable news, professional sports, Hollywood, music, television, K-12 education, and academia.  In other words, the greatest levers of influence and power—money, education, entertainment, government, the news, and popular culture—are in the hands of the Left. They have transformed legitimate debate over gay marriage into a hate crime. Transgenderism went from a modern manifestation of ancient transvestism or gender dysphoria to a veritable litmus test of whether one was good or evil. Students have no need to jam administrators’ offices because the latter, themselves, are as radical as the protestors and often lead them on in a top-down fashion. Had they not long ago demonstrated they were perfectly willing to subvert meritocracy, free expression, and equality under the law, they would not be occupying their present positions. Apple, Google, Facebook, and other tech companies are not 1980s and 1990s “alternative” media geeks and hipsters creating neat gadgets for the people. They are not Steve Jobs and his pugnacious Apple battling the evil Microsoft or IBM, or the Macintosh commercial of 1984 depicting a maverick throwing a hammer into Big Brother’s screen. They are the Orwellian screen. The current generation of techies is effectively Stalinist. Big Tech now colludes with the FBI, the Democratic Party, and the bureaucratic state to suppress free expression, warp balloting, and serve as contractors of government surveillance. Currently, the most totalitarian people in America are likely to wear flip flops, have a nose ring or pink hair, and disguise their fascism with ’60s-retread costumes. There are no “armies of the night” marching on the Pentagon. Would-be demonstrators see no need, since radical identity politics, and gay, woke, and transgendered agendas are fast-tracked by the Department of Defense.  There are no protests against the Immigration and Customs Enforcement bureau or the “La Migra” anymore by advocates of illegal immigration, because the Left owns the border. And it has utterly destroyed it. There is no border, no border enforcement, and no meaningful immigration law. As many as 6 million illegal entries during the first two years of the Biden Administration are proof enough of that.  There are no cutting-edge Lenny Bruces or Mort Sahls fighting state censorship because entertainers accept that 1) there are no impediments to vulgarity or pornographic expression, but 2) no comic or commentator dares to take on the diversity, equity, and inclusion woke industry because he assumes he would be crushed, and his career ruined.  Question the woke status quo, and one is not canonized in Vanity Fair or Rolling Stone as a fighter against the “uptight establishment” or “the man” as in the past, but now demonized as a racist purveyor of “hate speech” and enemy of the people. The Left does not despise the FBI. It lauds it. And the bureau is no longer consumed with tracking down violent criminals and terrorists. Instead, it has become an enemy of parents worried about school indoctrination, or a retrieval service for lost first-family classified papers, laptops and diaries, or a Washington, D.C., cadre knee-deep in big money politics.  FBI agents are praised on left–wing media—given they have been activist conspirators who sought to destroy conservative candidates, deleted subpoenaed data, lied to federal investigators or committees while under oath, colluded with Russian oligarchs, doctored court evidence, and paid foreign nationals to compile campaign dirt on American citizens. There are no longer calls for a “three strikes” solution to violent crime as in the past, or talk of adopting the successful, time-tried “broken windows” theories of law enforcement, because there is no enforcement to modulate. The debate is no longer over enforcing the law, because de facto there is no law. The new legal establishment has replaced the old by simply nuking centuries of jurisprudence. Violent repeat criminal offenders injure and maim innocents in the morning and are released by noon to prey again—themselves baffled that the state is even crazier than they are. Note in the 2020-2021 riots, almost no one temporarily arrested was tried, despite $2 billion in damages, upwards of 40 violent deaths, the 1,500 injured law enforcement officers, and the torching of a courthouse, police precinct, and historic Washington, D.C., church. Instead, they were lauded by a mayor as participants in a “summer of love.” Seattle and Washington simply ceded city property to the violent protestors as if they occupied it by right of their superior morality. The summation of the entire sordid summer was the CNN chyron assuring America that the protests on their screens were “mostly peaceful” as flames shot up to the sky in the background. In the 1960s, rioters forced social welfare concessions—or else!—on the establishment. Today the establishment welcomes urban unrest as an excuse to implement agendas that in normal times would be unpalatable. In sum, we are living in anarchy, as institutions themselves have become nihilistic and weapons of the revolution. The Left, in viral fashion, took over the DNA of America’s institutions, and used them to help destroy their creators. If we are bewildered why Harvard law-graduate prosecutors let out violent criminals just hours after their arrests; or why hyper-rich, pampered athletes who live in near-apartheid enclaves  insult the flag, ignore the National Anthem, and sloganeer woke platitudes, it is because they were taught to undermine the status quo by fundamentally becoming it.  In our present anarchy, $7 a dozen eggs are affordable. Unaffordable gas prices become merely necessary “transitions” to fossil fuels. A “secure” border means there is none. Natural gas must be banned because it supposedly causes asthma. Tens of thousands of homeless defecate, urinate, inject, and fornicate in the increasingly vacant downtowns of Los Angeles and San Francisco, as the Golden Bear state, California, discusses reintroducing Grizzly bears.  Cars and yards are evil, elevators, high-rises, and buses sacred. There are 81 genders (and counting), with even more names for them. “Racist” is our exclamation point, fillip, a mere add-on emphatic. Everything from SAT tests to obesity to working out is racist. When little is racist, then everything must become racist. Batter someone to a pulp and you are out of jail in six hours; claim an election was suspicious and you can be in there for six months or more. Proven merit is a pejorative. Grades are deemed useless by those who could never earn As. Boilerplate equity oaths are the best guide to hiring, retention, and admission. The ACLU or the Anti-Defamation League exist only to spot the incorrect kind of censorship and the wrong kind of antisemitism. Macintosh Becomes MacBeth The second contribution to the present anarchy is big tech, which speeds up the revolution and spreads it broadly. Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four was predicated not just on the Sovietization of the state, but the electronically ubiquitous and near instantaneous means by which the apparat ensures its dominance. One of the strangest things about the Left is that it no longer warns of 1984 but emulates it. How the Left became synonymous with the Internet, social media, mobile phones, pads, and laptops is a long story. But let it be said the Left, and not conservatives, have mastered them all. It has manipulated high tech to change the way we vote, access information, communicate, consume the news, buy, and sell, and express ourselves. In sum, they run Oceania and we work for their various bureaus. Our tech complex has combined the ethos of the 19th-century monopoly with the Chinese Communist system of mass ideological manipulation. The result is that the old Twitter or Facebook mob can ruin a career in a nanosecond. Google can manipulate the order of search results to render you a clueless Winston Smith bewildered by the alternate “reality” that pops up on your computer screen.  Wikipedia is pseudo-official falsification. Trotskization relied on scissors and paste; cancel culture can end you by a split-second use of the delete button—and erase you to 7 billion on the planet. Big Money, Big Woke  Globalization hollowed out the red-state interior and enriched the blue bicoastal elite. Wealth in mining, farming, construction, manufacturing, and assembly became dwarfed by riches of investment, high tech, social media, law, insurance, and real estate. The former were the up-by-the boot straps conservatives, the latter one day rich and the next moment through hype, investment, and venture capital, richer than anyone in the history of civilization. The wealthiest ZIP codes and congressional districts are blue, not red. Most of the Fortune 400 billionaires are left-wing. So, there is no ’60s-style talk about the evils of corporations and the supposedly idle rich, none of the old conspiracy theories about Anaconda Copper, ITT, or the Rockefellers.  The corporations are the Left and in service to it. Disney, American Airlines, and Nike are revolutionary icons, always ready to divest, cancel, fire, hire, and propagandize in service to woke commissars. That they are terrified by tiny bullies who have no constituencies is true, but then a Robespierre, Lenin, and Mao had initially no broad support either—at least before each mastered the use of terror and fright. In our anarchy, “dark money” like Mark Zuckerberg’s $419 million cash infusion into the 2020 balloting processes is now suddenly good, given it is almost all leftwing. Democrats outraise Republicans in campaign contributions by anywhere from three- to five-to-one. Bundling is noble. Netflix can buy the brand name of the Obamas for $100 million; George Soros can spend his pocket change of $40 million to elect district attorneys to destroy the law and empower criminals. Jimmy Carter used to be the poor-man idol of the old Democratic Party. Today, there is hardly a Democratic president, ex-president, or presidential candidate who is not a multi-multimillionaire—most by leveraging their heightened political profile. What anarchy we live in when the richest among us are the most radical and wish to destroy for all others what they enjoy.  John Kerry lectures us on climate change from his private jet. Your leaf blower, not his Gulfstream GIV-SP, is the global threat. Al Gore screams about the evils of carbon emissions—after pocketing $100 million by selling his failed and worthless cable station to smoky and sooty Qatar, fronting for the antisemitic Al Jazeera.  The Clintons feel the pain of the poor all the way to their $100 million fortune from shakedown lectures, Wall Street, “consulting,” and “foundation” contributions. Van Jones, CNN expert, the object of Valerie Jarrett’s oohing and awing, famous for his “whitelash” exegeses, and recipient of a $100 million Bezos award, now lectures us that the five rogue black policemen in Memphis, who beat to death a black suspect, are still proof of white racism that accounts for blacks belittling the lives of blacks.  In our present anarchy, we take seriously the lectures on microaggressions from the Duchess of Montecito. The Obamas weigh in on the dangers of climate change and rising seas from their seaside, multimillion-dollar Martha’s Vineyard estate, or Hawaii beachfront mansion that apparently has an invisible climate-change barrier on its beach. Kamala Harris is our border czar who assures us it is “secure,” defined by 5 million illegal entries since she took office. Nancy Pelosi works for the “children” and, after a life in politics, that selflessness ends up worth $100 million from her husband’s insider real estate deals and stock tips. It is almost as if socialist Bernie Sanders owned three homes, or anti-capitalist Elizabeth Warren was once a house flipper. So, the current revolution is anarchy, utter confusion, pure chaos.  Every time one turns on a computer, there will be someone or something somewhere ideologically warping its use. Your vote means nothing when California cannot account for 10 million automatically, computer-guided mailed-out ballots. That state is still in a drought, defined by releasing most of the water to the ocean that the wettest winter in memory produced.  Stanford students talk revolution, Antifa, and Black Lives Matter, and want to forbid the use of “American.” But from the look of their parking lots, they cannot decide whether Lexus, BMW, or Mercedes should be the most preferred campus car. Oprah and Whoopi suffer terribly from white supremacy. Jussie the foot soldier heroically took on one MAGA thug for each of his foot kicks.   “Don’t take off your mask” at a California McDonald’s means the man who ordered that edict is maskless at the French Laundry. “Don’t get your hair done during the lockdown” means the architect of that fiat sneaks around her salon, which she has all to herself. The common denominator to the anarchy? The hardcore Left is your FBI, CIA, and Justice Department all in one. It is Nineteen Eighty-Four. It is our era’s J. P. Morgan.  No wonder we are confused by the establishment anarchists and the anarchy they produce. Tyler Durden Mon, 01/30/2023 - 23:40.....»»

Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: "One For The Record Books" As BofA rates strategist Ralf Preusser writes in his weekly preview, "this week is one for the record book. We have not seen these three major central bank decisions (Fed, BoE, ECB); and key data releases (US ISM, payrolls, and the employment cost index, as well as Euro Area inflation, GDP, and confidence data) in the same week before. Not to mention in combination with month-end flow, which given the incidence of supply in Europe should be sizeable in both EUR and GBP." DB's Jim Reid agrees writing that this week is set to be action packed for scheduled activity: "The main highlight is of course the FOMC conclusion (Wednesday), but the ECB and the BoE (both Thursday) will also likely hike. However, there's plenty of other events on the macro calendar, including the US jobs report on Friday, the flash CPI release from France and Germany (tomorrow), the Euro Area aggregate (Wednesday), regional and Euro Area Q4 GDP (tomorrow), global manufacturing (Wednesday) and services (Friday) PMIs/ISMs, China’s equivalents (tomorrow and Wednesday), US JOLTS (Wednesday), and US ECI (tomorrow)." If that’s not enough, 12% of the S&P 500 by market cap report within a few moments of each other on Thursday night after the bell with Apple, Alphabet and Amazon the highlights in a busy week for earnings. Overall, a whopping 35% of S&P earnings by sector are set to report this week. Going back to central banks, at the time of writing, the Fed is priced to deliver 26 bp, the ECB 50 bp, and the BoE 46 bp. BofA expects both the Fed and the ECB to deliver what is priced in, and sees a 25 bp hike from the BoE – marginally more likely than before after new lows in the PMIs – but risks are clearly skewed towards 50 bp. DB's Reid adds that with a downshift to a 25bps Fed hike already priced in for Wednesday, the meeting will be all about what the Fed tone implies for further meetings. DB still think there'll be two more 25bps hikes after this one partly as the Fed won’t want to see financial conditions ease too much as a result of being too dovish. Assuming central banks deliver on forwards, the key focus for the market will be the accompanying messages. The Fed’s message will likely be strongly influenced by critical data prints between now and Wednesday: PCE, ECI, ISM, JOLTS. And that message in turn risks looking dated already by the end of the week with ISM Services and NFP prints to come, also. Our economists remain hawkish relative to market pricing, expecting a terminal FF target range of 5.00-5.25% and the first cut not until Mar-2024, for which forwards price 100 bp more cuts than our colleagues expect. The last big and very important data point for the Fed before their meeting will be tomorrow’s Q4 ECI release (consensus 1.1% vs. +1.2% previously). Chair Powell is very focused on the relationship between core services ex-shelter inflation and wage pressures, with ECI near the top of their dashboard. JOLTS (Wednesday) is similarly important and may get a reference in the press conference. Staying with labor markets, although Friday's employment report will come after the FOMC, it will as ever be a lightening rod for the market. For the headline, consensus is at +185k vs. +223K last month, and 3.6% for unemployment (DB also at 3.6%, vs. 3.5% last month). All eyes also on average hourly earnings and importantly the work week length which was soft last month hinting at a small crack in the labor market. With regards to the ECB (Thursday), most economists expect another +50bps hike that would take the deposit rate to 2.50%. They also emphasize the importance of communicating expectations for the March meeting since core and underlying inflation remain sticky. The team sees further +50bps and +25bps hikes in March and May, respectively, and a terminal rate of 3.25%. For the BoE decision that same day, DB economists differ with BofA and see another +50bps (vs 25bps) hike that will take the Bank Rate to 4%. That will potentially be the last 'forceful' hike in this tightening cycle. Although their view is that services and wages data warrant such a move, the risks are tilted to the downside. They continue to call for a 4.5% terminal rate as inflation pressures remain resilient. European markets have lots of data to run through ahead of those decisions, with Eurozone Q4 GDP, inflation and labor market data all released early this week. Most of the key data will be out tomorrow, including Q4 GDP data for Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone as well as CPI reports for Germany and France. Eurozone aggregates for the CPI and unemployment rate are released on Wednesday. DB economists expect Eurozone HICP to decline to 8.4% in January (vs 9.2% yoy in December) and continue falling to c.3.5% in Q4 this year. Core inflation is seen staying in a 5.0-5.5% range throughout first half of this year. Finally, let's not forget about earnings, although that's impossible with a whopping 107 S&P companies reporting, including Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Ford, AMD, Amgen, Qualcomm, Starbucks and dozens more. Source: Earnings Whispers Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events Monday January 30 Data: US January Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, UK January Lloyds business barometer, Japan December jobless rate, retail sales, industrial production, Italy December PPI, Eurozone January economic, industrial and services confidence Central banks: ECB's Villeroy speaks Earnings: Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, NXP Semiconductors, Ryanair Other: IMF's world economic outlook update Tuesday January 31 Data: US Q4 employment cost index, January Conference Board consumer confidence, MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed services activity, November FHFA house price index, China January PMIs, December industrial profits, UK December consumer credit, mortgage approvals, M4, Japan January consumer confidence index, December housing starts, Italy Q4 GDP, December unemployment rate, hourly wages, Germany Q4 GDP, January CPI, unemployment change, France Q4 GDP, January CPI, December PPI, consumer spending, Eurozone Q4 GDP, Canada November GDP Central banks: Euro Area bank lending survey Earnings: Samsung Electronics, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, McDonald's, UPS, Amgen, Caterpillar, AMD, Stryker, Mondelez, UBS, Moody's, GM, MSCI, Electronic Arts, Spotify, Snap Wednesday February 1 Data: US January ISM manufacturing index, total vehicle sales, ADP report, December JOLTS report job openings, construction spending, China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan January monetary base, Italy January CPI, manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone January CPI, December unemployment rate, Canada January manufacturing PMI Central banks: Fed decision Earnings: SK Hynix, Novo Nordisk, Meta, Orsted, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Novartis, T-Mobile, Altria, Boston Scientific, GSK, BBVA, Peloton Thursday February 2 Data: US Q4 unit labor costs, nonfarm productivity, December factory orders, initial jobless claims, Germany December trade balance, France December budget balance, Canada December building permits Central banks: ECB, BoE decision Earnings: Apple, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Sony, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mizuho Financial, Eli Lilly, Merck, Roche, Shell, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ConocoPhillips, QUALCOMM, Honeywell, Starbucks, Gilead Sciences, Estee Lauder, JD.com, ICE, Banco Santander, Ford, Ferrari, Infineon Friday February 3 Data: US January jobs report, change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, average hourly earnings, ISM services, China Caixin services PMI, UK January official reserves changes, Italy January services PMI, France December manufacturing and industrial production, Eurozone December PPI Central banks: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Earnings: Sanofi, Regeneron, Intesa Sanpaolo * * * Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the employment cost index on Tuesday, JOLTS job openings and ISM manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment situation report on Friday. The February FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Monday, January 30 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, January (consensus -15.5, last -18.8) Tuesday, January 31 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q4 (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.1%, prior +1.2%): We estimate that the employment cost index (ECI) rose 1.1% in Q4 (qoq sa), which would boost the year-on-year rate by one tenth to 5.1%. Our forecast reflects sequential slowing in the private wages ex-incentives category following net softer readings of production and nonsupervisory average hourly earnings and the Atlanta Fed wage tracker. However, we expect another strong reading for the benefits category as firms expand health insurance and supplemental pay programs in order to attract and retain talent. 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, November (consensus -0.5%, last flat) 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, November (GS -0.6%, consensus -0.7%, last -0.5%): We estimate that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index declined 0.6% in November, following a 0.5% decline in October. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, January (GS 45.1, consensus 45.3, last 45.1): We estimate that the Chicago PMI was unchanged at 45.1 in January, reflecting weaker industrial activity in the US and a continued drag from the covid wave in China. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, January (GS 109.5, consensus 109.0, last 108.3): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index increased to 109.5 in January. Wednesday, February 1 08:15 AM ADP employment report, January (GS +190k, consensus +170k, last +235k): We estimate a 190k rise in ADP payroll employment in January, reflecting strength in Big Data indicators. 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, January final (consensus 46.8, last 46.8) 10:00 AM Construction spending, December (GS +0.2%, consensus flat, last +0.2%): We estimate construction spending increased 0.2% in December. 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, January (GS 48.0, consensus 48.0, last 48.4): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index declined 0.4pt to 48.0 in January, reflecting weaker industrial activity in the US and a continued drag from the covid wave in China. Our GS manufacturing tracker declined 1.3pt to 47.0. 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, December (GS 10,350k, consensus 10,300k, last 10,458k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 10,350k in December. 02:00 PM FOMC statement, January 31 – February 1 meeting: The key question for the February meeting is what the FOMC will signal about further hikes this year. As discussed on our FOMC preview, we expect two additional 25bp hikes in March and May, but fewer might be needed if weak business confidence depresses hiring and investment, or more might be needed if the economy reaccelerates as the impact of past policy tightening fades. Fed officials appear to also expect about two more hikes and will likely tone down the reference to “ongoing” hikes being appropriate in the FOMC statement. 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, January (GS 15.8mn, consensus 14.4mn, last 13.3mn) Thursday, February 2 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q4 preliminary (GS +2.5%, consensus +2.4%, last +0.8%); Unit labor costs, Q4 preliminary (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last +2.4%): We estimate nonfarm productivity growth of +2.5% in Q4 (qoq saar) and unit labor cost—compensation per hour divided by output per hour—growth of +1.5%. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 28 (GS 190k, consensus 200k, last 186k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 21 (consensus 1,684k, last 1,675k): We estimate initial jobless claims increased to 190k in the week ended January 28. 10:00 AM Factory orders, December (GS +2.5%, consensus +2.4%, last -1.8%); Durable goods orders, December final (last +5.6%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, December final (last -0.8%); Core capital goods orders, December final (last -0.2%); Core capital goods shipments, December final (last -0.4%): We estimate that factory orders increased 2.5% in December following a 1.8% decrease in November. Durable goods orders increased 5.6% in the December advance report, reflecting a $15.5bn increase in nondefense aircraft orders, while core capital goods orders decreased 0.2%. Friday, February 3 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, January (GS +300k, consensus +185k, last +223k); Private payroll employment, January (GS +250k, consensus +185k, last +220k); Average hourly earnings (mom), January (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), January (GS +4.4%, consensus +4.3%, last +4.6%); Unemployment rate, January (GS 3.5%, consensus 3.6%, last 3.5%); Labor force participation rate, January (GS 62.3%, consensus 62.3%, last 62.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 300k in January (mom sa). Our well-above-consensus forecast reflects the elevated level of labor demand, the strong recent payroll trend, a 36k boost from the return of striking education workers, strength in Big Data employment indicators, and a boost from favorable seasonal factors that are spuriously fitting to last winter’s Omicron wave. Jobless claims remain extremely low, and while corporate layoff announcements have increased in recent months, only 15% of California layoff filings since December had been implemented by the January payroll period. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%, reflecting a rise in household employment offset by flat-to-up labor force participation rate (we estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at 62.3%). We estimate a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa), reflecting a 0.05pp boost from start-of-year wage hikes and neutral calendar effects. 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, January final (consensus n.a., last 46.2) 10:00 AM ISM services index, January (GS 51.0, consensus 50.5, last 49.2): We estimate that the ISM services index rebounded by 1.8pt to 51.0 in January, reflecting the rise in our survey tracker (+1.0pt to 51.1). Source: DB, Goldman, BofA Tyler Durden Mon, 01/30/2023 - 09:35.....»»

Drought along the Mississippi River may finally ease in February, ending a months-long spree of constantly vacuuming the river bottom for barges. The US Army Corps of Engineers flushes the water jets of a dredge's suction head.USACE The US Army Corps of Engineers has been dredging the Mississippi River 24/7 since July. Drought along the Mississippi has dropped water levels to lows that haven't been seen in a decade. The drought may finally ease in February, ending the need to constantly vacuum the river bottom. The Mississippi River drought was big news when barges got stranded, receding waters revealed new historic artifacts, and river traffic briefly ground to a standstill in October.But the drought didn't end when the channel reopened.Barges have only been able to transport goods down the historically shallow Mississippi because the US Army Corps of Engineers has been constantly vacuuming the bottom of the river."There was a few months of pretty intense management," Lou Dell'Orco, chief of operations and readiness at the USACE St. Louis district, told Insider.USACE maintains a nine-foot-deep channel down the Mississippi River, so that ships and barges can travel freely.A barge tows cargo down the Mississippi River, in Vicksburg, Mississippi during a historic drought.Rogelio V. Solis/AP PhotoTo keep that channel open, Dell'Orco had to bring in extra dredges from other districts.At some points, three vessels were operating 24/7, traveling to chokepoints in the St. Louis area, dropping their suction tubes to the bottom of the river, inhaling material from the riverbed, and transporting it through tubes to designated disposal sites — like "a giant vacuum cleaner," in Dell'Orco's words."Our dredge can fill up an Olympic-sized pool about every hour," he said.It's normal for USACE to keep one dredge at work 24/7 throughout the season, but not two or three, Dell'Orco said.The Dredge Potter, owned and operated by the St. Louis District US Army Corps of Engineers.USACEA four-day break during a cold snap around Christmas gave crews time to do minor maintenance on the vessels. One of the dredges left the district around that time, and the second one left St. Louis last week, Dell'Orco said.More rain and snow have improved conditions on the river, and it looks like the end of the crisis is on the horizon."Commerce is moving with no restrictions relative to drought," Deb Calhoun, senior vice president at the Waterways Council, a group that advocates for modern waterway infrastructure, told Insider in an email. "We will be watching for high water next, which is something that normally happens around this time of year."Dell'Orco expects his teams can stop dredging by the end of January.Drought damage control by the numbers: 3 dredges sucking up the river bottom 24/7The Dredge Potter submerges its suction head and shoots water jets to stir up the sand and gravel on the bottom of the river, which is then vacuumed up and moved through 800 feet of pipe to be discharged somewhere outside the channel.USACESince July, the St. Louis district has dredged about 9 million cubic yards of material from the bottom of the river in about 70 locations, Dell'Orco said. In a normal year, they would only dredge 3 million to 4 million cubic yards.That's more than 2,700 Olympic swimming pools of material removed from the river bottom, compared to just 1,000 Olympic swimming pools in a normal season.This year the dredging season has also stretched at least 100 days longer than normal, Dell'Orco added.He estimates that it costs about $6.5 million to operate two dredges for a month. Throw in a third dredge, and he said USACE is looking at $10 million per month.Climate change could make droughts like this year's more commonA US Army Corps of Engineers dredging vessel powers south down the Mississippi River at the height of the drought.Jeff Roberson/AP PhotoThe last time the Mississippi dropped to such extreme lows and required this much management was in 2012.No research has directly linked these particular drought events to climate change. But scientists are confident that rising temperatures will amplify droughts across much of the US.In this case, a summer of record heat waves baked away some of the river's water, and then a flash drought struck the Ohio and Missouri river valleys, robbing the Mississippi of the snowpack that usually feeds it.It's unclear how climate change will affect the Mississippi River in the long term, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok previously told Insider. But it's possible that the river's drought cycle accelerates.Instead of every 10 to 15 years, for example, drought could strike the river every five to 10 years.Forecast maps show the Mississippi's drought may end soonMuch of the Mississippi River basin is still classified in a drought, including the lower regions that help farmers transport grain for export, according to the US Drought Monitor.That could end in the next few weeks, though. Forecasts from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center offer hope that drought will alleviate across much of the Mississippi River basin in February.The National Weather Service predicts the likely removal of drought in much of the Mississippi River basin in February.NWS Climate Prediction CenterAbove-average precipitation across the northern Midwest could help replenish the river throughout the month. That's when Calhoun and Dell'Orco will be on the lookout for flooding.A rough forecast of precipitation across the US for the month of February 2023.National Weather Service Climate Prediction CenterAfter that, forecasts show there could be no drought conditions across the Mississippi River basin for the first time in months.The National Weather Service's outlook forecasts a likelihood of no drought in most of the Mississippi River basin into spring.NWS Climate Prediction CenterThat would give Dell'Orco's team time to do maintenance on their vessel before the dredging season begins again in July."It's really a shorter maintenance season. You've got March through the middle of June to to get it ready to go," Dell'Orco said.That shouldn't be a problem, he added. But still, "it's a 90-year-old vessel. It needs a lot of TLC."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Flood-Damaged Cars From California Likely To Hit Used Market Soon Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, Recent storms that hammered California have dumped years’ worth of rain on the state, causing widespread flooding, and has prompted warnings that flood-damaged vehicles may hit the used car market soon. In California, 32 trillion gallons of rain and snow fell since Christmas. The water washed out roads, knocked out power, and created mudslides by soaking wildfire-charred hills. It caused damage in 41 of the state’s 58 counties. At least 21 people have died, officials say. After recent flooding hit the Los Angeles area this week, Ivan Drury, director of insights for Edmunds, said that cars that have suffered water damage could be quite unsafe even if they don’t appear so on the surface. “Number one, your electrical system: you’ve got so much electronics on a car, now more so than ever. Technology systems prevent you from getting into an accident, and now you are in more danger,” he told the Los Angeles Times late last week. “And there’s the vehicle physically deteriorating over time.” Drury emphasized that smelling the vehicle is critical. “You had better get your face close to carpet,” he said. “That gross, musty smell,” he added, “that’s a big red flag.” Consumers should take caution when purchasing a used car that was registered in a state or city where there has been recent flooding, Drury said. Kenneth Potiker, owner of San Bernardino-based Riteway Auto Dismantlers, told the paper that he expects to see recently flooded California vehicles to appear at car auctions in the coming weeks. “I’ll buy a few, I’m sure—but I stay away from a lot,” he said, adding that it’s difficult to tell the extent of the damage. But he warned potential buyers that they should avoid such cars.  “I would tell them not to buy a car like that—that would be the best advice,” he said. “If it floods inside a car, water damage is one of the worst types of damage.” Insurance companies say that many flooded vehicles often get totaled, meaning that the cost of the repair work is equal or greater to the value of the car. According to the Insurance Information Institute, some flood-damaged cars are issued a salvage title, which can alert people and companies to possible damage. “By definition, a flood vehicle has been completely or partially submerged in water to the extent that its body, engine, transmission or other mechanical component parts have been damaged,” it says. “If the vehicle is so damaged that it is no longer operable, the driver’s insurance company settles the claim by buying the vehicle and selling it as a ‘salvage’ at an auto auction.” But the Institute warns that “dishonest and unscrupulous car dealers” can then purchase the vehicles, clean them, but it leaves “hidden flood damage.” Those dealers then take the cars to states that weren’t impacted by the storm before selling them as used cars to unsuspecting buyers. A woman waits for her husband at their front porch to be rescued from their flooded home in Brentwood, Calif., on Monday, Jan. 16, 2023. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group via AP) And those “dishonest dealers will not disclose the damage on the vehicle’s title as they are required, which is a crime called ‘title washing,'” says the Institute. “The vehicles are then sold with the hidden damage.” “It’s very easy for a professional to clean up a vehicle and make it look new, when, in fact, the electronics and computers are in really bad shape,” Jack Gillis, chairman of the board of directors for the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety, told KOMO News. “This can present a safety hazard.” After Hurricane Ian hammered Florida last year, vehicle data company Carfax warned consumers about purchasing used vehicles that may have water damage. At the time, it estimated that more than 350,000 vehicles might have been damaged by Ian’s flooding. “We are seeing these flooded cars show up all around the country, putting unsuspecting buyers at risk,” Emilie Voss, a Carfax spokeswoman, said in a statement last year about Ian’s aftermath. “Cosmetically these cars might look great, but if you don’t know what to look for, it’s nearly impossible to tell they are literally rotting from the inside out.” From Dec. 26 to Jan. 17, California was deluged by 11.47 inches of rain and snow on average across the state, according to the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center, with some reports of up to 15 feet of snow in the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Late last week, meanwhile, President Joe Biden toured a California beach town to survey damage that was done by the recent storms. California has been hit by nine atmospheric rivers since late December. The storms have relented in recent days. Forecasters say that a dry period will envelop much of the state for the time being. Tyler Durden Tue, 01/24/2023 - 18:25.....»»

Stretching 470 miles from Southern Alaska to the northern wilderness, the Alaska Railroad is considered one of the most scenic train rides in the US. Conductor and clerk welcome passengers aboard an Alaska Railroad train.John Greim/LightRocket via Getty Images The Alaska Railroad was completed three decades before Alaska became a state. It stretches from Seward to Fairbanks, the northernmost passenger train station in North America. With its glass dome and views, it's considered one of the most scenic train rides in the US. Known as the "backbone of the Last Frontier," the Alaska Railroad rolls its way from the coastal communities of Southern Alaska, 470 miles into the state's wilderness. This year, it's turning 100 years old.An Alaska Railroad train in spring.Glenn Aronwits/Alaska RailroadThe railroad has been around longer than Alaska has been a state. President Warren G. Harding celebrated the completion of the Alaska Railroad's main track in July of 1923, driving a "golden spike" in the ground at Nenana.President Warren Harding driving the last spike on Alaskan Railroad at Tanana River.Library of CongressToday, the route carries both freight and passengers, being one of the few mixed trains in the US.Conductor and clerk welcome passengers aboard an Alaska Railroad train.John Greim/LightRocket via Getty ImagesA ride in "Adventure class" during high season costs up to $199 from Seward, where the railroad begins, to Anchorage. Going north from there will run you another $269 for 12 hours of travel.Adventure class seating on an Alaska Railroad train.Glenn Aronwits/Alaska RailroadFor a more luxurious experience, passengers can upgrade to the "Goldstar service," which comes with an upper-deck seat under a glass dome ceiling and meals in the dining car. These tickets run $489 from Anchorage to Fairbanks, including three meals, from May to September.GoldStar service seating on an Alaska Railroad train.Glenn Aronwits/Alaska RailroadAmong the breathtaking views is Denali, North America's tallest peak at 20,310 feet above sea level.Denali Mountain, Alaska.Sherri Cassel/iStock/Getty Images PlusThe menu includes local delicacies, like reindeer sausages and reindeer bolognese sauce, according to charmed passengers' reports.Elk sausages for breakfast included in the Alaska Railroad's GoldStar service.Glenn Aronwits/Alaska RailroadSpeaking of elks and moose, the animals are a common sight from the trains' passengers' windows and in between the tracks. To keep them off the tracks, Alaska Railroad uses a pilot car in front of the train. Employees also shoot shotgun shells to scare them away.Moose walking between railway tracks in Alaska.Dieter Hopf/imageBROKER via Getty ImagesIn the winter, only two lines run: The Hurricane Turn, from Anchorage to Hurricane, and the Aurora, from Anchorage to Fairbanks. Those trains operate with flagstop service, in which passengers can wave the train down to stop from almost any spot along the tracks and hop on, allowing people to reach otherwise inaccessible areas.Alaska Railroad's Aurora Winter Train.Justin Low/Alaska RailroadHeavy snowfall can make crossing Alaska during winter quite a feat, even for trains. In January, an avalanche caused the derailment of two locomotives of a freight train. It took more than two days for the railroad's workers to get the track back in business.An avalanche clean-up on the Alaska Railroad's track.Alaska RailroadRotary snow plows, which kind of look like the sandworms in director Denis Villeneuve's adaptation of Dune, are among the many ways the Alaska Railroads fights its way through heavy snowfall. Plows like these have been used since the 1890s.Historic Alaska Railroad's snow blower.Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty ImagesAlaska's economic development is closely tied to railroads. Anchorage, its largest city, got its start in 1914 as the railroad's headquarters, which is still housed there.Alaska Railroad Corporation building in Anchorage, Alaska.John Greim/LightRocket via Getty ImagesAlaska Railroad's trains travel all the way north to Fairbanks, which is considered the northernmost passenger train station in North America.Fairbanks Alaska train station in winter.sarkophoto/iStock/Getty Images PlusTo get to Denali National Park, trains cross a scenic bridge spanning Hurricane Gulch. It was built using more than 100,000 rivets, is 915 feet long, and 296 feet high.Alaska Railroad's Denali Star Train on the Hurricane Gulch Bridge.John Combs/Alaska RailroadThanks to their awe-inducing views — of 3,000-foot mountains towering over the ocean, wildlife, and backcountry wilderness — Alaska Railroad's trains are regularly included among the most beautiful train rides in America, alongside Amtrak's Coast Starlight from Seattle to Los Angeles and the Grand Canyon Railway.Alaska Railroad's Discovery Train at sunset.Ian Merculieff/Alaska RailroadRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

California Drought Eases As Reservoir Levels Rise And Snowpack Booms California has experienced water shortages in recent years due to a combination of factors, including drought and increased demand. A parade of storms has eased a historic water crisis, replenishing reservoirs and increasing snowpack.  The latest data from the official website of the State of California shows 97% of major reservoir levels are at normal levels for this time of year. This is great news following last summer when reservoir levels were dangerously low.  Here's a map of the major reservoirs. Most are at average levels, except for a few.  Nearly a month of storms has also boosted the state's vital snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. State data shows statewide snowpack levels are 126% above average levels for this time of year. We recently pointed out snowpack levels were at their highest in four decades.  Only a small portion of California remained in extreme drought. The heavy rains and snow have eased drought conditions.  The storms were part of a moisture conveyor belt over the Pacific Ocean called atmospheric rivers. This resulted in one of the wettest California winters on record.  Much of California's water comes from reservoirs and snowpacks. The deluge of storms has prevented the price of water trading on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index from topping new highs. The contract currently trades at $1,020 an acre-foot, about 20% lower from the top of $1,282 recorded in September of last year.  The rain and snow have been "very exciting," Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist at the University of California, Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, told CNN, though he remained "cautiously optimistic" for this summer.  Tyler Durden Sun, 01/22/2023 - 22:00.....»»

The Dangerous Fantasy Of Scotland's Net-Zero Energy Transition Authored by Richard Lyon via DailySceptic.org, Suppose that Scotland’s CO2 emissions fell tomorrow to zero, i.e., that, at midnight, the country ceased to exist. Then according to the “Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change” (MAGICC), based on the latest IPCC climate models, the reduction in the Earth’s temperature in 2100 would be…undetectable. Motivated by the moral necessity and urgency of this goal, the Scottish Government is proposing a novel energy policy – its “Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan”. This article reviews its major themes and their implications, and considers briefly the probability of success of the Scottish Government implementing it. In 2022, due to an insufficient quantity of wind and sun, Scotland’s current collection of wind and solar energy-scavenging devices failed to generate about 70% of their nameplate capacity. Recent exhaustive statistical and econometric analysis of wind generation in Scotland by Edinburgh University shows that it is uneconomic and destined for taxpayer bailout. Under the Scottish Government’s novel energy strategy, wind and solar energy-scavenging devices are to be greatly expanded. Hydrogen, an energy carrier that squanders in waste-heat a gigawatt of power generation for every gigawatt it carries, is elevated in the Scottish Government’s understanding of energy to the category of a fuel, and also greatly expanded. Hydrocarbon and nuclear – actual fuels – provide the energy to manufacture and endlessly replace wind turbines and solar panels. They also, in Scotland, provide the power sources that run under all conditions to ensure continuity of energy supply during Scotland’s frequent sunless and windless conditions. These are to be discontinued. Like all advanced economies, Scotland cannot tolerate even a small measure of power supply fluctuation. Without firm dispatchable thermal standby generation capacity to smooth supply fluctuation, the eventual daily around 40GW amplitude power fluctuation resulting from the proposed expansion of weather-dependent electrical generation must be adapted for use in some other way. This will be provided by some form of 180-plus day, grid-scale electricity storage – a technical challenge for which no precedent exists, and therefore no cost estimate is available. Grid scale battery storage technology doesn’t exist. The Scottish Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan imagines that it will be developed. Converting surplus energy to hydrogen for storage and use at grid scale is unprecedented, and fraught with risk. Fifty per cent of the proposed new intermittent generation capacity, installed at a capital cost of around £26 billion, is to be wasted in the conversion process. Hydrogen embrittles pipework, renders conventional valves ineffective and, unlike domestic gas, self-ignites under catastrophic decompression. Quantifying the risks of transporting it in bulk on Scottish roads and deploying it as a substitute for domestic gas in Scotland’s densely populated housing estates might be an exciting 10-year research project at the U.K. Government’s Spadeadam industrial hazard testing facility (“the remoteness of the area is key to their operations” – Wikipedia). But, informed by what the Scottish Government claims is the need for “the fastest possible” transition, it prefers to bypass thorough safety testing, and to impose live hydrogen trials on Scotland’s citizens. Hydrocarbon gas is to be phased out of Scottish homes from 2030. Energy densities in energy storage sites located next to Scotland’s towns and cities required by the Scottish Government’s reckless abandonment of thermal standby generation capacity will be measured in millions of tonnes of TNT – a risk for which 12-foot thick reinforced concrete containment domes are installed around nuclear facilities to manage. These risks are entirely unrecognised by Scotland’s current planning processes (or citizens). The cost of adaptive storage, the cost of the new transmission and distribution infrastructure required by dramatically increased electrification of Scotland’s relatively sparsely populated areas, and the cost of Carbon Capture, are not factored into current estimates of Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE). These are vast. Grid-scale battery storage, for example, has an implied cost measured in trillions of pounds, and drives LCOE from £50/MWh to over £600/MWh. Apparently unaware of the role of nuclear and gas in maintaining continuity of supply, and the prohibitive cost of electricity storage as a substitute, the Scottish Government confidently demands that the U.K. Government “break the link between the price of electricity and the cost of gas to help realise the benefits of the low costs [sic] of renewable electricity”. The policy proposal cites a number of other benefits that it thinks will accrue in addition to the negligible reduction in the Earth’s temperature. Electric vehicles can’t plough snow or fields, harvest corn, empty buckets, excavate ore, raise wind-turbine masts, or perform any other economic task for which ‘grunt’ is required. Notwithstanding, from 2030, diesel and petrol engines will be prohibited. Car kilometers are to be “reduced” – possibly by fining us if we travel from our home more than a permitted distance. A child in the Democratic Republic of Congo mining the cobalt needed for the Scottish Government’s Just Transition to ‘clean energy’ The Scottish Government will impose catastrophic environmental damage on the non-OECD countries where millions of tonnes of toxic water and ores are processed to manufacture the EV batteries it is mandating. It will overlook the human rights violations endemic to China’s ‘clean energy industry’. These will have the benefit of promoting what it calls “A Just Transition” – supposedly, a socialist framework for ensuring “a fairer, greener future for all”. Our security of supply is to be further enhanced by transferring energy generation from domestically produced oil and gas to mechanically unreliable, weather-dependent energy-scavenging devices containing millions of points of failure that are contingent on the supply of rare resources controlled by China – which the U.S. states it will declare war on if it invades Taiwan. These weather-dependent energy-scavenging devices require oil for, amongst many other things, the manufacture of their exotic advanced materials. A leading energy consultancy records the collapse in 2020 to an 80-year low of replacement oil discovery volumes, and estimates that Western oil firms now have around 15 years of remaining economic oil reserves. It is under these circumstances that the Scottish Government is further enhancing the security of Scotland’s energy supply by discontinuing onshore and offshore conventional and unconventional oil and gas exploration. To reinforce this enhancement, noting “the damage done by the deindustrialisation of central belt communities in the 1980s”, the Scottish Government is irreversibly disbanding the North East’s oil and gas industry communities and, with them, their 50 years of institutional knowledge of oil and gas operations. These will be replaced with communities based on livelihoods sustained by a “clean energy industry”. The growth of this imaginary industry has been funded with the imaginary capital (a.k.a. “quantitative easing”) excreted in the response – ironically – to the energy contraction that triggered the ongoing 2008 Great Financial Crash. During this time, U.K. national debt has risen from 60% to over 100% of Gross Domestic Product, exceeded only by the public sector pension deficit (a proxy for the replacement of real industries in the global economy by imaginary ones), which has risen to more than £2 trillion. As evidence of the sustainability of the policy of funding imaginary industries through the indefinite expansion of imaginary capital (for which, like much of this policy, no precedent exists in human history), the Scottish Government informs us that it has already allocated £5 billion of its record budget deficit to what it refers to as “the Net Zero Economy”. Winter excess death in the UK’s cold Northern European climate is already around 25,000 a year. Any prolonged interruption of winter energy supply created by the failure of this policy, or further escalation of cost, will plausibly result in the deaths of thousands more of our most vulnerable fellow citizens. The magnitude and uncertainty of the implied costs, coupled to the scale of the energy contraction that this policy deliberately seeks to accelerate, could trigger the collapse of our financial system. Irreversible impairment of either our energy or financial systems would have a catastrophic impact on the welfare of Scotland’s citizens. Yet few have expressed any desire, much less informed consent, for risk on the scale proposed for such little benefit. Yet the project, representing a scope of unprecedented scale, cost, pace and technical uncertainty, will be overseen by a Government that is currently struggling to procure two relatively modest ferries for less than the cost that other governments can procure 34 ferries – again, ironically due in large part to cost overruns associated with the attempt to employ novel technologies to reduce CO2 emissions. As evidence of the extent to which the Scottish Government and its advisers have become unmoored from physical reality by the climate catastrophe hypothesis, it’s a document that is fascinating to read, and alarming to contemplate. After reflecting on it, you may care to offer your feedback, either to the department that compiled it, or your political representative, or on social media. Tyler Durden Sun, 01/22/2023 - 07:35.....»»

The Mainstream Media Admits That We Are Facing "The Worst Food Crisis In Modern History" Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, People on the other side of the planet are dropping dead from starvation right now, but most people don’t even realize that this is happening.  Unfortunately, most people just assume that everything is fine and dandy.  If you are one of those people that believe that everything is just wonderful, I would encourage you to pay close attention to the details that I am about to share with you.  Global hunger is rapidly spreading, and that is because global food supplies have been getting tighter and tighter.  If current trends continue, we could potentially be facing a nightmare scenario before this calendar year is over. Pakistan is not one of the poorest nations in the world, but the lack of affordable food is starting to cause panic inside that country.  The following comes from Time Magazine… Last Saturday in Mirpur Khas, a city in Pakistan’s Sindh province, hundreds of people lined up for hours outside a park to buy subsidized wheat flour, offered for 65 rupees a kilogram instead of the current, inflated rate of about 140 to 160 rupees. When a few trucks arrived, the crowd surged forward, leaving several injured. One man, Harsingh Kolhi, who was there to bring a five kg bag of flour home for his wife and children, was crushed and killed in the chaos. We are seeing similar things happen all over the planet. Just because you still may have enough food to eat doesn’t mean that everybody else is okay. In fact, things have already gotten so bad that even CNN is admitting that we are facing “the worst food crisis in modern history”… Yet the world is still in the grips of the worst food crisis in modern history, as Russia’s war in Ukraine shakes global agricultural systems already grappling with the effects of extreme weather and the pandemic. Market conditions may have improved in recent months, but experts do not expect imminent relief. That means more pain for vulnerable communities already struggling with hunger. It also boosts the risk of starvation and famine in countries such as Somalia, which is contending with what the United Nations describes as a “catastrophic” food emergency. Sadly, it isn’t just in Somalia where the food crisis has reached “catastrophic” proportions. According to Reuters, the entire continent is now dealing with the worst food crisis that Africa “has ever seen”… Across Africa, from east to west, people are experiencing a food crisis that is bigger and more complex than the continent has ever seen, say diplomats and humanitarian workers. Please go back and read that statement again. Do you remember all those years when Sally Struthers was begging us to feed the starving children in Africa? Well, the truth is that conditions are now far worse than when she was making those commercials. At one hospital in Somalia, grieving mothers are regularly bringing in very young children that have literally starved to death… “Sometimes mothers bring us dead children,” said Farhia Moahmud Jama, head nurse at the paediatric emergency unit. “And they don’t know they’re dead.” Weakened by hunger, camp residents are vulnerable to disease and people are dying due to a lack of food, said Nadifa Hussein Mohamed, who managed the camp where Isak’s family initially stayed. “Maybe the whole world is hungry and donors are bankrupt, I don’t know,” she said. “But we’re calling out for help, and we do not see relief.” UN officials are doing what they can to help, but the truth is that they are being absolutely overwhelmed by the scope of this crisis. Over the past 12 months, the number of Africans that are dealing with “acute food insecurity” has absolutely exploded… The number of East Africans experiencing acute food insecurity – when a lack of food puts lives or livelihoods in immediate danger – has spiked by 60% in just the last year, and by nearly 40% in West Africa, according to the World Food Programme (WFP). Sadly, a lot of Americans are simply not going to care about what is going on over there as long as we have enough food over here. Of course food supplies continue to get tighter on our side of the planet as well. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, our corn harvest this year was the smallest in 15 years… Last year was a bad year for corn — the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report shows drought conditions and extreme weather wreaked havoc on croplands. USDA unexpectedly slashed its outlook for domestic corn production amid a severe drought across the western farm belt. Farmers in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas were forced to abandon drought-plagued fields. The agency estimated farmers harvested 79.2 million acres, a decline of 1.6 million acres versus the previous estimate — the smallest acres harvest since 2008. That wouldn’t be so bad if our population was still the same size that it was back in 2008. Other harvests have been extremely disappointing too, and that is one of the factors that has been steadily driving up food prices. At this point, the average U.S. household is spending 72 more dollars on food per month than it was at this same time a year ago… As inflation continues to decimate the budgets of American families, the December report from Moody’s Analytics showed that families are spending an estimated $72 more on food per month than they were a year ago. That figure is pulled out of a report that says the typical US household is shelling out $371 on goods and services more than they were a year ago. In particular, the price of eggs has gone completely nuts. I recently came across an article about one small business owner that is now paying three times as much for eggs as she once did… It just seems like the cost of everything is going up these days and that includes egg prices, which are affecting local businesses. “We used to buy 15 dozen eggs from Sam’s for 23 dollars. They are now 68 dollars,” said Cindy Gutierrez, the owner of Creative Cakes. “Now it’s about 63-ish for 15 dozen and it’s also hard to get 15 dozen,” said Caitlyn Wallace, the owner of Catie Pies. The prices for eggs have surged three times their original price. According to the consumer price index, egg prices increased by 10% in October 2022 and that increase has continued to rise. This is causing a domino effect for restaurants, businesses, and bakeries who use eggs. Economic conditions are changing so rapidly now, and nothing will ever be quite the same again. As we move forward, the widespread use of “beetleburgers” is one of the “solutions” that the global elite are starting to push… Beetleburgers could soon be helping to feed the world, according to new research. The creepy crawlers’ larvae — better known as mealworms — could act as a meat alternative to alleviate hunger worldwide. The process uses a fraction of the land and water and emits a smaller carbon footprint in comparison of traditional farming. To make this a reality, French biotech company Ynsect is planning a global network of insect farms, including nurseries and slaughterhouses. A pilot plant has already been been set up at Dole in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comte region of France. Doesn’t that sound yummy? Of course these “beetleburgers” will just be a drop in the bucket. No matter what the global elite try, they will not be able to stop “the worst food crisis in modern history” from getting a whole lot worse. So I would encourage you to stock up while you still can. Global food supplies are getting a little bit tighter with each passing day, and I have a feeling that 2023 will have lots of “unexpected surprises” for all of us. *  *  * It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon. Tyler Durden Sat, 01/21/2023 - 08:10.....»»

Do you have a rental property? Are you looking for ways to make it more attractive to tenants who might have many options in your community, city, or state? One way to do so is by offering more value for the rent they pay — and you can achieve this with smart home technology. According to […] Do you have a rental property? Are you looking for ways to make it more attractive to tenants who might have many options in your community, city, or state? One way to do so is by offering more value for the rent they pay — and you can achieve this with smart home technology. According to one survey, up to 57.4 million households in the United States are actively using smart home devices this year. This is up 6.7% compared to 2021, when the tally of households actively using smart home technology was 53.8 million. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   If you want to make your rental property a more attractive option for tenants, include smart home technology. Keep reading to see some smart home options worth considering. Smart Home Technology Investment Options Smart Thermostat If your tenants pay for utilities, they'll be interested in units with smart thermostats. If they are away for large chunks of the day, they can set their smart thermostats so that the temperature isn't higher or lower than it needs to be. When they're away at work during the winter, they can program the smart thermostat so that the temperature isn't any warmer than it needs to be. It'll be possible to program it so that the temperature rises when they return from work. Energy Star notes that people can save about $50 annually using their smart thermostats. That might not sound like a whole lot. But with inflation driving up the cost of living, every saving opportunity counts. The tenants for your rental unit will appreciate being able to save money. Video Doorbell Another smart home technology to consider for your rental unit is a video doorbell. Occupants will have an extra layer of security since they'll be able to check who is at the door without having to walk to the door physically. Whether they're in bed, in the living room, in the kitchen, or away from the rental unit, they'll be able to check who is at the door. A video doorbell can also deter would-be crooks from burglary attempts. Thieves prefer easy targets, so seeing a video doorbell that can capture them in the act is enough to dissuade most bad actors. Equipping your rental unit with a video camera could appeal to tenants. They'll feel safer, which could be enough to differentiate your rental property from other properties. Smart Home Security System It's always been a good idea to install a sound home security system. But a smart home security system is another matter entirely. Such a setup will include various physical electronic components that work together to safeguard your rental property. It can consist of the following: Smart security cameras Motion sensors that detect motion and send notifications if motion is detected Glass break sensors that will send alerts if glass is broken Entry sensors to detect whenever someone enters or leaves the rental unit An alarm to warn of any potential danger and potentially frighten off crooks Smart Wireless Camera It's essential to remember that wireless cameras can come as part of a complete home security system or as a stand-alone option without the alarm, the keypad, and other components. Sometimes wireless cameras can simply be about providing peace of mind for tenants. So, if they want to check the house's perimeter without going outside at night, they can do so via wireless cameras. All they'll need is access to their computer, tablet, or laptop. Another reason to consider installing wireless cameras is if your tenants have pets. If your tenants are out and about, they might take comfort in being able to check in on their pets. Wireless cameras ensure that they can check in from wherever they are. Furthermore, installing wireless cameras without all the other components will be a more cost-effective option. Voice-Controlled Smart Speaker Did you know that the worldwide smart speaker market is expected to grow to $6.5 billion this year and, according to IMARC Group, could skyrocket to $27.5 billion by 2028? According to the research firm, smart speakers refer to wireless, internet-enabled devices that are equipped with integrated voice assistants that help people with everyday tasks. Perhaps you've already used one. They have voice recognition technology, so they decipher and respond to voice commands. For instance, if you have the Amazon Echo Dot voice-controlled smart speaker with the Alexa voice assistant, you can ask something like the following: "Alexa, what's the forecast for tomorrow?" The voice assistant will then respond with the weather forecast for your area. But voice assistants don't just provide weather updates, as useful as that can be. They can also play music, stream live news, set alarms, answer questions, read e-books, set reminders and timers, and more. You can also use a voice-controlled smart speaker, according to IMARC, for GPS navigation and even to control smart home devices. So, the use cases are many. Consider voice-controlled smart speakers if you want to offer tenants a tool that will offer convenience and functionality. They're relatively inexpensive and do provide value. All you need is internet access to offer tenants the benefits of voice-control smart speakers. Smart Smoke Detector Whether it's your primary residence or a rental property, you'll want to protect your investment. One way you can do so is by installing smart smoke alarms. It's certainly a good idea to install them in your rental units. When smart smoke alarms detect smoke or carbon monoxide, they can send alerts to your tenants' smartphones. Tenants will also be able to control smart smoke alarms remotely. It can be a game-changer by providing an extra layer of security for tenants and their pets, if you allow pets in your investment properties. Safety should be a priority. And tools like smart smoke detectors can help protect your tenants and your rental properties as well. Smart Plug Another smart feature for your rental properties is a smart plug. When you install smart plugs in your rental units, you'll transform the way tenants interact with their appliances, even if they're someplace other than home. Smart plugs are plugged into regular electrical outlets. They're then controlled by apps that tenants can use to control their appliances or anything else plugged into the smart plug. So, if they have a standing lamp plugged into one, they can have it automatically switch itself on at night or off in the morning. That's not only about convenience; it's also about saving money. Smart plugs can help tenants be more responsible about their energy consumption. They can choose when and how long appliances or plug-in lamps are on. If tenants are responsible for their own utilities, then offering smart plugs will be an even more appreciated feature. If you are responsible, then you'll do the saving. But when you consider how cost-effective smart plugs are, you'll realize they're worth buying. Smart Lightbulb Smart bulbs are easy to install. In fact, you can install them the same way you would install any traditional lightbulb. So, it's one of the more cost-effective smart home upgrades you can pursue for your rental properties. If you do some research, you'll find that smart bulbs can last for 25,000+ hours of use. That's a long time by any stretch of the imagination. This means your tenants will save money over the long run if you install smart bulbs. These options are also better for the environment since they don't have mercury, as do fluorescent bulbs. If you can save money while doing the best thing for the environment, that's a win-win. Just keep in mind that tenants will need to download an app to use smart bulbs. Once they have it on their smartphones or tablets, they'll be able to operate the smart bulbs whether they're at home or on the road.   Smart Garage Opener If you rent out a home with a garage, there's a good chance that a garage opener is already in place. But is it a smart garage opener? If it's not, it's worth upgrading to get the features that come with a smart garage opener. A smart garage opener won't just open and close your garage door. Instead, the unit will send activity alerts directly to your tenant's smartphone. The tenant will also be able to determine who can have access to the garage. A smart garage opener can also alert your tenant if the garage door is inadvertently left open. That can be a game-changer since leaving a garage door open by mistake can lead to problems like theft or even worse. And That's Not All… It's possible to get many other features as part of a smart home security system. Your tenants can keep tabs on what's going on inside and outside their rental units no matter where they are. They can set things up so they're alerted if there's a problem. If a service provider monitors the system, then the authorities can be dispatched as required. These are some of the things you do to make your investment property more attractive to renters. If you want more tips on how to offer people what they want as a property owner, consult with a property manager experienced at helping property owners to find suitable tenants. The right property manager can improve the investment property ownership experience with smart home technology. You'll get help with necessary maintenance and repairs, updating your rental property so it's competitive in the rental market, finding suitable tenants, and more. Article by Deanna Ritchie, ReadWrite.....»»